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Tuesday, October 26, 2021

2021 World Series OMNICHATTER!

Houston vs. Atlanta

Well, I hope you’re happy.

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Hombre Brotani Posted: October 26, 2021 at 05:21 AM | 456 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter, world series

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   301. cardsfanboy Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:03 AM (#6050293)
Have you ever played baseball yourself, cardsy ?


just to tenth grade, dropped out of school at that point in time, wasn't allowed to play.
   302. cardsfanboy Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:04 AM (#6050294)
has an MLB game ever been played in NOV?


Yes, that is why Jeter is called Mr November. (Mind you this was in 2001 and the schedule was pushed back a bit)
   303. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:11 AM (#6050295)
I like WPA but more as a curiosity than any sort of meaningful aspect. I find it interesting how situations grade out. I can’t imagine any scenario where I’d use it for anything serious though.
   304. Voodoo Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:12 AM (#6050296)
if you want to know the odds of the average team winning against the average team in that situation, it’s fine.


Who uses it for any other purpose?

there was a small segment of the stat community that fell in love with it immediately, and started to use it for everything.


There was? What was the everything they used it for?
   305. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:15 AM (#6050297)
I'm sure it's happened, but how many teams lost their best player midway through the season then won the world series?
   306. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:22 AM (#6050299)
Who uses it for any other purpose?

I don't know, someone asked if it was "valid and reliable", I thought they deserved an earnest response.
   307. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 31, 2021 at 12:25 AM (#6050300)
I'm surprised that after Alvarez led off the seventh with a ground out he wasn't substituted on defense up 2-1. Wouldn't have made the same difference after the first HR, but still.
   308. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 31, 2021 at 02:00 AM (#6050309)
I'm sure it's happened, but how many teams lost their best player midway through the season then won the world series?

2005 Chicago White Sox, maybe?

He wasn't their best player that season, but Frank Thomas was easily their "best player" before the injuries.
   309. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 02:36 AM (#6050310)
Who uses it for any other purpose?


what do you mean? that's a ridiculous question.

For instance how do you value SBs? In the old days in Pete Palmer's old book on weighted values. I think he came up with 0.22 runs for a SB. As I was starting to look at this issue, I decided that 0.25 runs would be better because you know gaining a base is 1/4 of the way around the bases.

Then later critics pointed out that Palmer's value was too high. And Im sure it is. If you start to plug in WExp for various base/out states you can see the value of a SB and the negative value of a CS. I think for a normal guy who might steal 5-10 bases a year, in medium or high leverage situations. THe value is only 0.2 runs. Which was shocking to me. If the CS is -.45 runs (which might be a good guess) Then a team needs to steal at a rate of 70% to make it worth while.

That was shocking to me. I thought the break even rate was somewhat less. For most of baseball history players have been stealing at a rate that is less than break even. Definitely in the 60s and 70s. In the AL its only since 2005 that teams have been stealing at a rate that 70%+. Same for NL

That's surprising result isnt it? Theres no way you would know that without looking at WExp.

For basestealers like Brock or WIlls stealing 50 bases a year, the value is even less 0.18 runs/SB is probably a good estimate. Because they are stealing like 3rd base up by 5 runs. That's silly some of those SBs don't even make the WExp needle move at all. Like literally the WExp doesnt change (not enuf to move it 0.1%)

And that in turn effects how we calculate WAR for these players. So you look at Maury Wills and you see he stole 94 bases in 1965 and he gets credit for 6 runs for RBaser. And you think:

"Thats bullshit! He stole 94 bases how can that only be worth 6 runs? Not even one full win. Hell I know he won lots of games that year just by stealing."

But if you do the math 6 runs is generous for him that year (At 0.2 runs/SB he is maybe 28 SB above break even so 5.6 runs. But I am reasonably sure many of those bases are in low leverage situations. if you went SB by SB in the game logs I bet it would be closer to 5 runs. *

But how would you know the value of Wills's RBaser if you don't go through the WExp analysis?

And maybe even more importantly this impacts baseball strategy itself. What is a good decision and what isnt?

Hell isnt that the main reason we come here?

Take a look at this situation.

LAD/STL wild card game 10/6. OK?

Bottom 3rd, LAD down 1. Two on, one out. Bellinger and Betts are on first and second. Two strikes on Sager. You plug that into WExp machine that I linked to earlier and:

If they double steal thats a 16% WExp gain. If one guy gets caught they lose 8%

That's insane! That's free money on the table. They only have to make the double steal work 1/3 of the time to break even! Thats crazy. And Roberts didnt even try it. So you have to question Roberts.

But how would you know that without calculating WExp?


So you're way off in your statement. There's :

1. calculating the value of an event like a SB.
2. There's calculating WAR.
3. THere's evaluating managerial decisions.
There's probably lots of other stuff too

Oh yeah there's

4. The baseball environment itself. Like a league that steals at a less than break even rate. Thats really important to understand (like why do they do that? Are they running to stay out of the DP? are we counting hit/runs? are they counting pickoffs?)

Hell thats pretty much all of baseball. So yeah WExp is a big deal.

*OH yeah that footnote. Walt mentioned this the other day: WIlls holds the record for RBaser in a year with 19 in 1962 on the strength of going 104/13 on sb/cs. Even if we apply a VERY generous standard of 67% for break even and say 0.2 runs/SB that's less than 16 runs.

And I guarantee if you went through the game logs one by one you would find that gain in WExp is less than 0.2 runs per SB. so just wanted to drop that in.

***END MONOTONOUS RANT****
   310. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 02:49 AM (#6050311)

I'm sure it's happened, but how many teams lost their best player midway through the season then won the world series?


The 1973 OAK lost BIlly North (7 WAR) on the eve of the WS. (Jackson was tops at 7.7 WAR).

I know Billy North 7 WAR. Who'd have thunk?

If there is an answer for a guy midway through the season I'd bet its a pitcher.
   311. Jose Has Absurd Goosebump Arms Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:09 AM (#6050327)
The A's lost Reggie himself in the 1972 LCS and won the WS.

But yeah the Braves doing this after losing Acuna mid-season is remarkable. It's one thing to get someone else hot for a week or two but to fill that kind of hole for three months is amazing.
   312. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 03:31 PM (#6050368)
Slight correction to last post.Rbaser also includes advances on hits as well as ''bases taken'' on Fb Gb Wp etc. Wills was very good baserunner so his values there might well be accurate. Doesn't change the overall pt that you use Wexp to find break even pt for stealing etc
   313. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6050369)
Was the Mick injured during one of the yankee world series runs? 1962?
   314. Ron J Posted: October 31, 2021 at 03:51 PM (#6050374)
Mantle was hurt in both 1962 and 1963. But he played (badly) in both WS.
   315. Voodoo Posted: October 31, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6050389)
***END MONOTONOUS RANT****


That was great. No really, it was.

But I think we were talking about the stat WPA specifically and not other win probability metrics, or the general concept of win expectancy.
   316. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 07:42 PM (#6050397)
Braves going back to the "rookie left-hander opener" well one more time, starting Tucker Davidson tonight.
   317. TomH Posted: October 31, 2021 at 07:54 PM (#6050399)
Braves about to pull off a rare feat?
---
The Braves beat the Dodgers, and are in good position to beat the Astros.

If they do, an odd fact would be: in both series, the Braves have lost the "strike zone battle"; the Dodgers hitters' walks minus strikeouts was a better total than of the Braves' hitters. And as of now, the Braves' totals in the WS are less than the Astros (by 9... same # of walks, 9 additional KOs).

Obviously any baseball game is much more than simply BB and KOs, but historically the team with the strike zone advantage wins more often... of the past 14 years of ALCS, NLCS, and WS, 12 of the 41 series have been won by the strike zone "loser". The only other team who pulled off the double-win in this regard was the 2013 Red Sox... and at least they won the home run battle in both of their series.
   318. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:22 PM (#6050401)
That was great. No really, it was.


oh thanks. I was at a truck stop and got really wound up.

But I think we were talking about the stat WPA specifically and not other win probability metrics, or the general concept of win expectancy


yeah I figured I must have missed the boat somewhere down the line.
   319. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:36 PM (#6050402)
Wow. Great start for Atlanta
   320. Tony S Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:36 PM (#6050403)
It's been a long time since I've seen a team completely collapse like the Astros have this series. I wonder how much money Correa has cost himself this October.
   321. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:39 PM (#6050404)
The Astros should try giving up fewer grand slams.
   322. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:39 PM (#6050405)
The Astros should try giving up fewer grand slams.


Shh.
   323. Zach Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:45 PM (#6050406)
"Free falling" is too melodic a song to be a good taunt.
   324. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:01 PM (#6050408)
Very surprised Davidson stayed in to hit
   325. Mike A Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:10 PM (#6050411)
Very surprised Davidson stayed in to hit
So is every Braves fan on this planet.

Ugh, a boot on a routine play. Being an ATL sports fan is quite the ride.
   326. daveywein Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:11 PM (#6050412)
Same here Brett. Would've figured the game plan was Chavez, Martin, + Minter for the 3rd - 6th and Jackson, Matzek, Smith for the 7th - 9th. Smyly for extras.
   327. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6050414)
Keeping him in for a second turn against the Astros probably cost the Braves the game.
   328. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6050415)
Letting Davidson hit was nuts. Fwiw, I thought letter framber hit was wrong, too.
   329. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6050417)
Coo coo cachoo
   330. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6050420)
It wasn't a John Smoltz-approved single, but Freeman's home run does score a run.
   331. sunday silence (again) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6050421)
isnt Barret one of the worst b/k umpires in MLB?
   332. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:53 PM (#6050423)
Don’t like going to Minter this soon
   333. daveywein Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:53 PM (#6050424)
The Greinke as pinch hitter choice is unconventional, but fun. The base hit is better
   334. daveywein Posted: October 31, 2021 at 09:59 PM (#6050426)
I guess Minter bats this inning? Agree it's a strange choice to have brought him in
   335. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:04 PM (#6050428)
That’s at least twice snitker has done that.
   336. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:21 PM (#6050431)
I wonder how much money Correa has cost himself this October.

None. He has cost himself zero dollars.

has an MLB game ever been played in NOV?

Yes, many games. About half of the world series the last 10 years have finished in November.
   337. daveywein Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6050432)
Wouldn't you rather put someone up not named Marwin Gonzalez right now? (Of course, he'll prove me wrong)
   338. daveywein Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:24 PM (#6050433)
Yup.
   339. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:25 PM (#6050434)
I worry that "walking Martin Maldonado" is going to join "giving up a home run to Jim Leyritz" and "giving up a home run to Pat Borders" and "giving up a home run to Juan Uribe" and "Eric Gregg" in the pantheon of tragic Braves postseason moments.
   340. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:25 PM (#6050435)
Maldanado and Marwin. Murderers row.
   341. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:26 PM (#6050436)
339: ha.
   342. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:26 PM (#6050437)
It's high leveraged but it's also the 5th inning. The bench is pretty short. Hard to blow the next PH this early.
   343. The Duke Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:28 PM (#6050438)
The Braves should really try to win this game. The Astros are pretty dominant in the trashcan dome.
   344. Mike A Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:29 PM (#6050439)
Pain. Just pain. I really wanted this one.

But puzzling managing and pitchers that can't throw strikes is not a good combination.
   345. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:30 PM (#6050440)
Chris Martin vs. Jose Altuve is a pretty hilarious height differential.
   346. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6050441)
Mike, it’s only half over.
   347. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6050444)
Like where do the Astros get four more innings from?
   348. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6050445)
Like where do the Astros get four more innings from?
   349. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: October 31, 2021 at 10:43 PM (#6050446)
Braves are hitting, and their starter tonight hadn’t appeared in an MLB game since June.
   350. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:02 PM (#6050447)
Dansby Swanson's Magnificent Hair with a terrible chase on what should have been ball four.
   351. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:13 PM (#6050450)
Smoltz doesn't think Maldonado's bases loaded walk is gonna show up in the box score?
   352. bunyon Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:14 PM (#6050451)
The score box
   353. Tin Angel Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:18 PM (#6050453)
What in the ####?
   354. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:36 PM (#6050454)
New York must be reviewing under an abuse of discretion standard. Extreme deference to the court below.
   355. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:42 PM (#6050456)
One of my issues with the replay system is that it seems like the standard for overturning a call changes from night to night. Sometimes it seems to be "we can only overturn the call if there is literally no disputing that it was wrong and video shows with 100 percent metaphysical certainty that we need to overturn it." And then sometimes it's "yeah, the call was probably wrong."
   356. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 31, 2021 at 11:45 PM (#6050457)
These “moon guy” crypto commercials are just so bizarre and dumb.
   357. Justin Turner Overdrive Posted: November 01, 2021 at 12:16 AM (#6050459)
Future trivia question:
"Who was the last pitcher to bat in the Major Leagues?"

A: Kendall Graveman.
   358. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 01, 2021 at 12:17 AM (#6050460)
There will be baseball on Tuesday. Nice.
   359. vortex of dissipation Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:00 AM (#6050461)
"Who was the last pitcher to bat in the Major Leagues?"


I'm sure that Shohei Ohtani will get some at bats as a pitcher in the future.
   360. The Honorable Ardo Posted: November 01, 2021 at 03:37 AM (#6050464)
The pitching matchup for Game 6 has already been announced as Fried-Garcia. If Houston wins again, Game 7 is *presumably* Anderson-Greinke.
   361. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: November 01, 2021 at 08:15 AM (#6050468)
Last night was anoher 4 hour affair, but at least there was some drama. The first three games featured zero lead changes.
   362. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: November 01, 2021 at 08:26 AM (#6050469)
Snitker managed like they had a game they could afford to lose instead of going for the throat.

Also, brought Minter in a batter too early so that he had to hit. In a bullpen elimination game, there's no reason a pitcher should be hitting, let alone 2 different pitchers hitting.
   363. bunyon Posted: November 01, 2021 at 09:11 AM (#6050470)
362: Maybe. I think he was overly cautious with matchups and, despite needing to use his entire staff for games, he really only trusts two or three guys.

But a hard agree that if you're using the entire bullpen, no pitcher should hit. Both teams let a pitcher hit who clearly wasn't long for the game. It won't matter going forward (like, forever), but once you're down to using everyone, I think having them not hit becomes priority one. You're inevitably going to have matchups you don't like.
   364. Tony S Posted: November 01, 2021 at 12:34 PM (#6050515)

I'm glad the Astros escaped from Atlanta still alive, but I'll miss the organist.
   365. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: November 01, 2021 at 12:46 PM (#6050518)
Good to see a little drama and good to see a Game 6.

The games plod along though. It has to be listenable on the radio, which means something has to happen every once in a while. Also how can you capture the vast majority of your audience, which is folks on the East Coast, when the game doesn't get over until after midnight?

There needs to be an adult in the room who can fix it. Baseball thinks it has time to fix it but it doesn't.
   366. Tony S Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:01 PM (#6050521)
There needs to be an adult in the room who can fix it. Baseball thinks it has time to fix it but it doesn't.


I miss identifiable starting pitchers. This Series -- the whole postseason, really -- has basically been a tale of two piles: a pile of pitchers and a pile of innings, from which managers just more or less randomly pick and match.
   367. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:18 PM (#6050526)
Also how can you capture the vast majority of your audience, which is folks on the East Coast, when the game doesn't get over until after midnight?

This. The usual reply is "Get used to it", or "That's what advertisers demand".

There have now been 21 World Series grand slams. Duvall's last night was only the third one where his team didn't wind up winning the game. Yogi Berra in 1956 hit the first, and Jose Canseco's accounted for the only 4 A's runs in a 1988 game much better known for its final swing of the bat.
   368. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:22 PM (#6050528)
Tony S Posted: October 31, 2021 at 08:36 PM (#6050403)
I wonder how much money Correa has cost himself this October.

None. He has cost himself zero dollars.

How true. And how quickly postseason narratives can change. (See Terry, Ralph, or Bonds, Barry)
   369. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:33 PM (#6050531)
I'd much rather bet on Correa than Seager, Story, or Baez. Seager is debatable, but Correa has a higher ceiling and is a better fielder.
   370. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:40 PM (#6050533)
Some Jayson Stark bits from last night's game:

Greinke was the fifth pitcher to pinch-hit in the last 60 years.

He's the first pitcher to get a hit in that situation since Jack Bentley in 1924, and the first AL pitcher to ever get a pinch-hit.
   371. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 01, 2021 at 01:49 PM (#6050535)
In a situational hitting moment where putting the ball in play would be at a premium, it's interesting to note that Greinke has only 3 postseason strikeouts in 30 PAs, to go along with 4 sac bunts and a .269 BA.
   372. bunyon Posted: November 01, 2021 at 03:55 PM (#6050551)
Can Greinke catch?

I mean, of course I'd say that after Maldanado's excellent game. But I wouldn't count on more of that if I were the Astros.
   373. Doug Jones threw harder than me Posted: November 01, 2021 at 04:42 PM (#6050560)
That's what advertisers demand


Advertisers demand ratings first and foremost. If the ratings decline then the spots are worthless no matter what. I cannot imagine those ratings at midnight Eastern time were very good, and the West Coast wasn't helping this time I think.

But of course I'm preaching to the choir here.

I watched the beginning and then got caught up in trick-or-treaters, but was amazed to see Greinke had a hit, though of course he has done this before. Interesting difference between him and Mad Bum, who is/was usually looking to hit a homer when he's pinch hit.

   374. JJ1986 Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:25 PM (#6050809)
He was definitely out. What is the ump looking at? Is that not a challengable play?
   375. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:25 PM (#6050810)
Fried is lucky that didn't shatter every bone in his ankle.
   376. Rally Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:33 PM (#6050812)
In the first inning, how was Brantley safe? He did not step on the base as he passed first, stepped on Fried’s ankle. Fried’s foot wasn’t on the bag at the time of contact, but in the replays it sure looked like in the follow through his other foot contacted the base after the contact.
   377. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:35 PM (#6050815)
Seems like just a flat-out missed call.
   378. Snowboy Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:35 PM (#6050816)
Ump blew the call, that's how.
   379. Rally Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:52 PM (#6050819)
Guess I’m just shocked it wasn’t overturned on review. Watching with the sound turned down, so maybe the Braves didn’t ask for one. They were showing the replay long enough, while making sure Fried’s ankle was OK to continue, I just assumed they were reviewing.
   380. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 02, 2021 at 08:53 PM (#6050820)
Did the Braves organist ever play “Bang on the Drum” by Todd Rundgren for Altuve, Bregman or Correa? Seems like it would have been a good choice. Or go obscure but local with REM’s “Bang and Blame.”
   381. TomH Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:03 PM (#6050823)
odd bit of trivia
--
there have been 62 best-of-7 playoff series this century; 21 years worth, times 3, minus the not-yet-completed WS

only one team of the total of 124 total teams had a series where their hitters walked more than they struck out
(and it sure won't happen in ATL-HOU either, which will make 126)

any guesses?
   382. JJ1986 Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:04 PM (#6050824)
That was hit hard.
   383. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:05 PM (#6050825)
Oh my. Oh my my.
   384. Rally Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6050827)
Tom, 2002 Giants?

I’m actually surprised any team has done it, strikeouts have become so common. But I’m sure if it happened it was closer to 2001 than to 2021. And despite having K-Rod, Angels didn’t whiff too many, and they sure walked Bonds a lot.
   385. bunyon Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6050828)
379: I read on Twitter that once the runner gets past the base, touching the base isn’t enough, they he has to be tagged. I’m not sure I buy it but the fact that it wasn’t reviewed suggests that might be true.
   386. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:13 PM (#6050829)
Everyone here wrong on the fried play:

Nope. At first base all you have to do it be first to get past it. After that they have to tag you or appeal. Tagging base doesn’t work.


I'm guessing the possible injury distracted the braves.

...

Damn, I love soler.
   387. Rally Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:14 PM (#6050830)
Nope. Bonds was 13-3 Bb-K. Other Giants were 17-47.
   388. TomH Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6050832)
Good guess. Yes, closer to 2001 than 2021, like you said.
   389. JJ1986 Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:18 PM (#6050833)
2007 Red Sox against the Rockies?
   390. TomH Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:24 PM (#6050835)
close! 19 walks, 20 Ks
   391. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:40 PM (#6050842)
Sometimes I daydream of a world in which no one ever uses the words “speed,” “pressure” and “defense” in the same sentence again. Then I come back to reality, and I sigh.
   392. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:44 PM (#6050843)
Homers put pressure on the defense.
   393. sunday silence (again) Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:45 PM (#6050844)
50%+ of runs scored via HR:
..[ x] this game
..[x] this series
..[x ] this years playoffs
   394. bunyon Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:46 PM (#6050845)
The homer was because of the speed pressure.

Tom, 2004 Sox?
   395. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:47 PM (#6050846)
The home run differential in the series is striking.
   396. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6050848)
Dansby Swanson's Magnificent Hair strikes again.
   397. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6050849)
I called Astros in Six, so I was KIND of close. Just had my teams mixed up!
   398. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6050850)
Looks like I’m going to lose my annual bet with my father-in-law. The good news is it’s $2.
   399. sunday silence (again) Posted: November 02, 2021 at 09:57 PM (#6050852)
WExp now up to 95.7 per stat cast I bet the other site its a few pts lower.
   400. sunday silence (again) Posted: November 02, 2021 at 10:00 PM (#6050854)
yeah 94.2 per gregstoll website using 1960-2020 data set. I think some of these WExp models dont acct for home field advantage, which is probably around 3% at this pt in the game. Maybe thats the reason..
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