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Thursday, October 07, 2021
2021 LDS OMNICHATTER!
White Sox vs. Astros
Red Sox vs. Rays
Braves vs. Brewers
Dodgers vs. Giants
It’s on.
Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).
Hombre Brotani
Posted: October 07, 2021 at 12:35 AM | 882 comment(s)
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Starting pitchers: 17 IP, 6 ER (no outing longer than 5 1/3 innings)
Relief pitchers: 17.2 IP, 6 ER
So relievers were a bit better than starters despite four premier starters on one side and guys like T.J. McFarland and Hansel Robles on the other.
I'm a Tigers fan, and I approved this message.
Best teams to play off in the postseason, by the WPCT of the lesser team
year team1 . team2 series . wpct wpct . WINS
2021 Dodgers -Giants NLDS .654 .660 106-107
1942 Cardinals-Yankees WS .688 .669 106-103
1912 Red Sox . - Giants WS .691 .682 105-103
By this, 1912 is the best. By simple Win totals, this year's match-up is unsurpassed.
To wit, the A's played and won 6 straight playoff series. AND THEY WERE OUTSCORED ALL THREE YEARS.
Still like them better than the Dodgers. The playoff teams are a pretty unlikable crew this year. Milwaukee and SFG the only teams I don't have some dislike for.
1951? Is that not considered post season because it was a regular season playoff?
It's not totally semantics. The Yankees and Red Sox have managed to meet 4 times (before this year) despite the same division set up. Heck, they even played the O's twice.
I literally said "in the last 10 years or so." It should be obvious what it means -- despite never having been more than just a good team, they won three titles through the vagaries of the wildcard and the postseason.
I still don't understand what you mean by "good fortune" in the context of 2010-14, though. The Giants did actually win those games.
And in the seasons that bookended their WS run, they actually had *better* regular-season records -- 101 wins in 1971 and 98 in 1975. And they got swept in the LCS both times.
The more you bloat the playoffs in baseball, the most long-haul of sports, the more random the champions are.
Its not obvious. You could have been talking about a blown call, or an injury situation, or something to do with team revenue or anything. There was no way I would have remembered their w/l records which is an incredibly silly thing to get hung up for various reasons including: this is the way season works.
*****
Looks like Cowboy Joe had an excellent game last night only missing 4 ball/strike calls and they were all quite close.
Still ends up with a 0.3 run edge to the Dodgers which goes back to the argument about how much of an advantage a blown call is. something like .08 runs
It's a perfectly good reason, and it's my reason.
Oh, whatever to all that. I remember it perfectly well, and it was discussed around here relentlessly. It's not really that difficult or complicated to have a sense of stuff like this, and it's to be expected in a community of cranky baseball obsessives. "A blown call, an injury situation," etc, would be in a single game, not over the course of a decade.
Anyway, this is a dumb semantic argument. #### the Giants, I hope they get swept, that's where I'm coming from and I don't think anybody gets to tell me why or why not I get to feel that way.
You know what else is obvious?
That a regular season w/l record has merely tangential relevance to the actual strength of a team measured by WAR or some other means.
That teams change over the course of a season so who's good in July might not be in Sept/Oct.
... if you don't count the playoffs in 1951 and 1962 (which were technically part of the regular season).
With more playoff rounds, all champs are luckier than in yesteryear.
not the LAD, is STL?
I didnt say anything like that. I just said certain observations are obvious, more obvious than what Voxter was referring to as "luck" which wasnt defined and has various issues with that concept.
Have no idea how you drew the conclusion you did
[x ] DP situation or runner/3b less than 2 outs. GB goes through (error or hit)
He also left off Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon.
the nominal DH Mercedes
He was sent to AAA in June and never came back up.
Mercedes hasn't played a game for the Sox since June.
How does that tell you how strong they were entering the playoffs? What would be a useful number of data pts? 50 games?
Everytime this argument comes up its premised on the silly notion that w/l record = How good or how talented that team is.
Right? YOu subscribe to that notion. Correct Bunyon?
Thanks TN, havent watched regular season so I have to catch up.
Astros seem to be the perfect team to hit against Lynn - lots of contact and don't strike out much, with Lynn overly reliant on a fastball and lots of Ks - or so today would make you think.
The bottom third of the sox lineup is pretty meh at best.
Kind of depends on the level of the competition. The 2004 Red Sox finished 3 GB the Yankees,** but their Pythag record was 7 games better, and their Pythag was also 5 games better than their DS rival Angels, and only 2 games worse than the Cardinals. I don't think they were lucky at all.
** I realize your cutoff number was 6 games, and in most cases you'd be right, but the point about the competition remains.
Lynn's career ERA in the Field Formerly Known as Enron is 4.92 in 9 starts, and in his only start there in 2021 he gave up 8 hits and 6 ER in 4 innings.
Do I think 162 w/l is a perfect measure of strength? No. But it’s better than who gets hot over 19 games at the end.
The 2004 Red Sox were lucky. They lost their division. For over 100 years, they wouldn’t have had a chance to what they did. Just as, this year, if we let third place teams in the playoffs, the Jays might well win it all.
I mean, I get it. You guys disavow luck. The winner is necessarily deserving. It’s a comforting feeling. And they are, inarguably, the winner. But, if you don’t think 162 games is enough to settle it, 19 or 20 certainly isn’t and what you’re really saying is we can’t know who is the best.
But I do love Jolly citing pythagoras.
Cause I think Undeserving is the word you are looking for. But you can explain it to us and then we can dissect that position.
I dont think anyone's said anything like that. No one has said that luck doesnt factor into it.
And I havent taken a position one way or the other on which team is more deserving or if SFG were undeserving, or how to structure a tournament to make the winner "deserving" or how we define deserving.
And what about before the WC? to me the 68 Tigers were incredibly lucky to have won the WS.
And Ive been re watching the 69 series and while its very interesting and exciting the Mets got the benefit of just about every controversial ruling in that. It would have been a better series almost certainly w/o the non call on the runner's interference and the shoe polish thing. So they really benefitted.
How do you come out on all that stuff? Did no one get lucky before the WC?
And do you have a plan to make baseball more fair?
So why dont you engage us with something to debate rather than being a prick and putting words in people's mouths.?
The winner is never undeserving by definition. The rules are clear and known. Best Pythagorean, most WAR, etc aren’t what determines the winner.
But being a deserving champion doesn’t equate to being yhe better team or not getting lucky. Some teams - notably the 2014 giants - are luckier than others.
The 21 Dodgers were better than the 21 Cardinals. We didn’t learn that last night but over the season. Last night was, more or less, a random result. Fun as hell but random.
I bet thinking that about the people who disagree with you is a comforting feeling.
This discussion started with someone judging someone else’s reason for rooting against a team. Yes, obviously, thinking other people are wrong is comforting.
WHy is "better"? Whats your def'n of better? Until you have one, these examples are ambiguous. Neither of them is definitive of anything until you ask a question: do we want a six month test or a recent test?
I mean you put out statements like this that don't have answers and then you throw out some cliche and its hard to understand what you're position is.
LIke this one. Some of us are saying that indeed you cant really know (and in that case, how do you want to conclude a season?) BUt what are YOU Saying? Dont you agree that We Can't Know? or do you think we can?
So, anyway, go #### yourself.
There, now I’m a prick. With better things to do.
That's not how it started for me. I was responding to Voxter's impression that it was "obvious" SFG were lucky when some of us had no idea what he was speaking of.
you said:
I never said. WHat is your problem?
what is "inherently lucky" ? What does that even mean?
Yeah I laughed. I had to look that up, I am just getting up to speed on all these teams.
Yeah I was thinking of this as we're talking and as you start to dissect these seasons into games and then into AB and such you end up with more questions than you started with.
I think there's any number of factors that could be at play. There could be a good decision on the part of a manager, there could be some specific match up that perhaps can't be quantified in regular season play but that came into play in a specific player vs player match up or team speed vs a catcher or something.
but as you slice it up into atoms and you come down to individual AB, then you might find like just someone out performing what the expectation is. Like AL Weiss hitting a HR. Its not impossible but it's not likely either. So what is it exactly? Is that luck? But you cant expect him to make an out every single AB right? He has to get a hit sometimes...
THe 69 series just seems ridiculous that definitely felt like it should have had more games, the Mets kept geting every break.
But forget that stuff and look at the close series and those just come down to one play. Like the 1962 series. Or it comes down to one play several times! Like the 1960 Yanks could have lost in the top of the ninth if Mantle doesn't get back. Or the PIT could have lost it before that if Kubek catches the ball. Or they lose if Hal Smith doesnt hit a HR.
Its crazy.
If we were in the same room, I would have responded to your response with a roll of the eyes, as that's about what it's worth.
The Astros have never gotten over blowing that 5-2 lead in the eighth in Game 5 against Philly in 1980.
(Well, I haven't. Grumble, grumble.)
Player fWAR bWARMax Muncy 4.9 4.9
Will Smith 4.6 3.5
Justin Turner 4.0 3.7
Mookie Betts 3.9 4.2
Corey Seager 3.7 3.7
Chris Taylor 3.1 2.7
AJ Pollock 3.0 3.1
Trea Turner 6.9 6.5
Walker Buehler 5.5 6.7
Julio Urias 5.0 4.7
Calyton Kershaw 3.4 2.4
Max Scherzer 5.4 6.0
So 12 3+ WAR players by fWAR and 10 by bWAR or 10 and 9 if you want to exclude Muncy and Kershaw since they are not on the roster.
And thanks as always to BBREF helping me learn about Mike Scott
That's just sad. It's not like they are playing a team that doesn't draw well either, I would imagine there are several thousand Sox fans at the game.
That club definitely deserves better support, all they do is win games year after year.
Yes, when someone offers a reason the rest of us can judge the quality of that reason. That's what it means to "reason". There didn't have to be a reason given, of course; we can hate another team without giving a reason. But if you're going to give a reason, there's nothing wrong with trying to understand what it means.
Trea Turner only has 2.5 WAR with the LAD. Scherzer has 2.4 w/ LAD
Literally never used that word.
Oh, for Christ's sake. Grow up.
Should he be running with two strikes here?
Agree. Another run and he's done. Besides I hate watching him "work", the pace is glacial
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