Flipped.

If you aren't going to throw anything in, I'm not going to make the deal

reasonable! you're a contender. this was more of a "i wonder if memphis is tired of brooks" kind of thing which could spur a broader deal.

i'll write up the hawks soon, barring a surprise deal (as much as i'm trying/flailing around).

Minnesota/TFTIO up for #48

1. Oklahoma City (Harlond) (trade) -- Jabari Smith Jr, Auburn
2. Portland (mike f) (trade) -- Paolo Banchero, Duke
3. San Antonio (GregF)(trade) -- Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
4. Sacramento (Votto) -- Benedict Mathurin, Arizona
5. Detroit (Cross-Eyed) -- Shaedon Sharpe, kentucky
6. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) -- Jaden Ivey, Purdue
7. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) (trade) -- Dyson Daniels, G-League
8. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) (trade) -- Keegan Murray, Iowa
9. Houston (Oriole Tragic)(trade) -- Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
10. Washington (HW American) -- Tyrone 'TyTy' Washington, Jr., Kentucky
11. New York (. . . . . .) -- Jalen Duren (then traded to San Antonio), Memphis
12. Chicago (Dandy)(trade) -- Tari Eason, LSU
13. Charlotte (JJ1986) -- AJ Griffin, Duke
14. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) (trade) -- Nikola Jovic, Int'l
15. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Malaki Branham, tOSU
16. Atlanta (Der-K) -- Ousmane Dieng, Int'l
17. Houston (Oriole Tragic) -- EJ Liddell, OSU
18. Oklahoma City (Harlond)(trade) -- Jalen Williams, Santa Clara
19. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Josh Minott, Memphis
20. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Dalen Terry, Arizona
21. Denver (asinwreck) -- Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest
22. Memphis (tshipman) -- Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
23. Philadelphia (57i66135.) -- Caleb Houstan, Michigan
24. Milwaukee (Ken Griffey) -- Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
25. New York (. . . . .) (trade) -- Mark Williams, Duke
26. Charlotte (JJ1986) (trade) -- Justin Lewis, Marquette
27. Miami (aberg) -- Ochai Agbagi, Kansas
28. New Orleans (tshipman) (trade) -- Marjon Beauchamp, G-League
29. Memphis (tshipman) -- Gabriele Procida, Int'l
30. Denver (asinwreck) -- Walker Kessler, Auburn

31. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) -- Kendall Brown, Baylor
32. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) -- Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
33. Toronto (Baseball Obscura) -- Jaden Hardy, G-League
34. Oklahoma City (Harlond) -- Wendell Moore, Duke
35. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) -- Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga
36. Portland (mike f) -- Christian Koloko, Arizona
37. Sacramento (Votto) -- Peyton Watson, UCLA
38. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Khalifa Diop, Gran Canaria
39. Golden State (DCA) (trade) -- Jaylin Williams, Arkansas
40. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Ismaël Kamagate, Paris Basketball
41. Golden State (DCA)(trade) -- Scotty Pippen Jr, Vanderbilt
42. San Antonio (GregF) -- Trevor Keels, Duke
43. Atlanta (Der-K) -- Christian Braun, Kansas
44. LA Clippers (harlond) -- Matteo Spagnolo, Vanoli Cremona
45. Charlotte (JJ1986) -- Max Christie, Michigan St
46. Detroit (Cross-Eyed) -- Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
47. Memphis (tshipman) -- David Roddy, Colorado St
48. Minnesota (TFTIO) --
49. Sacramento (Votto) --
50. Minnesota (TFTIO) --
51. Atlanta (Der-K)(trade) --
52. Atlanta (Der-K)(trade) --
53. Boston (winter's night) --
54. Milwaukee (forfeited over Bogdan Bogdanovich)
55. Miami (forfeited over Kyle Lowry)
56. Washington (HW American) --
57. LA Clippers (harlond)(trade) --
58. Cleveland (DCA) --
59. Portland (mike f) --
60. San Antonio (GregF) (trade) --

TRADES
1. Hawks/Der-K trade Jalen Johnson & Skylar Mays to the Thunder/harlond for Muscala, Williams, the Hornets' 2024 2nd round pick, and the Hawks' 2025 2nd round pick.
2. Pacers/Mellow Mouse trade Myles Turner to Pelicans/tshipman for 2022 #8, Jaxson Hayes, and Jonas Valancuinas.
3. Magic/Athletic Supporter trade the 2022 #1 pick to Thunder/harlond for the 2022 #2 pick and the Wizards' 2023 1st round pick (various protections)
4. Magic/Athletic Supporter trade the 2022 #2 pick to Portland/mike f for the 2022 #7 pick, the Bucks' 2025 1st round pick (protected 1-4), and Nassir Little
5. HOU trades #3 to SA for #9, #20, #38
6. Hornets/JJ1986 trade PJ Washington to Bulls/Dandy for Blazers' 2023 1st round pick (lottery protected in 2023 & thereafter)
7. SA/GregF trades McDermott, Langford, #25 to NY/. . . . . for Randle, #11 (Duren), #42
8. Cleveland/DCA trades Sexton (sign and trade: 4/70+), #14, CLE's 2026 1st (has some protections) to Indiana/MM for Malcolm Brogdon.
9. HOU trades #26 and 2023 FRP (MIL) to CHA for #15.
10. Bulls/Dandy trade Coby White, #18, Marko Simonovic to Thunder/Harlond for #12, Sixers' 2025 1st round pick (lightly protected as per Horford trade), rights to Vasilije Micic
11. Bulls/Dandy trade Patrick Williams to Spurs/GregF for Jakob Poeltl, Bulls' 2025 1st round pick (protected/conditional from DeRozan S+T), Bulls' 2025 2nd round pick
12. NOP/tshipman trades Devonte' Graham to Cleveland/DCA for Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler, #39
13. SA/GregF trades Primo, Richardson, Collins to IND/Mellow Mouse for Hield, #60
14. New Orleans/tshipman trades #39, #41, #52 to Golden State/DCA for #28
15. Lakers/Hombre trades Westbrook, 2027 1st to CHA/JJ1986 for Hogwash, Rozier
16. GSW/DCA trades #51, #52, #57 to Atlanta/Der-K for Miami's 2024 2nd, Chaundee Brown, and "cash considerations"
17. Atlanta/Der-K trades Gallinari, OKC's 2025 2nd, and $4.73m to OKC/harlond for the rights to Devon Hardin
18. Atlanta/Der-K trades #44 and #57 to LAC/harlond for #43

At 48, the Wovles take Dom Barlow, Overtime Elite. He's big! And young! why not?

I'm going to do a 180 almost immediately and decide to hang onto Westbrook. I've already made 3 trades and I really shouldn't be dumping any of my assets right now. If he works out, I can try to move Russ for neutral value at the trade deadline and if not, the Hornets are going to be bad next season anyway. Write-up:

Charlotte Hornets

Trade PJ Washington to Chicago for a lottery-protected first-round-pick from Portland.
Trade the #15 pick to Houston for the #26 pick and Milwaukee’s 2023 first-round-pick.
Trade Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier to the Los Angeles Lakers for Russell Westbrook and the Lakers’ 2027 first-round-pick (unprotected).
13. AJ Griffin, wing, Duke
26. Justin Lewis, forward, Marquette
45. Max Christie, wing, Michigan State

The Hornets are once again not in the best spot roster-wise, but with LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges, we are looking to build towards the near-term future. With that in mind, our goal in this draft is overall talent accumulation.

My initial hope was to take Tari Eason with the 13th pick (but I don’t want to trade up for him) and to either take Jalen Duran with the 15th pick or to trade it if he was off the board by then. My draft philosophy has moved away from drafting for positional need (the likelihood that the power forward you draft at the end of the first round is ready to step in a year later and start for the team is small), but I was still intrigued by adding a young big to pair with my emerging perimeter talent.

Unfortunately, the two players whom I had targeted went off the board with the 11th and 12th picks. At 13, I took AJ Griffin from Duke. He was the only player left with a lottery-grade on my board. He’s an athletic 2-guard who can shoot, but more importantly he has all-star potential at the top end of his outcomes. He gets open without the ball, which makes him a good fit with the players already on the roster. He was poor on defense, but hopefully a combination of coaching and continued recovery from old injuries will help on that end.

I wanted to trade down from 15, assuming that I could get one of a batch of similar players with a later first-round pick. Dalen Terry was picked before my spot, and I ended up choosing Justin Lewis over MarJon Beauchamp. Lewis is another player who has possible high-end outcomes. He’s got all the size that you can ask for with 6’7” height and a giant 7’3” wingspan. He has potential to be a good switch defender and he can move well with the ball in his hands. If he doesn’t develop a shot, he’s probably always a role-player, but that’s a gamble I like taking late in the first round.

For trading down, I picked up Milwaukee’s 2023 first-round pick, one of 3 future firsts that I added over the course of the draft. It’s a good haul for a team that needs to improve most of the spots on the roster and was already potentially down a future first rounder that was shipped out to add Kai Jones last draft.

One of the picks is an unprotected 2027 from the Lakers for taking on Russell Westbrook. I consider it positive-value to get off of Gordon Hayward’s salary and moving on from the correctly-compensated Terry Rozier gives me huge salary-cap space in the summer of 2023. The team may want to move the Lakers pick for something in the nearer-term, but it being completely unprotected could also turn it into a hugely valuable asset.

The third future first-rounder is for moving PJ Washington to Chicago. Washington is a better fit on a better team; his lower ceiling is not what the Hornets are looking for right now and he would be walking for nothing next summer (or more likely be traded at the deadline if we kept him).

Moving PJ does bring up the slight issue of how to fill the minutes for the 2022-23 season. At guard we’ll hope that Griffin and James Bouknight are ready to backup Ball and Westbrook, but we should probably add one more veteran on the level of Ish Smith who served as third PG last season.

Our entire plan revolves around bringing Miles Bridges back, hopefully on a 5-year deal, but at least matching any offer that comes his way. Kelly Oubre will play as the third forward and between Jalen McDaniels, Justin Lewis and JT Thor, hopefully we’ll have enough depth. We’re missing a starter at PF, though.

With our moves, we are able to keep Mason Plumlee on the books at this salary and stay under the luxury tax even when giving Bridges a max-deal. I have my salary commitments at about $136 million with 12 players. If we can get a 5th guard with the bi-annual exception and sign second-round pick Max Christie to a minimum-salary deal (Christie’s another guy with a high ceiling, but won’t help this season), I have my commitments at $140.5 million.

With the projected luxury tax line of $149 million, that allows me to use $8.5 of the mid-level exception on a starting power forward (I think we can use the rest of the exception to give Christie a 3-year minimum deal if he’ll take it.) We probably need someone who can play some time at center, because this is our depth chart:

PG: LaMelo Ball, (backed up by Westbrook), (third PG)
SG: Russell Westbrook, James Bouknight, AJ Griffin, Max Christie
SF: Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre, Justin Lewis
PF: (Some starter), Jalen McDaniels, JT Thor
C: Mason Plumlee, Nick Richards, Kai Jones

In closing, I’m happy with the moves. No slam-dunks, but tons of upside. We can keep Bridges, avoid the luxury tax next season, likely make an additional pick in each of the next 2 drafts (the Portland pick from Chicago is lottery protected) and have another high-upside asset in the 2027 pick. And we are looking at about $50 million in salary-cap space next summer with Westbrook, Plumlee and Oubre coming off the books.

From 9:58am ET:

Mike Vorkunov @MikeVorkunov
If you're tracking the volatile betting market for the No. 1 pick, which were a roller coaster overnight and saw Paolo Banchero become a betting favorite for a time, BetMGM has the following odds:

Jabari Smith Jr. at -550
Paolo Banchero at +200
Chet Holmgren at +1000

Seems like a super weird thing to bet on, but OK.

Votto is selecting John Butler, C, FSU, so Minnesota is right back on the clock at pick 50.

I've got a buddy with a decent amount of money on Smith. He figures "trust woj, it's easy money"

Atlanta f'ed up. The real team and my version.

I mean, it’d be difficult for me not to, give the operating principles I’m starting from:
- Ownership “wants” the team to improve, not settle for the play-in
- This is not the basis of a championship contender
- I can’t trade Trae.

This club looks like they're on a path to mediocrity - one (deeply flawed) star, several good players, a gaping hole at one position that they've been unable to fill - I think the answer might be to try to reconfigure the squad entirely. I don’t necessarily have the pieces to do that, though – non-rookie deal players are largely getting paid about what they should, so you need a trade partner to fall in love with a given guy to move him – and the remaining rookie deal guys are either highly paid without being tent poles to build around (Hunter, Okongwu), Jalen Johnson (now dealt), or expiring junk. At least the Hawks are working with a pick net surplus in the future, but there’s not a clear enough path, imo, to justify leveraging it in a given direction as of yet.
I didn’t manage to do so – my f up. The real team’s is in staying pat to get here when there were clear moves to make last year.

So, what is this team? The offense is better than you think – narrowly missing ranking first (first!, behind the Jazz) in the league for offensive rating, despite rough early season patches by a number of players. They did this with above average shooting (though not as you might initially suspect, given the roster, by launching a ton of threes – they actually took less than the league average) and through Young’s heliocentric approach to offense – he turned over the ball a ton, the team did less than any other in the league. On the flip side, they were 26th in defensive rating, despite having some decent to good defenders in a key role. Well, one role – center. Capela, by all accounts, is good defensively (though he had issues for a sustained chunk of last season), Okongwu might already be superior when he isn’t committing a dumb foul. Otherwise, it’s rough out there - Collins has improved to about average, the same territory Bogdanovic is in. Huerter is slightly subpar, but only slightly. Wright was good. That leaves Hunter and Young. Young is probably the worst defender in the NBA and, in a league that is more focused on dragging the weak link in a chain than maybe ever before, it’s a real problem. Also, because he’s tiny, it complicates how you do switching (other guys will be bigger and bigger still than the tiny and frail Trae). So, the Hawks play a drop d and hope for the best.

Oh, and Hunter? He’s a tough one because I do get why Atlanta’s actual brass seems enamored with him, even as I’m trying to ship him out of town. He’s 6-7 barefoot with a 7-2 wingspan and credibly guards 2 through 4, looking decent doing it. He can create his own offense (Hawks beyond Young, the departed Gallo, and arguably BogBog struggle with this), shoots and hits threes – on paper, he’s what Atlanta wants/needs here. (Like Memphis*, who I kept pestering for deals, the Hawks crave a big 3 and d wing who can magically solve their problems and be “modern”.) The catch is that it hasn’t shown up on the court – advanced metrics keep recording him as a negative on both offense and defense when he plays, at least in the regular season. He’s still just 24 and it could happen for him … I just don’t want to keep investing minutes in that possibility.

* Memphis also more closely matches my personal aesthetics and biases for how I think to build than any other team in the league; this is not necessarily to their credit, it just is. Includes a lot of weird bodies or skill sets that you've got to morph into a coherent whole, some grit and grindy types, etc... I swear, I've picked so many dudes that have played for them over the years in one mock draft or another (checks (I do two mocks per year, so I am double dipping sometimes): Bane, Anderson, JV (who's gone now but still), Melton, JJJ, Clarke, Tillman, and Konchar. Wow.)

Otherwise, this team’s rotation guys are what they are – decent, not that old players on generally reasonable contracts (especially if they play more like they did in 2020-21 than 21-22) but without breakout potential.

What I did do that’s good is get rid of the deadweight (until I replace it with new deadweight?). The Hawks had a lot of actively bad players sitting on the roster (or, in Gallo’s case, a still fine offensive player forced into a defensive role he couldn’t handle in his heyday much less for this leaky ship) that will not be retained in free agency. (Possible exception: Kevin Knox, who I like as a possible second draft bench offense guy. He has a ways to go, though.) In return for the interesting but currently bad Jalen Johnson, I got two players a rebuilding OKC team has no need for in Mike Muscala and Kenrich Williams. Williams has the obvious immediate utility – he guards the two through four well (and vaults to what I’d consider the best defender on the team outside of the pivot), is a decent rebounder, a secondary playmaker, and is juuuuusssttt okay enough from three to help there. (Please do not look at his free throw percentage.) We will try to extend him.

Muscala is trickier – one of the more underrated backup fives in the league who takes a lot of threes (and relatively high difficulty ones at that!) while also offering solid defense as a drop guy. Absent more trades, I guess we’d try him as a backup four (this is a bad idea) but he’s definitely worth someone – me or otherwise – giving him a real role. (The catch is: Capela should play, Okongwu should play, Muscala should play – I don’t need all three.)
Fun thing! I like guys who are average or better on both offense and defense (you know, unlike most people), a player type Atlanta is low on. One goofy search I did was to use the DARKO app and view the list of the 69 players it projected as average or better on both ends (in terms of "true talent", using O-/D-DPM >0). There's all kinds of issues with this, let's ignore them for a sec. Anyway, the Hawks had 2 of them - Capela (average o, good d) and Bogdan (good o, average d). Muscala also qualifies (slightly above average at both). (If you expanding to total DPM > 0 (169 NBA players, or 5.6 per team), you then add Young, Okongwu, Collins, and a free agent, Delon Wright - who I likely try to keep.... so 7 guys, an averagish number. Average number, average team. Bleh.

If I can keep Delon Wright as the backup point (he’s more a game manager than a playmaker, but I can setup lineups with enough passing and scoring elsewhere where that’s not an issue), I’ll have almost all of my 9-10 rotation guys be players who are probably in the top half of the league in “true talent” (Hunter is the exception) by your various DPM style metrics. That’s not nothing, as a fan of a team that started Solomon Hill in three playoff games the previous year. But it also doesn’t make you a contender.

Yet more thoughts:

This team is misusing John Collins and Collins knows it; he wants to leave, the real Hawks want to oblige. While I’m not sure that I can maximize his value with Capela/Okongwu clogging the middle (Okongwu’s development of a jumper was slowed by injuries), I liked the idea of a three-way with Houston and Dallas when Collins would team with Luka (oh, Luka, what could have been!) and Wood would be part of Atlanta’s return. That deal would be part of a move to up team pace (Wood can run, folks) and save a little money (we’re dancing with the apron thanks to Young’s deal zooming up to over 36m per this season).

I’m not sure what to do at the five and some of that is that Okongwu looks really promising, like, 70% of the time. Advance stats like him too! (Of course, they like lots of centers.) So maybe he’s ready to start next year and you just let Capela go at that point? Otoh, he might not be good enough to stick with at all versus a cheaper platoon (like, tell me Hartenstein wouldn’t look great in Atlanta?). Also, Capela is on the short list for best rebounder in the league. I’d say “who cares” but Atlanta might – it opens up some other things for them (like better transition stuff).

To that end – pace. I didn’t like the Nate hire and still don’t (though I loved him as a player). He plays slow and I don’t think that’s what this team needs (nor do most good, non-old teams). I also don’t like the defenses that he builds though I don’t have a magic answer as to what to do here.

Huerter is kind of a poor man’s Bogdanovic – both split time guarding twos and threes (Huerter is taller, Bogdan is longer) and are so-so at it. They also are the most prolific three point guys on the club (along with Trae) and you want one on the court at all times, if possible, to add to spacing. I’ll be honest, I didn’t realize until early last season how good Bogdanovic (who’s almost 30) has gotten offensively – if I were a contender, I’d sniff at picking him up.

Oh shoot – picks. Dieng is your classic “maybe this big wing will turn into something?” dumb stab, taken because all the dudes I was into were already off the board. I’ve heard him comped to Diaw and Tatum – would he get these if he weren’t French? - if he pans out, he can possibly do a lot of things well (long, good passer, can rebound, has a midrange/floater game, promising from distance) and if he doesn't ... it wouldn't be surprising (as someone put it, struggling in the Aussie league is a bad sign, though he improved over the year). Braun is, in some ways, his opposite, a polished two/three who might be able to contribute in year one (hard working defender, decent shooter with a bit of untapped potential here, solid other skills). The other two picks are likely to be a development guy (think two way) and a stash (spoiler).

This leaves money. Atlanta’s situation isn’t great – all my futzing with moving Gallo was (beyond noticing that both OKC and Atlanta had very short time windows to make a deal like that and that OKC was unique in being able to and Atlanta near unique in having a player like that where you could move them at the 2021-22 salary versus the 2022-23 guaranteed value, Bledsoe is another) because Atlanta’s around the apron level. 2022-23 salaries (in millions):
Capela 18.21, Collins 23.50, Hunter 9.84, Bogdan 18.00, Young 36.60
Okongwu 6.40, MLE 6.34, Williams 2.00, Huerter 14.51, [Wright 5.50]
Muscala 3.50, minimum 1.80, Dieng 3.49, Braun 0.95, minimum 1.80
That equals 152.44m, where the tax is 147m and the apron 153.6m.
I think the team is willing to go into the tax, but I either want to get better or duck under it to avoid future repeater penalties.

Atlanta really hamstrung themselves with that Capela deal. And, they need another true max guy. Too much of their salary is tied up in average to good players on those middle contracts. It's nice to have a couple of those, but they're usually nicer when they fill out your roster or take you above the cap for your own rookie-scale guys, not when you have 4 solid players making the equivalent of 2 max guys. And I think there's too much overlap between Collins, Huerter, and Bogdanovic.

I mean, it’d be difficult for me not to, give the operating principles I’m starting from:
- Ownership “wants” the team to improve, not settle for the play-in
- This is not the basis of a championship contender
- I can’t trade Trae.

Are we so sure that Trae isn't the basis of a championship contender? Trae the way he currently plays is not. One dimensional PnR with ball watchers on the corners isn't going to win anything with Trae being such a liability on defense.

The blueprint for Atlanta has been the Warriors for basically forever, though. Atlanta is closer than any other team to being able to match that.

I think that the Hawks are missing the Draymond piece, so that's what I would be looking for. Obviously, that's hard to find.

I think that the Hawks are missing the Draymond piece, so that's what I would be looking for. Obviously, that's hard to find.

I agree that Ws-lite is the model the Hawks should be aiming for, and also that Dray is a tricky guy to replicate, but I think the other piece is that Curry has always been a sneaky good defender given the physical tools he has. Trae, at least to date, can be charitably described as not a good defender. Whether he is willing to commit to defense and how good he can be if he does are as important as finding some manner of pseudo-Draymond, I think.

Also thanks to everyone for the great writeups of your draft strategies and actions. I avoid taking part because I know nothing about college ball and prefer therefore to remain ignorant about prospects until the Cs choose one for me to get irrationally optimistic about, but it's fun to see how everyone variously approaches it and thinks it went.

I'm not sure! This version of Trae isn't (he needs to get stronger, also something something shot selection), but I do think that a less heliocentric offense (which was part of my thought behind pursuing Brogdon - and, by the way, apologies to MM for lowballing him, I truly was misreading both his value in general and on the market) and surrounding Young with plus defenders versus average or worse is part of the story.

I guess why the idea behind "do what the Warriors did" doesn't work for me is: 1) Trae is never going to be Curry, for a lot of reasons (FTO hits a big one) 2) as you note, Draymonds are hard to come by! That's part of the thinking with Okongwu - his admirers comped him to Bam and I see flashes of why, but that's so far away and unlikely to happen. Bam-lite might work.
In any case, they'll need to find their own route to winning - I, and this goes beyond Atlanta, don't think teams should emulate what GS did (unless you've got a Curry and a Draymond and a... - then go for it) and instead see what you have that's special, what arbitrage you can find and leverage for a long run advantage, and then hope you get lucky. One reason the Warriors think that they're tough in the playoffs is that they're a little different than any other teams (this is also, imo, part of what Memphis a tough out when they faced GS) and that that's hard to plan for or build against.
Be special, be different.

I agree that Ws-lite is the model the Hawks should be aiming for, and also that Dray is a tricky guy to replicate, but I think the other piece is that Curry has always been a sneaky good defender given the physical tools he has. Trae, at least to date, can be charitably described as not a good defender. Whether he is willing to commit to defense and how good he can be if he does are as important as finding some manner of pseudo-Draymond, I think.

I think as the front office, you have to assume that Trae decides he wants to grow up and care about defense, because if you don't, you're ######. I assume that the FO knows more than I do about Trae's competitiveness and his will to win. If Trae decides he loves getting to the second round every year, then that's where you'll be.

It's the same way with Luka and showing up in shape. You're not going to make him show up in shape. He has to want to get there.

I think you have to focus as a FO on what you can control and trust the players to do their part.

I guess why the idea behind "do what the Warriors did" doesn't work for me is: 1) Trae is never going to be Curry, for a lot of reasons 2) as you note, Draymonds are hard to come by! That's part of the thinking with Okongwu - his admirers comped him to Bam and I see flashes of why, but that's so far away and unlikely to happen. Bam-lite might work.

On "finding Draymond" and "bam-lite"--is there a world where Atlanta can get Bam? Bam is the closest thing to Draymond there is. Could you pry him loose somehow?

is there a world where Atlanta can get Bam?

aberg? What would you like for Bam? How about Collins and Bogdanovic? Hello? ... Hello?

In terms of "easily acquirable" guys, I keep going back to Hartenstein. He's mobile, a top 3 passing big. Outstanding defensive numbers in smallish samples for multiple teams in different roles. Could extend the jumper, maybe. Foul prone, though, and unexciting on offense. That's a far cry from Bam though.

I think that the Hawks are missing the Draymond piece, so that's what I would be looking for. Obviously, that's hard to find.

Probably why the Hawks went hard after Simmons, figuring he could be their Draymond. That ship has probably long sailed down the Chattahoochee.

The Hawks were 26-13 after the break and I don't feel like they're in that bad a spot despite crapping the bed against Miami (bad matchup, front court hurt). Yeah, Trae's defense is an issue, but I think if you get him some relief on the offensive end he can push harder on defense. The hard part is getting a mid-market team to that next step and off the #17 pick treadmill. The Bucks did it with a bold trade for Holiday. Will the Hawks do he same and take a chance with Dejounte Murray? Ayton? Gobert?

If the Hawks do make a move, I'd almost want it to be risky. Trading Collins for Barnes makes no sense to me because there's no upside. I'd rather run it back.

On cue, I got out of a work call and a discussion about Collins' trade value / what ATL should do started playing (Game Theory pod) - host is advocating for getting Gobert and that you have to play a drop d with Young getting crushed on switches.
--
Bad spot: oh, it's only bad, I think, in that the ceiling is too low?

Probably why the Hawks went hard after Simmons, figuring he could be their Draymond. That ship has probably long sailed down the Chattahoochee.

Oh, I am not so sure about that. I think Simmons might be incredibly available.

Edit: you could actually argue that Simmons for Collins would improve both teams.

Oh, I am not so sure about that. I think Simmons might be incredibly available.

You may be right. The Nets are such a mess I have no idea how they're going to move forward.

Trading for Simmons would certainly fit in the 'risky moves' category.

According to BR.com, Steph has 20 lbs on Trae, although I've seen plenty of websites that say Trae weighs 180. And at the combine, Trae weighed 178 lbs at 6" without shoes, compared to Steph's 181 lbs at 6'2" without shoes. But Steph looks bigger to me, especially in the shoulders. If Trae is only 165 lbs, as BR.com says, that's a big difference on defense.

These write-ups are interesting. It would be cool if there were an OOTP-NBA type game where the BTF teams could play the schedule with these rosters and their draft-day GMs. Ha.

You may be right. The Nets are such a mess I have no idea how they're going to move forward.

I suspect no one is available in Brooklyn until they resolve the Kyrie mess, but because of it I imagine lots of avenues might open depending.

3123/rr - to that end... what is the best NBA basketball simulation game? I've played basketball-gm.com (a far cry from realistic, but fun and also free) and draft day pro basketball (where ultimately I landed on "this isn't all that good" - though I liked their college game).

(I'm not a big video game guy but once or twice a year, I go to an OOTP or something similar, beat it to death for a few days/weeks, then leave video games alone again.)

According to BR.com, Steph has 20 lbs on Trae, although I've seen plenty of websites that say Trae weighs 180. And at the combine, Trae weighed 178 lbs at 6" without shoes, compared to Steph's 181 lbs at 6'2" without shoes. But Steph looks bigger to me, especially in the shoulders. If Trae is only 165 lbs, as BR.com says, that's a big difference on defense.

Steph obviously is a slight guy, but IIRC after the ankle issues he really dedicated himself to strength training and its a big part of why he became capital S Steph

3123/rr - to that end... what is the best NBA basketball simulation game?

No idea--I was not aware of the two you mentioned.

(admittedly, i was using your comment as a jumping off point for that question for the chat. incidentally, that basketball-gm game is what got my 15 year old interested in sports - he'd never care about any of them before but is now a die hard hawks fan (i was like noooo save yourself, pick a different team))

TFTIO is on the clock.

Some of the discussion above got me thinking: who are all the Draymond-types? My attempt to answer the question:

All-NBA tier:
Bam Adebayo
Jayson Tatum (maybe contentious, meant as a compliment, not an insult)

All-Star tier:
Ben Simmons


Starter tier:
Thad Young
Isaiah Hartenstein
Nic Batum

Bench guys:
Justise Winslow (?)

Do we need to identify what a Draymond type is? Highly switchable big, plus defense or better, who can offer playmaking and some perimeter shooting?
(I guess maybe not perimeter shooting. Doesn't clog the middle on o.)

Horford when he feels spry. Siakam, arguably? (I wanted to kick the tires on a deal there.) Kyle Anderson. Bjelica isn't quite good enough defensively for this, but he's in the ballpark as bench guys go.

Carter in Orlando is sort of here. JJJ is short on passing but has the perimeter game to make up for it? JTA and Banton are wingy poor man's versions? (I'm really stretching things now.) You could maybe throw Kenrich in with those two, but he's too small.

Horford is a good call, although he's aging out of the role.

I thought about Siakam, but he's too poor a defender to play small ball 5.

Kyle Anderson and Bjelica are good calls as bench guys.

Lakers allegedly acquire #35 overall from Orlando for cash and a future second, which seems silly of Orlando.

We didn't touch on this yesterday, but Dunc'd on was all over the idea and more leaks today, seems likely that DeAndre Ayton has a max offer waiting in Detroit.

Fair on Siakam. I wasn't sure whether all of these need to be able to play the five or not, which is key for being Dray-like (and explains the last three dudes in 3132).
--
Agree that that's silly on Orlando's part. Kings also dealt a second (49) to CLE for the rights to a Euro stretch backup four (Vezenkov). I haven't really watched Euroleague ball in a bit, so I don't remember him well but his profile looks exactly like you'd think - can knock down a shot, bit short athletically, decent passer. Saw him called a poor man's Ilyasova, will be 27 this season.

Woj: LAL acquire 2022 #35 from ORL for future 2rdr and cash.

Edit: Coke to tship.

Saw him called a poor man's Ilyasova, will be 27 this season.

Who is the worst player you can call another guy a "poor man's version" of? Ilyasova has to be close to the line.

Kyle Neubeck @KyleNeubeck
You get this some every year, but feels like there’s a high volume of guys in this draft class described as “high level scorers” and “tough shotmakers” who shot a collective average of like 38 percent from the field last season

Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
I cannot guarantee that anything I publish today will make any sense whatsoever. Just throwing that out there.

John Gonzalez @JohnGonzalez
My favorite NBA draft day memory was when the Sixers under Hinkie decided not to have media avail the night of. Naturally that pissed off @howardeskin who hid in a bush outside PCOM & popped out of it for his FOX29 hit just as a very confused Josh Harris was walking in

Who is the worst player you can call another guy a "poor man's version" of? Ilyasova has to be close to the line.

raul neto.

Tatum is too much of a scorer/shooter type to be in this grouping, I think. In some ways, Draymond types have to be defensive first, right?

Tatum is too much of a scorer/shooter type to be in this grouping, I think. In some ways, Draymond types have to be defensive first, right?

My argument is that Tatum in some ways just Draymond+.

A better scorer, capable of playing the 5 for stretches, functional but limited as a creator for others, extremely switchable (but probably not as good).

Might be a reach.

Isn't Giannis more Draymond+ than Tatum?

Skill-wise that makes sense, but to my mind to be a Draymond type a player needs to be offensively valuable without being a capable primary scorer/initiator for a team. There's too much value in that to be the same type of player; Tatum's ability to be the focal point of the Cs offense puts him in a different category, I think.

giannis is holmgren-
(wink)

---

i gotta know, who's a poor mans neto? (neto is on my call list for a backup pg for the hawks if delon isn't reupped. rough backup pg market out there...

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn ·1h
ESPN Sources: If Kyrie Irving can’t reach an agreement to stay with Brooklyn, he has a list of teams he’d like them to consider on sign-and-trades, including Lakers, Clippers, Knicks, Heat, Mavs and 76ers. None of those teams have cap space to sign him without Nets’ help.

Hmmm...

Shams Charania @ShamsCharania ·1h
Sources: Kevin Durant is monitoring the Brooklyn Nets’ situation and considering options with his future.

This now opens the path for Kyrie Irving to proceed on finding a new home via opt-in and trade.

Leaving aside the Kyrie disaster for a moment, where would Durant want to go and who realistically can and should go after him?

My argument is that Tatum in some ways just Draymond+.

A better scorer, capable of playing the 5 for stretches, functional but limited as a creator for others, extremely switchable (but probably not as good).

Might be a reach.

I like the idea that Giannis is Draymond+. Comparing Tatum and Draymond just breaks my brain because it's hard to find 2 good players that are almost more different in the reasons they're good.

Leaving aside the Kyrie disaster for a moment, where would Durant want to go and who realistically can and should go after him?

Reunion with the Thunder? Presti could send 8 billion picks to Brooklyn.

The big question is what does Kevin Durant actually want. He was seeking a way out of Golden State while they were defending champs, so is it a championship window? Is it a particular city? Is it the chance to play with particular friends? Would he want to go where Kyrie goes, or is there someone else he'd be happy to join? Really hard to determine a landing spot without knowing his priorities.

i gotta know, who's a poor mans neto? (neto is on my call list for a backup pg for the hawks if delon isn't reupped. rough backup pg market out there...

a poor man's raul neto is an undersized, vaguely caucasian PG who is better off the ball than they are at actually being a PG, who doesn't have a single skill or attribute that rates average (let alone above).


every year, there are about half a dozen undrafted college PGs who can reasonably be described as "poor man's raul netos". as one example, ryan arcidiacono could have been described as a "poor man's raul neto".

If Kyrie does bolt this absolutely cements him as the greatest team destroyer in NBA history, right? He's cut the legs out from under the v2 LeBron Cavs, the Hopscotch/Horford/young Js Celtics, and now the KD/(Harden/Simmons)/Kyrie Nets. I can't really come up with anyone close off the top of my head.

Write up: Los Angeles Lakers

Okay, so, the team has seen better days. The Lakers, not having any picks in this year's draft, could choose to sit on their hands, let Lebron's and Westbrook's contracts run out, and try and rebuild around Anthony Davis.

That's dumb, and won't happen in either world. The BTF Lakers managed to move Westbrook for Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier. If -- and that's a big IF -- Lebron, AD, and Hayward can stay reasonably healthy, they are instantly a contender in the Western Conference. THEY'RE JUST GOOD PLAYERS. Hayward, when he has two working feet, can still shoot and can still pass. Rozier is a legit NBA starter who can bring up the ball and shoot from distance. They're perfect compliments to a still-great Lebron and a still-great Anthony Davis... if they're healthy.

This is how it has to be for the Lakers right now. Because it's Lebron, and because it's AD, I can't care what happens five years down the line. Yeah, that unprotected pick is going to sting when it comes up. I don't care. I'll be paying these guys forever. I don't care. So I run those four out, I resign Dwight and Monk, see if THT can actually play basketball, see if LaMarcus Aldridge wants to come to LA, see if Robin Lopez wants to come to LA, see if Rodney Hood wants to switch locker rooms.

For one last run, this could be a very good team, a contending team. If they're healthy.

The big question is what does Kevin Durant actually want. He was seeking a way out of Golden State while they were defending champs, so is it a championship window? Is it a particular city? Is it the chance to play with particular friends? Would he want to go where Kyrie goes, or is there someone else he'd be happy to join? Really hard to determine a landing spot without knowing his priorities.

I think KD wants to play great basketball, be recognized as one of the (if not the single) best players in the league, and be the main guy. So winning is important, but being *the guy* and playing his brand of basketball is more important.

So LAC/Dallas/GSW/LAL would all be out for him under my reading.

Isn't Giannis more Draymond+ than Tatum?

Skill-wise that makes sense, but to my mind to be a Draymond type a player needs to be offensively valuable without being a capable primary scorer/initiator for a team. There's too much value in that to be the same type of player; Tatum's ability to be the focal point of the Cs offense puts him in a different category, I think.

Yeah, Draymond is probably a bad comp for Tatum. I keep trying to find unusual comps for Tatum because people keep casting him as LeBron in a way that suits him poorly, I think.

I found a home for Durant.

I found a home for Durant.

Los Angeles approves this trade.

I’m sure the Wovles would be happy to give KD a shot.

Also sorry to hold up the draft. I have no good ideas — does anyone want 50?

Take Baldwin!

Fwiw, I think Rollins is the consensus top guy available, if you want a two. He’s 19 years old, was a 19/6/3.6 in the MAC, long (6-10 wingspan), good midrange, bad from three, gets steals, good ball handler.

I almost drafted Rollins at 47 or whatever. I agree he is probably the best guy available.

One thing I almost always look for are guys with good FT% and bad 3p% because I think they are systematically undervalued.

If not taken at 50, I’m taking Patrick Baldwin from Milwaukee (the school, not the team. Go Panthers!) at 51. If Baldwin goes, my plan B is F Jabari Walker, Colorado.
The road not taken was Isaiah Mobley, USC.
Baldwin is a non athlete with awful stats in a bad conference but eye popping numbers on the circuit when not coached by his dad.
Walker is a 3 and D four who is more steady defensively than a playmaker.
Mobley is like his younger brother but not nearly as good.

At 52, I’m going for a stash pick. Plan A is to work out a deal with Hyunjung Lee, Davidson. Lee is going to miss the 2022-23 season due to injury and this would be a situation where he would agree not to sign ahead of time and instead rehabs with College Park (g league, Atlanta) for the year. I feel like there’s sufficient precedent here for this to be realistic. The dream with Lee is that he can turn into Duncan Robinson - unlikely but who knows?

If people didn’t like that, I’d select Ziga Samar, a guard from Fuenlabrada. (That my phone successfully autocorrected Fuenlabrada surprises me.) He’s a 6-6 Slovenian point guard who’s a poor man’s Tomas Satoransky.

(I’d’ve taken Rollins but my first two picks were already wings.)

I also look at that tship.

Woj now reporting that Paolo is going #1.

Crazy to see Chet Holmgren's dad as tall as Chet. That's some genes for ya'.

I've got a buddy with a decent amount of money on Smith. He figures "trust woj, it's easy money"

Woj now reporting that Paolo is going #1.

Welp.

The overnight betting surge was right!

I am so, so pleased that we get to see Giddey, Poku, and Holmgren suit up for the same team.

I didn't follow this closely, but Woj has been known to carry water for his sources. He did that in the Harden trade this last year where he disputed what Brian Windhorst broke about Harden wanting out. Wonder if that was a factor here.

3162 - he’s not returning my texts :)

Why the #### is Kendrick Perkins out here?

Just to get it on paper, I think Jabari Smith is probably a better "fit" for OKC, but I like Holmgren more. I think his offensive game is fluid enough and his stocks are ridiculous enough you just take him and let him play Giannis ball on defense.

Oh I don’t agree with that at all. Smith is so fluid for his size, and can shoot too. Holmgren is so awkward.

I am so, so pleased that we get to see Giddey, Poku, and Holmgren suit up for the same team.

they traded moses brown???? why am i just now hearing about this?????


also, don't forget darius bazley. i think he runs something like 6'10, 210 and he "plays" a "passable" SF.

Keegan Murray to Sac is the perfect match of a wet fart with an adult diaper.

3131/3132 - Kyle Anderson and JTA are both guys that seem like they could be had really cheap this offseason. If Milwaukee could somehow get both by splitting their taxpayer MLE by something like 3/13 for Kyle Anderson and 2/4 (PO) for JTA I'd be really happy. I dunno how realistic that is but I think I heard on a Lowe post he doesn't think Kyle Anderson gets the full taxpayer, and they could really use him. Then resign Connaughton, let Portis walk, and either draft the most Trey Murphy guy on the board at 24 or just put Grayson Allen + the 24 to get a good player.

millions of dollars changed hands re Woj's tweets today.

not that it didn't happen 5 years ago, either - but that was mostly in the illegal, offshore black market.

now it's (to a large extent) above board, with more than half the state's allowing legal sports bets - and many of those also are cool with betting on the NBA draft.

ironically, one of those states is NOT NY, where the draft is being held. (PA and CT also don't allow it, but NJ does - if you're scoring at home, for some reason.)

Murray 4 Ivey 5 Benedict 6 makes sense to me

Tatum's comp is Kawhi or Paul George. Good enough to be your ball in hand guy but you probably won't have an elite offense off it because passing is a couple notches below where you want it, tons of his value is from his defense/rebounding/switchability.

Like Kawhi and George you figure his shooting, passing, and foul drawing will likely increase a bit over time, as his defense slightly decreases.

I don’t think Anderson is near that cheap. Unsure what JTA costs.

Pistons with Ivey, Cunningham, and (if they get) Ayton become a very intriguing team.

Ivey may be a lock for the HoF now...Kings grabbed Fredette one pick before Klay, T Robinson one before Lillard, and of course Bagley one before Luka.

I don’t think Anderson is near that cheap. Unsure what JTA costs.


Kyle Anderson feels like he should be worth more but he's a weird player and I wonder how many teams know where/how to play him or trust he can be in the playoff rotation. Memphis is obviously pretty deep but he only played 21 minutes in the regular season, 18 in the playoffs, and in a league more and more about having 4 shooters on the floor, he isn't one (and isn't a center).

I like the Sharpe pick a lot for Portland. Seems like by far best talent available. Now you just deal Lillard while you can get a ton of value. Of course they won't do that, and they will deeply regret that decision in 2 years.

Two notes:

I'm really glad I'm only a kayfabe Magic fan. I can't imagine how frustrating the last decade would have been.

I'm going to be in Vegas for summer league. What's the over/under on how many of Giddey/Poku/Holmgren suit up? Feels like top prospects have mostly not really participated in summer league recently, though some of that may be injuries.

Anderson gets at least the MLE I think. Probably not more.

Sharpe is the highest ceiling left for sure

I worry about the Pelicans needing shooting. Vinson should help Daniels tho.

The top-8 matches our top-8.

Those Dyson Daniels clips were among the least inspiring I can remember for a recent high pick. Surely there's better tape out there!

3181 - it continues

All the good Daniels tape is of his mother.

Austin Krell @NBAKrell
ESPN comping the #1 pick to Michael Beasley and Ben Simmons before comping the #2 pick to Giannis and #3 to KD is a helluva turn.

I almost did a spit take when they did that Beasley comp

(In fairness, I thought Beasley would be awesome)

Banchero feels to me like an average/good NBA athlete who dominated college kids with an advanced game for his age, but I felt the same thing about Tatum, so clearly I'm not to be trusted....

The NBA deciding that generic well-practiced B1G kids are the best prospects is a turn I did not expect as a longtime fan of Michigan.

Johnny Davis was a big dropper in our draft.

Dieng getting traded from NYK to OKC

Not nearly Porzingis-level booing for the Knicks' pick this year, but maybe when the trade is announced they'll yell louder.

Banchero feels to me like an average/good NBA athlete who dominated college kids with an advanced game for his age, but I felt the same thing about Tatum, so clearly I'm not to be trusted....

I thought Banchero's most advanced skills were his handle and passing, which are the hardest thing to teach and are really important to being a #1 option. He also had good stocks totals, decent FT shooting and looked pretty switchable on defense.

Every time I see Chet interviewed, I think “boy, this is one dumb motherfucker”

Holmgren to Kendrick Perkins: "I don't think I'll ever reach 290lbs."

So what is the NYK/OKC deal? Seems very vague, no details.

You know I kept wanting to like Jalen Williams - then I’d watch him and be like that’s it?

Jalen Williams looks worse by the #s than some guys who went in the second round in our mock.

3192--Yeah, Banchero has a really high floor I think; it's just the eye test--he doesn't look like he'll be really elite at anything.

James Edwards III@JLEdwardsIII
Hearing the Knicks are taking one last serious push at the Pistons for Ivey, laced with the picks from the OKC trade that happened at pick 11. Stay tuned.

Pistons getting Duren from Charlotte in a trade (Woj) or Knicks (shams)

Maybe both? Kemba Walker and Duren going to the Pistons