flip

I'm back to avoiding work, so tried looking at bum/disappointing teams for trade season fodder and didn't come up with much. Feels like it might be an uninteresting trade season.

Brooklyn: I think they're dangerous. They're still a very unreliable team, but they can beat anyone in a series when Durant and Kyrie are playing like this. Their SRS/Net Rating are legit now. Last year, even when doing well it was mostly with 3pt variance luck and winning close games.

Golden State: I legitimately thought they weren't going to make the playoffs. Ripping off 5 straight wins without Curry has been impressive.

Dumb thing I just noticed looking at the standings: the Cavs have played 6 OT games this year, which is tied with New Orleans for the most, and are 6-0 in said games. The Pacers are the only team with no OT games; 5 teams (heavily concentrated amongst the West also-rans) have played a single OT game.

the Cavs have played 6 OT games this year, which is tied with New Orleans for the most, and are 6-0 in said games

What's wild is that, despite this, they seem to have a (slightly) worse record overall than their underlying numbers would suggest (Basketball Reference gives Cleveland the best "expected won-loss" in the league, essentially tied with Boston).

I'm back to avoiding work, so tried looking at bum/disappointing teams for trade season fodder and didn't come up with much. Feels like it might be an uninteresting trade season.

I think the teams in the 9-12 slots in the East (ATL, WAS, CHI, TOR) are the ones to watch. Each one had relatively high hopes entering the year but now finds itself with a losing record. Maybe a couple of them pivot and become sellers, sensing that there are way more buyers than sellers and it's an opportunity to jumpstart a rebuild.

Has the top half of the league ever been this tightly bunched by SRS? No one is above 5. There are 10 teams in the 2-5 SRS range, and that doesn't even include the team with the best record in the West or the defending champs.

Has the top half of the league ever been this tightly bunched by SRS? No one is above 5.

Not sure, but this tweet caught my eye a couple of weeks ago:

The Boston Celtics net rating is a league leading +6.5.

If it held, that'd be the lowest mark from a league leader since the Celtics (+6) in 1987-88.

Lowest mark in 35 years.

The league leader is now Cleveland, all the way down at +5.4. Last year that would have been 6th in the league.

I think that's why this year feels so weird. Every good team is basically at a fake contender level, like Miami last year. Further exacerbating that, a lot of the teams that are at that fake contender level have a ton of question marks.

For Cleveland and the Pelicans, they haven't been late in the playoffs before.
For Brooklyn, it's the whole Kyrie headcase thing.
The 76ers have questions about Harden in the playoffs.
etc.

The league leader is now Cleveland, all the way down at +5.4. Last year that would have been 6th in the league.

And that's comparing to last year, which itself was a high parity year (Celtics led at +7).

The heart of this basically seems to be that there are a lot of heliocentric superstars to go around. Like, you typically need a top 3 player in the NBA at minimum to win a chip, but there are probably 10 or so players with a case for "top 3 player in the NBA". In this case, you'd think the one with the best sidekick would win, but the only teams I see with a case for "star and another top 20 player" are the Lakers, Nets, and Sixers, all of whose stars have big injury concerns. (Maybe the Warriors, but that doesn't invalidate the clause.) The Nets are the only team that clearly has a player in the very top tier and a player in the second tier, which is probably why Vegas (proxying public opinion) has always been so high on them both last year and this.

Per Pinnacle the current title odds are

+370 Boston
+624 Milwaukee
+685 Brooklyn
+900 Clippers
+999 Golden State

+370 seems like a slightly longer-shot compared to other season's favorites at a similar time, even in the post-KD/Warriors NBA. Not sure how many teams are in the "so you're telling me there's a chance" range compared to other seasons, but also would suspect that's higher than ever as well. As I bet +624 is a longer shot for the second place team as well. I haven't looked close enough to be sure on that one.

That list makes me think Denver is undervalued. Surely they have to be higher than the Clippers?

Denver look really good. If they can have a reasonably good Murray by the post-season I think they're clearly the best team in the West.

6:12 left in the 1st quarter, it's Bucks 7 - Raptors 0. Incredible stuff.

Siakam going to the line at 5:12 with a chance to put them on the board.

EDIT: He did it! Raptors legend. Annnnnd promptly missed the 2nd.

Denver was 6th favorite at like +1250.

Who I like there, I dunno. I sort of do like the Clippers. I'll just go with the deep roster/good coach/moneybags owner/theoretical superstars combo, even though the theoretical there should probably be in bold and all caps and is the most important part of the equation.

I guess my thing with the Clippers is that if you think that the Warriors are a contender in the West (and I am not at all sure about that), then the Clippers have a bad matchup against both Denver and the Warriors.

So even if you hypothetically would favor the Clippers against the Bucks, Nets or Celtics, the fact that they have bad matchups against the West should push them down IMO.

I ####### hate the Bucks right now.

After giving up 71 to Donovan Mitchell in a crushing loss where they led almost all the way, the Bulls respond by snapping the Nets' winning streak. This, despite sometimes guarding Kevin Durant with Coby White.

I love Kyle Anderson. That is all.

Warriors got swept by Detroit this season.

Damn that's embarrassing. Inexcusable.

I ####### hate the Bucks right now.

They are not a lot of fun to watch, that's for sure. I think they need to make some moves honestly.

I think the Bucks are fine as long as Khris isn't dinged up all year. If he is then they're not going to win a championship, and there's not a move out there that would fix that.

Bucks: It's possible Middleton comes back and is good, but not all-star good. He's at the age and missed the time where all-star caliber play may be behind him. They should have been planning for this for a couple of years, and I don't feel like they have been. Maybe if Divincenzo had stayed healthy some of this is different, but he didn't, and it isn't. Of course it's hard to say what they should have done, though I guess I'd have started by giving MLE deals to guys who aren't Ingles and George Hill, but whose Bird rights you may want.

Even with Middleton, their half-court offense against focused defense has always been mediocre, just barely good enough to be a title contender. They could use more guys who can dribble and pass. If they can get Alec Burks without giving up a FRP, I'd be looking to do something around that. He's not a difference maker on offense, but he's a good all around player, which they lack.

Outside of that, it's a bit hard to tell who is actually available. FVV for matching salary, a FRP, and Beauchamp - if Toronto wants to pivot to tank for Wemby. That'd be interesting. Jrue and Jevon Carter are more 2 guards on offense anyways.

The Lakers beat the Heat despite LBJ, AD, and Lonnie Walker not playing. That's shocking.

Here are the projected standings, which I made using an average of the 538 projections and teamrankings.com projections:

55 Celtics
52 Nets
51 Bucks
51 Cavs
50 Sixers
44 Knicks
--
42 Heat
40 Pacers
40 Hawks
39 Raptors
--
39 Wizards
38 Bulls
27 Magic
25 Hornets
25 Pistons

54 Grizzlies
51 Nuggets
50 Pelicans
48 Mavericks
46 Suns
43 Warriors
--
43 Clippers
42 Kings
42 Blazers
41 Jazz
---
39 Wolves
38 Lakers
33 Thunder
24 Spurs
22 Rockets

So if you finish at the top of the West, maybe you draw the Warriors in the first round, or maybe the Clippers, or maybe the Kings. Feels like that's a real big difference and a good chance that the standings order won't reflect the team strength order. Which I'm sure happens a lot but this feels like that on another level. Hopefully in the future they let the top seeds picks their opponents. I'd love that. All the narratives and drama and disrespect talk.

An All LA play-in game would be something else.

East seems pretty straight forward, but I know things can change drastically. Celtics were 18-19 on this date a year ago.

Pete Philo, a former NBA scout and pioneering foreign talent evaluator, has been arrested for alleged sex offenses. Again.
[...]
The assault in the day spa came mere months after Philo, a resident of Union County, N.C., got his name removed from the North Carolina Sex Offender and Public Protection Registry, a database for known sex offenders. He was on that state’s registry, as well as offender registries in New York and Texas, for raping and impregnating a 15-year-old girl in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., at a boarding school where he worked as a counselor. After a bizarrely brief jail sentence for those crimes, he jumped right into a long career in NBA front offices.
[...]
He expressed no remorse for his victim and lied about what he’d done even when it was obvious to me he knew that I knew that he was lying.
[...]
Philo began bringing her to his off-campus apartment for sex. She told me she quickly became aware of “three other girls'” at the Charlton School who he’d also sexually abused.

“He’s a routine pedophile,” she said.
[...]
Philo has told interviewers that his big break came when he befriended Mavs executive Donnie Nelson, who was elevated from assistant general manager to president of basketball operations in 2002. Nelson hired Philo as a scout and leaned on his experience playing in Europe.
[...]
Philo went on to hold positions in three NBA front offices from the early 2000s to 2016,
[...]
A 2015 story in the New York Times credited Philo with the founding of Eurocamp, a gathering for European talent in Treviso, Italy “that became, for international prospects, the equivalent of the NBA combine.”
[...]
In 2013, Indiana Pacers beat reporter Chris Goff told SB Nation that Larry Bird, newly installed as president of basketball operations for the franchise, created the position of director of international scouting so he could bring on Philo
[...]
Philo remains on the sex offender registry in Texas, where the age of his 1999 victim is correctly listed as 15 years old.

ugh.

“The University of Texas has parted ways with Chris Beard. This has been a difficult situation that we’ve been diligently working through. Today I informed Mr. Beard of our decision to terminate him effective immediately.

“We thank Coach Rodney Terry for his exemplary leadership both on and off the court at a time when our team needed it most. We are grateful he will remain the acting head coach for the remainder of the season.”

[The Bucks] could use more guys who can dribble and pass. If they can get Alec Burks without giving up a FRP, I'd be looking to do something around that.

This is exactly what I was proposing to a Detroit fan at work. Burks could help a number of contenders, but the Bucks seem like the best fit to me.

The Clippers really do not like playing at altitude.

There is no mercy rule, otherwise TNT would need alternate programming.

EDIT: Kevin Harlan: "It is 63 to 25, I don't think I've ever seen that score."

EDIT: Kevin Harlan: "It is 63 to 25, I don't think I've ever seen that score."

73-29.


did i ever tell you how i got these scars? you see, i followed the process...

He may have been calling another game that night. Reggie Miller's response was one word: "College."

This Denver/Clippers game is really illustrating the point I made earlier.

Yes fun timing for my "I like the Clippers" post.

Ziller (un-paywalled) analyzes the early returns on All-Star voting, considers past votes, and concludes that Tatum v. Embiid is the main showdown vis-a-vis the starting slots (in part because, in the past, Tatum has always done unusually poorly in the player vote).

Ziller (un-paywalled) analyzes the early returns on All-Star voting, considers past votes, and concludes that Tatum v. Embiid is the main showdown vis-a-vis the starting slots (in part because, in the past, Tatum has always done unusually poorly in the player vote).

Related/unrelated, was listening to the Dunc'd on awards pod--All-NBA for guards is going to be a bloodbath.

1st team:
Luka/Steph

Then you have about 10 guys for 4 spots:
Donovan Mitchell
Kyrie
Harden
Lillard
Halliburton
SGA
Ja Morant
Jaylen Brown
Trae Young
Devin Booker

Related/unrelated, was listening to the Dunc'd on awards pod--All-NBA for guards is going to be a bloodbath.

1st team:
Luka/Steph

Then you have about 10 guys for 4 spots:
Donovan Mitchell
Kyrie
Harden
Lillard
Halliburton
SGA
Ja Morant
Jaylen Brown
Trae Young
Devin Booker

That is a lot of good players, but I feel like Kyrie will not do well with media voting (despite cruising in fan voting for the All Star game, very predictably)?

Then you have about 10 guys for 4 spots:

Maybe it'll be different when the 71 point game is further from memory, but I think between that and Cleveland's ascension to the top of the East, that Mitchell is a near lock for one spot on the 2nd team. After that, it does become difficult, and is probably too early to call. I personally am planting flags for Halliburton/SGA/Morant and the olds (except Curry) have seen their time come and go.

I agree with 837. I think it's Mitchell and who else. But I think injuries and regression will thin that field out a lot. A number of those guys are playing well better than they ever have before, and there's a lot of injury prone guys or guys who have already missed a fair chunk of time on that list.

My personal take is that Harden's days of deserving all-NBA are done, but who knows if that means he'll actually stop getting them.

Halliburton/SGA/Morant

Morant has been low key not great this year.

These two guys were traded for each other this past offseason. Which is which? (all stats per 36)

Player A: 15.6 points, 13.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 69% TS, 3.1 points better defensive rating on/off
Player B: 13.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 71% TS, 9.1 points better defensive rating on/off

I know these aren't gospel but it beats working. The "wins" ones reward more minutes. :

Guards by EPM 1 Luka 2 Steph 3 Dame 4 Harden 5 Mitchell 6 Haliburton 7 Shai 8 PG (forward?) 9 Ja 10 Booker

Guards by EPM wins 1 Luka 2 Mitchell 3 Haliburton 4 Shai 5 Steph 6 Dame 7 Ja 8 PG 9 Booker 10 Harden

Guards by BPM 1 Luka 2 Steph 3 Haliburton 4 Mitchell 5 Shai 6 Ja 7 Dame 8 Harden 9 Booker 10 PG

Guards by BPM wins 1 Luka 2 Haliburton 3 Mitchell 4 Steph 5 Shai 6 Ja 7 Dame 8 Harden 9 Booker 10 PG

The numberz are really into Haliburton it seems.

These two guys were traded for each other this past offseason. Which is which? (all stats per 36)

Player A: 15.6 points, 13.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 69% TS, 3.1 points better defensive rating on/off
Player B: 13.2 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 71% TS, 9.1 points better defensive rating on/off

my first thought was jared vanderbilt, but that appears to be wrong.
my second thought was horford, but then i remembered that was two years ago.
my third thought was that abomination of a deal between HOU and OKC, but then i remembered that everyone involved was immediately released.

that's three strikes, so i'm out.

I'm assuming player A is Gobert. I can't for the life of me remember the name of the random white guy big in that trade, but probably him?

Walker Kessler, I think.

It's gotta be Gobert and Kessler. Because God hates the Wolves.

What a catastrophe.

Morant has been low key not great this year.

Seems like he's having kind of the same year he had last year? Though I say this as someone who 1) hasn't watched a lot of Grizzlies and 2) thought the Morant-for-MVP stuff was always a bit hyperbolic. Also, it looks as though he started off this year like a house afire (or, more precisely, like a very young player who had taken another leap) and then has fallen off a bit, so maybe he really has been not great for a little while.

I remember thinking that Morant's 3P% had improved this season, then I checked, and it's slightly worse this season than for his career. That's going to be a real limitation on his ceiling, IMO.

It's gotta be Gobert and Kessler. Because God hates the Wolves.

OK, I am NOT going to defend the trade. I was not super into it back then and (duh) it looks worse now. But I feel compelled to offer some slivers of hope about the Wolves.

The two young players that I would argue are critical to their future are Ant Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Both of them are still very young, but both continue to take steps forward. Both Ant and Jaden have upped their TS%, and Jaden at the same and Ant at higher usage rates. Both are at career-high 3pt%. Since KAT has been gone Ant has shown some pretty good playmaking (way more than I expected), and yes his turnover % is up, but that is both expected and one of the things that tend to decrease with age and experience.

Jaden has maintained his defense while improving his shooting and Ant has even made some incremental defensive improvement (steals and rebounds show up in the stats), but he also seems more engaged on defense when they let him be "point Ant" more often. He is also (very slowly) making fewer dumb mistakes on defense (to be clear his offense is better AND has improved more than his defense, but there are some mildly encouraging signs for his defense).

Again this season has kind of sucked. The Gobert trade was terrible (thus far). The injuries have been bad. DLo needs to go away (especially since Ant can take much of the play making from him) - hopefully in exchange for something. The coaching has not been steller. The fit of the highest paid players continues to be ... ummmm ... questionable. And the record displays all that very well.

But, the cry of the sad fanbase in all sports, there are some optimistic signs. It is not as bad a trainwreck as it would appear. It could - not will, but could - turn around such that this season is a mere disappointment and not a tire fire. The future still has a chance of working out (not as well as if the Gobert trade had not been made, but sunk cost).

He shot 45% on 3s for the first 11 games, down to 25% for the 22 games since.

[850] Thanks for that! I thought I remembered some gaudy early season lines from him.

It's gotta be Gobert and Kessler. Because God hates the Wolves.

It is indeed Gobert and Kessler. It's pretty remarkable that Utah acquired the best center in the trade.

But, the cry of the sad fanbase in all sports, there are some optimistic signs. It is not as bad a trainwreck as it would appear. It could - not will, but could - turn around such that this season is a mere disappointment and not a tire fire. The future still has a chance of working out (not as well as if the Gobert trade had not been made, but sunk cost).

It's a worse trainwreck than it appears. Gobert's money is an albatross that lasts for three years after this one.

The Wolves have, already committed, in 2023, a payroll of 120 million. The cap this year is 123.

They are in a Bird rights trap with Russell, where they basically have no way to replace his production so they are incentivized to bring him back at his current number. That will place them in the tax and give them no path to improving the team.

This team desperately needs to trade KAT or Gobert at this point and probably has no other path.

It is indeed Gobert and Kessler. It's pretty remarkable that Utah acquired the best center in the trade.

I think that is a conclusion not warranted by the data you presented. I mean come on. Kessler is playing 18 minutes a game in a career that is less than half a season in. He might end up better going forward than Gobert, but let's not be silly about this.

This team desperately needs to trade KAT or Gobert at this point and probably has no other path.

They can't trade KAT. Like really, not until the summer. And there is no way they trade Gobert this season. And while I am not on board with the trade, given the amount the two have played together it seems a bit early for complete hair on fire panic that they can never play together. Especially since selling now would be selling at the lowest possible price.

Things are never as good as they appear, but they are also never as bad as they appear.

They are in a Bird rights trap with Russell

Nah. I think it is very likely they trade Russell before the trade deadline. They might resign him, or sign and trade him, but I don't think they are stuck with him. They didn't sign him in the offseason, and all that applied then.

Nah. I think it is very likely they trade Russell before the trade deadline. They might resign him, or sign and trade him, but I don't think they are stuck with him. They didn't sign him in the offseason, and all that applied then.

agreed.

that being said, MIN isn't exactly the best-run franchise, so i would not at all be surprised to see them double down on donatello.

Who had the Hornets dropping 84 on the Bucks in the first half?

Is it just me or does it seem that shitty teams are beating (and even blowing out) good teams much more frequently than normal? It's possible that it's always like this and that it's confirmation bias to notice it in a high-parity season. But it definitely seems to be happening more.

What is everyone's explanation for the # of 50-point (or more!) this year? Certainly offense in general is up and it might just be that 50 is the new 40. Part of me thinks that there is some machismo in play - if he did it, I am going to show I can do it too.

852/854: The Wolves need to maintain Russell's salary slot or they lose it. But they probably don't want Russell. Is it he not KAT's bestie anymore?

Possible solution - trade him for players making equivalent 2022/23 salary, that might be worth keeping into 2023/24, and wouldn't require draft capital to acquire. The other team clears cap space for next year.

From DET: Burks, Noel, Joseph, Diallo. Burks and Noel are under contract for another year.
From CHO: Higglepuff. I don't think Minny does this without getting a pick, and I don't think CHO gives up a pick.
From HOU: Gordon, Tate. I don't think Minny does this. Gordon is worse than D-Lo and Tate isn't excess value on his deal.
From SAS: Richardson, McDermott. I don't think Minny does this.
From OKC: Nothing makes sense.

So it's really only Detroit that works here, at least until there's another obvious seller.

So it's really only Detroit that works here, at least until there's another obvious seller.

The other trade that's been rumored is for Lowry.

There are reasons to like and dislike that trade for both teams.

I would do the Lowry trade, to be honest.

852/854: The Wolves need to maintain Russell's salary slot or they lose it. But they probably don't want Russell. Is it he not KAT's bestie anymore?

The problem is on the basketball side. DLo doesn't function all that well with KAT as it turns out. And he is not super awesome with Ant. Most people thought he would thrive offensively with Gobert, but it turns out that is not working all that well either.

Rumor has it he is well-liked in the clubhouse, so it is not that, but his play just does not fit with the other pieces. I mean the same thing could be said about like half the roster (OK, probably more than half the roster, the Wolves are the island of misfit toys in terms of team construction), but DLo is in the final year of his contract and he is not the guy picked by the current front office. He is far and away the most likely to get the boot in a desperate bid to keep the salary slot and find pieces that fit together a little better, and they will likely have to lose the trade in terms of talent (and that is OK).

That is why the Gobert trade is a killer. Yes, they paid too much to get more pieces that don't fit right, but the worst part is they are lacking in assets to fix things. Tim C is going to have to do some real front-office magic to get out of the hole he dug. The whole thing is so dumb.

All he had to do was just sit back and watch the team for a few months. They went from 23 wins to 46 wins last year. Regression was always the most likely outcome. Keep the band mostly together, see how the parts fit and how the kids (Ant, Jaden, and others) evolve (or don't), and then at the trade deadline or next year then you start to push chips into the middle.

Going all in when he did was so dumb I suspect it had to be ownership that said we cannot have regression, so do what you can, make a splash, and keep the train running. And Tim said, OK. He is so highly regarded I can't imagine this mess is all him, I am much more willing to believe ownership is to blame (it is the wolves, just look at ownership, they are the absolute worst).

But I guess it doesn't matter. We are where we are.

The Second Spectrum shot quality model estimates average NBA shooters would produce an eFG% of 47.5 on BKN's jumpers - that mark would rate 28th. But, BKN is actually producing an eFG% of 56.9 - the top mark in the NBA. Absurd shot-making.

I wonder to what extent we should expect this to regress? Obviously, Durant and Irving are very good at making difficult shots, and the Nets have other good shotmakers on the roster, but the numbers seem at the upper limit (if not past it) even for them. And the whole thread (it's from Kirk Goldsberry) reminds me of the way people talked about the Celtics early in the season; the C's were doing it with higher quality shots, but also hitting them at an incredible rate, which proved unsustainable. I don't know what degree of variance applies to difficult twos, as opposed to standard threes, but even great shooters cool off for stretches, no?

I’m with Mouse, I think the trade came from the new ownership. I still think Connelly was negotiating against himself and gave up way too much, but.

Move DLo, let the season play out, fiddle around the edges. Moving either Towns or Gobert this season seems like a huge mistake.

What can you get for DLo? Like, are you getting anything more than equally meh expiring contracts? I guess it's not clear to me what you're gaining from moving him vs. letting him walk. You're not getting assets, right? Right??

What can you get for DLo? Like, are you getting anything more than equally meh expiring contracts? I guess it's not clear to me what you're gaining from moving him vs. letting him walk. You're not getting assets, right? Right??

This is where I'm at, and why I think they'll end up bringing him back with Bird rights.

Is Kyle Lowry fixing this team? Obviously cooked Kyle Lowry who is owed 30 million next year?

Who else are you realistically thinking you're getting?

I'm sure you could get Conley, and he's still a smart PG but he's pretty clearly cooked.

Thoughts on Jazz so far since I'm guessing it's mostly Booey and me watching them.

Markkanen: he's great. Can score at all three levels and so hard to matchup against since he can just shoot over vast majority of guys quicker than him and is quicker than most guys bigger than him. His summer performance has me thinking a lot of this improvement is real, though it obviously wouldn't be a surprise if this was his best season. But if he's close to this level he's what...a #2 guy on a contender? It helps that he can get his offense within the flow of the offense so easily and so could play off a superstar.

Conley: very important to Jazz this year but only because they have no other PG, but he can't finish at all and since his minor injury apparently has had to change his shooting form to avoid pain, so uhhhh yeah pretty sure he's just cooked.

Kessler: I think he's going to have a very long career and even ignoring contract I might take him over Rudy going forward. Rudy is I think still pretty clearly better from what I've seen watching Wolves and the stats, though I do think he looks slower and less impactful and I don't think it's just adjusting to a new team/system. There were a few warning signs even last year, and I also wonder if playing so many summers for France is just wearing him out. I think Kessler def has the potential to be an elite defensive rim protector/drop big, so if he's going to be more than solid starter probably will have to add strength and mobility (so he can switch as Rudy developed). Offensively I don't see any reason to think he'll ever be able to shoot from three, so mostly hoping he can improve on screens and develop some sort of post game if smalls switched onto him.

Clarkson: love him, but not surprised his early passing improvement didn't last. If he's happy here, I'm happy keeping him around. I don't think he will hurt a tank much, so I'm not looking to move him unless a team actually wants to give up real assets for some reason.

Beasley: amazing shooter who needs so little space to get good shots off. Jazz have a team option so I'm not moving him unless I get at least a FRP. I think the Lowe Post ideas for him all were at least reasonable.

Vanderbilt: probably the most disappointing to me because I thought he was supposed to be something close to a defensive stopper and decent rim protector. He's not close to either. He's basically just an energy guy who can create chaos, which I like well enough, but I think I'd be looking to move him while his reputation still seems a bit higher than that.

Olynyk: he's decent enough but man that trade sucked and I really don't like him with his history of dirty plays and incessant flopping.

THT: wish he was good since who doesn't love a thicc king on the floor, but he is an absolutely god awful shooter and just doesn't do anything else well enough to come close to compensating.

Sexton: crazy fast, seems like a great finisher and foul drawer, good shooter. Plays hard on defense, so just a question of if he can slow down enough at times to make the right plays. If he does, sixth man on a good team since size really just makes it hard to envision him being more than that and playmaking never gonna be close to good enough for a PG.

NAW: long, pretty athletic, and is shooting much better and seems to have cut out some of his dumb shot selection that's plagued him. Depending on how much of the shot improvement is sustainable, could see him being a decent backup combo guard.

Rudy Gay: so done the toaster should be on fire. Not sure if I want him off the team or to play 30+ minutes a night to help tank.

Fontecchio and Agbaji: both have had glimpses of being useful wings off the bench. Neither high upside though.

I don’t really know what the Wolves would do with the cap space if Russell walks?

The Lakers won their first game against a division rival this season. They are in last place in the division, but just 2 games behind the Kings for first place.

What can you get for DLo? Like, are you getting anything more than equally meh expiring contracts? I guess it's not clear to me what you're gaining from moving him vs. letting him walk. You're not getting assets, right? Right??

There are two goals in any DLo trade. Since they will be over the cap you want to get something for that salary slot rather than lose the slot for nothing. The second goal is that the something you get fits in with the core players on the team better than DLo does. Right now DLo just doesn't fit. Yes, he is not that great, but he does have some ability, but what he has just doesn't seem to basketball-mesh-well with what other (more important) players do.

So if you trade for someone who fills that salary slot, has more than this year on their contract, and fits better with the other players (but very likely is not as good in terms of pure talent) then you make the trade.

The other possibility is trading to a team, picking up a worse contract, and the team you trade him to then lets him walk (this assumes the other team ends up under the cap and so is in a different cap place than the wolves).

I am not enough of a capologist or ... well basketball expert to know who they might trade with, or what they might get, but those are the basic parameters.

Note: Just recently, days after a long players-only meeting, Finch left DLo on the bench for the end of the game(they won). Finch also didn't play DLo at the end of the playoff game last season. They have mostly played fine without DLo this year. Yes, they likely need more ball handling if they trade away DLo, especially until JMac gets back from injury (assuming he ever does), but it is pretty clear the front office (did not sign him to an extension in the off-season) and Finch both seem to have not very much invested in keeping DLo. It is possible they do, but it doesn't look like it.

I don’t really know what the Wolves would do with the cap space if Russell walks?

Nothing. If he walks, the slot disappears since they will be over the cap. That is my second-hand understanding anyway.

So they trade him, for a worse contract that might be a better fit, or for a pupu platter. But they can’t sweeten either deal with licks, so … ?

DLo might appeal to a trade partner who wants to clear cap space. Which is why I think the best fit is Detroit, who coincidentally has a franchise PG on the shelf for the rest of the year. Next year, the Wolves could have Burks and Noel instead of nothing, and the Pistons could have an extra $20m of cap space.

This was a wild sequence at the end of the first in Miami-Brooklyn. (Also, Butler was fouled on the game's last possession but the refs let it go; Nets win, again, by 1.)

So they trade him, for a worse contract that might be a better fit, or for a pupu platter. But they can’t sweeten either deal with licks, so … ?

They find a trade they like, or they resign him - letting him just walk is the worst of the three outcomes, probably. I am not even saying that absokutely won't resign him, I mean it is possible I guess, but it would probably be at less than he is making now.

Which is not exactly exciting, I admit. I mean, they are in a bad position, no doubt. I am just arguing they are not absolutely in the Bird Rights trap, honestly, he is not valuable enough, he doesn't give them enough, for them to be forced into resigning him.

Sorry, new thread