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Wednesday, December 23, 2020

2021 BBHOF Tracker Summary and Leaderboard – Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker

Tracking the tracker.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 23, 2020 at 07:14 AM | 634 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   401. Ron J Posted: January 07, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#5997908)
Flip
   402. John DiFool2 Posted: January 07, 2021 at 12:10 PM (#5997913)
Wilson
   403. alilisd Posted: January 07, 2021 at 12:47 PM (#5997923)
Would juicing help with that? Maybe a little, but I doubt there's as much benefit to Maddux adding a little more strength than there is a powerlifter doing likewise.


To be perfectly honest I posted that in the middle of the night last night because I couldn't sleep, so maybe it was not particularly coherent :-)

To this I would say, no, AAS as a PED would not aid his command or intelligence as a pitcher in terms of adding strength or power. He would benefit from his ability to express that command to the fullest/best extent, without loss of velocity over the course of a season, or game to game, due to improved recovery between starts.
   404. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2021 at 01:10 PM (#5997934)
He would benefit from his ability to express that command to the fullest/best extent, without loss of velocity over the course of a season, or game to game, due to improved recovery between starts.


Sounds likely, but it's not a guarantee. I don't know that bulking up and gaining a few MPH on his fastball wouldn't have come with a slight decline in his amazing command. On the other side of the ball, Gabe Kapler was undeniably a better player before he went all behemoth.

And again, the gains aren't as direct. For argument's sake let's say being a good pitcher is 45 percent skill, 35 percent strength/athleticism/fitness, 20 percent brains (the exact numbers are immaterial). The PEDs are only going to help with the 35 percent of the equation. A sport where the balance is greater on the athleticism/fitness side (sprinting, most football positions), say 75 percent-25 percent, the value of PEDs is going to be greater.

There were people here arguing there was no proof that PEDs helped in baseball at all. I think that's folly, but I really can't imagine how they would help as much as they do in some other sports.
   405. Rally Posted: January 07, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#5997945)
Kapler? My recollection is he was jacked as a minor leaguer. His bodybuilding is what turned him from a 57th rounder to a real prospect.

Ruben Sierra was a better player before he bulked up.
   406. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#5997948)
My recollection is he was jacked as a minor leaguer.


He was never small, but I thought he was bigger post-Texas.

   407. Rally Posted: January 07, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#5997951)
On how effective steroids are, all I can add is that for players who get suspended, when they return how should you adjust your projections?

The answer is, not at all. Knowing a player was suspended for steroids adds nothing to what to expect in his future projections.

This could mean:

1. Steroids don’t help
2. Players who get caught will keep using, and just try harder not to get caught.
3. Steroids help you play better baseball even after you stop using them

But what it can’t support is this:
Steroids make you much better, players who get caught will stop using, and their performance suffers after returning from suspension.
   408. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 07, 2021 at 01:46 PM (#5997958)
This:

On how effective steroids are, all I can add is that for players who get suspended, when they return how should you adjust your projections?

The answer is, not at all. Knowing a player was suspended for steroids adds nothing to what to expect in his future projections.


is huge. And it should get a lot more attention. It's been known for a while now (probably because this isn't the first time Rally has posted it). But why talking heads to blather about the sanctity of the game don't know this (or ignore it if they do), is beyond me.


Just for the sake of completeness, however, there is another possible explanation:

4. Steroids help some players and hurt others, and on aggregate it all comes out in the wash.

Now, what makes 4 unlikely is that it would be a neat coincidence if steroids hurt one class of players just as much as they helped another, such that a "used steroids" parameter doesn't give a model any extra explanatory power. On the other hand, some of the other possible explanations also have their problems. Re: 1, Bonds turned into Superman. I suppose it's possible that he wasn't using and is the unique player in history to suddenly turn into Babe Ruth in his late 30s, but...

Re: 2, if this was correct, we'd have to assume that they all keep using, and all get good enough that they don't get caught a second time (Manny excepted), or else knowing that they used steroids would have *some* predictive value.
   409. alilisd Posted: January 07, 2021 at 05:53 PM (#5998082)
Sounds likely, but it's not a guarantee.


Oh it's absolutely a guarantee. Just do some research on the effects of AAS on the body. Increased recovery from physical effort is one of the key benefits of using, which is almost entirely overlooked by people who only focus on their ability to add muscle. In fact, the increased recovery ability is essentially why increased muscle mass is added (it's more complex than this, of course, but this is a clear, simple way to look at it, and not at all inaccurate).

This is a simplification, but basically muscle is built in response to a stimulus/stress typically caused by exercise, most commonly resistance training. But it is not built in the gym, that is only the stimulus, it is in the day or so following the stimulus that the body responds by adding muscle. Regardless of what that stimulus is the increased recovery capacity is there, and the body will use it and benefit from it, whether it's a resistance training program, or a game of baseball. The recovery response from a baseball game will not be increased muscle mass because that was not the stimulus provided, but it will result in more rapid reduction in inflammation and soreness, and a quicker return to baseline for a pitcher using AAS.
   410. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#5998088)
I meant that it’s not guaranteed that adding velocity would enable him to optimize his command. I don’t think that’s guaranteed.

The recovery stuff is unarguable.
   411. kwarren Posted: January 07, 2021 at 10:52 PM (#5998166)
BB-Ref leaderboard
Postseason Win Probability Added (WPA) (Career)
Rank. Player
1. David Ortiz 3.2 369 PA
2. Albert Pujols 2.9 334 PA
3. Justin Turner 2.7 314 PA
4. Lance Berkman 2.7 224 PA
5. Pete Rose 2.6 301 PA


Barry Bonds 1.18 208 PA
Babe Ruth 1.20 167 PA

Mariano Rivera 4.27
Sandy Koufax 1.51
   412. kwarren Posted: January 07, 2021 at 11:02 PM (#5998168)
BB-Ref leaderboard
Postseason Win Probability Added (WPA) (Career)
Rank. Player
1. David Ortiz 3.2 369 PA
2. Albert Pujols 2.9 334 PA
3. Justin Turner 2.7 314 PA
4. Lance Berkman 2.7 224 PA
5. Pete Rose 2.6 301 PA



Mariano Rivera 4.27 200 BF - Awesome !!
Sandy Koufax 1.51 213 BF
Clayton Kershaw 0.77 759 BF - I guess the doubters have a case
Dave Price -0.05 414 BF
   413. kwarren Posted: January 07, 2021 at 11:35 PM (#5998176)
But what it can’t support is this:
Steroids make you much better, players who get caught will stop using, and their performance suffers after returning from suspension.
Ryan Braun & Melky Cabrera say hello. Their post suspension record was markedly worse, and I'm sure that there were a lot others.
   414. Rally Posted: January 08, 2021 at 07:45 AM (#5998220)
And Nelson Cruz was better post-suspension. On average, they meet their projections. No difference between them and the players who don't get suspended.
   415. alilisd Posted: January 08, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#5998267)
I meant that it’s not guaranteed that adding velocity would enable him to optimize his command. I don’t think that’s guaranteed.


Oh, no, definitely not. No telling what might happen between those two variables.
   416. Rally Posted: January 08, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#5998291)
Saw in a Fangraphs chat that Dan has more or less the same conclusions as I do when it comes to projections and known steroid use:

"Dan Szymborski: Won’t see this from me as I’ve been unable to find any evidence of unusual projection overachievements for players busted for PEDs as a group, at any point in their careers before or any underprojection afterwards. I’ve been trying to find this for a decade now."
   417. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#5998320)
1. David Ortiz 3.2 369 PA
2. Albert Pujols 2.9 334 PA
3. Justin Turner 2.7 314 PA
4. Lance Berkman 2.7 224 PA


Ortiz versus Berkman is a fair fight. I think I like Berkman better.
   418. The Duke Posted: January 08, 2021 at 07:32 PM (#5998461)
416. All the more reason to keep them out. Cheating to no effect and putting your reputation at risk is stupid

It’s like global warming - no matter what contradictory data you present, I’ll still keep them out

More hurricanes - global warming
Less hurricanes - global warming
Lower tempatures - global warming
Higher temperatures - global warming
Polar bears dying on ice floes - global warming
Polar bears swimming to safety on gLacier - global warming


You just have to be committed to the cause
   419. SoSH U at work Posted: January 11, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#5998989)
Bump, because this should always be in Hot Topics.

Not much change in terms of percentages. It doesn't look like anyone is going to join the holdovers. It's interesting there are only 121 votes in, which is low for this time of year (last year on Jan. 9, there were 138 votes in the tally).
   420. Adam Starblind Posted: January 11, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#5999003)
418. The Duke Posted: January 08, 2021 at 07:32 PM (#5998461)
416. All the more reason to keep them out. Cheating to no effect and putting your reputation at risk is stupid

It’s like global warming - no matter what contradictory data you present, I’ll still keep them out

More hurricanes - global warming
Less hurricanes - global warming
Lower tempatures - global warming
Higher temperatures - global warming
Polar bears dying on ice floes - global warming
Polar bears swimming to safety on gLacier - global warming


You just have to be committed to the cause
419. SoSH U at work Posted: January 11, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#5998989)
Bump, because this should always be in Hot Topics.

Not much change in terms of percentages. It doesn't look like anyone is going to join the holdovers. It's interesting there are only 121 votes in, which is low for this time of year (last year on Jan. 9, there were 138 votes in the tally).


global warming
   421. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 11, 2021 at 02:31 PM (#5999018)
For those voters who are the "No PED" crowd, some empty ballots ahead:

In 2022, the two main new candidates are ARod and David Ortiz. It is also the last year for Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa.
In 2023, Carlos Beltran is the only new candidate with any chance of getting 5%. It's also the last year for Kent.
In 2024, it's Adrian Beltre, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, and maybe David Wright getting 5%. It's also the last year for Sheffield.
In 2025, it's Sabathia and Ichiro. It's also the last year for Wagner (if he is not in before then).

At the moment, it seems like Rolen, Wagner, and Helton are quickly moving up, and may be in before 2025, anyway.

Of those new candidates, I'd guess that:
- Ichiro and Beltre are first-ballot;
- Beltran, Mauer, and Ortiz will get in quickly;
- Utley and Sabathia will both get in via the BBWAA;
- Wright will stay on the ballot for several years in the low double-digits;
- ARod will do better than Manny Ramirez, but not as well as BB/RC, and will go the whole ten years without getting in.

I think it is so weird that the two greatest everyday players of my lifetime - Bonds and ARod - will not be voted into the HOF, and one of the two greatest pitchers of my lifetime (Clemens, Maddux being the other) will also not get voted in by the writers.

It makes me pretty uninterested in visiting the HOF Museum with my kids, because I feel like I've got to spend half the time we are there explaining why Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, and Roger Clemens are not in the HOF while my daughters ask me to reflect on what it was like to watch Harold Baines play.

I'll still go to Cooperstown every few years for the fun of walking around town, looking at memorabilia, and eating some good meals while drinking Ommegang beer,
   422. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 11, 2021 at 03:01 PM (#5999030)
It makes me pretty uninterested in visiting the HOF Museum with my kids, because I feel like I've got to spend half the time we are there explaining why Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, and Roger Clemens are not in the HOF while my daughters ask me to reflect on what it was like to watch Harold Baines play.


"And over here, kids, is Bud Selig, the man who was in charge throughout all I just described about those players. After orchestrating a strike that cancelled a World Series, he then ran the sport and..."

No doubt, if logic or consistency is important, the Hall makes it tough. I suspect that's not the case for most visitors, people who are just fans of the game and/or some specific players.
   423. Howie Menckel Posted: January 11, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#5999034)
per Wright, I have noticed over the years that the public's perception of "writers refuse to vote for the guys they dislike" or "they pad the totals of a guy who is a good quote" to be overrated.

certainly not that it never happens, just not to the perceived degree.

Wright, one of the most media-friendly NY athletes since Mark Messier, might test that theory.

actually, Mattingly in his later years was the go-to guy in the Yankees clubhouse as well. he never got close to election, but I wonder if most of his modest annual vote tallies came from the NYC region.

the sheer volume of NYC media is what sets it apart.

a mid-market team that is mediocre might not have any writers sniffing around the pre-game clubhouse - or just a couple, perhaps. but the competitiveness was such that you'd have more than a dozen writers warily eyeing each other for (literally) hours (a situation blamed on BBTF fave Murray Chass, btw), just to make sure they didn't get scooped.

if someone could "fill the notebooks" quickly - and Joe Torre as Yankees MGR was a raconteur extraordinaire - that only was appreciated, but it made life easier for writers and for the players who didn't want the responsibility.
   424. alilisd Posted: January 11, 2021 at 04:02 PM (#5999050)
Of those new candidates, I'd guess that:
- Ichiro and Beltre are first-ballot;
- Beltran, Mauer, and Ortiz will get in quickly;
- Utley and Sabathia will both get in via the BBWAA;
- Wright will stay on the ballot for several years in the low double-digits;
- ARod will do better than Manny Ramirez, but not as well as BB/RC, and will go the whole ten years without getting in.


This is always a tough call. Historically catchers have struggled to get in, but with an open ballot, and Ivan Rodriguez having gone in 1st ballot, I'm going to go with Mauer as a 1st ballot selection. I'll also say Beltran will have to work his way up given his involvement in the Astros sign stealing scandal, but I think he will go in via the writers. I'd be more inclined to say Sabathia will go in quickly if not first ballot. Utley is such an interesting case for the writers to see how much SABR/WAR influence there is on the electorate. He's an extremely short career for a HOF player at just 7,863 PA's, he wasn't a full time player until age 26, he missed pretty large chunks of 2010-2012 which are typically prime seasons by age for a player, almost no black/gray ink, very little, and no serious, MVP love. Basically his entire case is a 5 year peak and 10 year prime of really exceptional WAR. Will enough writers buy it?

I think it is so weird that the two greatest everyday players of my lifetime - Bonds and ARod - will not be voted into the HOF, and one of the two greatest pitchers of my lifetime (Clemens, Maddux being the other) will also not get voted in by the writers.

It makes me pretty uninterested in visiting the HOF Museum with my kids, because I feel like I've got to spend half the time we are there explaining why Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, and Roger Clemens are not in the HOF while my daughters ask me to reflect on what it was like to watch Harold Baines play.


ARod? I think you misspelled Trout ;-)

Don't skip it because of this! The plaque room is certainly obligatory, but there is an entire museum full of displays and artifacts documenting the history of the game that is so worth seeing, at least IMO.
   425. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 11, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#5999056)
Yes, Trout will likely end up right up there at the top. I started watching baseball in 1981, when I was 7 years old. Among those whose peaks I was able to watch, the most WAR to the present day are:

Bonds
Clemens
ARod
Rickey
Schmidt
Maddux
Randy Johnson
Pujols
Niekro
Ripken
Blyleven
Beltre
Boggs
Carlton
Brett
Chipper Jones
Pedro
Griffey, Jr.
Mussina
Ryan
Glavine
Bagwell
Schilling
Yount
Ozzie
Molitor
Whitaker
Mike Trout is currently 81st all time, with 74.6 WS.

If he gets to 85.4, he passes everybody on that list through Chipper Jones, and into 51st place all-time.

If he gets to 96.5, he passes Yaz into 33rd place all-time.

To pass ARod, and become the second-highest Win Shares of players whose peaks happened during my life, he has to get to 117.6, and pass ARod into 16th place.

To pass Bonds and move into 4th place all-time, he needs to get to 162.9 - another 88.3 Win Shares.

Ruth is first with 182.5.




   426. Srul Itza Posted: January 11, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#5999059)
Unless Saber writers really take over, I think Utley is going to be the next Grich/Whittaker case.
   427. SoSH U at work Posted: January 11, 2021 at 04:43 PM (#5999062)
He may not get in, but I would be stunned if he went one and done. Rolen’s path argues against it.
   428. John DiFool2 Posted: January 11, 2021 at 05:16 PM (#5999075)
- Utley and Sabathia will both get in via the BBWAA


Utley fails the dreaded 2,000 hit test; he may very well be one-and-done with maybe 3%. His teammate Rollins may get more votes.
   429. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 11, 2021 at 05:22 PM (#5999078)
He may not get in, but I would be stunned if he went one and done. Rolen’s path argues against it.

I hope you're right, but at the same time, Utley is not Rolen. Notably, both of their cases rely on them being regarded as standout defenders - but while Rolen won 8 Gold Gloves, Utley won none. Also, for all of Rolen's noted fragility, Utley actually has less playing time, and falls short of a number of moderately significant milestones as a result; Rolen has 2000 hits, 300 homers, 500 doubles, and 1200 runs and RBI, none of which Utley reached. (Utley has his advantages, obviously, but "led the majors three years in a row in HBP" or "went 84/6 SB/CS over a 6-year span" are tougher sells to a BBWAA audience.)
   430. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:04 PM (#5999102)
I think there are enough SABR friendly voters to keep Utley on the ballot but not enough to get him inducted. Plus there are some fans of other teams who don't like Utley at all.
   431. SoSH U at work Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#5999108)
Plus there are some fans of other teams who don't like Utley at all.


I'm no Mets fan, and I thought his slide was complete bullshit and won't care if he never gets Cooperstown's call because of it.

But I still have no doubt he'll live to see a second ballot.
   432. RJ in TO Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:45 PM (#5999112)
Utley is such an interesting case for the writers to see how much SABR/WAR influence there is on the electorate. He's an extremely short career for a HOF player at just 7,863 PA's, he wasn't a full time player until age 26, he missed pretty large chunks of 2010-2012 which are typically prime seasons by age for a player, almost no black/gray ink, very little, and no serious, MVP love. Basically his entire case is a 5 year peak and 10 year prime of really exceptional WAR. Will enough writers buy it?
Utley is basically Joe Gordon (55.7 WAR in 1566 games while missing two prime years to the war), who had to wait only 59 years for his selection. While I think Utley will eventually go in, he's more likely to take a path like Rolen than to be rushed in.
   433. jmurph Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:30 AM (#5999203)
Huh, I feel like I'm usually more in tune with the CW on these things, I thought Utley would get in via the writers.
   434. The Duke Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:15 AM (#5999218)
The Boston globe released their ballots. This comment cracked me up on Vizquel

What many people don’t realize is that he sneaked in 2,877 switch-hitting base hits when they weren’t looking. He also helped his team by leading the league in sacrifice hits four times. He scored 100 runs twice and he had 80 or more runs 10 times. He had almost as many walks (1,028) as strikeouts (1,087).

Leading the league in sacrifices!!! Put him in.
   435. LargeBill Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:23 AM (#5999220)
432. RJ in TO Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:45 PM (#5999112)

Utley is such an interesting case for the writers to see how much SABR/WAR influence there is on the electorate. He's an extremely short career for a HOF player at just 7,863 PA's, he wasn't a full time player until age 26, he missed pretty large chunks of 2010-2012 which are typically prime seasons by age for a player, almost no black/gray ink, very little, and no serious, MVP love. Basically his entire case is a 5 year peak and 10 year prime of really exceptional WAR. Will enough writers buy it?

Utley is basically Joe Gordon (55.7 WAR in 1566 games while missing two prime years to the war), who had to wait only 59 years for his selection. While I think Utley will eventually go in, he's more likely to take a path like Rolen than to be rushed in.


And Gordon had the benefit of staying active in the game as a manager/coach after his playing career. There's no way of telling how much it helps to continue to be involved. Seems the borderline guys who just move on from the game are more easily forgotten
   436. The Duke Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:30 AM (#5999231)
I can’t see Utley getting any meaningful traction. Maybe in the 15-30% range. He’ll have the huge advantage of absolutely no one on the ballot most of his first five years.

There really aren’t many easy to identify hall of famers coming any time soon. Who’s out there that generates enthusiasm verlander, scherzer, Greinke, kershaw, posey, Molina, Pujols, cabrera, Canó (PED), Votto, A simmons,

I’m leaving out guys who have a long runway still.

There are a bunch of guys in the younger group who look like good bets (betts, arenado, acuna, Tatis, machado, trout, Lindor )

Here’s my question. Two middle infielders and no outfielders in the 30+ category . Who am i missing ?
   437. SoSH U at work Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#5999233)
who am i missing ?


Goldschmidt has a chance if his 2020 numbers signify a return to established levels and he keeps it up for a few years.

Stanton would need to stay healthy.

Longoria would need a bounceback of a season or two.

Cutch and Altuve would need serious bouncebacks.

None is on an obvious trajectory, however.





   438. GuyM Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#5999257)
Other possibles: Hamels, Sale, Freeman, deGrom, Rizzo, Strasburg, Rendon.
   439. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 12, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#5999267)
The Globe has dropped its six votes for the HOF. Five of the six are altogether predictable, and the sixth comes from such a silly source that it actually kind of makes sense. Here you go:

Pete Abraham (6): No adds or drops. Bonds, Clemens, Helton, Rolen, Schilling, Wagner. If you believe in a pretty small Hall, rewarding only the best at their positions, then I can totally see how you get to this ballot.

Bob Hohler (3): Bonds, Clemens, Schilling. No adds or drops. Pretty simple - small Hall guy, only selects the best of the best, and these three candidates are (in my opinion) pretty obviously the three most obvious candidates on the ballot, if you just say "screw it" to anything but the numbers.

Bob Ryan (3): Helton, Schilling, Vizquel. No adds or drops.He won't vote for PED candidates. He *will* add candidates in some years after reconsideration, so I would suggest Scott Rolen and Andruw Jones supporters politely lobby Bob Ryan.

Dan Shaughnessy (1): Jeff Kent. Added Kent, dropped nobody. He only voted for Jeter last year. He's an attention-seeking iconoclast, nothing you're going to do about it.

Michael Silverman (5): Bonds, Clemens, Manny Ramirez, Rolen, Schilling. No adds or drops. To me, this ballot is simply a slightly more inclusive version of Hohler's ballot - you could definitely make an argument that these are the five best resumes on the ballot, if the PED stuff doesn't phase you.

Tara Sullivan (5): Bonds, Clemens, Kent, Manny Ramirez, Schilling. No adds or drops. Much like Silverman, it just depends on how you place Kent amongst second basemen historically, and how you do the same with Rolen and third basemen.

There you have it. Out of the six voters:

5 votes - Schilling
4 votes - Bonds, Clemens
3 votes - nobody
2 votes - Kent, Manny Ramirez, Rolen, Helton
1 vote - Wagner, Vizquel

Nobody dropped a past vote, and only one person (Shaughnessy) added one candidate (Kent).

Pretty boring ballot drop, but there it is...
   440. Ron J Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:13 PM (#5999286)
So this leaves us at: (above 5%)


Public Ballots: 129
Anonymous/Unverifiable Ballots: 9
% of Ballots Known: 34.8%
"Last Updated:
1/12/2021 at 06:47 PST"
Curt Schilling 74.6%  (-1)
Barry Bonds 72.5%   (0)
Roger Clemens 71.7%  (-1)
Scott Rolen 67.4% (+20)
Todd Helton 55.1% (+25)
Billy Wagner 50.7% (+18)
Gary Sheffield 48.6% (+14)
Andruw Jones 42.0% (+17)
Omar Vizquel 38.4%  (-2)
Manny Ramirez 34.8%  (+3)
Jeff Kent 27.5%  (+4)
Sammy Sosa 21.7%  (+4)
Andy Pettitte 15.2% (+6)
Bobby Abreu 15.2%  (+8)
Mark Buehrle 9.4%   N/
   441. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:21 PM (#5999289)
436-
Jose Ramirez, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant could be others although the latter's star has fallen off big time. Jon Lester maybe (he's short but at least discussion worthy). Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman are in the young group with the other 20's stars. George Springer and Carlos Correa (if healthy another 20's stars)? Soto goes in the really young guns bin (with Tatis and Acuna). Could Corey Kluber bounce back and up as 3/4 of Scherzer? Can Josh Donaldson stay healthy and productive enough? Garrett Cole and DJ LeMahieu might be in the mix too but would need good production for a few more years.

439-
These would be an interesting 6 ballots to watch to see how they treat Ortiz and A-Rod for many reasons; their relative greatness, the Boston connection, PED speculations (and realizations). A-Rod's certainly qualified but could imagine a case where he only ends up on two of these ballots (Silverman and Sullivan - they have Manny). His greatness should put him on Abraham and Hohler's ballot - but neither has Manny who was pretty great himself. They may have internal qualifiers that stop them from voting for guys with PED suspensions. Ortiz - due to the Boston connections and his alleged PED transgressions are as minor as any player's, could be on 6 (is he a PED candidate even?) or could be on none. If I were to guess, I'd say he ends up on five of the six, but which 5 I couldn't say. I think Sullivan is the only absolute lock to vote for Ortiz. Also find it hard to believe that none voted for Sheffield (and Andruw, but to a lesser extent).

440- And a stab at some final numbers
Schilling -73%
Bonds - 63%
Clemens - 63%
Vizquel - 51%
Rolen - 49%
Helton - 44%
Wagner - 43%
Sheffield - 40%
M . Ramirez - 34%
Kent - 32%
Jones - 27%
Sosa - 16%
Pettitte - 16%
Abreu - 11%
Buehrle - 7%
Hunter - 5%

Missed cut - Hudson 4%
   442. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:30 PM (#5999292)
Yes, Trout will likely end up right up there at the top. I started watching baseball in 1981, when I was 7 years old. Among those whose peaks I was able to watch


Since 1981 there are two players with three 10 WAR seasons: Bonds and Trout. Those with two 10 WAR seasons include Ripken, Clemens, and Big Unit. Through the first 10 seasons of career Trout is dead even in WAR with Bonds, easily ahead of any pitcher, although both he and Bonds are behind Pujols who has over 700 more PA's than either, but no 10 WAR seasons.
   443. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:30 PM (#5999293)
   439. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 12, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#5999267)
The Globe has dropped its six votes for the HOF. Five of the six are altogether predictable, and the sixth comes from such a silly source that it actually kind of makes sense. Here you go:


Great update, thanks!
   444. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:52 PM (#5999299)
Would everybody agree that nobody is getting 75% this year...and that it's actually not looking so good for anybody getting 75% next year, either? (It is ARod and Ortiz, and then probably nobody else getting 5%, among the new candidates). I mean, maybe there's a block of BBWAA voters who are waiting until year 10 to "release" Schilling, Bonds, and/or Clemens from "BBWAA prison", and then they'll all get to 75% in their final year...but I don't think so.

And I don't think any of this year's other candidates will be able to leapfrog all the way to 75% next year, especially with ARod and Ortiz likely both getting a decent chunk of votes.

Then, of course, a ton of votes fall out for 2023 - Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa all hit the 10-year limit after next year's ballot.

After all those years of logjams, how weird would it be if we get two years in a row with no BBWAA selections? The last time it happened was when the BBWAA, who for some time only voted every other year, failed to induct anybody in either 1958 or 1960.
   445. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#5999300)
Goldschmidt has a chance if his 2020 numbers signify a return to established levels and he keeps it up for a few years.

Stanton would need to stay healthy.

Longoria would need a bounceback of a season or two.

Cutch and Altuve would need serious bouncebacks.

None is on an obvious trajectory, however.


Goldschmidt had such a tough slog anyway by not becoming a full time player until he was 24, and while he was a great hitter, he was not overwhelmingly so for a 1B, instead deriving a lot of value from his baserunning and defense. I think he would have to really stay at a high level for more like five to six years. Interesting guy to watch.

Stanton is so sad a case, such extraordinary talent, but so little ability to stay healthy and on the field to express it! I think most people would look at him through age 24 and think he's a lock, but after two lost seasons and two injury shortened seasons in the past six years, he looks really doubtful.

Longoria definitely would need a couple of more good seasons, and a LOT of voters to believe his defense was all that early in his career. McCutchen is toast and has been for a while, unfortunately as I'm a big fan. I guess he could go the Andre Dawson route and stick around forever piling up enough counting stats to persuade the writers to combine that with his superior CF play early, but I doubt it will happen for him. Altuve strikes me as a somewhat different case. He missed a little playing time in 2018-2019, but doesn't seem dramatically down in performance. If he's healthy in 2021, I'd expect him to still be a very good player, and could be a solid candidate with a productive mid 30's career. That's almost always the trick though, to stay healthy and relatively productive into the mid-30's is a must for almost every HOF candidate to achieve.
   446. SoSH U at work Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#5999303)
Would everybody agree that nobody is getting 75% this year...and that it's actually not looking so good for anybody getting 75% next year, either? (It is ARod and Ortiz, and then probably nobody else getting 5%, among the new candidates). I mean, maybe there's a block of BBWAA voters who are waiting until year 10 to "release" Schilling, Bonds, and/or Clemens from "BBWAA prison", and then they'll all get to 75% in their final year...but I don't think so.


It's distinctly possible. I'm curious where Schilling ends up when the private ballots are released. And if he moderates his remarks over the next 12 months, maybe he gets in.

I think Bonds and Clemens have topped out.

I like Rolen in 2023, but suspect he'll have too far to climb to make it in 2022.

I don't really have a strong sense about Ortiz.
   447. Howie Menckel Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:05 PM (#5999304)
Ortiz - due to the Boston connections and his alleged PED transgressions are as minor as any player's, could be on 6 (is he a PED candidate even?) or could be on none. If I were to guess, I'd say he ends up on five of the six, but which 5 I couldn't say.

spoiler alert: the Boston Globe ain't posting a ballot without Ortiz on it unless it's Shaughnessy. picking A-Rod but not Ortiz would generate a lot of angry clicks - even though it's exactly what the HOM might do next year.
   448. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#5999305)
Dan Shaughnessy (1): Jeff Kent.


This is pathetic. I disagree with all of those other ballots, but at least there's some logic to them.

As to speculation about the future - with the rarest of (Troutian) exceptions, it's probably unwise to speculate about anybody who isn't past 30 yet. Soto obviously has HOF talent, but then so did Jose Fernandez. (And lots of other guys whose careers petered out rather than ended suddenly.) They've got to have the better part of their case in the books before it makes sense to speculate.
   449. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#5999308)
  438. GuyM Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#5999257)
Other possibles: Hamels, Sale, Freeman, deGrom, Rizzo, Strasburg, Rendon.


Hamels is interesting to me in light of the discussions on pitcher standards. Buehrle and Hudson have not done well this year. Hamels averaged 200 IP across his first 11 seasons, so by today's pitchers that's pretty heavy use and he stayed healthy, but he also averaged just 12-9 W-L with a high of only 17. Six of those seasons totaled together would leave him with a .500 record, so he was only a "winner" in fewer than half of those. Looking at JAWS he's indistinguishable from either Buehrle or Hudson. Will he play any more to add to his case? Sale certainly has a great peak, but not much career, and deGrom will only make it to 10 seasons by age 35, his last under contract (although there's a team option for his age 36 season). Tough for them to put together enough quantity, but they certainly have quality. Strasburg couldn't stay healthy in his youth, it would be extraordinary if he did so in his 30's to the extent necessary for a HOF career. Man, I love Rendon, but he's going into his 30's with really low playing time/counting stats. Rizzo and Freeman, both good glove, low power (for a 1B) guys who also seem to be really good guys and team leaders. 2020 could be the difference maker for them, Rizzo had a down year, Freeman won an MVP. Going forward Freeman could be at the center of a contending Braves team, while Rizzo is part of a rebuild in Chicago, or moves on in 2022. I think they're both possibilities, as you said, but I'd choose Freeman if I had to pick one to bet on.
   450. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:21 PM (#5999310)
After all those years of logjams, how weird would it be if we get two years in a row with no BBWAA selections? The last time it happened was when the BBWAA, who for some time only voted every other year, failed to induct anybody in either 1958 or 1960.


Man, that would be crazy! But I totally follow your logic, and it seems entirely possible, even reasonable, that it could happen that way. As you said, it would be really hard for Rolen to make the jump in 2022 with both A-Rod and Ortiz coming on, and the big three still taking up so many ballots.
   451. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#5999313)
Late starts are going to sink a bunch of guys. Kluber, deGrom, Votto, Utley, and Donaldson all have this problem to varying degrees. Of those five I think that Votto is the only one with a realistic shot through the writers, and even that's really dicey.
   452. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#5999323)
Votto's in - but maybe not first ballot. Utley will be Rolen 2.0 with a little less fanfare, but coming on to a much less crowded ballot. Kluber looks toast, but had the peak. DeGrom does have a very late start, but has the peak already, just needs some higher quality volume now. He could pull a Scherzer and remain highly effective through his mid-30's which I'm sure not many people saw coming for Scherzer through say 2013 or 2014. Donaldson has enough peak and prime, but the late start does hurt him. If he could string together another mostly healthy 4 years at 3-4WAR he'd be pretty close. Given his current age, that is of course unlikely.

On a side note - part of it depends on how you grade his defense, but by all accounts it's outstanding. Mookie Betts merely needs a graceful decline at this point and he's in. One of very few in recent memory that essentially had a case wrapped up by 30 (Trout, Kershaw, Pujols and A-Rod being the others). Everyone else needed years in their 30's to flesh out their case.
   453. LargeBill Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:57 PM (#5999328)
452. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#5999323)
Votto's in - but maybe not first ballot. Utley will be Rolen 2.0 with a little less fanfare, but coming on to a much less crowded ballot. Kluber looks toast, but had the peak. DeGrom does have a very late start, but has the peak already, just needs some higher quality volume now. He could pull a Scherzer and remain highly effective through his mid-30's which I'm sure not many people saw coming for Scherzer through say 2013 or 2014. Donaldson has enough peak and prime, but the late start does hurt him. If he could string together another mostly healthy 4 years at 3-4WAR he'd be pretty close. Given his current age, that is of course unlikely.


Votto isn't quite a sure thing. Counting numbers won't get close to the milestones that used to be a ticket to Cooperstown and a couple more seasons like last year and his rate stats will stop being the calling card they were a few years ago.
   454. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:25 PM (#5999349)
Late starts are going to sink a bunch of guys. Kluber, deGrom, Votto, Utley, and Donaldson all have this problem to varying degrees.


Yes, this is the historical bias towards long career and high counting stats at play, IMO. If you look back at writer selections, it's rare to find players who didn't start playing regularly at 21, or 22. Even if they weren't great at those ages, the extra 1,000 to 1,200 or so PA's goes towards the career count. It's really going to crush modern pitchers though as they're already struggling to get those counting stats with full careers like Buehrle and Hudson had, both are over 3,000 IP, but below 225 W's. Kluber and deGrom both have great peaks, but they're missing 5 years at the start of their careers which they'll never be able to make up.
   455. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:38 PM (#5999354)
Votto isn't quite a sure thing. Counting numbers won't get close to the milestones that used to be a ticket to Cooperstown and a couple more seasons like last year and his rate stats will stop being the calling card they were a few years ago.


Yeah, he's another interesting case for whether the electorate has become more WAR oriented. If he plays out the string over the next three seasons he's under contract for (his age 37-39 seasons), he'll be just over 1,200 runs, 2,200 hits, not even 350 HR and probably not 1,200 RBI, and he'll lose the career .300 BA. But he'll be a guy who led the league in OBP 7 times, and had a 9 year span with an OPS+ of 162, which sells him short as it doesn't properly weight OBP! By WAR he has two, or three MVP type seasons and seven or so HOF/AS type seasons. With three relatively healthy year his career WAR will move into the top 100, and he will probably inch past McCovery and Palmeiro on JAWS for 1B, but he's already in solid HOF territory there with his excellent WAR7 score. Definitely a non-traditional HOF 1B selection though!
   456. alilisd Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#5999355)
Jose Ramirez, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant could be others


I really like Ramirez, will be fun to watch him! Bryant I am so saddened by, I think the HBP he took really has thrown him off at the plate. I hope he can bounce back! Harper seems like a guy who will never live up to his hype, but that hype was so high he'll still end up a HOF. He may very well be over 300 HR before his age 30 season. He'll likely have a ton of counting stats all across the board as he was playing regularly at age 19. He may never put up any big seasons like 2015 again, but he's signed for 11 more years so just the sheer bulk of his career could carry him in
   457. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 12, 2021 at 07:16 PM (#5999364)
Hamels is interesting to me in light of the discussions on pitcher standards. Buehrle and Hudson have not done well this year. Hamels averaged 200 IP across his first 11 seasons, so by today's pitchers that's pretty heavy use and he stayed healthy, but he also averaged just 12-9 W-L with a high of only 17. Six of those seasons totaled together would leave him with a .500 record, so he was only a "winner" in fewer than half of those.

It's interesting he doesn't have more wins given the teams he pitched for. The Phillies won their division every year between 2007-2011, when Hamels was averaging 31 starts but going only 13-9. He then won 17 when the Phillies were .500 in 2012 but was under 10 the next two years when the team was bad.

Hamels is likely not quite enough peak, not quite enough career (assuming he's essentially done). His best CYA finish is 5th and he has no meaningful black ink. Only four seasons with 5+ WAR and two with 6+. He does have a WS MVP, which distinguishes him from Hudson and Buehrle, but it was not a particularly memorable MVP like Bumgarner or Josh Beckett.
   458. Booey Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#5999403)
Votto isn't quite a sure thing. Counting numbers won't get close to the milestones that used to be a ticket to Cooperstown and a couple more seasons like last year and his rate stats will stop being the calling card they were a few years ago.


It's not just Votto. Obviously we don't know how every active player is going to age, but it's looking like most major milestones (except 3000 k's) are going to start becoming rare. 300 wins could very well be a thing of the past, and 250 and even 200 will start becoming scarce. And with batting averages plummeting, 3000 hits and career .300 hitters will dwindle, as will big career RBI totals, since no one puts the ball in play anymore and 30 homer seasons only lead to 75 rbi, and even 40 homer seasons finish with less than 100. Hell, I don't even see a lot of guys that look likely to top 500 HR despite overall homers being at an all time high; they're high because every rando hits 20-30, not because the top guys are putting up any more than usual.

Other than Cabrera and Trout, who looks better than 50/50 to crack 500? A healthy Stanton could do it, but a "healthy Stanton" is most likely a mythical creature. Harper has a shot, I guess. Can Nelson Cruz continue defying his age? The shortened COVID season really hurt his chances.
   459. Rally Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#5999405)
The league strikeout rate in 2020 came very close to the lifetime rate of Dave Kingman. That is disturbing.
   460. EddieA Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:59 PM (#5999408)
Duplicate
   461. EddieA Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:02 PM (#5999409)
The recentness of the seasons on this leader board, that doesn't include relievers has very much affected my interest in watching baseball strikeouts per nine innings
   462. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 13, 2021 at 06:20 AM (#5999427)
I'm astonished to see so many people who think Utley's going in. I'd rate him at close to a 0% chance of making it via the writers' ballot. He's a borderline case with no hardware, several years of stinking at the end of his career, and a bad personal rep to boot. He's far more likely to fall off the ballot than ever hit 75%.
   463. Adam Starblind Posted: January 13, 2021 at 07:29 AM (#5999429)
I'm astonished to see so many people who think Utley's going in. I'd rate him at close to a 0% chance of making it via the writers' ballot. He's a borderline case with no hardware, several years of stinking at the end of his career, and a bad personal rep to boot. He's far more likely to fall off the ballot than ever hit 75%.


You've gotta buy that he was Joe Morgan for 5 years, and a lot of that is another case of "if you believe the sky high defensive numbers."
   464. Rally Posted: January 13, 2021 at 08:52 AM (#5999434)
The recentness of the seasons on this leader board, that doesn't include relievers has very much affected my interest in watching baseball strikeouts per nine innings


Nolan Ryan would still be in the top 5 of that list if he was pitching today, and facing a full lineup of people who whiff like Dave Kingman instead of (maybe) one Kong and a bunch of guys like Tim Foli and Larry Bowa who just try to put the ball in play.

That is, if we could bring back Ryan in his prime, which stretched from ages 25 to 44. Bring him back today at 73 and he's just another guy who strikes out a batter per inning. I imagine his stamina is not what it was, he's been through heart surgery, so he'd probably tire after only 150 pitches.

I'm writing an article on this which I'll share when ready.
   465. Dolf Lucky Posted: January 13, 2021 at 09:37 AM (#5999448)
I was born in 1976 and have baseball memories stretching back at least to 1981. So I'll use that as a cut-off point. Thinking about players for whom a majority of their career was in my sentient lifetime, what is the best lineup I can make consisting of players in the Hall vs. not?

In the Hall:

C - Carter or Pudge
1B - Bagwell
2B - Sandberg
3B - Boggs
SS - Ripken
LF - Rickey
CF - Junior
RF - Walker or Gwynn

SP1 - Maddux
SP2 - Randy
SP3 - Pedro

RP - Mariano

Not in the Hall:

C - Posada
1B - Palmeiro/Helton/McGwire
2B - Whitaker
3B - Rolen
SS- ARod
LF - Bonds
CF - Lofton/Jones
RF - Sosa or Dewey

SP1 - Clemens
SP2 - Schilling
SP3 - Brown

RP - Wagner or Quis

Which team are you taking?

If I add up career WAR for team 1 (using the first player listed if I threw out multiple names), I get 1,021. For team 2, 981.
   466. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 10:38 AM (#5999457)
So, we could be looking at several years of no elections. No one this year. a-rod and Ortiz start strong but will have PED issues - no way they go in on bonds/Clemens last ballot. Then you have Beltran who was never a lock and now has the cheating issue. So is Beltre the next guy in ?

Hopefully the vets committees will ramp it up an ensure an election every year.
   467. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 11:18 AM (#5999464)
It's interesting he doesn't have more wins given the teams he pitched for. The Phillies won their division every year between 2007-2011, when Hamels was averaging 31 starts but going only 13-9. He then won 17 when the Phillies were .500 in 2012 but was under 10 the next two years when the team was bad.


Yes, I was shocked at his W-L record, not that that is how I'd judge him as a pitcher, but really surprised he wasn't better at least on a Pct. basis
   468. Rally Posted: January 13, 2021 at 11:40 AM (#5999470)
I'm surprised to see Hamels at 58 WAR. My instinct is that while he has been a fine pitcher, not great enough or hasn't pitched long enough to rank that high.

But it seems reasonable, he's got the same WAR as Bret Saberhagen.

Pitcher W-L.....IP..ERA+.WAR
BSaber 167-117 2562 126 58.9
Hamels 163-122 2698 123 58.4

Saberhagen was one and done. The big difference between them is that Hamels was good to great most of his career, never really had a bad year. He had a bad year in 2020, but it was only 3 innings so doesn't hurt his rates much. Saberhagen with his 2 Cy Young awards was better at his best but not as consistent.
   469. SoSH U at work Posted: January 13, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#5999471)
So is Beltre the next guy in ?


Rolen will go in before him.

   470. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#5999473)
Hamels hit Harper on purpose - that should be worth some brownie points
   471. Booey Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:11 PM (#5999476)
#465 - I assume you're not including players who have never appeared on a ballot yet (but then why ARod)? Otherwise I'd personally make the following changes to your "not in the HOF team"...

C - Mauer over Posada (if you consider Mauer a catcher)
1B - Pujols by a mile over Palmeiro/Helton/McGwire
2B - Probably Cano over Whittaker
3B - Beltre over Rolen
CF - Trout WAY over Lofton/Jones. Or Beltran if you're not counting active players.
SP3 - Kershaw or Verlander over Brown (I'd also put Scherzer and Greinke ahead of Brown, but below the others)
   472. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#5999481)
458. Booey Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#5999403)

Other than Cabrera and Trout, who looks better than 50/50 to crack 500? A healthy Stanton could do it, but a "healthy Stanton" is most likely a mythical creature. Harper has a shot, I guess. Can Nelson Cruz continue defying his age? The shortened COVID season really hurt his chances.


Shortened season was devastating to so many players. An older guy like Cruz is hurt, but so are young guys who lose a peak season, or a prime season which could cut them short down the road. Cruz and Encarnacion, who has a better though still slim chance, are both fascinating. It's extraordinary to look at Cruz from 2017-2019 and age 36-38 he hit 117 and averaged 39! Then last year 16 in just 53 games. But if you look at 2017-2019, you'll also see declining playing time and PA's in every season. He really needed a full 162 last year and the chance to hit 30 more. I can't imagine how he hits another 83 now after turning 40, but it's going to be fun to watch him try! Now Encarnacion hasn't been on quite the same tear, but he did hit 104 with an average of 35 from 2017-2019, plus 10 last year in just 44 games. He is in front of Cruz with 424 total, and he's two years younger. Would be amazing for him to get there, but he'll have to sign a cheap contract for 2021 and reestablish himself to have a chance to play long enough to do it.

With the usual caveat of staying healthy, Harper is a mortal lock, strange as it is to say that of someone who isn't quite half way there yet. But as I noted up thread he's likely to be at 300 before he even turns 30, and then he's under contract for 9 more years from 30-38. Arenado is a possibility, especially if he stays in Colorado. He averaged 40 from 2015-2019, and he has 6 more potential seasons in Coors Field. Machado is another possibility, I'd say. He's averaged 35 from 2015-2019, and had a huge HR year last year given the shortened season. He's also only going to be 28 next year, and is signed long term like Harper. Unlike Arenado his home park works against him, but Petco is not nearly as HR unfriendly as it was 5-10 years ago. For example, the three year moving average for HR in Petco starting with 2011-2013 has increased from 111 to 170. The fewest HR hit was in 2014 with just 96, with 73 hit in 2020 in less than half a season! The high was 193 hit in 2019, the highest amount by far, but even from 2014-2016 and 2015-2018 the three year moving average was 159 and 158 respectively.
   473. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:30 PM (#5999482)
459. Rally Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#5999405)
The league strikeout rate in 2020 came very close to the lifetime rate of Dave Kingman. That is disturbing.


Ugh, very disturbing!
   474. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:32 PM (#5999483)
Nolan Ryan would still be in the top 5 of that list if he was pitching today, and facing a full lineup of people who whiff like Dave Kingman instead of (maybe) one Kong and a bunch of guys like Tim Foli and Larry Bowa who just try to put the ball in play.

That is, if we could bring back Ryan in his prime, which stretched from ages 25 to 44. Bring him back today at 73 and he's just another guy who strikes out a batter per inning. I imagine his stamina is not what it was, he's been through heart surgery, so he'd probably tire after only 150 pitches.


I bet if Nolan were to suit up today, he'd pop a few "Advil" and his stamina would be just fine ;-)
   475. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:35 PM (#5999484)
466. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 10:38 AM (#5999457)

Hopefully the vets committees will ramp it up an ensure an election every year.


That is a terrible thing to hope for! The last thing we need are more guys like Lee Smith, Jack Morris, and Harold Baines in the Hall!
   476. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#5999485)
470. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#5999473)
Hamels hit Harper on purpose - that should be worth some brownie points


Nice!
   477. Dolf Lucky Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:50 PM (#5999488)
#465 - I assume you're not including players who have never appeared on a ballot yet (but then why ARod)? Otherwise I'd personally make the following changes to your "not in the HOF team"...


Yes, the comparison I was trying to make was included in the Hall vs. excluded from the Hall. I should have made that more clear. I included ARod because I'm presuming it's a given that he'll face the same vote ceiling that Clemens and Bonds have.
   478. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:53 PM (#5999490)
More on Cruz. I started thinking about how high his HR count was at his advanced age, so ran Stathead for age 36-39 most HR. He comes in 5th on the list with 133. Ruth, Palmeiro, and Aaron are 4th, 3rd, and 2nd from 143, 151, to 159. That means with a full season last year it's possible Cruz would have been 2nd on the list, almost certainly no lower than 3rd. No chance of catching Bonds at 209, but still really impressive.
   479. reech Posted: January 13, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#5999491)
Given that Cruz has already been busted once for cheating, perhaps his "advanced age" success can also be attributed to PEDS (and being ahead of the testing).
   480. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:08 PM (#5999493)
2,877 switch-hitting base hits


Apparently switch base hits are better than regular ol' base hits, because style points.
   481. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#5999498)
People make up things about vizquel to argue his case. If you liked him, the argument is simple: 11 gold gloves and 2877 hits. I’m not saying those are the right criteria but it’s Vizquels calling card and people should stop looking for other justifications. They all sound hollow and contrived.

People have been getting into the Hall for years with stats lien Vizquel. Making things up doesn’t help.

If you tell most people a player had 2877 hits and 11 gold gloves they’d assume he’s a hall of famer. The moment you scratch the surface of this argument you find cheap construction.
   482. DanG Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#5999503)
Looking at the pillars supporting the HOF case of Omar Vizquel:

1. 2877 Hits! That’s well above the Damon/Pinson/Oliver line, less than a season’s worth from 3000 hits. Everyone above that line is in the HOF. And hey, we’re comparing a shortstop to a bunch of outfielders.
2. 11 Gold Gloves! As a shortstop! Ridiculous! One of the all-time marks, obviously a transcendent fielder.
3. The highest Fielding Average for a shortstop in the game’s history! Who does that? Hall-of-fa-mer, clap, clap, clap-clap-clap!
4. Crazy longevity! Most games at SS in history; #12 in Games played; 24 seasons; 12000 PA.
5. He just looked like a great fielder. Dig those soft hands! And those bare-handed grabs!

Go back forty years. The items above are about all you had to go on. Under those circumstances, most of us would support Omar for the Hall. I would've. Not now.
   483. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#5999511)
[482] Without looking too much into the stats, the quickest HoF question is "was this player ever considered among the elite players in the game?" And the answer to that for Vizquel is an overwhelming "no."
   484. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2021 at 02:32 PM (#5999512)
Hopefully the vets committees will ramp it up an ensure an election every year.


No. The Vets Committee already has laughably low standards (Baines, Smith, Morris) and should not be encouraged to be even more generous.
   485. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#5999525)
Well if I can get dick Allen, Dwight evans, Ted Simmons, trammel and maybe Lofton, Minoso, Whitaker and Hernandez I’ll take a Garvey and Morris and Baines. That’s not a bad trade for me
   486. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#5999526)
Well if you are using “did he feel like a hall of famer in his time”, you’ll immediately exclude all the people who are high OBP players. Players who walk a lot don’t feel like hall of famers. Frankly, did they feel like they were a hall of famer in their time is how everyone was selected before sabr. It’s the eye test. It’s not a bad way to do it but will have blind spots.
   487. bachslunch Posted: January 13, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#5999529)
"The Vets Committee already has laughably low standards (Baines, Smith, Morris)"

Yet not so laughably low that guys like Dahlen, Minoso, Allen, Grich, Whitaker, Dw. Evans, or Hernandez, can get a sniff, sorry to say.
   488. bachslunch Posted: January 13, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#5999531)
@485: Yup -- that's the cost of doing business. If they got in all of Dahlen, Minoso, Allen, Grich, Whitaker, Dw. Evans, and Hernandez, I could hold my nose and accept guys like Garvey and Oliva as part of the deal.
   489. Moeball Posted: January 13, 2021 at 04:28 PM (#5999542)
#421:

For those voters who are the "No PED" crowd, some empty ballots ahead:

In 2022, the two main new candidates are ARod and David Ortiz.


This will test my theory that people's true attitudes about steroids are about 20% concern about steroids and 80% "Do I like this player or not?"

My guess is that even the hardcore "NO PEDS NO WAY NO HOW NOT EVEN BACNE" members of the BBWAA will happily vote for Ortiz. Because massive hypocrisy in the BBWAA is a way of life.
   490. Moeball Posted: January 13, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#5999543)
How did Utley never win a Gold Glove?

My guess is he's one and done and will have to wait for the Veteran's Committee to have any chance. But there are other second basemen ahead of him that need to go in first (Whitaker, Grich off the top of my head, maybe Willie Randolph too).
   491. John DiFool2 Posted: January 13, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#5999553)
Shortened season was devastating to so many players.


It's devastating ONLY IF the voters fail to take shortened seasons into account. But it's obvious that they don't, with Crime Dog being perhaps the biggest victim. [Open to other better {worse} examples note]
   492. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#5999566)
No. The Vets Committee already has laughably low standards (Baines, Smith, Morris) and should not be encouraged to be even more generous.


Ahem, given post 475 I'd appreciate a nice Rye, but will settle for a coke, if I must. :-)
   493. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#5999575)
483. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#5999511)
[482] Without looking too much into the stats, the quickest HoF question is "was this player ever considered among the elite players in the game?" And the answer to that for Vizquel is an overwhelming "no."


But given DanG's point about what was available many years ago, could a shortstop who won 9 straight gold gloves really NOT be considered elite? I guess so, given he only made two AS teams and received essentially no MVP support, still it seems odd.
   494. alilisd Posted: January 13, 2021 at 05:21 PM (#5999583)
It's devastating ONLY IF the voters fail to take shortened seasons into account. But it's obvious that they don't, with Crime Dog being perhaps the biggest victim. [Open to other better {worse} examples note]


It doesn't seem as if many voters do. McGriff probably is the best example given he would have been over 500 HR and would likely have squeezed in somehow with that milestone on his resume. Raines was the best example I am aware of given he also lost out on 1981, which was a huge season for him, but enough writers realized his qualifications just in time to get him in.
   495. flournoy Posted: January 13, 2021 at 05:24 PM (#5999584)
could a shortstop who won 9 straight gold gloves really NOT be considered elite?


He was considered elite defensively, but never elite overall. He was always thought of as at least a tier below the other AL shortstops of the time (Ripken, Yount, and Trammell half a generation older, Rodriguez, Jeter, and Garciaparra half a generation younger).
   496. Booey Posted: January 13, 2021 at 05:57 PM (#5999592)
Vizquel also played in the era where managers couldn't be bothered to do even a shred of research before voting on the Gold Gloves, so more often than not they just lazily awarded it to whoever won the year before, or whoever had a good reputation (hence Jeter winning 5 times and Palmeiro winning as a DH). All Gold Glove totals from this era should be taken with a grain of salt.

(That's not to say we shouldn't weigh defensive contributions from players of this era; we just shouldn't use Gold Glove awards as our measuring stick)
   497. Rally Posted: January 13, 2021 at 06:41 PM (#5999605)
#495,

There was no overlap between Yount and Vizquel, at least as SS. Yount moved to outfield 5 years before Omar came up.
   498. flournoy Posted: January 13, 2021 at 07:55 PM (#5999623)
That's right. I initially didn't have Yount in there, but then edited the post to include him since I looked at it and thought, "Oh wow, I forgot about Yount." Should have gone with my first instinct.
   499. DanG Posted: January 13, 2021 at 11:58 PM (#5999653)
Top defensive shortstops 1990-2004 (minimum 900 G at SS):

Player        Rfield dWAR   PA From   To   Age
Rey Sanchez    145.0 21.1 5198 1991 2004 23
-36 A-
Cal Ripken Jr109.4 19.3 7203 1990 2001 29-40 B+
Omar Vizquel    85.3 20.8 8466 1990 2004 23-37 B-
Mike Bordick    68.2 16.6 6484 1990 2003 24-37 B-
Greg Gagne      65.1 12.9 3855 1990 1997 28-35 A
Gary Disarcina  63.2 12.8 4032 1990 2000 22
-32 C+
Royce Clayton   60.3 15.9 6873 1991 2004 21-34 B
Rey Ordonez     54.5 10.1 3407 1996 2004 25
-33 A

For a second opinion I added their Win Shares grade.
   500. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 14, 2021 at 06:23 AM (#5999664)
Vizquel wasn't ever near the best player on his own teams, let alone baseball. Noting the WAR is not the end-all/be-all, on the 1995-1999 Indians he was only top 5 on their seasonal WAR list once. In 1995 he was not even in their top 12.
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