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Friday, April 15, 2022
2022 NBA Playoffs thread
I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.
Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4141 comment(s)
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Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs
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This is where I am, too. In the 3pt NBA, 12 points is no blowout.
Zach Lowe and Doris Burke had a reaction post that gibed with that posted blog post (and my observations, but I'm no analyst). They attributed Boston's 4th quarter defense to them going small, which got Looney off the floor, and shifting from the drop coverage they'd used for the first three quarters (and decently after the first). Their broader take was that the way Boston defended and made Poole a liability on both ends boded ill for the Ws, given how central Curry/Poole/Draymond lineups were to the Ws this season.
I'm very curious to see how the Ws adjust, of course. Given how this postseason has gone for Boston, I expect a befuddling loss that throws the lessons of game one into question, but we'll see.
In addition, there's some kind of weird separation between the Finals and other playoff games. As recently as ... last series, there was a team that lost game 1 by 11 points and went on to win the series.
The Warriors switched more probably because they didn't want to start every possession immediately in rotation. I suspect that's a product of the Celtics being better across the board at attacking players in rotation/closeouts than Dallas. If DFS or Bullock are dribbling, that possession probably isn't going to end well. Most of the Celtics players can drive and kick once given an advantage created by Tatum, Brown, and occasionally Smart.
I think R. Williams can stay on the court. He had bad moments, but I suspect he can be coached up to force players inside the three point line. The decision to start him on Wiggins was likely a product of Golden State playing two non-shooters. If Wiggins is setting the screen, that's two shooters you can help off of behind. I'm not sure it worked out all that well as offensive rebounds became a pretty big problem. The pre-switching helped keep Williams out of screening action and closer to the basket, but that can only work so much.
Klay, Poole, Curry maybe/probably can't play at the same time. It doesn't look like Klay can guard Brown. The argument in favor of putting Draymond on Brown is that maybe you can short circuit Boston's offense if Tatum/Brown can't create the initial advantage the offense needs to get their drive and kick game going. Their other players (maybe aside from Smart) aren't effective unless they attack advantages gifted to them by the two wings. The downside is you lose Draymond's help defense as he'd need to stay more attached to Brown than Horford.
Boston is the better team when going small. I think Golden State needs to stay big or biggish with Looney or Porter. GPII might change this calculus completely, but GPII probably better allows the Celtics to play big and gives a guy to stash R. Williams on and if it's GPII setting screens, he doesn't need to be defended above the break at all. The downside to playing Looney over Porter is it greatly reduces the effectiveness of Curry spread PnR. Two non-shooters is probably too many help points. But maybe the offensive rebounding/defense is enough to justify playing Looney over Porter even late in games.
GSW is surprisingly light in shot creation for a team that's this good offensively. That's probably a large reason why their record in the finals is somewhat mediocre (talk about first world problems!) without Durant. I wonder what their half court offense is going to look like later in the series once the Celtics are more comfortable playing against their offensive rules/reads. Or maybe they just never get comfortable.
I think Robert Williams likely does get played out of the series. Probably not completely, but at least to the level he did against Milwaukee. He doesn't seem very comfortable coming up to the level on ball screens or off ball screens. If I'm Golden State, I'm trying to attack him much more, and I also agree the pre-switching isn't going to work perfectly, and I think can/will lead to wide open shots some because it's much more dependent on on-the-fly or instinctual decision making. I also think we may see more Luka-style defense when Celts have 2 bigs out there, which is advantage GS. I think Boston against the best teams is better as a small team. It'll be interesting to see if Golden State tries to play big while Boston plays small, if so, I expect we'll see more MOML shots from Smart.
Golden State absolutely needs Poole to be able to create off the dribble. I don't think system buckets alone can win you games.
I'll also say the eye test is absolutely deceiving to all of us. People dragged Smart for taking a bunch of 3s late in Game 7. Most of those, I'd say, were shots he has to take. I think many of the same people praising Boston now would be hammering them if the Horford/Smart/White troika were 5/23 from 3.
Golden State obviously will pay a lot of money, but they've got a ton of decisions to make about their roster for next year.
I think 2105 and 06 where great and possibly spot on.
I bet the Celtics, getting 4.5 and the over and Tatum to score over 26.5.I also bet looney over 6.5 points. I’m curious how Payton’s availability impacts Looney’s minutes. As a Celtics fan I was happy when Looney was on the bench.
With officiating like this, it's easy to see why the record is that lopsided.
Boston feels like they should be up 10.
Draymond got away with murder on that play. But he was getting away with #### all quarter. He was hooking on every screen. If they had called him like they were calling it the other way, he would have legit fouled out in that quarter.
"We are deeply disappointed by Jordan Poole's hostile act against Derrick White. We urge both sides to exercise restraint and we will carefully monitor the situation moving forward."
Golden State feels like they're rushing shots, especially at the basket. Neither team feels very comfortable once they get into the teeth of the defense. The quality of dribbling in traffic and finishing at the rim is below the quality of defense.
Derick White has been a fricking Tasmanian devil of denfense.
Smart and Dray seem to be engaging in a wrestling match nearly every play. Smart needs to be smarter than to do that.
Edit: Though looking at things more closely, GSW is getting more shots in the paint. Maybe the difference there is transition attempts resulting from turnovers.
I’d like to see Horford more involved in the offense.
I think Rob is hurting again. He seemed to pull up lame a bit last time he was the floor.
It’s a different series when he isn’t on the floor.
Poole has been benched. My gut is he doesn't see any minutes the rest of the way, besides *maybe* when Curry is resting. And I'd have him on a really short leash in Game 3 too.
Both teams look incredibly uncomfortable shooting in the paint.
EDIT: And, good lord, that Jordan Poole shot at the end of the quarter was from two zip codes away.
Absurd game. Some how felt predictable when the Celtics didn’t create distance in the first despite carrying the play. Probably post hoc bull.
I think the big issue is there is too much hero ball and not enough passing. Brown and Smart, and even White have been most guilty but even Al did it in a spot where he had an open man at the line and tried to bully through a couple guys.
I also think there's a 30% chance that Draymond and Grant Williams throw fists by the end of this series.
Am I the only one whose view of the series changes after every game. LOL
I’m such a shitty basketball analyst. What ever I last see I’m convinced is the truth, and my priors were all misplaced.
I really struggle with how I can think probabilistically about nearly every aspect of my life but sports, and specifically my teams sports. Such a an obvious hole. LOL.
Both teams shot the same 15 for 37 on 3s. So we can throw out 3pt variance for last night at least.
I suspect GSW wins the series, but that may be more heart than head.
Anyway I just wanted to thank everyone for the free content. Keep up the good work.
I think it comes down to games 5 and 7 now - if Boston can win one of the those, they'll take the series. I saw a stat that GSW has won at least one road game in every playoff series going back basically forever, and have generally been a good road team. If that happens here, Boston needs one more road win.
From your link:
Not to mock you, because I think you are right, but yes, if Boston takes game 7 they will win the series. :)
Yeah, but Boston hasn't lost back to back games. So once they won game 1, the worst they can do is win 4-3.
In case it wasn't obvious, my contention is that these kind of streaks carry basically zero signal, and nobody should be paying attention to them as anything other than trivia. This one is actually extra silly though, because you have to treat the play-in games as "not playoffs." Which is, as I said, extra silly.
Golden State in their dynasty run, has been somewhere between prohibitive favourite, and possibly the greatest team of all time. So yeah, they have won a lot of road games. Shocking that. And they will probably win one against Boston. Because even if they are say only 40% (which would be my worst case estimate, they might well be 50/50 of better) to win any individual game in Boston, it would mean they have about 80% odds of winning at least one of three.
One of my all-time favorite players was Anthony Mason, who has was a proto-Draymond (versatile defender, good secondary ballhandler and passer) and also had a rep as a sometimes dirty player. But Draymond takes it all to 100
• Boston is 5-4 at home in the playoffs. I don't see losing home court advantage as a huge deal for the Warriors.
• Man, Gary Payton. Having him back is a game-changer. And Bjelica played really good defense, especially on Tatum. Not sustainable, I'm sure. But that was a huge lift.
• The Dubs were great at attacking the rim in the earlier rounds. That's clearly a point of emphasis for them. A healthy Rob Williams would go a long way towards blowing up that strategy. Unfortunately, healthy Rob Williams may not be seen again this series.*
• The Celtics are an excellent team, and splitting in San Francisco is a win for them. But they've been outplayed so far. I am less worried today than I was before Game 1.
*He's an adversary right now, but I love his game. I wish him a speedy recovery.
Boston got the split, so should be favored overall.
Golden State has been better everywhere except at the 3p and ft lines. They were also playing at home.
Bigger picture, Boston has struggled to score overall at a 108 ortg, despite shooting 46% from 3. Even if they improve at other stuff, if the shooting declines, they will struggle to score.
I would expect to see personnel changes in game 3 from Boston. I thought at the beginning that this was not a great series for Boston to play with two bigs. I wonder if the best version of this team runs Tatum at Center.
For Golden State, adding Payton and subtracting Iguodala, while bad for the fate of the universe, was good on the court.
I think Golden State has looked better.
I think it's absolutely going at least 6 though. Boston's "oh #### we can't run an offense for a quarter" offense is better than Golden States because at least Tatum and Brown have length to shoot over guys.
I'm pretty worried about Boston's depth though. Smart doesn't seem 100%. Robert Williams is very compromised. Grant Williams has done nothing, after maybe being the best defender their previous 2 series. I think they have to get productive minutes from one of the Williams'. I don't think Horford and 4 smalls can work for the majority of the minutes.
link
Pretending this is a real rumor and not just speculation for a moment here. Replacing Rudy's defense with Vuc's would be a fascinating experiment for the Jazz.
But for the parts I actually care about...the Bulls defense would definitely improve, and they would still have more perimeter defenders left than the Jazz have had surrounding Rudy. The Bulls already are desperate for more shooting, and I'm on the record as down on White, but that's still a decent amount of shooting range going out the door (plus Green, who's a guy I just love). A playoff offense based on LaVine (assuming he's resigned otherwise this trade makes zero sense), DeRozan, and Rudy still leaves a lot to be desired; though whoever the Bulls get to be the 5th starter (whether it's a stretch 4 type or more of a wing with DeMar being the actual 4) would make a huge difference - they also would be rebuilding the entire bench after Caruso and Ayo. I'm also very torn on Pat Williams' potential but this is still an overall better return for him than other stuff proposed to date (your Jerami Grants and your Harrison Barneses). Is the Bulls goal to be a contender or to make a little bit more incremental progress?
I'm not sure Pat Williams is worth more than a lotto-protected first, Vuc is probably a slight negative asset. I think teams are going to offer more than that, whether it's future or current assets.
Certainly a Gobert deal makes sense for the Bulls. Whether they have enough to do it is another question, but this front office has demonstrated creativity that had been lacking this century. If Ball is able to play, that is suddenly a very effective defense that still needs someone to play the 4.
Apparently Kyrie has a very good relationship with the owner's wife, which helps contextualize Marks's comments (and likely frustration).
As for Williams value vs on court production, I think he's exactly the type of guy we underrate their value (still only 20, less than 100games) but at least partly because teams overrate those guys. If he turns into something notable ever, it likely isn't for some time and probably after a team change. Which just makes me think it's pretty unlikely he's dealt, since the Bulls probably severely overrate him.
I think Ball would be an ideal guard to pair with Donovan, but with his injury history I think he might be a negative asset on his contract. Williams...I mean I like his size and athleticism but seems like basically a lottery ticket. Probably would be more interested if Jazz were gonna rebuild instead of trying to let Donovan build the team he wants only to watch him leave as soon as he can anyway (and not like he's nearly good enough to give that power either).
It's the opposite of what the Jazz are reportedly doing, but if they're not gonna blow it up I would much rather sell high on Donovan than Rudy.
Yeah, that's fair. My read is that Collins > Ball due to health. Both contracts seem fair and Bulls are deeper at PG than at forward. Taking back Conley is probably enough of a tax that they don't have to give up much draft equity- they're probably more like a 2nd rounder. Atlanta would owe at least a 1st to Utah here.
This is where I've been on the Jazz too. All of the noise about Gobert has kind of overshadowed the fact that Mitchell, as an undersized zero guard who doesn't really play defense, is an odd fit of his own. I think they Jazz both would get a markedly better return trading Mitchell and probably have an easier time finding someone to give them 80% of what he does. I could be overestimating the market based on the fact that the Knicks have openly coveted him for a while, though.
Also Mitchell is younger and cheaper, and Gobert is obviously better and should bring more in return.
If they are getting rid of one, they really ought to blow it up and get rid of both, but I understand it might be hard to sell to the fanbase (the return of JIngles and GHightower only goes so far).
I mean this does indeed seem to be the core issue the Jazz are at least trying to tapdance around right now. Unclear if Snyder's departure dooms this (if rumors that they begged him to stay are true) or not, also.
I feel like the Jazz are kind of a mess right now. They're terrified of losing Donovan Mitchell, who has never made All-NBA, has had a net negative on-off the last three years, and is entering his 6th season. Their best player in the regular season has an obvious and exploitable flaw in the playoffs. Their coach resigned, despite having won a power struggle last year.
Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson are all on some degree of negative value contracts.
The obvious answer is blow it up because there's no path forward, but they're clearly terrified of doing so.
There were some quotes from Conley of all people throughout the season that may have been directed at Donovan basically playing selfish basketball (pretty much would have to be him or him and Clarkson), but I think personality wise this is spot on. Rudy is also just kind of weird for a professional athlete and I think rubs other players the wrong way even outside of yelling at them on defense or criticizing their play to the media (and tbf, he rips his own play too).
Tim McMahon and Lowe both think Snyder was telling the truth in his reasoning for resigning, and it seems likely to me too. I think he's a very smart coach who realized he is not the answer to fixing the current lockerroom/play style issues of this roster, and would rather take a year off post hip surgery than deal with it for another season or go to the Spurs if Pop retires.
Also I bet Jazz could get an asset for Bogey. Not anything great but he's still a great shooter, can play adequate team defense, seems to be a good lockerroom guy, etc. But I think they're in denial about how good Donovan is, how good he will become, and how likely he is to want to stay, and new ownership doesn't want a rebuild this early on so they're gonna make a stupid Rudy trade to appease Donovan and lock themselves into a 40-45 win team the next couple seasons. Like Donovan is my favorite player. He seems like an awesome person and I don't blame any player for wanting some control over franchise decisions if they can get it, but he's also pretty clearly not good enough for a team to give him any real say in major decisions.
Inshallah we all will
Danny Neckel
@DNeckel19
Most watched basketball games of the year so far:
17.0M UNC vs Kansas
16.2M UNC vs Duke
13.6M UNC vs St Peter's
11.9M NBA Finals Game 2
11.4M NBA Finals Game 1
11.2M Duke vs Mich St
11.1M Villanova vs Kansas
10.3M Duke vs Arkansas
10.1M Purdue vs St Peter's
4:25 PM · Jun 7, 2022
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