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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4354 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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   3201. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:25 PM (#6083572)
What did Detroit give up?
   3202. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:26 PM (#6083573)
Knicks also getting Duren somehow according to the internet. Will suit up for Detroit and the Knicks, job-share situation per my sources.
   3203. JJ1986 Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:26 PM (#6083574)
So Hornets are trading Duren to the Knicks and then the Knicks are trading Duran and the 2 picks they just got for Ivey? What are the Hornets getting?
   3204. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:27 PM (#6083575)
Shams says Knicks, Woj says Pistons. Battle of the sources!
   3205. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:27 PM (#6083576)
What are the Hornets getting?

Worse? Probably worse.
   3206. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6083577)
I guess if you can't trade for DeAaron Fox, you just draft the next DeAaron Fox?
   3207. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:31 PM (#6083578)
Marc Stein says all the Knicks machinations are about giving a pile of money to Jalen Brunson, which is a terrible idea so it's probably right.
   3208. Harlond Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:31 PM (#6083579)
So we can compare.

1. Oklahoma City (Harlond) (trade) -- Jabari Smith Jr, Auburn
2. Portland (mike f) (trade) -- Paolo Banchero, Duke
3. San Antonio (GregF)(trade) -- Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
4. Sacramento (Votto) -- Benedict Mathurin, Arizona
5. Detroit (Cross-Eyed) -- Shaedon Sharpe, kentucky
6. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) -- Jaden Ivey, Purdue
7. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) (trade) -- Dyson Daniels, G-League
8. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) (trade) -- Keegan Murray, Iowa
9. Houston (Oriole Tragic)(trade) -- Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
10. Washington (HW American) -- Tyrone 'TyTy' Washington, Jr., Kentucky
11. New York (. . . . . .) -- Jalen Duren (then traded to San Antonio), Memphis
12. Chicago (Dandy)(trade) -- Tari Eason, LSU
13. Charlotte (JJ1986) -- AJ Griffin, Duke
14. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) (trade) -- Nikola Jovic, Int'l
15. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Malaki Branham, tOSU
16. Atlanta (Der-K) -- Ousmane Dieng, Int'l
17. Houston (Oriole Tragic) -- EJ Liddell, OSU
18. Oklahoma City (Harlond)(trade) -- Jalen Williams, Santa Clara
19. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Josh Minott, Memphis
20. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Dalen Terry, Arizona
21. Denver (asinwreck) -- Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest
22. Memphis (tshipman) -- Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
23. Philadelphia (57i66135.) -- Caleb Houstan, Michigan
24. Milwaukee (Ken Griffey) -- Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
25. New York (. . . . .) (trade) -- Mark Williams, Duke
26. Charlotte (JJ1986) (trade) -- Justin Lewis, Marquette
27. Miami (aberg) -- Ochai Agbagi, Kansas
28. New Orleans (tshipman) (trade) -- Marjon Beauchamp, G-League
29. Memphis (tshipman) -- Gabriele Procida, Int'l
30. Denver (asinwreck) -- Walker Kessler, Auburn

31. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) -- Kendall Brown, Baylor
32. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) -- Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
33. Toronto (Baseball Obscura) -- Jaden Hardy, G-League
34. Oklahoma City (Harlond) -- Wendell Moore, Duke
35. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) -- Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga
36. Portland (mike f) -- Christian Koloko, Arizona
37. Sacramento (Votto) -- Peyton Watson, UCLA
38. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Khalifa Diop, Gran Canaria
39. Golden State (DCA) (trade) -- Jaylin Williams, Arkansas
40. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Ismaël Kamagate, Paris Basketball
41. Golden State (DCA)(trade) -- Scotty Pippen Jr, Vanderbilt
42. San Antonio (GregF) -- Trevor Keels, Duke
43. Atlanta (Der-K) -- Christian Braun, Kansas
44. LA Clippers (harlond) -- Matteo Spagnolo, Vanoli Cremona
45. Charlotte (JJ1986) -- Max Christie, Michigan St
46. Detroit (Cross-Eyed) -- Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
47. Memphis (tshipman) -- David Roddy, Colorado St
48. Minnesota (TFTIO) --
49. Sacramento (Votto) --
50. Minnesota (TFTIO) --
51. Atlanta (Der-K)(trade) --
52. Atlanta (Der-K)(trade) --
53. Boston (winter's night) --
54. Milwaukee (forfeited over Bogdan Bogdanovich)
55. Miami (forfeited over Kyle Lowry)
56. Washington (HW American) --
57. LA Clippers (harlond)(trade) --
58. Cleveland (DCA) --
59. Portland (mike f) --
60. San Antonio (GregF) (trade) --

TRADES
1. Hawks/Der-K trade Jalen Johnson & Skylar Mays to the Thunder/harlond for Muscala, Williams, the Hornets' 2024 2nd round pick, and the Hawks' 2025 2nd round pick.
2. Pacers/Mellow Mouse trade Myles Turner to Pelicans/tshipman for 2022 #8, Jaxson Hayes, and Jonas Valancuinas.
3. Magic/Athletic Supporter trade the 2022 #1 pick to Thunder/harlond for the 2022 #2 pick and the Wizards' 2023 1st round pick (various protections)
4. Magic/Athletic Supporter trade the 2022 #2 pick to Portland/mike f for the 2022 #7 pick, the Bucks' 2025 1st round pick (protected 1-4), and Nassir Little
5. HOU trades #3 to SA for #9, #20, #38
6. Hornets/JJ1986 trade PJ Washington to Bulls/Dandy for Blazers' 2023 1st round pick (lottery protected in 2023 & thereafter)
7. SA/GregF trades McDermott, Langford, #25 to NY/. . . . . for Randle, #11 (Duren), #42
8. Cleveland/DCA trades Sexton (sign and trade: 4/70+), #14, CLE's 2026 1st (has some protections) to Indiana/MM for Malcolm Brogdon.
9. HOU trades #26 and 2023 FRP (MIL) to CHA for #15.
10. Bulls/Dandy trade Coby White, #18, Marko Simonovic to Thunder/Harlond for #12, Sixers' 2025 1st round pick (lightly protected as per Horford trade), rights to Vasilije Micic
11. Bulls/Dandy trade Patrick Williams to Spurs/GregF for Jakob Poeltl, Bulls' 2025 1st round pick (protected/conditional from DeRozan S+T), Bulls' 2025 2nd round pick
12. NOP/tshipman trades Devonte' Graham to Cleveland/DCA for Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler, #39
13. SA/GregF trades Primo, Richardson, Collins to IND/Mellow Mouse for Hield, #60
14. New Orleans/tshipman trades #39, #41, #52 to Golden State/DCA for #28
15. Lakers/Hombre trades Westbrook, 2027 1st to CHA/JJ1986 for Hogwash, Rozier
16. GSW/DCA trades #51, #52, #57 to Atlanta/Der-K for Miami's 2024 2nd, Chaundee Brown, and "cash considerations"
17. Atlanta/Der-K trades Gallinari, OKC's 2025 2nd, and $4.73m to OKC/harlond for the rights to Devon Hardin
18. Atlanta/Der-K trades #44 and #57 to LAC/harlond for #43
   3209. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:33 PM (#6083580)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
The Pistons are sending the Hornets the 2025 first-round pick via Milwaukee in the Duren trade, sources tell ESPN. Detroit got that pick from Portland in the Jerami Grant deal yesterday
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Knicks acquired Jalen Duren -- and moved him with Kemba Walker to the Pistons, sources said.
   3210. JJ1986 Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:33 PM (#6083581)
Sounds like the trade may have nothing to do with Ivey.
   3211. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:33 PM (#6083582)
Marc Stein says all the Knicks machinations are about giving a pile of money to Jalen Brunson, which is a terrible idea so it's probably right.


It's so comforting when the Knicks do something obviously stupid. Like the swallows returning to Capistrano ...
   3212. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:40 PM (#6083585)
I don't get the trade for Charlotte? They seem to have given up a lottery pick for a future (likely) non-lottery pick?

I do like Mark Williams, though.
   3213. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:44 PM (#6083586)
Weird draft, normally the Wolves would have picked like an hour ago.
   3214. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:44 PM (#6083587)
It's so comforting when the Knicks do something obviously stupid. Like the swallows returning to Capistrano ...

Yeah just to be clear they seem to have traded a lottery pick in order to dump Kemba Walker's $8 million salary.
   3215. Mike A Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:45 PM (#6083588)
Can't really complain about AJ Griffin at #16 for the Hawks. He's pretty raw at only 18 years old - but I like his upside for a mid-rounder.
   3216. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:45 PM (#6083589)
The trade in general makes zero sense. Kemba is only getting 9 million this year. There's no way you have to give up 13 overall to get off his money.
   3217. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6083590)
Charlotte got 4 seconds from someone I think.
It’s all confusing. (I wonder who else might be involved)

Love Eason to Houston

I’m happy with Griffin - wanted him or Eason here
   3218. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6083591)
Thank goodness Atlanta shored up their defense with ... (checks notes) ... A.J. Griffin?
   3219. JJ1986 Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:47 PM (#6083592)
Feel better about my Eason-boosting after seeing him go to the Rockets.
   3220. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:50 PM (#6083593)
Dalen Terry to the Bulls.
   3221. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6083594)
I never gave my weird comp for Eason - there’s some significant differences (and hopefully Eason is a better dude) but — Ruben Patterson.
Patterson was shorter, stouter, more likely to d up a 2, worse shooter and better passer… but I still see it

Walker getting bought out again, not a shock
   3222. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6083595)
If he is talking about the 2020s, for sure. We will see about the draft:

John Hollinger
@johnhollinger
·
1m
Heard talk of some outrageous things that might happen in the 20s. Hard to know what to believe, but let's see what happens ....
   3223. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:58 PM (#6083596)
19 to Memphis for 22 and 29
   3224. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 09:59 PM (#6083597)
My pick of Jake LaRavia for Denver is denied IRL as Memphis trades up to 19 to snag him.
   3225. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:00 PM (#6083598)
19 to Memphis for 22 and 29


No, they need fewer better draft picks, not more worse ones.
   3226. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:01 PM (#6083599)
Honestly that’s solid value for minny though
   3227. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:02 PM (#6083600)
Picking up 29 to drop back 3 slots is just good business.

Particularly when the team trading up makes a reach.
   3228. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:03 PM (#6083601)
Yes, but ... now they have 5 picks in the rest of the draft. That seems a bit excessive and not all that useful. They have to be trading away some of them for something.
   3229. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:04 PM (#6083603)
I saw somewhere today Minnesota plans to trade Russell prior to free agency, so maybe the extra pick helps facilitate that?
   3230. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6083604)
Griz also get a future 2nd apparently
   3231. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:06 PM (#6083605)
Do people think SA will keep Walker in free agency? He’s young but has been pretty bad.
   3232. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6083606)
All the good Daniels tape is of his mother.

As somebody who knows nothing about any prospects, or especially their families, I am just going to assume that this comment makes sense because his mother is Stormy. If I am wrong, don't tell me.
   3233. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:12 PM (#6083607)
Three (conditional) first round picks for Dieng?

My first 2nd rounder from the mock wandering in from the crowd to go #21



Kessler to Minny fits the idea that the wolves may let towns play more at the four
   3234. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:15 PM (#6083611)
Here's what I can piece together so far:

Knicks: 3 conditional first round picks (what are the conditions?)

Pistons: Kemba + Duren

Hornets: Bucks 2025 first rounder, 4 2nd round picks

   3235. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:15 PM (#6083612)
Melton to Philly for Green and 23!?
Don’t love that for Memphis (roddy)

( I edited to add green)
   3236. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6083613)
Hornets: Bucks 2025 first rounder, 4 2nd round picks

It's apparently Denver's 2023 1st. Lost it but I saw that a minute ago.
   3237. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:16 PM (#6083614)
Walker Kessler goes 8 picks higher IRL than in our draft to back up KAT.
   3238. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:17 PM (#6083615)
It's apparently Denver's 2023 1st. Lost it but I saw that a minute ago.


I saw the same thing literally a second after I hit submit comment.
   3239. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:19 PM (#6083616)
Melton to Philly for #23!?


Danny Green apparently also involved.
   3240. JJ1986 Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:19 PM (#6083617)
Sixers have to send back some salary. Korkmaz? Niang?

Edit: Nevermind.
   3241. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:20 PM (#6083619)
Melton is solid, don't care for it.
   3242. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:22 PM (#6083621)
Isn’t Memphis taking on more money with green than Kemba makes?
Some of these deals are weird.
—-
As much as I love Melton, get ready for some wild decision making with the ball, Philly
   3243. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:22 PM (#6083622)
Is anything up with Green? Asking for a friend. ;)
   3244. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:24 PM (#6083623)
So hold on, the Pistons traded a Denver 2023 1st and a Milwaukee 2025 1st for a lottery pick? Is that right? Because that seems too good to be true.
   3245. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:27 PM (#6083624)
I think it is? (Too good to be true)
We need deets

These espn graphics are international election result level goofy
   3246. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:31 PM (#6083626)
Ok details coming in:
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania
Sources: The draft picks that New York acquired from OKC in the No. 11 Ousmane Dieng trade:

- 2023 protected 1st rounder via Detroit
- 2023 protected 1st rounder via Washington
- 2023 protected 1st rounder via Denver


So it seems like that Denver 1st went to Charlotte. Not sure about the others.
   3247. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:32 PM (#6083627)
As much as I love Melton, get ready for some wild decision making with the ball, Philly

given james harden's ongoing existence, it seems unlikely that melton will have the ball in his hands enough for his decision making (or lack thereof) to make a substantial impact.

fwiw:
Derek Bodner @DerekBodnerNBA
Adding in Melton's contract ($8.25m this year, $8m next year) in place of Green's non-gtd deal makes using the nontaxpayer MLE virtually impossible. Which is a fine tradeoff, but worth pointing out. It also means Danny Green gets his $, which is nice to see after the injury.
   3248. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:33 PM (#6083629)
Memphis drafted Roddy #23 overall???????
   3249. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:33 PM (#6083630)
(Duplicate info; deleted)

Scott Drew needs to calm down
   3250. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6083632)
from my mock writeup:
~~~~~
the 57ixers offseason g0al5:
~~~~~

A: more shooting, more better.

B: more rebounding, more better.

c: more springy, more better.

D: more wiggle, more better.

melton will be a substantial improvement for the sixers in 2 of those areas, and he doesn't hurt the sixers in either of the others.

this is a great ####### deal.
   3251. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6083633)
A GREAT ####### deal
   3252. jmurph Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:37 PM (#6083634)
The protections:
Jake Fischer @JakeLFischer
Knicks get from OKC, per source:

2023 first rounder from DET that's 1-18 protected through 2024, 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in 2027.

2023 first from WAS that's 1-14, 1-12 in 2024, 1-10 in '25, 1-8 in 2026.

2023 first from DEN, protected 1-14 through 2025.
   3253. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:38 PM (#6083635)
Moore (26) to minny for 29 and 2 future seconds
   3254. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:43 PM (#6083637)
That would be wild if tyty didn’t go in round 1
   3255. spivey Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:43 PM (#6083638)
Not sure what I think of the Beauchamp pick. He filled up the stat sheet and has the physical profile of what they absolutely needed, though, so I'm ok with it. Maybe he can have a bit of a Kuminga-type impact for the team this year.
   3256. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:45 PM (#6083640)
I feel like I need a flowchart to understand this NYK/DET/OKC/CHO trade.

NYK: gives up 11 overall, gets off Kemba walker
NYK: Gets two protected firsts (2023 Det, 2023 Washington)

OKC: gives up 2023 protected firsts from Detroit, washington, Denver (The picks are basically lottery protected, although DET is top 18 with some weird delays)
OKC: Gets #11 overall, Osumane Dieng

CHO: Gives up #13 overall
CHO: Gets 2023 Denver protected first, 4 seconds (unclear if this is accurate)

Detroit: Gives up some seconds (per Dunc'd on, they only have their own, they do not own future seconds)? Milwaukee 2025 protected 1st. Takes on Kemba's 9 million.
Detroit: Gets #13 overall

That seems like:
1. NYK overpaid to get off Kemba based on previous norms, should only cost a second, although you could maybe argue that the the two lottery protected picks make up for that.
2. OKC overpaid to get 11. In a pretty huge way to be honest. 3 firsts from next year for 11 overall is a pretty large overpay, although the protections might make the picks unlikely to convey.
3. Detroit gave up basically nothing? Milwaukee's 2025 protected first and some seconds (some must be coming from another team) is a pretty huge get. Compare to what OKC paid for 11.
4. Why did Charlotte not just cut the other teams out of the deal? I don't get what they liked about this deal. It feels like they took a loss as well.
   3257. JJ1986 Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:46 PM (#6083641)
The Milwaukee pick that Detroit got from Portland is also going to the Knicks.
   3258. Harlond Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:47 PM (#6083642)
I think this is the final edition.

1. Oklahoma City (Harlond) (trade) -- Jabari Smith Jr, Auburn
2. Portland (mike f) (trade) -- Paolo Banchero, Duke
3. San Antonio (GregF)(trade) -- Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga
4. Sacramento (Votto) -- Benedict Mathurin, Arizona
5. Detroit (Cross-Eyed) -- Shaedon Sharpe, kentucky
6. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) -- Jaden Ivey, Purdue
7. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) (trade) -- Dyson Daniels, G-League
8. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) (trade) -- Keegan Murray, Iowa
9. Houston (Oriole Tragic)(trade) -- Jeremy Sochan, Baylor
10. Washington (HW American) -- Tyrone 'TyTy' Washington, Jr., Kentucky
11. New York (. . . . . .) -- Jalen Duren (then traded to San Antonio), Memphis
12. Chicago (Dandy)(trade) -- Tari Eason, LSU
13. Charlotte (JJ1986) -- AJ Griffin, Duke
14. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) (trade) -- Nikola Jovic, Int'l
15. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Malaki Branham, tOSU
16. Atlanta (Der-K) -- Ousmane Dieng, Int'l
17. Houston (Oriole Tragic) -- EJ Liddell, OSU
18. Oklahoma City (Harlond)(trade) -- Jalen Williams, Santa Clara
19. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Josh Minott, Memphis
20. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Dalen Terry, Arizona
21. Denver (asinwreck) -- Jake LaRavia, Wake Forest
22. Memphis (tshipman) -- Blake Wesley, Notre Dame
23. Philadelphia (57i66135.) -- Caleb Houstan, Michigan
24. Milwaukee (Ken Griffey) -- Johnny Davis, Wisconsin
25. New York (. . . . .) (trade) -- Mark Williams, Duke
26. Charlotte (JJ1986) (trade) -- Justin Lewis, Marquette
27. Miami (aberg) -- Ochai Agbagi, Kansas
28. New Orleans (tshipman) (trade) -- Marjon Beauchamp, G-League
29. Memphis (tshipman) -- Gabriele Procida, Int'l
30. Denver (asinwreck) -- Walker Kessler, Auburn

31. Indiana (Mellow Mouse) -- Kendall Brown, Baylor
32. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) -- Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee
33. Toronto (Baseball Obscura) -- Jaden Hardy, G-League
34. Oklahoma City (Harlond) -- Wendell Moore, Duke
35. Orlando (Athletic Supporter) -- Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga
36. Portland (mike f) -- Christian Koloko, Arizona
37. Sacramento (Votto) -- Peyton Watson, UCLA
38. Houston (Oriole Tragic) (trade) -- Khalifa Diop, Gran Canaria
39. Golden State (DCA) (trade) -- Jaylin Williams, Arkansas
40. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Ismaël Kamagate, Paris Basketball
41. Golden State (DCA)(trade) -- Scotty Pippen Jr, Vanderbilt
42. San Antonio (GregF) -- Trevor Keels, Duke
43. Atlanta (Der-K) -- Christian Braun, Kansas
44. LA Clippers (harlond) -- Matteo Spagnolo, Vanoli Cremona
45. Charlotte (JJ1986) -- Max Christie, Michigan St
46. Detroit (Cross-Eyed) -- Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
47. Memphis (tshipman) -- David Roddy, Colorado St
48. Minnesota (TFTIO) -- Dom Barlow, Overtime Elite
49. Sacramento (Votto) -- John Butler, Florida State
50. Minnesota (TFTIO) --
51. Atlanta (Der-K)(trade) --
52. Atlanta (Der-K)(trade) --
53. Boston (winter's night) --
54. Milwaukee (forfeited over Bogdan Bogdanovich)
55. Miami (forfeited over Kyle Lowry)
56. Washington (HW American) --
57. LA Clippers (harlond)(trade) --
58. Cleveland (DCA) --
59. Portland (mike f) --
60. San Antonio (GregF) (trade) --

TRADES
1. Hawks/Der-K trade Jalen Johnson & Skylar Mays to the Thunder/harlond for Muscala, Williams, the Hornets' 2024 2nd round pick, and the Hawks' 2025 2nd round pick.
2. Pacers/Mellow Mouse trade Myles Turner to Pelicans/tshipman for 2022 #8, Jaxson Hayes, and Jonas Valancuinas.
3. Magic/Athletic Supporter trade the 2022 #1 pick to Thunder/harlond for the 2022 #2 pick and the Wizards' 2023 1st round pick (various protections)
4. Magic/Athletic Supporter trade the 2022 #2 pick to Portland/mike f for the 2022 #7 pick, the Bucks' 2025 1st round pick (protected 1-4), and Nassir Little
5. HOU trades #3 to SA for #9, #20, #38
6. Hornets/JJ1986 trade PJ Washington to Bulls/Dandy for Blazers' 2023 1st round pick (lottery protected in 2023 & thereafter)
7. SA/GregF trades McDermott, Langford, #25 to NY/. . . . . for Randle, #11 (Duren), #42
8. Cleveland/DCA trades Sexton (sign and trade: 4/70+), #14, CLE's 2026 1st (has some protections) to Indiana/MM for Malcolm Brogdon.
9. HOU trades #26 and 2023 FRP (MIL) to CHA for #15.
10. Bulls/Dandy trade Coby White, #18, Marko Simonovic to Thunder/Harlond for #12, Sixers' 2025 1st round pick (lightly protected as per Horford trade), rights to Vasilije Micic
11. Bulls/Dandy trade Patrick Williams to Spurs/GregF for Jakob Poeltl, Bulls' 2025 1st round pick (protected/conditional from DeRozan S+T), Bulls' 2025 2nd round pick
12. NOP/tshipman trades Devonte' Graham to Cleveland/DCA for Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler, #39
13. SA/GregF trades Primo, Richardson, Collins to IND/Mellow Mouse for Hield, #60
14. New Orleans/tshipman trades #39, #41, #52 to Golden State/DCA for #28
15. Lakers/Hombre trades Westbrook, 2027 1st to CHA/JJ1986 for Hogwash, Rozier
16. GSW/DCA trades #51, #52, #57 to Atlanta/Der-K for Miami's 2024 2nd, Chaundee Brown, and "cash considerations"
17. Atlanta/Der-K trades Gallinari, OKC's 2025 2nd, and $4.73m to OKC/harlond for the rights to Devon Hardin
18. Atlanta/Der-K trades #44 and #57 to LAC/harlond for #43
   3259. asinwreck Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:47 PM (#6083643)
Patrick Baldwin Jr. to the Warriors.
   3260. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:48 PM (#6083644)
Welly welly welly look who went 28
   3261. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:50 PM (#6083646)
Not sure what I think of the Beauchamp pick. He filled up the stat sheet and has the physical profile of what they absolutely needed, though, so I'm ok with it. Maybe he can have a bit of a Kuminga-type impact for the team this year.


I really liked MarJon. It's hard to get a great sense of the G League guys and how they compare to the college guys, but I thought he was a steal in our draft in the 20s.
   3262. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 10:56 PM (#6083648)
So mr fell out of the first is Liddell, huh? Or chandler.
   3263. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2022 at 11:02 PM (#6083650)
okay, with more research, here is what I came up with, but the Milwaukee 2025 pick to NYK isn't confirmed as far as I can tell.



NYK OUT: 11th pick (Ousmane Dieng), (I think) two seconds and Kemba Walker
NYK IN: 2023 DET 1st (Protected), 2023 WAS 1st (Protected) and 2025 MIL 1st (Protected)

OKC OUT: 2023 DET 1st (Protected), 2023 WAS 1st (Protected) and 2023 DEN 1st (Protected)
OKC IN: 11th pick (Ousmane Dieng)

​CHO OUT: 13th pick (Jalen Duren)
CHO IN: 2023 DEN 1st protected (Protected), 4 Future 2nds

DET OUT: 2025 Milwaukee 1st (protected), (I think) two seconds
DET IN: 13th pick (Jalen Duren), Kemba Walker


This deal is insane for Detroit.
   3264. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 23, 2022 at 11:11 PM (#6083653)
This seems like an astonishingly orderly draft. Other than Banchero going at 1, which isn't even crazy as most saw him in the same tier... no huge reaches, no massive drops (I guess TyTy is the closest but it's not that big a fall).

The trade is complicated but doesn't really seem that important.
   3265. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 23, 2022 at 11:22 PM (#6083655)
obviously, the sixers' starting lineup, given their current roster, should be this:

G: tyrese maxey
G: james harden
G: deanthony melton
G: matisse thybulle
G: joel embiid


i don't *think* i'm forgetting about anyone relevant.
   3266. Harlond Posted: June 23, 2022 at 11:29 PM (#6083656)
Going back to the Draymond-lite discussion, I think Herb Jones might be the best answer. Second round pick, played 4 years in college, defensive savant, high IQ player, contributes on the offensive end without being a shooter, plays hard all the time. Draymond is a better passer, but I think Jones is going to be a better shooter. Jones is 6'6" without shoes with a 7' wingspan; Draymond is 6'6" without shoes with a 7'1" wingspan. Draymond has 30 lbs on Jones, which makes it easier for Draymond to play the 5, but I'm not going to underestimate Herb Jones.

Bringing this back to Atlanta, Herb Jones in their starting lineup would not hurt at all.
   3267. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 23, 2022 at 11:50 PM (#6083660)
Jones would help us.
Atlanta won’t be using their second this year, selling it to GS. (Rollins)

Guess we get 51 + 2m
   3268. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:01 AM (#6083661)
Kendall brown to Indy at 48
I liked what I saw from him but his +/- was AWFUL
   3269. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:10 AM (#6083662)
Holmgren is 7-0 and weighs ... 195? Lord, get him to the weight room and feed that boy.
   3270. tshipman Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:38 AM (#6083664)
Atlanta won’t be using their second this year, selling it to GS. (Rollins)


It's so wild to me that teams value first rounders so much more highly than seconds. I mean, that's clearly wrong, I think.
   3271. GregF Posted: June 24, 2022 at 06:38 AM (#6083672)
Final writeup for San Antonio:

If there's anything the Spurs showed they can't do in 2021-22, it's to pull off a proper tank job.

The Spurs didn't retain DeMar Derozan when he hit free agency. They picked up Thaddeus Young as salary cap ballast but gave him little playing time. They were a seller at the deadline, moving Derrick White for a draft pick haul and turning over perimeter minutes to unproven players.

And they still made the play-in over two teams who went all-out for the #10 position.

That happened thanks to Dejounte Murray emerging as an All-Star; Jakob Poeltl ramping up his usage without any loss of efficiency while remaining a defensive anchor; and a cast of young depth players holding their own without anybody else emerging as a centerpiece. But the downside is that in a young core of Murray, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Josh Primo, it's hard to see anybody with a plausible development path to be a the #1 player on a contender. And that places a severe limit on the team's chances to become more than playoff cannon fodder.

My primary goal was then to substantially lift the team's ceiling, while preserving enough continuity and prime-age talent to stay in playoff contention and facilitate player development. And I applied a strong preference for players with passing ability, 3-point shooting and defensive versatility (so that if any of the big swings connect, the roster is set up to be able to handle the matchup-based demands of the playoffs).

The real-life Spurs have tried to move Murray for future draft picks in their effort to find the core of the next contending team. As our draft played out, this version didn't have to.

Chet Holmgren is a generational player

Holmgren attracted a great deal of chatter in our draft, most of it expressing doubt about his prospects. And the fact that two teams passed on him - and one traded the #3 to avoid building around him - signaled plenty of willingness to act on that skepticism.

At the same time, statistical profiles have always loved Holmgren as a prospect - and the media/scouting hype machine has revved up for him more than for the presumptive or actual #1.

One explanation is that this reflects a difference in tolerance for unusual or unprecedented prospect types. But an equally important one involves a distinction in roles.

Looking at Holmgren through the lens of a future big, it's understandable to compare his body type to that of NBA players and worry that he'll never be able to hold up.

But that issue doesn't matter as much if he's viewed as a perimeter player who can incidentally protect the rim thanks to his length. Using the Celtics as a trendy team model, both his statistical profile and skillset suggest the potential to combine Jayson Tatum's offence (high usage and efficiency thanks to plus shot creation and length which enables him to shoot over opponents) with Robert Williams' defence (elite length and timing as a help defender, with enough athleticism and technique to hold up on the perimeter).

That combination placed him at #1 on my draft board, and it represents the upside the Spurs aimed at in trading up for him. But what if it doesn't pan out?

This team has a path to contention even if Holmgren busts

Without any trades at all, the Spurs would still have had enough developing talent to be able to hope for meaningful internal improvement. And in our draft, two more high-upside youngsters joined the group.

If Holmgren has some chance to grow up to be Jayson Tatum, Patrick Williams is a far better replica of Jayson Brown than I'd have expected to be available via trade. He's shot extremely well but hasn't yet lived up to his billing on defence, and injuries kept him from showing what he could do as the Bulls joined the playoff race this past season.

Still, comparing him to this year's draft class, he'd have been a clear-cut lottery selection, with an argument to be in the tier of candidates for the top pick.

Meanwhile, Jalen Duren's arrival offers a future interior defensive anchor who can hold his own as a rim-runner on offence.

Even leaving Holmgren aside, a future Murray-Vassell-Johnson-Williams-Duren lineup could then be elite defensively (four plus defenders at their positions and switchability across the board), with a reasonable projection of average offence as the wings' shot creation improves. And the draft capital from the White deal can be turned into one more scorer if that's what's needed to fill out the team.

Outlook for 2022-23

In the meantime, the lineup as assembled will do everything possible to put Holmgren in a position to succeed.

The starting lineup is Murray/Hield/Williams/Holmgren/Randle. Murray remains the primary distributor and point-of-attack defender - in the Celtics comparison, Smart with slightly better efficiency. Randle's post game and Hield's floor-spacing will provide a mix of options to generate points. And with those three carrying most of the load offensively, Holmgren and Williams can focus on finishing plays and locking in on defence, with Williams defaulting to the primary wing assignment, and Holmgren to a free-safety role.

The bench then includes, in order of expected playing time:
- Johnson as a multipositional scorer and rebounder, with potential to be more if his ballhandling and/or D improve
- Vassell as a 3 & D wing
- A big to be picked up in free agency, with a focus on post defence and screening. This is the role where Poeltl's loss hurts, but an affordable vet (Robin Lopez? Kevon Looney? Serge Ibaka?) can handle tough C assignments for a year or two while Duren develops.
- Tre Jones as a P & R operator and distributor
- Lonnie Walker IV (likely re-signed on the QO) for instant offence
- Duren as a depth C as he acclimates to the NBA
- Keita Bates-Diop as a depth combo forward
- Trevor Keels as the 3rd PG/depth wing
- Jock Landale as the end-of-bench big

If there's any regret in our mock offseason, it's in not better testing the market for Primo. I included him in a direct offer based on the need for a starting guard like Hield, but it looks like there was a chance get added value while still filling that need.

This is far from a contending roster for 2022-23. But it should ensure that Holmgren and Williams can hone their skills in a competitive environment - and leaves room for them to take on added responsibility as they show they're ready for it. And that gives the Spurs a more plausible road back to championship contention than they've had since Kawhi forced his way out of town.
   3272. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 24, 2022 at 07:27 AM (#6083675)
From Hollinger - "While we’re here, Oklahoma City drafted Jalen Williams at 12 … and Jaylin Williams at 34. Good luck with that, Mark Daigneault."
   3273. . . . . . . Posted: June 24, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6083687)
The Knicks traded the #13 pick for the possibility of paying Jalen Brunson $25m per season, and their second rounder is a fat guard.
   3274. mike f Posted: June 24, 2022 at 10:10 AM (#6083688)
Well, Jalen Brunson is pretty good, and the 13th pick probably won't pan out. But, I just learned that the Knicks hired Jalen's dad (Rick Brunson, I know the name but I don't remember him as a player) as an assistant coach and Jalen's nickname according to BRef is Brunson Burner (that's pretty good). So I'd say there's a 99% chance he just resigns with the Mavs.
   3275. jmurph Posted: June 24, 2022 at 10:15 AM (#6083689)
It's maybe happened before, but I'm struggling to remember another time a team organized its entire offseason around clearing space for a guy of Brunson's caliber. He's fine, I don't know, I don't love him, but either way he's not a guy you structure multiple moves around getting.
   3276. jmurph Posted: June 24, 2022 at 10:16 AM (#6083690)
So this seems unlike them, but Memphis really needs to make some moves, right? They just moved up to draft 3 players, and took a 4th, and I think only moved Melton in the process. They already had too many guys!
   3277. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: June 24, 2022 at 10:27 AM (#6083691)
If Brunson heads back to Dallas, I'm sure the Wovles could be persuaded to part with D'Angelo Russell.
   3278. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 24, 2022 at 10:34 AM (#6083692)
If Brunson heads back to Dallas, I'm sure the Wovles could be persuaded to part with D'Angelo Russell.


If you make it worth our while. :)
   3279. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 24, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6083695)
I haven’t had time to do any analysis but I know that I don’t understand wtfever that Memphis did last night.
   3280. tshipman Posted: June 24, 2022 at 11:08 AM (#6083696)
It's maybe happened before, but I'm struggling to remember another time a team organized its entire offseason around clearing space for a guy of Brunson's caliber. He's fine, I don't know, I don't love him, but either way he's not a guy you structure multiple moves around getting.


The best case scenario for the Knicks is that these moves are the precursor to making more moves that allow them to make Kyrie a max offer.
   3281. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 24, 2022 at 11:29 AM (#6083698)
I’ve thought that about Kyrie / Knicks as well.
(I personally can’t separate my desire to avoid anti vax people at all costs from that move but … definitely makes more sense than moving heaven and earth for Brunson)
   3282. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:01 PM (#6083705)
It's maybe happened before, but I'm struggling to remember another time a team organized its entire offseason around clearing space for a guy of Brunson's caliber. He's fine, I don't know, I don't love him, but either way he's not a guy you structure multiple moves around getting.

Props to Kemba and his agent though. Detroit is supposedly going to buy him out, so he's a double buy out guy. It doesn't help today, but isn't next year's draft better than this one? So there's a chance they have 3 picks next year that are all more valuable than this years (even though all will be lower). Not bad work to undo a mistake you made a year ago. But yeah, if this all really is every bag in the Brunson basket, it's gonna blow up.

I really liked the Pistons getting Ivey and Duren though (they kinda got Duren for free, or you ca just consider him part of the Grant deal). I wouldn't think they would still try to max out Ayton, even if you assume Duren isn't gonna be ready to play right away; they'd just end up needing to attach assets to dump his contract in 2 or 3 years and still won't make the playoffs in the interim.

There's a couple of teams, that for better or worse, I give them complete benefit of the doubt even if I don't like the picks. So Baldwin will work out just great for the W's (though the last couple year picks are still very much TBD) and all the guys the Spurs pick will fit perfectly on their team.

---

I much prefer Dandy's Bulls offseason than the current Bulls. I see how Terry can be a fit, but he doesn't exactly fill either of the Bulls' biggest needs (shooting and rim protection).
   3283. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:11 PM (#6083706)
So, two math problems I'm trying to work through (and they're kind of bogus questions to ask in the first place)

23 + Green = Melton (Green has to be guaranteed for 10m for the deal to happen.
Walker to detroit, in a deal with #13, another first and a bunch of seconds moving.

Memphis is likely eating 10m here. The Pistons are likely eating less than that. That cap space has value to both teams.

How much would it cost to eat Green's contract, absent using #23 to do it? (Moot, the 76ers were using that pick regardless - they needed to use the Green salary slot to do it - this is the pick the Griz apparently wanted to use). Could Melton have gone for a second if the Grizz didn't have to take on Green (but could use that slot in another way)? Weird.
Walker is the flip side - what exactly, if you could narrow it down this way, did the Knicks pay to dump him?
   3284. Eudoxus Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6083708)
Delurking from a long (long long) time reading this thread to say (a) it's one of the best things on the internet; please keep it up, and (b) can you who actually understand basketball help me understand something (in particular)? Reading some of the discussion of the use of free-throw percentage as a metric for long-term shooting ability got me wondering why free-throw success rates are so low. Not just for big men -- I can understand, I think, some of the distinctive features there -- but even for the best shooters in the NBA. There are what, three players in NBA history with a career free-throw rate above 90%? And 80% career rate is enough to mark one as a pretty good free-throw shooter?

The NBA is full of players who are regularly performing what look like super-human and superhumanly difficulty feats with decent success rate. Free throw shooting looks like it should be comparatively easy. No defenders, no time pressure, not an outrageous distance from which the shot needs to be made, the same task to be performed each time. And it's not some kind of weird skill unrelated to the rest of basketball skill -- it's not as if they're being asked to juggle, or run marathons, or play chess. And there are clear in-game rewards -- an added +10% to success rate probably means about 0.5-1.0 points per game for many players. Doesn't a quick pythagorean estimate on that come out to maybe 2-3 extra wins over a season? That seems huge for mastering a basic skill which probably also contributes to other in-game achievements.

Maybe the right perspective here is just: they do the really hard things at 40% success rate; 90% is comparatively very high? But I'm not sure I buy it. To use a comparison with a world I know better: being able to solve national olympiad level math problems at a 50% success rate is an elite skill that very few people possess. But we'd never look at one of those olympians and say, "And he can also multiply two-digit numbers/factor binomials/rotate points on the complex plan with a 90% success rate!". It would be completely baffling if a mathematician at that level couldn't do the basic tasks at more or less a 100% success rate. Is shooting free throws really that much harder? And if so, why?
   3285. JJ1986 Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:33 PM (#6083709)
From the perspective of someone who did not play high-level basketball, shooting free throws, 2-at-a-time, in the middle of a physically demanding game is hard. Shooting free throws to warm up ahead of time is the better comparison to something simple.
   3286. Eudoxus Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6083710)
Yes, I was wondering about that. So maybe biathlon is a good point of comparison -- shooting targets isn't in itself a hard task for the elite, but steadying your shooting hand after cross-country skiing at maximum effort is nontrivial? Are there good statistics on typical elapsed time between stopping of game activity and taking the free throws? I gather part of what makes biathlon so hard is that you're trying to trim seconds, so you want to stop and more or less immediately shoot. But 60 seconds is usually enough for heart rate to drop close to rest levels even after anaerobic activity for a trained athlete -- that seems like maybe close to the typical elapsed time? Cumulative exhaustion could be a factor, though. Maybe another thing to look at is free-throw success percentage by quarter?
   3287. jmurph Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:46 PM (#6083711)
Yeah agree with JJ, I guess I don't think it's as easy as Eudoxus frames it. I think there are tons of factors: fatigue, pressure, bad mechanics*, lack of perfect concentration on each attempt (intermingling with the first two things). All of these things are driven by the relatively low stakes of each single free throw attempt (meaning, if his life depended on it, I bet someone like Steph could get closer to 100% than he is now).

*Tatum is among the very good free throw guys (career 84%, so not among the elite but still very good), but he has this weird motion in which he brings the ball up from his waist very close to his body before releasing it, so I'm never particularly surprised that it doesn't come out perfectly clean every single time.
   3288. tshipman Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:47 PM (#6083712)
definitely makes more sense than moving heaven and earth for Brunson


I mean, at least Jalen Brunson actually seems to like playing basketball.
   3289. Gaelan Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:48 PM (#6083713)
From the perspective of someone who did not play high-level basketball, shooting free throws, 2-at-a-time, in the middle of a physically demanding game is hard. Shooting free throws to warm up ahead of time is the better comparison to something simple.


This is a big part of the answer. Steph Curry once made 105 three point shots in a row in practice (it is even more incredible if you watch the video).

The two at a time is a big part of it. I bet you the league average on FT is higher for the second than the first.
   3290. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6083714)
Yeah. Steph Curry shot 41% on open (6+ ft of space) threes last season but has had streaks of hitting triple digit ones in a row in practice. Free throws are simpler, but the conversion rates are higher accordingly. Maybe chess boxing versus math olympiad as a comp?

Not relevant since I also did not play high-level ball but: the first time I ever shot a free throw in an organized game I airballed it, having been absolutely hammered across the face by a 260 pound dude (I didn't really know how to shoot a basketball until 8th grade, by this point I'm in high school). For my second shot, I resolved to hit the rim no matter what and threw a missile against the backboard/rim while running back on defense pretty much in one motion. I then stole their outlet pass and threw a bullet to a teammate under the basket - which hit a ref in the head as they were turning around, sending their glasses flying. My coach then removed concussed me from the game...

edit: cokes all around

3289/gaelan: ach, i forget the % difference but it is very slightly higher. this matters in g league games, where you shoot one ft regardless (it can count 1 point, 3 points, whatever)
   3291. Eudoxus Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:50 PM (#6083715)
Poking around a bit, this article claims evidence that fatigue isn't a factor in free-throw shooting mechanics or success rate at elite levels. I haven't read the details, though, and I'd still like to find quarter-by-quarter success rate breakdowns as a quick-and-dirty check of the hypothesis.

And this paper claims a small but significant increase in success rate from first shot to second shot (to third shot, when applicable).
   3292. tshipman Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:53 PM (#6083716)
How much would it cost to eat Green's contract, absent using #23 to do it? (Moot, the 76ers were using that pick regardless - they needed to use the Green salary slot to do it - this is the pick the Griz apparently wanted to use). Could Melton have gone for a second if the Grizz didn't have to take on Green (but could use that slot in another way)? Weird.


I think Melton had excess value at around a second at his cap number, so I think basically the Grizzlies charged two seconds to take the 10 million. This is my understanding of the going rate.

Walker is the flip side - what exactly, if you could narrow it down this way, did the Knicks pay to dump him?


I think the lottery pick sort of confused things. I have ended up separating it out into two transactions. The Knicks traded a lotto pick for 3 future firsts. Then they traded 4 seconds to get off Kemba's 9 million plus the difference between Denver's protected 2023 pick and Milwaukee's protected 2025 pick (however you value that).

I think that they paid basically the equivalent of 5 seconds, but that seems literally insane. I keep waiting for more reporting on exactly who sent all the seconds to Charlotte.
   3293. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:57 PM (#6083717)
...so I think basically the Grizzlies charged two seconds to take the 10 million. This is my understanding of the going rate.

Mine too.

I think that they paid basically the equivalent of 5 seconds, but that seems literally insane.

Ok, we're definitely at the same place - thanks!
   3294. tshipman Posted: June 24, 2022 at 12:57 PM (#6083718)
Yes, I was wondering about that. So maybe biathlon is a good point of comparison -- shooting targets isn't in itself a hard task for the elite, but steadying your shooting hand after cross-country skiing at maximum effort is nontrivial? Are there good statistics on typical elapsed time between stopping of game activity and taking the free throws? I gather part of what makes biathlon so hard is that you're trying to trim seconds, so you want to stop and more or less immediately shoot. But 60 seconds is usually enough for heart rate to drop close to rest levels even after anaerobic activity for a trained athlete -- that seems like maybe close to the typical elapsed time? Cumulative exhaustion could be a factor, though. Maybe another thing to look at is free-throw success percentage by quarter?


Biathalon is a good comparison, but I think one thing to keep in mind is that NBA athletes are not selected for their ability to hit FTs. So it's actually maybe a bit like Modern Pentathlon (the greatest olympic sport) in that other factors of the competition are more important, and you just try to be decent at the shooting part.
   3295. Howie Menckel Posted: June 24, 2022 at 01:25 PM (#6083720)
re free throws:

if you ever got to witness the end of a typical NBA practice, you would see the great foul shooters put in extra time at the line, the three-point shooters take endless extra 25-footers, the in-the-paint scorers work endlessly on their turnaround moves, and so forth.

everybody has their "moneymaker" that got them into - and keeps them in - the league. so that's where all their extra focus goes. I never recall having seen a poor foul shooter or poor three-point shooter working on improving that weakness, for example.

it would be interesting if a team could pay a specific extra amount to players based on their free throw shooting percentage. that would incentivize them, these guys of course are uber-competitors, and they like money.
   3296. . . . . . . Posted: June 24, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6083722)
but I think one thing to keep in mind is that NBA athletes are not selected for their ability to hit FTs.


This is I think incorrect? FT shooting is mostly a dependent variable, a function of general shooting ability with a little noise sprinkled on top (the correlation between general shooting ability and FT shooting isn’t perfect but it’s very high). And players are definitely selected for for general shooting ability, and they are selected for for general scoring ability insofar as that is different from shooting ability, of which that FT fudge factor is a component. So I think FT shooting is definitely selected for, it just seems to be capped out at around 95% success under game conditions.
   3297. Mike A Posted: June 24, 2022 at 01:46 PM (#6083723)
There's a pretty good video on Wired (featuring Steve Nash!) where they go over the science of free throws.

Nash says at one point: 'The NBA, in particular, is incredible demand. You're traveling, changing time zones...playing three games a week. You may be carrying an injury. To corral all these factors is why we don't see someone shooting high 90s.'

Incidentally, the best professional free throw shooter isn't Steph Curry. It's Elena Delle Donne of the WNBA with a career 93.7% mark. She made 114 out of 117 in 2019, which is just ridiculous.

I once saw Jon Koncak nail eight three-pointers in a row in practice. Even the worst shooters in the NBA are better than you think without, well, NBA players guarding them.
   3298. tshipman Posted: June 24, 2022 at 01:54 PM (#6083724)
This is I think incorrect? FT shooting is mostly a dependent variable, a function of general shooting ability with a little noise sprinkled on top (the correlation between general shooting ability and FT shooting isn’t perfect but it’s very high). And players are definitely selected for for general shooting ability, and they are selected for for general scoring ability insofar as that is different from shooting ability, of which that FT fudge factor is a component. So I think FT shooting is definitely selected for, it just seems to be capped out at around 95% success under game conditions.


The very best FT shooter of all time never played in the NBA though.

The best FT shooter in college last year was Foster Loyer (great name btw) who will not receive any kind of NBA play.
   3299. asinwreck Posted: June 24, 2022 at 01:58 PM (#6083725)
How much would it cost to eat Green's contract, absent using #23 to do it? (Moot, the 76ers were using that pick regardless - they needed to use the Green salary slot to do it - this is the pick the Griz apparently wanted to use). Could Melton have gone for a second if the Grizz didn't have to take on Green (but could use that slot in another way)? Weird.

My first thought about the Grizzlies taking Green on is they may be trying to use him as salary in an upcoming trade to consolidate some of their younger, cheaper talent on a max player.

Typing that just made me imagine Kevin Durant in Memphis. Which, wow, but what max players would this Grizzlies team want to trade for right now?
   3300. Eudoxus Posted: June 24, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6083727)
Thanks, everyone. A ton of very helpful thoughts here. I think all of this makes me want to separate two cases.

Case 1: It looks like there are at least some NBA players (Curry, Nash) who under practice conditions can achieve effectively 100% success rate with free throws. (Maybe this group is in fact pretty large? Or maybe it really is just a few?) But these players are still losing about 10% success rate under game conditions. So we'd like to know why. Some hypotheses: in-game fatigue, stress from in-game pressure, distractions from game situation (crowds, other players), inability to establish a rhythm. Each of these hypotheses looks more or less testable -- look at success rates (i) by minutes played in a game, (ii) by score/win probability, (iii) maybe by home/road splits, (iv) by sequence in a stretch of free throws. The limited data I've seen suggests small but noticeable effects on each of these dimensions. Maybe it just adds up, and somewhere around 90-95% is an effective maximum, as the Nash video suggests?

Case 2: Other players aren't at the effectively-perfect level in practice conditions -- maybe they're hitting 90% in practice, and then getting the same 10%-ish penalty dropping them down to 80%. So what's the barrier to them moving themselves into Case 1? Maybe the answer here is basically opportunity costs? They could be putting time into free throw improvement, but given their playing style, they're better off putting into some other aspect of their play? It would take some work to see if that was reasonable -- if I'm right that there's maybe 0.5-1.0 points/game there to be had by free throw improvement, we'd want to know if other practice is likely to do better than that. And some data on interconnectedness of skills is going to matter -- does moving yourself from a 90% to 100% free throw shooter (under practice conditions) improve your other shooting abilities significantly?
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