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Prospect Reports Newsbeat
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Beasley: Bryceslist: Killer job.
New Triple-A Syracuse manager Tony Beasley believes Harper could use some more seasoning but has also demonstrated hints of the complete package
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“I would hate to see him come all the way through the system quickly, skip levels and then get the major league level and really skid,” Beasley said. “The thing he has that is special, and I have talked to him about it, is his mindset - the way he believes and the level of confidence he has and his ability to play the game of baseball. I don’t think you want to shake that, especially at this age. I don’t think you want to take the chance of shaking that.”
...But all you can go on is what you have seen and Beasley believes in what Harper has produced in one season. He believes it is a very positive sign for what lies ahead for the Nationals and their top prospect.
“I think so far he has done outstanding. That is the tough call for general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson (to make). All we can do as a minor league field staff is to prepare him as best we can for on and off field situations. I think so far he is way, way ahead of his years and he gets it. I think (Harper) really understands it,” Beasley said.
So, is Harper ready?
“If he gets the call out of spring training this year,” Beasley said, “I have a feeling that he can handle it.”
Friday, January 20, 2012
System in 20 Words or Less: This is the youngest, riskiest, most volatile Top 11 I’ve ever done.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Francisco Lindor, SS
Three-Star Prospects
2. Dillon Howard, RHP
3. Ronny Rodriguez, SS
4. Austin Adams, RHP
5. Tony Wolters, SS
6. Nick Hagadone, LHP
7. Dorssys Paulino, SS
8. Luigi Rodriguez, OF
Two-Star Prospects
9. Scott Barnes, LHP
10. Robel Garcia, INF
11. Elvis Araujo, LHP
Nine More
12. Jake Cisco, RHP: This 2011 third-round pick has size and stuff, but he’s raw.
13. Zach McAllister, RHP: He has command and fastball movement, but little else. His ceiling is a fifth starter.
14. Felix Sterling, RHP: This young righty has a power arm and big potential, but he needs refinement.
15. Jorge Martinez, SS: He’s yet another teenage Dominican with loud tools. He profiles as a third baseman with power.
16. Chen Lee, RHP: This undersized righty has an electric fastball. He should pitch in big leagues this year, and has a seventh- or eighth-inning ceiling.
17. Levon Washington, OF: He’s still a great athlete, but his swing fell apart in 2011.
18. Jesus Aguilar, 1B: This massive first baseman is a bat-only prospect, but there are questions about what he can do other than hit for power.
19. Chun-Hsui Chen, C: He has impressive offensive skills, but he’s well below average behind the plate.
20. Zack Putnam, RHP: Like Lee, Putnam should reach the big leagues this year, but he profiles as a solid reliever, not an impact one.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
(checks fine print for Calvin Riggar update)
CB: Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are two of the brightest and most highly sought after pitching prospects in the Yankee system. While they each miss a lot of bats and generate big strikeout numbers; both have exhibited difficulties in limiting walks. After watching each struggle with their command in 2011, are you still projecting both pitchers to be top of the rotation starters?
JC: I don’t think I’ve ever projected Betances as a frontline starter. That may be his ceiling, but given his slow development path and still less-than-stellar command, I’ve suspected for a while that he’s going to end up as a reliever. I still see Banuelos as a starter, however, but again, I don’t think I’ve ever called him a No. 1 starter. He’s a No. 2 or 3 if everything comes together.
CB: After being listed as Baseball America ’s 108th best prospect prior to the 2011 amateur draft, the Yankees selected Dante Bichette, Jr. with the 51st pick. He signed quickly and promptly set the Gulf Coast League afire hitting .342/.446/.505 and winning league MVP honors. Looking back, do you think your initial evaluation was accurate? If not, what has changed?
JC: Our initial evaluation was based in part about suspicions that he’ll eventually wind up in the outfield. If he can stay at third base, and the Yankees think he can, then he’ll have more value. Bichette has boosted his stock since the draft with his strong debut and his initial play at third base.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Leapin’ Lukevics! What a mess!
1. Addison Reed, rhp
2. Nestor Molina, rhp
3. Simon Castro, rhp
4. Trayce Thompson, of
5. Jake Petricka, rhp
6. Keenyn Walker, of
7. Jhan Marinez, rhp
8. Tyler Saladino, ss
9. Juan Silverio, 3b
10. Ozzie Martinez, ss
With his farm system failing to supply impact players, GM Ken Williams constantly has had to be on the lookout for OPT—other people’s talent. He has chosen poorly in recent years, hamstringing Chicago with bad contracts for Adam Dunn, Jake Peavy and Alex Rios.
...The club could struggle to contend in the immediate future because it has done a poor job of signing and developing its own talent. Chicago has the worst farm system in baseball, and it’s no coincidence that it ranks last in draft spending in the last five years ($18.3 million) and has had little presence on the international amateur market in that time.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
System In 20 Words Or Less: Considering the trades made for a 2012 run at the National Leaugue Central, there is still some strength in the system.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Billy Hamilton, SS
2. Devin Mesoraco, C
Three-Star Prospects
3. Zack Cozart, SS
4. Robert Stephenson, RHP
5. Daniel Corcino, RHP
6. J.C. Sulbaran, RHP
7. Didi Gregorius, SS
8. Todd Frazier, UT
9. Neftali Soto, 1B
10. Henry Rodriguez, 2B
Two-Star Prospects
11. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
Nine More:
12. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP: Can’t stay healthy, but continues to tease with some of the best stuff in the system.
13. Kyle Waldrop, OF: Athletic outfielder impressed Pioneer League scouts in 2011, has excellent chance to move up.
14. Donnie Joseph, LHP: Lefty reliever has bat-missing arsenal; could reach big leagues in 2012 with more strikes.
15. Gabriel Rosa, 3B: 2011 second-round pick is raw, but has the potential for plus power and defense.
16. Tony Cingrani, LHP: 2011 third-rounder has crazy number in pro debut, but projects for many as reliever.
17. Ryan LaMarre, OF: 2010 second-rounder has speed and contact ability, but leaves scouts underwhelmed with overall hitting.
18. Tucker Barnhart, C: Will get to the big leagues on defensive chops alone, but backup bat.
19. Juan Duran, OF: Finally began to untap the power in 2011, but is still uncoordinated after growing to six-foot-seven.
20. Ryan Wright, 2B: Overachiever with more skills than tools, but hard not to like.
Monday, January 16, 2012
System in 20 Words or Less: Two words: Not good.
Four-Star Prospects
1. Addison Reed, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
2. Nestor Molina, RHP
3. Trayce Thompson, OF
4. Jake Petricka, RHP
5. Simon Castro, RHP
6. Keenyn Walker, OF
Two-Star Prospects
7. Eduardo Escobar, SS
8. Jhan Marinez, RHP
9. Myles Jaye, RHP
10. Tyler Saladino, SS
11. Andre Rienzo, RHP
Nine More
12. Juan Silverio, 3B: He’s a third baseman who has the ability to hit, and could move forward in 2012.
13. Jared Mitchell, OF: This former first-rounder still has tools, but the results have been disastrous.
14. Brandon Short, OF: His plus hit tool is matched with a poor approach and a lack of corner-outfield power.
15. Pedro Hernandez, LHP: He was acquired from the Padres in the Carlos Quentin deal. Martinez could pitch in the big leagues this year, but he has a seventh-inning ceiling.
16. Gregory Infante, RHP: Infante is another potential 2012 bullpen piece. He has a power arm, but does not have much to go with in.
17. Erik Johnson, RHP: This 2012 second-round pick has a plus fastball and slider, but he needs to refine his changeup and command.
18. Michael Blanke, C: He has raw power and a good arm, but there are big questions about his bat.
19. Dylan Axelrod, RHP: His ceiling is a fifth starter, but he might already be there.
20. Ozzie Martinez, SS: Martinez arrived from Florida in the Ozzie Guillen deal. He’s a future utility player.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Harvey, RHP
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jeurys Familia, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Brandon Nimmo, OF
5. Juan Lagares, OF
6. Jordany Valdespin, 2B
7. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
8. Reese Havens, 2B
9. Cesar Puello, OF
10. Michael Fulmer, RHP
11. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
Nine More:
12. Cory Mazzoni, RHP: 2011 second-rounder was great in brief debut; will move to rotation in 2012.
13. Akeel Morris, RHP: 20-year-old Virgin Islands native has big, but unrefined, power arm.
14. Darin Gorski, LHP: Had arguably the best stats of any pitcher in the system, but he’s older and has more finesse than stuff.
15. Phillip Evans, SS: Over slot 15th-rounder profiles as offense-oriented second baseman
16. Wilmer Flores, INF: Bat has never taken expected move forward while scouts see big moves down defensive spectrum.
17. Jefry Marte, 3B: Age and strong showing in Arizona Fall League saves him; some scouts still believe in the bat.
18. Juan Urbina, LHP: Shows flashes of high-ceiling potential, but not enough of them.
19. Chris Schwinden, RHP: Reached the big leagues, but what you see is what you get with potential to be a number-five starter.
20. Darrell Ceciliani, OF: Plus speed and a leadoff man’s approach, but never got going with the bat in full-season debut.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Michael Choice, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jarrod Parker, RHP
3. A.J. Cole, RHP
4. Brad Peacock, RHP
5. Sonny Gray, RHP
6. Derek Norris, C
7. Grant Green, OF
Three-Star Prospects
8. Chris Carter, 1B
9. Collin Cowgill, OF
10. Raul Alcantara, RHP
11. Max Stassi, C
Nine More
12. Michael Taylor, OF: He made some improvements in 2011, but the A’s showed “confidence” in Taylor by acquiring Reddick and re-signing Crisp.
13. Josh Donaldson, C: He doesn’t have any star-level tools, but he has improved defensively and has always had solid power.
14. Yordy Cabrera, SS: He had an ugly full-season debut in 2011, but the seven-figure tools are still there.
15. Bobby Crocker, OF: This 2011 fourth-round pick is a big-time athlete with speed and power potential.
16. Aaron Shipman, OF: He could explode with some hitting refinements due to his speed and advanced approach.
17. Vicmal De La Cruz, OF: De La Cruz was beat up in the Dominican Summer League. His speed and bat are his best tools.
18. Ian Krol, LHP: He lost 2011 due to injury, but his instructional league showing has officials optimistic for a bounceback.
19. Miles Head, 1B/3B: Head came over in the Andrew Bailey trade. There is nothing pretty about what he does, but his power is significant.
20. Jermaine Mitchell, OF: He finally had his breakout season, but he is also 27 now.
Pork Chop Pough, don’t ya know!!!
1. Francisco Lindor, ss
2. Dillon Howard, rhp
3. Nick Hagadone, lhp
4. Chen Lee, rhp
5. Luigi Rodriguez, of
6. Zach McAllister, rhp
7. Tony Wolters, ss
8. Austin Adams, rhp
9. Scott Barnes, lhp
10. Zach Putnam, rhp
If things don’t click for the Indians, they’ll likely have to turn back to trade market. The trades of White and Pomeranz and graduations of Chisenhall and Kipnis have left the system thin of talent. Cleveland’s strength in the minors is its depth of relief pitching, but Hagadone, Chen Lee, Zach Putnam and Co. aren’t going to provide the foundation for a contender.
The Indians’ best prospects are years away from contributing. They paid $4.75 million for their first two picks in the 2011 draft, shortstop Francisco Lindor and righthander Dillon Howard, but they’re high schoolers with a combined five games of pro experiences. Similarly, Dominican outfielder Luigi Rodriguez and shortstop Tony Wolters have played just 34 games in full-season leagues.
Friday, January 13, 2012
As an old pequod sod in the bar used to say to anybody named Jack…“#### you, Jack, I’m all right!!”
The Atlanta Braves have re-signed veteran infielder Jack Wilson to a one-year deal, the team’s website reports.
Wilson, 34, hit .243 with no homers, 11 RBIs in part-time duty with the Braves and Seattle Mariners in 2011. He was dealt to Atlanta on Aug. 31.
His biggest impact this season might be as a mentor/insurance policy.
Barring another acquisition, the Braves will start rookie Tyler Pastornicky at shortstop on opening day. The 22-year-old hit .314 with seven homers, 45 RBIs and 27 stolen bases between the Class AA and Class AAA levels in 2011, but he never has played in the majors.
As we wait for the Hall of Fame announcement to come sometime Monday morning - for the record, I’m predicting that Barry Larkin will be the only new inductee this year, with Jack Morris getting dangerously close to the 70% mark - it seems like the perfect time to go back and look at how the main candidates on this year’s ballot looked coming into the major leagues. Using my collection of annual baseball preview magazines from the likes of Street and Smith’s and The Sporting News, I’ve gone back and found each candidate’s name in the various “minor leagues” sections of the magazines. It’s always fun to see what everyone was saying about some of the game’s greats before we knew them to be so.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Bundy: From Ann Rule to Oriole Way…always with the damn restrictions.
1. Dylan Bundy, rhp
2. Manny Machado, ss
3. Jon Schoop, inf
4. Parker Bridwell, rhp
5. L.J. Hoes, of/2b
6. Nicky Delmonico, 3b/1b
7. Ryan Flaherty, inf/of
8. Jason Esposito, 3b
9. Xavier Avery, of
10. Dan Klein, rhp
Angelos is now on his eighth different GM since buying the Orioles 18 years ago. MacPhail lasted the longest, at four and a half years. Before him, Angelos ran off baseball icon Roland Hemond, who left after the 1995 season; Hall of Famer Pat Gillick, who fled after 1998 despite making the AL Championship Series twice in three years; Frank Wren, who lasted only one season and has found success as GM of the Braves; Syd Thrift, a recycling experiment similar to Duquette that lasted three years; and Jim Beattie and Mike Flanagan, who served as a two-headed GM for three years before Flanagan did a year and a half on his own.
Angelos has done a poor job of creating a unified baseball operation pulling in the same direction toward a shared goal, instead fostering an atmosphere where departments seem to function as autonomous units. Duquette, of course, pledges to change that. Empty promises have remained one of the few constants with the Orioles during the last 14 years.
1. Trevor May | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B
2. Jesse Biddle | LHP | Age – 20 | Grade – B
3. Phillippe Aumont | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – B/B-
4. Maikel Franco | 3b | Age – 19 | Grade – B-
5. Justin De Fratus | RHP | Age – 24 | Grade – B-
6. Sebastian Valle | C | Age – 21 | Grade – C+
7. Larry Greene | LF/1b | Age – 19 | Grade – C+
8. Freddy Galvis | SS | Age – 22 | Grade – C+
9. Austin Wright | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C+
10. Jon Pettibone | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – C+
11. Brody Colvin | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – C+
12. Lisalberto Bonilla | RHP | Age – 21 | Grade – C+
13. Jiwan James | CF | Age – 23 | Grade – C+
14. Tyler Greene | SS | Age – 19 | Grade – C+
15. Adam Morgan | LHP | Age – 22 | Grade – C+
Sunday, January 08, 2012
Next time I go to an EXXXOTICA Expo convention, I’m signing in as Xander Bogaerts.
1. Will Middlebrooks, 3b
2. Xander Bogaerts, ss
3. Blake Swihart, c
4. Anthony Ranaudo, rhp
5. Bryce Brentz, of
6. Brandon Jacobs, of
7. Garin Cecchini, 3b
8. Matt Barnes, rhp
9. Ryan Lavarnway, c
10. Jackie Bradley, of
The Red Sox may have embarrassed themselves and missed the playoffs for a second straight season, but they still won 90 games and will remain a contender in the near future. Likewise, Boston’s farm system didn’t cover itself in glory in 2011, yet still has plenty of talent. The system does lack an elite prospect, however, and many of its best players haven’t advanced past Class A.
For the third time in four years, the Red Sox set a new franchise record for draft spending, upping the ante to $11 million in 2011. Their haul included catcher Blake Swihart, righthander Matt Barnes and outfielder Jackie Bradley, all of whom rank among their Top 10 Prospects. The draft changes that came out of baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement may hit Boston more than any club, as it will have a relatively small signing bonus cap and fewer extra picks going forward.
Friday, January 06, 2012
I can’t imagine why the Braves would balk about trading their starting LF, a #3 starter AND “prime” pitching prospects for a new Jeff Francoeur…
Thursday, January 05, 2012
System In 20 Words Or Less: There’s a good combination of near big league-ready talent and youngsters to dream on.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Nolan Arenado, 3B
2. Drew Pomeranz, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Wilin Rosario, C
4. Chad Bettis, RHP
5. Tim Wheeler, OF
Three-Star Prospects
6. Tyler Matzek, RHP
7. Rosell Herrera, SS/3B
8. Trevor Story, SS
9. Josh Rutledge, SS
10. Tyler Anderson, LHP
11. Kent Matthes, OF
Nine More:
12. Charlie Blackmon, OF: He reached the majors and got hurt. Scouts wobble between him being a good fourth outfielder and second-division starter.
13. Christian Adames, SS: He has the potential for well above-average defense, but will he hit enough?
14. Edwar Cabrera, LHP: He put up incredible numbers thanks to an outstanding changeup, but he’s a bit of a trick pitcher.
15. Kyle Parker, OF: This first-round pick didn’t mash at Low-A, especially away from Asheville.
16. Christian Friedrich, LHP: His dominance in 2009 is in the rearview mirror with no great explanation for his decline.
17. Corey Dickerson, OF: Last year’s sleeper slugged 32 home runs, but he also had baseball’s most extreme splits; he had a .354/.417/.844 line at home, and .193/.280/.363 mark on the road.
18. DJ LeMahieu, INF: This future utility player offers some hitting skills and positional flexibility.
19. Will Swanner, C: He’s a catcher with plus power who needs to improve behind the plate.
20. Rafael Ortega, OF: Ortega is an athletic center fielder with tools in a small package, but his approach is a mess.
System In 20 Words Or Less: The system finds some depth and star power in Yelich, but there is still an overall lack of elite-level talent.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Christian Yelich, OF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jose Fernandez, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF
4. J.T. Realmuto, C
5. Chad James, LHP
6. Matt Dominguez, 3B
7. Jesus Solorzano, OF
8. Jose Ceda, RHP
9. Jose Urena, RHP
10. Rob Rasmussen, LHP
11. Noah Perio, 2B
Nine More:
12. Austin Brice, RHP: Big, athletic righty with well above-average velocity and lots of projection.
13. Adam Conley, LHP: 2011 second-round pick has outstanding velocity for lefty, but secondary offerings need work.
14. Mason Hope, RHP: Fifth-rounder was overshadowed by big-name Oklahoma arms, but fastball and curve are both above-average.
15. Chris Hatcher, RHP: Marlins have dreams of converted catcher being the next Jason Motte. Good command of mid-90s heat.
16. Scott Cousins, OF: Left-handedness all but assures him of fourth outfielder work; has ability to turn into second-division starter.
17. Kyle Skipworth, C: Sixth overall pick in 2008 still has plenty of raw power, but approach is a mess and defense has not improved.
18. Kyle Jensen, OF: Put up big numbers in the Florida State League, but is an older corner outfielder who has to keep hitting.
19. Mark Canha, 1B: Another Jensen type, Canha has very real power, but as a 22-year-old first baseman in Low-A last year, he was supposed to mash.
20. Alejandro Ramos, RHP: Wipeout slider has missed plenty of best as A-level closer, but scouts wonder if he has enough of a fastball for it to work in the upper levels.
1. Wily Peralta | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B
2. Taylor Jungmann | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B
3. Tyler Thornburg | RHP | Age – 22 | Grade – B/B-
4. Jed Bradley | LHP | Age – 21 | Grade – B-
5. Jorge Lopez | RHP | Age – 19 | Grade – B-
6. Logan Schafer | CF | Age – 25 | Grade – C+
7. Scooter Gennett | 2b | Age – 22 | Grade – C+
8. Cody Scarpetta | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – C+
9. Taylor Green | INF | Age – 25 | Grade – C+
10. Michael Fiers | RHP | Age – 26 | Grade – C+
11. David Goforth | RHP | Age – 23 | Grade – C+
12. Orlando Arcia | SS | Age – 17 | Grade – C+
13. Caleb Gindl | OF | Age – 23 | Grade – C+
14. Michael Reed | RF | Age – 19 | Grade – C
15. Khris Davis | OF | Age – 24 | Grade – C
Damn rotter, Eenhoorn!
1. Jesus Montero, c
2. Manny Banuelos, lhp
3. Dellin Betances, rhp
4. Gary Sanchez, c
5. Mason Williams, of
6. Dante Bichette, 3b
7. Ravel Santana, of
8. Austin Romine, c
9. J.R. Murphy, c/3b
10. Slade Heathcott, of
It wasn’t all great news for New York on the player-development front. Righthander Andrew Brackman, a 2007 first-round pick who collected nearly $6 million on the big league deal he signed without reaching the majors, didn’t have his $2.2 million option for 2012 picked up after a terrible season. He contemplated quitting baseball and has gone 15-29, 5.11 as a pro.
Outside of Banuelos, the Yankees continue to struggle to develop lefties. Even with the success at the lower levels, the system’s domestic clubs struggled to reach .500.
But on Cashman’s watch, New York has been the majors’ most consistent winner and produced its share of homegrown talent. As the GM begins a new three-year contract, it’s easy to say that he has earned it.
Sunday, January 01, 2012
As we used to say back in the 80’s…Hurry up Todd, Demeter is running.
1) Jesus Montero, C-DH, Grade A: What he did in the majors last year was not a fluke. It was at the high end of expectation, yes, and I wouldn’t expect him to hit like that over 500 plate appearances at age 22. He may need some adjustment time, but his bat is truly outstanding and he wasn’t just getting lucky. His glove isn’t very good and while he’s not a complete player in terms of contributing speed or defense, his hitting is so strong he still gets a Grade A from me.
2) Gary Sanchez, C, Grade B+: Excellent power production in full-season ball at age 18; that is rare. His glove needs work and he needs to take his career more seriously, but he has time to outgrow emotional immaturity.
3) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. He got a B last year and I can’t bump his grade up a notch given the command difficulties he had in Double-A. He’s still a fine prospect, however, projecting as a number three starter if all goes well.
4) Dellin Betances, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B+. He’s got plenty of stuff but command wobbles prevent the B+ at this time. Ceiling is a tad higher than Banuelos, but I’m less confident that he’ll reach it. Depending on what happens with his command, he could develop into anything from a number two starter to a disappointing mop-up man.
5) Mason Williams, OF, Grade B: We need to see him higher than the New York-Penn League, but he showed progress with both the bat and the glove. Main question is how much power he’ll develop. Grade may be a bit aggressive.
...Banuelos, Betances, and Andrew Brackman were the Three Bs this time last year. Brackman washed out in Triple-A and is now in Cincinnati, while both Banuelos and Betances had command struggles in Double-A. They are both impressive prospects still, but they didn’t progress as hoped and they might not be ready as soon as anticipated last spring. The Yankees also seem to have a knack for finding solid pitching from the college ranks and pitchers who can contribute from the middle and later rounds of the draft, particularly in the bullpen.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
“The horror. . .the horror.”
1) Nestor Molina, RHP, Grade B+: Acquired from the Blue Jays for Sergio Santos, and immediately became Chicago’s first or second-best prospect. I think he can remain a starter. Molina was a big topic of discussion earlier this month.
2) Addison Reed, RHP, Grade B+: The best closer prospect in baseball thanks to superior command of 93-97 MPH fastball and devastating slider. You can make a case to rank him ahead of Molina, if you think Molina will be a reliever.
3) Tyler Saladino, SS, Grade C+: 2010 seventh round pick out of Oral Roberts developed from draft sleeper into solid prospect. Good power for a middle infielder, and has some idea about the strike zone, scouts like his work ethic. Main issue now is if he can stick at shortstop, and I think he has a decent chance to do so.
4) Trayce Thompson, OF, Grade C+: Highest-ceiling bat in system, tapping into his power now and making good progress on defense. Kills lefties but has serious contact problems against right-handed pitching. Struck out 172 times while repeating Low-A. Has the tools to be a star slugger but also carries a high risk of failure.
5) Hector Santiago, LHP, Grade C+: Came out of nowhere to reach the majors (briefly) in 2011 thanks to development of a new screwball to go with 90-95 MPH fastball. Third pitch still needs work and it is unclear if he starts or relieves in the long run, although recent rumors indicate the Sox will continue to start him. Projects as number three/four starter if third pitch develops, or a power relief arm.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
1) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B+: He can be a number two starter and someone to build around. Some evaluators see him more as a closer if his changeup remains erratic, but I’m cutting him some slack on that issue and am optimistic.
2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B+: This is actually more like Harvey -A and Wheeler 1-B. They are very close but Harvey is closer to being ready. Like Harvey, I see Wheeler as a future number two starter and staff anchor. He made big strides with his control last year. Like Harvey his changeup needs more work, but I’m optimistic about him given the improvements he’s already made.
The Mets farm system has improved and I don’t think it gets enough respect. There are some problems that have to be addressed, but they have some strengths as well. The organization is still suffering hangover from the way prospects were managed in the previous administration, but things are looking up.
Hope springs eternal!
Sunday, December 25, 2011
1) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Grade A: Cole can be enigmatic and sometimes gets hit harder than he should given the quality of his stuff, but he’s still a Grade A prospect. At his best he throws strikes with three excellent pitches, and I think he’ll get more consistent. Looked great in Arizona Fall League, except for the disaster in the Rising Stars game.
2) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Grade A-: They are being very careful with his workload. As he incorporates his secondary pitches more often and builds his stamina, I expect greater dominance. Still struck out more than a hitter per inning even with restrictions on secondary pitch use.
3) Josh Bell, OF, Grade B+: Switch-hitter, should develop 30+-homer power and a high OBP. Pure hitting skills solid too. We’ll have to see about his defense and I want some pro data, but I’m very optimistic about him.
4) Starling Marte, OF, Grade B: Borderline B+. Hit well in Double-A, starting to develop more power, despite poor strike zone judgment. Superior defense. Still raw, needs a year of Triple-A, a wide range of possible outcomes, could become an All-Star, a mediocre regular, or a fourth outfielder.
5) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade B: If he had fulfilled his commitment to the University of Texas, 2011 would have been his draft year. I know he was repeating High-A, but a player jumping from the college ranks to High-A, hitting .294/.418/.451, then ripping up the Arizona Fall League would be getting an awful lot of praise, not skepticism. I also think that Grossman’s tools are better than commonly reported. I expect he’ll provide gap power with some speed and a high OBP, and that’s valuable.
Thanks to Bucco Barnald.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Has Jace Brewer drawn a walk yet? Just checking.
1. Matt Moore, lhp
2. Hak-Ju Lee, ss
3. Chris Archer, rhp
4. Taylor Guerrieri, rhp
5. Alex Colome, rhp
6. Alex Torres, lhp
7. Tim Beckham, ss
8. Enny Romero, lhp
9. Drew Vettleson, of
10. Mikie Mahtook, of
While Tampa Bay continued to win in the majors, it also restocked its system. The Rays received five youngsters from the Cubs for Garza, including three quality prospects in shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, righthander Chris Archer and outfielder Brandon Guyer.
The exodus of seven free agents gave Tampa Bay 10 compensation draft choices and an unprecedented 12 picks in the first two rounds. The Rays’ first two picks weren’t supposed to get to them, high school righthander Taylor Guerrieri at No. 24 and Louisiana State outfielder Mikie Mahtook at No. 31, and they continued to blend college players and prep talent afterward.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
In 21st-century baseball, when teams do overpay in prospects, it’s usually for stars. Most famously, in 2007 the Braves gave up Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (who started to find himself this season after a trade to Boston) — but at least they traded for Mark Teixeira, an acknowledged superstar.
The blowback from the Teixeira trade seems to have made teams even more conservative about trading prospects, even for elite major league talent. As a result, for perhaps the first time in baseball history, minor league prospects seem to be overvalued by MLB front offices. ...
To put this in terms that Billy Beane can understand: We’ve reached a point where trading away prospects is the new market inefficiency. ...
For that reason, an ambitious team with a deep farm system — the Royals, for instance, or the Nationals — should take advantage of MLB general managers’ prospect fetish to cash in some of their lottery tickets for established players who might help them win in 2012.
Rany makes some excellent points here. Prospects can serve two purposes for an organization - building blocks on the parent club or trade chits for the pieces that will get you over the hump - and teams seem to be more inclined these days to use them for the first purpose without giving enough thought to using them for the second purpose.
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