BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: 2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

I estimate there are maybe 10-12 Primates left on this site, and their fathers are all the District Attorney.

Hombre Brotani Posted: October 19, 2022 at 10:09 PM | 796 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: basketball, best shape of his life, nba, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 8 of 8 pages ‹ First < 6 7 8

701. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2022 at 09:38 AM (#6109147)

By the time the new contract kicks in, I suspect it will not look like an All-Star contract at all. He'll make a shade over $30m AAV. There are already about 40 guys making $30m+ for 22/23 and that will certainly go up by next year with other extensions kicking in and free agents getting bigger contracts. $30m at the midpoint of that contract is probably closer to being part of the starting core on a good team than All Star.

These are all fair points.

702. sardonic Posted: December 12, 2022 at 10:10 AM (#6109151)

With that, the Warriors are a weird team to try to pick up guys for. You are probably not going to find someone who can fit a closing lineup, because the boring old Warriors lineup is still great. So you want someone who can give an identity to the bench lineups, allow Poole to move off the ball, and fix your rebounding. Maybe that's Poetl? Maybe it's someone like Isaiah Stewart? Is Jarred Vanderbilt available? Is Lauri Markkanen available?

This. The Warriors starting/closing 5 already has the best net rating in the league, and they have the fundamentals of a ~50 win team despite punting a lot of minutes on developing Wiseman, Kuminga and Moody. The difference between this year and last year's team (which was destroying the league early in the season) is Otto Porter Jr. and GP2 (and luck in close games). I think the hope is that Donte DiVincenzo can approximate GP3's contribution (with more offense and less defense), and that seems to be panning out now that he's healthy and gotten some run.

OPJ type is harder -- Poetl, Stewart, Markkanen don't fit that archetype, and not sure why the Jazz would give up Vanderbilt. Scrolling through the top minutes played players in the league, it's not clear which veteran big wing who can shoot threes, defend and rebound is available.

And of course, the actual OPJ and GP2 have played a combined 8 games between them so far, so it's not like the actual Warriors this season would have been better off so far punting DDV, Wiseman and JaMychael Green to keep them.

Wiseman is looking the most lost out of the three lottery picks, but a few weeks ago that would have been Kuminga. In practice, the Warriors have gotten OPJ/GP2 type players off the scrap heap and by being an attractive organization to ring chase with or develop with, not by trading first round picks. This is probably an unpopular opinion but I'd probably still rather have a lottery ticket and play the buyout game to get that veteran big wing for this season's playoff run than chase a deal like Wiseman + 1-2 FRP for an OPJ type.

703. sardonic Posted: December 12, 2022 at 10:24 AM (#6109153)

What big wings are there even out there who could crack the Warriors rotation, are not already on a contender and also not on a rookie contract? Bojan Bogdanovic is making $18M a year on the Pistons, Kyle Anderson has 1 year and $9M left on his deal with the Wolves (are they a contender?). Bojan's on the last year of his deal, maybe he'd be a buyout candidate.

704. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:03 AM (#6109159)

The Wolves without slo-mo would be unwatchable. More unwatchable.

705. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:04 AM (#6109160)

I don't think Bojan is good. He's absolutely brutal on defense, and has a negative net rating on Detroit.

706. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:04 AM (#6109161)

My comment is a bit harsh, but I am crabby this morning.

707. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:30 AM (#6109165)

Poole is good, but he's struggled this year, was benched for parts of the playoffs last year, and my point is more just that he's a good player but not someone anywhere near the caliber of player you say "Well we can't push in our chips now and leave our cupboard bare for the Poole era!"

He's definitely not that caliber of player. He was really good in the playoffs last year on offense.

The Warriors want to be the Spurs, but there are a lot of headwinds:

1. Wiseman looks like a bust. He's more likely to be zero value than an all star.
2. Poole looks more like Tony Parker level of value as upside, not Tim Duncan level. That's a nice player, and could definitely be part of the next great Warrior's team, but finding hall of famers is hard.
3. That means that there's a choice. If you want to maximize titles in a 10 year window, you have to evaluate whether a 5% increase in your odds this year is worth paying for it down the road. If you think Kuminga could be your Kawhi, then it's not worth losing equity for years 5-10 to improve year one. If you think that there is no window from years 5-10, then it's always worth the trade.

I am probably more on the side that they need to make a deal.

708. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6109166)

My comment is a bit harsh, but I am crabby this morning.

They are appalling. Deeply unpleasant to watch.

709. Fourth True Outcome Posted: December 12, 2022 at 12:23 PM (#6109172)

Poole looks more like Tony Parker level of value as upside, not Tim Duncan level.

This is a correct and reasonable take, but also the idea of putting Poole next to Tim Duncan is deeply funny to me. The Little Fundamental!

710. sardonic Posted: December 12, 2022 at 12:39 PM (#6109178)

I'm not philosophically opposed to making a deal, but I guess I'm just not really sure what deals are out there that actually move the needle. I don't yet view Poole as a sure-thing future all star, but he should also be a positive value contract -- he's making Tyler Herro/Jalen Brunson/RJ Barrett money after all. I believe the Warriors also have their future first rounders, and I generally think there's probably someone who would take a flier on Wiseman even if he wouldn't generate a return.

If anything, the ruthless thing to do would be to get off Klay's contract while he's looking frisky, give those minutes to Poole, and then aggregate your remaining assets to get a real difference maker. But I don't think they'll do that.

711. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 12, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6109184)

The whole problem with the Warriors is that their system is so unique that there aren't very many players who fit.

They really need 2014 Andre Iguodala, and I have no ####### clue who is even close to that these days. There are better versions of that player who are unavailable (Jimmy Butler, Paul George), and worse versions of that player who are probably available and don't help that much (Kyle Anderson, Jalen McDaniels), but the right size version of that player isn't available.

Maybe Harrison Barnes? as hilarious as that would be.

712. sardonic Posted: December 12, 2022 at 01:29 PM (#6109189)

Ohh Barnes (The Black Falcon!) is a good pull, he's in the last year of his deal making $18M. Hard to see the Kings letting go of him though given how desperate they are to make the playoffs. The Ws don't have a lot of salary to match either, Wiseman is only on the books for $9M, then you have Looney at $7M, which only complicates this kind of deal.

713. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 12, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6109196)

They are appalling. Deeply unpleasant to watch.

There have been flashes of pretty good.

On the plus side, Dlo is playing so much better. Also, the team-wide effort level is not so dire as to make me want to kill people. There are signs that Rudy is starting to become acclimated and is playing better. Ant shows flashes in his game where you can still see the promised land. Their 2-pt shooting has been pretty good.

On the bad side, turnovers. Dear lord, they turn the ball over in a constant stream of dumb ways. Of all of their problems, one would hope this would be the most fixable. Hope. They foul too much, but that has been a problem for a while and is likely not going away - sadly. Their transition defense is dire. Their normal set defense is actually fine, but in transition, they are giving points away. Ant is still only showing flashes of the complete game he needs to take a major step up. The other young guys - especially Jaden and Jaylen - are not making the strides one would hope. And of course, KAT is injured. Sigh.

714. jmurph Posted: December 12, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6109198)

Crowder would probably fit well on the Warriors (as he would on a lot of teams to be fair), though he's obviously not the 2014 Iguodala prototype. Phoenix would probably not be super eager to help out a direct conference rival, though.

715. Spivey Posted: December 12, 2022 at 02:12 PM (#6109203)

It'd make them even smaller, but Alex Caruso could be really good on the Warriors, depending on where the Bulls want to go. Caruso would be great on every good team, but most of those teams are so pick and young player strapped they can't put together an offer better than like Wiseman + a FRP.

Caruso is feisty so can guard up.

716. DCA Posted: December 12, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6109214)

Caruso is a little smaller but he's probably the best comp to 2014-15 Iguodala in the league right now. Certainly the best comp who is theoretically available for GSW to add, and I think Wiseman + a first is an offer that would interest the Bulls if they decide to make a move.

717. sardonic Posted: December 12, 2022 at 03:47 PM (#6109221)

Caruso's not bad either, especially if they get an injury in the guard rotation. Someone bigger to fill the role currently occupied poorly by JaMychal Green would be a better fit for their needs though. Or even just JMG starting to play better.

718. asinwreck Posted: December 12, 2022 at 06:19 PM (#6109260)

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
ESPN Sources: Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham – the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft – plans to have season-ending surgery on his left shin. Cunningham is expected to make a full recovery ahead of training camp in 2023-2024.

719. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 12, 2022 at 07:33 PM (#6109279)

Texas men's basketball coach Chris Beard was arrested Monday morning on a felony domestic violence charge.

Beard, 49, was arrested by police in Austin, Texas, and booked at 4:18 a.m. CDT on a third-degree charge of "assault of a family/household member, impede breath circulation," or strangulation.
[...]
Texas, ranked seventh overall in the Associated Press poll, is 7-1 and off to its best start in years.

720. Spivey Posted: December 12, 2022 at 09:37 PM (#6109295)

As a Longhorn alum and casual fan, I think I'll be done with the university if they don't fire him, and hope this whole suspension thing is just to get their ducks in a row for any lawsuit/him trying to claim moneys when he's fired.

721. smileyy Posted: December 12, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6109298)

Beard better not last the week.

722. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:22 PM (#6109300)

Anwar Richardson @AnwarRichardson
Here is the official arrest report for Texas men's basketball coach Chris Beard (I removed the victim's name)
https://twitter.com/AnwarRichardson/status/1602441327643594752

[victim] was asked if the verbal altercation had turned physical at point, to which they replied "yes, 'he just snapped on me and became super violent. [...]He choked me, threw me off the bed, bit me, bruises all over my leg, throwing me around and going nuts'"
[...]
"[victim] stated that [beard] placed an arm around her neck" while he was behind her.
[...]
"I could not breathe for like 5 seconds".
[...]
"I could not move or do anything at all".

723. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 12, 2022 at 11:26 PM (#6109302)

a history of domestic violence and aggression toward women is a remarkably common theme in the lives of men who become mass shooters
[...]
Strangulation [...] is a particularly well-established predictor of later acts of violence. Women who have been strangled in the past by their partners are seven times likelier than other women to later become murder victims[...] Most states have made strangulation a felony-level offense within the last decade

724. aberg Posted: December 13, 2022 at 06:29 AM (#6109308)

I was always very impressed with Beard's teams and thought he had an argument for being the best cbb coach in the country over the last several years. I never knew or heard anything about him off the court, but now I'm hoping he never coaches anywhere again and spends a long time in prison.

725. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 13, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6109326)

being the best cbb coach in the country

Interesting question since a lot of the perennial candidates (Roy Williams, Jay Wright, Coach K) have retired. At a glance, I think Tony Bennett, Scott Drew, Bill Self, and Calipari are the only active coaches with titles. Drew is near the top of the list. Self and Calipari have probably underachieved vs expected titles (my guess it that's true with nearly every powerhouse coach). Bennett gets results, but isn't the most innovative guy. The best coach is probably someone who can do more with less, like Alabama's Nate Oates.

726. Harlond Posted: December 13, 2022 at 12:19 PM (#6109340)

Oates apparently has signed his fourth straight top 15 recruiting class. I don’t know how many of those classes included 5-star recruits, but IIRC Bennett has never had a 5-star recruit and never had 4 straight top 15 recruiting classes. I wouldn’t argue the innovation point, but I’d say he has a good argument on the doing more with less score. Full disclosure: UVA alum whose first ACC basketball game included Gus Gerard and Barry Parkhill.

727. jmurph Posted: December 13, 2022 at 01:23 PM (#6109351)

In addition to the Jordan Trophy (MVP), the other renamed awards are:

The Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy for Defensive Player of the Year

The Wilt Chamberlain Trophy for Rookie of the Year

The John Havlicek Trophy for Sixth Man of the Year

The George Mikan Trophy for Most Improved Player

Alright what say you NBA thread? I loved Hakeem and am game for any reason to celebrate him but I think that should be Tim Duncan.

EDIT: Ha, I have discovered on BBRef that Duncan never won a DPOY, which is just incredible. So I guess Hakeem it is!

728. asinwreck Posted: December 13, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6109353)

Rick Pitino is at Iona, if we're counting active coaches who have won NCAA titles.

I love that MIP is named after Mikan. If you win it, you should aspire to force a rules change.

729. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 13, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6109357)

I think Tony Bennett, Scott Drew, Bill Self, and Calipari are the only active coaches with titles.

Rick Pitino is at Iona, if we're counting active coaches who have won NCAA titles.

Jeez, I know the zone is boring, but Boeheim is still around.

730. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 13, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6109387)

Didn't know Pitino was still coaching, and to be honest I only went back 20 years, so missed Boeheim and Tom Izzo.

I just went even deeper and learned that (1) Bob Knight is still alive, (2) Larry Brown ('88 Kansas) is an assistant coach at University of Memphis, and (3) Tubby Smith coached last year.

731. jmurph Posted: December 13, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6109389)

In addition to the Jordan Trophy (MVP), the other renamed awards are:

The Hakeem Olajuwon Trophy for Defensive Player of the Year

The Wilt Chamberlain Trophy for Rookie of the Year

The John Havlicek Trophy for Sixth Man of the Year

The George Mikan Trophy for Most Improved Player

Missed one earlier- new clutch player award named after famous winner Jerry West (I'm kidding! I get it).

732. asinwreck Posted: December 13, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6109393)

Brown just stepped away from Memphis due to an ongoing health issue.

733. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 13, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6109395)

They should name DPOY after Mutombo and 6 moy after Jamal Crawford.

Those guys both won too many when writers didn't know who else to vote for.

734. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 13, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6109404)

I think naming opens up the opportunity for more awards!

The Patrick Beverley Trophy for Guy Most Hated by Opposing Fans

735. Spivey Posted: December 13, 2022 at 04:21 PM (#6109405)

Mutombo winning 4 DPOYs with a prime that mostly overlapped I think the best 2 defensive centers since Bill Russell (Robinson, Olajuwon) is ridiculous imo. He has more DPOYs than the 2 of them combined. Kia!!!!

736. Spivey Posted: December 13, 2022 at 04:23 PM (#6109407)

Ginobili started more than I remembered, but he should have won like 8 6MOY. He was like a top 15-20 player who was just mostly playing off the bench.

737. Moeball Posted: December 13, 2022 at 06:08 PM (#6109424)

#727 Because Wilt peaked his rookie season and it was all downhill from there, right?

738. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 14, 2022 at 12:30 AM (#6109449)

God, the Lakers suck. They build an improbable lead against the Celtics, who end the game with a 17-4 run which forces overtime. AD misses two free throws late which allowed Tatum to hit a jumper to tie the game. They are almost certainly going to lose in OT.

LBJ and AD have no energy left to play overtime. They just jacked tired 3s with no energy left.

They have LBJ and AD, a few interesting guys, but zero depth after that really. They could be an interesting team if they make the playoffs with the right moves but they need to make the play-in tournament.

Horrible loss. Signs of life but at the end of the day, they are what their record says they are. 11-16.

739. aberg Posted: December 14, 2022 at 03:23 AM (#6109453)

The clutch player award is going to be such a cesspool of hot takes. I generally like the idea of naming the awards for players, though. The Mikan one is the only one that doesn't make any sense at all.

740. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 14, 2022 at 09:11 AM (#6109462)

No Paul Moskeski award?

741. Mike A Posted: December 14, 2022 at 09:58 AM (#6109466)

Way back when, when Clyde Frazier was announcing for the Hawks, they were playing the Bucks and seven-footer Mokeski. Mokeski got mad at something and slapped the backboard. Without missing a beat Clyde goes: 'I didn't think he could get up that high.'

It's true 'Most Improved' doesn't really fit Mikan since he was pretty much MVP immediately. I'm still happy they're honoring him, though, as he's kind of the forgotten star. The NBA also shafted him pretty good on his pension ($1,700 a month) as Mikan struggled with his medical bills. Shaq ended up paying for his funeral.

Mikan was also instrumental in bringing the 3-pointer to the game as ABA Commissioner. And more importantly, he introduced the red, white and blue ball.

742. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 14, 2022 at 10:24 AM (#6109471)

Missed one earlier- new clutch player award named after famous winner Jerry West (I'm kidding! I get it).

This is the award that I most disagree with. Jerry West is already the LOGO. He doesn't need an award named after him.

If there's a desire to keep a balance of older stars and younger ones, the NBA could've moved Hakeem from DPOY to Clutch since he's perhaps the HOF player best known for raising his game when it mattered most, and named the DPOY after someone older. I particularly like that idea because the DPOY didn't exist until 1983, so it's an opportunity to recognize a standout defender who never could've gotten that recognition previously. Nate Thurmond and Bobby Jones would be a couple great options.

743. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2022 at 10:34 AM (#6109473)

I think it's fine in general to name them after players. But I think the tricky thing is (I've seen this online, not an original take but I agree with it), now what do you do when LeBron retires? Do you keep adding awards, do you bump someone else (which will unnecessarily insult fans/teammates/family members)?

744. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 14, 2022 at 11:04 AM (#6109478)

jmurph, I was thinking the same thing. LeBron, Curry, and KD are going to retire as ~top-15 players. Naming things after players is cool, but it opens a can of worms about who's being slighted. Unless they start naming statistical leaders:

-Kevin Durant scoring title
-LeBron James award (PPG+RPG+APG)
-Stephen Curry award (most 3-pointers made)

Maybe they can keep going down the line:

-the Harden trophy (highest usage)
-the Stockton (assist leader)
-the KAT (most foul-outs)

745. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6109482)

Right, and maybe the NBA doesn't care, more people talking and engaging about these things is good I guess? But it seems like there will be some inevitable issues, guys feeling slighted, etc.

(And yeah Curry is another good call.)

746. PJ Martinez Posted: December 14, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6109484)

Argument fodder: The Ringer’s Top 100 Players in the NBA, "a year-round, around-the-clock ranking of the players making the biggest impact on the league right now."

My main reaction to the top 20 or so is that LeBron is way too high.

747. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 14, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6109485)

-the KAT (most foul-outs)

Or the worst response to not getting a call - career award.

What! <whiny face> <shrug like motion> <start to saunter down the court> <by this time the other team has scored and play meets you about half court>

748. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6109486)

My main reaction to the top 20 or so is that LeBron is way too high.

I am a simpleton who always gets confused by phrasing in rankings: he's 9th on their list, are you saying he should be somewhere 1-8 or 10-100? I'm guessing you mean 1-8.

749. PJ Martinez Posted: December 14, 2022 at 12:02 PM (#6109488)

I think he should be significantly lower than 8 — I do not think he's playing like a top 10 guys this year. Is this a hot take?

Edit: clearer and less combative phrasing

750. jmurph Posted: December 14, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6109492)

I think he should be significantly lower than 8. Is this a hot take?

I guess I haven't thought about it! Honestly I doubt I'd get below 10 before picking LeBron for a playoff run? But that's obviously a different topic than who is "making the biggest impact on the league right now."

751. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 14, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6109498)

Argument fodder: The Ringer’s Top 100 Players in the NBA, "a year-round, around-the-clock ranking of the players making the biggest impact on the league right now."

My main reaction to the top 20 or so is that LeBron is way too high.

2 thoughts:

1: tharris is way too high.
2: sam hinkie drafted more top 100 players (2) than brian collangelo (0).

752. GregD Posted: December 14, 2022 at 01:22 PM (#6109504)

It's true 'Most Improved' doesn't really fit Mikan since he was pretty much MVP immediately. I'm still happy they're honoring him, though, as he's kind of the forgotten star. The NBA also shafted him pretty good on his pension ($1,700 a month) as Mikan struggled with his medical bills. Shaq ended up paying for his funeral.

What you say is true and also as someone who played for old coaches in the late 1980s, they always cited Mikan as the player who had improved most over his early career. By their take he was universally thought of as unplayable in his teens and even early twenties (despite scoring at DePaul) since he couldn't run the court or play defense and was so clumsy he could get pushed out of position. So he had a lingering reputation as an incredible improvement, even as his pro stats don't show that. I guess a very different player like Scottie Pippen would be a comp; he improved absurdly over college, but then arrived ready to star in the NBA.

753. smileyy Posted: December 14, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6109508)

Peak LeBron would be able to carry a team of borderline NBA player like the Lakers roster (sans Anthony Davis) to the playoffs, thus preventing his teams from getting any sort of high draft pick. I'm thinking a top 2 or 3 player would/should be able to do that, though that will vary from year-to-year / generation-to-generation.

cf. Luka Doncic, who really needs a supporting cast and I'm not sure how the Mavericks get one.

754. smileyy Posted: December 14, 2022 at 01:48 PM (#6109509)

That said, 8 (now 9) feels kind of about right. I think Luka is underrated -- I'd put him at 2 ahead of Curry and Jokic.

755. smileyy Posted: December 14, 2022 at 01:50 PM (#6109510)

Nitpick with their terminology: Did you know that "peruse" means "to read very closely and in detail". It should be synonymous with "Deep Dive"!

I always thought it meant "skim" or thereabouts.

756. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 14, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6109525)

My podcast diet has lately been bemoaning Toronto's perceived underperformance this season. I think the optimism was that (a) they were deep, (b) they could play defense, and (c) Siakam had improved to the point where he was a reasonable #1 option. I'd add (d) a well-respected coach.

I'm checking their season stats, they have trouble shooting (#26 in 3-pt%) and moving the ball (#25 in assists), and are middle of the pack everywhere else. Their two main deep threats, Van Vleet and Trent, are way off their career shooting numbers, so maybe some regression is coming.

757. Gaelan Posted: December 14, 2022 at 03:47 PM (#6109530)

Lebron can't possibly be a top ten player right now, can he?

Off the top of my head, and without splitting hairs aren't the following all obviously better:

Tatum
Giannis
Durant
Embiid
Zion
Morant
Jokic
Doncic
Curry
Davis
Shae

That's 11, and without considering Booker or Siakem or Harden or Lillard or take your pick of your next favourite. Is he better than Jimmy Butler?

I think you'd have to make a good argument to say he is a top 20 player. His true shooting is below average, he plays old man defense, etc. etc. Just using easily accessible stats from basketball reference he is 24th in PER, 22nd in VORP, 18th in BoxPM. Now I don't know any of those metrics from a hole in the ground, but are we sure Lebron is better than Haliburton or Mitchell? Is he better than Paul George?

758. Spivey Posted: December 14, 2022 at 03:56 PM (#6109531)

Toronto: With some of the injuries, they actually haven't been that deep. I think they should be a bit better, but I think there's a case of maybe too high expectations because people like the style/players/coach/city. In hindsight it's not unreasonable that we see Siakam, FVV, and Barnes all regress a bit. The first two I think had career years, and Barnes scored more efficiently than he did in college. Anyways, they're slightly positive on SRS/Net Rating, which should put them about 42-45 wins? I think their Vegas line was 45.5 to 46.5. I think it's more a case of unrealistic expectations than anything else.

They can't score in the half court and can't protect the rim. I think there's limits to how good this style of basketball can be.

759. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 14, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6109537)

smileyy:

The meaning has shifted over time. From the OED:

To examine in detail; to scrutinize, inspect, survey, oversee; to consider, to take heed of. Now also (influenced by sense 4c): to look over briefly or superficially; to browse.

760. smileyy Posted: December 14, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6109549)

[759] TIL! Love it when language evolves so a word means the opposite of what it originally meant.

761. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 14, 2022 at 07:57 PM (#6109561)

[759] TIL! Love it when language evolves so a word means the opposite of what it originally meant.

that's, literally, a quintessentially inflammable take.

762. Spivey Posted: December 14, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6109564)

Orlando Magic scored 50 points in the first quarter against Atlanta.

763. Howie Menckel Posted: December 14, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6109567)

It's true 'Most Improved' doesn't really fit Mikan since he was pretty much MVP immediately. I'm still happy they're honoring him, though, as he's kind of the forgotten star.

I think 48 of the "50 Greatest NBA Players" showed up in Cleveland circa 1997 for the All-Star Game.

the most stunning one, to me, was Mikan. I knew all about him - but I never imagined he was still alive, for some reason.
and agree that keeping his name out there is a positive, even if nits can be picked on which award.

764. Mike A Posted: December 14, 2022 at 09:19 PM (#6109571)

...they always cited Mikan as the player who had improved most over his early career. By their take he was universally thought of as unplayable in his teens and even early twenties (despite scoring at DePaul) since he couldn't run the court or play defense and was so clumsy he could get pushed out of position. So he had a lingering reputation as an incredible improvement, even as his pro stats don't show that.

Good point. Mikan was considered too tall(!) and too uncoordinated to play serious basketball. But newly hired DePaul coach Rey Meyer saw something in him, and they worked extremely hard to develop his game. Within a year or so, he became the best player in the country. So, yeah, I can buy the Most Improved Award being named after George.

765. Spivey Posted: December 14, 2022 at 09:40 PM (#6109574)

Wait a second, the Brooklyn Nets have the 7th best record in the NBA now??

766. aberg Posted: December 15, 2022 at 05:16 AM (#6109586)

What you say is true and also as someone who played for old coaches in the late 1980s, they always cited Mikan as the player who had improved most over his early career. By their take he was universally thought of as unplayable in his teens and even early twenties (despite scoring at DePaul) since he couldn't run the court or play defense and was so clumsy he could get pushed out of position. So he had a lingering reputation as an incredible improvement, even as his pro stats don't show that. I guess a very different player like Scottie Pippen would be a comp; he improved absurdly over college, but then arrived ready to star in the NBA.

Here are some other candidates for the MIP award who don't already have awards named after them and are clear HOF/inner circle types.

Karl Malone- was pretty pedestrian as a rookie, improved WS and PER for 5 straight seasons at the start of his career to become an MVP.
John Stockton- didn't become a regular starter until 4th season and was very pedestrian prior to that point.
Kevin Garnett- for some reason, he made the ASG his 2nd year, but stats probably didn't warrant it. PER improved for each of first 6 years. A lot of his improvement had to do with age and development, so maybe not the right guy for an award like this.
Steve Nash- first double-digit scoring average at age 26. First double-digit assist season (and MVP) at 30.

There are others who improved a lot but probably didn't get to the career value to warrant an award- Billups, Ben Wallace, Jimmy Butler, Payton, Pippen (to a lesser extent), Jokic.

It's probably all academic because this award should and probably will be named for Giannis at some point in the future.

767. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2022 at 07:51 AM (#6109587)

So Kawhi has played in 3 straight, and 5 of the last 6, only missing the second end of a back to back in that stretch. Hopefully this means he's back (ish, for now).

768. Spivey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 09:55 AM (#6109594)

Tieing the last two posts together, Kawhi is probably the best MIP case in NBA history. Went from toolsy wing to best 3&D player in the NBA to allstar to MVP level player. I don't think a player has ever improved like him in NBA history.

769. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:32 AM (#6109610)

Giannis has improved more than any other player I've ever seen.

770. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6109611)

Giannis has improved more than any other player I've ever seen.

his FT% is lower than the shitty MFer's.

771. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:45 AM (#6109612)

Yeah but if Giannis ever solves the FT thing it's going to be curtains. Right now you can at least bail yourself out with a foul when necessary.

772. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:48 AM (#6109614)

He was quite a bit worse than Leonard upon entering the league and has reached higher highs (and had more career bulk).

(If you want to look at "what were they before they joined the league" - Giannis didn't make the all-star team in a Greek minor circuit, literally a semi-pro league.)

773. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 15, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6109616)

"and agree that keeping his name out there is a positive, even if nits can be picked on which award."
that's where i landed on naming it after mikan as well. weird call! but i get it.

774. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 15, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6109625)

I think they should get rid of MIP because it is a garbage award, but if they keep it, naming it after Mikan is more good than bad.

I would be an advocate for an award that rewarded players who are ignored by traditional stats. So like, best screen setter/deflections/loose balls won kind of thing. Some kind of scrappy/coach's favorite award.

775. asinwreck Posted: December 15, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6109640)

Ugh.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Golden State's Steph Curry is expected to miss "a few weeks" with his left shoulder injury, sources tell ESPN.

776. jmurph Posted: December 15, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6109655)

Anthony Slater @anthonyVslater
Prevailing sense is the Steph Curry absence will land somewhere around 3-4 weeks. Warriors have 10-12 games in that timeframe.

To me, the Lakers and Wolves are probably both better than a Curry-less Warriors? It will be interesting to see how the standings change.

777. Spivey Posted: December 15, 2022 at 08:56 PM (#6109667)

Bucks look so bad tonight. Absolutely no fight or defense in the paint with Lopez out of the game right now. Middleton has been trash since coming back from injury, and Giannis still can't initiate a top level offense.

778. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: December 15, 2022 at 09:53 PM (#6109679)

the george mikan award is two years away from being two years away from having its name changed to the bruno caboclo award.

779. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 16, 2022 at 09:15 AM (#6109704)

Man, it'll really be sink or swim for the Warriors' young guys now. Bummer about Steph.

780. PJ Martinez Posted: December 16, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6109724)

The results of this ESPN straw poll on the MVP race are more or less what I would have expected, though Giannis is a stronger consensus for no. 2 than I might have guessed (I've been imagining that, if current trends more or less continue, it will come down to Tatum and Doncic, i.e., the two guys who haven't won it before).

781. Spivey Posted: December 16, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6109727)

Bucks have a good record, but Giannis really hasn't been at near the level he was at the 3 previous seasons. Efficiency way down, assists down, turnovers up. He might be the best player, but he ain't having the best season.

782. PJ Martinez Posted: December 16, 2022 at 12:09 PM (#6109731)

Yeah, I think that's what surprising about it. Also, when I say "the two guys who haven't won it before" above — obviously Embiid, Morant, Williamson, and Booker haven't won it before, either. But my suspicion is that it will come down to a "best player on the best team" guy (which currently looks to be Tatum) and a "best numbers from someone who has not previously won an MVP" guy, which I had thought will be Doncic — though there are seemingly some bad vibes in Dallas, which might sink his chances. Embiid could maybe seize the latter mantle.

Edit: Somebody joked on Twitter that Embiid got voter fatigue even though he's never won before, which is pretty funny (and possibly true?). But I think it's mostly that Philly is seen as having disappointed so far; if they can climb up to the top three or four in the East, that maybe changes.

783. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 16, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6109748)

It's a weird year for MVP.

The best/most valuable players are probably Jokic, Curry, and Luka in some order. All of those guys have team record issues or voter fatigue.

The guys who are likely to have the team record argument are Tatum and Morant.

Giannis has the "we all know he's the best player" argument, but his numbers are down and he has won it twice.

784. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6109755)

Here's a thing that's weird: Trae Young is a 34.9% career 3 point shooter.

785. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 16, 2022 at 03:46 PM (#6109772)

he shoots a lot of stupid #### and is having a rough year

786. jmurph Posted: December 16, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6109779)

Yeah I feel like the "but he takes so many bad shots!" defense has lost its luster a bit.

787. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: December 16, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6109790)

yup
(though i'm not sure it's a defense of him!)

788. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 16, 2022 at 11:16 PM (#6109834)

I have never seen a pass fake like this before.

789. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 17, 2022 at 01:16 AM (#6109839)

The best/most valuable players are probably Jokic, Curry, and Luka in some order. All of those guys have team record issues or voter fatigue.

The Nets are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and Durant has been brilliant this year. I think it will go to Tatum if the Celtics win around 60 games but Durant would be my guess.

Embiid has already missed a lot of games.

790. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 17, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6109879)

Is Jacque Vaughn having them run anything different or are the players just playing harder/better under him?

791. asinwreck Posted: December 17, 2022 at 02:44 PM (#6109884)

Team defense is considerably improved, especially in games where Nic Claxton isn't in early foul trouble. Vaughn has spoken about prioritizing defense. He also, a couple weeks back. immediately called timeout and pulled Kyrie after Kyrie blew off a called play. Kyrie regularly ignored Nash's plays, so that's new.

The team is relatively healthy, which helps with spacing with Harris and Curry available. Simmons was unplayable at the start of the season, but aside from missing time with a leg injury, has looked like his old self of late.

792. asinwreck Posted: December 18, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6110022)

Pretty awful week in the West for star players.

Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Los Angeles Lakers star Anthony Davis is expected to miss at least one month after suffering a right foot injury, multiple sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.

793. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 18, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6110059)

Yeah, the Lakers aren't making the play-in tournament.

794. smileyy Posted: December 18, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6110069)

The glass in the glass cannon that is the Lakers is certainly breaking a lot. Which shouldn't be surprising given Anthony Davis, and the miles on LeBron. It is too bad though. Gone are the days where LeBron would have been able to carry a team of fringe-NBA players to a playoffs.

Still, that flag will fly forever.

795. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: December 18, 2022 at 04:18 PM (#6110073)

I think the difference between the Lakers and the Clippers is instructive.

The Lakers' window has closed. The Clippers' window is maybe kinda sorta still open, but it's not looking great.

The Lakers did a better job of identifying the big moves. The 2020 Lakers were the best team in the NBA, and won a championship. They built a big lineup, that thrived off generating turnovers and rebounding on defense. The offense was mostly LeBron finding a way, and bully ball on the glass. They made a series of other moves that failed, whether due to controlling cost (Caruso) or making the wrong bet (THT and Russ).

The Clippers did a great job of making all the small decisions and leveraging the infinite pockets of Ballmer. However, they never really hit on the big decisions. They kept Doc for the first year. They built the team for playing 5 out and never had a great answer to Jokic or even DeAndre Ayton. They look to be at the end of their window now, and have gotten worse every single year.

To a certain extent, the team performance was driven by luck, but both teams were healthy in 2020 and both teams had one of the two guys out in 2021. Getting the big decision of the macro environment in 2020 right paid off.

To me, it is sort of an indictment of a certain kind of analysis that fetishizes small moves that seem smart. The Clippers made a bunch of small, smart moves and have gotten worse.

796. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: December 18, 2022 at 08:58 PM (#6110094)

The KNICKS.

Page 8 of 8 pages ‹ First < 6 7 8

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Wednesday, October 19, 2022

2022-23 NBA Kick-Off Thread

Reader Comments and Retorts

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

Hot Topics