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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and their fathers are all the District Attorney.

Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2022 at 10:09 PM | 796 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: basketball, best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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501. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 15, 2022 at 04:19 PM (#6105661)

Flippant, but.

502. Spivey Posted: November 15, 2022 at 09:38 PM (#6105715)

I love Jose Alvarado.

503. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 15, 2022 at 11:49 PM (#6105733)

Sacramento is 3pt variancing the daylights out of the Nets by 35 right now.

504. KronicFatigue Posted: November 16, 2022 at 08:24 AM (#6105739)

Golden State's main competitive advantage was they locked up Curry's prime with a significantly under value contract due to his injury history.

Is it also undervalued because he literally changed the game and his skillset is now the most coveted in the league? Even if he was fully healthy, the NBA wouldn't have known that Curry was the most valuable asset until Curry came around? Or if he was healthy, he would have gotten whatever the CBA allowed at the time, regardless?

505. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: November 16, 2022 at 12:42 PM (#6105771)

StatMuse @statmuse
Ben Simmons first 10-point game in over 500 days:

11 PTS
5-7 FG

The Nets lost by 32.

506. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: November 16, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6105772)

today, in 57i66135 might actually know what he's talking about:

2. I'm selling hard the idea that Portland is a contender in the West. Their only win was against an Israeli team when they hit 52% on their 3s. Against actual NBA teams, they were 0-4 and gave up 120 per game.

Who are you selling this to?!? I don't think there are any buyers out there.

Well, Portland seems to think that, based on their actions this offseason.

More credibly, Vegas has them 10th in the West, and I think that based on their preseason, they may be among the very worst teams in the league.

I think it's reasonable based on the roster to think of Portland as roughly a 40 win team. That's where I was as well. However, their preseason results have been so bad that I now think they are worse than that.

538. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: October 15, 2022 at 10:45 AM (#6100855)
putting aside lillard and nurkic for a moment...

jerami grant, justice winslow, nassir little and josh hart are the kind of versatile, multi-faceted swiss-army knives that modern teams are supposed to build around. despite the organization overall being an absolute shitshow, their roster isn't. their core isn't old and beat up; nor is it young and woefully inexperienced; they have a lot of players at peak/prime age, and teams that are built with that kind of core don't usually fall on their face. oh yeah, and unlike most of the teams that are stuck in the bottom-mid tier, they have a legit star PG who can singlehandedly win games for them.

basically, i'm not buying them as being one of the 5 worst teams in the NBA. especially not when those teams that are legitimately bad will be tanking their asses off from day 1 of the season.

507. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:22 PM (#6105883)

manute bol played 624 career regular season games and never scored more than 18 in a game. tonight, his kid (who looked like he could wash out of the league a few months ago) scored 26. surprisingly, he also bested his dad's career high for drb in a game earlier this year when he had 15. (not that that was manute's strength)

508. Spivey Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:46 PM (#6105887)

Bol Bol is incredibly intriguing. I think he's a better player and a better "contract" than Jalen Suggs.

Milwaukee playing like crap right now with 50% of their rotation minutes out, but they pulled out a win tonight. Jevon Carter getting to show out a bit, which I think is valuable for long-term things. Same with Beauchamp and Nwora getting minutes they probably don't deserve.

509. bob gee Posted: November 17, 2022 at 07:48 AM (#6105897)

I've seen some games of Bol this year where he'll dribble around multiple players half/full court and get a bank shot in. I've also seen some times where he looks lost on defense, but also times where his presence influences the shot.

However - his positive play this year mirrors Youtube highlights (which was almost all I saw before this year).

My question - what happened in Denver where he got almost no run, and then how Orlando became a place of last resort?

510. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:48 AM (#6105899)

i should defer to denver fans but --
bol's motor was worse there (still needs work), they misused him (he's clearly a forward, not a center), he struggled to stay healthy, teammates didn't seem to trust him.

reading his metrics, he looks like a roughly average defender (and average player) right now, but one that might be very matchup dependent? post protection isn't great and teams will go at him, but he will block a ton of shots. pretty mobile, has no issue staying with fours (and some threes), and his defensive ft travelled #s are really high. doesn't play passing lanes at all, will disrupt jump shots.
i kind of don't know how to evaluate him as a playmaker. his a/to numbers stink, but metrics like "potential assists" are a lot kinder and scouting reports far less bearish on that part of his game.
i wish he shot more threes and more in general. i think there's some similarities between him and christian wood. similarly, he could be a good stats on a bad team guy, which i think is a little overdone as a concept but not not a thing. banchero coming back could hurt him.

pretty good for roughly 2m a year.

511. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:13 AM (#6105901)

jevon carter is so fun.

i'm incredibly busy of late and only get to digest games in chunks here and there (and have had almost no time to also watch baseball in months) but suggs looks a lot better than he did last year. the numbers are also improved, but to replacement level versus real real bad. i think he'll be a legit nba player still, but certainly not up to the hype.

512. Spivey Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:14 AM (#6105902)

Dunno if he'd get it but I think Brook Lopez has a very valid DPOY candidacy early into the season. These things I feel are very narrativey, and he is leading the league in blocks.

Der K: You've seen Bol play more than I have I'm sure. But he's a young guy without many minutes in this league and has shown a lot of skills you can't teach. It's way too early for me to want to nitpick the lack of 3s, say he's an empty stats guy, etc. He's putting up a .722 TS% on a pretty interesting diet of shots (only 52% of his 2s are assisted). I think every team would love to have him.

Golden State: Now 0-8 on the road. Moody/Wiseman/Kuminga playing very little minutes, so you can no longer say "Well if they trim the minutes, they'll be fine". They seem very small and unathletic. If anything, this poor season makes me more impressed with last year than disappointed with this year.

513. It's Spelled With a CFBF, But Not Where You Think Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:51 AM (#6105907)

manute bol played 624 career regular season games and never scored more than 18 in a game. tonight, his kid (who looked like he could wash out of the league a few months ago) scored 26. surprisingly, he also bested his dad's career high for drb in a game earlier this year when he had 15. (not that that was manute's strength)

But when does Bol Bol hit six three pointers in a half?

514. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 10:25 AM (#6105910)

I don't know how realistic this is, but it really seems like the Warriors should roll up all the young players, including Poole, throw in some draft picks, and get the best player available for trade that they can. Steph is too good. Give him and Thompson and Green one more shot at it, even if the latter two have fallen off. Ride this out a couple more years before the inevitable rebuilding begins. It may be a somewhat risky play, but it strikes me as the best one to make.

515. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:14 AM (#6105915)

I don't know how realistic this is, but it really seems like the Warriors should roll up all the young players, including Poole, throw in some draft picks, and get the best player available for trade that they can. Steph is too good. Give him and Thompson and Green one more shot at it, even if the latter two have fallen off. Ride this out a couple more years before the inevitable rebuilding begins. It may be a somewhat risky play, but it strikes me as the best one to make.

Kevin Durant, come on down.

516. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6105918)

Durant, Anthony Davis, whoever they can get.

517. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6105919)

Golden State: Now 0-8 on the road. Moody/Wiseman/Kuminga playing very little minutes, so you can no longer say "Well if they trim the minutes, they'll be fine". They seem very small and unathletic. If anything, this poor season makes me more impressed with last year than disappointed with this year.

They need to play better, but GS's performance on the road is largely variance driven. On the road, teams have shot 40% from 3, while in Chase Center, teams have shot 30.3%.

The big thing for them this year compared to last year is the rebounding. Last year they were the #2 rebounding team, this year they are 25th. Rebounding normalizes very early, so this level of performance is concerning.

518. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 17, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6105930)

Man, the Pelicans are a fun team to watch. That Grizz/Pels game the other night was awesome, I'd love to see them in a playoff series. Even when the Pels are blowing out your team (like they did last night to the Bulls), they're just a goddman joy. Trey Murphy looked amazing last night, shooting from Curry distance and dunking all over guys.

As fans, we really deserve to watch a fully healthy Pels team in the playoffs.

519. DCA Posted: November 17, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6105941)

#514 -

I get the idea, but I just don't think it works. Poole's got the poison pill contract, he's basically impossible to move until next year, except to Spurs and Pacers who have open cap space.

Even then, I don't think Curry + Dray + Wiggins + Klay's corpse + one more guy + waiver wive bench mob is good enough. Better to hope that Poole gets back to what he was last year, Klay improves to not terrible, and one of the young guys takes a step forward - not a great trifecta bet, but I think it's more upside and more likely than breaking the bank, and doesn't hamstring the future.

520. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 17, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6105943)

The real problem is that Klay has looked cooked, no?

521. Spivey Posted: November 17, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6105975)

Klay was cooked last year and they won the title. But yes, that is a problem. Jordan Poole averaging 1.8 rebounds a game is also a problem. Basically everything is much worse than last year besides Curry.

I feel like Memphis and the Pelicans are the best teams in the West. But I don't think you can pick the Pels to come out of the west, because experience matters. But I guess the Grizzlies are my pick?

I think I'd rather see them both play "old guard" teams than each other.

522. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 17, 2022 at 06:36 PM (#6105976)

This must be the worst year for the West since maybe the Heatles. I would favor Milwaukee and Boston almost 2-1 over any team in the West.

523. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 07:21 PM (#6105980)

Phoenix has the best net rating in the West so far, FWIW, which is maybe not very much (I have no idea to what extent luck and variance have played a role in that, and haven't watched them much at all). Memphis's net rating to this point (again, FWIW) is not great — they're below the Kings and the Wolves, among various less surprising teams. I'm sticking with my Denver prediction, if only out of stubbornness. Agree that the West in general is underwhelming so far.

524. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:58 PM (#6105997)

Boston has the best SRS in the league at 7.02. This seems crazy low for 15 games in when you'd expect variance from small sample size. In fact, by my napkin math, if all teams in the league were inherently .500 teams you'd expect one team to have a +7 SRS by random luck. I don't think that but point being, this is a lot of parity.

525. PJ Martinez Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:14 PM (#6105999)

David Locke made that point on Twitter the other day, using (I think) raw point differential, and comparing this season so far to the same point in the last seven or so seasons. In almost all the other seasons, there was at least one team in double digits. (And, usually, that season's champion was already near the top in point differential, perhaps unsurprisingly.)

526. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6106044)

Good to see Kawhi got some minutes in against a G-League opponent last night.

527. bob gee Posted: November 18, 2022 at 08:58 AM (#6106045)

Thanks for the thoughts on Bol. He hasn't impressed me (eye test) with his passing, but when you have someone that tall who can handle the ball OK and shoot 3s and alter shot selection, I would have expected him to get many more opportunities than he had.

Simmons had his first game where from start to finish he seemed engaged. Ball zipped off his hands on many passes, pushed the pace. At the start of the season, he would bring the ball up slow and be looking to hand the ball off, and seemed to be staying out of the action. One thing he is still doing - when he sets a pick, most times, he doesn't pop (for obvious reasons). But he also doesn't really roll. It's either pick-and-stand there, or pick and move slowly. I'm hoping that changes.

He also played excellent defense on Dame and Nurkic. Prior to this, his defense was often stand near the person with the ball, but tonight (and a little last game) he was up tight, fighting around screens, etc.

528. Spivey Posted: November 18, 2022 at 01:53 PM (#6106078)

If Basketball Twitter is going to die, I welcome them here to this highly stable and prosperous website!

529. smileyy Posted: November 18, 2022 at 03:33 PM (#6106102)

Wait till Jim lays off 50% of the moderators and directs developers to work 80 hour weeks.

530. PJ Martinez Posted: November 19, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6106153)

Giannis's free throw shooting last night was... not good. Possibly cost them the game? (And then this happened afterward.)

531. PJ Martinez Posted: November 19, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6106157)

More context on the Giannis-Harrell kerfuffle.

532. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 19, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6106185)

The whole Giannis thing is confusing and seems to be rooted in hierarchy, unspoken rules and misunderstandings.

1. Giannis shot terribly at the line and did the whole thing where he was going to stay late to work on his FT shooting. Kobe sort of popularized this demonstrative self-flagellation, but it's been around for ages. It's kind of hokey, IMO, but fans like it. Not common, but not uncommon.
2. The 76ers had a fan event after the game where fans were going to be on court. This process seems to involve multiple steps to keep the court, players and fans safe.
3. Harrell *also* wanted to get some shots up after the game. I gather than the unspoken rule is that you get priority to work on your own home court.
4. Giannis's position seems to be that his desire to get shots up is normal, and basically his prerogative as an NBA star.
5. The 76ers seem to feel like while they normally might accommodate, this was more inconvenient than usual to the arena staff. (and that Giannis in particular was being kind of a dick about moving the ladder and not being patient).
6. Since there was only going to be one side of the court available for shooting, Harrell seemed to feel like he should have priority over Giannis and stepped in/escalated the issue.

Basically the boring answer in my opinion is that everyone is at fault.

533. Hombre Brotani

Posted: November 19, 2022 at 04:11 PM (#6106187)

If Basketball Twitter is going to die, I welcome them here to this highly stable and prosperous website!

"I estimate there are maybe 10-12 million Primates left on this site...."

534. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 20, 2022 at 06:52 PM (#6106260)

spivey - make no mistake, i'd love to have bol on my team. been a long time fan (even stupidly drafted him in the lottery on this site!!). by bad stats good team i'm thinking things more like...
he'll get rebounds because he's quick and super long, but he doesn't box out people so his delta on team rebounding is iffier.
the defense is interesting, but i see tacticians being able to put him in bad situations in, say, the postseason.
dunks and threes has bol as at the 4th percentile for assist percentage and 16th for turnovers. it is difficult to be that low in both. i think his "true talent level"/ceiling here exceeds that but that is a bad place to start from and also a tough thing for a high level offense to accomodate.
as for the threes - that's less a complaint than a note. he can really shoot from the perimeter, i'd like to see him do more of it.

another comp i have is a taller/longer chris boucher. less foul prone, better shooter, less motor, i like boucher's defense better.

535. Harlond Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6106383)

Warriors playing their second road game of the season in New Orleans. Just like the first game, Steph, Klay, Wiggins, and Dray are all out. Evidently Warriors have it in for Pels fans.

536. asinwreck Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6106386)

The Bulls have been awful, sluggish, and awfully sluggish of late. So of course they are having their best game of the past couple of weeks against the Celtics.

One nice thing about this recent skid is Patrick Williams has picked up his play. The same is true as he faces off against Tatum, and the three main scorers have also contributed tonight.

537. jmurph Posted: November 22, 2022 at 07:55 AM (#6106419)

The Bulls have been awful, sluggish, and awfully sluggish of late. So of course they are having their best game of the past couple of weeks against the Celtics.

The Celtics have lost 4 games this year, only 2 in regulation, both of those in Chicago. So basically I'm confused by Chicago's record because every time I see them they look great!

(Their other 2 losses are to Cleveland in OT. The Central Division is obviously the best in the league.)

538. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:45 AM (#6106424)

The Kings have the #1 ORtg in the NBA right now.

539. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 22, 2022 at 12:40 PM (#6106452)

Light the beam, baby!

540. Spivey Posted: November 22, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6106504)

Seth Partnow joining Dunc'd On. I may actually get a prime membership now. We talked about it a bit. It's wild, but I actually listen to basketball podcasts more than I watch basketball. I probably only get in a game a week though I follow scores/trends/NBA twitter reasonably closely.

541. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:34 PM (#6106523)

Shams Charania
@ShamsCharania
Clippers‘ Kawhi Leonard has a right ankle sprain and will miss Wednesday's game vs. Warriors.

Pretty soon it will be a news story if Kawhi actually plays a game.

***

Light the beam, baby!

It's really such a great gimmick.

One thing that just occurred to me is that all these teams playing well has meant that there are a paucity of guys who are available on the trade market. You have the usual suspects (John Collins, Myles Turner), but far fewer guys than in a typical year feel available.

542. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:51 PM (#6106526)

Ken Mauer not having a good day today.

543. DCA Posted: November 22, 2022 at 09:37 PM (#6106530)

You have the usual suspects (John Collins, Myles Turner),

And Crowder! My newest trade bug (actually two separate deals involving the Cavs).

To PHX: Caris LeVert
To CLE: Jae Crowder, Dario Saric, Alec Burks
To DET: Isaac Okoro, Dylan Windler

544. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:11 AM (#6106581)

I did little more than lurk there but the apbrmetrics board was a real asset. Here’s a SN article on it…

(I used to called the Sporting News “TSN” but I feel like that’s The Sports Network to me now?)

545. Harlond Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6106583)

Light the beam, baby!

Kings got to light the beam last night, but looked very Kangz-like doing it. Up 11 with 2:51 left, the Kings surrendered two steals, stepped out of bounds with the ball twice, and threw the ball away at least three other times, including being unable to get the ball inbounds twice, thus turning an 11-point lead into a 4-point lead with 10.3 seconds left. Still pretty safe, you think, but then with 5.3 seconds left, Sabonis fouled Ja on a layup for no reason at all, and Ja converted the 3-point play to make it a 1-point game. With 1.7 seconds (and after Monk made 2 FT), Fox committed an obvious foul on Ja as he took a fadeaway, drifting left 3-pointer where he was going to land out of bounds. It was like watching a high school team.* If the Grizzlies don't miss 11 of 30 free throws, they win the game. The Grizzlies, however, are the only NBA team shooting under 70% at the FTA line as a team, and Ja missed 6 of 15 FT.

*The only Kings players who did not contribute to these shenanigans was Harrison Barnes. He hit all of his free throws and although he had 5 TO for the game, IIRC none of them came in the last 3 minutes.

546. Hombre Brotani

Posted: November 23, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6106656)

Seth Partnow joining Dunc'd On. I may actually get a prime membership now. We talked about it a bit. It's wild, but I actually listen to basketball podcasts more than I watch basketball.

Same here! I listen to NBA pods and I love NBA Twitter -- these guys are the biggest drama queens in sports, and I'm here for it -- but the Lakers have chased me off actually watching games early on. I always end up hooked again before the playoffs, for now, it's just podcasts for me.

Also, AD with 37 and 21, 5 blocks, 5 steals. Lakers lose anyways.

547. asinwreck Posted: November 24, 2022 at 08:49 AM (#6106688)

This Thanksgiving, I am thankful for the Bulls suddenly being able to beat the two best teams in the East. I am also thankful for Coby White somehow looking good on defense against the Bucks.

548. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:38 AM (#6106994)

Also, AD with 37 and 21, 5 blocks, 5 steals.

Huge week for legendary Lakers big men as Zubac put up 31 points and 29 rebounds in 36 minutes last night before fouling out.

549. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6106998)

Pretty bleak look at the Bulls here.

550. DCA Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:11 AM (#6107001)

It's bleaker than that. Not only are the Bulls going nowhere, they aren't going to be able to get anything for their expensive vets as the article posits. Phoenix isn't giving up 3 FRP for DeRozan. They probably aren't giving one. Probably their best move is to enter the Westbrook sweepstakes.

551. Spivey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:23 AM (#6107004)

I agree with that take. The Bulls are reasonably competitive this year, and were last year.

But Vucevic isn't even better than WCJ at this point and they're out a good bit of draft capital. That trade is one of the worst of the last several years. Ball and Williams don't look like you can count on them.

I don't think there's a path for them to do much but tread water until 24-25 when they can maybe add a max guy, then the following year with the cap spike they can add more pieces?

Still, those guys don't hit the market as much as they used to, and if they don't get 1-2 allstar caliber players through FA, I think they'll just keep being this and then LaVine will want to leave.

552. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:39 AM (#6107005)

LaVine's untradeable without giving up future stuff to trade him, right? Would a contender/pseudo-contender even trade expiring salary for him? Why would a rebuilding team?

Feels like the die is cast in Chicago. No real options other than just watching it play out and tinkering around the margins.

553. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6107006)

But Vucevic isn't even better than WCJ at this point and they're out a good bit of draft capital. That trade is one of the worst of the last several years.

I think I may have got that one wrong at the time- I remember thinking it was an overpay but not too bad? It has been bad.

Chicago's main path to success is to petition the league to let them play the Celtics every night and go 82-0.

554. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6107007)

LaVine has just turned into one of these salary cap traps, maybe. He's very good when healthy, probably worth the salary given the structure of the cap, but just not the guy to take you anywhere (somewhat like his running mate DeRozan). You have to get extremely lucky or be extremely shrewd elsewhere with the roster to make it all work.

555. PJ Martinez Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6107009)

"Salary cap trap" is a useful term. Bradley Beal comes to mind. Speaking of whom, is Chicago's situation really more depressing than Washington's? A low bar, I realize, but I'd rather be in Chicago's shoes.

The Bulls are stuck at the lower end of the middle, which always seemed like the probable course set by the DeRozan and Vucevic trades. Blowing it up maybe only makes sense if someone wows you with a DeRozan offer, which doesn't seem out of the question. Otherwise probably best to ride it out, like 552 suggests, and hope for some good luck here and there.

Edit: Also, the Ringer argument hinges in part on the idea that the Bulls can make a run at a bottom-three record (so they can keep their pick), which seems pretty unlikely to me. There are a handful of *really* bad teams out there. Chicago has basically played like a .500 squad so far.

556. Spivey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6107010)

Washington has more of their own assets. If Beal has a good year you could imagine getting positive value for him, and some of their role players would fetch some slight value. They could pivot into a tanking team with a fair bit of assets pretty quickly. Though maybe they won't, because they should have done that 4 years ago.

557. DCA Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:25 AM (#6107011)

I don't think LaVine is untradeable. But I think the best play would be to take on bad money + assets in return. Charlotte comes to mind. Anyhow, here's my Bulls tanking plan:

Now:

to LAL: Vucevic, DeRozan
to CHI: Westbrook, 2027 1st

to GSW: Caruso
to CHI: Wiseman, 2028 1st

in December:

to BOS: Drummond, Jones
to CHI: Gallinari, 2023 2nd

in January:

to CHO: LaVine
to CHI: Glenn Houngkin, Kai Jones, 2027 1st, 2029 1st

558. PJ Martinez Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6107014)

If Beal has a good year you could imagine getting positive value for him

Beal's salary this year and in the four years after this one: $43,279,250; $46,741,590; $50,203,930; $53,666,270; $57,128,610.

He's 29. I don't think you're ever getting positive value for him.

Washington having more of their draft assets is important, of course, though neither team seems totally flush (or totally depleted) in that department.

559. Spivey Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6107017)

The last several years has had Westbrook moved for positive value on a supermax (twice), Chris Paul moved for positive value on a supermax, CJ McCollum (who was 30) moved for positive value on a max, Gobert moved for incredible value with a pending supermax.

If you can play at an allstar level (or a level some front offices think is allstar), I think you basically will have positive value to some teams regardless of contract. There just aren't enough allstar guys to go around. That would be true even if they were spread evenly, but several teams have like 2-3 each.

Now the question is if Beal can get back to that. But I think if he has a reasonably healthy season where he's putting up like 27/5/5, then yeah, I think some team would trade at least some assets for him. Especially with the cap rising.

560. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 28, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6107032)

I'm about as down on the Bulls as you can be, but still think everyone here is falling into the contender or process trope. There's value between those 2 extremes. Vuc is the biggest problem, and yes, that trade was really bad (though part of me still thinks WCJ is just a bad team stat stuffer). They don't have a ton of future value to improve on trades now, but they also can't burn their reputation by tearing everything down so soon again. They still have the stink of a cheap, not star friendly franchise, though DeRozan and Lavine's max are steps in trying to fix that (and trading one or both now would just wipe it all away).

I also realize I'm a Bulls homer, but every single one of those proposed trades in 557 are absolute bullshit and the Bulls would immediately hang up on all of them (well, the Boston one is basically meaningless, but still feels light for 2 guys who can be rotation pieces). The Lakers one is especially terrible - Vuc is expiring, just like Westbrook, but DeRozan is still a good player on a decent contract that has plenty of positive value.

Personally, I think Lavine has started to look a lot healthier lately than the start of the year, Williams is flashing usefulness a lot more frequently (but still not enough to really inflate his value), and the rotations are adjusting in way that makes more sense to the current roster. That, plus the various luck components pointed out in the Ringer article starting to go less against them, and I don't see why they can't hover around .500 for the next month or two until hopefully Ball can come back. If they already know he can't, then yeah, I think they should consider getting a jump on remaking the roster. Otherwise, their best long term play is to keep the course and hope for the best. Of course, that best doesn't really include contention, but you keep some star type players and pray you get other guys that want to come (and force their way) here.

561. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 28, 2022 at 01:49 PM (#6107040)

to GSW: Caruso
to CHI: Wiseman, 2028 1st

I do wonder if Caruso is available. He immediately improves every contender. I think the fact that the Warriors would so quickly do that deal indicates that it isn't enough because literally every other contender would be in on that. Just go down the list, he fits the Bucks, fits the Celtics, fits the Warriors, fits the Heat, etc. etc. etc.

If Beal has a good year you could imagine getting positive value for him

Beal, famously, has a no trade clause, so I don't think there's that much value there, if any. At least in part because Beal can basically set the terms for his trade and he would not want a team trading for him to give up a ton of assets. I think, for instance, that a trade for Westbrook would actually probably involve *zero* first round picks. Maybe that's crazy, my valuations have been off a lot before.

562. DCA Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6107052)

I think the fact that the Warriors would so quickly do that deal indicates that it isn't enough because literally every other contender would be in on that.

Every contender would want Caruso, but I'm not sure every contender would want to give up the matching salary. Warriors are a good fit because Wiseman is a 1-for-1 salary offset and a good fit for a team that wants to lose now, with upside later, and can give him minutes.

Bucks, for example, would have to give up a rotation player to add Caruso. It's not clear that replacing Allen or Portis with Caruso would make them better, and why would the Bulls want Jingles + George Hill?

The Celtics could give Gallinari + a scrub, Miami could do Oladipo, but neither seems remotely interesting to the Bulls in tank mode.

563. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 28, 2022 at 03:20 PM (#6107062)

kemba looked awful last year but it makes sense to me that dallas is taking a flier on him

564. Moeball Posted: November 28, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6107081)

Warriors beat Minnesota on the road. It's the first GS win against a decently competitive team on the road this season. Although Wovles fans here may have downgraded that assertion given preseason expectations. We'll see if GS has turned the corner or not, they're in Dallas on Tuesday. I still have doubts about the bench although it has been restructured some. I think Kerr is really going to have to earn his salary this year in figuring out how to make this mix work. Was surprised Minnesota was badly outrebounded at home, is this really a problem this year even after getting Gobert?

565. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 28, 2022 at 06:30 PM (#6107086)

Was surprised Minnesota was badly outrebounded at home, is this really a problem this year even after getting Gobert?

Weirdly the team (Non-Gobert division) has decided that since they have Gobert around they don't have to actually rebound. Or box out. Or do anything really.*

To be generous they are still figuring out how to play with Gobert. To be mean they are the most self-entitled team imaginable, who treat every success as a fanfare that they have arrived! (And so no more needs to be done today, and probably not tomorrow either).

So much talent, so little self-awareness. It is astonishing. I hope they wake up at some point.

* Part of the problem is they are so terrible at transition defense that in desperation the coaching staff is having them sell out on transition defense and thus sacrificing offensive rebounds.

566. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:15 PM (#6107091)

It is awful.

567. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:12 PM (#6107100)

They're getting played off the floor by Les Boulet.

568. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:18 PM (#6107102)

The Celtics have put up a cool 121 through three quarters in Charlotte. They've been shooting the #### out of the ball, as Jaylen Brown had it yesterday, but the ball movement has also been tremendous. Pretty much every player in their rotation is a good shooter and a willing passer, even guys like Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet, and they've been really disciplined in hunting good shots. The shooting will come back down to earth some, but everyone shooting well is a good shooter and the ball movement seems like it'll be durable.

569. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:38 PM (#6107105)

I'm sorry, Toronto Raptors play-by-play guy, Fred VanVleet is only the second greatest thing to come out of Rockford, Illinois.

570. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:40 PM (#6107106)

everyone shooting well is a good shooter

Al Horford: 48.7%, career 36.5%
Derrick White: 43.9%, career 34.7%
Malcolm Brogdon: 44.3%, career 37.9%

I mean, not really.

So much talent, so little self-awareness. It is astonishing. I hope they wake up at some point.

While I don't think that the Wolves overflow with self-awareness, I don't think that's the issue. You have two guys who can only play Center who are trying to play at the same time. This was an issue that was easy to see in advance.

While you could kind of squint and see how it might be different, the core problem is that Gobert and KAT cannot really co-exist on the court on offense or on defense.

571. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 28, 2022 at 09:54 PM (#6107107)

I mean, not really.

Sure, but White and Horford are doing it on a diet of good looks on sub-career usage, and Brogdon is at ~career usage rates playing a lot against bench units. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect them to have a shot at decent-for-them numbers, and none of those are crazy. Brown and Tatum are below their career rates from three, too, so it's not like everyone is going to regress to the mean.

572. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6107108)

While I don't think that the Wolves overflow with self-awareness, I don't think that's the issue. You have two guys who can only play Center who are trying to play at the same time. This was an issue that was easy to see in advance.

All due respect, but that explains like maybe 5% of the Wolves' problems.

573. PJ Martinez Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6107110)

I'd say the three-point percentages from White and Horford are a little crazy — they're both about six or seven points higher than they've ever shot for a full season. I'm not sure Hauser can shoot ~49% for a whole season, either (though he *is* a very good shooter). They'll all come down a bit. Tatum, who takes more threes than White and Horford combined, may start hitting a few more. Brown, too.

But the question about Boston's offense this year is like the old Stephen Colbert bit: great offense, or *greatest* offense? It's currently the latter; it may end up as merely the former. The hope as a Celtics fan is that Rob Williams helps the defense improve enough to pick up the slack.

574. Russlan is not Russian Posted: November 29, 2022 at 01:03 AM (#6107119)

The Lakers blow a game in which they had a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter on a buzzer beater. Horrible loss and it kills some momentum they had. They looked like a team that might be good at points in this game but this is a horrible, horrible loss against the Pacers. Like, I know they had won some games against bad teams but they actually looked good for some of this game. Total gut punch game to watch.

575. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 29, 2022 at 09:06 AM (#6107127)

All Star Rosters as of today if we picked rosters entirely by dunksandthrees.com EPM Wins. Which we don't, and shouldn't, but anyway:

East - Durant, Tatum, Mitchell, Haliburton, Giannis, Anunoby, Porzingis, Trae, Lopez, DeRozan, Embiid, Nic Claxton (?)

West - Curry, Luka, Shai, Jokic, Booker, Markkanen, Davis, Morant, George, Fox, Sabonis, Jerami Grant

All Star Rosters as of today if we picked rosters entirely by dunksandthrees.com EPM Wins and excluded all former All Stars. Which I just thought would be a fun thing to look at:

East - Haliburton, Anunoby, Claxton, Kuzma, Derrick White, Brunson, Franz, Oubre, Tobias Harris, Smart, Jevon Carter, Hield

West - Shai, Markkanen, Fox, Grant, Bridges, Olynyk, Clarkson, Simons, Dinwiddie, Bane, Dillon Brooks, Zubac

576. Spivey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 09:17 AM (#6107128)

Anunoby's season got me thinking. Toronto is in a very interesting spot. Basically their entire roster is a FA after this year or next (there's a lot of player options that will get turned down).

They're good enough you want to keep the ride going, and I guess with the spike you do, and hope you still have financial flexibility - but FVV, Siakam, and OG are all going to want maxes, or near maxes. Trent will want 20/per. They could get pretty expensive (and already are around 150 mil this year, with Siakam and Trent already getting around what they'll continue to get)

577. jmurph Posted: November 29, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6107129)

Toronto does seem perfectly positioned for one of these consolidation trades that people like to talk about on the internet but don't seem to happen very often in real life. There's the contract/salary stuff and also the fact that their entire roster seems like it's 6'9 or above (other than FVV), which is good but also a bit redundant.

All Star Rosters as of today if we picked rosters entirely by dunksandthrees.com EPM Wins. Which we don't, and shouldn't, but anyway:

East - Durant, Tatum, Mitchell, Haliburton, Giannis, Anunoby, Porzingis, Trae, Lopez, DeRozan, Embiid, Nic Claxton (?)

I've, to put it mildly, never been a Porzingis fan, but I think it's cool he's been playing well since joining the Wiz.

578. DCA Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:52 AM (#6107153)

Toronto does seem perfectly positioned for one of these consolidation trades that people like to talk about on the internet but don't seem to happen very often in real life.

Who - other than maybe Durant - is available and good enough for Toronto to consolidate into?

I can see them wanting to aggregate Trent and some salary (Flynn, Precious, Birch) into an upgrade, but that doesn't seem likely to land a difference-maker.

579. DCA Posted: November 29, 2022 at 12:06 PM (#6107157)

Maybe SGA if he's available? OKC doesn't seem close to putting a functional team around him. Trent + Barnes is enough salary to match.

580. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 29, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6107161)

if i run okc, i keep sga for now -- he seems to have bought into being there, getting stars is the hard part of what they're doing, and they have plenty of commodities they can flip to build in the image that they want.

if i'm toronto, i likely go after durant, depending on price.

581. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 29, 2022 at 12:45 PM (#6107162)

I think Shai is the dream up here, but that might be more "He's a Canadian!" than anything else. He would be a great fit, though.

582. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 29, 2022 at 12:59 PM (#6107166)

I'm with Der-K, SGA is 24, locked up until 2027, and seems content in OKC. Given how many other assets they have, I don't see any reason they would want to move on from him instead of building around him.

Durant would be a slam dunk consolidation for Toronto; outside of him who is good enough to be worth their while and likely to be available? As I think others have mentioned, one side effect of the odd amount of parity in the NBA this season is that there aren't likely to be as many players available for trade as usual.

583. Spivey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6107220)

SGA is prolly gonna make all-NBA this year if he stays healthy and they don't shut him down. If they trade him to just move their timeline out another 5 years, they should lose the team. I think it can be valuable to have your core at slightly different age groups anyways. He's going to be able to lead/mentor the younger guys.

584. If on a winter's night a father of a newborn baby Posted: November 29, 2022 at 05:43 PM (#6107250)

I mean, they should have lost the team as soon as they announced plans to move it out of Seattle.

It does feel like it's flying under the radar just how outrageously good SGA has been so far. Stats cherry-picked for drama: here in his fifth season, SGA has averaged a USG% of 33.1 and a TS% of 61.3. In '88-'89, his fifth season, Michael Jordan had a USG% of 32.1 and a TS% of 61.4.

585. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: November 29, 2022 at 09:44 PM (#6107274)

It does feel like it's flying under the radar just how outrageously good SGA has been so far. Stats cherry-picked for drama: here in his fifth season, SGA has averaged a USG% of 33.1 and a TS% of 61.3. In '88-'89, his fifth season, Michael Jordan had a USG% of 32.1 and a TS% of 61.4.

Not contradicting your point, more of a side point, but the changes in offensive environment are making it harder and harder to compare back in time. MJ's career average TS% is lower than Steph's worst year after his rookie year.

586. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 30, 2022 at 12:54 AM (#6107290)

Zach Lowe had Brian Scalabrine, now the Celtics color guy, on his latest Lowe Post to talk about the Celtics offense. A good rundown of just why it's working so well and how it might go over the rest of the season, with some discussion of how Rob Williams' return will change things.

587. Spivey Posted: November 30, 2022 at 09:17 AM (#6107295)

Scalabrine is a clown.

Etan Thomas: "I listen to Frank Isola & Brian Scalabrine on Sirius XM NBA Radio in the mornings when I drive my kids to school. And for the last three days I’ve been listening to Scalabrine discount, deflect, defend and excuse Sarver and his actions. He’s used whataboutisms (asking if LeBron would get kicked out of the league for similar conducts), dismissed the accusations of misogyny as “locker room talk” and claimed just because Sarver used the N-word five times doesn’t make him a racist. The whole time I’ve thought: I wonder how many white people in America think like this." https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/sep/16/robert-sarver-lifetime-nba-ban-donald-sterling

He's also just not an interesting or unbiased analyst. Edit: And since I'm bashing Scalabrine, here's another thing. Last season Lowe had him on and he was just screaming into his mic the entire time. It was a god damn clown show, and he was lead clown.

588. jmurph Posted: November 30, 2022 at 09:56 AM (#6107296)

Jesus that's shitty.

Lowe and Bontemps on the Heat was interesting (in other Lowe Post news).

589. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 30, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6107301)

Not NBA, but the vaunted Syracuse zone defense held the Illini to a 35.8/28.2/63.6 shooting line last night...and lost by 30. Sometimes I really wonder why I watch that instead of the 140-110 Knicks-Pistons game last night. Luckily, I'm not stupid 100% of the time, so I did watch GS/DAL.

590. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 30, 2022 at 10:55 AM (#6107303)

I'm sorry, Toronto Raptors play-by-play guy, Fred VanVleet is only the second greatest thing to come out of Rockford, Illinois.

Never took you for one of those people who are a bigger fan of Destiny's Child than Beyonce.

(sorry, I'm trying so hard to find a better joke here, but Rockford really isn't helping me out)

591. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 30, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6107314)

Rockford, Illinois, ladies and gentlemen.

592. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 30, 2022 at 12:11 PM (#6107316)

I've had to begrudgingly come around to the idea that Scal is a decent Xs and Os analyst, but he is for sure an ass. That Sarver anecdote is gross, and fits with how he had weird on-air animosity towards the only woman on the Cs broadcast team for the first year he was doing color, I assume until someone told him to knock it off. I still wish they've promoted Cornbread Maxwell into the tv color chair after Tommy.

Despite that, I thought the conversation was an interesting look at why this team has been so good, though it might be a hard listen for anyone that hates the Cs, as Scal is definitely a homer. Agreed with jmurph that the Heat conversation was also interesting.

593. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 30, 2022 at 01:06 PM (#6107322)

I don’t hate the Cs, but it was a tough listen.

594. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 30, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6107325)

Fair, it's quite possible I've become somewhat inured to how annoying Scal is.

595. jmurph Posted: November 30, 2022 at 01:56 PM (#6107329)

Non-Celtics fans have to understand (obviously most of you already know this): TOMMY HEINSOHN was the analyst for basically my entire lifetime and I'm not a young person. Scalabrine is a beacon of unbiased advanced statistical analysis compared to that guy.

596. PJ Martinez Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:04 PM (#6107331)

Yeah, but I loved Tommy. Like FTO, I wished they'd moved Maxwell up to TV to fill his shoes — that also would have made Sean Grande (their radio play-by-play guy) the natural replacement for Mike Gorman, Heinsohn's partner for decades. Now they've got Grande filling in on Gorman's days off, and he and Scal seem to hate each other. It's not great.

597. Harlond Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:17 PM (#6107334)

Sometimes I really wonder why I watch that [Syracuse-Illinois game] instead of the 140-110 Knicks-Pistons game last night.

I watched that game. Usually a team looks pretty good when it shoots lights out and wins by 30. But I didn't think the Knicks looked that good. Probably has more to do with how bad the Pistons were, but as bad as they were, they still shot 50.6% for the game, despite being 29th in the league in FLD%.

598. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6107341)

Scalabrine is a beacon of unbiased advanced statistical analysis compared to that guy.

Scal is less of a homer than TOMMY, but Tommy had the vibe of a beloved uncle with a few too many drinks in him, while Scal brings the energy of, I dunno, your older brother's ######## friend. He's toned down the know-it-all grumpiness he had when he started and as I said he knows his Xs and Os (though not any real sort of statistical nuance), but he still just sucks.

599. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:50 PM (#6107344)

But! I was more talking about the Cs ball movement and offense than trying to have a referendum on Brian Scalabrine, who I think we can all agree sucks. (The Scal/Mark Jackson feud was one of the few times I've been tempted to take Mark Jackson's side in something.)

One of the points Lowe and Scal talked about was how much Tatum is doing setting off-ball screens to exploit his gravity and otherwise use the defense's attention on him to make things easier for his teammates. Lowe (I think) compared it to being a mixture of how Curry works in GS's offense and how Phoenix targets matchups they want to exploit, which seems like a pretty good comp. This year he really seems to have come into his full powers as a rangy wing with no glaring weaknesses on either side of the ball who is committed to pragmatically doing what makes sense for the team. It's been really fun to watch, and a lot of why I'm optimistic they can carry this forward when the shooting regresses to the mean some. (The rest of my optimism, as I mentioned, stems from how every player in the rotation is a smart, quick passer without being turnover prone. Their shot quality is as good as their shooting percentages.)

600. jmurph Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:57 PM (#6107347)

Where are people on the Warriors? After 22 games they're 11-11, 16th in SRS, 15th in BBRef Net Rating (9th in offense, 21st in defense), 10th place in the West. Where do they finish?

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