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Wednesday, December 23, 2020

2021 BBHOF Tracker Summary and Leaderboard – Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker

Tracking the tracker.

Jim Furtado Posted: December 23, 2020 at 07:14 AM | 641 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   601. villageidiom Posted: January 26, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6001863)
Flip
   602. Ron J Posted: January 26, 2021 at 03:21 PM (#6001869)
Well the obvious thing to do is a non-controversial induction.

So Pete Rose
   603. reech Posted: January 26, 2021 at 03:47 PM (#6001877)
Do you think more writers that lean politically conservative vote for Clemens/Bonds more than liberals do?
Thinking how conservatives forgave Tr#mp for his various moral transgressions over the years but might draw a hard line against suspected 'roiders.
   604. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 26, 2021 at 04:19 PM (#6001885)
When do you think Clemens and Bonds stopped making sure they were "available for the big phone call" on HOF announcement day?

And I wonder if, like, Torii Hunter and Mark Buerhle are hanging on the big call...of whether or not they hit 5% or not.

I mean, last year, it was not at all clear that Bobby Abreu would make the 5% cut-off, and now he appears to comfortably be above it. In fact, he'll probably be on the ballot for the full ten years, at this point. So that's cool for him.

But today kind of sucks. For many years, today would be one of the most fun sports moments of the entire baseball off-season. It is one of the few days between late October and late March that baseball can grab the sports news lede away from football, the NBA, NCAA basketball, etc. Today, the headline will be that MLB cannot get out of its own way as it relates to the legacy of PEDs, or the off-the-field behavior of retired players like Schilling and Vizquel.
   605. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6001890)
I think schilling should lobby the Hall to take his name off the ballot next year. Going from 70 to 50 is not going to help him with the Vets.
   606. cookiedabookie Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:03 PM (#6001900)
Man I feel really bad for Tim Hudson. Dude should be above 5%. I have him in my top 200 all time, bunched up with Don Drysdale, Wes Ferrell, Bret Saberhagen, and Urban Shocker
   607. cookiedabookie Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:22 PM (#6001904)
And Hudson squeaks by with 5.2%!
   608. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:27 PM (#6001905)
Fourteen blank ballots this year. Fourteen. This is a disgrace.

If I ran the HoF, anybody who submitted a blank ballot would have their vote permanently revoked. (And their @$s kicked, as well.)
   609. cookiedabookie Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:28 PM (#6001906)
Fourteen blank ballots this year. Fourteen. This is a disgrace.

If I ran the HoF, anybody who submitted a blank ballot would have their vote permanently revoked.

Absolutely agree. It's not a serious vote, when there's never been a HoF ballot without multiple future HoFers on it.
   610. Howie Menckel Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6001907)
It makes no sense to have a big special today on MLB if no one got enough votes.

today's #freezingcoldtake !

meanwhile, even pay-per-view boxing producers were watching this farce and saying, "Geesh, is this thing EVER going to start?"

even in tantric-sex mode, Sting was smoking a cigarette halfway though the presentation.

Heinz ketchup bottles all over flipped the show off, deciding this was more Anticipation than they could stand.

even the two guys who were Waiting for Godot for so long, decided they couldn't wait.
   611. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6001910)
14 blank ballots! That 3.5%. That’s a lot to overcome.
   612. Howie Menckel Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6001911)
MLB Network points out that the BBWAA electing 22 players in the previous 7 years is a record for them, fwiw.
   613. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:42 PM (#6001914)
Well now they will have two years in a row with no electees. I wouldn’t be surprised if no one gets in until Beltran and I’m not even sure he’s a first ballot election. Beltran will have the Astros thing. A-rod PEDs. Ortiz will have the DH and PED rumors. I’m just not sure Rolen has legs. Maybe Helton does. If I had to bet on anyone it would be Helton. Hopefully the vets will put some good guys in
   614. yest Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:44 PM (#6001915)
Do you think more writers that lean politically conservative vote for Clemens/Bonds more than liberals do?

In general in the early days I saw liberal voters likely to use legal standards of beyond a reasonable doubt.

But the electorate got much more left wing when the immorally purged older voters to help elect the first clear cut steroid user mike piazza
   615. yest Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6001916)
Absolutely agree. It's not a serious vote, when there's never been a HoF ballot without multiple future HoFers on it

You mean hofers like harold baines.

Just using the writers as true hall of Famers in 88 no hall of Famer was elected besides stargell.
   616. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:50 PM (#6001918)
I think schilling should lobby the Hall to take his name off the ballot next year. Going from 70 to 50 is not going to help him with the Vets.

.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).
   617. SoSH U at work Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:53 PM (#6001921)
I’m just not sure Rolen has legs. Maybe Helton does.


How do you figure? In 2019, Rolen received two more votes than Helton. Last year, Rolen pushed the margin between them to 24 votes. This year, it's 32. I don't what you're seeing that would suggest Helton has the legs that Rolen is missing.

After the 2013 shutout, the writers seemed as if they took their responsibility to elect people to the Hall to heart, and responded by stretching their ballots to the limit like never before. Since the 2020 ceremony was postponed, this year isn't going to hurt the Hall the way the previous blanking did, but it will be interesting to see how the writers respond next year. If they still reject Schilling because of his odiousness, and Clemens, Bonds and Ortiz because of PEDS, will they rally around the next guy on at the top of the backlog, or are we looking at an empty podium in 2022 (other than maybe a posthumous election of Dick Allen)?
   618. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:00 PM (#6001925)
I think schilling should lobby the Hall to take his name off the ballot next year. Going from 70 to 50 is not going to help him with the Vets.

He just did.


So...if he gets 75% next year, will he not show up? (Can you refuse a HoF induction...?)
   619. kwarren Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:08 PM (#6001930)
Fourteen blank ballots this year. Fourteen. This is a disgrace.

If I ran the HoF, anybody who submitted a blank ballot would have their vote permanently revoked. (And their @$s kicked, as well.)
What is one supposed to do when when there are no deserving candidates on the ballot. Vote for a non qualified candidate just to retain your vote ? I imagine some would love to vote for Kershaw & Trout but they aren't there yet.
   620. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:12 PM (#6001933)
I don’t see what’s surprising or unreasonable about a blank ballot this year. If you’re against the steroid guys, then there’s no clear Hall of Famers on the ballot.
   621. kwarren Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:14 PM (#6001934)
MLB Network points out that the BBWAA electing 22 players in the previous 7 years is a record for them, fwiw.
Well three of them were Lee Smith, Trever Hoffman, & Jack Morris...so maybe a few more blank ballots would have been helpful

I don’t see what’s surprising or unreasonable about a blank ballot this year. If you’re against the steroid guys, then there’s no clear Hall of Famers on the ballot.


For sure !!

   622. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:14 PM (#6001935)
What is one supposed to do when when there are no deserving candidates on the ballot(?)


There has never been a HoF ballot without deserving candidates on it. Ever. These idiots turn in blank ballots to prove how high-minded and "above the fray" they all are. Fine, pal, you can stomp your little foot elsewhere. Adults are talking.
   623. SoSH U at work Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:21 PM (#6001937)
The BBWAA didn’t elect Morris or Smith.
   624. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:33 PM (#6001948)
So...if he gets 75% next year, will he not show up? (Can you refuse a HoF induction...?)

I know he doesn't have the power to take his name off the ballot, but just maybe the HOF will honor that request? They could do it to remove some of the unpleasantness from the HOF voting dialogue.

If he stays on the ballot, I can't see him getting to 75%. He went up just one point this year and that was after a few writers wanted to retract their vote for him.
   625. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:41 PM (#6001953)
I wouldn’t be surprised if no one gets in until Beltran and I’m not even sure he’s a first ballot election.

Even before the sign stealing, Beltran was the type of candidate who usually needs a few years to get in (much like Raines, Walker, or currently Rolen and Helton). With the Astros thing, I would be surprised if the writers put him in at all, and utterly shocked if he goes in first ballot.

The last time the BBWAA threw back-to-back shutouts appears to have been 1958-60 (when the elections were every other year). After that, they added runoff voting if nobody got in. It wouldn't shock me to see some kind of change if nobody gets in again next year. (It also wouldn't shock me to see Ortiz go in first ballot - Ivan Rodriguez did, and I feel like the level of steroid rumbling around those two guys is pretty similar.)

Change in voting procedures or no, I think Rolen goes in within two years. If nothing else, the purge of the remaining 2013 candidates after next year will help; I believe I counted 5 people in the tracker who voted for 10 candidates but didn't include Rolen, and all of them had Bonds/Clemens/Schilling on their ballots.
   626. reech Posted: January 26, 2021 at 07:56 PM (#6001957)
So...if he gets 75% next year, will he not show up? (Can you refuse a HoF induction...?)


Marvin Miller said he didn't want to be elected if had died already.
Vet committee voted him in anyway.
   627. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 08:02 PM (#6001961)
If you were blocked on Helton/rolen up until this year, this was the year to add them. That boat has sailed. Now a bunch of people simply need to change their minds. One of the problems with disclosing your ballots is the difficultly in all of a sudden deciding someone is a hall of famer after five years of articles explaining why you didn’t think they were
   628. TJ Posted: January 26, 2021 at 08:04 PM (#6001963)
What is one supposed to do when when there are no deserving candidates on the ballot. Vote for a non qualified candidate just to retain your vote ?


The BBWAA could just tell it’s members, “Look, if you truly believe that there is no one on the ballot Hall worthy, don’t submit your ballot. Just write a piece explaining that you don’t see any candidate as deserving and why.”
   629. SoSH U at work Posted: January 26, 2021 at 08:08 PM (#6001967)
I know he doesn't have the power to take his name off the ballot, but just maybe the HOF will honor that request? They could do it to remove some of the unpleasantness from the HOF voting dialogue.


The Hall submits the ballot to the writers. They could take him off. It will be interesting to see if they do (they obviously didn't do the same with Miller, though the two situations weren't completely analogous.

If you were blocked on Helton/rolen up until this year, this was the year to add them. That boat has sailed. Now a bunch of people simply need to change their minds.


Which happens with every slow-building candidacy. There's nothing about Rolen or Helton that is any different than what we saw with Edgar or Raines (except they're proceeding faster). And once players get above 50 percent, as Rolen is now, the lazier among the electorate tend to hop on board.

Rolen will be in no later than 2023. Helton is probably looking at 2024.
   630. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 26, 2021 at 08:16 PM (#6001969)
So cancel certain no votes but not others? Not an idea I can get behind.
   631. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 26, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6001985)
If you were blocked on Helton/rolen up until this year, this was the year to add them. That boat has sailed. Now a bunch of people simply need to change their minds.

As SoSH mentioned, this happens all the time in Hall of Fame voting. In particular, Phil Niekro was on the ballot in '96 when nobody was elected; Niekro was elected the next year. Yogi Berra was on the ballot in '71 when nobody was elected; Berra was elected the next year (along with Sandy Koufax).

Writers change their minds about Hall candidates regularly; that's how Bert Blyleven went from getting fewer votes than Jim Kaat and Tommy John to getting elected.
   632. yest Posted: January 26, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6002001)
What is one supposed to do when when there are no deserving candidates on the ballot. Vote for a non qualified candidate just to retain your vote ? I imagine some would love to vote for Kershaw & Trout but they aren't there yet.


If I was a voter and would loose my ballot if I didn't vote for anyone I would have picked either dan haren, or Michael curryer this year, as the person least likely to get a vote, and vote for them to not mess up the process (only people I'm sure would never come close to the 5%
   633. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:02 PM (#6002005)
Even if you can’t get behind one of the top candidates, you could help keep guys like Buerhle and Abreu in the mix. There’s always people at the bottom who should get more than one year. Like Jim Edmonds.
   634. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:26 PM (#6002021)
Does anyone else see the irony that RMc is coming out as pro-cancel culture here, in this case canceling the voting rights of people who simply express an opinion that he disagrees with (that nobody on the current ballot is Hall of Fame worthy)?
   635. alilisd Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:25 AM (#6002128)
today's #freezingcoldtake !

meanwhile, even pay-per-view boxing producers were watching this farce and saying, "Geesh, is this thing EVER going to start?"

even in tantric-sex mode, Sting was smoking a cigarette halfway though the presentation.

Heinz ketchup bottles all over flipped the show off, deciding this was more Anticipation than they could stand.

even the two guys who were Waiting for Godot for so long, decided they couldn't wait.


Long, very long, and slow clapping
   636. alilisd Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:26 AM (#6002130)
 613. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:42 PM (#6001914)
Well now they will have two years in a row with no electees. I wouldn’t be surprised if no one gets in until Beltran and I’m not even sure he’s a first ballot election.


Beltran is nothing like a first ballot selection, even before he was implicated in the Astros sign stealing scandal.
   637. alilisd Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:33 AM (#6002131)
If you’re against the steroid guys, then there’s no clear Hall of Famers on the ballot.


Only in that the HOF is a self-defining institution, which means the voters get to define it for themselves. If one looks at the actual make up of the HOF, there are clear HOF's in Rolen and Helton, and Jones as well unless one has some overwhelming evidence his defense is vastly overrated. The only way to say there are no clear HOF's on the ballot is to say it's a Willie Mays HOF, but it is not and never has been.
   638. reech Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6002132)

Does anyone else see the irony that RMc is coming out as pro-cancel culture here, in this case canceling the voting rights of people who simply express an opinion that he disagrees with (that nobody on the current ballot is Hall of Fame worthy)?


Well, trolls gotta troll.
   639. . Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:48 AM (#6002137)
Outside the game, Schilling's track record is decidedly mixed. He's become an awful troll in recent years, but he did great work on ALS, his 38 blog was a good read and he would occasionally contribute something thoughtful. But even then, he was still widely disliked inside the game (Ed Wade's horse's ass comment and the rest of the Phils' feelings toward him, David Wells describing him as the least likable player, etc.). He could have just as much difficulty with the Vets committee, even if for somewhat different reasons.


Schilling is almost a sublimely perfect example of what I've been sketching out as Twitter and social media have morphed into pure cesspool -- a guy whose internet persona only grew into a persona because of the internet. The existence of the internet literally changed the man's personality and literally caused him to have thoughts he would not have otherwise had. No one will ever convince me the pre-Twitter, social media time when Curt Schilling was winning community service and citizenship awards wasn't a far better time. If you want to blame Schilling for having an inherent dark side that the internet brought out, fine -- but the whole idea of culture and society and community is that we put up guardrails and help each other so our dark sides stay buried and our better angels emerge.

Curt Schilling is a failure of policy and culture and community.
   640. Howie Menckel Posted: January 27, 2021 at 12:19 PM (#6002166)
BBWAA Secretary Jack O'Connell has rejected Schilling's bid to be taken off the ballot, and urges the Hall to defer to the organization as it has since 1936.

worth noting - and only partly because it's a pathway for me to mention that Jack finished third in our inaugural (and still operating) Rotisserie League season that this then-youngster here won in 1984.

:)
   641. SoSH U at work Posted: January 27, 2021 at 12:35 PM (#6002174)
The Hall's screening committee does prepare the ballot for the BBWAA. Now, it's only supposed to screen the first-time entrants, while the eligibles who received 5 percent in the last election are simply on it. But it seems like it would be their call whether they opted to include Schilling.

And I'm not surprised by O'Connell's letter. That's kind of consistent with how he's viewed BBWAA elections.
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