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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4141 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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   2101. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 04, 2022 at 11:46 AM (#6079841)
Flip.
   2102. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 04, 2022 at 01:47 PM (#6079847)
If we are somehow considering Game 1 not a close game, we are starting from a flawed premise.

This is where I am, too. In the 3pt NBA, 12 points is no blowout.

Zach Lowe and Doris Burke had a reaction post that gibed with that posted blog post (and my observations, but I'm no analyst). They attributed Boston's 4th quarter defense to them going small, which got Looney off the floor, and shifting from the drop coverage they'd used for the first three quarters (and decently after the first). Their broader take was that the way Boston defended and made Poole a liability on both ends boded ill for the Ws, given how central Curry/Poole/Draymond lineups were to the Ws this season.

I'm very curious to see how the Ws adjust, of course. Given how this postseason has gone for Boston, I expect a befuddling loss that throws the lessons of game one into question, but we'll see.
   2103. tshipman Posted: June 04, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6079855)
If we are somehow considering Game 1 not a close game, we are starting from a flawed premise.


In addition, there's some kind of weird separation between the Finals and other playoff games. As recently as ... last series, there was a team that lost game 1 by 11 points and went on to win the series.
   2104. Cagerfan Posted: June 04, 2022 at 03:22 PM (#6079861)
One thing that one should take note of is the play of Pritchard. He played key minutes in the 4th and looked good doing it. The Warriors tried hunting him but didn't get much for their efforts. Poole(2), Iguadala, and Curry all tried to iso him, without success. The only bucket they got was a difficult 3 by Klay that Pritchard contested well. And the Warriors cannot, ever, leave him alone behind the 3 line. He's money from out there.
   2105. SteveF Posted: June 04, 2022 at 06:43 PM (#6079877)
It's just one game, but a few of my takeaways:

The Warriors switched more probably because they didn't want to start every possession immediately in rotation. I suspect that's a product of the Celtics being better across the board at attacking players in rotation/closeouts than Dallas. If DFS or Bullock are dribbling, that possession probably isn't going to end well. Most of the Celtics players can drive and kick once given an advantage created by Tatum, Brown, and occasionally Smart.

I think R. Williams can stay on the court. He had bad moments, but I suspect he can be coached up to force players inside the three point line. The decision to start him on Wiggins was likely a product of Golden State playing two non-shooters. If Wiggins is setting the screen, that's two shooters you can help off of behind. I'm not sure it worked out all that well as offensive rebounds became a pretty big problem. The pre-switching helped keep Williams out of screening action and closer to the basket, but that can only work so much.

Klay, Poole, Curry maybe/probably can't play at the same time. It doesn't look like Klay can guard Brown. The argument in favor of putting Draymond on Brown is that maybe you can short circuit Boston's offense if Tatum/Brown can't create the initial advantage the offense needs to get their drive and kick game going. Their other players (maybe aside from Smart) aren't effective unless they attack advantages gifted to them by the two wings. The downside is you lose Draymond's help defense as he'd need to stay more attached to Brown than Horford.

Boston is the better team when going small. I think Golden State needs to stay big or biggish with Looney or Porter. GPII might change this calculus completely, but GPII probably better allows the Celtics to play big and gives a guy to stash R. Williams on and if it's GPII setting screens, he doesn't need to be defended above the break at all. The downside to playing Looney over Porter is it greatly reduces the effectiveness of Curry spread PnR. Two non-shooters is probably too many help points. But maybe the offensive rebounding/defense is enough to justify playing Looney over Porter even late in games.

GSW is surprisingly light in shot creation for a team that's this good offensively. That's probably a large reason why their record in the finals is somewhat mediocre (talk about first world problems!) without Durant. I wonder what their half court offense is going to look like later in the series once the Celtics are more comfortable playing against their offensive rules/reads. Or maybe they just never get comfortable.
   2106. spivey Posted: June 04, 2022 at 07:43 PM (#6079886)
I think 2105 is a really good recap.

I think Robert Williams likely does get played out of the series. Probably not completely, but at least to the level he did against Milwaukee. He doesn't seem very comfortable coming up to the level on ball screens or off ball screens. If I'm Golden State, I'm trying to attack him much more, and I also agree the pre-switching isn't going to work perfectly, and I think can/will lead to wide open shots some because it's much more dependent on on-the-fly or instinctual decision making. I also think we may see more Luka-style defense when Celts have 2 bigs out there, which is advantage GS. I think Boston against the best teams is better as a small team. It'll be interesting to see if Golden State tries to play big while Boston plays small, if so, I expect we'll see more MOML shots from Smart.

Golden State absolutely needs Poole to be able to create off the dribble. I don't think system buckets alone can win you games.

I'll also say the eye test is absolutely deceiving to all of us. People dragged Smart for taking a bunch of 3s late in Game 7. Most of those, I'd say, were shots he has to take. I think many of the same people praising Boston now would be hammering them if the Horford/Smart/White troika were 5/23 from 3.
   2107. spivey Posted: June 04, 2022 at 07:52 PM (#6079888)
To bring this back to Milwaukee, because everything must end there. I'd like Milwaukee to try to get both Toscano-Anderson and GPII in the offseason. Toscano-Anderson I think is good, but if he can't get into the playoff rotation, that's not gonna change with Moody and Kuminga likely being in their playoff rotation next year. Hell, I think Milwaukee should also look to get Porter, who could maybe help re-unlock some small-ball Giannis lineups.

Golden State obviously will pay a lot of money, but they've got a ton of decisions to make about their roster for next year.
   2108. Cagerfan Posted: June 04, 2022 at 10:39 PM (#6079923)
The fatigue factor weighed heavily on Boston in game 7., I think. They looked more energetic Thursday. Brown and Horford didn’t have to sumo wrestle PJ Tucker to get open against the Warriors. Brown even went right over the top on Draymond on one play for a layup.
   2109. asinwreck Posted: June 05, 2022 at 05:31 PM (#6079991)
Once the reports went public that he might not come back, this seemed inevitable. Now let's see what changes follow.
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
Utah Jazz coach Quin Snyder is planning to step down, sources tell ESPN.
   2110. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 06:26 PM (#6080004)
Step down or be asked to step down?
   2111. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 06:28 PM (#6080005)
SAN FRANCISCO -- The Golden State Warriors have ruled Andre Iguodala out for Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics.

Iguodala will be sidelined by inflammation in his right knee. He returned from a neck injury to play 12 minutes in Game 1 Thursday. Prior to the NBA Finals, the veteran hadn't played since Game 4 of the first round at the Denver Nuggets due to a neck injury.

This likely clears the path for Gary Payton II to make his NBA Finals debut. Payton did not play in Game 1 even though he was available to play.
   2112. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:00 PM (#6080019)
I think Andre being out is probably good for the Warriors.

I think 2105 and 06 where great and possibly spot on.

I bet the Celtics, getting 4.5 and the over and Tatum to score over 26.5.I also bet looney over 6.5 points. I’m curious how Payton’s availability impacts Looney’s minutes. As a Celtics fan I was happy when Looney was on the bench.
   2113. SteveF Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6080022)
Home team is something like 14-3 after losing game 1 in the finals. That's a pretty gutsy bet.
   2114. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6080023)
Payton is lefthanded and it is difficult for me to imagine he will be effective making a shot with that hand only a little over a month removed from breaking it. But Kerr may have no choice but to play him if the defense fails again.
   2115. SteveF Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:20 PM (#6080026)
Both teams getting way more shots in the paint than last game.
   2116. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:22 PM (#6080029)
Home team is something like 14-3 after losing game 1 in the finals. That's a pretty gutsy bet.

With officiating like this, it's easy to see why the record is that lopsided.
   2117. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:27 PM (#6080031)
Green is out of control.
   2118. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6080033)
Yeah, refs don’t want a sweep.
   2119. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:39 PM (#6080040)
Brown's 2nd was a bad call, but Tatum's 2nd was just a bad decision.

Boston feels like they should be up 10.
   2120. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:41 PM (#6080041)
Boston was so sloppy with the ball that quarter. Great shot making by Tatum and Brown, though.
   2121. SteveF Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:42 PM (#6080042)
The first on G. Williams was a pretty bad call as well. 7 turnovers in the first quarter is what kept GSW in it.
   2122. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:44 PM (#6080043)
The foul they called on Grant was absolutely atrocious. Green piledrived him off his spot and then tackled him. WTF was Green arguing about? He got a gift from the refs.
   2123. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:46 PM (#6080046)
The first on G. Williams was a pretty bad call as well. 7 turnovers in the first quarter is what kept GSW in it.

Draymond got away with murder on that play. But he was getting away with #### all quarter. He was hooking on every screen. If they had called him like they were calling it the other way, he would have legit fouled out in that quarter.
   2124. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:47 PM (#6080047)
Jordan Poole has played very immature basketball so far this Finals. I think Boston's defense has flustered him.
   2125. SteveF Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:48 PM (#6080048)
Well, those were the only two that I felt were clearly wrong. I'm sure there were others both ways.
   2126. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:48 PM (#6080049)
I don't know why the phrase "hostile act" made me laugh, but it did. It's like a diplomatic statement expressing disapproval of something another nation did.

"We are deeply disappointed by Jordan Poole's hostile act against Derrick White. We urge both sides to exercise restraint and we will carefully monitor the situation moving forward."
   2127. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:50 PM (#6080051)
Playoff basketball is very difficult to officiate. Grant Williams and Smart foul a TON, and dare you to call them all. I'm not going to feel bad for the whistle Grant Williams is getting.

Golden State feels like they're rushing shots, especially at the basket. Neither team feels very comfortable once they get into the teeth of the defense. The quality of dribbling in traffic and finishing at the rim is below the quality of defense.
   2128. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:55 PM (#6080053)
Jordan Poole is absolutely killing Golden State right now. Trouble is, they really kind of need his shot creation, but I'm not sure it exists in this series. He let Theis chase him down and block him like Scalabrini playing rec league players.
   2129. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 08:59 PM (#6080054)
I’m not really sure what the answer is, but stoping play to look at that Poole “hostile” act and the deciding there was nothing to it, which seems right, was a pretty bad break for the Celtics who had a bit of transition opportunity which went away when they blew the whistle.
   2130. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:03 PM (#6080055)
Warriors doing a good job in 2Q of forcing the Celtics into some bad shots. That plus the turnovers are the difference in the game.

Derick White has been a fricking Tasmanian devil of denfense.

Smart and Dray seem to be engaging in a wrestling match nearly every play. Smart needs to be smarter than to do that.
   2131. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:07 PM (#6080056)
Obviously a lot of this is how the refs are letting them play, but this game would be like 40-40 at the half if these teams weren't hitting ridiculous rates on 3s.
   2132. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:12 PM (#6080057)
Draymond Green and daring refs to kick him out of a crucial Finals game. Name a more iconic duo.
   2133. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:13 PM (#6080058)
Would love to see Green tossed here. Hes cheapshotted everyone but the popcorn vendor.
   2134. SteveF Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:18 PM (#6080060)
If Boston can figure out how not to turn the ball over, they might actually win.

Edit: Though looking at things more closely, GSW is getting more shots in the paint. Maybe the difference there is transition attempts resulting from turnovers.
   2135. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:18 PM (#6080061)
Its unbelievable Green only has 1 foul so far. Well, 1 not counting the technical.
   2136. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:19 PM (#6080062)
SteveF: yes, they keep dribbling into double teams. I guess they, the Warriors, studied game film from the Miami series.
   2137. SteveF Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:28 PM (#6080066)
9/11 Celtics turnovers were live ball. 2/5 for GSW.
   2138. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:30 PM (#6080067)
It’s so easy to say the Celtics just need to take care of the ball, but I just don’t think it’s in the teams DNA.

I’d like to see Horford more involved in the offense.

I think Rob is hurting again. He seemed to pull up lame a bit last time he was the floor.

It’s a different series when he isn’t on the floor.

   2139. asinwreck Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:41 PM (#6080069)
This is a very entertaining game despite Klay doing nothing and JVG somehow making it back behind the mike before Mike Breen.
   2140. asinwreck Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:42 PM (#6080070)
Après Quinn, le déluge.
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
ESPN Sources: In aftermath of Quin Snyder’s departure as Utah Jazz coach, All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell is described as “unsettled, unnerved and wondering what it means for the franchise’s future.”
   2141. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6080073)
Looney has been a monster today. He was very effective in the first game as well.

Poole has been benched. My gut is he doesn't see any minutes the rest of the way, besides *maybe* when Curry is resting. And I'd have him on a really short leash in Game 3 too.
   2142. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:59 PM (#6080076)
Celtics are not getting good shots this game. Tatum and Brown are getting ATB off the dribble 3s on semi-contests, but that's it.

Both teams look incredibly uncomfortable shooting in the paint.
   2143. asinwreck Posted: June 05, 2022 at 09:59 PM (#6080077)
Holy Steph

EDIT: And, good lord, that Jordan Poole shot at the end of the quarter was from two zip codes away.
   2144. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:04 PM (#6080078)
I stand by my earlier Jordan Poole takes. I'll take them to the grave. But he just had a good 2 minutes.
   2145. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6080079)
"Man, why isn't Poole getting it to Curry? If you need a long three -"
   2146. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6080080)
Well, at least I won my Tatum and Looney bets. Sure I lost the parlay. But I’m up at least.

Absurd game. Some how felt predictable when the Celtics didn’t create distance in the first despite carrying the play. Probably post hoc bull.

   2147. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:06 PM (#6080081)
Tatun has a pretty nice line for a guy whose plus/minus is -30!
   2148. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6080083)
Lol. Now the refs are calling it fairly.
   2149. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6080084)


Celtics are not getting good shots this game. Tatum and Brown are getting ATB off the dribble 3s on semi-contests, but that's it.



I think the big issue is there is too much hero ball and not enough passing. Brown and Smart, and even White have been most guilty but even Al did it in a spot where he had an open man at the line and tried to bully through a couple guys.
   2150. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6080085)
Golden State has done a really good job of just making Tatum and Brown beat them off the dribble. Those 2 have taken 18 3s, the rest of the team has taken 9. They've mostly let Brown and Tatum and White and Smart get into the paint and tested their decision making. It's mostly been ####### terrible.
   2151. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6080086)
Spivey, I think that’s a massive understatement. Way worse than terrible. LOL.
   2152. spivey Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:24 PM (#6080088)
I know one thing, Ime Udoka ain't gonna get any coronavirus on his chin.

I also think there's a 30% chance that Draymond and Grant Williams throw fists by the end of this series.
   2153. MHS Posted: June 05, 2022 at 10:41 PM (#6080091)
GSW definitely deserved that one.

Am I the only one whose view of the series changes after every game. LOL

I’m such a shitty basketball analyst. What ever I last see I’m convinced is the truth, and my priors were all misplaced.

I really struggle with how I can think probabilistically about nearly every aspect of my life but sports, and specifically my teams sports. Such a an obvious hole. LOL.
   2154. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 11:02 PM (#6080097)
538 went from 92% to 82% in favor of the Celtics.
   2155. Cagerfan Posted: June 05, 2022 at 11:27 PM (#6080100)
   2156. Hombre Brotani Posted: June 06, 2022 at 12:02 AM (#6080105)
I’m such a shitty basketball analyst.
We can't all be Moses or Der-K.
   2157. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 06, 2022 at 08:35 AM (#6080120)
We can't all be Moses or Der-K.

Both teams shot the same 15 for 37 on 3s. So we can throw out 3pt variance for last night at least.
   2158. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 06, 2022 at 11:18 AM (#6080146)
Splitting in California is objectively good for Boston. They should still be favored IMO. It does make a difference though that GSW made adjustments, got back GPII, and then went out and soundly won Game 2. Reverse the order, GSW G1, and Boston G2, and things feel different despite it being the same 1-1 outcome.

I suspect GSW wins the series, but that may be more heart than head.
   2159. Gaelan Posted: June 06, 2022 at 11:22 AM (#6080148)
It has been years since I've posted on this site, but my daughter has become a reasonably good basketball player (by Canadian standards) which got us into watching basketball this year. I remembered this thread and have been coming here for post-game analysis all playoffs.

Anyway I just wanted to thank everyone for the free content. Keep up the good work.
   2160. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 06, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6080152)
hey gaelan! canadian standards are getting pretty good, from what i can tell!
   2161. Cagerfan Posted: June 06, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6080162)
but my daughter has become a reasonably good basketball player (by Canadian standards) which got us into watching basketball this year.
Did she turn into a giant cockroach and does she fistpump three of her arms after nailing a 3?
   2162. DCA Posted: June 06, 2022 at 12:11 PM (#6080167)
I still think GSW is the better team, so I'm still giving them the edge with the series tied, but yes splitting in SF is good for Boston, as it flips HFA.

I think it comes down to games 5 and 7 now - if Boston can win one of the those, they'll take the series. I saw a stat that GSW has won at least one road game in every playoff series going back basically forever, and have generally been a good road team. If that happens here, Boston needs one more road win.
   2163. JJ1986 Posted: June 06, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6080178)
Is anyone else aware Scott Foster has been implicated in fixing games, or in manipulating the outcome of games?

From your link:
To be clear, Foster has not been implicated in the scandal
   2164. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 06, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6080184)
I think it comes down to games 5 and 7 now - if Boston can win one of the those, they'll take the series.


Not to mock you, because I think you are right, but yes, if Boston takes game 7 they will win the series. :)
   2165. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 06, 2022 at 01:15 PM (#6080186)
I think it comes down to games 5 and 7 now - if Boston can win one of the those, they'll take the series. I saw a stat that GSW has won at least one road game in every playoff series going back basically forever, and have generally been a good road team. If that happens here, Boston needs one more road win.

Yeah, but Boston hasn't lost back to back games. So once they won game 1, the worst they can do is win 4-3.

In case it wasn't obvious, my contention is that these kind of streaks carry basically zero signal, and nobody should be paying attention to them as anything other than trivia. This one is actually extra silly though, because you have to treat the play-in games as "not playoffs." Which is, as I said, extra silly.

Golden State in their dynasty run, has been somewhere between prohibitive favourite, and possibly the greatest team of all time. So yeah, they have won a lot of road games. Shocking that. And they will probably win one against Boston. Because even if they are say only 40% (which would be my worst case estimate, they might well be 50/50 of better) to win any individual game in Boston, it would mean they have about 80% odds of winning at least one of three.
   2166. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: June 06, 2022 at 01:21 PM (#6080188)
Dang, Draymond is insufferable and I say that as a huge Curry fan who frequently roots for the Warriors. This has happened before: he gets an early T and then pushes it for the rest of the game knowing that the officials don't want to give him #2 and an ejection.

One of my all-time favorite players was Anthony Mason, who has was a proto-Draymond (versatile defender, good secondary ballhandler and passer) and also had a rep as a sometimes dirty player. But Draymond takes it all to 100
   2167. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: June 06, 2022 at 01:42 PM (#6080191)
Some quick thoughts:

• Boston is 5-4 at home in the playoffs. I don't see losing home court advantage as a huge deal for the Warriors.

• Man, Gary Payton. Having him back is a game-changer. And Bjelica played really good defense, especially on Tatum. Not sustainable, I'm sure. But that was a huge lift.

• The Dubs were great at attacking the rim in the earlier rounds. That's clearly a point of emphasis for them. A healthy Rob Williams would go a long way towards blowing up that strategy. Unfortunately, healthy Rob Williams may not be seen again this series.*

• The Celtics are an excellent team, and splitting in San Francisco is a win for them. But they've been outplayed so far. I am less worried today than I was before Game 1.

*He's an adversary right now, but I love his game. I wish him a speedy recovery.
   2168. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 06, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6080218)
Speaking of getting technicals and pushing it for the rest of the game, the Lakers announced that Darvin Ham has hired Rasheed Wallace to be on his staff.
   2169. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 06, 2022 at 02:50 PM (#6080225)
Speaking of getting technicals and pushing it for the rest of the game, the Lakers announced that Darvin Ham has hired Rasheed Wallace to be on his staff.
both teams played hard.
   2170. tshipman Posted: June 06, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6080257)
Series stuff:

Boston got the split, so should be favored overall.

Golden State has been better everywhere except at the 3p and ft lines. They were also playing at home.

Bigger picture, Boston has struggled to score overall at a 108 ortg, despite shooting 46% from 3. Even if they improve at other stuff, if the shooting declines, they will struggle to score.

I would expect to see personnel changes in game 3 from Boston. I thought at the beginning that this was not a great series for Boston to play with two bigs. I wonder if the best version of this team runs Tatum at Center.

For Golden State, adding Payton and subtracting Iguodala, while bad for the fate of the universe, was good on the court.
   2171. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 06, 2022 at 06:47 PM (#6080289)
Ham said during the presser that he is just considering Wallace, and Charania has apparently walked it back. My takeaway is not to post stuff that my buddy texted me as confirmed.
   2172. spivey Posted: June 06, 2022 at 07:05 PM (#6080290)
I don't think home court matters that much. It hasn't mattered much this playoffs, especially in Boston's series.

I think Golden State has looked better.

I think it's absolutely going at least 6 though. Boston's "oh #### we can't run an offense for a quarter" offense is better than Golden States because at least Tatum and Brown have length to shoot over guys.

I'm pretty worried about Boston's depth though. Smart doesn't seem 100%. Robert Williams is very compromised. Grant Williams has done nothing, after maybe being the best defender their previous 2 series. I think they have to get productive minutes from one of the Williams'. I don't think Horford and 4 smalls can work for the majority of the minutes.
   2173. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 07, 2022 at 12:15 PM (#6080380)
Bleacher Report previously illustrated the Atlanta Hawks' and Toronto Raptors' interest in acquiring Gobert. As Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer first mentioned, Chicago has also emerged as a potential trade destination for Gobert, sources told B/R.

Any deal that lands Gobert with the Bulls would almost certainly include Nikola Vucevic, the two-time All-Star center Chicago obtained from the Orlando Magic prior to the 2021 trade deadline. Vucevic's contract will expire at the end of the 2022-23 season, and with Zach LaVine set for a lucrative free agency, Bulls brass has been considering their options at center since February's trade deadline, sources said.

Vucevic-for-Gobert seems to make more sense for Chicago, in the Bulls' efforts to fortify a defensive attack around LaVine. And while Vucevic is generally considered a net negative on the defensive end, the popular package that's been mentioned by league executives of Vucevic and second-year forward Patrick Williams would introduce the perimeter defender the Jazz have long been said to covet.

Chicago's willingness to part with Williams remains to be seen. The Bulls were strongly resistant to including Williams in preliminary conversations with the Detroit Pistons to acquire Jerami Grant before the trade deadline, sources told B/R. Adding Coby White, whose value the Bulls previously explored on the trade market, and Javonte Green would make the money work to match Gobert's hefty contract.


link

Pretending this is a real rumor and not just speculation for a moment here. Replacing Rudy's defense with Vuc's would be a fascinating experiment for the Jazz.

But for the parts I actually care about...the Bulls defense would definitely improve, and they would still have more perimeter defenders left than the Jazz have had surrounding Rudy. The Bulls already are desperate for more shooting, and I'm on the record as down on White, but that's still a decent amount of shooting range going out the door (plus Green, who's a guy I just love). A playoff offense based on LaVine (assuming he's resigned otherwise this trade makes zero sense), DeRozan, and Rudy still leaves a lot to be desired; though whoever the Bulls get to be the 5th starter (whether it's a stretch 4 type or more of a wing with DeMar being the actual 4) would make a huge difference - they also would be rebuilding the entire bench after Caruso and Ayo. I'm also very torn on Pat Williams' potential but this is still an overall better return for him than other stuff proposed to date (your Jerami Grants and your Harrison Barneses). Is the Bulls goal to be a contender or to make a little bit more incremental progress?

   2174. spivey Posted: June 07, 2022 at 12:28 PM (#6080381)
I think Chicago would have to add more to that deal, but I think you do it 10/10 times if it's available. You're a defense first team at that point with some good individual scorers, and with Gobert + Caruso/Ball, I think you could have a very good defense.

I'm not sure Pat Williams is worth more than a lotto-protected first, Vuc is probably a slight negative asset. I think teams are going to offer more than that, whether it's future or current assets.
   2175. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6080383)
If other teams are evaluating Patrick Williams as anything more than just a guy, I think the Bulls should run to make a deal. Vuc and Williams for Gobert is a home run deal, and I am the biggest Gobert hater on the board.
   2176. asinwreck Posted: June 07, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6080393)
Williams makes sense as a Utah target, and the salaries for that deal work. I wonder if Utah would do that deal, or if they'd rather try to swap centers with Phoenix and see if the Suns will give up one of their wings instead.

Certainly a Gobert deal makes sense for the Bulls. Whether they have enough to do it is another question, but this front office has demonstrated creativity that had been lacking this century. If Ball is able to play, that is suddenly a very effective defense that still needs someone to play the 4.
   2177. DCA Posted: June 07, 2022 at 01:58 PM (#6080395)
If we are mock dealing Gobert, my latest idea was to send him to Indy for Turner + Hield or Turner + Brogdon. You could do worse than Haliburton/Gobert to build a team around.
   2178. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6080427)
Interesting tidbit from the New York Post:

“It’d be unfair for me to comment on how it looks with us and Kyrie, because to be quite frank he has some decisions to make on his own. So he has to look at what he’s going to do with his player option,” Nets GM Sean Marks said last month. “We’re looking for guys that want to come in here and be part of something bigger than themselves, play selfless, play team basketball, and be available.”

But Irving is still not only close friends with Kevin Durant, but maintains a good relationship with team owners Joe and Clara Wu Tsai. The Post reported last month that a return to Brooklyn appeared a fait accompli, and sentiment around the league is Irving will re-sign.


Apparently Kyrie has a very good relationship with the owner's wife, which helps contextualize Marks's comments (and likely frustration).
   2179. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 07, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6080432)
think indy finally wants a tear down and gobert doesn't help with that
   2180. aberg Posted: June 07, 2022 at 04:25 PM (#6080433)
I'm not exactly sure how it would work, but if all these teams are flirting with each other, it seems like Collins would be a great fit on the Bulls.
   2181. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 07, 2022 at 04:41 PM (#6080442)
Gobert makes sense for the Hawks or the Bulls.
   2182. aberg Posted: June 07, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6080447)
Here is a three-teamer that works. I think this would involve both Atlanta and Chicago sending some draft equity to Utah.
   2183. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 07, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6080456)
I don't think the Bulls would do that one, especially if they're also giving up draft picks. I'd rather have Ball on his contract than Collins on his (and probably rather have Ball straight up); Conley looks like toast so his contract is negative. Regardless of what you think about Williams, that deals just is giving him away.

As for Williams value vs on court production, I think he's exactly the type of guy we underrate their value (still only 20, less than 100games) but at least partly because teams overrate those guys. If he turns into something notable ever, it likely isn't for some time and probably after a team change. Which just makes me think it's pretty unlikely he's dealt, since the Bulls probably severely overrate him.
   2184. asinwreck Posted: June 07, 2022 at 05:24 PM (#6080461)
Derek Fisher was fired by the Sparks today. Had this happened two years ago, maybe Candace Parker doesn't leave. (I'm very glad she did, as the Sky's championship last year is a wonderful chapter in her career.)
   2185. SteveF Posted: June 07, 2022 at 05:30 PM (#6080466)
I think we're getting to the point where most/all WNBA coaches should be former WNBA players, right? If I owned a team, I can't imagine allowing my GM to hire anyone but a former WNBA player.
   2186. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 07, 2022 at 05:57 PM (#6080480)
Conley definitely has major negative value with that contract.

I think Ball would be an ideal guard to pair with Donovan, but with his injury history I think he might be a negative asset on his contract. Williams...I mean I like his size and athleticism but seems like basically a lottery ticket. Probably would be more interested if Jazz were gonna rebuild instead of trying to let Donovan build the team he wants only to watch him leave as soon as he can anyway (and not like he's nearly good enough to give that power either).

It's the opposite of what the Jazz are reportedly doing, but if they're not gonna blow it up I would much rather sell high on Donovan than Rudy.
   2187. aberg Posted: June 07, 2022 at 06:46 PM (#6080490)
I don't think the Bulls would do that one, especially if they're also giving up draft picks. I'd rather have Ball on his contract than Collins on his (and probably rather have Ball straight up); Conley looks like toast so his contract is negative. Regardless of what you think about Williams, that deals just is giving him away.


Yeah, that's fair. My read is that Collins > Ball due to health. Both contracts seem fair and Bulls are deeper at PG than at forward. Taking back Conley is probably enough of a tax that they don't have to give up much draft equity- they're probably more like a 2nd rounder. Atlanta would owe at least a 1st to Utah here.
   2188. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 07, 2022 at 07:13 PM (#6080497)
It's the opposite of what the Jazz are reportedly doing, but if they're not gonna blow it up I would much rather sell high on Donovan than Rudy.

This is where I've been on the Jazz too. All of the noise about Gobert has kind of overshadowed the fact that Mitchell, as an undersized zero guard who doesn't really play defense, is an odd fit of his own. I think they Jazz both would get a markedly better return trading Mitchell and probably have an easier time finding someone to give them 80% of what he does. I could be overestimating the market based on the fact that the Knicks have openly coveted him for a while, though.
   2189. DCA Posted: June 07, 2022 at 07:27 PM (#6080501)
Caveat that I have no actual knowledge of the Jazz locker room, but the clear impression that I have of the two is that Rudy is an annoying red-ass that everybody hates, and Donovan is a cool dude that everyone likes.

Also Mitchell is younger and cheaper, and Gobert is obviously better and should bring more in return.

If they are getting rid of one, they really ought to blow it up and get rid of both, but I understand it might be hard to sell to the fanbase (the return of JIngles and GHightower only goes so far).
   2190. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 07, 2022 at 07:38 PM (#6080509)
If they are getting rid of one, they really ought to blow it up and get rid of both, but I understand it might be hard to sell to the fanbase

I mean this does indeed seem to be the core issue the Jazz are at least trying to tapdance around right now. Unclear if Snyder's departure dooms this (if rumors that they begged him to stay are true) or not, also.
   2191. Cagerfan Posted: June 07, 2022 at 07:38 PM (#6080510)
   2192. tshipman Posted: June 07, 2022 at 07:58 PM (#6080516)
I mean this does indeed seem to be the core issue the Jazz are at least trying to tapdance around right now. Unclear if Snyder's departure dooms this (if rumors that they begged him to stay are true) or not, also.


I feel like the Jazz are kind of a mess right now. They're terrified of losing Donovan Mitchell, who has never made All-NBA, has had a net negative on-off the last three years, and is entering his 6th season. Their best player in the regular season has an obvious and exploitable flaw in the playoffs. Their coach resigned, despite having won a power struggle last year.

Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson are all on some degree of negative value contracts.

The obvious answer is blow it up because there's no path forward, but they're clearly terrified of doing so.
   2193. DCA Posted: June 07, 2022 at 07:58 PM (#6080517)
Mostly because I want to see two Bogdanovices in the starting lineup.
   2194. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 07, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6080526)
Caveat that I have no actual knowledge of the Jazz locker room, but the clear impression that I have of the two is that Rudy is an annoying red-ass that everybody hates, and Donovan is a cool dude that everyone likes.


There were some quotes from Conley of all people throughout the season that may have been directed at Donovan basically playing selfish basketball (pretty much would have to be him or him and Clarkson), but I think personality wise this is spot on. Rudy is also just kind of weird for a professional athlete and I think rubs other players the wrong way even outside of yelling at them on defense or criticizing their play to the media (and tbf, he rips his own play too).

Tim McMahon and Lowe both think Snyder was telling the truth in his reasoning for resigning, and it seems likely to me too. I think he's a very smart coach who realized he is not the answer to fixing the current lockerroom/play style issues of this roster, and would rather take a year off post hip surgery than deal with it for another season or go to the Spurs if Pop retires.

Also I bet Jazz could get an asset for Bogey. Not anything great but he's still a great shooter, can play adequate team defense, seems to be a good lockerroom guy, etc. But I think they're in denial about how good Donovan is, how good he will become, and how likely he is to want to stay, and new ownership doesn't want a rebuild this early on so they're gonna make a stupid Rudy trade to appease Donovan and lock themselves into a 40-45 win team the next couple seasons. Like Donovan is my favorite player. He seems like an awesome person and I don't blame any player for wanting some control over franchise decisions if they can get it, but he's also pretty clearly not good enough for a team to give him any real say in major decisions.
   2195. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 07, 2022 at 08:40 PM (#6080527)
Mostly because I want to see two Bogdanovices in the starting lineup.
i guess there's a chance you live to see the reunification of yugoslavia.
   2196. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 07, 2022 at 09:06 PM (#6080532)
i guess there's a chance you live to see the reunification of yugoslavia.


Inshallah we all will
   2197. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 07, 2022 at 09:13 PM (#6080535)
I have said a few times that the Utah org since the Stockton/Malone years has been characterized by stability. So, I wouldn't say they are terrified of blowing it up--seems like the fanbase is loyal/patient etc.--but more that it goes against the organizational philosophy (assuming that they do not want to do it).
   2198. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2022 at 09:41 PM (#6080540)
in case anyone cares about this stuff:

Danny Neckel
@DNeckel19
Most watched basketball games of the year so far:

17.0M UNC vs Kansas
16.2M UNC vs Duke
13.6M UNC vs St Peter's
11.9M NBA Finals Game 2
11.4M NBA Finals Game 1
11.2M Duke vs Mich St
11.1M Villanova vs Kansas
10.3M Duke vs Arkansas
10.1M Purdue vs St Peter's
4:25 PM · Jun 7, 2022
   2199. spivey Posted: June 08, 2022 at 09:47 AM (#6080600)
I don't have a sub, but The Athletic dropped a juicy piece this morning about a potential COVID outbreak that happened during the Suns WCSF matchup vs. Dallas. We are in this interesting situation where teams are motivated to not tell the truth, especially if you don't think it will lead to the game being delayed.
   2200. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 08, 2022 at 11:13 AM (#6080618)
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