Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

War Newsbeat

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

We Provide Leverage: A Thought Experiment

Last week, when giving our playoff odds a quick once-over, I stumbled across something interesting. In translating from player statistics to our projections, we strip out the impact of reliever leverage. That seems intuitively weird, so I wanted to delve into the thinking behind it and see if I could find a workaround.

First, a quick recap of the issue. When we calculate WAR for relievers, we include the impact of leverage. This makes sense — the last reliever off the bench is mostly pitching in blowouts, so their contribution, good or bad, is less important than the closer’s. If you used a dominant reliever in a mop-up role, they’d be far less valuable than if they got to pitch in games where the outcome was uncertain.

How do we adjust for leverage? It’s reasonably straightforward. Take a reliever’s gmLI, which you can find in the Win Probability section. Kirby Yates, for example, had a gmLI of 2.16 last year. gmLI is the average leverage index when a pitcher enters the game. You can find a recap of leverage index here, but it’s essentially a measure of how important a given plate appearance is. A leverage index of 1 means that the situation is exactly as important as the average plate appearance, 2 means the situation is twice as important, and so on.

With a reliever’s gmLI in hand, we use a conversion formula. Take the gmLI, add one, and divide the result by two. That gives you the number to multiply the reliever’s “raw” WAR by to arrive at the WAR you’ll see in our stats. Let’s use Yates again as an example. His gmLI was 2.16. Adding 1 gives us 3.16. We then divide by 2 and arrive at 1.58. Yates’s “raw” WAR last year (which you can calculate using the method here), which isn’t displayed anywhere on our website, was 2.15. Multiply that by 1.58, and we get the 3.4 number you’ll see on his player page.

A consideration of a very delicate topic- and one that can be rather contentious indeed.

 

QLE Posted: February 25, 2020 at 01:14 AM | 16 comment(s)
  Beats: leverage, relievers, war

Friday, November 01, 2019

National League Rushmore Update, 2019

The National League follow-up to Monday’s article

If you don’t happen to recall, this isn’t about the four best players in a team’s history. Rather, it’s about the four best players in history that have never played for another team. If you’re wondering where Willie Mays and Hank Aaron are, that’s where. These aren’t necessarily the “right” answers, but they’re interesting to me.

I agree with the author, it’s interesting.

Mike Webber Posted: November 01, 2019 at 02:03 PM | 25 comment(s)
  Beats: national league, war

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

One advanced metric says he’s baseball’s top pitcher. Mike Minor isn’t buying it

NEW YORK — Mike Minor is in a class of his own.

At least according to “Baseball-Reference WAR,” which ranks Minor as the top pitcher in all of major-league baseball this season (7.0).

Just don’t tell Minor that he’s No. 1.

Because even after pitching 7 1/3 innings of shutout ball against the mighty New York Yankees on Monday, the Texas Rangers veteran southpaw wasn’t buying it.

To be fair to Minor, pitcher WAR can get contested in ways not as common with that for position players…..

 

QLE Posted: September 03, 2019 at 12:22 AM | 28 comment(s)
  Beats: mike minor, war

 

 

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
.
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogRob Manfred has a history of botching investigations
(2 - 5:35pm, Feb 26)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogCan Cleveland Afford Francisco Lindor?
(41 - 5:28pm, Feb 26)
Last: .

NewsblogMadison Bumgarner has been competing in rodeos under a fake name
(73 - 5:27pm, Feb 26)
Last: Banta

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-26-2020
(27 - 5:25pm, Feb 26)
Last: Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020
(673 - 5:25pm, Feb 26)
Last: The_Ex

NewsblogAgent Scott Boras to honor Kobe Bryant's wish with internship for Lexi, daughter of late John Altobe
(13 - 5:19pm, Feb 26)
Last: gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant

NewsblogWe Provide Leverage: A Thought Experiment
(16 - 5:16pm, Feb 26)
Last: bobm

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread 2020
(1477 - 5:13pm, Feb 26)
Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher

NewsblogYankees’ Luis Severino headed for Tommy John surgery
(40 - 4:53pm, Feb 26)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogMLB was told about the Astros’ system years ago and did nothing
(24 - 4:01pm, Feb 26)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (February 2020)
(154 - 3:53pm, Feb 26)
Last: the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB).

NewsblogWhich MLB Teams Will Disappoint in 2020?
(23 - 3:08pm, Feb 26)
Last: Rusty Priske

NewsblogHow Giants, Farhan Zaidi might choose to use new 26th roster spot
(24 - 12:19pm, Feb 26)
Last: Cris E

NewsblogPosnanski: Baseball 100 Rules
(752 - 12:03pm, Feb 26)
Last: TomH

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-25-2020
(14 - 8:03pm, Feb 25)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

Page rendered in 0.9185 seconds
54 querie(s) executed