One thing I’m confident about: Ohtani will get an absolute king’s ransom wherever he goes. If he’s looking to max out on dollars, his contract could eclipse $500 million in guaranteed money, even with his uncertain pitching future. He’s so talented that his performance merits a top-of-market deal, and he’s so marketable that owners will likely be willing to pay up beyond the fair value of his on-field production. He’ll sell tickets, drive fan interest, and produce a huge upswell in Japanese viewership and advertising.

That assumes that Ohtani just wants to sign for the highest amount of money. If he’s more interested in optionality and comfort, he might instead sign a deal that gives him huge upside but preserves the option to re-test the market in a few years. He might also opt for something more complicated, like Julio Rodríguez’s variable-size deal. Normally, players are limited by what kinds of deals teams want to offer. But with Ohtani’s free agency, just like with his playing career, the usual limits don’t apply.

Only one thing is certain: Every team with the capability to offer Ohtani a big contract will try to woo him. We don’t know enough about his preferences to know where he will or won’t play, but you’d be a fool not to throw your hat in the ring just in case. If there were other free agents of similar-but-lesser value, he might hold up their market. In this year’s class, though, he stands alone by so much that I think teams will treat him as independent from the rest of their plans.

1) Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH (age: 29)

Even with a torn UCL that required a second elbow surgery, Ohtani is easily the top free agent on this year’s market. It remains to be seen if/when Ohtani will return to the mound, but his offensive profile alone—which compares favorably to Aaron Judge, who signed for nine years and $360 million last year—should land him a deal in that range, as he’s more than a year younger than Judge was when he reached free agency. Most expect him to pitch again no later than 2025, and it’s possible his deal goes far beyond Judge’s, though the guaranteed dollars are sure to take a hit from what they would have been without the injury.

Potential fits: Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Mets

With nothing left for him this season beyond medical procedures, Shohei Ohtani has cleared out his locker with the Los Angeles Angels. Potentially for the final time.

The two-way superstar, who tore the UCL in his pitching arm last month, missed his 11th straight game Friday and it became clear after the game that he would miss more, as his locker was cleared out once reporters entered the clubhouse for postgame interviews.

Some of his things were even in the trash, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The next morning, the team announced that Ohtani is on the 10-day injured list with an oblique injury and will miss the rest of the season. General manager Perry Minasian finally elaborated on the story Saturday afternoon, telling reporters an MRI had revealed an issue with Ohtani’s oblique on Friday.

Ohtani apparently decided to clear out his locker because he is focusing on getting a procedure done on his elbow. That could mean a second career Tommy John surgery, though Ohtani has been reported to be seeking second opinions.

Marcus Semien, Rangers: He might be the best chance here with the gaudy WAR showing while playing every day for what has been one of the best teams in the league this season, especially with that team being such a pleasant surprise. But are you moved by his .279/.349/.463 slash that’s good for a 120 OPS+? How about 31 doubles, four triples, 19 homers, 79 RBI, 96 runs and 13 steals? Great numbers, but we’re talking about MVP over Ohtani’s output.

Corey Seager, Rangers: He’s hitting a robust .343/.411/.651 (184 OPS+) and that’s absolutely an MVP slash line. Of course, he’s not even qualified for the batting title. Even if he plays every single game the rest of the way, he’ll finish with 119 games. That’s short of Ohtani. Seager would have to keep up this ridiculous pace and not miss any games and still probably would be well short of Ohtani in terms of individual value. If the argument against Ohtani is games played, he’d still have more. If it’s value to the team during a pennant race, Semien’s been around all year for the Rangers. I’m just not seeing it.

Los Angeles Angels two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani departed his start Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds (GameTracker) alongside a trainer with what the team called “arm fatigue.” Hours later, Angels general manager Perry Minasian told reporters in Anaheim, Calif., that Ohtani has a tear in his UCL and will not pitch the remainder of the season. Minasian said it was not yet known whether surgery will be necessary for Ohtani.

“He has a tear, and he won’t pitch the rest of the year,” Minasian said. “We’re going to get a second opinion, go from there, but it’s basically day to day. ... He’s played with this in ‘18, but with that being said, we’ll take it day by day and see where it goes. ... If anybody can bounce back, it’s him.”

However, we know that Ohtani will not be viewed as an average free agent, regardless of the precedent of past contracts or which player pool he is compared to. Instead, let’s base our calculations off the max deals on these lists—the 11-year, $300 million deal Trea Turner got from the Phillies after the 2022 season as a position player, and the nine-year, $324 million deal Gerrit Cole got from the Yankees after the 2019 season as a pitcher.

If we combined those two deals, we’re looking at $624 million—over 11 years, that’s an average annual value of $56.7 million.

These estimates assume that Ohtani will pursue the greatest total contract value he can get over the longest period of time. In reality, Ohtani’s next contract could take on many different shapes. He could opt for a higher annual payout over a shorter duration in hopes of reentering free agency in a few years. It’s also possible he is willing to take a longer deal but at a lower AAV to lessen the tax-threshold implications for his next team. His deal likely will include some combination of player options, team options and mutual options.

Looking at rate stats alone can skew the perception of a player’s production, though, so let’s bring some counting stats into the mix. Ohtani’s home run numbers last month were among the most eye-popping of his stats, so we’ll start there. Only 47 times in baseball history has a player hit at least 15 home runs in a month. Among that group, here are how Ohtani’s June numbers stack up:

Batting average: 8th

On-base percentage: 8th

Slugging percentage: 5th

Total bases: T-5th

sOPS+: 5th

Ohtani is clearly in an elite class even among the cohort of players who hit such a high number of home runs in one calendar month. Only three players finished with a better OPS and sOPS+ than Ohtani while hitting 15-plus homers: Ruth in May 1928 (1.547 and 312), Hank Greenberg in September 1940 (1.504 and 323) and Bonds in May 2001 (1.583 and 310).

The Los Angeles Angels are highly unlikely to trade Shohei Ohtani if they remain in playoff contention this summer, general manager Perry Minasian said Tuesday.

Minasian didn’t unequivocally vow he won’t trade Ohtani, who is scheduled to enter unrestricted free agency after the season. But the GM underlined his season-long stance on the issue while strongly indicating he still intends to do everything possible to end the Angels’ eight-year playoff drought – and that includes taking the massive risk of losing their two-way superstar in free agency.

“It’s pretty self-explanatory with where we’re at (in the standings),” Minasian said while speaking to reporters before the Angels opened a two-game Freeway Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are likely to be one of the top contenders for Ohtani’s services in free agency.

The second-place Angels are 41-33 entering Tuesday’s games, holding one of the AL’s wild card playoff spots and trailing AL West-leading Texas by five games after being nine back only two weeks ago. The Halos took three of four from the Rangers in Arlington last week as part of an 11-3 surge that has boosted their chances of making the playoffs for the first time in Ohtani’s career.