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Friday, November 29, 2019

2019 Non-Tender Candidates - MLB Trade Rumors

As we do each year at MLBTR, we’re providing a list of players whose teams could potentially elect not to tender them a contract, thus sending them into the free-agent pool earlier than expected. It should be emphasized that we’re not indicating that each of these players is likely to be non-tendered (though that’s certainly the case with some of them). Typically, we list any player for which we can envision at least a 10-20 percent chance of a non-tender.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 29, 2019 at 05:33 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents, non-tenders

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   1. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: November 29, 2019 at 08:02 PM (#5904499)
I’m surprised they don’t list Jackie Bradley Jr. I think it’s probably 50-50 that the Sox cut bait on JBJ.
   2. Meatwad Posted: November 29, 2019 at 09:42 PM (#5904503)
Addison russell is number 1. If only we had traded him instead of torres.
   3. The Duke Posted: November 29, 2019 at 10:04 PM (#5904506)
Culberson would be a great get. Can’t imagine the Braves will non-tender
   4. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 30, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5904561)
If Pillar can still play CF reasonably well, I'd love for the Mets to grab him.
   5. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: November 30, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5904566)
Word around Crew is that Arcia will be nonned
   6. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 30, 2019 at 02:42 PM (#5904571)
After the Urias addition, Arcia is redundant. Urias might not hit, but Arcia definitely won't hit. And his rField numbers are nothing to write home about; small sample (and SS of field statistics, so run for the hills!) but Urias in 71 games in 2019 recorded more rField than Arcia did in 152 games. Positional differences and all, but Urias sure looks like the better bet.
   7. DCA Posted: November 30, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5904580)
Arcia is projected for only $2.7m in arb. He's only once been above replacement value, but he's young, he can field the position, and not too long ago he could sort of hit. Given the lack of internal options for the backup SS / glove-first utility IF role, why not? Urias is no sure thing and you need something better than Tyler Saladino as the plan B at the position (who also could be chopped).
   8. Bourbon Samurai stays in the fight Posted: November 30, 2019 at 05:58 PM (#5904593)
For the Nats, it probably makes sense to non-tender WIlmer Difo, who got supplanted as the backup infielder by Sanchez last year, and keep Hunter Strickland and Javy Guerra. Koda Glover I could go either way on, doubt he's useful, but I feel like it's more likely he's just hurt all year rather than performing badly. It's only 700 k so I suppose another year to see if he can stay healthy might be worthwhile.
   9. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: November 30, 2019 at 09:58 PM (#5904643)
I cannot believe Cesar Hernandez is still in the arb years. Anyway, please keep him and waive Maikel Franco.
   10. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 01, 2019 at 12:01 AM (#5904661)
DFA both, that’s too much money for Cesar.
   11. Darren Posted: December 01, 2019 at 10:04 AM (#5904681)
I agree Jose, especially since Pillar is on the list. They're in the same situation, almost exactly.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2019 at 02:13 PM (#5904696)
DFA both, that’s too much money for Cesar.

The guy was above-average last year and 10 WAR over the last 4 years. $12 is an easy yes -- you won't find it any cheaper on the FA market and you'll have to go multiple years to get it at that price. Even if one thinks $12 is a bit much, avoiding the hassle/risk of replacemeent is worth a couple mill on a 1-year contract. Especially for a team trying to contend. (Franco should be gone though.)

Brewers have an interesting call on Shaw. MLBTR projects just $4.7 M which is not a lot of money but 2019 was a disaster. I have no idea if any negotiations took place but Shaw is the kind of guy who should have sought an arb/FA buyout deal. He wasn't turning FA until 32 anyway and might have been able to lock up something like $35 M.

Wow -- Blake Treinin. 2018: 531 ERA+, 11.2/2.4 K/BB, 0.2 HR/9 ... 2019: 88 ERA+, 9.1/5.7, 1.4

   13. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 01, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5904713)
For the Nats, it probably makes sense to non-tender WIlmer Difo, who got supplanted as the backup infielder by Sanchez last year, and keep Hunter Strickland and Javy Guerra.
The Nationals re-signed Difo for $1M, avoiding arbitration, where Wilmer had been pegged to earn a bit more. Not a sure thing he makes the team, apparently.
   14. Dock Ellis Posted: December 02, 2019 at 08:35 AM (#5904766)
I find Chad Pinder's inclusion on this list interesting, considering his multi-positional skills. He didn't have a great year with the bat but he's been above-average before and seems right up Oakland's alley as a roster piece.
   15. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: December 02, 2019 at 10:04 AM (#5904792)
If only we had traded him instead of torres.

I agree he's gone now, but this just would have kept the Cubs from winning the WS in 2016.
   16. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5904862)
The market will be rich with decent second basemen and Cesar's WARs are partly that high because of heavy PT. He's a slightly below average bat and average-ish glove at second ... and second base, imo, has a higher replacement level more generally than other spots and our WAR calcs don't account for that. I don't think he's a problem at that price but there are other ways I'd hypothetically spend that money. (Caveat: I don't know how Cesar is in the clubhouse, which matters some.)

Having said that, the argument that avoiding hassle/risk is worth some money is a solid one -- depending on what else Philly has planned. I'm not losing sleep over this either way.
   17. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: December 02, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5904878)
(for that matter, they could've gotten villar, presumably, for peanuts - who i think is slightly better and slightly cheaper, but they may have reasons to avoid him)
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5904920)
I find Chad Pinder's inclusion on this list interesting, considering his multi-positional skills. He didn't have a great year with the bat but he's been above-average before and seems right up Oakland's alley as a roster piece.


His exit velocity and hard hit % are both pretty good, too. Makes me wonder whether there might be some untapped potential there.

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