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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 19, 2022
I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and their fathers are all the District Attorney.
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These are all fair points.
This. The Warriors starting/closing 5 already has the best net rating in the league, and they have the fundamentals of a ~50 win team despite punting a lot of minutes on developing Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody. The difference between this year and last year's team (which was destroying the league early in the season) is Otto Porter Jr. and GP2 (and luck in close games). I think the hope is that Donte DiVincenzo can approximate GP3's contribution (with more offense and less defense), and that seems to be panning out now that he's healthy and gotten some run.
OPJ type is harder -- Poetl, Stewart, Markkanen don't fit that archetype, and not sure why the Jazz would give up Vanderbilt. Scrolling through the top minutes played players in the league, it's not clear which veteran big wing who can shoot threes, defend and rebound is available.
And of course, the actual OPJ and GP2 have played a combined 8 games between them so far, so it's not like the actual Warriors this season would have been better off so far punting DDV, Wiseman and JaMychael Green to keep them.
Wiseman is looking the most lost out of the three lottery picks, but a few weeks ago that would have been Kuminga. In practice, the Warriors have gotten OPJ/GP2 type players off the scrap heap and by being an attractive organization to ring chase with or develop with, not by trading first round picks. This is probably an unpopular opinion but I'd probably still rather have a lottery ticket and play the buyout game to get that veteran big wing for this season's playoff run than chase a deal like Wiseman + 1-2 FRP for an OPJ type.
He's definitely not that caliber of player. He was really good in the playoffs last year on offense.
The Warriors want to be the Spurs, but there are a lot of headwinds:
1. Wiseman looks like a bust. He's more likely to be zero value than an all star.
2. Poole looks more like Tony Parker level of value as upside, not Tim Duncan level. That's a nice player, and could definitely be part of the next great Warrior's team, but finding hall of famers is hard.
3. That means that there's a choice. If you want to maximize titles in a 10 year window, you have to evaluate whether a 5% increase in your odds this year is worth paying for it down the road. If you think Kuminga could be your Kawhi, then it's not worth losing equity for years 5-10 to improve year one. If you think that there is no window from years 5-10, then it's always worth the trade.
I am probably more on the side that they need to make a deal.
They are appalling. Deeply unpleasant to watch.
This is a correct and reasonable take, but also the idea of putting Poole next to Tim Duncan is deeply funny to me. The Little Fundamental!
If anything, the ruthless thing to do would be to get off Klay's contract while he's looking frisky, give those minutes to Poole, and then aggregate your remaining assets to get a real difference maker. But I don't think they'll do that.
They really need 2014 Andre Iguodala, and I have no ####### clue who is even close to that these days. There are better versions of that player who are unavailable (Jimmy Butler, Paul George), and worse versions of that player who are probably available and don't help that much (Kyle Anderson, Jalen McDaniels), but the right size version of that player isn't available.
Maybe Harrison Barnes? as hilarious as that would be.
There have been flashes of pretty good.
On the plus side, Dlo is playing so much better. Also, the team-wide effort level is not so dire as to make me want to kill people. There are signs that Rudy is starting to become acclimated and is playing better. Ant shows flashes in his game where you can still see the promised land. Their 2-pt shooting has been pretty good.
On the bad side, turnovers. Dear lord, they turn the ball over in a constant stream of dumb ways. Of all of their problems, one would hope this would be the most fixable. Hope. They foul too much, but that has been a problem for a while and is likely not going away - sadly. Their transition defense is dire. Their normal set defense is actually fine, but in transition, they are giving points away. Ant is still only showing flashes of the complete game he needs to take a major step up. The other young guys - especially Jaden and Jaylen - are not making the strides one would hope. And of course, KAT is injured. Sigh.
Caruso is feisty so can guard up.
Interesting question since a lot of the perennial candidates (Roy Williams, Jay Wright, Coach K) have retired. At a glance, I think Tony Bennett, Scott Drew, Bill Self, and Calipari are the only active coaches with titles. Drew is near the top of the list. Self and Calipari have probably underachieved vs expected titles (my guess it that's true with nearly every powerhouse coach). Bennett gets results, but isn't the most innovative guy. The best coach is probably someone who can do more with less, like Alabama's Nate Oates.
Alright what say you NBA thread? I loved Hakeem and am game for any reason to celebrate him but I think that should be Tim Duncan.
EDIT: Ha, I have discovered on BBRef that Duncan never won a DPOY, which is just incredible. So I guess Hakeem it is!
I love that MIP is named after Mikan. If you win it, you should aspire to force a rules change.
Jeez, I know the zone is boring, but Boeheim is still around.
I just went even deeper and learned that (1) Bob Knight is still alive, (2) Larry Brown ('88 Kansas) is an assistant coach at University of Memphis, and (3) Tubby Smith coached last year.
Missed one earlier- new clutch player award named after famous winner Jerry West (I'm kidding! I get it).
Those guys both won too many when writers didn't know who else to vote for.
The Patrick Beverley Trophy for Guy Most Hated by Opposing Fans
LBJ and AD have no energy left to play overtime. They just jacked tired 3s with no energy left.
They have LBJ and AD, a few interesting guys, but zero depth after that really. They could be an interesting team if they make the playoffs with the right moves but they need to make the play-in tournament.
Horrible loss. Signs of life but at the end of the day, they are what their record says they are. 11-16.
It's true 'Most Improved' doesn't really fit Mikan since he was pretty much MVP immediately. I'm still happy they're honoring him, though, as he's kind of the forgotten star. The NBA also shafted him pretty good on his pension ($1,700 a month) as Mikan struggled with his medical bills. Shaq ended up paying for his funeral.
Mikan was also instrumental in bringing the 3-pointer to the game as ABA Commissioner. And more importantly, he introduced the red, white and blue ball.
This is the award that I most disagree with. Jerry West is already the LOGO. He doesn't need an award named after him.
If there's a desire to keep a balance of older stars and younger ones, the NBA could've moved Hakeem from DPOY to Clutch since he's perhaps the HOF player best known for raising his game when it mattered most, and named the DPOY after someone older. I particularly like that idea because the DPOY didn't exist until 1983, so it's an opportunity to recognize a standout defender who never could've gotten that recognition previously. Nate Thurmond and Bobby Jones would be a couple great options.
-Kevin Durant scoring title
-LeBron James award (PPG+RPG+APG)
-Stephen Curry award (most 3-pointers made)
Maybe they can keep going down the line:
-the Harden trophy (highest usage)
-the Stockton (assist leader)
-the KAT (most foul-outs)
(And yeah Curry is another good call.)
My main reaction to the top 20 or so is that LeBron is way too high.
Or the worst response to not getting a call - career award.
What! <whiny face> <shrug like motion> <start to saunter down the court> <by this time the other team has scored and play meets you about half court>
I am a simpleton who always gets confused by phrasing in rankings: he's 9th on their list, are you saying he should be somewhere 1-8 or 10-100? I'm guessing you mean 1-8.
Edit: clearer and less combative phrasing
I guess I haven't thought about it! Honestly I doubt I'd get below 10 before picking LeBron for a playoff run? But that's obviously a different topic than who is "making the biggest impact on the league right now."
1: tharris is way too high.
2: sam hinkie drafted more top 100 players (2) than brian collangelo (0).
What you say is true and also as someone who played for old coaches in the late 1980s, they always cited Mikan as the player who had improved most over his early career. By their take he was universally thought of as unplayable in his teens and even early twenties (despite scoring at DePaul) since he couldn't run the court or play defense and was so clumsy he could get pushed out of position. So he had a lingering reputation as an incredible improvement, even as his pro stats don't show that. I guess a very different player like Scottie Pippen would be a comp; he improved absurdly over college, but then arrived ready to star in the NBA.
cf. Luka Doncic, who really needs a supporting cast and I'm not sure how the Mavericks get one.
I always thought it meant "skim" or thereabouts.
I'm checking their season stats, they have trouble shooting (#26 in 3-pt%) and moving the ball (#25 in assists), and are middle of the pack everywhere else. Their two main deep threats, Van Vleet and Trent, are way off their career shooting numbers, so maybe some regression is coming.
Off the top of my head, and without splitting hairs aren't the following all obviously better:
Tatum
Giannis
Durant
Embiid
Zion
Morant
Jokic
Doncic
Curry
Davis
Shae
That's 11, and without considering Booker or Siakem or Harden or Lillard or take your pick of your next favourite. Is he better than Jimmy Butler?
I think you'd have to make a good argument to say he is a top 20 player. His true shooting is below average, he plays old man defense, etc. etc. Just using easily accessible stats from basketball reference he is 24th in PER, 22nd in VORP, 18th in BoxPM. Now I don't know any of those metrics from a hole in the ground, but are we sure Lebron is better than Haliburton or Mitchell? Is he better than Paul George?
They can't score in the half court and can't protect the rim. I think there's limits to how good this style of basketball can be.
The meaning has shifted over time. From the OED:
I think 48 of the "50 Greatest NBA Players" showed up in Cleveland circa 1997 for the All-Star Game.
the most stunning one, to me, was Mikan. I knew all about him - but I never imagined he was still alive, for some reason.
and agree that keeping his name out there is a positive, even if nits can be picked on which award.
Here are some other candidates for the MIP award who don't already have awards named after them and are clear HOF/inner circle types.
Karl Malone- was pretty pedestrian as a rookie, improved WS and PER for 5 straight seasons at the start of his career to become an MVP.
John Stockton- didn't become a regular starter until 4th season and was very pedestrian prior to that point.
Kevin Garnett- for some reason, he made the ASG his 2nd year, but stats probably didn't warrant it. PER improved for each of first 6 years. A lot of his improvement had to do with age and development, so maybe not the right guy for an award like this.
Steve Nash- first double-digit scoring average at age 26. First double-digit assist season (and MVP) at 30.
There are others who improved a lot but probably didn't get to the career value to warrant an award- Billups, Ben Wallace, Jimmy Butler, Payton, Pippen (to a lesser extent), Jokic.
It's probably all academic because this award should and probably will be named for Giannis at some point in the future.
(If you want to look at "what were they before they joined the league" - Giannis didn't make the all-star team in a Greek minor circuit, literally a semi-pro league.)
that's where i landed on naming it after mikan as well. weird call! but i get it.
I would be an advocate for an award that rewarded players who are ignored by traditional stats. So like, best screen setter/deflections/loose balls won kind of thing. Some kind of scrappy/coach's favorite award.
To me, the Lakers and Wolves are probably both better than a Curry-less Warriors? It will be interesting to see how the standings change.
Edit: Somebody joked on Twitter that Embiid got voter fatigue even though he's never won before, which is pretty funny (and possibly true?). But I think it's mostly that Philly is seen as having disappointed so far; if they can climb up to the top three or four in the East, that maybe changes.
The best/most valuable players are probably Jokic, Curry, and Luka in some order. All of those guys have team record issues or voter fatigue.
The guys who are likely to have the team record argument are Tatum and Morant.
Giannis has the "we all know he's the best player" argument, but his numbers are down and he has won it twice.
(though i'm not sure it's a defense of him!)
The Nets are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and Durant has been brilliant this year. I think it will go to Tatum if the Celtics win around 60 games but Durant would be my guess.
Embiid has already missed a lot of games.
The team is relatively healthy, which helps with spacing with Harris and Curry available. Simmons was unplayable at the start of the season, but aside from missing time with a leg injury, has looked like his old self of late.
Still, that flag will fly forever.
The Lakers' window has closed. The Clippers' window is maybe kinda sorta still open, but it's not looking great.
The Lakers did a better job of identifying the big moves. The 2020 Lakers were the best team in the NBA, and won a championship. They built a big lineup, that thrived off generating turnovers and rebounding on defense. The offense was mostly LeBron finding a way, and bully ball on the glass. They made a series of other moves that failed, whether due to controlling cost (Caruso) or making the wrong bet (THT and Russ).
The Clippers did a great job of making all the small decisions and leveraging the infinite pockets of Ballmer. However, they never really hit on the big decisions. They kept Doc for the first year. They built the team for playing 5 out and never had a great answer to Jokic or even DeAndre Ayton. They look to be at the end of their window now, and have gotten worse every single year.
To a certain extent, the team performance was driven by luck, but both teams were healthy in 2020 and both teams had one of the two guys out in 2021. Getting the big decision of the macro environment in 2020 right paid off.
To me, it is sort of an indictment of a certain kind of analysis that fetishizes small moves that seem smart. The Clippers made a bunch of small, smart moves and have gotten worse.
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