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Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Editor - Baseball Primer


Predictions Newsbeat

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Which MLB Teams Will Disappoint in 2020?

Every year features its share of surprise teams. Last year the Twins won 103 games, up from 78 the season before. On the flip side, the defending world champion Red Sox dipped from 108 wins in 2018 to a playoff-less, 84-win season in 2019. With that example in mind, which team is going to surprise in all the wrong ways this year? SI’s MLB staff weighs in

Riffing off of this: what differences would be present if this wasn’t just based on how the team will perform compared to last year, but looked at all the ways teams can disappoint us?

QLE Posted: February 25, 2020 at 12:54 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: disappointment, predictions, teams

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Let’s Get the Rockies to 94 Wins

Last week, Rockies owner Dick Monfort made headlines by predicting a rock-solid 94 wins for his franchise this season. It seemed wildly optimistic; the team won 71 games in 2019 and didn’t make any major changes this offseason. We project them to be one of the worst four teams in the National League, not one of the best four.

But Monfort used interpolation, as he was quick to point out. And we can’t simply ignore something with math behind it. So I’m taking out a special, purpose-built Rockies model to investigate the team: M.O.n.F.O.R.T., or the Model for Official non-Fake Obvious Rockies Truths.

First things first, let’s establish a baseline. On our Depth Charts page, you can see FanGraphs’ projected winning percentage for each 2020 club against neutral opponents. This only uses Steamer projections at the moment, but it will soon fold in ZiPS. The Rockies are projected for a .462 winning percentage.

That sounds bad, but it doesn’t consider their opponents. The Rockies play the AL Central in interleague play, which helps. And they play the Marlins seven times, but the Cardinals and Cubs only six. Do these small schedule quirks help them? Nope! In aggregate, we expect Rockies opponents to have a .501 winning percentage. What you see is what you get, in essence; we have the Rockies down for around 74.5 wins. With that baseline in mind, let’s start using M.O.n.F.O.R.T.’s findings to boost the Rockies.

An effort to find meaning in woo.


QLE Posted: February 11, 2020 at 01:26 AM | 28 comment(s)
  Beats: dick monfort, predictions, rockies, wins

Saturday, February 01, 2020

Which Surprise Team Will Crash the Playoffs in 2020?

It’s never too early to look ahead to October, right? Every season features a handful of surprise teams, and inevitably some will make the postseason, even in today’s tank-tastic MLB world.

Last year the Twins, Rays, Nationals and Cardinals made the playoffs despite missing them the year before. So who’s crashing the postseason party in 2020?

So, what teams do you think could make the playoffs that didn’t last year?


QLE Posted: February 01, 2020 at 01:08 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: playoffs, predictions

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Setting sights on spring training, Jose Altuve confident embattled Astros will ‘be in World Series’

HOUSTON—A week filled with fines, suspensions, firings and impromptu news conferences as a result of their sign-stealing scandal ended awkwardly in Houston on Saturday, with the Astros meeting and greeting fans and media at their annual winter festival.

Two of the team’s biggest stars—Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman—took center stage: one for his unfazed confidence, the other for his terse tone and tenor.

Houston second baseman Jose Altuve said the Astros will be in the World Series again, while pushing back on the idea that the team’s cheating went beyond the sign-stealing detailed in MLB’s report earlier this week.

“Believe me, in the end of the year, everything will be fine,” he said. “We’re going to be in the World Series again. People don’t believe it, we will. We will. We made it last year, we were one game away of winning it all.”

Well, there’s no way this is going to backfire…..


QLE Posted: January 19, 2020 at 12:21 AM | 30 comment(s)
  Beats: alex bregman, famous last words, jose altuve, predictions

Saturday, January 04, 2020

Predicting the 2020s for Each of the 30 MLB Teams

After spending most of the last few weeks writing about baseball in the 2010s, it’s time to divert our attention to the decade ahead of us. It’s hard to know what’s to come in baseball. Just look at all that changed in our game over the last 10 years. Many times, the most logical expectations look absurd in retrospect, and the most unlikely of guesses come true. But that’s part of the fun of making predictions.

We’ve made one prediction for each of the 30 MLB teams in the 2020s. Bookmark this bad boy and in 10 years tell us just how wrong we were. I’m sure we’ll appreciate it.

Who will be champions in the sport? Who won’t be? Who will experience utterly surreal happenings?


QLE Posted: January 04, 2020 at 01:27 AM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: predictions

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Predicting the Next 10 World Series Winners

Take a break from reflections on the end of this decade to look ahead at predictions for the next one. Here are our picks for the winners of the next 10 World Series (to be taken with as many grains of salt as are required to enjoy anything looking a decade ahead with a postseason as capricious as baseball’s, of course).

Goofy, yes- but no more so than a lot of predictions meant to be taken more seriously…..


QLE Posted: December 31, 2019 at 12:41 AM | 6 comment(s)
  Beats: predictions, world series champions, world series predictions

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Way-too-early division predictions for 2020

When we make our preseason division picks, we expose ourselves to the possibility that injury strife and baseball’s general propensity toward the unexpected will render our choices fruitless, pointless and ridiculous.

This leads to two possible conclusions:

A. We should never make predictions. The chance of error is too high and the accompanying chance of us lowering our internal estimations of self-worth is too great.

B. If a bunch of stuff is going to change and make us look dumb anyway, we might as well make predictions even earlier!

I doubt these predictions will come true, but it will be a rather interesting year for the sport if they did….

QLE Posted: November 10, 2019 at 12:40 AM | 9 comment(s)
  Beats: predictions

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Juan Soto blasts historic home run - just as his hitting coach guaranteed

Juan Soto was the best teenage hitter in Major League Baseball history, and he might be the best 20-year old hitter in MLB history, too.

His exploits at the plate over the past two seasons have ranged from impressive to historic, and everything in between.

He grew his legend even more Tuesday evening, launching a jaw-dropping home run to the train tracks in Houston.

This is a flat-out bomb. Left-handed hitters just don’t hit home runs to this part of Minute Maid Park.


QLE Posted: October 23, 2019 at 12:39 AM | 19 comment(s)
  Beats: gerrit cole, home runs, juan soto, kevin long, predictions, world series

Thursday, October 03, 2019

MLB Tonight: Bracket Challenge | 09/30/2019 |

OOTP has predicted the last two champions. Can they make it three in a row? Carlos Pena’s and Jim Thome’s picks too.

Tom Verducci and Bill Ripken’s picks.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 03, 2019 at 02:35 PM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: ootp, playoffs, predictions, world series




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