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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4163 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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   3401. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 28, 2022 at 07:07 AM (#6084233)
See. Now it is tomorrow.
   3402. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 08:30 AM (#6084235)
   3403. yo la tengo (the poor man's Ron Darling) Posted: June 28, 2022 at 09:00 AM (#6084236)
Der-K that is a delightful link. Fantastic band, sadly missing Scott Miller
   3404. asinwreck Posted: June 28, 2022 at 09:08 AM (#6084238)
What a nice, thoughtful man. I enjoyed my conversations with Scott and am sad he is gone.

Does "Bad Year at UCLA" work as a soundtrack to hope that Lonzo Ball's bone bruise heals fully and Zach LaVine indeed returns to the Bulls? Because that's my attempt at relating Game Theory to this thread.
   3405. JJ1986 Posted: June 28, 2022 at 10:20 AM (#6084248)
he intends to join the Clippers.
Is this kind of tampering still wholly allowed?
   3406. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 28, 2022 at 10:32 AM (#6084251)
I think players can announce whatever they want about their personal intentions, it is only teams that are limited. But I could be wildly wrong in that.
   3407. Harlond Posted: June 28, 2022 at 10:33 AM (#6084252)
Is this kind of tampering still wholly allowed?
Is it tampering if Wall had permission?
   3408. JJ1986 Posted: June 28, 2022 at 10:33 AM (#6084253)
I think players can announce whatever they want about their personal intentions, it is only teams that are limited.
Yes, but they have definitely negotiated something already.
   3409. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 10:35 AM (#6084255)
gt/lf is a top 5(?) band for me all time; loved scott miller.
---
3406/mm - that's my understanding too.
   3410. spivey Posted: June 28, 2022 at 11:01 AM (#6084262)
Am I wrong in thinking that if Kyrie Irving plays like he did 2 years ago, there will be many teams lining up to max him? Kyrie has shown money isn't a primary motivator, he gave up like $17 million to not get vaccinated which is just an absurd thing to type. But opting in probably is a pretty good long-term career move, especially if he wants to still play with Durant.
   3411. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 11:16 AM (#6084264)
if many means >1 (and kyrie's games played total is high), then yes
opting in was definitely the right move, imo - though whether or not he's going to buy in and play a bunch for the nets is a very open question
--
scotto at hoopshype wondering if the clips might get noel into the ibaka trade exception ...i think the knicks definitely do that, not sure if lac does without an enticement? hartenstein looks gooooonnnnneeeee.
   3412. . . . . . . Posted: June 28, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6084269)
gt/lf is a top 5(?) band for me all time; loved scott miller.


poor guy was always doomed to be an echo of the Beatles and Bowie; and he was self-aware enough to know it, too.
   3413. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 28, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6084270)
Are the Wizards really just going to give Beal $250M? Does last year just not count at all when coming to this agreement?
   3414. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 28, 2022 at 01:00 PM (#6084278)
Are the Wizards really just going to give Beal $250M? Does last year just not count at all when coming to this agreement?

I feel like the Wiz are (and have been for some years now) stuck in the franchise version of what just happened to Kyrie. They must know that paying Beal is not a great plan. But they don't really have another option other than blowing it up, and they don't seem to have the stomach for that.

So I guess yes they are and no, it doesn't really.
   3415. MHS Posted: June 28, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6084282)
It feels to me like the Wizards aren’t really trying to win a title, but to make the playoffs. With Beale, even if the lesser version of him, that seems pretty achievable. Without him, it seems unlikely.

Plus, as FTO said - they just don’t seem to have the stomach for much else.
   3416. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 28, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6084287)
I think the Wizard's mire of mediocrity is entirely on ownership.
   3417. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:02 PM (#6084291)
I think mediocrity over a period of more than a year or two is almost always entirely on ownership, isn't it?
   3418. spivey Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:05 PM (#6084292)
I don't think this is a new thought or one that people here don't grasp, but when you're constantly trying to make the playoffs, what you're usually doing is setting a ceiling on your team of "making the playoffs". Washington left so much value on the table by not trading Beal one of the last 2 years. Even at his best, I don't think Beal was worth 5/250. Maybe if you're a contender and not resigning him will cause you to lose that salary slot, but that's it.
   3419. tshipman Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6084293)
It feels to me like the Wizards aren’t really trying to win a title, but to make the playoffs. With Beale, even if the lesser version of him, that seems pretty achievable. Without him, it seems unlikely.


Are the Wizards "Kings East" or are the Kings "Wizards West"?
   3420. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6084294)
Are the Wizards "Kings East" or are the Kings "Wizards West"?

SMH at this anti-Knicks bias.
   3421. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:14 PM (#6084295)
The Kings wish they were as competent and successful as either the Knicks or the Wizards.
   3422. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:16 PM (#6084296)
Most of you have no idea how gratifying it is for the Timberwolves not to be part of this particular discussion.
   3423. jmurph Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:28 PM (#6084298)
The Kings wish they were as competent and successful as either the Knicks or the Wizards.

Yeah since Sacramento's last playoff appearance, the Wiz have been there 7 times (if I counted correctly). Weaker conference for the vast majority of that time, sure, but they at least got out of the first round 3 times in that time span.
   3424. tshipman Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:30 PM (#6084299)
The Kings wish they were as competent and successful as either the Knicks or the Wizards.


So there is this argument, but then the counter is that the last time the Wizards won 50 games was 1979.

So is it better to be horrifically mismanaged for the last 20 years, but to have actually been good previously, or to be just mediocrely mismanaged, but for almost 50 years?
   3425. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6084301)
20 years is a really long time for a fan.
   3426. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6084302)
Most of you have no idea how gratifying it is for the Timberwolves not to be part of this particular discussion.

Beat me to it.
   3427. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:50 PM (#6084303)
50 wins is one kind of signifier, that perhaps you're on your way to being a contender; but making the playoffs - when the majority of teams make it every year, even if you're not a good team - is another. Not many people actually remember if you've won 50 games or not in a given year, but they know whether or not you make the playoffs. Both can be quite far from winning a title, but it's hard to not even get into the party.
   3428. asinwreck Posted: June 28, 2022 at 02:59 PM (#6084304)
Just saw this tidbit at the end of the Shams story on the Nets-Irving negotiations:
Multiple sources with knowledge of his decision said Irving wants to prioritize winning a championship next season and show why he’s one of the best players in the league.
Prioritizing winning a championship would be a nice new development for this player.
   3429. asinwreck Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6084307)
The Jazz are hiring Will Hardy away from Boston to coach. The Ime Udoka coaching tree has developed a branch.
   3430. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6084309)
A coke to asinwreck!
   3431. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:18 PM (#6084310)
DARKO has Beal as the 73rd best player in the NBA. If we go back to 2020-21, Beal was 30th in BPM and 31st in RAPTOR. It was obviously much lower than that in 2021-22. $250 million! And it's not like "Well, we're a contender, we got to put our best roster out there no matter what because we're close to winning it all." It's like 4 levels below that. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Do a sign and trade, get whatever you can get, and start over.
   3432. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:20 PM (#6084312)
But making the playoffs is very important. The 9th seed calls out. :)
   3433. MHS Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6084314)
That Shams article on the athletic was a pr piece for Kyrie. Hilarious, IMHO.
   3434. jmurph Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:31 PM (#6084316)
The Jazz are hiring Will Hardy

My guess is you don't hire an extremely young first time coach to run back the same roster?
   3435. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 28, 2022 at 03:45 PM (#6084319)
That Shams article on the athletic was a pr piece for Kyrie. Hilarious, IMHO.


So far my favorite Shams tweets of the year were the one from yesterday that discussed how Kyrie was "bypassing on multiple opt-in and trade scenarios" and the one from the Boston series when Simmons was announced out and he said it was "a surprise".
   3436. PJ Martinez Posted: June 28, 2022 at 04:38 PM (#6084333)
Per Marc Stein: "There is a growing resignation in Dallas, sources say, that the Knicks are indeed Brunson's top choice and his inevitable destination."
   3437. aberg Posted: June 28, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6084336)
It seems like the path with Beal would be to sign him and try to trade him as soon as is practical and legal. He clearly still has huge admirers around the league and I think they could get back assets, even for that contract.

Going back to yesterday, I would love for the Wolves to get Murray, and that's not just my pro-UW/Seattle bias. A high-impact defender who can serve as a co-facilitator for Ant on offense is probably the perfect third piece for the Wolves. If he shot 39% from 3, he'd be the Platonic ideal, but he probably also wouldn't be gettable. If it can be done for 3 firsts with top ~7 protection, I'd jump at it.

   3438. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 28, 2022 at 05:25 PM (#6084341)
My guess is you don't hire an extremely young first time coach to run back the same roster?


Yeah, though Lowe is saying their asking price for Gobert has remained really high so doesn't seem like they're necessarily desperate? But that they didn't just go with like Stotts does at least imply to me that they're not necessarily expecting to try and maximize wins for 2023.

Will Hardy seems promising and I'm relieved that they don't seem to have just hired someone in a misguided attempt to appease Donovan (not that Bryant doesn't deserve consideration otherwise).

I am curious about the Hawks plans because it seems like the rumor is they're trying for either Gobert or Murray...but if you're gonna do one doesn't making a trade for the other make sense too to really go for it?
   3439. Moeball Posted: June 28, 2022 at 05:58 PM (#6084343)
Speaking of Beal, I remember back during the Dark Times for the Warriors (you know, a year or two ago) when there were rumors they were trying to get him. Rumors apparently go through phases. There was the "they'll ship Russell in some package to get Beal" phase followed by the "they'll ship Wiggins in some package to get Beal" phase.

Here's my question: in terms of potential trades that a team is considering, it often seems like they might think Player A is better than Player B, but what Player B can bring to the team might actually be a better fit for what the team really needs. In the Warriors case, it now looks in hindsight that it's a good thing they kept Wiggins because he seemed to fit what the team needed just about perfectly. I remember hearing a lot of people wondering why they got Wiggins and shouldn't they get Beal instead, but I guess Golden State's front office must know what they're doing after all. Is this type of thing more common than a lot of people realize? Would they really have been better with Beal? Or is it like the Rolling Stones sing, you can't always get what you want, but you just might find you get what you need?
   3440. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 28, 2022 at 06:06 PM (#6084344)
I think Beal would have made a lot of sense to a Warriors team prior to Jordan Poole's breakout. They still would've needed a wing to do what Wiggins does for them, but the kind of did have a player doing what Beal would have, just a homegrown one.
   3441. sardonic Posted: June 28, 2022 at 06:27 PM (#6084347)
I think Wiggins for Beal would not have been a crazy idea. Beal is definitely a better player, and before this season I wouldn't have necessarily expected Wiggins to make the strides on defense and rebounding that he did. Without those pieces (which were not really in evidence before this season) Beal is pretty much strictly better than Wiggins. I think the Warriors didn't do the deal because it would have taken a lot more than just Wiggins... it would have been Wiggins + Wiseman + 7th overall draft pick (Kuminga) and maybe even 14 (Moses Moody).

I do think that Warriors leadership overrates their young talent/picks because they desperately want to be the Spurs (or even Spurs+) and launch a new championship core, so there was no way they were gonna do that deal. Whether they've overrated that young core (Poole, Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody, PBJ) by a lot or a little remains to be seen.

Then they got bailed out by Wiggins morphing into something we hadn't ever seen from him. He always had the potential but even the org I think was planning for him to just leave when his contract was up, and he still wasn't really much of a positive asset on his contract going into the year.
   3442. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 28, 2022 at 07:36 PM (#6084362)
ehhhhhh........

Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
P.J. Tucker is expected to join the #Sixers. Here’s how they can absorb his salary inquirer.com/sixers/sixers-… via @phillyinquirer
Austin Krell @NBAKrell
Assume starting salary of $9m for Tucker ($27m guaranteed over 3 years) with 5% annual raises (standard for NTMLE):

2022-23: $9m
2023-24: $9.45m
2024-25: $9.9m

Total: $28,350,000

If incentives get it up to $30m, *guessing* that might look like clauses for reaching the Finals.



just a friendly reminder before i go out and chug another half gallon of anti-freeze: pj tucker is 37 years old.
   3443. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 08:34 PM (#6084372)
T Prince signed a 2/16 extension w minny
Yr 2 not guaranteed
Immediately tradeable
Just sayin
   3444. PJ Martinez Posted: June 28, 2022 at 08:54 PM (#6084373)
Morey seems to have a Doc-like fixation on guys who have played well for him in the past. (Edit: I realize Stevens went out and re-acquired Horford and Theis. It's all good when the moves pan out!)
   3445. JJ1986 Posted: June 28, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6084385)
Woj:
The Knicks are trading center Nerlens Noel and guard Alec Burks to the Pistons, sources tell ESPN. The Knicks will unload $19M more in salary, clearing the way for cap space to try and sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson.
   3446. PJ Martinez Posted: June 28, 2022 at 09:46 PM (#6084386)
coke to JJ1986
   3447. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 09:51 PM (#6084387)
Pistons also getting 6 mil and 2 seconds (Woj)
Edit: one of the seconds is top 55 protected
   3448. tshipman Posted: June 28, 2022 at 10:36 PM (#6084403)
I don't think either of those guys should have been negative salary?

Edit: also, all this for Jalen Brunson? It is really odd.
   3449. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: June 28, 2022 at 11:28 PM (#6084418)
Edit: also, all this for Jalen Brunson? It is really odd.
sure jay wright would listen, if NYK called.
   3450. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 11:40 PM (#6084419)
I have Noel as negative salary. Healthy Burks? Got no problem with that pay.
Also, I wonder to what extent this is or is not part of the Kemba/Duran deal (whether technically or not)
   3451. tshipman Posted: June 28, 2022 at 11:48 PM (#6084421)
Also, I wonder to what extent this is or is not part of the Kemba/Duran deal (whether technically or not)


I had exactly that thought!
   3452. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 28, 2022 at 11:53 PM (#6084422)
I haven’t seen anyone else say it and I’m not sure why?
   3453. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 07:39 AM (#6084427)
Troy Weaver is having a good month.
   3454. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: June 29, 2022 at 07:47 AM (#6084428)
This is so strange.
   3455. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 09:32 AM (#6084439)
The Bulls are apparently trying to reunite Nikola Vučević and Mo Bamba in Chicago.
   3456. spivey Posted: June 29, 2022 at 09:32 AM (#6084440)
Burks is coming off a serious injury. Noel and Burks aren't the worst contracts in the league by any stretch, but I don't view them as assets.

   3457. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 10:28 AM (#6084454)
Lots of speculation about Denver moving Barton and Morris during draft night. Now Ish Smith gets a 13th jersey to add to his collection.
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn Washington is finalizing a trade to acquire Denver's Will Barton and Monte Morris for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith, sources tell ESPN.
   3458. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 29, 2022 at 10:42 AM (#6084458)
Does turning Morris and Barton into KCP and Ish make the 2023 Nuggets a better bet to win the title? Or does it just save money?

Also I can't say on Burks injury but DARKO has him ranked #87 and EPM had him #104 last year. Seems fine for the Pistons to just take him on and hope he plays well after the surgery. Noel feels like a negative deal roughly worth a good second rounder and Burks feels pretty neutral.
   3459. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 10:51 AM (#6084461)
Mike Singer had noted a few weeks back that KCP was a target because of his defense, and that the Nuggets may try to add another defensive wing once free agency starts.
   3460. sardonic Posted: June 29, 2022 at 10:58 AM (#6084464)
Feels like a nice move around the margins for Denver. With Jamal Murray coming back and Bones Hyland looking frisky, I'm not sure how much Denver is losing giving up Monte Morris. KCP is a slightly better shooter and at least has a better defensive reputation.
   3461. JL72 Posted: June 29, 2022 at 11:28 AM (#6084467)
Pistons also getting 6 mil and 2 seconds (Woj)
Edit: one of the seconds is top 55 protected


What is Detroit giving up for this? I have not seen that mentioned anywhere. I assume there has to be some future 2nd round pick or something going to NY.
   3462. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6084472)
denver/dc - love this for the wiz. morris is a giant upgrade on smith and, frankly, i'm not convinced that kcp is better than barton.
the #1 impetus for denver here is to shave money, which they did - they're now under the tax - though i'm sure they also view kcp is an upgrade on barton.

dunno what detroit is sending - maybe the rights to Nikola Radicevic?
   3463. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 01:05 PM (#6084495)
Of relevance as free agency opens.
Tim Bontemps @TimBontemps
The NBA's salary cap for the 2022-23 season is projected to come in at roughly $123.6 million, sources told ESPN. That is an $11.6 million increase from last year's salary cap figure of $112 million.
   3464. PJ Martinez Posted: June 29, 2022 at 01:09 PM (#6084497)
Monte and I were in second grade together and at 8 years old we said we would play on the same NBA team together!
Kyle Kuzma
   3465. MHS Posted: June 29, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6084514)
My take on what Denver is trying to do is improve their upside. If MJP and Murray are healthy it’s easy to make the case that KCP at SG is better starting/closing 5 with Joker, Gordon, MJP and Murray.

The problem I have with that of course is I’m not a believer in KCP’s defense.

   3466. spivey Posted: June 29, 2022 at 02:57 PM (#6084528)
I think Morris and Barton are pretty good players. I like KCP well enough, but I don't see how he's better than Barton, and Morris is a great back up PG for a team that needs one.

I feel like to the extent that Denver needs to make a trade, I'd like to deal MPJ for someone in that salary slot who is more reliable health wise. You may have to take a talent downgrade there, but could also probably get someone who fits a little better (don't like the 3 best paid players for a team all being negatives to fine on defense).
   3467. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6084556)
I think advanced metrics are probably significantly undervaluing KCP on defense (no, I have no proof!) but - as I’ve seen mentioned elsewhere - Barton’s ability to fake the three defensively is useful on a team with Porter, who might not be a paragon of health.
(Also, Morris can play off or on the ball on offense, unlike Smith, but I get dealing Morris.)

A little surprised that the Spurs gave the QO to Walker, who has been surprisingly bad in terms of on court impact. I guess why not? he’s still young and has tools.

Rumor mill has Orlando looking at the internet’s favorite backup center (IH), which further suggests that Bamba is moving on. Think I’d like to see what he could do in Houston (though he’d be better with more passing around him).
   3468. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 04:37 PM (#6084568)
agree on not liking that denver doesn't have better defenders, spivey
--
brief college men's hoops note: i'm starting to think that emoni bates might not be getting very advice. didn't like the role he wanted to fill at memphis and transferring to emu is ... maybe not the best idea.
--
warriors didn't give jta the qo. i'm not sure that i'd pay him much above the minimum, but he is legitimately one of the most versatile defenders in the league ... teams can use this.
   3469. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 29, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6084572)
Wow, surprising about JTA, not least because he's an area guy. I'd love for the Cs to get him as a bench piece, but I'm sure a lot of other teams would also be interested in a guy like that at the minimum. Wonder if that's mostly a casualty of their sky-high tax penalties.
   3470. sardonic Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:12 PM (#6084574)
Wonder if that's mostly a casualty of their sky-high tax penalties.


It's also just a bit of a roster crunch. Under contract for next year they already have Curry, Klay, Wiggins, Draymond, Kuminga, Moody, Wiseman, Poole and Baldwin, so that's already 9 roster spots out of 15.

They're expected to bring Looney, GP2 and Bjelica back, so that's 12 out of 15.

Then you have their recent 2nd round pick Ryan Rollins (whose minimum is lower than the vet min, so really helps with that tax bill), so that'd be 13.

Then you still have OPJ who they'd like to have back, Damion Lee (Steph's brother in law), JTA, Iguodala (who is expected to retire, but the FO has publicly stated they'd love to have him back), so that's 4 names for 2 spots (or 3 if you cut Rollins).

That's also before considering any other ring chasing vets who might want to join, or the possibility that they leave the 15th roster spot unfilled to reduce that tax bill.

   3471. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:13 PM (#6084575)
tax - i imagine so (ring chasers too)
oh, rollins apparently hurt his foot and will miss summer league.

harden opts out, as expect. dort and tate made rfas so their teams can lock them up on longer deals. kings slightly surprisingly not giving dd the qualifying offer.
   3472. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6084577)
Beal opts out too, also as expected.
   3473. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:23 PM (#6084580)
****************************************************************************
*** 
gallo to the spurs for murrayspurs get 3 firsts and one pick swap  ***
**************************************************************************** 

   3474. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:26 PM (#6084581)
I would guess Pops either retires this summer or sticks around at least two more seasons to start the development of the players San Antonio will get for tanking this year.
   3475. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6084584)
i'm wondering about that too.

this trade will require the guarantee in gallo's deal to be significantly increased - he's a winner here.
there's understandable speculation about atlanta now being more motivated to move huerter and / or bogdanovic -- i'll note that this club now has a risk for some serious outside shooting problems (capela/okongwu lack range, young has range but not consistency, collins is solid from the perimeter but better as a roller, murray's not a great shooter) that that would exacerbate.
   3476. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:43 PM (#6084586)
25 and 27 firsts from Atlanta are unprotected (and a 26 pick swap).

Seems like a lot to me. I am a big Dejounte Murray fan but it isn't hard to see a scenario where Atlanta doesn't come together and those are high picks. It reminds me of the Jrue Holiday trade in structure and to some extent player strengths, but I think Jrue was better (debatable) and for sure Milwaukee was a lot closer to winning a title (I don't think that's just hindsight) than the Hawks are.

It's like a last missing piece trade, but in that vein feels like a real optimistic assessment of where Atlanta is.
   3477. asinwreck Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:48 PM (#6084587)
Maybe they are going to try to get some draft capital back for Collins.
   3478. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 05:52 PM (#6084588)
3476/AS - that's where i am as well. murray is also underpaid for the next two years, at least.
   3479. spivey Posted: June 29, 2022 at 06:08 PM (#6084591)
I agree with everything in 3476. It’d be a more reasonable price if you’re closer to a chip or are in a spot like Minnesota where Murray’s small contract enables you to get the other last piece before you get salary locked.
   3480. spivey Posted: June 29, 2022 at 06:11 PM (#6084595)
I think Jrue is much better than Murray. Murray is younger though and gives you 2 years of big value before the big payday. I like this for the Spurs with the picks being further out and unprotected.
   3481. DCA Posted: June 29, 2022 at 06:30 PM (#6084603)
RE: 3475 - Hawks were #2 in team 3PT% last season, on medium volume. Gallo is a better 3PT% shooter than Murray, it might make that area less of a strength (in exchange for better everything else) but the team should still be pretty good there.
   3482. DCA Posted: June 29, 2022 at 06:43 PM (#6084606)
Gobert for Capela/Collins/picks makes so much sense for both teams (more now for Atlanta); which is to say it's probably not going to happen and all parties will be worse off as a result.
   3483. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 06:56 PM (#6084609)
3481/dca - I’d agree except that Murray will take minutes from the two most prolific shooters remaining (beyond Trae) in the two guys I mentioned. (I mean potentially, there are other shoes to drop for roster composition). Just an angle I don’t think the media will catch…
   3484. Mike A Posted: June 29, 2022 at 07:01 PM (#6084610)
Overall, I'm excited for the Hawks, though the 2026 swap and 2027 pick make me pretty darn nervous. But...the Hawks are young and pretty talented, so I'm hoping those remain at worst (best?) mid-tier picks.

I don't really get trading John Collins now, though. Okongwu can't spread the floor like Collins 'cause he can't shoot. Why not just hang onto Collins and see how it goes?

As asked above - there's some talk the Hawks still go after Gobert/Ayton, but apparently Trae went to bat for Capela, so I'm not sure if those are just idle rumors.
   3485. spivey Posted: June 29, 2022 at 07:58 PM (#6084622)
Gobert for Capela/Collins/picks makes so much sense

What picks? Atlanta has their 2023 FRP. With a core of Trae/Murray/shooters/Gobert that's not a super valuable asset imo. Outside of that they can't deal a pick until 2029. Dealing picks that far out is kind of dicey.

I don't think Capela is a positive asset on that contract. I guess a deal can get done, but I think for it to happen that Utah has to either really like Collins, or the Atlanta is going to have to start offering picks out into the next decade.
   3486. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 29, 2022 at 09:10 PM (#6084645)
I think advanced metrics are probably significantly undervaluing KCP on defense (no, I have no proof


Maybe. He had a negative DBPM in Washington this past year (-0.6) and their team D dropped from 19th to 25th.

That said, when he was with the Lakers, he did not do anything flashy, but he did seem to combine with Caruso to do a good job containing/funneling on the perimeter and did not seem to miss many assignments and switches. But that is just eye-test stuff from watching him play on a good team. Denver's FO pretty clearly thinks that he is bringing something to the table on D that does not show up on a Bask Ref page.
   3487. rr would lock Shaq's a$$ up Posted: June 29, 2022 at 09:21 PM (#6084651)
San Antonio/Atlanta: Murray is good, took a big leap last year, and is just hitting his prime, so I get it, but that seems like a lot of draft capital for a guy who is not a superstar. From San Antonio's POV, I also get it, but it seems like if you are building, Murray is a guy you keep. So I am not sure that I like it that much for either team.
   3488. tshipman Posted: June 29, 2022 at 11:25 PM (#6084684)
What picks? Atlanta has their 2023 FRP. With a core of Trae/Murray/shooters/Gobert that's not a super valuable asset imo. Outside of that they can't deal a pick until 2029. Dealing picks that far out is kind of dicey.

I don't think Capela is a positive asset on that contract. I guess a deal can get done, but I think for it to happen that Utah has to either really like Collins, or the Atlanta is going to have to start offering picks out into the next decade.


I agree that Capela seems to have negative value, but I don't understand that view. Capela is younger than Gobert, played at a DPOY level last year, and is basically the same kind of regular season only player as Gobert, but for half the cost.

Kind of hate this deal for Atlanta--3 picks for a guy who is fringe all star is the sort of deal you regret. You only get to take this kind of bite at the apple once, and giving up all that draft equity for a guy who is pretty good is a big mistake.
   3489. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 29, 2022 at 11:54 PM (#6084689)
Miles Bridges arrested for felony DV.

KCP D: I think perimeter defenders who are low stock / stick to their guy types are systematically underrated by some metrics - KCP is off this ilk.
I’m not a fan in aggregate mind you.

Capela was mediocre last year but also likely to be better than that going forward (and was quite a bit better the year before). But, his lack of a floor game and shooting does (imo) significantly impact who you should team with him.
   3490. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: June 30, 2022 at 12:37 AM (#6084699)
OKC didn’t pick up muscala’s team option? I’m surprised.
   3491. tshipman Posted: June 30, 2022 at 12:37 AM (#6084700)
Capela was mediocre last year but also likely to be better than that going forward (and was quite a bit better the year before). But, his lack of a floor game and shooting does (imo) significantly impact who you should team with him.


Yes (and sorry for saying last year, I meant two years ago), but there's no difference between him and Gobert in that regard.

I guess I don't get trading him for Gobert. It's not like the difference between them is super meaningful most years.
   3492. sardonic Posted: June 30, 2022 at 06:47 AM (#6084708)
I think the Murray deal gets to the heart of a lot of stuff that we've been talking about the last... 10 years?

Kind of hate this deal for Atlanta--3 picks for a guy who is fringe all star is the sort of deal you regret. You only get to take this kind of bite at the apple once, and giving up all that draft equity for a guy who is pretty good is a big mistake.


Is the goal for a franchise to be championship or bust, and you only go all in when you have the nuts or at least a clear line of sight to winning a chip? Those deals only happen once every few years (adding AD to Lebron, KD to the Warriors, the Decision), and even those don't even always work out (putting together KD, Kyrie and Harden is a notable recent example). I don't even think adding Jrue to the Bucks was a slam dunk at the time, it just happened to work out.

I think you have to take some shots, and this move is like the front office version of taking a Jimmy Butler pulling up for that three in a make or miss league. I can envision ways this could work out -- is this the Warriors adding Andre Iguodala after the 2012-13 season, a team that finished in the 6 seed and lost in the second round to the Spurs? Iggy was a fringe All Star, an iffy shooter on a middling playoff team. The Warriors gave up 2 first round picks and 3 second round picks to get off the contracts of Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush to create the cap space for the sign and trade.

I mean yeah, a lot of other stuff had to go right. That team lost to the Lob City Clippers in the first round the next season, replaced Mark Jackson with Steve Kerr and watched the Splash Brothers grow into the title of best backcourt in basketball. Draymond still had to become a starter for the first time and usurp David Lee.

There are less flashy versions of this, like the 2011 Mavs benefitting from Jason Kidd as their second or third best player, who was acquired in his late prime for 2 first round picks.

So yeah, this move probably won't result in a championship, because most moves don't. What other avenues did the Hawks have to add impact talent to their core? Is this really worse than futzing around with Mike Muscala?
   3493. MHS Posted: June 30, 2022 at 08:41 AM (#6084718)
I really like Sardonic’s last point for a couple reasons. First, I agree with parts of it but also think parts of it kind of bunk. In other words, it’s a perfect storm of words that make me want to engage with the content, both mentally and typing here.

For the first part, no I don’t think every move can or should be viewed as championship or bust. With that said, it should be viewed with the context of the teams specific long and short term objectives. We can and should disagree with what some of those objectives are but that’s a very different conversation. Frankly, nearly everyone in the media and fans - like us - are massively guilty of porting what we think should be teams objectives into every transaction and it leads to bad analysis.

One of the big challenges is of course don’t have certainty over what the long term objectives of various teams are. Some teams we have a strong idea - Lakers and Celtics - championship or bust. GSW perpetual contenders. Charlotte and Indiana remain viable franchises in market. Others we (I) have no idea - what the #### are the knicks doing ever! I’d love an exercise to crowd surf what different teams long term objective is.

Moving on… The Andre deal is a terrible example, imho, of what Sardonic was trying to make. At least, I think it was (assuming the end game was a title or something similar, though it very well might not have been).It was a massive bet that required a huge number of highly unlikely events to occur to deliver the desired outcome.

As it relates to this deal. Assuming the end game here is for Atlanta to hoist a banner, this isn’t a bad deal - I think it might be a good one - with a massive left tail. Since it does move them closer., the problem of course is it doesn’t move them probabilisticly into the land of true title contender. It’s a move that is massively dependent on future dominoes falling. The great part as a fan is that it’s live. It could happen. They still have assets so can pull the trigger on another big deal if something comes up. They still have good young players who can develop. Also, they have tons of time as the key players are young and in good health.

It’s a big a boy move that could be great or could be a disaster. I think they likely overpaid in terms of draft equity but trading for guys early in their prime with good track records require that.

Fun times.


   3494. spivey Posted: June 30, 2022 at 08:55 AM (#6084723)
Capela was mediocre last year but also likely to be better than that going forward (and was quite a bit better the year before). But, his lack of a floor game and shooting does (imo) significantly impact who you should team with him.


I agree he'll be better, and I like him, but in today's NBA, having 20mil/year tied up for 3 years for a center that can't shoot and is just a play finisher I don't think is a great use of assets. There's a lot of guys that give you a lot of what Capela does for much less cost. Okongwu for instance. I think Capela's 20-21 season was probably his career year, though he did have some very nice seasons earlier in Houston. But his last Houston year I think was weaker too.

I guess I don't get trading him for Gobert. It's not like the difference between them is super meaningful most years.


I don't think the stats bear that out. I know you're skeptical of black box stats, but on-off doesn't bear this out either.
   3495. sardonic Posted: June 30, 2022 at 08:58 AM (#6084724)
Moving on… The Andre deal is a terrible example, imho, of what Sardonic was trying to make. At least, I think it was (assuming the end game was a title or something similar, though it very well might not have been).It was a massive bet that required a huge number of highly unlikely events to occur to deliver the desired outcome.


I mean yeah that was exactly my point -- that is also exactly what the Murray deal seems like now, so in that sense I agree with tship. My point is that many championships require some kind of move like this. It's also true that most moves like this don't result in championships. But you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, so I think the standard should be less "is this move that's clearly part of a championship endgame?" -- I don't think this -- but whether that was the best move you could have made to maximize your championship equity at a given time.
   3496. MHS Posted: June 30, 2022 at 09:31 AM (#6084730)
Sardonic, we’ll need to agree to disagree on this one. I think ATL is much closer to a title right now than when GSW added Andrea. For example Trae is much more established than Steph was at the time.
   3497. DCA Posted: June 30, 2022 at 09:47 AM (#6084732)
Trae is more established, but I think Steph was better (even without the benefit of hindsight), or at the very least had an obvious path to actual stardom that Trae doesn't have. Young Steph was a much better shooter, and much less bad defender, he just needed to show that he could maintain that going from medium usage to high usage. Which isn't guaranteed, but is far more likely than substantially improving at defense and shooting.

I think I'm mostly with sardonic here. The Hawks overpaid, but the deal doesn't get done without overpaying, and this is the kind of floor-raising *and* ceiling-raising move that you have to make if available.
   3498. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 30, 2022 at 09:50 AM (#6084733)
One of Steph's major issues, when he was younger, was all the ankle issues he had.
   3499. DCA Posted: June 30, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6084734)
That's true, but I think it is overstated. He missed significant time in only one of his first 8 seasons. Second lowest games played was 74, other six seasons were 78+. There was health issue, it was resolved, he kept going.
   3500. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 30, 2022 at 09:59 AM (#6084735)
Oh sure, but it was a warning flag (that resolved at near its 100% outcome).
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