Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher
Repoz
Editor - Baseball Primer

Syndicate

Zips Newsbeat

Saturday, February 22, 2020

The Obscenely Early ZiPS Projected Standings

Naturally, once the ZiPS elves have finished baking the ZiPS, the first thing I want to do — at least after actually getting some sleep — is to crank out some ZiPS projected standings. So let’s wrap up ZiPS Week (I’m possibly the only person calling it this) by doing the first run of the ZiPS projected standings for the 2020 season.

The methodology I use is not identical to the one we use in our Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season?

Stored within ZiPS is the first through 99th percentile projections for each player it projects. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our depth charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I then make changes based on my personal feelings on who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion. The computational algorithms, that is, not dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond.

After this is done, then ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which changes the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. It then automatically “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to 700 plate appearances for each position and 1458 innings.

As always, something of interest to check at the end of the season, to see what concordance between these predictions and the actual results was present.

 

QLE Posted: February 22, 2020 at 01:04 AM | 4 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, zips

Tuesday, January 07, 2020

MLB.com: Only 23, A 2-Time All-Star ... And He Could Get Better

If true, a pretty good return for not much more than a fortnight of Aroldis Chapman:

FanGraphs senior writer Dan Szymborski hasn’t released his full ZiPS projections for 2020 yet, but he did give a sneak peek at the forecast for Torres’ next five years on Friday as part of his annual recap of the Yankees’ season. Feast your eyes, Yankees fans:

2020: .287/.348/.557; 136 OPS+; 41 HR
2021: .292/.357/.588; 146 OPS+; 44 HR
2022: .289/.357/.586; 145 OPS+; 44 HR
2023: .289/.359/.602; 150 OPS+; 47 HR
2024: .287/.360/.601; 150 OPS+; 47 HR

Make it happen, Lord ZIPS.


Tuesday, October 25, 2011

River Ave Blues: Jesus Montero and ZiPS

And from the comments…“Cano will hit over .299. I’ll bet my life savings on that.” Way over…like this season’s .302!

You might have seen this earlier, but Dan Szymborski posted his 2012 Yankees ZiPS Projections early Monday afternoon, the first team of the offseason. You can click the link and peruse all of the projections at your leisure, but I’m going to spend some time focusing on everyone’s favorite player, Jesus Montero. We’ll discuss the other guys at some point this offseason … eventually.

Following his big September debut (.328/.406/.590 and a .421 wOBA), the ZiPS system forecasts a .271/.333/.486 batting line with 37 doubles and 27 homers in 579 at-bats for Montero in 2012. At first glance, that might seen a bit disappointing because of the generally low AVG and the OBP, but it most definitely shouldn’t be. I said this on Twitter, but if Montero does that next season, he’ll probably win Rookie of the Year even if the majority of his at-bats come as a DH*. ZiPS isn’t being tricked by that big September either, the system called for almost exactly the same thing for 2011: a .276/.334/.503 line with 34 doubles and 28 homers in 539 at-bats.

...We’ve talked about the whole DH/backup catcher thing, but putting it into practice is much easier said than done. The ZiPS numbers don’t mean anything at the end of the day, but they’re a nice little reminder of just how much Montero can help the Yankees if given the chance.

Repoz Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:25 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, sabermetrics, yankees, zips

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

ESPN: Szymborski: A staff for the ages (INSIDER)

n December, the Philadelphia Phillies were revealed to be the notorious “mystery team” in the hunt for Cliff Lee, eventually signing the 2008 AL Cy Young winner to a five-year, $120 million contract. With Philly’s rotation already containing Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the hype surrounding the team’s quartet of starting pitchers reached epic proportions. The hypemakers were wrong—the Phillies’ starters went on to exceed expectations.

After the inking of Lee, we took a look at the Philly front four using the ZiPS projection system. For the Fab Four, we came up with a projection of 19.8 WAR (wins above replacement), which would have given the Phillies the 13th-best top four starters in a rotation since the start of the divisional era in 1969.

Dan Szymborski Posted: September 20, 2011 at 06:06 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: phillies, zips

BPP: An interview with Dan Szymborski

You can’t spell ZiPS without…Dan!

How long ago did you come up with ZiPS?

Szymborski: The genesis of it was there’s a [person] who contributes to Baseball Think Factory named Chris Dial, and in the late ’90s, they were talking about how someone could make a projection system that’s very basic and get most of the way there, in a way kind of a primordial version of Marcel which is a tabulator.

Before 2002, I was thinking maybe I should try my hand at a projection system. At that time, Voros McCracken’s FIPS research was fairly new, so I wanted to [align my idea.] That’s why I made it rhyme with FIPS, and the Z stands for Szymborski, the second letter of my name. I mean, it’s just a little side thing that started. Then I decided to do hitter projections, because it seemed kind of stupid to do because there were not hitter projections. And then over time, as computers got faster, I could do more things. Over time, it became a pretty complex system… I’m pretty happy with how it’s worked out.

Do you think you have another ZiPS idea in you or do you think that’s going to be your big thing?

Szymborski: I dunno. I always kind of think of myself more as a writer than a statistics developer, but I have more ideas how to use it. I continually refine my aging models and long-term projections and the different things I can do with it. I certainly hope there are other ideas in me, but I don’t have those ideas yet. Hopefully they will develop over the next few years.

Repoz Posted: September 20, 2011 at 04:43 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Beats: baseball geeks, media, primate meetups, projections, sabermetrics, site news, zips

 

 

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Tuque
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogMLB was told about the Astros’ system years ago and did nothing
(23 - 2:35pm, Feb 26)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogCan Cleveland Afford Francisco Lindor?
(12 - 2:31pm, Feb 26)
Last: JJ1986

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-26-2020
(17 - 2:28pm, Feb 26)
Last: RJ in TO

NewsblogWe Provide Leverage: A Thought Experiment
(10 - 2:21pm, Feb 26)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread 2020
(1473 - 2:14pm, Feb 26)
Last: Crosseyed and Painless

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020
(663 - 1:55pm, Feb 26)
Last: AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther

NewsblogWhich MLB Teams Will Disappoint in 2020?
(21 - 1:49pm, Feb 26)
Last: Zonk Begs Your Pardon, Mr Blago

NewsblogMadison Bumgarner has been competing in rodeos under a fake name
(70 - 1:38pm, Feb 26)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogYankees’ Luis Severino headed for Tommy John surgery
(30 - 1:29pm, Feb 26)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogAgent Scott Boras to honor Kobe Bryant's wish with internship for Lexi, daughter of late John Altobe
(6 - 12:47pm, Feb 26)
Last: .

NewsblogHow Giants, Farhan Zaidi might choose to use new 26th roster spot
(24 - 12:19pm, Feb 26)
Last: Cris E

NewsblogPosnanski: Baseball 100 Rules
(752 - 12:03pm, Feb 26)
Last: TomH

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (February 2020)
(153 - 10:50am, Feb 26)
Last: reech

NewsblogRob Manfred has a history of botching investigations
(1 - 2:55am, Feb 26)
Last: majorflaw

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-25-2020
(14 - 8:03pm, Feb 25)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

Page rendered in 0.9742 seconds
64 querie(s) executed