Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

2021 BBHOF Tracker Summary and Leaderboard – Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker

Tracking the tracker.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 23, 2020 at 07:14 AM | 524 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 6 of 6 pages ‹ First  < 4 5 6
   501. Rally Posted: January 14, 2021 at 07:31 AM (#5999666)
Flip
   502. Howie Menckel Posted: January 14, 2021 at 09:55 AM (#5999691)
Does the tracker really not list the deadline for ballot submissions and the date of the announcement of votes?

I'd much rather believe it is right there in front of me, and somehow I am missing it.
   503. Rally Posted: January 14, 2021 at 10:13 AM (#5999697)
With 143 ballots, Schilling at 74.8%, which means 1 vote away from being above the line. Probably won’t do so well on private ballots, but you never know.
   504. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 14, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#5999706)
With 143 ballots, Schilling at 74.8%, which means 1 vote away from being above the line. Probably won’t do so well on private ballots, but you never know.


He is -1 on the public vote from last year. He is only 50% from 1st time voters (Bonds is at 83%). His private votes were 22.9% less than his public votes in 2020. No way he is going to get elected this year.
   505. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 14, 2021 at 02:03 PM (#5999755)
Nobody is getting in this year...today,I saw one of the analysts who takes the Tracker's data and updates the percentage chance of getting at least 5%, and getting to 75%. This is about as boring a year as I can remember for the HOF, in terms of suspense:

Schilling was the only candidate with a non-zero chance of getting to 75% this year...and it was less than a 1-in-200 chance;

Buerhle was the only new candidate with a better than 50% chance of surviving the first ballot.

Hunter was the only other new candidate that had even a 20% chance of surviving the first ballot.

No candidates on the ballot are falling off in 2021 because of the 10-year rule.

None of the returning candidates appear to be in jeopardy of failing to get 5%, so they won't fall of via that route, either.

In other words, the only three things about the 2021 ballot process that are worth five seconds of time are:

1) Several candidates will make a lot of progress towards 75% (Rolen, Helton, and Wagner), so that's something;
2) Mark Buerhle will probably join the other returning candidates in 2022, though he will likely stay at the bottom of the ballot in future years;
3) Clemens, Bonds, Schilling and Sosa are all one year closer to falling off the ballot.

There you go. Next year's drama? Will Ortiz be treated as a slam-dunk folk hero candidate, or as an impressive candidate with some PED and DH baggage? Are there very many voters who simply wanted to penalize Clemens and Bonds by waiting until their final year to vote for them (I don't think there is muh of that at all, actually)? Can Curt Schilling shut his mouth for a year, and maybe some voters will hold their nose and vote for him in his 10th and final year? Will Rolen go up enough this year where he could plausibly get over the finish line next year? And I'm kind of curious how well ARod does with the voters. I'm thinking, better than Manny Ramirez has done, but not as well as Bonds and Clemens have done.
   506. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2021 at 02:11 PM (#5999757)
I'm thinking, better than Manny Ramirez has done, but not as well as Bonds and Clemens have done.


That's where he should be. There are probably voters who will vote for guys whose steroid use dates to the pre-testing era but won't do it for guys who were suspended.

1) Several candidates will make a lot of progress towards 75% (Rolen, Helton, and Wagner), so that's something;


I'd say Rolen, Helton and, possibly, Jones. I don't think Wagner has enough time left, particularly with none of the guys in front of him going in this year.
   507. The Duke Posted: January 14, 2021 at 02:42 PM (#5999759)
I think the chances for schilling are bigger than the math. I think the private guys are composed of some guys who believe in voting someone in once they get to a certain level. That is, the 70% threshold may have prompted a handful of them to push him in. At any rate, I don’t think he’ll go in and I think it’s just as likely he gets less as opposed to more. Having said that, I think the chances he gets more are higher than most think.

If you don’t like schilling and don’t want to give him a platform, I’d put him in this year because at least there are a few others that will go in with him (Jeter, Simmons, Miller). Wait a year and he might be alone. Then the today’s game committee votes in 22 and he will surely go in that year and therefore might be alone.
   508. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 14, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#5999778)
For the curious (if there are any): the Japanese hall of fame did not elect any players this year. The guy who managed the 1996 Olympic team, and an author who writes about baseball got elected.
   509. alilisd Posted: January 14, 2021 at 06:23 PM (#5999809)
1) Several candidates will make a lot of progress towards 75% (Rolen, Helton, and Wagner), so that's something;


Andruw Jones actually did very well this year in terms of making progress, he picked up 19 new votes and is at 83% with new voters. With six more chances he's looking pretty good.
   510. alilisd Posted: January 14, 2021 at 06:31 PM (#5999814)
I think the chances for schilling are bigger than the math. I think the private guys are composed of some guys who believe in voting someone in once they get to a certain level.


Well the math says he's only received 50% of the 6 new voters on the tracker, so that doesn't improve his percentage. He's picked up 2 new voters but lost 4, so that doesn't improve his percentage. The last time his private votes were not at least 20% worse than his public votes was 2016, so that doesn't indicate any private voters are more likely to vote for him. I think that math is pretty solid
   511. The Duke Posted: January 15, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#5999962)
Apparently Jim Caple has gone from not voting for Helton/Rolen to voting for Helton/Rolen to not voting for them again and it isn’t the 10 person limitation

How does that happen ?
   512. Ron J Posted: January 15, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#5999976)
#511 Well neither played very well last year.
   513. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 15, 2021 at 05:50 PM (#6000000)
Apparently Jim Caple has gone from not voting for Helton/Rolen to voting for Helton/Rolen to not voting for them again and it isn’t the 10 person limitation

How does that happen ?


I mean, you wouldn't want to dilute a ballot that includes Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Vizquel and Hunter.
   514. The Duke Posted: January 17, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6000172)
Nick canepa on his blank ballot

“I’ve made it clear I’m never voting for juicers — perceived or proven. There’s a chance someone will get the 75 percent of the vote required for entry, maybe not.

I’m a hard ass regarding baseball’s hall. If I don’t vote for a player the first time he’s eligible, I don’t vote for him ever. I see no one in my legitimacy range as ballot-worthy.

I’m not going for anyone I think doesn’t belong just to vote for somebody.”

This is an extreme position but I like it for its clarity. I’ve always struggled with how people all of a sudden decide someone is hall-worthy. I can see running across an argument once in a blue moon that changes your mind but it shouldn’t happen much. The ten player limit is legit but if you are a small hall guy you’d never have 10. And his PED position is more sane than others - Ortiz will be an example of that hypocrisy.

Having said that, if you are using that criteria only, I think you’d have to vote for schilling. How is he not a small hall vote if you are ignoring the social media stuff.

   515. Rally Posted: January 17, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6000179)
Schilling didn’t have 300 wins, or even 250, so maybe he’s not good enough for a small hall voter.
   516. Ron J Posted: January 17, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6000189)
#515 Much to my surprise, Schilling does extremely well on the HOF monitor. Meaning he hit some key milestones and has what you might call a standard narrative hook.

He does however do less well on the HOF standards.

Overall he ranks 38 in Black Ink, 37 in Grey Ink, 34 in Monitor, 52 in Standards, 28 in Jaws.

And his list of similar pitchers is not overwhelming (though deceptive -- Schilling played through sillyball. Milt Pappas and Bob Welch didn't so they're pretty obviously not as good).

All in all comfortably but not overwhelmingly qualified no matter how you look at it. And does best if you focus on the extended prime -- where he fits comfortably in the second tier.
   517. Cleveland TBD fan Posted: January 17, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6000193)
I’ve made it clear I’m never voting for juicers — perceived or proven. There’s a chance someone will get the 75 percent of the vote required for entry, maybe not.

I’m a hard ass regarding baseball’s hall. If I don’t vote for a player the first time he’s eligible, I don’t vote for him ever. I see no one in my legitimacy range as ballot-worthy.

I’m not going for anyone I think doesn’t belong just to vote for somebody.”


This sounds like a very lazy and arrogant person. He is always right the first time and can't be bothered to think about other people's arguments. Whether I agree or disagree with his specific votes, the sooner people like him lose their votes the better.
   518. cookiedabookie Posted: January 17, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6000207)
I'm sorry, but blank ballots should not be counted. There hasn't been a single writers ballot that didn't have multiple eventual HoFers on it. Because of that, I personally think in years when no one gets 75%, the top vote getter should be inducted so that there's at least one inductee. Because those players get inducted eventually anyway.
   519. alilisd Posted: January 17, 2021 at 07:19 PM (#6000218)
This is an extreme position but I like it for its clarity.


To me it's not clarity, it's simply further example of how Canepa is, and has been for decades, nothing but a horse's ass who wants to be the center of attention. He's a terrible "writer" and, according to my in-laws, a domestic abuser. Gigantic P.O.S. who cannot be purged from the voting rolls soon enough, IMO.
   520. alilisd Posted: January 17, 2021 at 07:22 PM (#6000219)
This sounds like a very lazy and arrogant person. He is always right the first time and can't be bothered to think about other people's arguments. Whether I agree or disagree with his specific votes, the sooner people like him lose their votes the better.


You are correct! Lazy and arrogant suit him to a T! And I already seconded your idea about him losing his vote, the sooner the better, without even having read your post.
   521. alilisd Posted: January 17, 2021 at 07:25 PM (#6000221)
  518. cookiedabookie Posted: I'm sorry, but blank ballots should not be counted.


I like this idea. Submitting a blank ballot is a petty, vindictive, "look at me" act which should not be tolerated by the HOF or by the BBWAA. If you don't think anyone is qualified, fine, but you don't get to up the denominator for election purposes.
   522. Booey Posted: January 17, 2021 at 09:03 PM (#6000228)
#518 - I've always thought they should have a 2 player minimum with their elections. Top 2 vote getters, plus anoyone else over 75%. It guarantees that they won't have a sparse (or non existant) induction ceremony, and it speeds up the process without inducting anyone who wasn't going to get in eventually anyway.

Has anyone currently outside the HOF ever finished in the top 2 on a ballot?
   523. RJ in TO Posted: January 17, 2021 at 09:49 PM (#6000230)
The best finish I can find for a non-Hall of Famer is Tony Oliva's 3rd place finish in 1988, with 47.3% of the vote. That he finished third with that low a percentage is more of an oddity of the balloting that year than anything else, as usually there's a half-dozen guys or more who do better than that in the voting each year. Gil Hodges also finished 3rd on the ballot, in 1981 with 60.1%, and in 1977 with 58.5%, and 1976 with 60.1%.

It's quite amazing how stable Hodges' results were in the voting.
   524. DanG Posted: January 17, 2021 at 09:54 PM (#6000231)
Has anyone currently outside the HOF ever finished in the top 2 on a ballot?
No. There have been a few who finished #3:

2020 Schilling 70.0%
1988 Oliva 47.3%
1981 Hodges 60.1%
1977 Hodges 58.5%
1976 Hodges 60.1%
1970 Hodges 48.3%

The most recent #4 finishers outside the HOF:

2020 Clemens 61.0%
1996 Garvey 37.2 %
1980 Hodges 59.7%
Page 6 of 6 pages ‹ First  < 4 5 6

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Harveys Wallbangers
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(11791 - 10:51am, Jan 18)
Last: ramifications of an exciting 57i66135

NewsblogFormer Oakland Athletics pitcher Dave Stewart bids $115 million on share of Oakland Coliseum
(4 - 10:38am, Jan 18)
Last: Jay Seaver

Hall of MeritDavid Ortiz
(36 - 9:34am, Jan 18)
Last: jacksone (AKA It's OK...)

NewsblogRays plan to open season with fans at Tropicana Field
(25 - 8:20am, Jan 18)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogNBA 2020 Season kick-off thread
(816 - 7:39am, Jan 18)
Last: NJ in NJ

NewsblogMLB rule changes: League still discussing universal DH and expanded playoffs for 2021 season
(12 - 6:40am, Jan 18)
Last: manchestermets

Hall of MeritAndy Pettitte
(58 - 12:14am, Jan 18)
Last: Chris Cobb

Hall of Merit2022 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(82 - 10:58pm, Jan 17)
Last: Dr. Chaleeko

Hall of MeritMark Teixeira, Justin Morneau and Prince Fielder
(5 - 9:57pm, Jan 17)
Last: Dr. Chaleeko

Newsblog2021 BBHOF Tracker Summary and Leaderboard – Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker
(524 - 9:54pm, Jan 17)
Last: DanG

NewsblogNew York Yankees, DJ LeMahieu finalizing six-year, $90M contract, sources say
(25 - 8:30pm, Jan 17)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogMLB suspends political donations after DC riot
(135 - 8:28pm, Jan 17)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogLHP Martin Perez returns to Boston Red Sox on one-year deal, source says
(2 - 5:56pm, Jan 17)
Last: villageidiom

Sox TherapyBenny's Gonna Jet?
(15 - 4:48pm, Jan 17)
Last: Darren

NewsblogYankees sign pitcher Corey Kluber, two-time Cy Young Award winner
(22 - 4:26pm, Jan 17)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.3370 seconds
48 querie(s) executed