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Six Man Rotations Newsbeat

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The Costs and Benefits of Six-Man Rotations

In other words, the extra day of rest doesn’t appear to be worth that much. If you take my math at face value and assume that all previous starts were on regular rest — a poor and lazy assumption that I’m absolutely going to make for the sake of time — that works out to something like 6.5 runs over the entire season. Though I’m tired of saying it, I still will — I have very little confidence in this number. As a ballpark guess, however — and pun very much intended, I have a reputation to uphold — I think it gets the job done.

Okay, so teams can get an indeterminate injury benefit and also maybe save 6.5 runs by going to a six-man rotation. Let’s talk cost. The cost is clear: your top five starters all throw roughly 30 fewer innings, and those innings get replaced by your sixth-best starter. Sorry, Max Scherzer, but it’s Austin Voth’s turn to shine, and so on.

The cost of this downgrade varies by team. It depends on two things: the average quality of your existing rotation and the quality of your sixth starter. To approximate this cost, I took Depth Charts projections for every team in baseball and then calculated the existing rotation’s average projected ERA and the sixth-best starter’s projected ERA. The difference between those two numbers, over the 150 innings we’re granting our sixth starter in this scenario, will be each team’s cost of going to six starters.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 13, 2021 at 03:03 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: six man rotations

 

 

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