Have Games Become Less Competitive Since the Trade Deadline?

Another way to look at this is analyzing performance after trade deadlines of past seasons. The last full season in 2019 yielded nearly identical average run differentials before (3.66) and after (3.64) the trade deadline. The bigger issue, however, is that each deadline has its own unique impact on the season, and 2019 was a bit of a dud in that regard, with only a handful of truly impactful moves.

I’m not saying the bevy of sellers at the trade deadline isn’t detracting from the competitiveness of some games for the rest of the season. The Orioles are currently in the midst of an 18-game losing streak, but let’s not forget, that’s their second double-digit losing streak this year, and Baltimore was more or less silent at the deadline, too. And while most of the beatdowns over the last few weeks have come at the expense of sellers and teams far outside of the playoff picture, the Rays, owners of the best record in the American League, lost 20–8 to the Red Sox and 12–0 to the Twins within a span of a few days. Blowouts can happen to anyone at any time.

I have my reservations, but there is certainly credence behind the idea that teams that traded proven major leaguers away are more at risk of losing by a lopsided margin than before. But even these teams tend to be more competitive than we give them credit for.