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Thursday, September 28, 2023

12 lessons from the first season under new rules

1) Obviously, game times shortened.

There is no bigger takeaway from the timer, of course. As of this writing, the average nine-inning game time is 2 hours, 40 minutes—a decrease of 24 minutes when compared to the same number of games in 2022 and the lowest such average since 1985 (2:39).

If we control for the run environment and events that typically increase game time (such as mid-inning pitching changes), then the year-over-year decline in nine-inning game times is 26 minutes.

And if you go back to 2021, which was an all-time high of 3:10 per game, we are down a half-hour compared to two seasons ago.

2) Game times did lengthen slightly in the second half.

Digging deeper, we do see a rise in game times within 2023 as players became more familiar with the nuances of the timer rules. In the first three weeks of the season, the average nine-inning game time was 2:38. In the most recent three-week span, the average time was 2:44.

How has this happened? One veteran pitcher said that he’s learned to be comfortable stepping off the mound and using one of his allotted disengagements, rather than rush a pitch with a runner on base. That’s an interesting observation, because, as you’ll see later in this piece, the fewest violations have occurred between pitches with a runner aboard. When pitchers let the timer wind down and then step off, it adds 20 seconds to the at-bat. So that’s one example of how adaptation to the timer has slightly expanded game times within the season.

All that said… even if every nine-inning game were 2:44, that would still be the lowest average since 1986.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 28, 2023 at 09:23 AM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pitch clock

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   1. The Duke Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6142563)
I doubt they will do more with shifts than they have already done but I'd love to see them push the 2B and SS back to their "natural" positions.

I really wish they'd reduce replay. Those are time consuming. That alone has to be 5-10 minutes a game assuming 2-3 reviews. Why not just go to one review for each team and you don't get to keep it if you win. If you do that you remove all the ticky tack replay reviews because no one will waste their one review on that stuff. It will only be used in big moments. I'd also remove its usage for plays at the plate - talk about killing the excitement of the moment.

I'm surprised the stolen base numbers aren't better but I suspect teams will re-prioritize player development to speed and these numbers will keep edging up.


Don't chicken out on ABS. Sooner the better. !!!
   2. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:38 AM (#6142569)
Replay should be the review judge spending 30 seconds looking at the replay at real-time speed. If it isn't immediately obvious the call was wrong, it stands. Play on. It can be done in the time it takes for the next at-bat to begin.
   3. Moeball Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:40 AM (#6142570)
Shifts aren't the problem. They've been around for several decades. Idiots who don't know how to adapt to them are the problem. Don't change the rules to cater to idiots.
   4. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:44 AM (#6142572)
Shifts are a rational adjustment to a hitter who is always trying to hit a home run. Shifting moved from occasional to incessant as baseball moved from only a few of the biggest power hitters trying to hit a home run on every pitch to every player trying to hit a home run on every pitch.

Now that the clock and the limit on throws to bases are in place, the next big thing that needs to happen is that steps need to be taken to make it pessimal for 70% of major league hitters to try to hit a home run every time up. Once that's done, you won't need to ban shifts.
   5. JRVJ Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:22 PM (#6142575)
I'd say that the 2023 rule changes have been largely successful. And even moreso, they haven't been all that invasive, once the original shock wore off.

I hope this means that the grandees at MLB keep on tinkering, and finding other tweaks here and there that can make the game more watchable.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:22 PM (#6142576)
I was against the ban on defensive shifts, but really its been fine. The shortstop can still play up the middle against lefties, and I haven't really noticed the ban. Anymore regulation of defense would be micromanaging I think.
   7. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:25 PM (#6142577)
As a kid in the early 1980s, I remember the "classic debate" about whether or not there should be designated hitters. That seems so antiquated now (both the debate itself, as well as the idea that there would be decade-long Hatfield vs McCoy arguments between National League fans and American League fans).

One lesson from these rules changes? Most fans are fine with most rule changes. Think of the biggest changes to major sports in the last, whatever, half century in the U.S. - I believe the time required for most of the fan bases to basically accept rules changes is much shorter now than it was 50 years ago. Technology, the way information is consumed, demographic changes...there are probably several reasons this is so.

   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:30 PM (#6142578)
I still hate the extra inning runner rule with the fire of a thousand suns.
   9. Der-K's no Kliph Nesteroff. Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:34 PM (#6142581)
i'm not an anti change person and like or tolerate (shift ban) most of these.
i HATE the extra inning rule
   10. Tony S Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:41 PM (#6142583)
Never cared for the DH, but it's reality. I liked the elegance of nine vs. nine.

Pitch clock has worked great. Shift ban has been relatively inconsequential.

I'm with RR on the Manfred Man. It's grossly distorted the game in its most exciting moments. The clock has already made the games brisker; the MM is like taking two extra Tylenols to relieve your headache and damaging your liver in the process. But at least we won't have it in the playoffs.
   11. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 28, 2023 at 12:59 PM (#6142586)
I would rather they just called it a tie after, say, 12 innings than have the farcical Manfred Man.
   12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 28, 2023 at 01:34 PM (#6142591)
Agree with 11.
   13. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 28, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6142594)
I would prefer to see the Ghost Runner not appear until the 11th or 12th. Ties are lame.
   14. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 28, 2023 at 02:35 PM (#6142597)
Ties are fine. It's not like soccer where half the games are ties. If the rule was after 12 innings it's a tie, you'd get three or four of them a week leaguewide. It would be fine.
   15. SandyRiver Posted: September 28, 2023 at 03:31 PM (#6142607)
My first choice would be to dump the MM, but 2nd choice is #13 - give the teams 2 innings to win the natural way then send in the ghosts.
   16. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: September 28, 2023 at 04:23 PM (#6142619)
Guys, we want faster baseball, not less baseball. 17 inning games are great. If you don't want to watch the whole thing, go to bed. But don't ruin it for everyone else. Ties would be better than zombie runners, but both are bad.
   17. bookbook Posted: September 28, 2023 at 04:51 PM (#6142626)
I say eliminate the Manfred man. Then, after 12 innings, go full silly season: home team gets to choose the showdown: homer contest, base stealing brawl, or bunt-a-thon. Then have the showdown, soccer-style, and declare a winner.
   18. bookbook Posted: September 28, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6142627)
There should be more steals, especially with that new mitt protecting players' hands, but stealing is still hard and takes a physical toll.

Catcher arms are going to be stressed more in development once again, so there are reasons that steal attempts might not go up from here.
   19. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 28, 2023 at 05:01 PM (#6142630)
I know you guys are calling it a Manfred Man as an insult, but if you keep it up, it will forever be called that, and millions of people will think that it is an honorific.
   20. The Duke Posted: September 28, 2023 at 05:53 PM (#6142644)
Yeah the Manfred Man rule is the worst rule ever. So anti - baseball. I'm ok if you did it in the 12th. I'd be more ok with removing an outfielder than I am with the runner on second
   21. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: September 28, 2023 at 06:54 PM (#6142653)
Guys, we want faster baseball, not less baseball. 17 inning games are great. If you don't want to watch the whole thing, go to bed. But don't ruin it for everyone else. Ties would be better than zombie runners, but both are bad.

I generally agree with this, but the league and the teams and the players seem to all want to get rid of extra-long games with all haste. Tie-after-12 is the best way I can think of to do that. (It also has the side benefit of making it roughly 50% less likely that a playoff race will be decided by statistical tiebreaker, since we've disposed of single-game playoffs.)
   22. SoSH U at work Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:41 PM (#6142696)

I know you guys are calling it a Manfred Man as an insult, but if you keep it up, it will forever be called that, and millions of people will think that it is an honorific.


Fine, then call it the zombie runner. Just don't call it a ghost runner because a) it's the opposite of a ghost runner, who earned his place on the bases but had to be removed for practical matters and was replaced by a spectre, while this creature was formerly extinguished but has been reanimated at second base, and b) the ghost runner is a figure of honor, a valuable contributor to backyard games the world over. This is an abomination.
   23. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 29, 2023 at 11:52 AM (#6142735)
No, let's stick with Manfred Man. It is so obviously and egregiously a bad idea that keeping his name attached to it will only bring Manfred the shame he so richly deserves.

Although--I admit to entertaining mixed feelings now. I feel that finally getting the players to quit dicking around and play baseball was worth almost anything else I might have to pay, as fan. Maybe even the Manfred Man.
   24. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 30, 2023 at 05:04 PM (#6142884)
Yeah the Manfred Man rule is the worst rule ever.

For the record, Manfred Mann's biggest hit contains the words "Indians", "runner" and "manager".

get rid of extra-long games with all haste. Tie-after-12 is the best way I can think of to do that.

My brother once played in a softball tournament with a bajillion teams. All games ended after one hour (even if in mid-inning) and if the score was tied...paper rock scissors. (I kid you not.)
   25. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 30, 2023 at 05:12 PM (#6142886)
For the record, Manfred Mann's biggest hit contains the words "Indians", "runner" and "manager".
Along with about 73 percent of all the other words in the English language. Young Bruce in his “more is more” wordplay stage.
   26. ReggieThomasLives Posted: September 30, 2023 at 10:33 PM (#6142915)
Better than the manfred msn would be first to score in extras wins. If that’s too harsh for home team, let them bat after road team scores but still lose if they only tie it.
   27. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 01, 2023 at 09:40 AM (#6142963)
Replay should be the review judge spending 30 seconds looking at the replay at real-time speed. If it isn't immediately obvious the call was wrong, it stands. Play on. It can be done in the time it takes for the next at-bat to begin.


Under your proposed system, is the Denkinger call 'obviously wrong'?
   28. BDC Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:14 PM (#6142986)
I hate the zombies too. I'd prefer removing a defender. To make it more interesting they could also stop the shift ban in extra innings. Make the defense get creative with pitcher, catcher, and six guys they can place anywhere in fair territory (one with a first-baseman's mitt). Premium on being able to put the ball in play. The guy removed would stay in as a second DH; no need to disrupt the batting order.
   29. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 01, 2023 at 01:15 PM (#6142987)
Yes, of course it was. At full speed on first viewing he was very obviously out.
   30. Jay Seaver Posted: October 02, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6143122)
I hate the zombies too. I'd prefer removing a defender. To make it more interesting they could also stop the shift ban in extra innings.


Or, alternately, recognize that extra innings are relatively rare and games that get past 10 or 11 innings are exceedingly rare, enough that they're actually worth preserving because having the potential for something rare and unusual is a good thing. The weird game that just would not end and wound up with folks playing out of position and the next day's pitcher warming up in the 15th is a memorable story folks repeat for years.

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