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Relievers Newsbeat

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

We Provide Leverage: A Thought Experiment

Last week, when giving our playoff odds a quick once-over, I stumbled across something interesting. In translating from player statistics to our projections, we strip out the impact of reliever leverage. That seems intuitively weird, so I wanted to delve into the thinking behind it and see if I could find a workaround.

First, a quick recap of the issue. When we calculate WAR for relievers, we include the impact of leverage. This makes sense — the last reliever off the bench is mostly pitching in blowouts, so their contribution, good or bad, is less important than the closer’s. If you used a dominant reliever in a mop-up role, they’d be far less valuable than if they got to pitch in games where the outcome was uncertain.

How do we adjust for leverage? It’s reasonably straightforward. Take a reliever’s gmLI, which you can find in the Win Probability section. Kirby Yates, for example, had a gmLI of 2.16 last year. gmLI is the average leverage index when a pitcher enters the game. You can find a recap of leverage index here, but it’s essentially a measure of how important a given plate appearance is. A leverage index of 1 means that the situation is exactly as important as the average plate appearance, 2 means the situation is twice as important, and so on.

With a reliever’s gmLI in hand, we use a conversion formula. Take the gmLI, add one, and divide the result by two. That gives you the number to multiply the reliever’s “raw” WAR by to arrive at the WAR you’ll see in our stats. Let’s use Yates again as an example. His gmLI was 2.16. Adding 1 gives us 3.16. We then divide by 2 and arrive at 1.58. Yates’s “raw” WAR last year (which you can calculate using the method here), which isn’t displayed anywhere on our website, was 2.15. Multiply that by 1.58, and we get the 3.4 number you’ll see on his player page.

A consideration of a very delicate topic- and one that can be rather contentious indeed.

 

QLE Posted: February 25, 2020 at 01:14 AM | 52 comment(s)
  Beats: leverage, relievers, war

Friday, January 03, 2020

Mets find relief in New Year, introducing Dellin Betances

NEW YORK (AP) — This is the next stop on Dellin Betances’ subway ride around New York.

After spending his first eight seasons in the majors with the crosstown Yankees, the New Yorker has joined the Mets on a one-year contract with a player option for 2021. The deal was announced on Christmas Eve and guarantees the towering right-handed reliever at least $10.5 million.

“This past week-and-a-half has brought a lot of excitement to myself and my family,” Betances said during his introductory news conference Thursday at Citi Field, where he was joined by more than two dozen family members. “Christmas, in fact, came a little bit early as we celebrated our signing with the New York Mets.”

Betances’ journey has taken him through all five of New York City’s boroughs. Born in Manhattan’s Washington Heights neighborhood, the four-time All-Star grew up on the island’s Lower East Side.

Bold headline, isn’t it?

 

QLE Posted: January 03, 2020 at 01:31 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: dellin betances, mets, relievers

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader named Relievers of the Year

Yankees lefty reliever Aroldis Chapman and Brewers closer Josh Hader were selected as the AL and NL Relievers of the Year on Saturday, per an official announcement from Major League Baseball. It’s the second consecutive award for Hader, who took home NL honors in 2018 as well.

Chapman, 31, improved on last year’s All-Star campaign in 2019, nearly reaching a new career high with 37 saves and posting a 2.21 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 13.4 SO/9, and 2.0 fWAR across 57 innings. He’s the second Yankees reliever to take home the award since Andrew Miller earned the distinction in 2015. No AL pitcher — or team, for that matter — has received the award in consecutive years.

Wondering what it says that I didn’t realize, before looking it up now, that Rolaids hasn’t sponsored this award since 2012…..

 

QLE Posted: October 27, 2019 at 12:13 AM | 30 comment(s)
  Beats: aroldis chapman, awards and honors, josh hader, relievers

 

 

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