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Tuesday, November 05, 2019

10 players receive qualifying offers

Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY Sports reports that 10 players have received qualifying offers worth $17.8 million each: Josh Donaldson, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, José Abreu, Jake Odorizzi, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Will Smith, and Marcell Ozuna.

The players have 10 days to accept or reject the qualifying offer. Accepting means they are back under contract with the offering team for the 2020 season; rejecting means they become a free agent with draft pick compensation attached to them.

We have talked in the past about how the QO system has hampered free agency. Teams that sign a player who rejected a QO must forfeit at least one draft pick. Teams losing a player who rejected their QO receive at least one draft pick as compensation, though it’s not a direct transfer from the signing team to the previous team. The compensation varies based on the team’s payroll and whether or not it receives revenue sharing.

So, who among these do you suppose will accept the qualifying offer?

 

QLE Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:32 AM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: anthony rendon, gerrit cole, jake odorizzi, jose abreu, josh donaldson, madison bumgarner, marcell ozuna, qualifying offers, stephen strasburg, will smith, zack wheeler

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   1. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:43 AM (#5898673)
So, who among these do you suppose will accept the qualifying offer?

should:
donaldson, smith, odorizzi, bumgarner, ozuna, wheeler

will:
who the #### knows.
   2. jmurph Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:36 AM (#5898716)
I'm probably not as up to date on baseball salaries as I could be, but that seems like a list of guys, after Cole, who are going to have trouble finding deals with this hanging over them. Am I way off? I know Odorizzi, for instance, had a very good year, but it was also by far his career best.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:39 AM (#5898719)
donaldson, smith, odorizzi, bumgarner, ozuna, wheeler


Donaldson got 1/23 last year coming off an injury lost season, and just put up 6 WAR. No way on earth he should take the offer.

The Smith one is crazy though. Why do the Giants want to pay a reliever $18M?
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:41 AM (#5898720)
I'm probably not as up to date on baseball salaries as I could be, but that seems like a list of guys, after Cole, who are going to have trouble finding deals with this hanging over them. Am I way off?
Not way off. But I'd guess that a few of them get surprisingly good deals. Also, I think a couple of them accept the QO, and then one or two break even or lose money on the decision.
   5. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:42 AM (#5898722)
Plus - Gemini Man has gotten really crappy reviews and has underperformed terribly at the box office.

Smith is just not the bankable star he once was.

What?
   6. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:43 AM (#5898723)
Will Smith, huh? Dude earned $4M last year. He must be doing backflips right now. I would've been stoked to get $18M for the next two years.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5898724)
Will Smith, huh? Dude earned $4M last year. He must be doing backflips right now. I would've been stoked to get $18M for the next two years.

No kidding.
   8. Nasty Nate Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5898725)
The Smith one is crazy though. Why do the Giants want to pay a reliever $18M?
I don't think they want to - they want him to decline. He might think he can get 2/$30m or 3/$40m. And they can handle it if he accepts.

I'll predict he accepts.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5898726)
I think Donaldson will be an interesting test case for how stingy teams are being now. He was a legit 5 WAR player. He's also 34, has a bad injury in the recent past. Does anyone want to give him 4 years? 3 years? And many of the spendy teams are already set at the position. He could easily get Keucheled.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5898733)
I think Donaldson will be an interesting test case for how stingy teams are being now. He was a legit 5 WAR player. He's also 34, has a bad injury in the recent past. Does anyone want to give him 4 years? 3 years? And many of the spendy teams are already set at the position. He could easily get Keucheled.

Really? He got 1/23 coming off a much worse season. I would think 2/50 is the absolute floor.
   11. Charles S., looking 4 band-aids instead of dreams Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:00 AM (#5898736)
I think Abreu accepts. He likes playing for the Sox, and he seems good with the direction the team is going. Despite his great RBI season, the market for a 33yo DH/1B with his WAR and OPS numbers is just not that great.
   12. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5898737)
His problem is that there aren't many contender spenders that really need a 3B -- and there will be a better one in Rendon available.

I suppose whoever from the Nats/Cardinals that DOESN'T get Rendon would be in on him....
   13. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:03 AM (#5898739)
Really? He got 1/23 coming off a much worse season. I would think 2/50 is the absolute floor.


He didn't have the draft pick penalty last year. That puts a real damper on his value.

Last year Fangraphs predicted Keuchel to sign for 4 years, $80M.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:04 AM (#5898740)
His problem is that there aren't many contender spenders that really need a 3B -- and there will be a better one in Rendon available.

I suppose whoever from the Nats/Cardinals that DOESN'T get Rendon would be in on him....


Phillies?
   15. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:09 AM (#5898743)
Yeah, I suppose the Phillies seem to have finally come to the realization that Franco isn't that good... EDIT: and Bohm (assuming he sticks at 3B) is probably ~2 years away, so that might be a good fit.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:16 AM (#5898746)
Yeah, I suppose the Phillies seem to have finally come to the realization that Franco isn't that good... EDIT: and Bohm (assuming he sticks at 3B) is probably ~2 years away, so that might be a good fit.

With the advantage that you also take Donaldson away from one of your main rivals.
   17. bfan Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:23 AM (#5898748)
I think Donaldson will be an interesting test case for how stingy teams are being now. He was a legit 5 WAR player. He's also 34, has a bad injury in the recent past.


It occurs to me reading this that the word "stingy" should be replaced by the word "prudent."
   18. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5898749)
Of course, I presume that the Phillies - being the Phillies - have a Plan A of hoping Jose Abreu declines the QO so they can sign him and let Rhys Hoskins make a fool of himself in LF again.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 10:27 AM (#5898751)
It occurs to me reading this that the word "stingy" should be replaced by the word "prudent."

No. Stingy. 3/60 is a nothing contract in today's MLB.
   20. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5898775)
Yeah, I suppose the Phillies seem to have finally come to the realization that Franco isn't that good... EDIT: and Bohm (assuming he sticks at 3B) is probably ~2 years away, so that might be a good fit.
i'd set the over/under at may 1, 2020 for when bohm will become the phillies' everyday 3B. until then, cesar hernandez and/or scott kingery can hold down the fort.

the phillies biggest need (besides the rotation and the bullpen) is in CF.



if i was running the phillies, i'd go all in on variance. give me yasiel puig, michael pineida, drew pomeranz and michael wacha.
   21. Zonk Has Two Faces, Both Laughing Posted: November 05, 2019 at 11:53 AM (#5898777)
i'd set the over/under at may 1, 2020 for when bohm will become the phillies' everyday 3B. until then, cesar hernandez and/or scott kingery can hold down the fort.


That's awfully aggressive... He's had, what, two months? at AA - and while he better than held his own (and had a nice AFL), 2021 seems more likely.
   22. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5898780)
That's awfully aggressive... He's had, what, two months? at AA - and while he better than held his own (and had a nice AFL), 2021 seems more likely.

AAA is superfluous for prospects who are as good as bohm. and it often does more harm than good because there are so many high quality junkballers that good prospects either wind up struggling against them, or making counterproductive adjustments that won't help them at all when they get to MLB.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:07 PM (#5898784)
AAA is superfluous for prospects who are as good as bohm. and it often does more harm than good because there are so many high quality junkballers that good prospects either wind up struggling against them, or making counterproductive adjustments that won't help them at all when they get to MLB.

How is learning to hit junk counterproductive? If you can't recognize/hit curves and change-ups you're going to get carved up in the majors.
   24. The Duke Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:13 PM (#5898786)
I predict the top 4 reject QO

Smith/Abreu accepts QO or accepts a longer term deal with same team
odirrizi accepts QO and comes out next year - I think if he can break out he has a better chance of a bigger pay day next yea
Bumgarner and wheeler have a tough decision - I predict Bumgarner comes out while wheeler stays mostly because the giants suck and the Mets could be a contender
Ozuna either negotiates a deal with Cards or doesn’t accept

It’s hard not to accept if you are marginal. $18 million pay day settles you for life and let’s you come back to market to get full value in a year
   25. flournoy Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5898793)
Smith would have to be bonkers to reject the Giants' offer, right? $18M is way more than a good but unremarkable 30 year old left handed short reliever could expect. No team would be willing to sacrifice their first round pick to sign him either, so if he rejects the offer, he won't sign until June.
   26. Nasty Nate Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:35 PM (#5898796)
Well he is a *closer* now ...
   27. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5898798)
How is learning to hit junk counterproductive? If you can't recognize/hit curves and change-ups you're going to get carved up in the majors.

facing pitchers who top out in the high 80s slows down your reaction time and your hand-eye coordination, which makes it harder to catch up to MLB quality fastballs. AAA can also screw with your plate discipline if you start chasing borderline fastballs to avoid going down in the count.

now you're free to say that 'if players can't do it in AAA, they won't be able to do it in the majors', but that's just not been true. firstly: most players can't do it in the majors, so there's an element of selection bias in there, but also, lots of prospects skip AAA entirely and wind up doing fine, just fine.



the best case scenario is that bohm is already good enough to crush AAA from day 1, in which case staying there longer than a month is unnecessary.

the worst case scenario is that bohm struggles in AAA, and he winds up losing a year and a half of development while learning how to tread water in quicksand.

even in that worst case scenario, bohm is better served by having his struggles come against MLB pitching and then going back down to the minors to work out the flaws, rather than not even having a chance to face major league pitching in the first place.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:43 PM (#5898801)
facing pitchers who top out in the high 80s slows down your reaction time and your hand-eye coordination, which makes it harder to catch up to MLB quality fastballs.

I'd have to say this is demonstrably false. If it were true they wouldn't take batting practice against 55 y.o.s throwing 75 MPH.
   29. flournoy Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:49 PM (#5898804)
Ha... I completely missed that Will Smith was the Giants' closer. I think of him as a middle reliever (to the extent that I think of him at all). I don't think teams are really spending big money for save totals anymore though, so the point stands.
   30. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5898808)
I also don't see any reason to think that AAA pitchers throw softer than AA pitchers.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 05, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5898812)
I also don't see any reason to think that AAA pitchers throw softer than AA pitchers.

True, but even if by some oddity they did, if you can't handle the guy with an 88 MPH fastball and a good curve/change, the guy throwing 96 MPH with a good curve/change is going to embarrass you.
   32. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5898850)
I'd have to say this is demonstrably false. If it were true they wouldn't take batting practice against 55 y.o.s throwing 75 MPH.

are those 55 year olds throwing from 60'6" away? no, right.

those 55 year olds throw BP from ~45 feet away, which allows hitters approximate their reaction time for a 90+ MPH fastball.
I also don't see any reason to think that AAA pitchers throw softer than AA pitchers.
that misses the point.

when a AA junkballer has a good season, he gets promoted to AAA the next season.
when a AAA junkballer has a good season, he'll probably still start next season in AAA.


which is to say: talent passes through AA, but it tends to accumulate in AAA.

but then, because MLB tends to select for velocity, the kind of talents who accumulate in AAA aren't the ones who throw 95; they're the ones who are lucky to throw 91.


   33. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5898879)
Should accept before I have time to post this: Smith
Tough decision: Abreu (I would), Ozuna
Probably shouldn't: Bumgarner, Wheeler, Odorizzi
Obviously shouldn't: Cole, Stras, Donaldson, Rendon

It's a gift to Smith as noted already. Abreu's choice is basically whether he'd prefer something like 2/$25-30 (with the risk of being frozen out) or staying in Chicago at 1/$18 and see what happens. Ozuna should probably lean no since, at his age, he should be able to get 3-4 years at some reasonable price but the Cards are a good fit for him and a big year followed by no QO could work out well for him.

Bumgarner is still a very good pitcher. No he's not getting 5/$125 or anything like that but 3/$45-4/$60 is his when he wants it. If most GMs were like me then Wheeler would be thinking seriously about taking that QO but he seems to get a lot more buzz than I think he deserves. I was going to put Odorizzi in one of the first two categories but he's had better peripherals than I thought -- and a big jump in K-rate and he seemed to keep the HR under control this year. He's not looking at a massive payday but he should be able to get a multi-year contract without much concern.

I don't think teams are really spending big money for save totals anymore though, so the point stands.

It's not clear they ever paid big money for save totals but they have always and still pay big money for "top" closers. Chapman just added another 1/$18 to his deal; the Cubs have Kimbrel at 2/$32; the Mets don't pay him much but gave up good talent to get Diaz. Now Smith is not a top closer so no he won't get top closer money ... but guys like Smith (great K-rate, good track record) regularly get AAVs of $8-9 these days and a couple of them might have broken the $10 barrier. He can probably get something like 2/$18 or 3/$24 ... but of course he should take 1/$18 in that scenario. I don't know what the Giants think they're doing here -- just offer him the 2/$18 or whatever and keep him around. Smith's best-case scenario is the silly deal the Cubs gave Morrow a couple of years back and 1/$18 and take your chances is still better than that.

On AAA and stuff:

1. It's true many hitting prospects skip AAA these days.
2. Which doesn't tell us whether that's a good idea or not, just tells us teams have decided it's OK.
3. Of course many still do spend time there (Alonso an obvious example)
4. There's pretty much zero chance Bohm is up as early as May 1. Even if he does well, he's exactly the sort of prospect you wait for the super-2 deadline to call up.
5. He hardly looks to be knocking on the door anyway. MLB.com puts him #34 and still gives him a ETA of 2021. His AA performace was solid but not spectacular -- a nice low K-rate but somehow also a very pedestrian BA ... and I notice a lot of GDP. Did have a very nice AFL.
   34. Sunday silence Posted: November 05, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5898918)
That's all very informative Walt, thank you. BUt there's one more question hanging out there:

Is it detrimental to hang around in AAA if you're already MLB ready? (assume for this that Bohm is passable as a MLB player)

Calming seems to have dug in on his position, and yet I still think the conventional wisdom is that it cant hurt if you're young. Is there any evidence for this?
   35. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: November 05, 2019 at 06:21 PM (#5898935)
The Smith offer is just...baffling. The Giants will be awful next year but if both Smith and Bumgarner take these offers then, woof, they won't be able to afford even cosmetic signings.
   36. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2019 at 07:52 PM (#5898946)
Is it detrimental to hang around in AAA if you're already MLB ready?

I don't know how this could be answered given the data we have. Personally I think it's a bad idea but that depends somewhat on how "ready" the guy is. My guess is that once it's clear the guy is smacking around AA/AAA then he knows he has nothing left to learn there and, if the team keeps him stuck there, he "realizes" that there's nothing more he can do and that's not a good place to be.

He was likely never going to be a quality MLer or even an average one but I think a classic example was an old Cubs prospect named Roosevelt Brown. He had shown reasonable progress through AA then mid-1999 got promoted to AAA where he hit 358/401/713. That wasn't good enough for the Cubs to give him a real shot so then he hit 309/381/496 at AAA and 352/378/538 in 100 ML PAs. Still not good enough for the Cubs. In 2001 at AAA he hit 346/381/626 which got him another 100 ML PAs or a reasonably solid 265/326/506. Out of options now, the Cubs finally did carry him for a full season as a 26-year-old bench player and he stunk. Went to Japan for a couple of good seasons before coming back for final, solid AAA season.

Like I said, I have no idea if he'd have made it or not, probably not. But when you hit 358/401/713 in a half-season at AAA, you've got to start thinking you're ready. Fine, they suggest that might be a fluke and you follow that up with a solid AAA season and a big 100 PA in the majors. He's sticking with it though and OPS's over 1000 ... and that's still only worth a Sept call-up ... during which he hits just fine. He's now over 1000 AAA PAs with an OPS around 950 and his last 190 ML PAs an OPS of 876 -- what more can he reasonably do? Who could blame him for basically giving up.

He also got caught in some extra-special Dusty mind games. Patterson was having a terrible spring so about a week before the season started, the Cubs heavily hinted Brown would be the opening day CF. This apparently was done to motivate Patterson and it "worked" in that he tore it up for the last week or two to win the job. I think that was 2002 and Patterson carried his hot streak through April (889 OPS) ... then put up a 636 OPS the rest of the way. In fairness, Patterson was a much, much better defensive CF than Brown who was better suited to a corner. Also that 2001-2 offseason, the Cubs signed Moises Alou for LF and with Sammy in RF, Brown had no spot other than Patterson's. The question was whether to sign Alou or give Brown his shot -- looked like a very bad decision in the first year as Alou had just a 100 OPS+ and 0.2 WAR; didn't look so great in 2003 either as Alou had just a 111 OPS+ and 1.1 WAR; then at age 37, he bounced back to a 132 OPS+ and 4 WAR. j

Dusty was particularly good at that -- looking past AAA numbers and not giving (some) kids a shot with Choi and good ol' Matt Murton being others that spring to mind ... but none of those guys did much anywhere else either so there's clearly no way to "prove" Dusty got it wrong.

As to Bohm or hypothetical Bohm -- I don't necessarily think a player should come up the second he's probably "ready." Depends a lot on what we mean by "ready" -- for example, I wouldn't call him up to be a bench player this year even if I thought he'd be a solid ML bench player. I probably wouldn't call him up to be a 1.5 WAR starter -- would depend. Once he's projected to be average or better, I'd strongly consider it. But, per the Brown example, that would depend on what he'd done in the minors. If he'd already had 1.5 years at AA/AAA with, say, a 950 OPS then even if he projected as below-average, I think it's time to either give him a shot or send him elsewhere ... that player doesn't seem to have anything left to learn at AA/AAA. But that's not Bohm -- he's got a half-season of solid AA performance and an excellent AFL. Now if he tears up spring, puts up 6 weeks of 1000 OPS at AA then I probably promote him to AAA and get him up at what I hope is the super-2 deadline ... or possibly earlier if the numbers are just nuts and I really need a 3B. For "nuts", take a look at Stanton's 2010 AA numbers.

I don't follow prospects closely. I'm not the guy who's gonna recognize that 21-year Lindor should start the year at AAA much less that he's gonna hit better after his promotion to MLB. I generally only criticize delayed promotions when the guy has mashed to the extent he pretty clearly has nothing left to learn (with the bat at least) and I don't see what more he could possibly due to earn the promotion. I will also sometimes criticize a signing like the aging Alou when a team seems to have an adequate in-house option waiting at AAA but that's more about money and my projections for the aging player than any special insight on the prospect. I make no pretense of having any insight on Bohm the individual -- I'm just going by his ranking (and I only checked one), his brief time at AA and his non-spectacular AA performance and concluding that he's not likely a guy who will be up by May 1 (barring ML injury).
   37. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5898959)
As to Bohm or hypothetical Bohm -- I don't necessarily think a player should come up the second he's probably "ready." Depends a lot on what we mean by "ready" -- for example, I wouldn't call him up to be a bench player this year even if I thought he'd be a solid ML bench player. I probably wouldn't call him up to be a 1.5 WAR starter -- would depend. Once he's projected to be average or better, I'd strongly consider it. But, per the Brown example, that would depend on what he'd done in the minors. If he'd already had 1.5 years at AA/AAA with, say, a 950 OPS then even if he projected as below-average, I think it's time to either give him a shot or send him elsewhere ... that player doesn't seem to have anything left to learn at AA/AAA. But that's not Bohm -- he's got a half-season of solid AA performance and an excellent AFL. Now if he tears up spring, puts up 6 weeks of 1000 OPS at AA then I probably promote him to AAA and get him up at what I hope is the super-2 deadline ... or possibly earlier if the numbers are just nuts and I really need a 3B. For "nuts", take a look at Stanton's 2010 AA numbers.

i just completely disagree with your view of bohm's performance.

at 22 years old, he was 2 years younger than league average
a 28:38 BB:K ratio demonstrates an advanced feel for the strike zone.
his OPS was the 7th best in the eastern league.
he only hit .269, but even that ranked 24th out of 100 qualified hitters. only 2 hitters in the eastern league topped a .300 batting average.

for the environment he was playing in (unlike AAA and MLB, the balls in AA were not juiced), bohm's performance was very good, bordering on great.


the other part of it is that bohm has hit everywhere he's been. he hit at wichita state; he hit in the cape cod league; he hit in A+; he hit in AA; he hit in the AFL. he's not some random 25 year old getting fat off a bunch of teenagers; he's only 22, going on 23.


this is the kind of guy who should get pushed to the stratosphere, imo.



also, fwiw, i trust girardi with bohm's development a hell of a lot more than i'd trust anyone who was hired to coach in the phillies' minor league system.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:32 PM (#5898967)
This thread: Phillies fan loves Phillies prospect.
   39. JJ1986 Posted: November 05, 2019 at 09:38 PM (#5898969)
I keep reading Bohm and thinking TJ Bohn, who was probably never ready for the majors.
   40. Rally Posted: November 06, 2019 at 08:17 AM (#5899015)
He didn't have the draft pick penalty last year. That puts a real damper on his value.


It's not like the old days where contending teams would have to give up a (non top 10) first rounder to sign a free agent. Whoever signs Donaldson will give up a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Is that pick enough to drop his value from 23 million to under 18?

And that's without even considering he's coming off a 6 WAR season instead of a 1.2.
   41. Walt Davis Posted: November 06, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5899214)
I will say I was surprised Donaldson got $23 M last year for his make-good contract. I would have thought something like $18 last year.
   42. Nasty Nate Posted: November 14, 2019 at 05:10 PM (#5901212)
Reportedly, Abreu and Odorizzi will accept. Smith will decline and get 3/$40m from Braves.
   43. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 14, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5901214)
I'm surprised Odorizzi accepted, and that Smith already got a deal. There were rumors the Sox were trying to get a long term deal with Abreu, but it's no surprise he accepted.
   44. Nasty Nate Posted: November 14, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5901221)
I think the others declined.
   45. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 14, 2019 at 11:11 PM (#5901296)
Smith will decline and get 3/$40m from Braves


So he doesn't think he'd get better than 2/$22m after spending an extra year with the team and then going into free agency without draft pick compensation hanging over him?

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