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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4141 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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   2001. asinwreck Posted: June 02, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6079527)

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Nike founder Phil Knight and Dodgers co-owner Alan Smolinisky have made a $2 billion-plus written offer to purchase the Portland Trail Blazers, sources tell ESPN. Discussions are ongoing with the Paul Allen trust that's overseeing ownership of team. Story soon.
   2002. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 02, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6079535)
i think boston is -slightly- better than gs. picking the warriors in 7.
   2003. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 04:42 PM (#6079539)
Prediction stuff:

When Boston has the ball:

This part feels the clearest to see. Golden State will probably start out trying to single cover Tatum with Wiggins, and trap/double Brown. Golden State will mix in a bunch of zone stuff to keep Tatum on his toes, but generally speaking, the gameplan for GSW is to single cover the primary scorer, pre-switch to keep Curry/Poole out of trouble, and live with what happens. Boston will probably have some nights where Horford/Smart/White hit shots, but generally speaking, I would expect pretty middling results in the halfcourt. Tatum is probably the easiest player for the Warriors to match up with that they have yet faced in the playoffs on this side of the ball.

When Golden State has the ball:

This part feels hard to tell. Golden State prefers to attack defensive mismatches by positioning the weakest defender as the low man and attacking the rim off cuts. That means that they will be trying to pull Rob Williams away from the basket and move Jaylen Brown under the basket. I think the Celtics will likely come out in a switch-heavy system, while trying to keep Rob Williams out of rotation. It's hard to tell how effective that will be--it was Dallas's strategy as well, and Dallas couldn't execute. Golden State put up a very good 124 ORTG in the Dallas series with relatively sustainable shooting (39% from 3, mostly driven by Curry shooting 44%). Comparatively, Golden State struggled against Memphis on offense, driven by high TOV% and low 3p%. Memphis was an elite turnover forcing team in the regular season, generating 9.7 steals per game, and 10.5 when Ja wasn't in the lineup. Boston was 18th in the regular season at 7.4 steals. Boston is *more* like Dallas than like Memphis in this regard. Boston is also a mediocre rebounding team, 10th in the playoffs despite getting basically a free pass on the boards in round 1.

To me, the series comes down to 3p shooting and turnovers. If Golden State shoots reasonably well and doesn't significantly lose turnovers, they will quite likely win that game. Boston's success this playoffs has been very largely predicated on opponent 3p shooting. Opponents have made approximately 20 fewer 3s than expected, resulting in about 3 points per game less than expected. If you think that's meaningful and real, then Boston should be significantly favored. Golden State has been the best offensive team in the playoffs by a reasonably significant margin. If they avoid turnovers, and shoot at expectations, they should be a pretty clear favorite. If they don't, they will lose.
   2004. sardonic Posted: June 02, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6079541)
Will be at the game tonight -- weeks ago I made plans to be in SF today just in case, and luckily the basketball gods have not punished me/the team yet. Dodged a COVID close contact last weekend (tested negative yesterday, no symptoms), so even with that not the smoothest journey. But my buddy got us tickets so we'll keep our streak alive of going to a game in every Finals series of the current run.

It'll also be my first time inside Chase Center. Excited for that, and doing my small part to help Lacob pay those luxury tax bills.
   2005. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 05:26 PM (#6079543)
Oh, for a broadcast of just Breen and Doris Burke.
God, I can't stand Doris Burke. The Mistress Of Hyperboly.
   2006. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 05:41 PM (#6079544)
FWIW, 538 isn't the only advanced analytics system that likes Boston. ESPN is giving them an 85.9% chance of winning, even greater than 538.
   2007. JJ1986 Posted: June 02, 2022 at 05:56 PM (#6079547)
That sounds right.
   2008. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 02, 2022 at 06:23 PM (#6079550)
Will be at the game tonight --
Live blog it, my man!
   2009. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 02, 2022 at 06:29 PM (#6079551)
Will be at the game tonight --
try not to do anything philly fans wouldn't do.
   2010. aberg Posted: June 02, 2022 at 06:31 PM (#6079552)
God, I can't stand Doris Burke. The Mistress Of Hyperboly.


Everyone's entitled to their own opinion, but it is notable to me that this is the first complaint I recall ever hearing about her as an announcer. For me, what you're describing as hyperbole seems like genuine enthusiasm and a sense of awe at what the best players are able to do, which adds to my enjoyment.
   2011. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:07 PM (#6079553)
I would kill for Doris and Breen to announce games and then the TNT crew for pre-game, halftime, and post-game shows. I think she's great and maybe the announcer who does the most prep so she's familiar with each team's minutia when she calls the game.

Instead we get two of the whiniest argumentative old ######## ever paired up with Breen.
   2012. asinwreck Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:11 PM (#6079554)
Yeah, I always enjoy Doris Burke. I'd like to hear a broadcast with her and Hubie Brown as a two-person booth, as both bring a real enthusiasm to calling the game.
   2013. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:13 PM (#6079555)
My read on the tension in Utah is that Mitchell blames Gobert for the playoff failures and the Wade cabal agrees with him. I think for that reason, Gobert will be moved as the way to keep Mitchell. I think that Snyder is very resistant to this, and that's why he may be gone.


Honestly, I don't think Mitchell blames Rudy for the playoff failures so much as I suspect he's sick of hearing him ##### at them all season and take shots at his (and others) defense to the media (Donovan has also taken some pot shots at Rudy in the media TBF). And Quin is tired of all the drama and either wants added control over roster decisions to deal with it or a year off to rest from hip surgery and then go to a new team.
   2014. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:15 PM (#6079556)
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
·
4h
Nike founder Phil Knight and Dodgers co-owner Alan Smolinisky have made a $2 billion-plus written offer to purchase the Portland Trail Blazers, sources tell ESPN. Discussions are ongoing with the Paul Allen trust that's overseeing ownership of team. Story soon.
   2015. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:17 PM (#6079557)
Weird. For some reason, not of my doing, Tom Cervo ended up in my ignore list. Corrected, as Tom is a quality poster. Anyone else have that happen?
   2016. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:27 PM (#6079558)
Kevin Durant
@KDTrey5
My theory is that guys like steve, skip and Shannon have changed the game for the worse. Playas like Stephen and Michael can only push the game forward.



Quote Tweet
First Take
@FirstTake
· Jun 1
.@stephenasmith says Steph Curry changed basketball for the better, while MJ changed it for the worse.

“Michael Jordan is responsible, as much as anybody, for changing the game for the worse!”
   2017. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:35 PM (#6079559)

Weird. For some reason, not of my doing, Tom Cervo ended up in my ignore list. Corrected, as Tom is a quality poster. Anyone else have that happen?


Haters and losers obviously trying to keep me down.
   2018. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:41 PM (#6079561)
Yeah, that was a weird take by Screamin' A. But I think he had a point where he said that, during the 80's, the NBA stopped promoting the games as twp teams facing one another and started promoting player/player matchups. So, instead of "See the Lakers with Magic Johnson face off against the Philadelphia 76's with Julius Erving", it was Magic and the Lakers against Bird and the Celtics". Pinning it on Jordan was wrong as the Bird Magic thing pre-dated Jordan and I'm not sure it caused any deterioration in team play. Maybe just S-A trying to generate controversy, and eyeballs.
   2019. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:42 PM (#6079562)
Haters and losers obviously trying to keep me down.
Algorithms hate TC!
   2020. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 07:50 PM (#6079563)
For me, what you're describing as hyperbole seems like genuine enthusiasm and a sense of awe at what the best players are able to do, which adds to my enjoyment.
That's what I don't like, the awe and the fawning praise and the hyperbole. I'd much prefer someone to tell it like it is and to be humorous, like Al McGuire. Doris possesses neither virtue. I think Barkley would be awesome but the coverage today is too uptight and corporate.
   2021. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 02, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6079567)
I like JVG, to be honest, though he’s not in any list of favorites for me. Announcing is hard!
Doris is great.
   2022. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 08:07 PM (#6079568)
In non-finals news, Phil Knight has put in a 2 billion offer on the Blazers. Seems exceptionally likely to happen if it's being leaked.
   2023. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 02, 2022 at 08:10 PM (#6079569)
The Blazers claim to not be for sale, though hopefully Jody Allen won't be the owner soon enough.

I like both Van Gundy brothers, but the problem with JVG is that he is professionally joined at the hip with Mark Jackson, who brings out the worst in him. I, too, like Doris. I think she's gotten a little cornier in the last few years, if that makes sense, but she is still knowledgable and fun.
   2024. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 08:26 PM (#6079576)
I like Stan fine. I liked Jeff when he first started but he's gotten stale, IMO. Myabe being paired with Mark Jackson has something to do with it. Jackson is completely humorous.
   2025. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:20 PM (#6079581)
Golden State is confusing Boston's defense. I'm sure they'll adjust, but this is an impressive start.

Boston having to settle a bit for above the break 3s from their weaker shooters. Does look like Tatum and Brown will be able to get Curry on them, though.
   2026. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:27 PM (#6079584)
Boston I think has to win the Poole minutes, or they're ######. He's just an awful defender. Memphis did a really good job of picking on him, but Dallas mostly didn't.
   2027. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:28 PM (#6079585)
Phil Knight owning the Blazers feels like maybe the single most logical NBA-owner pairing, so I kind of assume something will happen to mess it up.
   2028. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:31 PM (#6079588)
Cannot believe how many wide open 3s Curry has had in this quarter.
   2029. SteveF Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:32 PM (#6079589)
If Curry hits 20 3s then the Celtics will lose this game by a lot.
   2030. Harlond Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:32 PM (#6079590)
It's not a big deal, but there's a traveling violation about half the time guys receive the ball above the line. A bunch of repositioning both feet after the catch. They're not getting an advantage, and I guess that's why it's not called. Again, not a big deal, but it wouldn't be a big deal to make those calls either.
   2031. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:33 PM (#6079591)
If Robert Williams is as limited as I think he'll be, Payton Pritchard's playability is important for Boston's rotation.
   2032. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:34 PM (#6079592)
Cannot believe how many wide open 3s Curry has had in this quarter.
imo, that's a huge mistake by ime udoka to not have curry miss wide open shots.
   2033. asinwreck Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:35 PM (#6079593)
I suppose Curry missing that last heave in the first quarter is evidence he is human.
   2034. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:40 PM (#6079595)
imo, that's a huge mistake by ime udoka to not have curry miss wide open shots.


On the other hand, credit Kerr for watching the Miami/Boston series and reminding his players to make 3pointers. I thought Spo made a big mistake by not telling his players to make shots.

Edit: Good news for the fate of the universe, as Iguodala checks in.
   2035. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:44 PM (#6079596)
Analysts I trust talk about Iguodala like he could be a factor in this series. Man, I don't see it. I think he's completely washed and has been for 2 years. Like, I think Wesley Matthews is better than him. Kerr is a brilliant coach but I think there are times he goes too deep in the rotation in the playoffs, and Iguodala is one I'm a bit worried about (rooting for GS).
   2036. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6079597)
On the other hand, credit Kerr for watching the Miami/Boston series and reminding his players to make 3pointers. I thought Spo made a big mistake by not telling his players to make shots.


While 75% of this game comes down to MOML it seems, I do have to give Boston credit. Against Milwaukee and Miami, because they were limited in initiation, more of those shots were off the dribble, late in shot clock, not your preferred shooters - than you would like.

Golden State's shots feel much easier. Their shooters are also much better.
   2037. SteveF Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6079598)
62 shots, 34 of which are 3s.
   2038. asinwreck Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:48 PM (#6079599)
Otto Porter Jr. contributing nice minutes in his return from injury.
   2039. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:48 PM (#6079600)
Analysts I trust talk about Iguodala like he could be a factor in this series. Man, I don't see it. I think he's completely washed and has been for 2 years. Like, I think Wesley Matthews is better than him. Kerr is a brilliant coach but I think there are times he goes too deep in the rotation in the playoffs, and Iguodala is one I'm a bit worried about (rooting for GS).


Iguodala as the 8th man helps and gives you about 12 minutes per game of reasonably steady defense and playmaking. It's not as good as 12 minutes of GPII, but it's probably better than 12 minutes of Moses Moody.

The risk is that Kerr gets pissed at Poole or something and you get 24 minutes of Iguodala.
   2040. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6079601)
I'd like to see someone break that down, I didn't quite see how it happened but on that pindown for Klay where he got a wide open 3 on the break he made, the 2 defenders in the action were Horford (chasing Klay and trying to fight over the screen) and Time Lord, who I think was guarding Porter and just wanted to hang near the basket. Getting those 2 guys in off ball screens could yield big results.
   2041. SteveF Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:54 PM (#6079602)
Both teams just realized they have a turnover quota to hit.
   2042. Mike A Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6079603)
Ah, I like it when they actually call the carry. That's one negative about Michael Jordan - he did help normalize carrying the ball.
   2043. SteveF Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:57 PM (#6079604)
It does feel like arbitrary enforcement to a degree, like a 3 seconds call on defense.
   2044. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:58 PM (#6079605)
I wish Tatum, when going left on the left side, would learn to take that lean-back jumper over a small man like he has patented on the right side. her looks really awkward with that lean-in.
   2045. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 09:59 PM (#6079606)
This Boston lineup is very un-modern. Smart/White/Williams/Horford/Brown has only one guy who you actually care about closing out to from 3.
   2046. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:03 PM (#6079608)
This lineup with Otto Porter is what Zach Lowe refers to as the "midsize sedan" Warriors.
   2047. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6079609)
That pushoff on Curry is such garbage. Smart's just mauling him, they won't call it, so he has to push off.

Poole and Looney were both really bad. Looney's hands were awful that half.
   2048. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6079610)
Huge 1st half from Steph, yet they are down two points.
   2049. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6079611)
On that foul by Steph underneath, the whistle was late. I've been seeing a lot of that. It seems like the refs are waiting to see if the shot goes in, and gives the defensive man a pass if it does.
   2050. SteveF Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:10 PM (#6079613)
It seems like the refs are waiting to see if the shot goes in, and gives the defensive man a pass if it does.

Yep. They do this kind of thing 5-6 times a game it seems. I'm kind of OK with it.
   2051. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:11 PM (#6079614)
That pushoff on Curry is such garbage. Smart's just mauling him, they won't call it, so he has to push off.


Three different fouls without a call and then a flop.
   2052. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:14 PM (#6079615)
C'mon. Smart's harrassment was frustrating Steph and he shoved him off. No-brainer offensive foul.
   2053. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:15 PM (#6079616)
If this is the best defense GS can throw at Boston, they're going to get slaughtered.
   2054. SteveF Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6079617)
Easy there, fella.
   2055. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:19 PM (#6079619)
Really. Wiggins and Green are quality defenders. Everyone else is meh. Payton would help but I don't think we're going to see him.
   2056. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:25 PM (#6079624)
Wiggins is impressing me. At both ends.
   2057. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:33 PM (#6079629)
Looney has 6 offensive rebounds in 19 minutes. The Warriors might offer him as much as a 500k raise this offseason.
   2058. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:37 PM (#6079630)
Gotta give it to Tatum, his playmaking has come up a level. He's made some good skip passes off the dribble.

Yep. They do this kind of thing 5-6 times a game it seems. I'm kind of OK with it.


I am too at times, but it just adds more weirdness to things. Like Curry's 3rd foul, he fouled Tatum there, but it would have been on the floor. By waiting for Tatum to miss the layup, it now becomes a shooting foul (and adds to what feels like an undeserved FT margin for Boston at this point).
   2059. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:42 PM (#6079632)
Serious question: is giving a guy a flat tire a tripping foul or not?
   2060. spivey Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:52 PM (#6079638)
Once Jalen Brown starts a drive, he gets tunnel vision more than any other all-star wing or guard I can think of.
   2061. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:58 PM (#6079640)
1st quarter: 3 Warrior turnovers, 32 points
2nd quarter: 5 Warrior turnovers, 22 points
3rd quarter: 2 Warrior turnovers, 38 points
   2062. Harlond Posted: June 02, 2022 at 10:59 PM (#6079642)
Looney has 6 offensive rebounds in 19 minutes. The Warriors might offer him as much as a 500k raise this offseason.
Also leading the Warriors with 5 assists.
   2063. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:01 PM (#6079644)
one of those games where the team that looks 20 better is suddenly only up 5...
   2064. MHS Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:05 PM (#6079650)
I’m very unimpressed by the Celtics game plan. I’m also disapointed they got blown out again in the 3rd… and stunned it’s a 5 point game.

Warriors were a near lock in G1 going in IMHO.
   2065. Mike A Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:16 PM (#6079659)
It does feel like arbitrary enforcement to a degree, like a 3 seconds call on defense.
On that note, Horford just blatantly carried the ball and...nothing.
   2066. Harlond Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:20 PM (#6079661)
Draymond's shooting is killing the Warriors. 2-12 from the field and 0-4 from the line. And it isn't just the free throws that are uncontested shots.
   2067. asinwreck Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:21 PM (#6079662)
The Warriors have 11 4th-quarter points with two minutes to go. At home, in a game they led by double-digits at the start of the quarter.
   2068. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:24 PM (#6079664)
This was both exciting and boring.

"Bench guys who shoot the 3" are becoming the "fungible relievers" of the NBA
   2069. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:27 PM (#6079666)
Like the strangest 17-0 run I've ever seen. Didn't feel like momentum at all, just outexecution with some MOML thrown in. But maybe weirdest of all is Udoka calling two timeouts during the run. I love the move and they got good looks out of the ATO plays, but it's not normal for a coach to call a timeout during their own team's run!
   2070. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:27 PM (#6079667)
I want to see Hauser take a 3.
   2071. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:31 PM (#6079668)
Also, I guess we can put those “Celtics can’t finish a close game” accusations to bed.
   2072. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:32 PM (#6079669)
Pretty big MOML game. Horford, Smart and White combine to go 15-23 from 3. Awful Jordan Poole game. Losing game 1 is a pretty big deal for the series.
   2073. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:34 PM (#6079672)
But maybe weirdest of all is Udoka calling two timeouts during the run.
Yes. And I guarantee the first thing he said when they huddled was Remember last game? Don't take your foot off the ####### accelerator!"
   2074. Mike A Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:34 PM (#6079673)
Warriors looked like the team that hasn't been there before. They got completely out of sorts in the 4th (though credit Boston's defense).
   2075. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:35 PM (#6079675)
538 is now up to 92% for the Celtics.
   2076. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:41 PM (#6079678)
Smart of Udoka to run the "go 9-12 from 3" offense in the 4th, really helped close it out.
   2077. Cagerfan Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:49 PM (#6079682)
From about 1:40 left in the 3rd quarter til about 30 seconds left in the game, the Warriors were outscored by 32 points.
   2078. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 02, 2022 at 11:53 PM (#6079684)

Smart of Udoka to run the "go 9-12 from 3" offense in the 4th, really helped close it out.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-Elr5K2Vuo
   2079. sardonic Posted: June 03, 2022 at 12:30 AM (#6079689)
The most positive take I have is that other than Boston 3 point shooting it felt like everything else went the Ws way. They limited turnovers, dominated the boards and shot the ball well. I'd like to think that if you play that game out 100 times there aren't many where Horford, White and Smart go 15/23 from 3. Still, sets up what feels like a must win game on Sunday.

All that said Chase Center is an awesome place to see a game. It's definitely no Oracle, in fact feels like almost the opposite spiritually. It wasn't lost on this A's fan that they went from sharing a parking lot with the Colesium to being just down the waterfront from Pac Bell.
   2080. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: June 03, 2022 at 12:54 AM (#6079694)
Adam Silver downplayed the chance of a Jailblazers sale in his presser today. Of course, that may be part of his job.
   2081. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 03, 2022 at 12:57 AM (#6079695)
maybe weirdest of all is Udoka calling two timeouts during the run. I love the move and they got good looks out of the ATO plays, but it's not normal for a coach to call a timeout during their own team's run!
One of those was a use-it-or-lose-it time out: teams can only carry 2 timeouts past the 3 minute mark, and the Cs had 3 of them with 3:14 to go. Not sure about the other, though.
   2082. sardonic Posted: June 03, 2022 at 01:03 AM (#6079697)
On one of those I think the Warriors had just called for a zone when he called it.
   2083. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: June 03, 2022 at 01:25 AM (#6079699)
As to the 4th quarter shotmaking, luck surely had to do with it, but it would be silly and reductive to call it luck alone: they got the Warriors in rotation and created some *very* open looks. FWIW, I don't expect any of Horford, White, or Tatum to end the series with their current shooting numbers.

I don't mean this in a backhanded way, but it feels so, so good to play a skill team after 14 games of relentless bludgeoning from the Heat and Bucks. I think, though I'm to some degree wishcasting, that the Celtics will be able to get better ball movement offense going because the smaller Warriors perimeter defense will allow them to put more pressure on the rim and force rotations. Game two may look totally different, but until proven otherwise, I think this is a series where the Warriors will miss being able to run out Livingston and a full game of Iguodala along with their other guys.
   2084. asinwreck Posted: June 03, 2022 at 08:28 AM (#6079704)
The other aspect of the fourth quarter is Boston's defense made it difficult for the Warriors to pass. Klay Thompson in particular looked to be on the verge of a turnover every time he touched the ball, and the Celtics did a great job of knocking the Warriors out of rhythm after it looked like they'd be shot out of the gym in the third.

What was interesting is how the Celtics started to turn it around late in the third. They won Game 7 against Miami despite doing a poor job of closing out quarters. I suspect that was an issue the coaching staff focused on in their preparations for last night's game.
   2085. MHS Posted: June 03, 2022 at 08:29 AM (#6079705)
Did the Celtics do something different to better on the last 5 minutes to limit curry? I think he only had 2 shots, if I counted from the play by play right. Was it just game flow stuff?

Definitely feels like a make or miss game to me imho.
   2086. Cagerfan Posted: June 03, 2022 at 08:47 AM (#6079708)
One thing that hasn't been discussed yet is that Steph rolled his ankle twice in the second half on cuts when he was trying to elude a defender. Neither one involved contact and didn't look that bad but considering his history of injury problems, it might affect his play going forward.

And I concur with the comment above about the Warriors being a finesse team. The Celtics looked much more comfortable running their offense and getting to the rim after the sumo matches they had with Milwaukee and Miami.
   2087. spivey Posted: June 03, 2022 at 08:57 AM (#6079709)
pbpstats had the 2 teams with the exact same shot quality, 48% eFG. Their model takes into account a lot of game state stuff, how close defenders are, shot distance/angle (ATB vs. corner), but does not take into account shooter. So, it's not going to be as good of a model as the ones you pay for, but it's worthwhile to look at, I think.

Golden State has better shooters. I missed the 4th because of sleep, but in the first 3 quarters where the Horford/Smart/White trio were still shooting extremely well from 3, they were mostly above the break shots, and while many were open, many had late contests. That trio is a really bad shooting group. As a group you'd probably expect them to shoot 33% from 3.

What I will say in Boston's credit is on the other side of the ball, when Golden State wasn't in transition or Steph wasn't doing something magical, Golden State struggled to score off individual creation.

Maybe he'll get the max, but I've seen enough these playoffs to feel comfortable saying I don't think Poole deserves the max.
   2088. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 03, 2022 at 09:49 AM (#6079716)
Phil Knight owning the Blazers feels like maybe the single most logical NBA-owner pairing, so I kind of assume something will happen to mess it up.

With his local ties and infinite money, he would have made a ton of sense 20 years ago. But he's 84! What would the succession plan be? Would his co-bidder take everything over?
   2089. MHS Posted: June 03, 2022 at 09:52 AM (#6079719)
I thought Klay looked real bad trying to stay in front Jalen. I thought he looked slow most of the playoffs, but warriors had been able to hide him well.

Curious to see if they change the matchup on Sunday.

Do they adjust and give Tatum more space?
   2090. PJ Martinez Posted: June 03, 2022 at 10:02 AM (#6079722)
Phil Knight owning the Blazers feels like maybe the single most logical NBA-owner pairing, so I kind of assume something will happen to mess it up.
A different perspective:
I don't know why other NBA owners would be OK with the lead shareholder in Nike, the single most influential endorser in the sport AND the company that outfits the league as a whole, owning a team.
   2091. tshipman Posted: June 03, 2022 at 12:36 PM (#6079738)
I don't know why other NBA owners would be OK with the lead shareholder in Nike, the single most influential endorser in the sport AND the company that outfits the league as a whole, owning a team.


Because his money is green? I mean, this feels pretty obvious.
   2092. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 03, 2022 at 01:56 PM (#6079747)
2091--Well, sure, but is there a shortage of very rich guys who want to own NBA teams? I mean, compare him to all other rich dudes and the minus PJ identifies has to matter, right?
   2093. sardonic Posted: June 03, 2022 at 02:07 PM (#6079751)
Some Warriors internet people think they might switch Draymond onto Brown and Klay onto Horford. Dray can tend to freelance a lot when he's not in the main action while Klay is more likely to stick to his assignment.
   2094. tshipman Posted: June 03, 2022 at 02:42 PM (#6079767)
2091--Well, sure, but is there a shortage of very rich guys who want to own NBA teams? I mean, compare him to all other rich dudes and the minus PJ identifies has to matter, right?


There is a very dear shortage of really rich guys who are willing to pay 2 billion for the Blazers. Per Wikipedia, Knight is worth 55 billion and would immediately become the second richest NBA owner after Ballmer. I think the next wealthiest NBA owner is Robert Pera at 13 billion.
   2095. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 03, 2022 at 06:34 PM (#6079787)
Did the Celtics do something different to better on the last 5 minutes to limit curry? I think he only had 2 shots, if I counted from the play by play right. Was it just game flow stuff?

Definitely feels like a make or miss game to me imho.


Here's one attempt to answer.

C's plus 21 on points on 3s in the fourth sounds a lot like MOML, but didn't feel like it in real time. Winning a Curry super hot game while Tatum was 3/17 is ####### impressive regardless of shot luck.
   2096. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 03, 2022 at 08:18 PM (#6079794)
2095

Boston deserves a lot of credit for winning that game, and the odds to win the series are now clearly in their favor. Tatum also deserves a lot of credit for the 13 assists and being +16 on a night when his shot was off.

As to the linked piece, we'll see. As has been discussed here, people tend to overreact to each game in a playoff series, and it takes both the narrative form and the adjustment form, the latter of which tends IMO to view playoff series as a series of chess matches rather than athletic contests and too often looks at game-to-game tactical adjustments as code-breakers. My own opinion FWIW is that when the teams are pretty evenly matched, and I think these two are, the series goes back and forth and is lengthy. I still expect that here, but if Curry goes like 4/15 on 3s next game and Boston wins again, then that likely means I misread the matchup.

I always look at talent/roster first, second, and third, and one thing with this matchup is that Curry, Thompson, and Green are all over 30 now and all have some injury baggage, especially of course Thompson. With Curry, you don't sweat it as much because he is an all-time great. But Golden State will need more from Green and Thompson, and they will need to show that they have it to give in G2. This contrasts with the fact that Boston's lone old guy, Horford, had a career night. That probably won't happen again, but one game like that from the right guy at the right time can turn a series, and that may have happened here.
   2097. Moeball Posted: June 03, 2022 at 10:51 PM (#6079815)
FWIW - the last time a team lost Game 1 of the Finals at home and came back to win the series was the 2013 Heat. We all remember that 7 game series against the Spurs. But that Game 1 loss was a close game. For the last time before that you have to go back to 2001 when the Lakers lost the opener at home to Philly but then came back to take the next 4. But again, that opener was a close game, I think it even went to OT. Before that you have to go back to 1991 when the Bulls lost Game 1 at home to the Lakers but then went on to win their first title. Again, however, that Game 1 was a close game the Bulls could have won.

The last time a team lost Game 1 of the Finals at home by double digits yet still won the title was the 1988 Lakers losing at home in Game 1 to Detroit 105-93. But L.A. was behind the whole game, they didn't have a 12 point lead after 3 and then get outscored by 24 in the fourth quarter.

The one and only time in the NBA's 75 year history that a team truly got blown out in Game 1 at home and still came back to win the series was the 1972 Lakers who lost Game 1 at home to the Knicks 114-92. The Lakers were never in that game, it was all NY the whole way. Then the Lakers won the next 4 games to win their first L.A. title.

The Warriors are in uncharted territory here. First of all, it's a rarity in NBA Finals history for a team to lose Game 1 at home and come back to win the championship at all. That doesn't bode well at all. It's only happened a handful of times. To lose by double digits at home in Game 1 and come back to take the title? Only twice. But to lose Game 1 by double digits after blowing a double digit lead? I remember in 1982 the 76ers opened at home against the Lakers and blew a 15 point 3rd quarter lead and eventually were behind by 16, but they only ended up losing that game by 7. And they didn't win that series.

There is no trend for Golden State to follow here, what they did in Game 1 has never really been done before. So I suppose they could come back from this, but, Luke, I got a really bad feeling about this.

The last time the Warriors and Celtics faced off in the Finals was 1964. The Celtics won the opener by 12 and went on to easily win the series. I'm afraid this is going to be a repeat of that.
   2098. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 04, 2022 at 12:21 AM (#6079818)
2097

Very good post; I always appreciate historical context. I would add, though, that the ubiquity of the 3 makes a difference for me in looking at this. But yes, Boston is now in the driver's seat unless Golden State can push them out of it.
   2099. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: June 04, 2022 at 09:29 AM (#6079833)
The Warriors are in uncharted territory here. First of all, it's a rarity in NBA Finals history for a team to lose Game 1 at home and come back to win the championship at all. That doesn't bode well at all. It's only happened a handful of times.


I didn't fact check this, but on the No Dunks podcast, they said that the road team has won Game 1 17 times, and went on to win the title 8 of those times.
   2100. spivey Posted: June 04, 2022 at 10:20 AM (#6079835)
If we are somehow considering Game 1 not a close game, we are starting from a flawed premise.
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