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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and their fathers are all the District Attorney.

Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2022 at 10:09 PM | 796 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

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   601. DCA Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:35 PM (#6107358)
Where are people on the Warriors? After 22 games they're 11-11, 16th in SRS, 15th in BBRef Net Rating (9th in offense, 21st in defense), 10th place in the West. Where do they finish?

Barring significant injury, I think they are better than they've shown to date - there are too many good defenders to be so bad on team defense, the starting lineup has been elite, the bench is basically all new and trending upward. I don't think my priors from pre-season are significantly changed - I'd guess they are about a 50-52 win team, and are two games off that pace, so I'd peg them at 48-50 wins at the end of the season. I'd put them in a group of 6 real West contenders (DEN,DAL,PHO,MEM,NOP) with little differentiation between that sextet at the moment.
   602. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6107361)
Golden State still sort of feels like the "best" team in the West to me. The problems seem to be with the bench, which feels fixable.

BUT, they are only .500 now and Curry's been healthy throughout. If he misses some time they'll lose some games and I think could easily finish 5th or 6th. Lower if he misses real time. Then are they good enough to overcome that, I don't know. There's no one team out there that I don't think they can beat, but winning playoff series on the road against good teams isn't easy and I don't think they're some sort of juggernaut.

EDIT - The Wolves being so bad makes the road to stay out of the play-in a lot easier for the Warriors and even Clippers, if they still count in these discussions. Not to dump on the Wolves some more but I really thought they were a high-floor regular season team even if not a playoff winner.
   603. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 30, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6107364)
I mean, please dump on the Wolves. This is appalling.
   604. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 30, 2022 at 08:09 PM (#6107399)
K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop
Billy Donovan on Lonzo Ball: It’s been really slow. He’s working through more and more but we’re not close to running or cutting or contact. Said the pain issue is still improving but not in clear.


Has a 25 year old professional athlete ever had knee replacement surgery before? #### it, give him a whole new leg just to be safe.

Forget what I said last page, blow it up. I'll change my mind later tonight if the Bulls can steal another quality road win. I just hope the Suns are wearing 90's throwback jerseys tonight like the Jazz did Monday; I think that's the only reason the Bulls won in SLC.
   605. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: November 30, 2022 at 09:33 PM (#6107408)
Ha, the Suns are wearing their 90's jerseys.
   606. spivey Posted: November 30, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6107409)
I think Tatum is the best wing in the NBA now. No qualifiers to that like two-way, whatever, just the best one.
   607. tshipman Posted: November 30, 2022 at 10:53 PM (#6107416)
I think Tatum is the best wing in the NBA now. No qualifiers to that like two-way, whatever, just the best one.


Is Giannis not a wing? Is Luka not a wing?

I honestly don't know what I think.
   608. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 01, 2022 at 12:17 AM (#6107420)
I happen to be randomly in Phoenix and went to that Suns-Bulls game tonight. Random in-person observations:

* Quality game experience. I will always have a soft spot for the Gorilla in particular, but overall entertainment was snappy, good party vibe, obviously helped that the Suns dominated.

* Make or miss league to be fair to the box score, but... watching Booker tonight was incredibly fun. Scored 51 in three quarters on 20 of 25 shooting, and honestly just so effortlessly smooth, everything in rhythm, didn't force anything. Just felt like this extended heater.

* Watching him in person I get why the idea of DeAndre Ayton is so appealing. He looks, well, honestly kind of like David Robinson in terms of being a physical specimen, moves with fluidity, gets great position (though he lacks the BBIQ and defensive acumen of The Admiral). He also complains to the refs all the ####### time. But point being, he just *looks* like a great basketball player. This is why we have metrics though!

* Speaking of the eye test... man, Coby White failed tonight big time. Was super passive. He got the ball on a couple leakout semi-transition opps and seemed like he just kind of panicked and blew the momentum. Just kind of invisible in his minutes on both sides of the ball. Honestly looked completely overmatched on the court.

* Eye test failure part 2: first time I'd seen Bismack Biyombo in person. I am happy to report he is every bit as terrible as he looks on TV and in the stat sheet. Hands of absolute stone, no clue of how to operate in a team concept, just a disaster.

* Mikal Bridges is just such a good basketball player. Watching him play defense is fascinating. He's always in the right position, always has things under control (I'm surprised his on/off D isn't better?). On O, he just always makes the right decisions, is where he needs to be, doesn't take anything off the table. Came away very impressed.
   609. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2022 at 08:09 AM (#6107424)
Is Giannis not a wing? Is Luka not a wing?

I honestly don't know what I think.


Irrespective of the rankings discussion, these are interesting questions. I think Luka has to just be considered a point guard? I feel fine with that. But is Giannis really used that much differently than Luka? And it feels crazy to me to call Giannis a point guard. The positionless thing is sort of a cliche at this point- most teams do still have relatively defined points, wings, and bigs these days- but Giannis kind of breaks that.
   610. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 01, 2022 at 08:13 AM (#6107425)
Are we assigning players based on the role they have in the offense or in the defense? Or some combination?
   611. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 08:54 AM (#6107428)
I think Giannis is a big man.

Luka I think of as a PG, but much of what "position" you are is who you guard, so saying he's a wing is reasonable. I also think Tatum is just better than Luka now, at least in the regular season? They are very different, of course.
   612. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2022 at 09:02 AM (#6107429)
Doncic is hard to fully evaluate because Dallas remains committed to surrounding him with mediocrity. (I mean we obviously know he's great, I'm just saying he could look even better on a competent team.)
   613. KronicFatigue Posted: December 01, 2022 at 09:09 AM (#6107431)
Giannis is a big because if you built a dream lineup, that's where he'd play. He can play at both wing or big, but he's more valuable/uniquely talented as a big.

You'd only play him at wing if you had bigs good enough to push him down to wing. And those don't exist.
   614. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: December 01, 2022 at 09:46 AM (#6107436)
* Make or miss league to be fair to the box score, but... watching Booker tonight was incredibly fun. Scored 51 in three quarters on 20 of 25 shooting, and honestly just so effortlessly smooth, everything in rhythm, didn't force anything. Just felt like this extended heater.

Bulls were 4 for 25 on their 3s, which is probably the worst they've shot this year; but they don't have a lot of good 3pt shooters so games like that are going to happen (probably more frequently to a team like them than a team full of good shooters). Non-Booker Suns were 9 for 26 on 3s (Booker went 6 for 7).

I don't want to say the Bulls played great defense last night, especially on Booker (there were at least 5 times you could see various Bulls players yelling at each other over blown assignments), but I don't think it was *that* bad as much as Booker was on one of those heaters where he just wasn't going to miss. Those games are always cool to see. For the record, he went 20 for 25 on FGs, and he didn't really score until halfway thru the 1st quarter and didn't play the 4th at all. He could have definitely gone for 75 last night if Monty let him.

Speaking of the eye test... man, Coby White failed tonight big time. Was super passive. He got the ball on a couple leakout semi-transition opps and seemed like he just kind of panicked and blew the momentum. Just kind of invisible in his minutes on both sides of the ball. Honestly looked completely overmatched on the court.

IMO, he always looks like that. He'll have an occasional game where his shot is falling so he looks to be more aggressive. But he's not a good player, and he's an even worse fit on this roster.
   615. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: December 01, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6107437)
You'd only play him at wing if you had bigs good enough to push him down to wing. And those don't exist.

I'd argue he's a wing on the Bucks, with Lopez as the big. Lopez is an ideal big to pair with Giannis though, because Brook is such a good post defender and can shoot from the outside. That allows Giannis to roam more on D and play wings (or bigs when Brook is resting) but operate inside on O.
   616. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:05 AM (#6107438)
I'd argue he's a wing on the Bucks, with Lopez as the big. Lopez is an ideal big to pair with Giannis though, because Brook is such a good post defender and can shoot from the outside. That allows Giannis to roam more on D and play wings (or bigs when Brook is resting) but operate inside on O.


I'd argue Milwaukee plays with 2 bigs, and I would also probably argue Giannis is best in 2 big lineups. He can guard the big wing types like Butler who are really almost power forwards in today's game, but imo you really don't want him chasing guys around the perimeter, or trying to lock up quick, good dribbling wings. I also think he's better as a secondary rim protector rather than the guy you want put in pnr sets over and over again. Like, he can handle that, but I don't think he's Bam at it.
   617. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:20 AM (#6107441)
The Heat-Celtics game was a fun one, they combined to go 40-85 from 3. Miami kept it close until fairly late on the road without Butler, which is impressive, but a big part of that was Max Strus channeling peak Klay in the 3rd quarter, going 5-7 from 3 and scoring 19.

Looking at their numbers, they've got a lot of problems. Surely a lot of that is Butler missing time, but Butler always misses time. Robinson looks like he's playing himself out of the league and Herro's had a pretty bad start. Lowry, on the other hand, has looked good and played well.
   618. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6107454)
I don't want to say the Bulls played great defense last night, especially on Booker (there were at least 5 times you could see various Bulls players yelling at each other over blown assignments), but I don't think it was *that* bad as much as Booker was on one of those heaters where he just wasn't going to miss.


Yeah, in-person, the Bulls defense seemed fine overall (they did a good job limiting open 3s on kickouts, for instance, forcing the Suns to reset offense). Just better offense, as they say. Not just the shotmaking but Booker played a super intelligent game to get good shots, all the separation moves and some good screen actions and whatnot. Felt like he was always on balance and knocking his defender off balance.

He could have definitely gone for 75 last night if Monty let him.


The friend I went to the game with (very casual fan), after 3 quarters, was like "what do you think Booker is going to end up with? 70?" and I said "51", and we had a good discussion about load management in the NBA.
   619. PJ Martinez Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:41 AM (#6107458)
Are their reasons to dismiss Phoenix apart from what happened in the playoffs last year? The more basic numbers (won-loss, point-differential, net rating) suggest that they are the class of the West, despite missing Paul for half of their games so far.
   620. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6107468)
Are their reasons to dismiss Phoenix apart from what happened in the playoffs last year? The more basic numbers (won-loss, point-differential, net rating) suggest that they are the class of the West, despite missing Paul for half of their games so far.


I mean, basically, if you can guard Booker well like Dallas did, what's their offense?

Paul seems like he might just be a role player now? Like, I think they're good, but I think to win 3-4 playoff series, you either need someone like Luka that can truly get shots for everyone pretty much on demand, which Booker can't do, or you need a more egalitarian offense.
   621. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 01, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6107481)
It was announced today that Al Horford and the Celtics signed a 2yr/$20m extension. That takes him through his age 39 season while giving the Cs some roster security at the big even if they decide not to pay Grant Williams (though I really don't expect that). He's talked about wanting to stay in Boston; given what PJ Tucker got I think it's safe to say $10/per is a pretty team-friendly number. Even if Horford can't continue to cheat father time for two more years this should be a pretty reasonable salary, especially with the cap projected to go up.
   622. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 01, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6107482)
Nice piece about Zion on The Athletic. It's only two games, but he's dominated the previous two contests while the Pels are missing CJ and Ingram. Not sure if this picture will be viewable....but Zion dunking while 5 Raptors stand in the paint is quite an image.
   623. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 01, 2022 at 01:41 PM (#6107483)
Mikal Bridges' steady improvement has been huge for Phoenix. He's efficient on offense and solid on defense. Even without CP3, Booker, Bridges, and Ayton (26, 26, 24) is a pretty good and symbiotic trio.
   624. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: December 01, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6107486)
Not sure if this picture will be viewable....but Zion dunking while 5 Raptors stand in the paint is quite an image.

That's a great picture. Tag yourself - I'm Siakam.
   625. kubiwan Posted: December 01, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6107489)
Not sure if this picture will be viewable....but Zion dunking while 5 Raptors stand in the paint is quite an image.


This is almost certainly NOT what any of them are actually thinking, but I love that 4 of the 5 have expressions like "Well, we certainly screwed up this possession, didn't we?" and the one on the right is like "Daammmnnnn! Look at that!".
   626. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 01, 2022 at 02:21 PM (#6107490)
It's likely just a single frame coincidence, but I'm a big fan of Scottie Barnes' "wtf guys" left hand gesture in that picture.
   627. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:01 PM (#6107496)
That is an all-time picture.
   628. DCA Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6107500)
I mean, basically, if you can guard Booker well like Dallas did, what's their offense?

I think Phoenix has the biggest potential for improvement of any of the West contenders (and they are first place now).

(1) They will eventually get Paul and Cam Johnson back.
(2) They have dead salary that they can move for expensive talent: Crowder and Saric combined can fetch up to $24m in salary. Crowder has positive value to a contender and Saric is expiring. Add in Shamet (overpaid but a worthy rotation piece) and they can trade for a max guy (up to $36m). You can fill a lot of holes with that money.

I'm actually going to be a bit surprised if Jordan Clarkson isn't on the Suns when the playoffs begin.
   629. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6107504)
premature to ask this, but: if they added clarkson, what do you make the rotation? i think payne has affirmed that he's still worth trying at the point.
   630. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: December 01, 2022 at 07:10 PM (#6107539)
Well, Clarkson isn't really a PG and is better coming off the bench. But he can play with both Paul and Payne. I'd also expect Paul to play less than previous years and/or get hurt, so having another ballhandler like that will always come in handy. This may be considered a cop out, but the matchups also will dictate how some of those bench minutes will play anyway.
   631. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6107548)
Phoenix was light on guys who could dribble and pass last year, and I figure that will only be worse this year. Bridges assists and unassisted 2s are up this year, but I'm not sure they're up more than Paul's output in the playoffs will be down.
   632. Harlond Posted: December 01, 2022 at 08:48 PM (#6107549)
Watching Mavs at Pistons because it’s the only game on the schedule. But it’s a tight game with Luka and Bojan both red hot. Also I really like the nickname Beef Stew.
   633. tshipman Posted: December 01, 2022 at 09:11 PM (#6107551)
Are their reasons to dismiss Phoenix apart from what happened in the playoffs last year?


"Guys, I'm tired of hearing about the three times I took a dump in the pool. That's in the past! Now, who wants to go swimming?"

More seriously, the Suns are an extreme system team that struggles when you take away pet actions. Their coach is exceptionally slow to make adjustments, and their best players have a reputation for being mentally soft. They also have this weird identity crisis where their best form is probably a 5 out team with tons of shooting, but they insist on playing Ayton a ton.
   634. aberg Posted: December 02, 2022 at 04:11 AM (#6107570)
I think the Wolves are going to play better without Towns for the next two months. Obviously, SloMo is not a better player, but he fits the rest of the lineup better and now they can play with four plus defenders behind DLo/McLaughlin. If Edwards play well as the focal point of the offense, they can still score enough points to be a top half offense and something like the 10th best defense. If the shooters get hot (DLo, McDaniels, Prince, Anderson, etc), there's more upside in the offense.

On the other hand, I moved to Europe last week and basically can't watch the Wolves play live, and I don't mind that at all right now.
   635. aberg Posted: December 02, 2022 at 05:14 AM (#6107571)
"Guys, I'm tired of hearing about the three times I took a dump in the pool. That's in the past! Now, who wants to go swimming?"


Your points are very fair and probably why I wouldn't pick them to win the title or come especially close to it, but I think there are at least a couple counters. One- they made the finals and went up 2-0, so it's not like they're miles away from postseason success due to some inherent design flaw. Two- the points about CP3 cut both ways. If he's more of a role player now, that means you lose some of his ruthless efficiency, but it also allows the offensive structure to be a little more flexible and unpredictable. Booker is the type of player who can use his technique to get space and score outside of a rigid system. Bridges and Johnson taking on more offensive responsibility also move them away from the versions of the CP3 offense that has been unsuccessful in the playoffs.

So the question becomes, does an offense built around Booker with Paul, Bridges, and Johnson as role players, and figuring out how best to use Ayton have enough juice to make a deep playoff run? I think the answer is probably not, but not exactly because that version has failed repeatedly.

If I had to pick to a team to come out of the West right now, it would be Mmephis. That can definitely change through the season, but that team makes the most sense to me. I wish they had someone more steady in the Brooks spot (he feels too likely to shoot them out of a game and they don't really need his ability to put the ball on the floor with Ja and Bane in their crunch time ilneup). Anyway, I love the defense with JJJ at the back line and the ability to pivot between big and small configurations without losing rim protection or too much rebounding.

edit: No idea if their roster holds up physically, but New Orleans is right there, too. They're the only team sniffing PHX in SRS. It would be nice if they had one more creative ball-handler off the bench. It's also scary to pick a team to make a deep run that has done nothing at all together, but we're also at a weird point in the league (especially in the West), where the only cohesive rosters that have accomplished much are verging on decrepit. To that end, I can see why people are defaulting to GS, but they might have like 2.5 good players.
   636. jmurph Posted: December 02, 2022 at 07:44 AM (#6107572)
Well if anyone else wasn't awake in the middle of the night like I was there was some, uhhhh, other Chris Paul news circulating on the internet.
   637. aberg Posted: December 02, 2022 at 07:46 AM (#6107573)
Well if anyone else wasn't awake in the middle of the night like I was there was some, uhhhh, other Chris Paul news circulating on the internet.


You sure? I thought that looked a lot like Cliff.
   638. tshipman Posted: December 02, 2022 at 11:32 AM (#6107589)
Well if anyone else wasn't awake in the middle of the night like I was there was some, uhhhh, other Chris Paul news circulating on the internet.


Someone needs to ask Chris what he thinks about the holocaust.
   639. spivey Posted: December 02, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6107604)
Sounds like Khris Middleton is planning to play tonight. I'm excited.
   640. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 02, 2022 at 01:18 PM (#6107607)
On the other hand, I moved to Europe last week


Big news alert!!!
   641. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 02, 2022 at 02:16 PM (#6107612)
Someone needs to ask Chris what he thinks about the holocaust.

There is approximately a 0% chance Chris "Corporate Spokesperson" Paul is going to give a controversial take on a topic like that publicly. Cliff maybe, but not Chris.
   642. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 02, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6107622)
Cliff seems like the sort of guy you'd take out, get drunk, and be like holy #### this guy is actually really funny.
   643. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: December 02, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6107635)
sample size = 1 but the only person i know who's had to spend extended time around chris paul was really positive about him.
   644. tshipman Posted: December 02, 2022 at 05:27 PM (#6107637)
sample size = 1 but the only person i know who's had to spend extended time around chris paul was really positive about him.


Is the person you know Kim Khardashian?
   645. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: December 02, 2022 at 05:37 PM (#6107639)
i'll never tell
   646. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: December 02, 2022 at 06:45 PM (#6107648)
On the other hand, I moved to Europe last week and basically can't watch the Wolves play live, and I don't mind that at all right now.


You are missing nothing.
   647. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: December 02, 2022 at 10:03 PM (#6107686)
A game like tonight is the type of game where part of me thinks with a couple good moves, the Lakers could win the West. I mean, I won't predict they'll make the right move or be healthy enough if they do, but lebron and AD like this are really ####### tough.

   648. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 02, 2022 at 10:13 PM (#6107688)
Brilliant game for the Lakers. The Lakers can be a really good team if AD plays this well. He has been amazing recently. Russ was really good today 15 points and 11 assists with zero! turnovers. He did miss two crucial free throws at the end of the game when even making one would have helped out a lot.

The Lakers can be really good if AD can play at this level and stay healthy.
   649. tshipman Posted: December 02, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6107695)
The Lakers can be really good if AD can play at this level and stay healthy.


Play-in team, bro.
   650. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 04, 2022 at 09:03 PM (#6107925)
AD is playing out of his mind right now. 55 points and 17 rebounds today.
   651. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 05, 2022 at 09:07 AM (#6107984)
He's definitely showing out right now. I hope he can keep it up, I'm no Laker fan but AD and LeBron are easy to root for.
   652. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 05, 2022 at 11:35 AM (#6108012)
Semi-weird situation in Atlanta:

Since the face of the Hawks’ franchise was deciding not to take part in shootaround, McMillan ultimately presented him with two options for that night’s game, sources said: Play off the bench — or do not show up to the arena. Young responded by saying he would not be playing against the Nuggets, and the team ruled him out while citing right shoulder soreness.


Hawks have been playing well and beat Denver even with Trae missing the game.
   653. DCA Posted: December 05, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6108065)
This morning's project: blowing up the Hornets. There's not much to blow up, but there's something.

To BRK: Rozier, Oubre
To CHO: Kyrie, 2023 1st, 2025 2nd

To LAL: Plumlee, Green Horn
To CHO: Westbrook

To BOS: PJ Washington
To CHO: 2x 2023 2nd

To MIN: Dennis Smith Jr, Jalen McDaniels
To CHO: Josh Minott

To maximize the tank, buyouts of Westbrook and Irving could be negotiated.
   654. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 05, 2022 at 04:13 PM (#6108124)
I kind of irrationally love Josh Minott, so that would be hard for me.
   655. aberg Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:00 AM (#6108197)
I saw that Fultz was 2/4 on 3s last night and thought it was cool that he's making 3s now. Then I saw they were the first 2 he has made this year and the first time he has made 2 in a game since December, 2020.
   656. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2022 at 10:34 AM (#6108218)
Took a look at SRS just now, I assume we all had the Pelicans at 2 and Kings at 5?
   657. spivey Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:13 AM (#6108223)
Took a look at SRS just now, I assume we all had the Pelicans at 2 and Kings at 5?


Pels at 2 is a bit surprising to me, but not *wild*. Their stats after they traded for McCollum last year were very good. And then you add in Zion, their young defenders (Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Alvarado) all get an extra year of experience. It makes sense. Though like someone else said, I just think the combination of one-way guys and inexperience keeps me from picking them to make a deep run in the playoffs. But I love their team, and I think if they could, say, get a good stretch C who can also protect the paint, man, I'd love their future. I think they'd be a good Turner team, and I think it'd be reasonable for them to deal a pick or two to make it happen.
   658. DCA Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6108228)
I think they'd be a good Turner team, and I think it'd be reasonable for them to deal a pick or two to make it happen.

JV for Turner works straight up. Would either team do that? Turner is the better rim protector, but JV gets more boards and actually is a better shooter (on lesser but non-neglible 3P volume) and is cheaper and signed for another year.

I think the path to a deal is if NOP think they can resign/extend Turner and Indy is convinced that he will walk (and doesn't want to punt when they are in playoff position).

   659. DCA Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:56 AM (#6108236)
Who says no?

To PHO: Hield, Devonte'
To NOP: Turner, Crowder
To IND: JV, Saric, Shamet, 2024 PHO 1st (lottery protected, becomes 2024 2nd + 2026 2nd)
   660. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6108238)
Did we ever figure out why Crowder wanted to be traded? Maybe I missed it. It's certainly one of the weirder trade requests I can remember.
   661. DCA Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6108244)
I think Cam Johnson was going to be a starter, and he decided he didn't want to come off the bench.
   662. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:27 PM (#6108264)
So is Davis just playing center now for the Lakers? He just cave on this finally? (I know I haven't paid close enough attention myself just wanted to fire this one off comment and see if it's the case or not.)
   663. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:28 PM (#6108265)
These are the best power rankings, I think. They can fluctuate because based on betting lines, and betting lines in NBA get wacked pretty wildly by Load Management. http://stats.inpredictable.com/rankings/nba.php

Betting lines do seem to be thinking Pelicans the real deal, and Kings are a playoff team. Guess we'll see.
   664. spivey Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:35 PM (#6108267)
JV for Turner works straight up. Would either team do that? Turner is the better rim protector, but JV gets more boards and actually is a better shooter (on lesser but non-neglible 3P volume) and is cheaper and signed for another year.


Don't think there's any way that Indiana does that. Age for one, but also Turner's defense and spacing is just way more valuable than the things Jonas is good at. Jonas shoots 1-2 3s a game. I think that's pretty much negligible when teams are shooting about 35-40/game.
   665. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: December 06, 2022 at 05:01 PM (#6108322)
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
The Sixers have been a uniquely miserable team to watch and follow this year. Let’s go over the reasons why the city has lost trust in the team
phillyvoice.com/sixers-76ers-m…

   666. aberg Posted: December 07, 2022 at 01:42 AM (#6108427)
New Orleans seems like they're almost all the way to contender status, but I can see selling them based on the history of "new" teams making deep playoff runs. McCollum and JV have some postseason success, but this group and coach does not and they have not played together much. If you believe that it takes a couple playoff failures before you can go really deep, you can't really buy them yet. I think that's a factor, but not necessarily a hard and fast rule. We'll see what happens over the next several months because I think they could be a real threat to make the CF or Finals.
   667. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2022 at 08:37 AM (#6108438)
Sixers: it’s obviously crazy to dismiss them until their three main guys are healthy, they could easily put together a great run. But the supporting cast is awful, they need like 4 more rotation players.
   668. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: December 07, 2022 at 08:52 AM (#6108449)
i don't think that's true. melton is better than a rotation type. harris is flawed but skilled. both of those guys have strong arguments for being in the top 100-125 guys in the league. harrell is having a down year but has consistently been a high level backup center. milton has played well offensively, is a rotation guy. they've other guys that make my criteria for "rotation guy" as well.

their big offseason acquisitions weren't great and aren't doing well. pj tucker's usage is so low that it overwhelms the impact of his defense and house has been actively bad. (worth the picks, morey?)

i heard doc's name floated as a coach of the year candidate, for weathering injuries to their stars; i think that's bonkers.
   669. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 07, 2022 at 09:21 AM (#6108459)
I'm still not sold on the Pels' defense, although they're proving me wrong right now (#3 ranked defense). The rim protection still isn't there, but the rebounding is pretty good, and Herb Jones and Alvarado can guard without being zeroes on offense.
   670. aberg Posted: December 07, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6108473)
But the supporting cast is awful, they need like 4 more rotation players.


i don't think that's true. melton is better than a rotation type. harris is flawed but skilled. both of those guys have strong arguments for being in the top 100-125 guys in the league. harrell is having a down year but has consistently been a high level backup center. milton has played well offensively, is a rotation guy. they've other guys that make my criteria for "rotation guy" as well.


I suppose there's a gap between "having good role players" and "having rotation players playing well." I like Doc, but I think it's fair to chalk up some of that gap to coaching, usage, and chemistry. I've had the reaction to Philly the last couple of years that it seems like the non-stars are all playing worse than they should (other than some random good runs by guys like Reed and Furk).
   671. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6108498)
I suppose there's a gap between "having good role players" and "having rotation players playing well."

i think this is true. that said, melton and harris and milton, to take three, are all easily playing at a rotation or better level (imo). dunksandthrees, to name one site/metric, has harris 91st in epm, melton 99th, milton 172nd (bad d), niang 167th.
stars: embiid 5, harden 19, maxey 97 (bad d).
other guys playing 12+ min per: reed is 198, harrell 216, tucker 251 (he's 2nd on the team in minutes), house 392, thybulle 330, korkmaz 277

sidebar: i might be the leader of the melton fan club - he's a solid three point shooter (38% over the last 2+ seasons), well above average defender, and a plus passer for a two. don't love the ballhandling (you don't want him at the one on offense), not a great finisher, small for an offguard (though he can guard them, he's strong) and you'll often wanna crossmatch so he pressures the one on that end and lets maxey or whomever take a lesser assignment. absolutely a championship level rotation guy.
   672. asinwreck Posted: December 07, 2022 at 08:42 PM (#6108632)
   673. smileyy Posted: December 07, 2022 at 09:13 PM (#6108640)
More like "Ball Ball" right?
   674. spivey Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:06 PM (#6108650)
Boston just absolutely clowned Phoenix that half.
   675. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:09 PM (#6108653)
The problem with the Lakers this year is that they do not really have much of a chance of beating a good team if neither Anthony Davis or Lebron James is not playing. They do not really have even that could have a chance of being a bad team if either one of them is missing. Considering the hole that they have dug themselves, they could win 80% of the games that Lebron and Davis play together and still not made the playoffs.
   676. spivey Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:33 PM (#6108655)
The clowning has continued to this half. It's now 94-49.
   677. spivey Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:35 PM (#6108656)
Boston just looks so much more athletic.
   678. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:35 PM (#6108657)
Oops spivey beat me to it.

Why am I still awake?
   679. PJ Martinez Posted: December 07, 2022 at 11:49 PM (#6108658)
Nightmare game for the Suns: 4-24 from 3 through three quarters, foul trouble all night for Booker, and Paul doesn't really seem all the way back or reintegrated into this team. But also Boston has been really good.
   680. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 08, 2022 at 07:59 AM (#6108673)
The problem with the Lakers this year is that they do not really have much of a chance of beating a good team if neither Anthony Davis or Lebron James is not playing.


Does any team (other than Boston) have a chance at beating a good team if their top two players are out?
   681. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: December 08, 2022 at 12:23 PM (#6108731)
The Celtics are extraordinarily good this year (seriously, it has been an absolute joy watching the degree of collective intelligence, trust, and skill they play with), but it seems a bit premature to say how good they'd be with their top two out until we actually see it: they've played exactly zero games with neither Tatum or Brown, both of whom are in the top 15 in total minutes.

In any case, I had better get back to trash talking my Bay Area friends and in-laws, time's a-wasting.
   682. smileyy Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6108910)
Does any team (other than Boston) have a chance at beating a good team if their top two players are out?


Against good teams, it's more of an "if either of their top players are out" for the Lakers.
   683. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:46 PM (#6108916)
Surely for the Lakers the issue is that they are the most likely to have one or both of their top two out than just about any other team.
   684. DCA Posted: December 09, 2022 at 06:54 PM (#6108955)
just about any other team.

I'm not actually sure about that. James and Davis are not especially durable, but they're not especially fragile either. Just off the top of my head the following big two tandems seem as likely or less to stay on the court as LBJ/AD

LAC Kawhi/George
MIA Butler/Bam
PHI Harden/Embiid
BRK Kyrie/Durant


   685. smileyy Posted: December 09, 2022 at 08:27 PM (#6108958)
The Lakers are not doing a great job defending against All-Star centers these last couple games.
   686. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: December 09, 2022 at 10:19 PM (#6108966)
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Sixers blow a 16-point lead in the final 5 minutes of play, but, luckily for the Sixers (for now), the Lakers missed a pair of free-throws in the final 10 seconds and we'll head to overtime with the scored tied at 120. What an incredible collapse.
Rich Hoffman @rich_hofmann
The Sixers committed TEN turnovers in the fourth quarter alone. Couldn't get the ball in. Should have lost the game, incredibly fortunate that Reeves and Davis went 3 of 5 from the line late in the game.
Rich Hoffman @rich_hofmann
I've seen a lot. I've never seen this.
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
you simply have to laugh
Austin Krell @NBAKrell
*Sighs, erases half of game story*
Erik Slater @erikslater_
So the Sixers were up by 9 against the Lakers with 30 seconds left. And the game is in overtime.

   687. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: December 09, 2022 at 10:24 PM (#6108967)
Kyle Goon @kylegoon
Lakers miss their first seven shots of OT.
Brad Turner @BA_Turner
Lakers are 0-for-9 in OT and haven't scored a single point
Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
Only the Sixers can make what should have been a comfortable win feel like a soul crushing loss. phillyvoice.com/instant-observ…

   688. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 10, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6108985)
Only the Sixers can make what should have been a comfortable win feel like a soul crushing loss. phillyvoice.com/instant-observ…


As a wolves fan I can assure you, it is not only the Sixers.
   689. Moeball Posted: December 10, 2022 at 11:15 AM (#6108989)
Warriors have one of their most difficult stretches coming up. Part of what made the earlier big road trip such a disaster was that it was against mostly bad teams, but the Ws were losing anyway. Now this is going to be a stretch against competitive teams and, quite frankly, I have seen nothing from GS this season that tells me they are going to win these games. They've already lost 2 in a row against teams they should have beaten and I'm guessing this losing streak will extend to 6 or more games and will put them well under .500. Here goes:
12/10 Home vs Bos GS will get blown out, it won't even be close. Record will drop to 13-14.

12/13 @Mil 13-15
12/14 @Ind 13-16
12/16 @Phi 13-17
12/18 @Tor 13-18
12/20 @Knicks 14-18
12/21 @Nets 14-19
12/25 Home vs Memp 14-20

The poor defensive play the Warriors have consistently exhibited this season gives me no confidence that they aren't about to get massacred throughout this upcoming stretch of games. Now I would like to believe they've turned the corner and will be 20-14 after this stretch instead of 14-20, but they haven't shown me that they're ready to turn that corner yet. They could beat the Celtics tonight and my prediction will immediately look foolish but my expectation is that a couple of weeks from now Kerr is going to come to the realization that he's got a team very much in danger of not even making the playoffs at all.
   690. Harlond Posted: December 10, 2022 at 12:14 PM (#6108997)
Giving the game away to the Jazz in the last seconds can’t have helped their morale.
   691. tshipman Posted: December 10, 2022 at 10:57 PM (#6109091)
12/10 Home vs Bos GS will get blown out, it won't even be close. Record will drop to 13-14.


Either a great reverse jinx, or an all time pants-pissing post.

***

Nets decide to rest KD, Kyrie, Claxton, Seth Curry, Simmons, Joe Harris, etc. etc. etc. and ... WIN against the Pacers by pulling down 29 offensive rebounds.
   692. sardonic Posted: December 10, 2022 at 11:58 PM (#6109093)
The Ws close losses are frustrating for sure, but you also kind of just have to think of close games as semi random. I think they are roughly what their record is: slightly above .500 with about the 5th or 6th best point differential in the West.

They've tightened up their rotation, particularly by punting Wiseman to the G league and Kuminga is looking playable, so my guess is they'll win roughly 6 out of 10 games going forward and end up around 50 wins and above the play in bracket. Then it'll just be about health, development from the young guns and luck, as it always is.
   693. PJ Martinez Posted: December 11, 2022 at 09:25 PM (#6109120)
Since I asked, in 619, whether there were good reasons to dismiss Phoenix (and got some good answers), the Suns have lost four in a row, fallen to fourth in the West, and dropped to fifth (league-wide) in Net Rating.

The Pelicans are starting to look like the class of the West, though the conference remains fairly wide open. I've gone back to thinking it'd be crazy for the Warriors not to cash in a couple of draft picks and young players to bolster their roster and make another run at it.
   694. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 11, 2022 at 09:26 PM (#6109121)
Crazy ending to this Hawks-Bulls game: Trae Young makes a go-ahead shot with 1.0 left, the Hawks fouled DeRozan, who sunk three free throws to retake the lead, then Atlanta lobbed it to AJ Griffin, who spun it in at the buzzer.
   695. spivey Posted: December 11, 2022 at 09:33 PM (#6109122)
The Pelicans are starting to look like the class of the West, though the conference remains fairly wide open. I've gone back to thinking it'd be crazy for the Warriors not to cash in a couple of draft picks and young players to bolster their roster and make another run at it.


I agree. I just don't think Poole, Kuminga, or Moody (or especially Wiseman) have shown enough to feel like they're more than role players. Maybe a couple of them develop into the sub-allstar types, but if they were going to perennial allstars, they'd have very likely shown more by now, imo.
   696. tshipman Posted: December 11, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6109123)
I agree. I just don't think Poole, Kuminga, or Moody (or especially Wiseman) have shown enough to feel like they're more than role players. Maybe a couple of them develop into the sub-allstar types, but if they were going to perennial allstars, they'd have very likely shown more by now, imo.


Poole, I think, showed a lot last year. He is really good and is effectively untradeable this year due to the poison pill provision.

Kuminga is tantalizing, and just in the last couple of weeks seems to be taking a huge step. He's the guy that would be hard because you are going to value him more than almost anyone else. His first 10 games or so, he was a dumpster fire, but in his last 10 games he genuinely does look like a future all star. That is so tricky from a talent evaluation perspective. Which guy is the real guy?

Moody is fine. He looks like a future rotation player, and has largely played well this year. He turns it over too much for the type of player he is, but other than that, will have a 10 year career.

Wiseman has to be in any deal, just due to the salary. He has obviously been a tire fire. You hope that Troy Weaver really liked him coming out of college.

With that, the Warriors are a weird team to try to pick up guys for. You are probably not going to find someone who can fit a closing lineup, because the boring old Warriors lineup is still great. So you want someone who can give an identity to the bench lineups, allow Poole to move off the ball, and fix your rebounding. Maybe that's Poetl? Maybe it's someone like Isaiah Stewart? Is Jarred Vanderbilt available? Is Lauri Markkanen available?

Your ideal target would be like Julius Randle, Brandon Clarke, or John Collins. That player type at least. But those guys are probably too good and too early in their career to take a smaller role.
   697. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2022 at 08:28 AM (#6109138)
Poole, I think, showed a lot last year. He is really good and is effectively untradeable this year due to the poison pill provision.

I think I disagree with "really good," I'd go with really talented. But he makes so many bad decisions on offense and seems to be a pretty bad defensive player. I just think the line for this type of player between bench Clarkson type and actual All Star level guy is thin, but he's already got the All Star level contract. I think there's room for concern there.
   698. aberg Posted: December 12, 2022 at 08:48 AM (#6109139)
All Star level contract


By the time the new contract kicks in, I suspect it will not look like an All-Star contract at all. He'll make a shade over $30m AAV. There are already about 40 guys making $30m+ for 22/23 and that will certainly go up by next year with other extensions kicking in and free agents getting bigger contracts. $30m at the midpoint of that contract is probably closer to being part of the starting core on a good team than All Star.
   699. spivey Posted: December 12, 2022 at 09:16 AM (#6109143)
Poole is good, but he's struggled this year, was benched for parts of the playoffs last year, and my point is more just that he's a good player but not someone anywhere near the caliber of player you say "Well we can't push in our chips now and leave our cupboard bare for the Poole era!"
   700. sardonic Posted: December 12, 2022 at 09:34 AM (#6109146)
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