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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and their fathers are all the District Attorney.

Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2022 at 10:09 PM | 608 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   401. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 08, 2022 at 01:39 AM (#6104766)
flip
   402. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2022 at 08:56 AM (#6104775)
I understand the point of the no games on Election Day thing, but I gotta say I feel pretty strongly that watching hoops is better for our democracy than watching several hours of cable news.
   403. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 09:33 AM (#6104777)
The new Wolves PBP guy is pretty good, so there's one decent outcome from the offseason.


I was fond of Dave Benz and the new guy has not yet clicked with me yet. No reason, and he doesn't bug me or anything. And, of course, Dave Petersen remains amazing.
   404. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 08, 2022 at 10:03 AM (#6104779)
#388 Yes, I would say not having RW in the middle is hurting Boston's defense quite a bit. Even with him, though, I think remembering back to the Finals last season, wasn't he really giving the Warriors fits through the early part of that series, but then the blocks went down and he didn't seem to be as much of a factor as Golden State won those last 3 games? Did Kerr make some kind of offensive adjustment? Or am I not remembering that correctly?


Could be as simple as his knee injury caught up to him and he was worn out by the end of the series.
   405. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 08, 2022 at 10:18 AM (#6104782)
I kinda like these home and home serieses that were added to the schedule this year. I don't know how many they did, and I don't know how many of them are true back to backs. Bulls just had one with the Raps; in TOR Sunday and in CHI last night.

Toronto is a very frustrating team to play against, even shorthanded. Everyone but FVV is all arms, legs, and jumping (well, Thad Young and Otto Porter aren't exactly that jumpy these days). Christian Koloko is such a perfect Raps player.

Plus, Scottie Barnes did this.
   406. PJ Martinez Posted: November 08, 2022 at 10:26 AM (#6104784)
Could be as simple as his knee injury caught up to him and he was worn out by the end of the series.
Yeah, as I recall, Williams had days when he could summon something like full strength but was hobbled throughout the playoffs. Really hope that he can get back to what he was pre-injury, for his own sake and the team's. He's awesome when healthy, and Horford's a year older.
   407. spivey Posted: November 08, 2022 at 10:32 AM (#6104786)
I kinda like these home and home serieses that were added to the schedule this year. I don't know how many they did, and I don't know how many of them are true back to backs. Bulls just had one with the Raps; in TOR Sunday and in CHI last night.


I like them less. Not enough to throw a fit about it, but I'm unlikely to watch the Bucks (or anyone) play the same team 2 games in a row.

I also think it creates slight biases in the schedule, because it makes it significantly more likely that you play a team shorthanded for 2-3 games if you catch them at the right time.

I don't think it's a big enough deal to where they need to change it, if they think it's important for scheduling - but all else equal, I'd rather they not do it.
   408. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6104791)
Wright went 520–197, and he did it all with a smile and a handshake. Forget the titles; there is no more incredible accomplishment on Jay Wright’s docket during his time on the Main Line than the fact that he made Villanova basketball kind of likable. The teams he coached were both great and great to watch. He retired in an instant, without taking a yearlong tour to say goodbye as Philly celebrities sometimes do, and as highly successful college basketball coaches also tend to do. I cannot believe I’ve written so many nice things about Villanova basketball.

defecator.
   409. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6104796)
I like them less. Not enough to throw a fit about it, but I'm unlikely to watch the Bucks (or anyone) play the same team 2 games in a row.

I also think it creates slight biases in the schedule, because it makes it significantly more likely that you play a team shorthanded for 2-3 games if you catch them at the right time.

I don't think it's a big enough deal to where they need to change it, if they think it's important for scheduling - but all else equal, I'd rather they not do it.


This is me. Particularly when they turn into 3 games in a row. It's pretty weird, honestly to have such a large portion of the schedule against such a small number of teams.
   410. PJ Martinez Posted: November 08, 2022 at 12:40 PM (#6104798)
Are the Knicks a simulation? They are now 5-5 with a +0.0 point differential. They are 16th in offense, 16th in defense, and 15th in SRS. They have played five home games and five road games. They are 1-1 in overtime.
   411. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 08, 2022 at 03:43 PM (#6104818)
We just play soft, man,” Edwards said after the loss. “Like, every bump, we flying all over the place, including myself. Teams just coming in like, ‘We’re going to take their heart,’ and that’s what’s going on. We’re down 20 every game. We’ve got to figure it out.” That adjective, of course, echoes Jimmy Butler’s infamous castigation of Towns and the team after he bullied his way out of town following one campaign with the Wolves a few years back. Edwards isn’t wrong now, just as Butler wasn’t wrong then. The only difference is back then the Wolves were very much a young team trying to figure itself out, still two years away from drafting Edwards with the first pick. They are now invested. There is no backing out of this. They will have to make this work.

   412. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6104819)
Ant, while he certainly has room to improve, is far from the problem with the Wolves.
   413. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: November 08, 2022 at 03:55 PM (#6104820)
I'm a fan of the in-season miniseries, too: it's fun to see what adjustments teams make after the first game.

Even with [Williams III], though, I think remembering back to the Finals last season, wasn't he really giving the Warriors fits through the early part of that series, but then the blocks went down and he didn't seem to be as much of a factor as Golden State won those last 3 games? Did Kerr make some kind of offensive adjustment? Or am I not remembering that correctly?

I remember him looking more obviously hobbled as the series progressed, but the numbers don't really show a decline in impact:

game | +/- |  mins blks |
|------+-----+-------+------|
|    
|  -24:11 |    |
|    
|  -14:02 |    |
|    
| +21 15:02 |    |
|    
|  +31:27 |    |
|    
| +11 30:15 |    |
|    
|  -32:37 |    
   414. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6104821)
Edwards has been a huge part of the problem, and he's been kind of a borderline malcontent with some of these quotes.

Minnesota's weirdest problem: they play a giant lineup and they are still 22nd in defensive rebounding.
   415. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6104822)
Edwards has been a huge part of the problem, and he's been kind of a borderline malcontent with some of these quotes.

That clip the other day with him standing with his hands on his hips for an entire play was... not ideal.
   416. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6104823)
Ant, while he certainly has room to improve, is far from the problem with the Wolves.

For those that don't subscribe to Defector, this play is what kicks off the blog. I don't think I'm some blowhard old school type, but then again, I would immediately have called time out and benched him for the rest of the game for that ####.
   417. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:09 PM (#6104825)
Was just gonna say that. The clip in question. I mean I'm rooting for Gobert still but as a Jazz fan the Wolves imploding would also be ideal. I'd say Jazz last couple years also were as soft as Ant is saying the Wolves are. I think with the Wolves a lot of that would be KAT and with the Jazz I think it was mostly the guards and wings who got soft just expecting Rudy to bail them out on d but still pretty interesting. Probably not a good sign KAT has also called out Ant's diet to the press.
   418. PJ Martinez Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:21 PM (#6104828)
It's entirely possible I'm being obtuse (so don't hesitate to say so), but I don't really get the issue with that Edwards play. I assume it was drawn up for him to stay on the weak side? Which he did. And his defender stayed glued to him. And they got a good shot! Which that dude missed. I guess Edwards could have crashed the boards? But that's partly a question of defensive philosophy (i.e., whether you prioritize offensive rebounding or getting back on D).

What am I missing?
   419. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:23 PM (#6104829)
Edwards has been a huge part of the problem, and he's been kind of a borderline malcontent with some of these quotes.


Nah. The expectations for him were silly. Is he part of the problem? Sure. The team ain't that big and they are playing like crap, everyone at this point is part of the problem. But the problems neither start nor end with Ant.

And has no real filter. He is honest. This means he says stuff that most players are thinking, but don't say. He will have that beaten out of him soon enough.
   420. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:26 PM (#6104831)
What am I missing?


A single clip says everything you need to know about a player. Oh, wait.

Ant has not played great this year. His defense continues to be ... a work in progress*. His focus can wane during the game, which is not great. And the team around him is playing badly, which makes everyone look worse.

As for that specific play, I agree with you.

* There are reasons for this, but going through them will seem like excuse-making, and I really don't want to do that. He needs to do better, even with reasons.
   421. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:27 PM (#6104832)
Probably not a good sign KAT has also called out Ant's diet to the press.


Heh. That comment and everything around it was dissected endlessly locally. I think it says more about KAT than Ant, but not being in the locker room, obviously, it is hard to tell.
   422. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6104833)
IMO (and worth every penny) if you want to blame a player for the Wolves less than stellar start, start with D Russell. He has done most everything poorly. And as the PG and in theory one of the team leaders, he is somewhat responsible for the absolutely clunky offense.

It is a bad sign when everything looks much better when the backup PG is on the floor. That same backup PG who played in your spot in the final playoff game last year.

Looking at 2 and 3 man lineup groups on NBA.COM, most of the lineup groups with reasonable minutes and good net rating seem to have Ant and various backups (Nowel, JMac, and Naz Reid mostly).

Gobert has been not the problem, but also not the solution. He doesn't look as good physically. Not sure how much is age, playing Euro basketball, or what.
KAT has been OKish. I am giving him a bit of a pass so far because he has been asked to change more than any player I can remember and it is going to take some time. It is pretty rare to have an all-NBA player move to a brand-new position.

McDaniels has been up and down, as expected for a young player. If they make a starting lineup change, it probably starts with him, despite the fact that he is not really the main problem. A change there is the path of least resistance.
   423. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6104836)
And has no real filter. He is honest. This means he says stuff that most players are thinking, but don't say. He will have that beaten out of him soon enough.


Yes, the problem is that he's too honest. He keeps it too real. *eye roll*

I mean, maybe the problem is that he's kind of an #######.

He chucks shots at low efficiency and doesn't make plays for teammates. His turnovers are up and his assists are down. He's made negative progress and instead of taking responsibility, he blamed the team's big trade acquisition.
   424. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: November 08, 2022 at 05:31 PM (#6104837)
Heh. That comment and everything around it was dissected endlessly locally. I think it says more about KAT than Ant, but not being in the locker room, obviously, it is hard to tell.


Yeah, I don't think I want one of my star players calling out the other's diet to the press no matter what. I've also heard KAT and Rudy are already buds? It would make sense since they're both kind of different (for NBA players) and other players seem to really dislike them
   425. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 05:47 PM (#6104840)
He chucks shots at low efficiency and doesn't make plays for teammates. His turnovers are up and his assists are down. He's made negative progress and instead of taking responsibility, he blamed the team's big trade acquisition.


Small sample-size theater abounds. 10 games. His TS% is .551 versus a league average of .578. If you want to go crazy with that, feel free. Looking at the lineups, the lineups he is in perform better than other lineups. He is playing at roughly the level he was last year. But like I said, he needs to play better. Heck, the whole team needs to play better. But the origin of the problem is not Ant.

You can pretend there is all this other negative baggage around him if you want, but aside (and it is a big and unfortunate aside) from the off-season Instagram nonsense (which was bad and I am not diminishing) there is no real there there.
   426. spivey Posted: November 08, 2022 at 06:04 PM (#6104841)
I don't know how people can't see a problem with that Ant play. Guy stayed on him because he's Ant and doesn't have a history of doing that yet, but staying engaged in the play, being ready if a play gets blown up, being a better decoy - these are things that take very little effort. And that attitude will eventually start affecting the plays.

He was clearly trying to make a point with these.

I think he had a comment earlier about how everyone is in the paint and that's why he doesn't have a dunk yet. I mean, the fit is tricky for him because his jumpshot, handle, and passing are a bit sketch for your main initiator. But he's acting like he's not happy.
   427. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 08, 2022 at 06:09 PM (#6104843)
I don't know how people can't see a problem with that Ant play.


It was not great. Remember the whole stream of Embiid clips from earlier? That was a whole sequence, and while a bad look, was also not the end of the world.

   428. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2022 at 06:25 PM (#6104846)
I mean, the fit is tricky for him


This is the real point, IMO.

The fit is tricky for LeBron. It's tricky for Steph, it's tricky for Giannis, it's tricky for Luka. They have to be everything for their teams. Life would be so much easier for Steph on offense if he didn't have to generate everything. It'd be great if Giannis didn't have to be everywhere on defense. It'd be awesome if Luka could take a few plays off.

The fit is tricky for Paolo Banchero, playing next to two bigs and sharing the ball with a bunch of bums, but it doesn't matter because when you're that guy, you make it work.
   429. spivey Posted: November 08, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6104860)
It annoys me that Jrue Holiday hasn't made an allstar team since he joined New Orleans in 2013-14. He should be a fringe all-NBA guy pretty much his whole prime.
   430. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 08, 2022 at 10:55 PM (#6104864)
You're completely right, but he suffers from the classic award problem of getting a lot of his value from defense.
   431. aberg Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:16 PM (#6104865)
I have been extremely negative about this Wolves team from basically the first time I saw them all play together. I wasn't overly concerned about the defense and the defense has been basically fine. The offense just looks like such a mess. The spacing shouldn't be this much worse because Gobert is no worse at spacing than Vanderbilt was in the same spot most of last year. KAT just looks super uncomfortable, and if you have a top 10 offensive player, you probably don't want to take him so far out of his comfort zone at that end.

Like Mouse said, Russell has been so, so bad. The shooting has been abysmal, he's not getting guys open with his passing, and he's throwing incredibly dumb passes leading to easy transition points. It's the worst I've ever seen him play. With this roster, they need a facilitator who can make an open shot. They'd be much better off with Tyus Jones,

I think expectations got ahead of where Edwards is because he played well against Memphis in the playoffs. He JUST turned 21. He's also not in great shape right now. He has a long way to go in seeing the court and staying connected defensively, but I also have him way down the list of problems with the team.

It's bad. I'm depressed. I don't think it's going to get a lot better. I do like Jaylen Nowell a lot.
   432. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:22 PM (#6104866)
It was not great. Remember the whole stream of Embiid clips from earlier? That was a whole sequence, and while a bad look, was also not the end of the world.
iirc, that embiid clip reel did not show what it purported to show.

otoh, anthony edwards looked like jay cutler doing one of those wildcat plays.
   433. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:24 PM (#6104867)
trade machine: who says 'no'?
   434. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:33 PM (#6104868)
In this scenario Minny effectively traded four first round picks plus a swap for Tim Hardaway Jr and Dwight Powell, I suspect they say no.
   435. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2022 at 11:49 PM (#6104869)
In this scenario Minny effectively traded four first round picks plus a swap for Tim Hardaway Jr and Dwight Powell, I suspect they say no.


You think they hold out unless they get Ntilikina and Watanabe in the deal?
   436. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:00 AM (#6104873)
Precisely.
   437. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 09, 2022 at 08:27 AM (#6104876)
Unsurprisingly, I agree with #431.

Well, I think there is room to get better. When it is going bad, it is never really as bad as it looks.
   438. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 09, 2022 at 10:48 AM (#6104887)
MIN

+ Kevin Durant
- KAT
- Prince

LAL

+ Kyrie Irving
+ Taurean Prince

BKN

+ KAT
+ Westbrook
- Kyrie Irving
- Kevin Durant

Who says no? Assume FRP move around too.
   439. aberg Posted: November 09, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6104889)
Well, I think there is room to get better.


Yes, I was being too negative. It will get better. What I mean to say is that I am already very pessimistic that this team could make the WCF, which was basically my barometer of whether the Gobert trade was worth it. It's possibly still salvageable, but it's going to take a lot more maneuvering.

Ironically, I suggested KAT for Durant to some friends. They didn't like it but I think I do. KAT and Gobert is such a clumsy combo and I don't think they're just going to turn around and flip Gobert right away. That squad still needs a PG, but the rest of the fit makes so much more sense.
   440. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 09, 2022 at 11:26 AM (#6104892)
#438 might make all three teams better.
   441. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 09, 2022 at 11:29 AM (#6104893)
#439 It was always going to be clunky. I don't even mind the clunky (to start with, especially since it seems like KAT is trying to make it work and seems to have OK chemistry with Gobert). The lack of effort though is completely unacceptable and is a real test for Finch.

I am willing to let things play out, but it is getting late early.
   442. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 09, 2022 at 11:52 AM (#6104895)
I mean, a Russell/Ant/McDaniels/KD/Gobert lineup makes a lot more sense, yeah.
   443. aberg Posted: November 09, 2022 at 12:08 PM (#6104898)
I would be interested to hear what non-Wolves fans think of the relative value of KAT vs. KD. KD obviously better but a lot older. Contracts are similar length. Do Wolves have to give up more in that deal? I suppose part of it is whether KD is interested in this pairing. The larger issue is that I think the Wolves as a market are pretty tied down with KAT. He has been loyal to Minnesota when he didn't have to be and that tends to mean a lot in the state. It's hard for me to see them dangling him even if it makes the most sense.
   444. Paul D(uda) Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:02 PM (#6104904)
Whoa, Brooklyn hires Jacques Vaughan to coach. Good for them?
   445. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6104907)
Twitter rumors pretty strongly had it that Silver got involved behind the scenes to dissuade Brooklyn from hiring Udoka. Count this as a win for Silver's behind-the-scenes maneuvering, as per our discussion, I suppose. The Kyrie situation also seems to be much more in hand than it was a week ago, so maybe he knows what he's doing.

Good for Jacques Vaughan; I hope this isn't just setting him up to fail with the roster.
   446. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6104909)
I would be interested to hear what non-Wolves fans think of the relative value of KAT vs. KD. KD obviously better but a lot older. Contracts are similar length. Do Wolves have to give up more in that deal? I suppose part of it is whether KD is interested in this pairing. The larger issue is that I think the Wolves as a market are pretty tied down with KAT. He has been loyal to Minnesota when he didn't have to be and that tends to mean a lot in the state. It's hard for me to see them dangling him even if it makes the most sense.


I'm a Wolves fan but I suspect that my view on KAT is going to align with non-Wolves fans.

KAT has such great numbers and is such an offensive unicorn, that one of two things has to be true of him, given that the Wolves haven't done squat during his tenure:

1) His box score numbers are great and they are offset by stuff the box score doesn't capture (defensive cluelessness, poor decision making) or that most fans tend not to value (he can't rebound); or
2) His surrounding cast has been so much worse than you would tend to see anywhere else.

#2 has merit, but this season is quickly pointing away from it as the sole/primary option.

I know analytical people tend to stay away from squishy judgments like "KAT's not a winner", but I would lay hard cash that's how he's perceived around the league. Of course the Wolves would need to throw more in to the deal.

P.S. I like your writing on Canis. I hope the comment section there stops being...whatever it is right now.
   447. bob gee Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:21 PM (#6104911)
good for the nets, and good for vaughan. i hope things work out well for him.

reports today that kyrie was defiant of nash's plays, according to other teams' scouts, and had at least 10 times in one game done something completely different than nash's play:
https://nypost.com/2022/11/08/defiant-kyrie-irving-blew-off-steve-nashs-nets-play-calls/
   448. aberg Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6104912)
P.S. I like your writing on Canis. I hope the comment section there stops being...whatever it is right now.


Different aberg. Popular midwestern name and initial.
   449. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6104913)
Different aberg. Popular midwestern name and initial.


Ah. My fault for assuming.
   450. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6104914)
Duplicate post.
   451. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 09, 2022 at 01:51 PM (#6104915)
Obviously, KD is more valuable than KAT, and obviously, when KD becomes available for trades, he'll fetch a better package. But.
   452. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 09, 2022 at 02:10 PM (#6104917)
Twitter rumors pretty strongly had it that Silver got involved behind the scenes to dissuade Brooklyn from hiring Udoka. Count this as a win for Silver's behind-the-scenes maneuvering, as per our discussion, I suppose. The Kyrie situation also seems to be much more in hand than it was a week ago, so maybe he knows what he's doing.
true.

i didn't wind up posting anything about this on the last page, but when the kyrie/udoka stories were at a peak, i did have the thought that silver's absence from the conversation was an indication that he was in the process of being removed/resigning as commissioner. i don't think i've seen rumors of it anywhere, but basically, i wonder/wondered if silver's moves against sarver eroded enough of his support from the board of governors that he'd been rendered a lame duck. we know how hard marc cuban fought to keep donald sterling in the league, and yet, he's been very uncharacteristically quiet in public as this sarver situation has unfolded, which is...curious. now maybe cuban's silence is an indication that he'd been put in his place by his own organization's very public troubles with harassment, excess and abuse of power; or maybe, cuban had been moving behind the scenes. it's not like silver hasn't pissed off some of the NBA's other power brokers by taking away draft picks, by pulling all-star games out of cities over "quote"politics"quote", and by giving the players more of a voice in the decision making process.

but then, the udoka thing, and then the draymond thing, and then the kyrie thing, and there was never a good time for silver to actually step down as commissioner. so he's just kind of there right now, all weekend at bernie's like.


this has been my ted talk.
   453. tshipman Posted: November 09, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6104918)
I think if you trade KD, you have to get younger and not focus on being good.

KAT is a second round ceiling player. If he is your best player, you have a hard ceiling. That player can be great! Kevin Love has a ring! But he needs to find the right context for his skill set.
   454. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 09, 2022 at 02:35 PM (#6104919)
I would be interested to hear what non-Wolves fans think of the relative value of KAT vs. KD. KD obviously better but a lot older. Contracts are similar length. Do Wolves have to give up more in that deal? I suppose part of it is whether KD is interested in this pairing. The larger issue is that I think the Wolves as a market are pretty tied down with KAT. He has been loyal to Minnesota when he didn't have to be and that tends to mean a lot in the state. It's hard for me to see them dangling him even if it makes the most sense.
i think you nailed it. given the degree of loyalty that KAT has shown towards minnesota, it would be a mistake for them to trade him for anything less than two organization's worth of process-level stockpiles.


i think MIN needs someone like pat riley (doesn't everybody?) to come in as an executive, and sort things out for KAT. maybe he's just not ever going to be about that basketball life, but even then, if you can build the right team around him, you should still be able to get more than what you've gotten.
   455. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 09, 2022 at 02:55 PM (#6104921)
To be clear, I don't think the Wovles should trade KAT for KD. I am a little befuddled, because a lot of the #### seems like stuff that Finch should be able to control? Some of it is just, yeah, they haven't played together much, and the best player is being asked to change his game entirely, so a slow start is fine. But some of it seems like execution and focus, and that's what I trust Finch on?
   456. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 09, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6104922)
To be clear, I don't think the Wovles should trade KAT for KD. I am a little befuddled, because a lot of the #### seems like stuff that Finch should be able to control? Some of it is just, yeah, they haven't played together much, and the best player is being asked to change his game entirely, so a slow start is fine. But some of it seems like execution and focus, and that's what I trust Finch on?


My pecking order of blame.

1) DLo. Seriously dude has been bad, and not the cool kind of bad. Just bad.
2) Roster construction/Fit/Chemistry/Expected part of the acclimation to change. Includes KAT moving positions and such.
3) A lack of team leadership. KAT is not a leader. DLo is not a leader. Gobert is too new (and may not be a leader). Ant is too young. No one else has the playing time, ability, respect, and leadership skills to make a dent in what is happening.
4) Finch. See above. It is his job to work through, mitigate, or solve the above, and he has not (yet).
5) Gobert and Ant. Neither has met the expectations they had coming into the season. There might be good reasons, but still neither has delivered as hoped.
   457. aberg Posted: November 09, 2022 at 03:09 PM (#6104923)
My pecking order of blame.

1) DLo. Seriously dude has been bad, and not the cool kind of bad. Just bad.
2) Roster construction/Fit/Chemistry/Expected part of the acclimation to change. Includes KAT moving positions and such.
3) A lack of team leadership. KAT is not a leader. DLo is not a leader. Gobert is too new (and may not be a leader). Ant is too young. No one else has the playing time, ability, respect, and leadership skills to make a dent in what is happening.
4) Finch. See above. It is his job to work through, mitigate, or solve the above, and he has not (yet).
5) Gobert and Ant. Neither has met the expectations they had coming into the season. There might be good reasons, but still neither has delivered as hoped.


Co-sign. There aren't many non-stars who have the gravitas and respect to become locker room leaders. They had one last year in Pat Bev. That's a less quantifiable gap that they haven't filled.
   458. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 09, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6104928)
Relevant primer RT:
@ProCityHoops
Minnesota Timberwolves with Rudy Gobert on and off the court this season.

ON:
101.1 OFF RTG (30th in NBA)
104.0 DEF RTG (2nd in NBA)

OFF:
116.2 OFF RTG (3rd in NBA)
113.3 DEF RTG (23rd in NBA)
   459. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 09, 2022 at 04:52 PM (#6104930)
It's time for on-the-fly substitutions in the NBA. Past time, really.
   460. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 09, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6104956)
Elon Musk’s Twitter has introduced a subscription program that allows anyone to have a blue check—which previously meant a user was who they said they were—if they pay money for it. This was different than the other change today, when Twitter added a second verification check with the word “Official”; this move was killed within hours by Musk himself. Twitter’s various grasps at profit and moderation are difficult to keep straight, even more so if you don’t use Twitter, but what you should know is that for the time being, essentially anyone with $8 can pass themselves off as a famous person or legitimate entity and make #### up. This has already happened to Twitter itself.

Maybe this feature will be refined or removed within hours of this post being published. Maybe not. It’s difficult to predict what Musk will tell his company to do, and anyway I’m not Matt Levine (verified) and I don’t get paid for that. All I feel confident saying at this time is that a few rascals with dollars to burn have already taken advantage of this to pretend to be famous athletes making significant life decisions. This change has made all of the Fake Wojs and Adarn Schefters more effective, because it now takes two extra steps to figure out whether a tweet is coming from a legitimate source.

   461. PJ Martinez Posted: November 09, 2022 at 11:15 PM (#6104978)
Saw this clip, immediately thought of this thread (and no. 456 in particular). Oof.
   462. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: November 10, 2022 at 01:23 AM (#6104984)
Orlando beat Dallas?

Just random MOML stuff, but what a disastrous result for both teams.

Spurs seem to have righted the tanking ship after a 5-2 start.
   463. spivey Posted: November 10, 2022 at 08:55 AM (#6104992)
Saw this clip, immediately thought of this thread (and no. 456 in particular). Oof.


That made the rounds last night on NBA Twitter. My favorite thing in the play is after the shot goes in, DLo looks back to the bench and has his hands out in some sort of "Who let this happen??" gesture.
   464. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 10, 2022 at 11:01 AM (#6105001)
I for one thought DLo would be much better, not just than whatever the hell this is, but than last year.
   465. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 10, 2022 at 11:10 AM (#6105003)
It won't happen, but I would be OK with putting JMac and Nowell into the starting lineup and letting Do and Ant run the bench/backups for a game or two to send a message.
   466. spivey Posted: November 10, 2022 at 12:59 PM (#6105022)
While we're dunking on the TWolves, here's another one:

The beautiful game
   467. tshipman Posted: November 11, 2022 at 09:36 PM (#6105197)
The evolutionary PnR, the Pick-and-Bol.
   468. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 11, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6105205)
Just pondering the Timberwolves situation makes me deeply miserable.
   469. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: November 12, 2022 at 01:47 AM (#6105209)
Yeah. I'm sorry, Wovles fans. You guys don't deserve this.
   470. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 12, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6105216)
Yeah. I'm sorry, Wovles fans. You guys don't deserve this.

I don’t know it seems pretty much the Wovles fan experience to a T.
   471. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 12, 2022 at 10:14 AM (#6105217)
Deserves got nothing to do with it.
   472. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 12, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6105218)
So I am out on DLo. Just done on him. Bench his a$$ and let SloMo, Ant, and JMac combo point guard things. DLo can have some garbage time minutes, that would fit. His play has been utterly unacceptable.
   473. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 12, 2022 at 11:54 AM (#6105221)
I’m surprised at how poorly Russell is trying; he’s playing himself out of millions of dollars.
   474. Moeball Posted: November 12, 2022 at 04:29 PM (#6105266)
Yes,you're supposed to do it like Jordan Poole. Get the big contract first, THEN play like crap.
   475. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 13, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6105356)
I’m surprised at how poorly Russell is trying; he’s playing himself out of millions of dollars.
He is bad offensively and worse defensively. There is no basketball reason - unless you think this is just a slump or something - to start him. And his play last year*, including being benched at the end of the deciding game in the playoffs, suggests this is not just a slump.

* And, well, his career to date, but that is just piling on.
   476. jmurph Posted: November 13, 2022 at 05:25 PM (#6105399)
Heard this in their game last night (loss to the Celtics): Detroit has trailed by double digits in every game this year, including their wins. Wonder how long they can keep it up.
   477. Harlond Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:34 PM (#6105407)
Deangelo Russell is 6 for 6 in the first quarter of today’s game against Cleveland.
   478. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:49 PM (#6105410)
Hmmm, D-Lo for Kyrie? Challenge trade?
   479. asinwreck Posted: November 13, 2022 at 08:01 PM (#6105419)
Russell's final season as a Net wasn't bad.
   480. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 13, 2022 at 09:45 PM (#6105424)
Well, there's one in a row.
   481. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 14, 2022 at 07:41 AM (#6105437)
It is pretty clear that I motivated DLo. I don't deserve all of the credit mind you.
   482. jmurph Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:20 AM (#6105440)
Holy #### OKC-Knicks was 145-135, in a game that didn't go to OT?
   483. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 14, 2022 at 11:03 AM (#6105457)
Jon Johnson @jonjohnsonwip
More impressive than Joel Embiid's 59 pts, 11 reb, 8 ast, 7 blk... Sixers scored 27 pts in the fourth quarter, Embiid had 26 of them. All-time regular season performance

Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
PJ Tucker was asked whether Embiid said anything about his performance during the game.
Tucker: "Jo don't say nothing. Just called the play he wanted."
Reporter: "So he just kept calling his own number?
Tucker: "They're all for him anyways. It's just which one do you wanna run."
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Tyrese Maxey came out to his postgame press conference and joked that if we asked any questions that weren't about Joel Embiid, he wasn't going to answer them.

Maxey: "He's just really good at basketball...except when he's throwing the ball to the other team."
   484. tshipman Posted: November 14, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6105474)
Warriors seem to be likely to make an in-season move, which they rarely do.

Wiseman has received 3 straight DNP-CD, and has been awful. This is probably the last chance to move him for neutral value.

Myles Turner for Wiseman + Kuminga works, but the Warriors probably don't want to do that deal.
Isaiah Hartenstein for Wiseman works, but has to wait for 12/15
Poetl for Wiseman works, but the Warriors probably have to add value

Probably something like Hartenstein?

   485. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 14, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6105490)
I am very pessimistic about Wiseman. I don't expect him to turn into anything useful.
   486. DCA Posted: November 14, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6105492)
Honestly I'm not very optimistic about Moody and Kuminga either (or Baldwin, or Rollins). I mean, there's potential, but every team has a half-dozen young guys with potential and this group doesn't stand out in any way. The Warriors core is now Curry and the in-between-timelines guys: Poole, Wiggins, Looney; even Lamb and Jerome look like nice back-of-the-rotation finds. Hartenstein fits that timeline and is signed for next year, I'd make that move. Poeltl and Turner are rentals, don't think I would.
   487. . . . . . . Posted: November 14, 2022 at 04:01 PM (#6105496)
Why would someone trade Hartenstein, who doesn't suck, for Wiseman, who does?
   488. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 14, 2022 at 06:10 PM (#6105515)
Forget Hartenstein, is there a team that should consider trading for Wiseman? He's a seven footer who's very athletic but not shown any real basketball skill and has been pretty injured for his career so far. He's an upside play, I guess, but he costs 12m next year with a 15m qualifying offer because he was the #2 pick. Plenty of teams could think about a flier on him, but I'm not sure who would give up much value to acquire him at this point. This doesn't seem like a particularly forgiving era of NBA basketball for toolsy/low-skill center projects, and I imagine Wiseman's trade value suffers for that fact.
   489. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 14, 2022 at 07:02 PM (#6105519)
Why would someone trade Hartenstein, who doesn't suck, for Wiseman, who does?


Knicks being Knicks is the only explanation I have, but yes it does seem like a bad idea.
   490. tshipman Posted: November 14, 2022 at 07:09 PM (#6105521)
Forget Hartenstein, is there a team that should consider trading for Wiseman? He's a seven footer who's very athletic but not shown any real basketball skill and has been pretty injured for his career so far. He's an upside play, I guess, but he costs 12m next year with a 15m qualifying offer because he was the #2 pick. Plenty of teams could think about a flier on him, but I'm not sure who would give up much value to acquire him at this point. This doesn't seem like a particularly forgiving era of NBA basketball for toolsy/low-skill center projects, and I imagine Wiseman's trade value suffers for that fact.


It's hard to say!

His value is definitely nearing an inflection point. The #2 overall pick has high value before the selection is made. Once the selection is made, the value decreases until the prospect is either a bust, or proven to be a star.

Wiseman has been awful on defense--truly terrible. However, his performance does have some positive indicators on offense. He's a good finisher, and he generates a good volume of shots. He finishes at the bucket pretty well, and he has a decent floater.

Teams draft toolsy bigs in the lottery all the time. It's not 100% clear to me that Wiseman is a worse player than Mark Williams or Jalen Duren from this year, for example.

My position is awkward because:
1. I agree that Wiseman is bad and probably should be considered negative value.
2. Teams have a revealed preference for tools with bigs that is slightly illogical.
3. I'm not sure whether Wiseman is in the "Whiteside zone" where the tools are proven to result in poor value, or if he still has backers.
4. The Warriors should probably act sooner rather than later before he's adequately proven that he sucks.
   491. aberg Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6105529)
Wiseman feels destined for the Hornets.
   492. jmurph Posted: November 15, 2022 at 07:36 AM (#6105591)
They won another title anyway, but if the Warriors really whiffed on all three of those guys that would be pretty disastrous for their medium and long term prospects.
   493. PJ Martinez Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:38 AM (#6105596)
It also kind of gives the lie to the whole "light years ahead" silliness that Lacob has peddled in the past. I don't know if anyone still buys that (or how many ever did), but it seemed to come up again after their latest title. The Warriors are well run and well coached (the occasional punch to a teammate's face aside), but the heart of their recent run of success is nailing three draft picks (Curry most crucially), and building well around them (plus the flukish cap spike, but they were already a great team by then). A badly run franchise could have screwed that up, but there's always lots of luck involved, along with everything else, and luck comes and goes.
   494. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6105599)
I have no idea why Mark Williams isn't getting burn on a stinky Hornets team. They should be testing their young guys like Williams and Bouknight, trying to keep LaMelo happy, and looking to flip Gargantuan Happenstance, and maybe Rozier.

In other news, Dennis Smith Jr. is on the team!
   495. KronicFatigue Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6105600)
460. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 09, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6104956)
Elon Musk’s Twitter has introduced a subscription program that allows anyone to have a blue check—which previously meant a user was who they said they were—if they pay money for it. This was different than the other change today, when Twitter added a second verification check with the word “Official”; this move was killed within hours by Musk himself. Twitter’s various grasps at profit and moderation are difficult to keep straight, even more so if you don’t use Twitter, but what you should know is that for the time being, essentially anyone with $8 can pass themselves off as a famous person or legitimate entity and make #### up. This has already happened to Twitter itself.

Maybe this feature will be refined or removed within hours of this post being published. Maybe not. It’s difficult to predict what Musk will tell his company to do, and anyway I’m not Matt Levine (verified) and I don’t get paid for that. All I feel confident saying at this time is that a few rascals with dollars to burn have already taken advantage of this to pretend to be famous athletes making significant life decisions. This change has made all of the Fake Wojs and Adarn Schefters more effective, because it now takes two extra steps to figure out whether a tweet is coming from a legitimate source.


If I'm using Twitter on my browser, and I hover anywhere over a person in my timeline, their profile pops up. I then have to click on that (or click on the person to start) to get to their profile page. At that point, I then have to click (not hover) on the blue check mark to find out what kind of blue check mark it is.

The technology exists (since we're in the 21st century) to make it where a hover over the blue check mark could instantly tell you about it (paid for vs official). But no, instead, I have to click two times to confirm and then go backwards to reply.

And best I can tell, on the 3rd party mobile apps I use, there's literally no way to get that blue check mark info. Granted, it's a new thing, so maybe the app will update, but as of now, I can't tell what's what on mobile. There have been links that I've wanted to follow but won't, because I can't be sure if it's being sent from a legit group.
   496. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 15, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6105621)
There isn't/wasn't supposed to be _any_ difference between 'paid for' blue check marks and 'official' check marks (the latter of which were going to cease to exist).
   497. DCA Posted: November 15, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6105623)
I can't get this idea out of my head, but I can't see how to make it work either:

To SAS: Wiseman
To GSW: Crowder
To PHO: Poeltl

Which also frees the Suns up to move Ayton in January. If the whole deal can wait until then:

To PHO: Durant, Poeltl
To SAS: Ayton
To GSW: Crowder
To BRK: Wiseman, Saric, all the picks
   498. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 15, 2022 at 01:34 PM (#6105646)
It also kind of gives the lie to the whole "light years ahead" silliness that Lacob has peddled in the past.

That's just bog-standard Silicon Valley triumphalism. It turns out that their main competitive advantage was a) drafting well and b) spending boatloads of money. That's not nothing! But it's not the ####### Manhattan Project, either.
   499. spivey Posted: November 15, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6105653)
Golden State's main competitive advantage was they locked up Curry's prime with a significantly under value contract due to his injury history.

Like any team, they did many other things well and some not well, but getting Curry and then getting his services for relative ashtray money were what built the dynasty.
   500. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: November 15, 2022 at 03:55 PM (#6105658)
Fun with selective endpoints:

2008 draft: Anthony Randolph @pick 14
2009 draft: Curry
2010 draft: Ekbe Udoh @6.
2011 draft: Klay @11
2012 draft: H. Barnes @7, Festus Ezeli @30, Draymond @35 (great draft! Three Finals contributors!)
2013 draft: no picks

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