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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and their fathers are all the District Attorney.

Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2022 at 10:09 PM | 562 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   501. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 15, 2022 at 04:19 PM (#6105661)
Flippant, but.
   502. spivey Posted: November 15, 2022 at 09:38 PM (#6105715)
I love Jose Alvarado.
   503. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 15, 2022 at 11:49 PM (#6105733)
Sacramento is 3pt variancing the daylights out of the Nets by 35 right now.
   504. KronicFatigue Posted: November 16, 2022 at 08:24 AM (#6105739)
Golden State's main competitive advantage was they locked up Curry's prime with a significantly under value contract due to his injury history.


Is it also undervalued because he literally changed the game and his skillset is now the most coveted in the league? Even if he was fully healthy, the NBA wouldn't have known that Curry was the most valuable asset until Curry came around? Or if he was healthy, he would have gotten whatever the CBA allowed at the time, regardless?
   505. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 16, 2022 at 12:42 PM (#6105771)
StatMuse @statmuse
Ben Simmons first 10-point game in over 500 days:

11 PTS
5-7 FG

The Nets lost by 32.
   506. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: November 16, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6105772)
today, in 57i66135 might actually know what he's talking about:

2. I'm selling hard the idea that Portland is a contender in the West. Their only win was against an Israeli team when they hit 52% on their 3s. Against actual NBA teams, they were 0-4 and gave up 120 per game.
Who are you selling this to?!? I don't think there are any buyers out there.
Well, Portland seems to think that, based on their actions this offseason.

More credibly, Vegas has them 10th in the West, and I think that based on their preseason, they may be among the very worst teams in the league.
I think it's reasonable based on the roster to think of Portland as roughly a 40 win team. That's where I was as well. However, their preseason results have been so bad that I now think they are worse than that.

538. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: October 15, 2022 at 10:45 AM (#6100855)
putting aside lillard and nurkic for a moment...

jerami grant, justice winslow, nassir little and josh hart are the kind of versatile, multi-faceted swiss-army knives that modern teams are supposed to build around. despite the organization overall being an absolute shitshow, their roster isn't. their core isn't old and beat up; nor is it young and woefully inexperienced; they have a lot of players at peak/prime age, and teams that are built with that kind of core don't usually fall on their face. oh yeah, and unlike most of the teams that are stuck in the bottom-mid tier, they have a legit star PG who can singlehandedly win games for them.


basically, i'm not buying them as being one of the 5 worst teams in the NBA. especially not when those teams that are legitimately bad will be tanking their asses off from day 1 of the season.
   507. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:22 PM (#6105883)
manute bol played 624 career regular season games and never scored more than 18 in a game. tonight, his kid (who looked like he could wash out of the league a few months ago) scored 26. surprisingly, he also bested his dad's career high for drb in a game earlier this year when he had 15. (not that that was manute's strength)
   508. spivey Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:46 PM (#6105887)
Bol Bol is incredibly intriguing. I think he's a better player and a better "contract" than Jalen Suggs.

Milwaukee playing like crap right now with 50% of their rotation minutes out, but they pulled out a win tonight. Jevon Carter getting to show out a bit, which I think is valuable for long-term things. Same with Beauchamp and Nwora getting minutes they probably don't deserve.
   509. bob gee Posted: November 17, 2022 at 07:48 AM (#6105897)
I've seen some games of Bol this year where he'll dribble around multiple players half/full court and get a bank shot in. I've also seen some times where he looks lost on defense, but also times where his presence influences the shot.

However - his positive play this year mirrors Youtube highlights (which was almost all I saw before this year).

My question - what happened in Denver where he got almost no run, and then how Orlando became a place of last resort?
   510. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:48 AM (#6105899)
i should defer to denver fans but --
bol's motor was worse there (still needs work), they misused him (he's clearly a forward, not a center), he struggled to stay healthy, teammates didn't seem to trust him.

reading his metrics, he looks like a roughly average defender (and average player) right now, but one that might be very matchup dependent? post protection isn't great and teams will go at him, but he will block a ton of shots. pretty mobile, has no issue staying with fours (and some threes), and his defensive ft travelled #s are really high. doesn't play passing lanes at all, will disrupt jump shots.
i kind of don't know how to evaluate him as a playmaker. his a/to numbers stink, but metrics like "potential assists" are a lot kinder and scouting reports far less bearish on that part of his game.
i wish he shot more threes and more in general. i think there's some similarities between him and christian wood. similarly, he could be a good stats on a bad team guy, which i think is a little overdone as a concept but not not a thing. banchero coming back could hurt him.

pretty good for roughly 2m a year.
   511. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:13 AM (#6105901)
jevon carter is so fun.

i'm incredibly busy of late and only get to digest games in chunks here and there (and have had almost no time to also watch baseball in months) but suggs looks a lot better than he did last year. the numbers are also improved, but to replacement level versus real real bad. i think he'll be a legit nba player still, but certainly not up to the hype.
   512. spivey Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:14 AM (#6105902)
Dunno if he'd get it but I think Brook Lopez has a very valid DPOY candidacy early into the season. These things I feel are very narrativey, and he is leading the league in blocks.

Der K: You've seen Bol play more than I have I'm sure. But he's a young guy without many minutes in this league and has shown a lot of skills you can't teach. It's way too early for me to want to nitpick the lack of 3s, say he's an empty stats guy, etc. He's putting up a .722 TS% on a pretty interesting diet of shots (only 52% of his 2s are assisted). I think every team would love to have him.

Golden State: Now 0-8 on the road. Moody/Wiseman/Kuminga playing very little minutes, so you can no longer say "Well if they trim the minutes, they'll be fine". They seem very small and unathletic. If anything, this poor season makes me more impressed with last year than disappointed with this year.
   513. It's Spelled With a CFBF, But Not Where You Think Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:51 AM (#6105907)
manute bol played 624 career regular season games and never scored more than 18 in a game. tonight, his kid (who looked like he could wash out of the league a few months ago) scored 26. surprisingly, he also bested his dad's career high for drb in a game earlier this year when he had 15. (not that that was manute's strength)


But when does Bol Bol hit six three pointers in a half?
   514. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 10:25 AM (#6105910)
I don't know how realistic this is, but it really seems like the Warriors should roll up all the young players, including Poole, throw in some draft picks, and get the best player available for trade that they can. Steph is too good. Give him and Thompson and Green one more shot at it, even if the latter two have fallen off. Ride this out a couple more years before the inevitable rebuilding begins. It may be a somewhat risky play, but it strikes me as the best one to make.
   515. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:14 AM (#6105915)
I don't know how realistic this is, but it really seems like the Warriors should roll up all the young players, including Poole, throw in some draft picks, and get the best player available for trade that they can. Steph is too good. Give him and Thompson and Green one more shot at it, even if the latter two have fallen off. Ride this out a couple more years before the inevitable rebuilding begins. It may be a somewhat risky play, but it strikes me as the best one to make.

Kevin Durant, come on down.
   516. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6105918)
Durant, Anthony Davis, whoever they can get.
   517. tshipman Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6105919)
Golden State: Now 0-8 on the road. Moody/Wiseman/Kuminga playing very little minutes, so you can no longer say "Well if they trim the minutes, they'll be fine". They seem very small and unathletic. If anything, this poor season makes me more impressed with last year than disappointed with this year.


They need to play better, but GS's performance on the road is largely variance driven. On the road, teams have shot 40% from 3, while in Chase Center, teams have shot 30.3%.

The big thing for them this year compared to last year is the rebounding. Last year they were the #2 rebounding team, this year they are 25th. Rebounding normalizes very early, so this level of performance is concerning.
   518. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 17, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6105930)
Man, the Pelicans are a fun team to watch. That Grizz/Pels game the other night was awesome, I'd love to see them in a playoff series. Even when the Pels are blowing out your team (like they did last night to the Bulls), they're just a goddman joy. Trey Murphy looked amazing last night, shooting from Curry distance and dunking all over guys.

As fans, we really deserve to watch a fully healthy Pels team in the playoffs.
   519. DCA Posted: November 17, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6105941)
#514 -

I get the idea, but I just don't think it works. Poole's got the poison pill contract, he's basically impossible to move until next year, except to Spurs and Pacers who have open cap space.

Even then, I don't think Curry + Dray + Wiggins + Klay's corpse + one more guy + waiver wive bench mob is good enough. Better to hope that Poole gets back to what he was last year, Klay improves to not terrible, and one of the young guys takes a step forward - not a great trifecta bet, but I think it's more upside and more likely than breaking the bank, and doesn't hamstring the future.
   520. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 17, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6105943)
The real problem is that Klay has looked cooked, no?
   521. spivey Posted: November 17, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6105975)
Klay was cooked last year and they won the title. But yes, that is a problem. Jordan Poole averaging 1.8 rebounds a game is also a problem. Basically everything is much worse than last year besides Curry.

I feel like Memphis and the Pelicans are the best teams in the West. But I don't think you can pick the Pels to come out of the west, because experience matters. But I guess the Grizzlies are my pick?

I think I'd rather see them both play "old guard" teams than each other.
   522. tshipman Posted: November 17, 2022 at 06:36 PM (#6105976)
This must be the worst year for the West since maybe the Heatles. I would favor Milwaukee and Boston almost 2-1 over any team in the West.
   523. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 07:21 PM (#6105980)
Phoenix has the best net rating in the West so far, FWIW, which is maybe not very much (I have no idea to what extent luck and variance have played a role in that, and haven't watched them much at all). Memphis's net rating to this point (again, FWIW) is not great — they're below the Kings and the Wolves, among various less surprising teams. I'm sticking with my Denver prediction, if only out of stubbornness. Agree that the West in general is underwhelming so far.
   524. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:58 PM (#6105997)
Boston has the best SRS in the league at 7.02. This seems crazy low for 15 games in when you'd expect variance from small sample size. In fact, by my napkin math, if all teams in the league were inherently .500 teams you'd expect one team to have a +7 SRS by random luck. I don't think that but point being, this is a lot of parity.
   525. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:14 PM (#6105999)
David Locke made that point on Twitter the other day, using (I think) raw point differential, and comparing this season so far to the same point in the last seven or so seasons. In almost all the other seasons, there was at least one team in double digits. (And, usually, that season's champion was already near the top in point differential, perhaps unsurprisingly.)
   526. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6106044)
Good to see Kawhi got some minutes in against a G-League opponent last night.
   527. bob gee Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:58 AM (#6106045)
Thanks for the thoughts on Bol. He hasn't impressed me (eye test) with his passing, but when you have someone that tall who can handle the ball OK and shoot 3s and alter shot selection, I would have expected him to get many more opportunities than he had.

Simmons had his first game where from start to finish he seemed engaged. Ball zipped off his hands on many passes, pushed the pace. At the start of the season, he would bring the ball up slow and be looking to hand the ball off, and seemed to be staying out of the action. One thing he is still doing - when he sets a pick, most times, he doesn't pop (for obvious reasons). But he also doesn't really roll. It's either pick-and-stand there, or pick and move slowly. I'm hoping that changes.

He also played excellent defense on Dame and Nurkic. Prior to this, his defense was often stand near the person with the ball, but tonight (and a little last game) he was up tight, fighting around screens, etc.
   528. spivey Posted: November 18, 2022 at 01:53 PM (#6106078)
If Basketball Twitter is going to die, I welcome them here to this highly stable and prosperous website!
   529. smileyy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 03:33 PM (#6106102)
Wait till Jim lays off 50% of the moderators and directs developers to work 80 hour weeks.
   530. PJ Martinez Posted: November 19, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6106153)
Giannis's free throw shooting last night was... not good. Possibly cost them the game? (And then this happened afterward.)
   531. PJ Martinez Posted: November 19, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6106157)
More context on the Giannis-Harrell kerfuffle.
   532. tshipman Posted: November 19, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6106185)
The whole Giannis thing is confusing and seems to be rooted in hierarchy, unspoken rules and misunderstandings.

1. Giannis shot terribly at the line and did the whole thing where he was going to stay late to work on his FT shooting. Kobe sort of popularized this demonstrative self-flagellation, but it's been around for ages. It's kind of hokey, IMO, but fans like it. Not common, but not uncommon.
2. The 76ers had a fan event after the game where fans were going to be on court. This process seems to involve multiple steps to keep the court, players and fans safe.
3. Harrell *also* wanted to get some shots up after the game. I gather than the unspoken rule is that you get priority to work on your own home court.
4. Giannis's position seems to be that his desire to get shots up is normal, and basically his prerogative as an NBA star.
5. The 76ers seem to feel like while they normally might accommodate, this was more inconvenient than usual to the arena staff. (and that Giannis in particular was being kind of a dick about moving the ladder and not being patient).
6. Since there was only going to be one side of the court available for shooting, Harrell seemed to feel like he should have priority over Giannis and stepped in/escalated the issue.

Basically the boring answer in my opinion is that everyone is at fault.
   533. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 19, 2022 at 04:11 PM (#6106187)
If Basketball Twitter is going to die, I welcome them here to this highly stable and prosperous website!
"I estimate there are maybe 10-12 million Primates left on this site...."
   534. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: November 20, 2022 at 06:52 PM (#6106260)
spivey - make no mistake, i'd love to have bol on my team. been a long time fan (even stupidly drafted him in the lottery on this site!!). by bad stats good team i'm thinking things more like...
he'll get rebounds because he's quick and super long, but he doesn't box out people so his delta on team rebounding is iffier.
the defense is interesting, but i see tacticians being able to put him in bad situations in, say, the postseason.
dunks and threes has bol as at the 4th percentile for assist percentage and 16th for turnovers. it is difficult to be that low in both. i think his "true talent level"/ceiling here exceeds that but that is a bad place to start from and also a tough thing for a high level offense to accomodate.
as for the threes - that's less a complaint than a note. he can really shoot from the perimeter, i'd like to see him do more of it.

another comp i have is a taller/longer chris boucher. less foul prone, better shooter, less motor, i like boucher's defense better.
   535. Harlond Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6106383)
Warriors playing their second road game of the season in New Orleans. Just like the first game, Steph, Klay, Wiggins, and Dray are all out. Evidently Warriors have it in for Pels fans.
   536. asinwreck Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6106386)
The Bulls have been awful, sluggish, and awfully sluggish of late. So of course they are having their best game of the past couple of weeks against the Celtics.

One nice thing about this recent skid is Patrick Williams has picked up his play. The same is true as he faces off against Tatum, and the three main scorers have also contributed tonight.
   537. jmurph Posted: November 22, 2022 at 07:55 AM (#6106419)
The Bulls have been awful, sluggish, and awfully sluggish of late. So of course they are having their best game of the past couple of weeks against the Celtics.

The Celtics have lost 4 games this year, only 2 in regulation, both of those in Chicago. So basically I'm confused by Chicago's record because every time I see them they look great!

(Their other 2 losses are to Cleveland in OT. The Central Division is obviously the best in the league.)
   538. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:45 AM (#6106424)
The Kings have the #1 ORtg in the NBA right now.
   539. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 22, 2022 at 12:40 PM (#6106452)
Light the beam, baby!
   540. spivey Posted: November 22, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6106504)
Seth Partnow joining Dunc'd On. I may actually get a prime membership now. We talked about it a bit. It's wild, but I actually listen to basketball podcasts more than I watch basketball. I probably only get in a game a week though I follow scores/trends/NBA twitter reasonably closely.
   541. tshipman Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:34 PM (#6106523)
Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
Clippers‘ Kawhi Leonard has a right ankle sprain and will miss Wednesday's game vs. Warriors.


Pretty soon it will be a news story if Kawhi actually plays a game.

***

Light the beam, baby!


It's really such a great gimmick.

One thing that just occurred to me is that all these teams playing well has meant that there are a paucity of guys who are available on the trade market. You have the usual suspects (John Collins, Myles Turner), but far fewer guys than in a typical year feel available.
   542. tshipman Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:51 PM (#6106526)
Ken Mauer not having a good day today.
   543. DCA Posted: November 22, 2022 at 09:37 PM (#6106530)
You have the usual suspects (John Collins, Myles Turner),

And Crowder! My newest trade bug (actually two separate deals involving the Cavs).

To PHX: Caris LeVert
To CLE: Jae Crowder, Dario Saric, Alec Burks
To DET: Isaac Okoro, Dylan Windler
   544. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:11 AM (#6106581)
I did little more than lurk there but the apbrmetrics board was a real asset. Here’s a SN article on it…

(I used to called the Sporting News “TSN” but I feel like that’s The Sports Network to me now?)
   545. Harlond Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6106583)
Light the beam, baby!
Kings got to light the beam last night, but looked very Kangz-like doing it. Up 11 with 2:51 left, the Kings surrendered two steals, stepped out of bounds with the ball twice, and threw the ball away at least three other times, including being unable to get the ball inbounds twice, thus turning an 11-point lead into a 4-point lead with 10.3 seconds left. Still pretty safe, you think, but then with 5.3 seconds left, Sabonis fouled Ja on a layup for no reason at all, and Ja converted the 3-point play to make it a 1-point game. With 1.7 seconds (and after Monk made 2 FT), Fox committed an obvious foul on Ja as he took a fadeaway, drifting left 3-pointer where he was going to land out of bounds. It was like watching a high school team.* If the Grizzlies don't miss 11 of 30 free throws, they win the game. The Grizzlies, however, are the only NBA team shooting under 70% at the FTA line as a team, and Ja missed 6 of 15 FT.


*The only Kings players who did not contribute to these shenanigans was Harrison Barnes. He hit all of his free throws and although he had 5 TO for the game, IIRC none of them came in the last 3 minutes.
   546. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 23, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6106656)
Seth Partnow joining Dunc'd On. I may actually get a prime membership now. We talked about it a bit. It's wild, but I actually listen to basketball podcasts more than I watch basketball.
Same here! I listen to NBA pods and I love NBA Twitter -- these guys are the biggest drama queens in sports, and I'm here for it -- but the Lakers have chased me off actually watching games early on. I always end up hooked again before the playoffs, for now, it's just podcasts for me.

Also, AD with 37 and 21, 5 blocks, 5 steals. Lakers lose anyways.
   547. asinwreck Posted: November 24, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6106688)
This Thanksgiving, I am thankful for the Bulls suddenly being able to beat the two best teams in the East. I am also thankful for Coby White somehow looking good on defense against the Bucks.
   548. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:38 AM (#6106994)
Also, AD with 37 and 21, 5 blocks, 5 steals.

Huge week for legendary Lakers big men as Zubac put up 31 points and 29 rebounds in 36 minutes last night before fouling out.
   549. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6106998)
Pretty bleak look at the Bulls here.
   550. DCA Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:11 AM (#6107001)
It's bleaker than that. Not only are the Bulls going nowhere, they aren't going to be able to get anything for their expensive vets as the article posits. Phoenix isn't giving up 3 FRP for DeRozan. They probably aren't giving one. Probably their best move is to enter the Westbrook sweepstakes.
   551. spivey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:23 AM (#6107004)
I agree with that take. The Bulls are reasonably competitive this year, and were last year.

But Vucevic isn't even better than WCJ at this point and they're out a good bit of draft capital. That trade is one of the worst of the last several years. Ball and Williams don't look like you can count on them.

I don't think there's a path for them to do much but tread water until 24-25 when they can maybe add a max guy, then the following year with the cap spike they can add more pieces?

Still, those guys don't hit the market as much as they used to, and if they don't get 1-2 allstar caliber players through FA, I think they'll just keep being this and then LaVine will want to leave.
   552. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:39 AM (#6107005)
LaVine's untradeable without giving up future stuff to trade him, right? Would a contender/pseudo-contender even trade expiring salary for him? Why would a rebuilding team?

Feels like the die is cast in Chicago. No real options other than just watching it play out and tinkering around the margins.
   553. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6107006)
But Vucevic isn't even better than WCJ at this point and they're out a good bit of draft capital. That trade is one of the worst of the last several years.

I think I may have got that one wrong at the time- I remember thinking it was an overpay but not too bad? It has been bad.

Chicago's main path to success is to petition the league to let them play the Celtics every night and go 82-0.
   554. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6107007)
LaVine has just turned into one of these salary cap traps, maybe. He's very good when healthy, probably worth the salary given the structure of the cap, but just not the guy to take you anywhere (somewhat like his running mate DeRozan). You have to get extremely lucky or be extremely shrewd elsewhere with the roster to make it all work.
   555. PJ Martinez Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6107009)
"Salary cap trap" is a useful term. Bradley Beal comes to mind. Speaking of whom, is Chicago's situation really more depressing than Washington's? A low bar, I realize, but I'd rather be in Chicago's shoes.

The Bulls are stuck at the lower end of the middle, which always seemed like the probable course set by the DeRozan and Vucevic trades. Blowing it up maybe only makes sense if someone wows you with a DeRozan offer, which doesn't seem out of the question. Otherwise probably best to ride it out, like 552 suggests, and hope for some good luck here and there.

Edit: Also, the Ringer argument hinges in part on the idea that the Bulls can make a run at a bottom-three record (so they can keep their pick), which seems pretty unlikely to me. There are a handful of *really* bad teams out there. Chicago has basically played like a .500 squad so far.
   556. spivey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6107010)
Washington has more of their own assets. If Beal has a good year you could imagine getting positive value for him, and some of their role players would fetch some slight value. They could pivot into a tanking team with a fair bit of assets pretty quickly. Though maybe they won't, because they should have done that 4 years ago.
   557. DCA Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:25 AM (#6107011)
I don't think LaVine is untradeable. But I think the best play would be to take on bad money + assets in return. Charlotte comes to mind. Anyhow, here's my Bulls tanking plan:

Now:

to LAL: Vucevic, DeRozan
to CHI: Westbrook, 2027 1st

to GSW: Caruso
to CHI: Wiseman, 2028 1st

in December:

to BOS: Drummond, Jones
to CHI: Gallinari, 2023 2nd

in January:

to CHO: LaVine
to CHI: Glenn Houngkin, Kai Jones, 2027 1st, 2029 1st

   558. PJ Martinez Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6107014)
If Beal has a good year you could imagine getting positive value for him

Beal's salary this year and in the four years after this one: $43,279,250; $46,741,590; $50,203,930; $53,666,270; $57,128,610.

He's 29. I don't think you're ever getting positive value for him.

Washington having more of their draft assets is important, of course, though neither team seems totally flush (or totally depleted) in that department.
   559. spivey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6107017)
The last several years has had Westbrook moved for positive value on a supermax (twice), Chris Paul moved for positive value on a supermax, CJ McCollum (who was 30) moved for positive value on a max, Gobert moved for incredible value with a pending supermax.

If you can play at an allstar level (or a level some front offices think is allstar), I think you basically will have positive value to some teams regardless of contract. There just aren't enough allstar guys to go around. That would be true even if they were spread evenly, but several teams have like 2-3 each.

Now the question is if Beal can get back to that. But I think if he has a reasonably healthy season where he's putting up like 27/5/5, then yeah, I think some team would trade at least some assets for him. Especially with the cap rising.
   560. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 28, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6107032)
I'm about as down on the Bulls as you can be, but still think everyone here is falling into the contender or process trope. There's value between those 2 extremes. Vuc is the biggest problem, and yes, that trade was really bad (though part of me still thinks WCJ is just a bad team stat stuffer). They don't have a ton of future value to improve on trades now, but they also can't burn their reputation by tearing everything down so soon again. They still have the stink of a cheap, not star friendly franchise, though DeRozan and Lavine's max are steps in trying to fix that (and trading one or both now would just wipe it all away).

I also realize I'm a Bulls homer, but every single one of those proposed trades in 557 are absolute bullshit and the Bulls would immediately hang up on all of them (well, the Boston one is basically meaningless, but still feels light for 2 guys who can be rotation pieces). The Lakers one is especially terrible - Vuc is expiring, just like Westbrook, but DeRozan is still a good player on a decent contract that has plenty of positive value.

Personally, I think Lavine has started to look a lot healthier lately than the start of the year, Williams is flashing usefulness a lot more frequently (but still not enough to really inflate his value), and the rotations are adjusting in way that makes more sense to the current roster. That, plus the various luck components pointed out in the Ringer article starting to go less against them, and I don't see why they can't hover around .500 for the next month or two until hopefully Ball can come back. If they already know he can't, then yeah, I think they should consider getting a jump on remaking the roster. Otherwise, their best long term play is to keep the course and hope for the best. Of course, that best doesn't really include contention, but you keep some star type players and pray you get other guys that want to come (and force their way) here.
   561. tshipman Posted: November 28, 2022 at 01:49 PM (#6107040)
to GSW: Caruso
to CHI: Wiseman, 2028 1st


I do wonder if Caruso is available. He immediately improves every contender. I think the fact that the Warriors would so quickly do that deal indicates that it isn't enough because literally every other contender would be in on that. Just go down the list, he fits the Bucks, fits the Celtics, fits the Warriors, fits the Heat, etc. etc. etc.

If Beal has a good year you could imagine getting positive value for him


Beal, famously, has a no trade clause, so I don't think there's that much value there, if any. At least in part because Beal can basically set the terms for his trade and he would not want a team trading for him to give up a ton of assets. I think, for instance, that a trade for Westbrook would actually probably involve *zero* first round picks. Maybe that's crazy, my valuations have been off a lot before.
   562. DCA Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6107052)
I think the fact that the Warriors would so quickly do that deal indicates that it isn't enough because literally every other contender would be in on that.

Every contender would want Caruso, but I'm not sure every contender would want to give up the matching salary. Warriors are a good fit because Wiseman is a 1-for-1 salary offset and a good fit for a team that wants to lose now, with upside later.

Bucks, for example, would have to give up a rotation player to add Caruso. It's not clear that replacing Allen or Portis with Caruso would make them better, and why would the Bulls want Jingles + George Hill?

The Celtics could give Gallinari + a scrub, Miami could do Oladipo, but neither seems remotely interesting to the Bulls in tank mode.
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