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Park Factors Newsbeat

Thursday, June 03, 2021

Examining Home Run Rates by Ballpark

What’s interesting to note here is that 25 of the 28 parks listed experienced some level of decrease in home run rate, which aligns with the broader trend that I broke down about last month. It is also interesting that Oracle Park in San Francisco has seen a 15.5-point bump in home run rate, likely due to the Giants moving their fences in for the 2020 season. If we’re comparing 2019 to ’21 data, that change would explain the large positive difference in home run rate there.

On the other end of the spectrum, look at Oakland, which saw a drop of almost 32 points in home run rate on these “wall-scrapers.”...

Ultimately, the answer to why certain parks might have been more impacted by the new run environment than others is difficult to unpack. As mentioned, we don’t know for sure which parks added the humidor. Additionally, the interaction between outfield space and outfield wall height may also play a role, as could climate and, more specifically, weather so far this season. And, as always, there’s definitely randomness in here as well. But perhaps more than understanding why we’re seeing such significant changes at the ballpark level, it’s first important to acknowledge that some huge differences exist in how the baseball (and potential humidor) is affecting how the ball flies in each environment.

 

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 03, 2021 at 05:01 PM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: park factors

Friday, April 30, 2021

Introducing Statcast Park Factors

There’s lots in there, so let me pick out a few things. At Great American Ballpark, 2019-2021 there were 375 HR hit. In Reds games away from GABP, there were 293 HR hit. That’s a nominal factor of 375/293 = 1.28 times, or 128 in the index=100 parlance. Now, we apply additional adjustments for the Reds batters and pitchers. While we did limit the look at Reds games at GABP and away from GABP, you can still get disproportionate usage of players. Votto may play all the time at home and away, but Luis Castillo may not. In addition, even if Votto plays all the time home/away, he may not face the same distribution of LHP/RHP. And naturally, we’d base it on a per plate appearance basis. Once we account for all that, the three-year rolling average for GABP HR is 133.

And it’s not just HR. Want to know the toughest place to strikeout? That’s Coors and Kauffman. High elevation parks will do that for you. Want to know the three year rolling park factors for Fenway for all the metrics going back to 2001? That’s there too.

We also show the impact of parks on HR-type of distances. We looked at all batted balls hit at 24 to 32 degrees, launched at 90+ mph. We then standardized them to 28 degrees, 100mph, at 74 degrees F, 500 feet of elevation. We can therefore account for a naive effect of temperature and elevation on each park. In addition, dome/roof parks have a bit better carry, so we adjust for that too. Everything else that is unaccounted for lands in a “environment” bucket, which could be the effect of wind (think Wrigley) or the effect of humidity at that park (over and above temperature and elevation) or simply Random Variation (especially if you are going to look at 2021 with so few games played).

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 10:35 AM | 1 comment(s)
  Beats: park factors

 

 

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