Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: Eight years, $174 million
Vladito is making nearly $8 million this year and not in a family hurting for financial resources, so he has a reasonable risk profile to try to wait out free agency and grab a monster deal then. But that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays shouldn’t at least try; it will be a shame if his stay in Toronto is already half over.

While Guerrero’s offensive numbers have come back down since last year’s Triple Crown run, the disappearance of run scoring around the league makes the drop look far more significant than it actually is. In rest-of-career value, ZiPS has him fourth in baseball among hitters, and none of the top three are gettable….

Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners: Six years, $103 million
Remember when some people were actually worried about him? Seattle’s patience with Jarred Kelenic hasn’t yet paid off, but the team’s aggression in putting Rodríguez on the roster appears to be a bonanza. The first week or so was rough, but since that first multi-hit game, he’s been one of the hottest players in baseball, hitting .330/.385/.466 over 24 games. Not bad for a guy who has played all of six weeks of Double-A ball.

lready the face of the upstart Toronto Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looked the part of a true Maple Leaf on Wednesday night, too.

Guerrero shook off a bloody gash on his right ring finger to hit three home runs against the rival Yankees, including two off ace Gerrit Cole, in Toronto’s 6-4 victory.

“Otherworldly hitting,” New York manager Aaron Boone said of Guerrero. “One of the best hitters in the world.”

The American League MVP runner-up homered off Cole in the first inning, had his hand accidentally spiked on a play at first base in the second, then hammered a line-drive homer off Cole in the third to put Toronto up 3-0. He doubled off Cole in the sixth—prompting the pitcher to make a show of tipping his cap to the 23-year-old—then launched a 443-foot leadoff homer against Jonathan Loaisiga in the eighth for a 5-3 lead.

“Did you see his night?” Cole said in his postgame availability when asked about the tip of the cap. “If you had a cap, you’d tip it, too.”

Guerrero is now four seasons away from free agency — just as Tatis was when he signed last spring — but because he qualified as a Super 2 player, he will go through arbitration four times, while the Padres shortstop would have only gone through three. As a result, Guerrero is positioned to out-earn Tatis through their third through sixth service-time seasons. With a projected salary of $8 million in 2022, he’d very conservatively platform to $12 million, $16 million and $20 million over the next three years for an estimated total of $56 million — roughly double the $27 million Tatis is slated to earn over the same span.

Given those numbers, the question then becomes how to value the free-agent years portion of an extension, which Tatis locked in at an average of $31.3 million over 10 years. The most recent relevant comparable is the $130-million, five-year extension Paul Goldschmidt signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in March 2019 covering his age 32 through 36 seasons. That’s an average of $26 million a season, less than the $31 million Miguel Cabrera is averaging on the $248 million, eight-year deal covering his ages 33-40, but more than Albert Pujols’ $24 million per covering ages 32-41 ($240-million, 10-year deal) or Joey Votto’s $22.5 million per covering ages 30-39 ($225-million, 10-year deal).

A key differentiation is that Guerrero will be offering his prime years, 27 to 31. Assuming his continued growth, they will be immensely valuable, which suggests he should be at the higher end of those averages, especially since some of those comps are now years old. The value in buying more peak than decline is why the Padres were willing to pay up for Tatis and Manny Machado, whom they landed for $300 million over 10 years as a free agent.