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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4354 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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4201. asinwreck Posted: August 25, 2022 at 10:05 AM (#6093179)

Holmgren has the worst-case scenario. Sam Presti's hopes for Wembanyama don't take a hit.

Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
Oklahoma City Thunder 7-footer Chet Holmgren will miss the 2022-2023 season with a Lisfranc injury to his right foot. Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, suffered the injury in a Pro-Am game in Seattle on Saturday.

4202. Spivey Posted: August 25, 2022 at 10:13 AM (#6093182)

Wow, that really sucks. Wondering if this might squash some of these pro-am games that seem like they've been more popular this year.

4203. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 25, 2022 at 10:21 AM (#6093183)

Sucks for Chet. I dunno re: pro/am future. Seems like this kind of injury probably was inevitable for Chet? It may be a blessing in disguise in terms of allowing him to have a year to work on his body.

4204. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 25, 2022 at 10:26 AM (#6093184)

Great Twitter joke I saw:

If this enables OKC to draft Wemby, they should rename the team the Oklahoma Thinder.

4205. jmurph Posted: August 25, 2022 at 10:36 AM (#6093187)

I don't think we're seeing peak Kawhi again. George is a fine second banana but just that and has his own injury questions.

Do we see a 60 game season from Kawhi ever again? Before missing last year he played 57 (of 72) and 52 (and 9 his last year in San Antonio, 60 his only year in Toronto).

PG is 48 (of 72), 54, and 31.

4206. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 25, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6093191)

Kawhi has averaged, not counting last year, 57 games per season. I would say it's exceptionally unlikely he ever reaches that total in a season again.

4207. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 25, 2022 at 11:38 AM (#6093198)

Chet Holmgren out for the season. Boo.

4208. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: August 25, 2022 at 11:53 AM (#6093200)

I honestly don't get the Clippers always appearing high on lists like this. I don't think we're seeing peak Kawhi again. George is a fine second banana but just that and has his own injury questions.

Kawhi and Westbrook have been my two favorite players over the past 15 years, and yeah, it's painful to see them at this stage of their careers.

4209. Spivey Posted: August 25, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6093204)

Kawhi Leonard is going to be one of the hardest players of all time to rank. He's only played 576 regular season games. 40% of those (his first 4 seasons) he was a very good role player, but that's it. The wing version of Bill Walton, I guess.

4210. Fourth True Outcome Posted: August 25, 2022 at 12:37 PM (#6093211)

4211. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: August 25, 2022 at 02:42 PM (#6093236)

1) This Chet injury is such a bummer.

2) I actually had just been thinking about how weird it is that basketball players play in these leagues from a liability standpoint. I don't think anything equivalent happens in any other sports?

3) It seems to disconfirm one of my more speculative beliefs, that Chet's skinniness might actually have the significant upside of a lower risk of foot injuries (it seems like big men always have a ton of foot injuries, which I'd attributed to putting so much weight on them).

4212. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: August 25, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6093246)

4213. Hombre Brotani

Posted: August 25, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6093259)

3) It seems to disconfirm one of my more speculative beliefs, that Chet's skinniness might actually have the significant upside of a lower risk of foot injuries

A lot of foot injuries come from landings. Holmgren having to deal with bad landings because he's not being strong enough to absorb contact and maintain his balance and land properly is probably a consequence more people should've predicted. (I mean, a LOT of people predicted he'd get bullied/hurt because of his skinniness, but I didn't hear anyone predict this injury.)

4214. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: August 25, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6093270)

2) I actually had just been thinking about how weird it is that basketball players play in these leagues from a liability standpoint. I don't think anything equivalent happens in any other sports?

a not insignificant number of MLB players participate in various caribbean winter leagues, and those are a much more competitive environment than pro-am summer camps.

A lot of foot injuries come from landings. Holmgren having to deal with bad landings because he's not being strong enough to absorb contact and maintain his balance and land properly is probably a consequence more people should've predicted.

oh ffs; now someone else is going to start doing it.

4215. Spivey Posted: August 26, 2022 at 08:50 AM (#6093319)

I wouldn't let one person suffering an injury move my needle on #3.
I don't believe it was a factor buttttt have any thoughtful people suggested that the condition of the court may have played a role here? (After all, they did cancel the game in q2 because of a wet floor.)

I was thinking about that. You can outlaw the pro-ams but these guys are always going to scrimmage/workout together some, especially if one player booms another in the playoffs. Chet sounds like he was cleared to play in this game.

But the court situation doesn't sound good from what I've heard. The folks involved should probably be lawyering up, if they hadn't already (hopefully they already had with the amount of liability involved).

4216. Russlan is not Russian Posted: August 26, 2022 at 10:53 AM (#6093328)

My only real take on the Lakers trading for PatBev is that it seems likely he and Westbrook will either be best friends by the end of the season or Westbrook will take out a hit on Beverly. Anything in between the two seems kinda unlikely.

I think this means the Lakers are trading Westbrook. Niether Beverley nor RWB seem like guys who would be able to get past their previous beef.

4217. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 26, 2022 at 11:24 AM (#6093330)

This sounds ... bad.

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Taurean Prince was reportedly arrested at Miami International Airport on Thursday.

According to KSTP in Minnesota, Prince was picked up on a "fugitive warrant out of state extradite."

David Ovalle of the Miami Herald reported he was arrested at the airport and the warrant was from Texas. According to Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640, the warrant is regarding "dangerous drugs."

4218. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: August 26, 2022 at 11:42 AM (#6093333)

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Taurean Prince was reportedly arrested at Miami International Airport on Thursday.

According to KSTP in Minnesota, Prince was picked up on a "fugitive warrant out of state extradite."

David Ovalle of the Miami Herald reported he was arrested at the airport and the warrant was from Texas. According to Andy Slater of Fox Sports 640, the warrant is regarding "dangerous drugs."

given that it's texas, it's worth waiting to make sure the "dangerous drugs" in question aren't just birth control pills, or HRT, or 3/4 of an ounce of marijuana. even though he went to college at baylor (where, let it be noted that he did this), i still think he deserves more benefit of the doubt than any unnamed texas cop/judge/prosecutor.

oh and btw, fun fact:

texas's attorney general (that's ted cruz's previous job) is now on year 7 of dodging a felony indictment for securities fraud.

4219. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 26, 2022 at 12:24 PM (#6093335)

Apparently the warrant was for trace amounts of marijuana found in a traffic stop.

Texas!

4220. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: August 26, 2022 at 12:58 PM (#6093349)

Paxton seems like a real piece of work. Sorry for the political aside.

4221. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: August 26, 2022 at 09:01 PM (#6093402)

the wolves move fast in the wind:

Dane Moore @DaneMooreNBA
The Timberwolves have acquired Nik Stauskas, per team release. The Timberwolves will have Stauskas's G-League rights, via their G-League affiliate the Iowa Wolves. Would assume this means Stauskas can participate in Timberwolves training camp.

4222. smileyy Posted: August 26, 2022 at 10:42 PM (#6093411)

[4219] IOW the Brittney Griner treatment.

4223. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 29, 2022 at 10:20 AM (#6093582)

Is it wrong to be excited to see what Anthony Edwards does this year? Is it?

4224. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 29, 2022 at 12:19 PM (#6093597)

Is it wrong to be excited to see what Anthony Edwards does this year? Is it?

If it is wrong, I don't want to be right.

4225. jmurph Posted: August 30, 2022 at 07:37 AM (#6093688)

That is a big number for RJ Barrett:

New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett is finalizing a four-year rookie extension that could be worth up to $120 million, his agent Bill Duffy of @BDA_Sports + @WME_Sports told ESPN, complicating the franchise’s offseason trade pursuit of Utah Jazz All-Star Donovan Mitchell.

4226. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 30, 2022 at 08:12 AM (#6093690)

The first since Charlie Ward!

4227. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 30, 2022 at 08:23 AM (#6093691)

Is RJ Barrett good?

I'm still sort of convinced that good NBA "role players" are underpaid and non-elite NBA "first and second option guys" are overpaid, but I've thought that for a while now and people that know more than me keep giving out checks so guess I'll take their word for it.

4228. jmurph Posted: August 30, 2022 at 08:47 AM (#6093692)

Is RJ Barrett good?

It's not clear to me that he is yet, but I haven't watched him closely enough yet to form a strong opinion on whether he will be.

4229. asinwreck Posted: August 30, 2022 at 09:08 AM (#6093694)

Does this mean Donovan Mitchell stays in Utah?

4230. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 30, 2022 at 09:29 AM (#6093696)

Mitchell still likely gets traded at some point, IMO. Utah is pretty clearly rebuilding. I am amused by the possibility that the Gobert haul was large enough that it is hindering trading Mitchell. Not saying that is what is happening, just amused at the possibility.

4231. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 30, 2022 at 09:34 AM (#6093698)

I'm just spit-balling, but if I were running the Jazz I'd be able to find some sort of Mitchell package that involved other Knicks Kids and picks picks picks and taking Barrett off the table wouldn't change things that much.

4232. jmurph Posted: August 30, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6093704)

I am amused by the possibility that the Gobert haul was large enough that it is hindering trading Mitchell. Not saying that is what is happening, just amused at the possibility.

That has to be happening to some degree, right? It might be tough to convince sellers to take less for what they perceive to be comparable talent.

4233. Spivey Posted: August 30, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6093705)

Yeah I don't think Utah wanted RJ Barrett. They seem to clearly want a deep tank, so they want picks + salary filler + maybe guys on rookie scale contracts (Toppin, Grimes, etc.).

I was a bit surprised they didn't get anything more than THT for Beverly. I thought Beverly could have fetched a FRP from a team wanting to be good. Maybe there just aren't that many teams that are good with FRPs to trade.

4234. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 30, 2022 at 10:43 AM (#6093712)

It's old news now but has there been any public speculation as to why the Gobert haul was seemingly more than the typical haul?

4235. kubiwan Posted: August 30, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6093718)

It's old news now but has there been any public speculation as to why the Gobert haul was seemingly more than the typical haul?

Throughout their history, teams have found that dealing with the Timberwolves is a great way to get a steal...

4236. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 30, 2022 at 11:16 AM (#6093720)

I have seen and heard much speculation about the Gobert trade price, but nothing solid. Especially since it was done by brand new GM, with plenty of runway to evaluate. He didn't need to do a blockbuster, so I think he just really wanted Gobert for the team.

4237. DCA Posted: August 30, 2022 at 11:16 AM (#6093721)

I was a bit surprised they didn't get anything more than THT for Beverly.

Well, he's no Royce O'Neale. And technically they also got Stanley Johnson.

4238. DCA Posted: August 30, 2022 at 11:21 AM (#6093722)

It's old news now but has there been any public speculation as to why the Gobert haul was seemingly more than the typical haul?

Guess based on nothing: The Wolves wanted Gobert more than Jazz wanted him gone. So they overbid to get the player.

4239. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 30, 2022 at 11:36 AM (#6093723)

Guess based on nothing: The Wolves wanted Gobert more than Jazz wanted him gone. So they overbid to get the player.

This feels right to me. Also, what Mouse said above, about Connelly being new and wanting to make a splash.

4240. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 30, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6093730)

This is the most interesting the Wolves have been ... since forever? There are interesting plotlines and questions around basically every starter and around the organization as a whole.

4241. GregD Posted: August 30, 2022 at 01:10 PM (#6093731)

Is it wrong to be excited to see what Anthony Edwards does this year? Is it?

Anyone who isn't interested in seeing if Edwards can make the next step isn't a basketball fan. I mean it has to be one of the 20 or so biggest stories of this coming season, doesn't it?

4242. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 30, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6093732)

This is the most interesting the Wolves have been ... since forever?

It is, yeah. They were going to be interesting before the trade, and it just made them flat out fascinating.

4243. jmurph Posted: August 30, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6093733)

Technically I think the multi-day Butler tantrum is still the most interesting the Wolves have been recently.

4244. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 30, 2022 at 01:24 PM (#6093735)

Technically I think the multi-day Butler tantrum is still the most interesting the Wolves have been recently.

Woof.

4245. asinwreck Posted: August 30, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6093741)

The Wolves might get even more interesting soon.

4246. Spivey Posted: August 30, 2022 at 02:21 PM (#6093743)

I love Edwards and I think he's established himself as clearly a better prospect and current player than Lamelo at this point. I think people are talking about him taking the superstar leap and I think it's pretty unfair expectations. I think being a deserving fringe all-star would be a plenty good leap.

4247. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 30, 2022 at 02:48 PM (#6093745)

Yeah, if he's basically the same guy as he was after the knee last year, with perhaps more point of attack defence responsibilities -- I'll take that, happily.

4248. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: August 30, 2022 at 03:45 PM (#6093751)

I think people are talking about him taking the superstar leap and I think it's pretty unfair expectations.

Sure, except the main person talking about Ant Edwards taking that leap is Ant Edwards. Your expectation is way more reasonable, but I can dream.

4249. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 30, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6093812)

I love Edwards and I think he's established himself as clearly a better prospect and current player than Lamelo at this point.

I think people are a little too low on Lamelo. He was a fringe all-star last year (actually made the team as well), and the list of 20 year olds who give you 20/7/7 is a who's who of superstars.

I think most of his bad habits on defense are fixable with coaching.

***

I don't think the Timberwolves are particularly interesting. They remind me of the Lakers last year.

4250. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 31, 2022 at 08:57 AM (#6093842)

Time wasters, engage: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/

4251. jmurph Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:15 AM (#6093844)

Just want to file my annual complaint that I wish 538 would hire some people to design a functional website for them. Can I look at the player projections for an entire team? The top 20 (or however many) projected players, in order? Who can say!

4252. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:41 AM (#6093847)

I don't think the Timberwolves are particularly interesting. They remind me of the Lakers last year.

Selling the farm for an unusual player where conventional wisdom hates the fit?

4253. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:49 AM (#6093849)

Just want to file my annual complaint that I wish 538 would hire some people to design a functional website for them. Can I look at the player projections for an entire team? The top 20 (or however many) projected players, in order? Who can say!

I'm starting to wonder if it's intentional to keep me clicking/wasting time.

4254. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:55 AM (#6093850)

Peak Forecasted Raptor Combined +/- For Various Youngins:

LaMelo Ball +6.1
Ja Morant +4.6
Anthony Edwards +4.5
Scottie Barnes +3.8
Cade Cunningham +3.1
Evan Mobley +1.8

4255. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: August 31, 2022 at 10:00 AM (#6093851)

That seems low for Mobley?, although, I don't think much of +/- as a stat in whatever form.

4256. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 31, 2022 at 10:24 AM (#6093856)

Just want to file my annual complaint that I wish 538 would hire some people to design a functional website for them. Can I look at the player projections for an entire team? The top 20 (or however many) projected players, in order? Who can say!

I'm starting to wonder if it's intentional to keep me clicking/wasting time.

538 is designed for people who read about sports on the New York Times.

***

Selling the farm for an unusual player where conventional wisdom hates the fit?

A team that gets talked up in the pre-season due to the talent with multiple players who have to have the team designed around them and all fit questions are ignored.

4257. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 31, 2022 at 10:38 AM (#6093858)

That seems low for Mobley?, although, I don't think much of +/- as a stat in whatever form.

Caught me, too. My guess when looking at their numbers is his offensive number last season (via their system, whatever is behind it) was extremely low and that's capping his ceiling.

FWIW their take on his offense seems lower than the take at other various all-in-one sites.

4258. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: August 31, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6093867)

GUYS THEIR SYSTEM IS BAD PLEASE DON'T OVERANALYZE OR TAKE IT SERIOUSLY

(Scheduled yearly post)

4259. Fourth True Outcome Posted: August 31, 2022 at 12:38 PM (#6093873)

A team that gets talked up in the pre-season due to the talent with multiple players who have to have the team designed around them and all fit questions are ignored.

I think the thing I'm most curious about with the Twolves is how the Gobert fit will be. I'm in the camp that thinks part of Gobert's rep for being a tricky fit is an unfair side effect of Utah's roster, but I've never been sure how much. Minny isn't surrounding him with a bunch of lockdown wings, but I'm still very interested to see how he does in a different environment and scheme, and also if he and KAT can coexist.

Also on the Minny front, I try not to care overmuch about the financial doings of team owners, but ARod's team failing to make their payments leading to Glen Taylor keeping the team does feel like it would be a very Wovles tragedy.

QFT:

GUYS THEIR SYSTEM IS BAD PLEASE DON'T OVERANALYZE OR TAKE IT SERIOUSLY

Also this:

538 is designed for people who read about sports on the New York Times.

is a great burn.

4260. DCA Posted: August 31, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6093874)

A team that gets talked up in the pre-season due to the talent with multiple players who have to have the team designed around them and all fit questions are ignored.

I don't think this is correct at all.

The Lakers don't have any players that need the team designed around them. LeBron and Davis make any team better. They either fit well with rest of the roster, or they are better than whoever they duplicate/displace. They also fit well with each other, evidence the 2020 championship with a mediocre supporting cast. Westbrook needs to dominate the ball, but that's not unusual for a PG. He fits easily on a lot of teams (or did, before he was washed). The problem is that he duplicates with LeBron, and isn't as good as LeBron, so he doesn't add value to a LeBron team, and that mediocre supporting cast got gutted to acquire him, so now it's basically a G-league team outside of the big 3 (or big 2, really). But there were no fit questions. There was a Westbrook/LeBron fit *problem* there was no chance it was going to work.

The Wolves on the other have a fit question. I can see the Gobert/Towns pairing working very well, and I can see it working badly. The rest of the roster is made of normalish guys that fit around either one of the Twin City Towers. I don't think either Gobert or Towns is particularly difficult to build a team around, any more than any other good but flawed big would be. The question is if they can play together, and I think the answer is yes, even if the pairing is not ideal. But I see the possibility of synergy and the possibility getting in each other's way.

4261. Spivey Posted: August 31, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6093891)

Yeah, I think the Lakers had more of a talent problem than a fit problem. Westbrook is a bad fit everywhere because he's bad now. AD didn't play as an all-NBA player. Malik Monk was their 3rd best player.

4262. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 31, 2022 at 02:38 PM (#6093895)

I feel like I don't take these things "too seriously" but they do interest me. Do they not interest others, like even at all?

Basically I just look at each of these "all-in-one" stats as a decent guess at an individual players value. Not a perfect guess and certainly not omnipotent or precise, but just an individual useful piece of information. (edit to add - I tend to think less of the 538 version of this than what I find at dunksandthrees or Darko, for whatever that's worth, probably not much since I'm making this judgment based on nothing concrete.)

Maybe that's giving them too much value, but I don't think so.

4263. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: August 31, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6093896)

I want to give 538 credit for this: I’d never come up with Kyle O’Quinn as a comp for Hartenstein— and that’s excellent. (Hartenstein is better)

4264. Mike A Posted: August 31, 2022 at 02:51 PM (#6093899)

According to 538, Kawhi Leonard and Ben Simmons are 'Key Role Players' moving forward.

Kawhi's #1 comp is Paul George, while Ben's is every Hawk fan's favorite player - Danny Manning.

Yeah, I know this all doesn't mean much, but it's still fun to hit 'Random Player' over and over.

4265. jmurph Posted: August 31, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6093902)

I feel like I don't take these things "too seriously" but they do interest me. Do they not interest others, like even at all?

I like them, too, if nothing else they're good thread fodder for us. That's why I wish the site was easier to navigate!

4266. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: August 31, 2022 at 05:02 PM (#6093920)

i think they're fun and also potentially useful, once you account for what you think are their biases. (Not that Athletic Supporter is wrong - 538 has serious issues.)

4267. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:43 PM (#6093958)

I don't think this is correct at all.

The Lakers don't have any players that need the team designed around them. LeBron and Davis make any team better. They either fit well with rest of the roster, or they are better than whoever they duplicate/displace. They also fit well with each other, evidence the 2020 championship with a mediocre supporting cast. Westbrook needs to dominate the ball, but that's not unusual for a PG. He fits easily on a lot of teams (or did, before he was washed). The problem is that he duplicates with LeBron, and isn't as good as LeBron, so he doesn't add value to a LeBron team, and that mediocre supporting cast got gutted to acquire him, so now it's basically a G-league team outside of the big 3 (or big 2, really). But there were no fit questions. There was a Westbrook/LeBron fit *problem* there was no chance it was going to work.

Maybe this is semantics.

I think there were definite questions about how Westbrook was going to play. Zach Lowe talked about it a ton--were we going to see Houston Russ? There was the notorious game early season where Westbrook set like 8 screens and then he basically set 8 more the whole rest of the season. So I sort of disagree that there was no chance it was going to work.

I think AD actually does have a lot of fit issues with most teams. He insists on playing PF on defense and C on offense. I think that's just who he is at this point, and it actually does cause fit issues on most teams because there are only so many Myles Turners to go around.

I think that Towns and Gobert basically have the same obvious fit issues that Westbrook and LeBron had. They both play the same position, and they both have had significant amounts of success playing that position. It is possible, of course, that one or both of them completely changes their game to accommodate the other, but I don't think it's very likely and I think if they did change their game, it would make them a worse player. Gobert can't roll to the rim while Towns posts up, and Towns can't guard 5 out the same way that Gobert can't guard 5 out.

4268. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: August 31, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6093959)

I thought 538's purpose was a source to go to when you want some stats and you're not picky about whether they correlate to value or mean anything. (It's also useful if you enjoy atrocious writing.)

4269. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 09:20 AM (#6093996)

538's weakest spot is basketball. They just live in weird hot-take land (with a bespoke model to back up the hot-take). The very first player I looked at was Jaden McDaniels, they have him listed as a power forward, which is ... not his position going forward.

4270. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 09:27 AM (#6093998)

They have Anthony Edwards as a Small Forward and getting better next year (3rd year, 22) and then not getting meaningfully better at all for the rest of the projection window. OK, his high and low get broader over time.

Maybe if they put him as a 2 guard (which is where he will be playing for the foreseeable future) they might not have his height in the "bad" category. He could absolutely not break out, injuries happen and such, but the Wolves had such weird small roster construction last year it has hit both players I looked at. Interesting toy though and fun thread bait.

4271. Mike A Posted: September 01, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6093999)

Darren Collison is listed as an 'OK Prospect' who will peak in 2027 with +2.1 plus/minus.

Think the system might have missed he's 35 years old and has played 37 NBA minutes since 2019.

4272. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: September 01, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6094011)

Darren Collison is listed as an 'OK Prospect' who will peak in 2027 with +2.1 plus/minus.

So, in other words, it's 538.

4273. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 01, 2022 at 01:11 PM (#6094019)

They have Anthony Edwards as a Small Forward and getting better next year (3rd year, 22) and then not getting meaningfully better at all for the rest of the projection window.

I looked at 6-8 players yesterday and although I didn't dig too deeply into the numbers or if I thought they made sense, I did notice that it didn't seem to account for aging arcs like I'd expect. Several of the players were pre-25 and none had what I would consider normal aging curves to their projections, just decline. Shrug emoji.

4274. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 01, 2022 at 01:34 PM (#6094020)

One of the challenges with building models to project performance is that in the aggregate, most guys are out of the league after their rookie contract.

In the 2016 NBA draft, basically half the first round is out of the league or replacement level. The second round is more like 80%.

So those data points will drag down your expectations unless you specifically build your model to ignore washouts.

4275. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 01, 2022 at 02:08 PM (#6094025)

While on subject of rankings and projections and bad websites, I'm wondering if anyone out there has kept track of something like the ESPN Rank 100 of players going back years. ESPN's site also seems designed for clicks/confusion not ease.

Not saying that their list is good or bad or whatever compared to average list, but at least it seems like something they've put out year after year for a while now and it'd be interesting to see history of it in one place.

Or if anyone's put a list like that together with some consistency.

I like the one Seth Partnow does at The Athletic but that's only going back to last year, I think.

4276. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6094038)

A true wojbomb:

@wojespn
The Cleveland Cavaliers have acquired Donovan Mitchell in a trade, sources tell ESPN.

4277. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:36 PM (#6094039)

what

4278. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6094040)

Whoa. Zach Lowe's podcast from about a month ago pointed out that Cleveland allowed a lot of shots at the rim last year (and was pretty good at defending them). With a perimeter of Garland, Mitchell and Markannen/Love, that's a trend that is likely to continue.

4279. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6094041)

Sexton, Markkonnen, Agbaji, 3 FRP and 2 FRP swaps?

4280. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6094042)

Also, Sexton gets paid: 4/72.

4281. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6094043)

Am I crazy to not hate that for the Cavs?

I mean this trend of giving up, like, the moon in first round picks and swaps is hilarious. But within those confines, like, Cleveland probably projected to be mediocre in the near future so not adding any premium pieces through the draft. If your championship scenario is predicted on Mobley making a leap, you could do a lot worse than Mitchell as a plausible second banana.

Mitchell + Garland will be interesting from a height standpoint on D especially, but I suspect it's not a terminal flaw.

I like this significantly better than the all-in moves the Wovles and Hawks made.

4282. asinwreck Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6094044)

Markkanen on the Jazz seems predestined.

4283. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: September 01, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6094045)

I kind of love that deal for Cleveland. Having a true lead scorer was their main weakness last year. They seemed out on Sexton, and I think Mitchell's better than Sexton anyway.

Downsides: none of their perimeter guys (Garland, Mitchell, Levert, Rubio) are much better than "average" from deep. Even an improved Cleveland is still bottom half of a strong East, and could easily be back in the play-in with some bad luck.

4284. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 01, 2022 at 04:21 PM (#6094049)

Cleveland was clearly out on Sexton, but as someone who's always been relatively lukewarm on Mitchell (I tend to think undersized combo scorers who neither pass nor defend well are broadly overrated) it seems like a ton of draft equity to pay for a player who doesn't seem much better than the best case scenario for Sexton? Unless you put a lot of stock in Sexton's bad numbers in 11 games last season or think he's not going to be healthy going forward, at 22 he put up 24 ppg at Mitchell-level efficiency with similar assist/rebound numbers. It's entirely possible I'm underrating Mitchell, but it doesn't seem crazy to think that Sexton could give a team most of what Mitchell does, and Cleveland could've had him and kept all their picks. Am I missing something about Sexton, or does Cleveland just value Mitchell above how I do?

Edit: Put more succinctly, I guess, this seems like an overpay to lock in the best case scenario for Sexton and maybe accelerate their timeline. I may be underrating the value in that certainty, though.

4285. Spivey Posted: September 01, 2022 at 04:37 PM (#6094052)

Love the Mitchell trade for Cleveland so much. Basketball baby!

4286. Spivey Posted: September 01, 2022 at 04:41 PM (#6094053)

I think Cleveland should be pretty good. They were good last year until the injuries piled up. They do still need a wing badly, but Lauri wasn't that and I think getting off his deal would cost about a first, so I think needs to be factored into this deal.

Gobert returned more equity than Mitchell. Wow.

4287. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: September 01, 2022 at 04:41 PM (#6094054)

I think Garland is a very good "true talent" guy from deep. He's excellent on "very deep" shots and 38% from three overall, with 89% on the line.

Still thinking about what I think about this deal.

4288. Spivey Posted: September 01, 2022 at 04:42 PM (#6094055)

I guess one good thing for Utah. The picks don't start until 2025 (I think because of the LeVert deal?). So far enough to where #### can go wrong and they're worth a lot.

4289. asinwreck Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:06 PM (#6094059)

Absent a rapid turnaround for Utah, those pick swaps are unlikely to convey. (Which has me wondering if there are identifiable trends in pick swaps actually conveying.)

4290. Spivey Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6094060)

Pick swaps can be pretty valuable even if both teams suck. 2 bites at the lottery apple.

4291. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:23 PM (#6094064)

so, if you run cleveland - you have roster spots to fill for a possible contender. who do you try to add?

4292. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:39 PM (#6094066)

They have to be looking to add the best wing depth they can, right? They've got good guards and bigs, but their wings are Okoro, Osman, and DWade. I don't know who's available (and everyone wants more/better wings in today's NBA), but adding a good wing seems like it could go a long way for that roster.

4293. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6094067)

I like the trade for Utah. I am having trouble visualizing the new Cavs, so I have to think about that more.

4294. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:41 PM (#6094068)

But yeah, more wings is the obvious play for the Cavs. But do they have the resources to get a real wing that can move the needle?

4295. . . . . . . Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:42 PM (#6094069)

I think the Knicks made the right decision in not topping this offer.

4296. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:50 PM (#6094071)

1. Good for Collin Sexton. He was getting squeezed for no real reason.
2. Weird trend this off-season with play-in teams trading multiple first round picks.
3. I kinda get this trade for Cleveland in that if Mobley develops, they have four all-star level players, which at least in theory makes you a contender. That said, seems like an overpay.
4. I don't know who won this trade, but Minnesota lost this trade.

4297. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 05:51 PM (#6094072)

It will be interesting watching the two Utah mega trades. I think MN is better positioned after their trade, but as a homer of course I would say that.

Thinking about the trade for the Cavs ... I think it is OK. A reasonable trade, but, I don't know how much it advances them in the East. They got fair value, but I don't think much surplus value and they were more than one part away. They need more before they are a contender IMO, but I suppose it might happen with internal improvement.

4298. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: September 01, 2022 at 06:13 PM (#6094076)

I wasn't totally against the Rudy fit for the Wolves, though I was completely blown away by the picks. I'm not crazy about Mitchell, and this is also a lot of draft capital to give up.

Having said that, the Cavs made a much, much better trade than Minnesota and are absolutely better off than the Wolves today *and* the next couple of years. It's not close, IMO (and that's also thinking ANT has a chance to be a great player). Some of that is the ages here - Rudy is 30 and I think the downside of his contract is going to be BAD (I don't completely agree about him getting played off the court in Utah, but in 2 years...) - and Mitchell is now the old guy in Cleve at 25. But I also like Mobley and Garland more than Towns and ANT (mainly I'm infatuated with Mobley's future), plus is it crazy to think that Allen can be more valuable than Rudy sooner rather than later? I defended the LaVert trade before; I would like the Cavs much more if they hadn't use those bullets for him and could use them to find a better fit at the 3.

Of course, all I really care about here is looking at this from the Bulls perspective. The Cavs have clearly separated themselves from the Bulls now in that division. Not that it made any sense for the Bulls to try and beat any of the offers for anyone traded this offseason, but their summer of inactivity keeps looking worse and worse.

4299. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: September 01, 2022 at 06:17 PM (#6094077)

I think the premise of all of these is the same, it's the Pascal's wager on whether a young star develops. You play for them to take a leap to top 5 in the league.

* If Mobley becomes a top 5 player, do you want Garland and Mitchell as sidekicks?
* If Ant becomes a top 5 player, do you want Gobert and Towns as sidekicks?
* If Trae becomes a top 5 player, do you want Murray as one of a few sidekicks?

The first one seems a lot more like a clear yes than the others. Well, I'm all out on Trae, so maybe that's clouding my judgment, a D first backcourt mate is not a bad fit. But I'll take the approach from the Cavs over the Wovles.

Obviously this is very reductionist.

4300. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 01, 2022 at 06:27 PM (#6094079)

It's reductionist, but I think it's the right question to be asking. Or at least, I am asking the question the same way.

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