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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4141 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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   1701. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 21, 2022 at 11:15 PM (#6077868)
Well that was a mess top to bottom.
   1702. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2022 at 11:19 PM (#6077869)
Weird game that seemed oddly like someone was shaving points.

Every time the game was threatening to get too close, Miami would start to get calls. When they got enough separation, Boston would get more calls.

Probably just incompetence, but felt almost corrupt.
   1703. spivey Posted: May 21, 2022 at 11:40 PM (#6077871)
I think Dallas has good starters, they’re just not flashy. But Kleber, Bullock and especially DFS I think are above average. Brunson may only be an average starting PG, but those are good/valuable.

I think DFS, Tatum, and Grant Williams are better defenders than JJJ.
   1704. Moeball Posted: May 22, 2022 at 01:36 AM (#6077885)
#1671 I seem to recall in the past that when people passed to Looney he would often fumble the ball, both discouraging teammates from passing to him and defenders from worrying about him. So this version of Looney who catches passes, goes up for dunks or then makes skillful passes to teammates, is something I'm not used to seeing. But it is a pleasant surprise.
   1705. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2022 at 11:55 AM (#6077903)
I think Looney's newfound finishing is more Dallas than him. He's got to be in the bottom bucket of NBA athleticism and nothing was different for him in the previous two series. His hands are solid now but he can barely jump over a phone book and his jump is so slow I expect him to miss seemingly wide open layups. The Ws clearly just have no fear of any of the Dallas players at the rim.
   1706. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2022 at 12:54 PM (#6077917)
Looney's finishing is basically a function of personnel and scheme.

Dallas is basically always doubling off Looney when he's on the court. DFS is face guarding Klay. Bullock is on Steph. As a consequence, that means that Looney is getting these looks with Doncic or Brunson as the low man. Both of those guys are terrible help defenders at the rim (which isn't like a huge surprise), so Looney can just do his phone book jump and dunk it or lay it in.
   1707. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: May 22, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6077988)
Wiggins is questionable for tonight's game. Twisted ankle. If he can't play or is ineffective, I'm not sure who you put on Doncic. Klay's looked pretty bad at keeping in front of guys on the perimeter. I guess if I were Kerr, I'd try Kuminga for a few possessions and see how he does.
   1708. Moeball Posted: May 22, 2022 at 04:55 PM (#6078015)
With Wiggins questionable it makes me think how much injuries/health of players is becoming an annual factor in the playoffs. It's a rarity to see 2 teams at 100% healthy battling it out in a series. As we've mentioned before, the injury gods seem to giveth and they also taketh away. With GS, for example, they certainly were helped in 2015 against the Cavs, with both Kyrie and Love out so that it seemed like LeBron was having to play 1 on 5. On the other hand, in 2019, the Warriors were crippled against Toronto with both KD and Klay hurt. Had those 2 been healthy, the Ws could have very well gone for the 3peat. Come to think of it, KD could have 3peated on Finals MVPs. I don't know if that would have kept him, though, I think he already was pretty much out the door after that season.
   1709. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 22, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6078021)
As we have discussed, injuries affect every playoffs, and that has been true throughout league history. Whether there is more of an effect now--don't know. The parity at the top of the league certainly makes it a big factor at the moment.
   1710. spivey Posted: May 22, 2022 at 09:27 PM (#6078046)
Really impressed with how Golden State changed Wiggins' toughness and mindset. A very interesting data point and case study in nature vs. nurture.

3 point shooting in this game is awful thus far for both sides. Mavs are continuing to get what I think are a number of pretty good looks.
   1711. spivey Posted: May 22, 2022 at 09:47 PM (#6078049)
This Klay Thompson-led second unit is just taking garbage shots. Klay Thompson is done (being an all-star level player).
   1712. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6078051)
Dallas looks a lot better on defense.

The Klay minutes are a disaster. This is the Jordan Poole I thought we would see earlier in the series.
   1713. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 22, 2022 at 10:14 PM (#6078055)
So they fined the Mavs another 100K for "decorum", meaning their players being so close to the court as to interfere with the Warriors on offense. But that isn't helping. Can't the refs warn them, then call T's and throw the offenders out? That might be effective.

I saw the pregame clip where the ref asked one of the inactive players to change out of his white shirt, which made a Warriors player try to pass it to him in the last game. The guy didn't change.
   1714. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2022 at 10:51 PM (#6078059)
among the best quarters the Warriors have played here in the third.
   1715. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: May 22, 2022 at 10:59 PM (#6078061)
So they fined the Mavs another 100K for "decorum", meaning their players being so close to the court as to interfere with the Warriors on offense. But that isn't helping. Can't the refs warn them, then call T's and throw the offenders out? That might be effective.

I saw the pregame clip where the ref asked one of the inactive players to change out of his white shirt, which made a Warriors player try to pass it to him in the last game. The guy didn't change.
from a jason kidd coached team? that's unpossible.
   1716. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 22, 2022 at 11:11 PM (#6078063)
Heh, I remember that one.

Cuban probably told him that the fines are no problem and totally worth it.

Notice that only one guy is in white, because multiple guys are probably not as effective as having just one.

   1717. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2022 at 11:29 PM (#6078065)
Wiggins absolutely exploding for 23 points. Actually a pretty amazing series from Wiggins.
   1718. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 22, 2022 at 11:31 PM (#6078066)
How can you leave Doncic alone like that?
   1719. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: May 22, 2022 at 11:43 PM (#6078069)
Wiggins absolutely exploding for 23 points. Actually a pretty amazing series from Wiggins.
this is the moment he became president.
   1720. The Honorable Ardo Posted: May 23, 2022 at 01:51 AM (#6078080)
I've chosen Miami to win it all, but the Warriors will prevail in the Finals if Andrew Wiggins keeps playing like this.

Golden State's "four guards and Draymond" crunch time line-up is eerily reminiscent of the "Rodman and Jordan/Pippen/Kukoc/Harper or Kerr" units in the Bulls' second three-peat.
   1721. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 08:03 AM (#6078090)
The combination of lack of quality bigs and offense-first guards for Dallas is proving to be their undoing.
   1722. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: May 23, 2022 at 12:09 PM (#6078120)
What a weird series in the East. The Celtics have won 7 quarters to Miami's 2, and the Heat are up in he series.

Bill Simmons has been concerned about Boston's ball-handling for a while, and Miami had 19 steals in Game 3.

Butler, Smart, and Rob Williams are all questionable for Game 4.

It was getting to the point where the winning team wasn't just the team that varianced into more made 3s, but was just the team that took the most. But Dallas has been undoing that in the WCF (taking 15-20 more 3's game than GSW, and down 0-3).
   1723. DCA Posted: May 23, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6078122)
GSW showing that when everyone else zigs, you want to zag.

The 3 pt revolution showed that it's better to take a bunch of 3's at 35-38% than 2's at 50%. But if the defense gives it to you, it's even better to take a bunch of 2's at 60% and win the boards by double digits.

This is how you beat 5 shooters. You dominate the paint and the glass.
   1724. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2022 at 01:43 PM (#6078136)
This is how you beat 5 shooters. You dominate the paint and the glass.


This is just not very persuasive to me.

The Warriors have won in the games where either: Dallas didn't hit 3s at an elite rate OR both teams hit 3s at an elite rate.

Saying that the Warriors have the blueprint to beat 5 out would make more sense to me if they won a game where they shot mediocrely and Dallas shot well.

If Dallas hit 40%+ of their 3s in game 1 or 3 they win those games. That's what makes it appealing as an underdog strategy. If anything, I feel like Memphis was a better blueprint.
   1725. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 01:45 PM (#6078137)
Golden State got dominated on the glass against Denver, and was even with Memphis there. I think people already knew you beat teams playing small by dominating the paint, rebounding, and FT battle. And you need to try to dominate Golden State on TOs as well.

I think Golden State is winning with talent and versatility. That's one thing that's been pretty clear to me this year and playoffs. They have a ton of good players, and a ton of good different players. It gives them option to play big vs. Dallas, but small vs. Denver. A lot of other teams mostly play the same, or similar way, regardless of opponents.

With how physical the games are, teams shortening rotations and playing starters big minutes, injuries, and the every-other-day schedule, I wonder if depth is starting to be underrated again.
   1726. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 23, 2022 at 02:39 PM (#6078140)
Agreed. Golden State is simply much, much better 2 through 8 than Dallas. It turns out, having good players matters. The NBA is still a talent-first league. It's a testament to Luka that they have been at all competitive this postseason.
   1727. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6078141)
I didn't watch a single minute of Dallas vs. Phoenix in the previous round. I would have thought that this applies to Phoenix as well:

Golden State is simply much, much better 2 through 8 than Dallas. It turns out, having good players matters.

   1728. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 23, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6078143)
Golden State has some flaws, but in today's switchability/3s game, I think they are probably the best team when healthy. I am also a believer in Kerr as a coach. With Butler banged up, as well as RWilliams and Smart, I think Golden State is the favorite now. I had GS/MIL before the playoffs, and I think a healthy Milwaukee would have been tough on them, and Boston/Miami will not be easy either, but my money would be on GS.

As to Boston/Miami, I think Miami deserves a lot of credit for coming out hot in G3 and for holding on to win on the road without Butler. Spoelstra is obviously a good coach. But I think Boston has a little more talent overall and with Butler banged up, the edge has to go to Boston (although obviously I want Miami to win).

As to Dallas, I generally agree with most of 1726. Like I have said many times, the key in Dallas now IMO is getting the right #2 to go with Doncic.
   1729. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6078150)
I didn't watch a single minute of Dallas vs. Phoenix in the previous round. I would have thought that this applies to Phoenix as well:


I'm not even sure it applies to Golden State.

Golden State has Wiggins, Klay, Poole, Draymond and a bunch of guys.

Whoever you think of as the #2 on GSW, are they really that much better than Brunson? I guess it's Draymond vs. Brunson, and they seem pretty even to me. It's definitely not obvious to me that Klay is better than whoever he's matched up against.

Edit: on the topic of projections, 538 hilariously has the Celtics, down 2-1 in their series, with a better shot to win the finals than the Warriors, up 3-0.
   1730. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:21 PM (#6078151)
Just really impressed with a 34 year old Curry putting up 28/8/7 with this mix of guys in the conference finals.
   1731. asinwreck Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6078152)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
ESPN Sources: Denver Nuggets President Tim Connelly has agreed to a deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves that’ll make him one of the NBA’s highest compensated executives. Significant coup for Minnesota franchise.
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Connelly will sign a 5-year, $40M-plus deal that includes ownership equity, sources said. Massive deal and franchise changing move for the Timberwolves.
Quite a loss for Denver. Will this at all affect Jokić's decision this summer?
   1732. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6078153)
1729: To your point KT's 3 pt% has decreased as playoffs continue from .458/.364/.278 Add he's averaging 37 minutes a game so one has to suspect it's fatigue.
   1733. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6078154)
Good for Tim Connelly. Get that MLE money, my guy.
   1734. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6078155)
In this series, after their starters, Dallas' #6 guy is Dinwiddie. Though he has playoff skills and is doing solid in this series, he's inefficient, doesn't space the floor well, or defend well. I'm not sure he's actually good. They're #7 guy is Bertans. Their #8 guy is Dwight Powell, and then they're giving non-garbage minutes to Ntilikina. I think Draymond is better than Brunson, but I also think guys 6-11 are way better for Golden State. Even without GPII.

But all that said, I think the shot quality models have this series a lot closer than it's played out. Dallas is just not making shots, and Golden State is.
   1735. aberg Posted: May 23, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6078160)
Connelly will sign a 5-year, $40M-plus deal that includes ownership equity, sources said. Massive deal and franchise changing move for the Timberwolves.


Very interested to see how this plays out for the Wolves. I don't think there's an exec who is so much better than everyone else that they'll individually change a team's fortunes too drastically (you can definitely do that by being a lot worse, though!). Connelly seems like he has reliably nailed the draft. I hope that's something that can continue. No idea if that's realistic. The process of going after the biggest name who would take their call is worrisome, but he's also a guy that I would've targeted, so that worries me less. It's also not my money and there's no front office cap, so spending there is great. Will they be measurably better off in 3 years than if they kept Gupta? I have no idea.
   1736. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6078167)
I think there's a bigger gap between the top managers/execs and your average ones in soccer than basketball, but this seems like an under-exploited area for both sports. The money we're talking about for a lot of these guys is ashtray money compared to individual players. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the numbers growing, especially since they don't count against the cap.

Like, why hasn't Ballmer offered 30 mill/year to Ujiri or someone?
   1737. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2022 at 05:43 PM (#6078180)
Like, why hasn't Ballmer offered 30 mill/year to Ujiri or someone?


So I think this is the right question to ask, and the answers sort of illustrate what seems to have happened.

All the owners who kind of have the reputation for caring the most about winning, damn the cost, all have guys they like already.

Golden State has Myers.
LAC have the Lawrence Frank Cabal who have been excellent.
The Knicks have Leon Rose and that whole CAA cabal who they love because of basically weird reasons.
The Lakers have Pelinka who they love for idiosyncratic reasons.
The Nets have Marks, who Kevin Durant likes.

I think that's basically it. All the teams that might even arguably pull a move like that basically already have a guy. So you'd have to find a team like the Wolves, who have a new owner to even have that be a possibility, I think.
   1738. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 23, 2022 at 05:59 PM (#6078181)
I agree with most of 1737, except that I would replace "organizational traditions" with "idiosyncratic reasons" on Pelinka. I think that Pelinka probably will be gone if next year is as as bad as this past one was, but I think that Jeanie would probably turn the organization over to Rambis and one of her other brothers in that scenario rather than going with a big-money poach of a superstar exec. The new owner in Memphis might try something like that if they have 2-3 years of playoff losses; ditto Cuban in Dallas if they can't get into the Finals with Doncic over the next couple of years.
   1739. aberg Posted: May 23, 2022 at 06:22 PM (#6078186)
Connelly seems like a great scout, so hopefully the Wolves can get some value out of pick 19 and three 2nd rounders. Setting that aside, what do you all think he can reasonably do in the next 1-3 years to really elevate the franchise's trajectory? To me, it seems like player development is the best way to turn into a top-4 seed (mainly Edwards becoming All-NBA caliber, though McDaniels is important too). The easy answer would be to trade Russell for a PG who can defend and distribute better and more consistently, but that feels more like magical thinking than a clear route to improvement. Getting someone with a more diverse skill set than Vanderbilt to start at the four would also help. They might be able to do that with just money. Any other thoughts?
   1740. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 23, 2022 at 06:26 PM (#6078189)
There was evidence at the end of his career that Redick is a pretty smart guy off the floor, and he is making a reputation as an insightful and prepared TV analyst who looks up facts and info. I don't listen to or watch any of the stuff he appears on, but I have heard about it a few times:


Legion Hoops
@LegionHoops
Max Kellerman claims Luka Doncic doesn't make his teammates better like Magic or Bird.

JJ Redick: “Magic & Bird played with Hall of Famers. Luka is playing with 2nd round picks,
undrafted guys like DFS. His shot quality
created for his teammates - #1 in the last 2
seasons."
   1741. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 23, 2022 at 06:28 PM (#6078190)
More Redick:

Legion Hoops
@LegionHoops
·
6h
JJ Redick:

“The Lakers’ head coaching job is not a good job.”
   1742. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2022 at 06:49 PM (#6078192)
Whoever you think of as the #2 on GSW, are they really that much better than Brunson? I guess it's Draymond vs. Brunson, and they seem pretty even to me. It's definitely not obvious to me that Klay is better than whoever he's matched up against.


I think I'd go:

2nd banana: Andrew Wiggins vs. Jalen Brunson -- clearly Wiggins
3rd banana: Draymond Green vs. Dorian Finney-Smith -- comfortably Draymond, who's a better and more versatile defender and a more dynamic offensive player
4th banana: Jordan Poole vs. Reggie Bullock -- Poole was quieter in game 3, but still got 10 points on 4 shots and has been hyper efficient on offense
5th banana: Klay Thompson vs. Spencer Dinwiddie -- This is close Klay has been up and down and doesn't carry as heavy a defensive load, but he's still averaging 19.5 on 45/39/84 splits in the postseason overall. Dinwiddie had a pretty good Game 3, solid Game 1 and totally no showed in Game 2.
6th banana: Kevon Looney vs. Maxi Kleber -- Looney has been steady, Maxi has been shooting terribly, but at least he's also providing no rim protection
7th banana: Otto Porter Jr. vs. Davis Bertains -- clearly OPJ
8th banana: Moses Moody vs. Dwight Powell -- sorry what was the question again?
   1743. asinwreck Posted: May 23, 2022 at 06:55 PM (#6078193)
One of the impressive things about Connelly is, aside from the initial misstep with Brian Shaw as coach, he has hired well. Malone seems widely liked by the players, and the Nuggets just lost Jordi Fernandez to be Mike Brown's lead assistant in Sacramento. In the front office, Connelly built the international scouting and analytics departments, and fostered a collaborative culture that encouraged capable employees to work across specializations. From a profile on Tommy Balcetis last spring:
Connelly preaches an all-hands approach in the Nuggets front office and likes to avoid pigeonholing members of his staff. Balcetis’ expertise has expanded, leaning into scouting, and he works with vice president of basketball operations Ben Tenzer on the salary cap, as well.

“I wouldn’t be in a position like this where things are going fairly well with the team without the guys I work with,” Balcetis said. “It always takes a village.”

He still works with analytics but is also now heavily involved in strategy and analysis. Connelly calls him a five-tool player and praises his eye for talent. Balcetis’ ability to turn ideas into digestible work the rest of the organization can absorb is a skill, Connelly adds.
This 2017 statement by Josh Kroenke is probably going to prompt a reporter or two to ask questions today.
Denver Nuggets President and Governor Josh Kroenke announced today that Tim Connelly has been promoted to President of Basketball Operations while Arturas Karnisovas has been promoted to General Manager.

“Tim and Arturas’ incredible work ethic, eye for talent, and integrity over the past several years has done nothing but give our organization confidence in our future and these promotions are a direct reflection of that belief,” stated Kroenke. “Continuity is one of the more underappreciated traits of championship level organizations, and we couldn’t be more excited for our group to continue to work together towards the goal of bringing Denver its first NBA title. While we acknowledge we still have lots of hard work ahead, the strides we have made on and off the basketball court are starting to reflect the culture that we believe can take us to a special place. With Tim and Arturas continuing their tireless efforts, a promising young team, and plenty of salary cap flexibility, we hope our fans are as excited as we are about the future of Denver Nuggets basketball.”
I imagine the Kroenkes will express confidence in Calvin Booth and the remaining front office.
   1744. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 23, 2022 at 08:11 PM (#6078202)
[1742] Again, it seems like I'm an outlier here, but I would take Wiggins, Draymond, Klay, and probably Poole over any non-Luka Mav. I would also take definitely Smart or Brown, and probably the other Celtic starters too. Miami I'm not sure about (my read on Miami is still that it's an incredible coaching job), obviously the #2 is way better than the #2 Mav but after that it gets a bit murkier.

I get that this is maybe not a stats based take.
   1745. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: May 23, 2022 at 08:28 PM (#6078207)
Connelly seems like a great scout, so hopefully the Wolves can get some value out of pick 19 and three 2nd rounders. Setting that aside, what do you all think he can reasonably do in the next 1-3 years to really elevate the franchise's trajectory? To me, it seems like player development is the best way to turn into a top-4 seed (mainly Edwards becoming All-NBA caliber, though McDaniels is important too). The easy answer would be to trade Russell for a PG who can defend and distribute better and more consistently, but that feels more like magical thinking than a clear route to improvement. Getting someone with a more diverse skill set than Vanderbilt to start at the four would also help. They might be able to do that with just money. Any other thoughts?

I think that they'll resign Russell for a short, sub max contract; try to consolidate some of their useful but low-ceiling depth and maybe go get Hartenstein? Honestly, I would hope that they have a realistic vision of what the team can do, and be shooting for a top-4 finish, rather than talking nonsense about finals or even conference finals or bust.
   1746. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: May 23, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6078212)
Russell even at a sub-max is probably a negative value contract, so rather than give up a lot of assets to get off of it, I'd be looking to find a replacement PG in the draft or scouring around the G-league or something. J-Mac is a great backup, but I do not think he's good enough to start.
   1747. asinwreck Posted: May 23, 2022 at 08:55 PM (#6078215)
16 to 1?
   1748. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:00 PM (#6078218)
Miami is lucky Boston is missing open shots or this could be even worse than *checks notes* 21 to 4.

I just don't know with Bam. When he and Lowry aren't really looking to attack, it's not pretty.
   1749. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:04 PM (#6078220)
Miami has missed some bunnies too.
   1750. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:04 PM (#6078221)
I was wrong to question the Heat acquiring and playing Oladipo. He's provided some nice minutes off the bench, and is a guy that Milwaukee could have desperately used without Middleton and Divincenzo in the playoffs this year.
   1751. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:05 PM (#6078223)
The performance swings in this series are insanely vast.
   1752. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:10 PM (#6078224)
What's wrong with Herro? Likely just out for this game?
   1753. SteveF Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:11 PM (#6078225)
Groin pull and probably back for game 5.
   1754. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:27 PM (#6078227)
Heat bench guards have played really well (Vincent and Vic), but otherwise it seems like Miami came into this game without the edge you need to take command of the series. You shouldn't be getting killed on OREBs 9-1 when your team is shooting 24.7%. A lot of these have been pure effort rebounds, too.
   1755. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:40 PM (#6078229)
Heat bench guards have played really well (Vincent and Vic), but otherwise it seems like Miami came into this game without the edge you need to take command of the series. You shouldn't be getting killed on OREBs 9-1 when your team is shooting 24.7%. A lot of these have been pure effort rebounds, too.


Agree--officiating has also played a role.
   1756. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:45 PM (#6078233)
NBA should scrap the in-season tournament and completely blow the format up and go with my convoluted format.

I'm sure there are 1,000,000 holes in this plan and a 0% chance of anything remotely it happening, but I'm going to quickly type it up anyway because Adam Silver, Bill Simmons, Zach Lowe, and Stephen A Smith all read this thread and this game is already a blowout.

-Expand to 32.
-There are three different sessions/tournaments that would stretch from October-April or so.
-Each session splits the league into two pools of 16.
-Everyone plays 18 games, all teams once, a few twice at random.
-After the 18 games, all 16 teams participate in some sort of tournament that's seeded, has double-elimination, some screwy sort of format. Or maybe a simple best-of-three tournament. Make it so you get a minimum of 2 games per team, but also some sort of maximum at 12 or so.
-At the end of the three different sessions, there's then the "NBA Playoffs" sort of like we know them, but it just starts with 8 teams.
-The 8 teams are made up of the six session tournament winners and two-wild cards. Wild cards based on points earned throughout the three sessions.
-If a team wins more than one session, that lets another wild card in. Potentially more wild cards get in if more than one team wins more than one session.
-Team would play a minimum 60 games (18 x 3; plus at least 2 tournament games each session) and a maximum of 90 (18 x 3 plus max 12 each session).
-Maybe the championship games of the sessions are best-of-one at neutral sites for publicity.
-If you win more than one session, you're rewarded with a better seed and more home games in the NBA Playoffs. Potentially host 5 out of 7 games. Maybe even 6 of 7. Also, top seed gets to pick its opponent for the first round.
-This leaves the big prize the same its been throughout history of the NBA, the NBA Playoffs winner, but makes regular season more interesting. You can't really blow it off because only 8 get in, but you're also given a few chances to play your best and get in.

Adam's people can fill in any details I've missed and make improvements around the edges.

Weirdly tennis made me think of this. It's cool/fun how there's more than one big winner a year, but also acknowledge that some wins (Majors) are bigger than others. Also gives a team that's hurt at one point in time to bounce back stronger when their at full strength for a period.

I know this will never happen, but I'm convinced the current 82-game exhibition setup is absurd and this would be more entertaining for casual fans as well as still a format that would reward great teams and not turn who wins the championship into a total crap-shoot.
   1757. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:49 PM (#6078236)
Adebayo will simply not challenge Williams near the rim. He’s taken two shots, both of them when Williams was out of the game.
   1758. spivey Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:50 PM (#6078237)
It does seem like Miami has been called for like 5 moving screens, many of which are your garden variety moving screens that happen 4 times a possession. Boston's FT rate does seem oddly high the last two series against Milwaukee and Miami for a team that doesn't actually attack the basket or get points in the paint.
   1759. SteveF Posted: May 23, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6078238)
Celtics are playing a lot of drop as one might expect given Miami is without Herro.
   1760. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:00 PM (#6078240)
Celtics are using Miami’s aggression against them. Every drive, someone reaches in. That will get you some steals and deflections out of bounds. But it will also get you a lot of shooting fouls. Lowry in particular reaches in every time.
   1761. Mike A Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:08 PM (#6078241)
The FT disparity for these Boston Garden games seems a bit...excessive.

Lots of blowouts in the playoffs this year. Was hoping for some more competitive games.
   1762. MHS Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:13 PM (#6078242)
The free throw disparity has been terrible. With that said only a couple calls that I thought were real bad. I assume the Celtics committed
Bunch more fouls than they have been called for since most of the heat fouls seems reasonable.

Celtics have shot rather poorly. I’d like a lot more insight into what they are doing defensively to really take Bam, Lowrey and Butler out of the game.

   1763. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:22 PM (#6078245)
This is the “Brown refuses to pass to Pritchard” offense.
   1764. MHS Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:25 PM (#6078246)
There are games where he just has tunnel vision and when your handle is his handle it can be ugly.

   1765. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:28 PM (#6078247)
I don’t blame Udoka for being pissed. This is really stupid offense.
   1766. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:29 PM (#6078248)
Matt, he simply won’t pass out of a double to Pritchard. Ever.
   1767. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6078249)
And Pritchard nails another 3. He has shooting ability Brown can only dream of.
   1768. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:41 PM (#6078251)
Why they don’t look for Pritchard more is infuriating.
   1769. SteveF Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6078252)
Oladipo might get an actual contract this offseason. Would you give him the full MLE?
   1770. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2022 at 10:50 PM (#6078253)
Oladipo might get an actual contract this offseason. Would you give him the full MLE?


I don't think so ... Oladipo is terrifying to me. Taxpayer MLE, IMO.
   1771. SteveF Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:04 PM (#6078254)
On the plus side, at least one series looks like it will give us more basketball. On the minus side it might be basketball nobody wants to watch.
   1772. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:05 PM (#6078255)
Pretty sure this series is somewhere in an amorphous zone in between basketball and wrestling.
   1773. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:09 PM (#6078256)
The Boston/Milwaukee series was even more physical.
   1774. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:13 PM (#6078257)
Also, the FT miss by Pritchard is his first of the year.
   1775. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:19 PM (#6078258)
The Boston/Milwaukee series was even more physical.

That series was Olympic wrestling; this one is a bit more pro wrestling.
   1776. Cagerfan Posted: May 23, 2022 at 11:21 PM (#6078259)
LOL.
   1777. villageidiom Posted: May 24, 2022 at 09:00 AM (#6078270)
The free throw disparity has been terrible. With that said only a couple calls that I thought were real bad. I assume the Celtics committed
Bunch more fouls than they have been called for since most of the heat fouls seems reasonable.
One of the things that bugs me about the Celtics when they are at their worst on offense is they vacillate between avoiding contact in the lane (mostly by dishing back out to the 3pt line or turning it over trying, but also by stopping their progress toward the hoop) and desperately trying and failing to get fouls called on them. Now, to be frank, a lot of that is by Smart, who didn't play last night. What I noted last night was that they were far less afraid of that contact - they just went for the basket. I'm wondering how much that has to do with Williams' presence - that the Heat have to stay on him to avoid the easy 2, and can't commit to the ball handler until it's too late.
   1778. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: May 24, 2022 at 11:27 AM (#6078284)
These playoffs have pretty much sucked. Not totally across the board, but I'd love to know if we're seeing more blowouts and less competitive games than usual. Of course, usually you don't have multiple series where both teams are trading blowouts. Health has been a factor, but it can't all be 3pt variance.

Justin Phan @jphanned

Margin of victory, last 17 playoff games:

20
9
6
9
25
25
11
33
28
13
14
27
9
3
39
30
35

Average margin of victory has been 19.8 points. There's been a total of 7 clutch time minutes.
   1779. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: May 24, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6078286)
I think a lot of it is fatigue (and injuries obviously). The unrelenting string of one day off, one day on is just brutal. Teams expend a ton of energy to get a big win, and then 2 days later don't have the legs to compete.
   1780. spivey Posted: May 24, 2022 at 12:23 PM (#6078287)
These playoffs have pretty much sucked. Not totally across the board, but I'd love to know if we're seeing more blowouts and less competitive games than usual. Of course, usually you don't have multiple series where both teams are trading blowouts. Health has been a factor, but it can't all be 3pt variance.


Link. Yes, we are. Both by average and standard deviation.

The first round and a half of the playoffs I think were really interesting. It's gotten a bit less so. IIRC, we saw this in the regular season, at least during the COVID years, that blowouts were up. It makes sense as teams continue to shoot higher and higher 3pt rates. I think there's other things too, but discussion should start there. And I think in general the teams in the playoffs are better at protecting the paint and rim than they are at attacking it.
   1781. spivey Posted: May 24, 2022 at 12:28 PM (#6078288)
I think the flipside of the "blowouts" is that it takes a much bigger beatdown for games to feel like blowouts to me now. It's very routine for teams to win quarters by 15+ points. Game 4 of the Milwaukee/Boston series, Milwaukee was up 10+ right at the end of the 3rd and lost by 10. I think it also makes to redefine what a blowout is when you see in game swings like this consistently (both because of 3s, but also great defense that can cause teams to really struggle for long stretches).
   1782. tshipman Posted: May 24, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6078293)
I've noticed the same thing, spivey. 30 points is kinda my new margin for game over, because 20 is totally doable in a quarter.
   1783. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: May 24, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6078296)
and maybe go get Hartenstein?

I suspect he might be popular, fwiw.

Related - do you see Minnesota keeping Okogie?
   1784. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: May 24, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6078297)
I suspect he might be popular, fwiw.

I would hope so. He's a good player, and fits a lot of teams' needs.

Related - do you see Minnesota keeping Okogie?

I don't think he's got a lot of value around the league, but they might try to keep him around on a smallish contract. I still hold out hope for a sort of shorter PJ Tucker kind of career for him. If only he could hit the corner three.
   1785. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 24, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6078299)
I think a lot of it is fatigue (and injuries obviously). The unrelenting string of one day off, one day on is just brutal. Teams expend a ton of energy to get a big win, and then 2 days later don't have the legs to compete.


The players sitting out games off and on have me wondering how much schedule and fatigue considerations factor in. Smart and Williams III in particular have been on and off. They sat Butler relatively early last night.
   1786. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 24, 2022 at 03:35 PM (#6078309)
The first round and a half of the playoffs I think were really interesting. It's gotten a bit less so.


I thought we were in for a treat here going into the second round -- lots of good teams, all flawed, no great teams. But Boston-Milwaukee has been the only series since I found super compelling. I mean, I'll watch Doncic and Ja any time, and the Warriors remain great entertainment, but as drama, something less than what I was hoping for.
   1787. Cagerfan Posted: May 24, 2022 at 03:44 PM (#6078312)
I think it's due to injuries. The players are beating the snot out of one another.
   1788. aberg Posted: May 24, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6078325)
I don't think he's got a lot of value around the league, but they might try to keep him around on a smallish contract. I still hold out hope for a sort of shorter PJ Tucker kind of career for him. If only he could hit the corner three.


He can't be worth much more than the minimum at this point. I'd love to have him as an 11th or 12th man because he seems like a great guy, works really hard, and plays enough defense that I don't mind him having to fill in the rotation if another wing is hurt. The shooting is simply below the threshold that would keep in him in a rotation, absent some other offensive calling card (playmaking, rebounding...).
   1789. tshipman Posted: May 24, 2022 at 05:16 PM (#6078328)
Okogie is a good second draft candidate for a team that has a lot of confidence in their shooting coach. His FT % isn't terrible. He should be able to be league average or above.
   1790. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: May 24, 2022 at 06:56 PM (#6078336)
Yeah that’s pretty much where I am. I think he could turn into a useful player on a well coached and well run team. If that’s in Minneapolis, great.
   1791. Cagerfan Posted: May 24, 2022 at 09:54 PM (#6078356)
Mavs are showing signs of life.
   1792. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: May 24, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6078360)
If you wonder if an NBA game has ever been delayed or canceled by rain, yes it has, and yes, it was in Seattle.
   1793. asinwreck Posted: May 24, 2022 at 10:52 PM (#6078364)
The Nets had a rain delay back in 2014, a couple years into the Barclays Center's existence.
   1794. Cagerfan Posted: May 24, 2022 at 11:11 PM (#6078367)
   1795. MHS Posted: May 24, 2022 at 11:16 PM (#6078369)
That seems right if you’re going to be fluid between wings and guards.
   1796. sardonic Posted: May 24, 2022 at 11:31 PM (#6078372)
Damn, I had already written this game off. Nice experience for Moody/Kuminga/Poole even if they don't get any closer from here.
   1797. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: May 24, 2022 at 11:35 PM (#6078373)
Mark Cuban
@mcuban
·
2h
As fun as the Play-In Tournament was, it led to playoff games being played every other night. Which raises the question of whether that has led to teams being tired and possibly injured. We can’t extend the last day because of TV. Should the PlayIn be just 8th seed or not at all?
   1798. Cagerfan Posted: May 25, 2022 at 07:21 AM (#6078384)
   1799. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 25, 2022 at 09:35 AM (#6078393)
Add two to the West, slide the Timberwolves over to the east, and Bob's your uncle.

Memphis and New Orleans are the other two obvious candidates, but MN has a more brutal travel schedule.
   1800. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: May 25, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6078399)
Flip.
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