Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


Contributors

Jim Furtado
Founder & Publisher

Syndicate

Zips Newsbeat

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Projecting Seiya Suzuki

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, though some of that wouldn’t be part of his contract, with a chunk instead going to the Carp as a posting fee. (Based on the ZiPS’ projected contract, the posting fee would be about $14 million under MLB’s current arrangement with NPB, and I swear, I didn’t change Suzuki’s cut to $69 million in order to make that joke.)

And there’s at least some chance that Suzuki’s deal winds up going even higher for a few reasons not tied to a rigid WAR-to-dollars relationship. The free agent roster for outfielders isn’t particularly deep this winter, giving contending teams a real incentive to be aggressive if that’s where they need help. Also, with the now nearly-certain addition of the universal designated hitter, 15 National League teams need to find 650 plate appearances for a high-offense player. Not every team has that in-house — interleague play isn’t enough to justify NL teams carrying a solid DH — and a league-average corner outfielder or first baseman is going to make a much better DH than a league-average catcher or shortstop would. That could result in a real bonus for Suzuki, along with players like Castellanos, Conforto, Nelson Cruz, and Anthony Rizzo, with Rizzo likely pushing an incumbent first baseman to DH. (Freddie Freeman is the obvious elite option at first base, though he’s already a tier or two above the rest of the free agents in terms of performance and salary, so the universal DH will probably provide less of a boost to his eventual deal.)

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 15, 2022 at 06:45 PM | 20 comment(s)
  Beats: japanese free agents, seiya suzuki, zips

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

River Ave Blues: Jesus Montero and ZiPS

And from the comments…“Cano will hit over .299. I’ll bet my life savings on that.” Way over…like this season’s .302!

You might have seen this earlier, but Dan Szymborski posted his 2012 Yankees ZiPS Projections early Monday afternoon, the first team of the offseason. You can click the link and peruse all of the projections at your leisure, but I’m going to spend some time focusing on everyone’s favorite player, Jesus Montero. We’ll discuss the other guys at some point this offseason … eventually.

Following his big September debut (.328/.406/.590 and a .421 wOBA), the ZiPS system forecasts a .271/.333/.486 batting line with 37 doubles and 27 homers in 579 at-bats for Montero in 2012. At first glance, that might seen a bit disappointing because of the generally low AVG and the OBP, but it most definitely shouldn’t be. I said this on Twitter, but if Montero does that next season, he’ll probably win Rookie of the Year even if the majority of his at-bats come as a DH*. ZiPS isn’t being tricked by that big September either, the system called for almost exactly the same thing for 2011: a .276/.334/.503 line with 34 doubles and 28 homers in 539 at-bats.

...We’ve talked about the whole DH/backup catcher thing, but putting it into practice is much easier said than done. The ZiPS numbers don’t mean anything at the end of the day, but they’re a nice little reminder of just how much Montero can help the Yankees if given the chance.

Repoz Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:25 AM | 24 comment(s)
  Beats: projections, sabermetrics, yankees, zips

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

ESPN: Szymborski: A staff for the ages (INSIDER)

n December, the Philadelphia Phillies were revealed to be the notorious “mystery team” in the hunt for Cliff Lee, eventually signing the 2008 AL Cy Young winner to a five-year, $120 million contract. With Philly’s rotation already containing Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the hype surrounding the team’s quartet of starting pitchers reached epic proportions. The hypemakers were wrong—the Phillies’ starters went on to exceed expectations.

After the inking of Lee, we took a look at the Philly front four using the ZiPS projection system. For the Fab Four, we came up with a projection of 19.8 WAR (wins above replacement), which would have given the Phillies the 13th-best top four starters in a rotation since the start of the divisional era in 1969.

Dan Szymborski Posted: September 20, 2011 at 06:06 PM | 11 comment(s)
  Beats: phillies, zips

BPP: An interview with Dan Szymborski

You can’t spell ZiPS without…Dan!

How long ago did you come up with ZiPS?

Szymborski: The genesis of it was there’s a [person] who contributes to Baseball Think Factory named Chris Dial, and in the late ’90s, they were talking about how someone could make a projection system that’s very basic and get most of the way there, in a way kind of a primordial version of Marcel which is a tabulator.

Before 2002, I was thinking maybe I should try my hand at a projection system. At that time, Voros McCracken’s FIPS research was fairly new, so I wanted to [align my idea.] That’s why I made it rhyme with FIPS, and the Z stands for Szymborski, the second letter of my name. I mean, it’s just a little side thing that started. Then I decided to do hitter projections, because it seemed kind of stupid to do because there were not hitter projections. And then over time, as computers got faster, I could do more things. Over time, it became a pretty complex system… I’m pretty happy with how it’s worked out.

Do you think you have another ZiPS idea in you or do you think that’s going to be your big thing?

Szymborski: I dunno. I always kind of think of myself more as a writer than a statistics developer, but I have more ideas how to use it. I continually refine my aging models and long-term projections and the different things I can do with it. I certainly hope there are other ideas in me, but I don’t have those ideas yet. Hopefully they will develop over the next few years.

Repoz Posted: September 20, 2011 at 04:43 PM | 26 comment(s)
  Beats: baseball geeks, media, primate meetups, projections, sabermetrics, site news, zips

 

 

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Newsblog2022 NBA Playoffs thread
(1863 - 8:24am, May 27)
Last: Cagerfan

NewsblogHow Good Are Those Probabilities on the Apple TV+ Broadcasts?
(2 - 7:20am, May 27)
Last: Paul D(uda)

NewsblogMet Their Match? Infield Defense a Little Off
(4 - 6:14am, May 27)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogYankees sign infielder Matt Carpenter
(5 - 4:08am, May 27)
Last: The Honorable Ardo

NewsblogGammons: While outsiders wonder about the ball, MLB’s pitching coaches fret about finding enough innings
(6 - 4:01am, May 27)
Last: The Honorable Ardo

Sox TherapyOne Step Forward
(29 - 2:28am, May 27)
Last: Jay Seaver

NewsblogMLB, in memo, rebukes clubs for 'unacceptable' workplace facilities for women employees
(2 - 12:31am, May 27)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for Thursday, May 26, 2022
(35 - 12:03am, May 27)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogAnalyzing the early returns from the Blue Jays’ unorthodox defensive experiment
(18 - 9:54pm, May 26)
Last: Paul D(uda)

NewsblogAt long last, a fun new tool at Baseball Savant. Pitch tempo
(2 - 8:17pm, May 26)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogJuan Soto trade rumors: Nationals may be 'motivated' to trade outfielder
(78 - 6:49pm, May 26)
Last: Tony S

NewsblogMLB teams will be allowed to carry 14 pitchers for four more weeks
(37 - 5:37pm, May 26)
Last: Cris E

NewsblogAnaheim City Council votes unanimously to halt the sale of Angel Stadium | LA Times
(18 - 4:06pm, May 26)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

Newsblog3 years later, this trade has flipped in a BIG way
(6 - 3:25pm, May 26)
Last: SoSH U at work

NewsblogWho in MLB is must-see TV right now? This season's most watchable teams and players
(12 - 3:21pm, May 26)
Last: Karl from NY

Page rendered in 0.7405 seconds
61 querie(s) executed