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Friday, April 15, 2022

2022 NBA Playoffs thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 years of content so we’re in reruns already.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 15, 2022 at 11:59 AM | 4354 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: narratives, nba, off-topic, playoffs

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4301. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: September 01, 2022 at 06:29 PM (#6094080)

Flip

4302. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 07:17 PM (#6094088)

From Twitter :

On court vs off court differential the past 3 seasons between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert:

Donovan Mitchell

19-20: +1.6
20-21: -6.5
21-22: -1.1

Rudy Gobert

19-20: +12.7
20-21: +13.9
21-22: +6.3

4303. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 01, 2022 at 07:43 PM (#6094095)

Rudy Gobert is the undisputed GOAT of random February games in Orlando.

4304. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 01, 2022 at 08:44 PM (#6094115)

I think Gobert is under-rated and Mitchell over-rated, but new context for both should make things more clear.

4305. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 01, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6094123)

Who's got some Fake Bojan Trades for me?

4306. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 01, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6094128)

Bojan is on a 1 year 19.5 million contract.

Is that positive value? Negative value? I'm not really sure I know. He and Clarkson are in the same weird zone where you could see a team paying something or the Jazz paying to get rid of them and it's hard to tell which is more likely.

4307. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: September 01, 2022 at 10:10 PM (#6094129)

I think the premise of all of these is the same, it's the Pascal's wager on whether a young star develops. You play for them to take a leap to top 5 in the league.

* If Mobley becomes a top 5 player, do you want Garland and Mitchell as sidekicks?

Is Mitchell going to want to be a sidekick? He joined a team that while there was no clear alpha (on offense), had won 52 games the prior year. And he hoisted 20 shots a game.

I've always thought that being able to shoot 20 times a game is a skill. Not as valuable as making a high percentage, but a skill. So I am giving him that. But he does not seem to be the kind of guy that is going to think all he has to do is 'fit in' with Mobley and Garland.

4308. spivey Posted: September 01, 2022 at 10:17 PM (#6094131)

I think Bojan is a positive asset but I am not sure it's FRP positive. I think most contenders can find 20 million of salary that's less good at basketball than him.

Frankly if they didn't get a FRP for Beverly, I'm sure Utah is just as motivated into not having any basketball players as much as other teams are. And really, so many of the good teams don't have FRPs to deal.

4309. spivey Posted: September 01, 2022 at 10:19 PM (#6094132)

I think this is a great spot for Mitchell because Mobley doesn't look to likely ever be THE guy on offense, at least not a big time scorer. Early to say that for a guy as young as him, but this team needed a scorer. I think there's really good synergy between their top 4 guys.

4310. rr: over-entitled starf@ck3r Posted: September 02, 2022 at 12:47 AM (#6094145)

Seems like a lot for Mitchell, and Ainge is Ainge.

4311. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:00 AM (#6094146)

I think Bojan is a positive asset but I am not sure it's FRP positive. I think most contenders can find 20 million of salary that's less good at basketball than him.

Does he help a contender tho?

Bucks, no. Sixers, no. Warriors, no. Clippers, no. Boston, no. Grizzlies, maybe. Heat, maybe. Suns, no.

I don't think he would have really been able to play much in the Finals, for instance.

If you're Miami and you are offering Duncan Robinson straight up, how much better does that really make your team? I don't think it's that much of a difference.

4312. aberg Posted: September 02, 2022 at 08:24 AM (#6094157)

My first reaction to this trade was that the track record for teams with two bad perimeter defenders is not great deep in the playoffs. Mobley and Allen are both really good behind the perimeter, so that may make up for it. Still a real concern. I thought Cleveland would go for a big wing if they were going to push in their chips. Either way, it's not hard to see Cleveland getting to the top three in the East as soon as this year, so there's plenty of upside.

4313. spivey Posted: September 02, 2022 at 10:43 AM (#6094169)

Does he help a contender tho?

I think he would absolutely help the Bucks and probably most of those other teams. Great shooter, good tertiary playmaker, big wing who is a negative at defense but not a giant one, and can be reasonable against big wings. I think he played some of the best defense on Luka in that whole series, right? I wouldn't have any big problem with him guarding, say, Jaylen Brown. He's just old and only on a 1 year deal and makes a good amount of money, so trading for him is tricky.

4314. billyshears Posted: September 02, 2022 at 10:54 AM (#6094170)

I tend to think teams significantly overvalue 1st round picks outside the top 10, but that it's also somewhat foolish to give up a generation's worth of draft equity unless (i) it's for a top 10-ish player or (ii) you already have an MVP candidate on your team (see Giannis). Thus I think it's likely that both Utah and Cleveland end up a bit disappointed with this deal.

I think Cleveland will be good, but the fit issues are real so not contender-level good. I suspect Mitchell will be lukewarm on the situation and bolt in 3 years. The '28 swap and '29 pick are a bit scary, but Cleveland does have enough young talent that they're not an empty shell of team by then. I expect that they spend the next 5 years hanging out between 3 - 6 in the east, which isn't a terrible outcome, but probably less than they are hoping for.

As far as Utah is concerned, I don't think there is any coherent, strategic way to build an NBA contender that doesn't involve a lot of lottery luck, so getting a bunch of draft picks for the next 7 years and hoping for some luck is as good a strategy as any. But given where Minnesota and Cleveland look to be picking for the next 5 years or so, they're still starting out with an expected value of blah.

4315. asinwreck Posted: September 02, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6094182)

Boston may want Bogan for offense, as Danilo Gallinari just got diagnosed with a torn ACL.

4316. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 02, 2022 at 12:16 PM (#6094184)

I don't think there is any coherent, strategic way to build an NBA contender that doesn't involve a lot of lottery luck

Or being the Lakers.

4317. Fourth True Outcome Posted: September 02, 2022 at 12:45 PM (#6094192)

Boston may want Bogan for offense, as Danilo Gallinari just got diagnosed with a torn ACL.

I'm sure it's just weird situations and tricky imaging of injured joints, but it's always weird when they initially rule out the ACL tear and then diagnose it a few days later. Too bad this wasn't just the meniscus tear they initially thought it was.

4318. spivey Posted: September 02, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6094194)

As far as Utah is concerned, I don't think there is any coherent, strategic way to build an NBA contender that doesn't involve a lot of lottery luck, so getting a bunch of draft picks for the next 7 years and hoping for some luck is as good a strategy as any. But given where Minnesota and Cleveland look to be picking for the next 5 years or so, they're still starting out with an expected value of blah.

I think Lowe and the Dunc'd On guys have phrased this well - but the best assets you get from trading guys to do a total rebuild are your own draft picks.

I also think that the East could be wide open in 2-3 years. Miami, Milwaukee, Philly, and NJ are all teams that I expect to be worse each year.

4319. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 02, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6094195)

I (unfortunately) saw the clip of Gallo getting hurt which I am NOT going to link, and I was shocked that it was just a meniscus.

I guess people are just more positive about Bojan than I am, which is totally fair. Older players who can still play a bit are really hard to evaluate because they are often matchup specific.

4320. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:23 PM (#6094199)

The Celtics basically have pulled this off. Tatum and Brown with high picks and then hit on enough lower picks for the supporting cast on a similar timeline (the Williamses, Smart).

The more lower firsts you have the better odds that enough of them will hit (the Celtics whiffed quite a few times, what is Guerschon Yabusele up to these days) into a supporting cast.

It happened that the Boston high picks *were* the Brooklyn picks but portfolio wise having a few high picks (expected to be your own) and a crap load of low firsts on the same timeline is a fine place to start. And of course you can package those later to get you over the top.

4321. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:27 PM (#6094200)

It must be so ####### fun to be the point guard for Greece. Most of the time you play in a semiprofessional Moldovan league but every few years you get to send alley oops to Giannis.

4322. jmurph Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:41 PM (#6094202)

I share a lot of the same concerns that most of you all do about the move for Cleveland- that's a small, bad defensive backcourt, can Mitchell really share the ball with that many other guys, this is an all-in move that doesn't necessarily put them in contention, etc.- but in the end I think it's pretty cool they're going for it and building around a group of young guys. It's not that hard to imagine them making a deep run with some luck/bad injury luck elsewhere.

That said, #### Dan Gilbert.

Weird ending to what was a really good Utah team.

4323. spivey Posted: September 02, 2022 at 01:56 PM (#6094204)

I think the thing with Cleveland is, you can make a very credible argument - and I would make this argument - you can likely compete for championships in the next 5 years with their core 4 as your best 4. You can't do it this year or probably even next, but it's easier to find the supporting pieces around what they already have imo. So even though it doesn't make them a contender now, I think it locks up the core guys for a contender.

4324. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 02, 2022 at 02:24 PM (#6094209)

I think the thing with Cleveland is, you can make a very credible argument - and I would make this argument - you can likely compete for championships in the next 5 years with their core 4 as your best 4. You can't do it this year or probably even next, but it's easier to find the supporting pieces around what they already have imo. So even though it doesn't make them a contender now, I think it locks up the core guys for a contender.

Yup, this is where I'm at. 4 all-star guys, even if none of them are All-NBA, is one of the recipes for a contender. It's the 2004 Detroit, 2015 Hawks, 2022 Heat model.

If you're on board with Mobley being an all star level player, then it's easy to see their path to contention.

You also have upside with Mobley and (to a lesser extent) Garland, where if either of them reach All-NBA level, you have a path to being a Finals favorite.

4325. jmurph Posted: September 02, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6094210)

Agree with spivey/tship basically.

I also think Mitchell is really good, for the record. I think he went through a weird overrated/then underrated cycle with Utah's ups and downs, but I'm pretty sure if he's your second best (all around) player, you probably have a really good team.

4326. rr: over-entitled starf@ck3r Posted: September 02, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6094222)

Check out all these Utah Jazz draft picks
2023 first-round pick — own
2023 first-round pick — from HOU, BKN or PHI*
2023 first-round pick — from MIN (unprotected)
2024 first-round pick — owed to OKC
2025 first-round pick — own
2025 first-round pick — from MIN (unprotected)
2025 first-round pick — from CLE (unprotected)
2026 first-round pick — own (swap with MIN**)
2027 first-round pick — own
2027 first-round pick — from MIN (unprotected)
2027 first-round pick — from CLE (unprotected)
2028 first-round pick — own
2029 first-round pick — own
2029 first-round pick — from MIN (unprotected)
2029 first-round pick — from CLE (unprotected)

---

https://fansided.com/2022/09/01/utah-jazz-draft-picks-donovan-mitchell-trade/

4327. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 02, 2022 at 03:32 PM (#6094223)

at some point we are destined for a draft where Utah and OKC just alternate picks.

***

One thing I do want to call out is that acquiring assets is the easy part. Presti and Ainge deserve credit for making the tough decision to rebuild rather than chase dreams, but this phase is the easy part.

4328. rr: over-entitled starf@ck3r Posted: September 02, 2022 at 03:37 PM (#6094225)

I pretty much agree with 4314, but we'll see. The caveat with Cleveland--and maybe this is the way the league will be for awhile--is the lack of a true juggernaut team. As to Utah, this is sort of a "Process" move by Ainge. You can argue that Ainge has already been vindicated in Boston and ofc he will be even more so if Boston wins the title over the next 2-3 years.

But philosophically, from the POV of Minnesota and Cleveland, I agree with the idea that trading in massive FRP draft assets is pretty much something you do to put LeBron James with Anthony Davis and I don't think that Minnesota and Cleveland have that. The caveat is that guys like Mobley and Edwards might improve enough to make it work.

4329. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: September 02, 2022 at 05:13 PM (#6094235)

I think Bojan is a positive asset but I am not sure it's FRP positive. I think most contenders can find 20 million of salary that's less good at basketball than him.

I'm expecting him to be part of a package for Westbrook and one FRP.

4330. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: September 02, 2022 at 05:16 PM (#6094237)

I also think Mitchell is really good, for the record. I think he went through a weird overrated/then underrated cycle with Utah's ups and downs, but I'm pretty sure if he's your second best (all around) player, you probably have a really good team.

Yeah, and I've noticed a lot of non-Jazz fans I talk to really seem to hate him and find him (and basically everyone else on these recent Jazz teams) overrated. I think he's somewhere around 20th best player in the league, and as Lowe pointed out on his most recent ep, has done stuff in the playoffs better than that, but is not nearly consistent enough to really be valued higher. I think the trade made sense for the Cavs and if Mobley comes close to his upside, could easily see them becoming true contenders. Matching or exceeding this package made no sense for the Knicks though, imo. Donovan isn't good enough to make that roster relevant.

4331. GregD Posted: September 02, 2022 at 06:07 PM (#6094239)

But philosophically, from the POV of Minnesota and Cleveland, I agree with the idea that trading in massive FRP draft assets is pretty much something you do to put LeBron James with Anthony Davis and I don't think that Minnesota and Cleveland have that. The caveat is that guys like Mobley and Edwards might improve enough to make it work.

Abstractly, yes. Concretely, what if you can't get one of those guys unless you happen to get lucky in the lottery in the right year? Do you resist going all in to be a 3rd or 4th seed just because it isn't optimal?

I wouldn't like Cleveland's setup were I a marquee market. For Cleveland, I think it's awesome. They're relevant. And they have given themselves a chance to get lucky; they likely won't ever be a favorite for the Finals but they're a team that could have injuries and bounces go their way. That's a lot for a fanbase to root for.

4332. rr: over-entitled starf@ck3r Posted: September 02, 2022 at 06:27 PM (#6094240)

Abstractly, yes. Concretely, what if you can't get one of those guys unless you happen to get lucky in the lottery in the right year? Do you resist going all in to be a 3rd or 4th seed just because it isn't optimal?

I wouldn't like Cleveland's setup were I a marquee market. For Cleveland, I think it's awesome. They're relevant. And they have given themselves a chance to get lucky; they likely won't ever be a favorite for the Finals but they're a team that could have injuries and bounces go their way. That's a lot for a fanbase to root for.

---

These are legit points, and one of my takeaways from this thread has been more appreciation of good teams that don't win it and the value that has to a fanbase (the example I use is the Conley/Gasol teams in Memphis).

So, I am not saying that these moves were bad for Minnesota or Cleveland--we obviously don't know yet. But I am saying that I think it might have been better organizationally to try to take that step another way, instead of giving up that much draft capital (seems to be the new word for FRPs) for guys like Gobert and Mitchell.

4333. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 02, 2022 at 09:05 PM (#6094262)

Abstractly, yes. Concretely, what if you can't get one of those guys unless you happen to get lucky in the lottery in the right year? Do you resist going all in to be a 3rd or 4th seed just because it isn't optimal?

There's a star that comes available pretty much every year.

Now, to be clear, it's rare that a star will be a perfect fit on your team, and that the age will match up correctly with the rest of your team, but there almost always is a star available.

Last year there was Harden, year before that ... was Harden, this year there will likely be Lillard.

I think an interesting foil to all these teams making win-now moves (Minnesota, Atlanta, Cleveland) is Memphis. Memphis was actually the kind of team that could benefit from an all-in trade like this, where they could turn a ton of depth and draft capital into another star to pair with Ja. They decided to sit this market out, and I think that was probably the right decision.

4334. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: September 05, 2022 at 10:40 AM (#6094566)

draft capital (seems to be the new word for FRPs)

I don't think that's particularly new. But maybe the usage has become more prevalent because of the increase in pick swaps.

4335. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: September 05, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6094575)

Help a dummy out. I'm trying to understand the thinking behind including pick swaps in trades. It's not immediately clear to me how "I give you Unknown Quantity A, and you give me Unknown Quantity B" benefits either party.

My first guess is it feels like a double-or-nothing strategy. If the on-court talent you get in the trade works out, you win twice: you're better this year, and still have the chance of a high pick in that year you pick-swapped. This also doubles potential losses; if you got worse, oops, your future pick is now tied to a team that just won 55 games and went to the conference finals.

Do I understand this right? If so I think the reason I didn't get it is that I'm not a double-or-nothing person. That's not an option that would occur to me in the decision-making process, so I don't think to look for it in the decision-making of others.

4336. PJ Martinez Posted: September 05, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6094577)

Teams don't swap picks, exactly; Team A grants Team B the right to swap picks if it's advantageous to Team B. If it's not, Team B just keeps its pick. So there's no risk for Team B — sometimes it turns out great for them, and sometimes nothing happens. Team A does it because they're eager to acquire a star player, and all the risk is on their side.

4337. An Athletic in Powderhorn, Silly Posted: September 05, 2022 at 12:37 PM (#6094578)

I should try to watch more Eastern Conference games this year. I saw a handful of Cavs games early in the year, before the injures hit. I liked them a lot. They were still fitting the pieces together, but they were good pieces. I mentally bookmarked them as a team that would be dangerous next year. Then they got hurt, stopped winning, and kind of fell off my radar.

This seems like a Harden/Paul 2018 move of always having a solid initiator on the floor, but not unlocking an extra level when Mitchell and Garland are on the court together. That did produce a championship-level team. That model works. Curious how this is going to go.

4338. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: September 05, 2022 at 04:34 PM (#6094602)

Teams don't swap picks, exactly; Team A grants Team B the right to swap picks if it's advantageous to Team B. If it's not, Team B just keeps its pick. So there's no risk for Team B — sometimes it turns out great for them, and sometimes nothing happens. Team A does it because they're eager to acquire a star player, and all the risk is on their side.

yup. it would be more accurate to say "swap rights" instead of "pick swaps", but that verbage hasn't exactly caught on.

4339. aberg Posted: September 06, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6094737)

Memphis was actually the kind of team that could benefit from an all-in trade like this

My impression is that Memphis sees itself as good enough already to be very patient with this sort of move. Their roster, like Cleveland's, is desperate for a big wing who can shoot and defend. Not sure what the path is, but if someone like George, Middleton, or even Mikal Bridges became available in the next 2 years, that would be a great fit.

4340. sardonic Posted: September 06, 2022 at 11:25 AM (#6094742)

Andrew Wiggins is entering the last year of his contract. Not sure how/if Memphis could free up the space to sign him, but if they had him instead of Dillon Brooks in a Ja-Bane-Wiggins-JJJ-whoever lineup they'd be deadly.

4341. aberg Posted: September 06, 2022 at 11:52 AM (#6094749)

Andrew Wiggins is entering the last year of his contract. Not sure how/if Memphis could free up the space to sign him, but if they had him instead of Dillon Brooks in a Ja-Bane-Wiggins-JJJ-whoever lineup they'd be deadly.

I'm never going to say anything nice about Wiggins, but true.

4342. DCA Posted: September 06, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6094752)

With Adams, Brooks, and Danny Green all coming off the books next year, Memphis will have a lot of room under the cap, even with Ja's deal kicking in. They can probably make max space or close to it by moving Tyus Jones, and they should be able to get assets back for him. If the Grizz decide to do that, they should be able to give Wiggins more than GSW are willing to pay, and I think it would be a desirable destination.

The other option is a sign-and-trade with the enemy. I can see a mix of pieces that would make sense on-court and on-balance-sheet for both sides, but do they want to help each other out?

4343. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 06, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6094759)

My impression is that Memphis sees itself as good enough already to be very patient with this sort of move. Their roster, like Cleveland's, is desperate for a big wing who can shoot and defend. Not sure what the path is, but if someone like George, Middleton, or even Mikal Bridges became available in the next 2 years, that would be a great fit.

I mean, Kevin Durant was available this offseason and was a great fit.

4344. sardonic Posted: September 06, 2022 at 01:35 PM (#6094765)

I wonder if the Cavs could open up enough room once LaVert's contract is off the books and potentially getting off of Isaac Okoro to sign Wiggins.

4345. aberg Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:11 PM (#6094801)

I mean, Kevin Durant was available this offseason and was a great fit.

Yeah, it's not that hard to imagine why teams weren't that excited about getting Durant this offseason.

4346. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:20 PM (#6094804)

Yeah, it's not that hard to imagine why teams weren't that excited about getting Durant this offseason.

que?

unless you're implying that durant wasn't ever actually available (which is possible/likely), it's very hard (for me at least) to understand why teams weren't more excited for the chance to get him this offseason.

4347. aberg Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:21 PM (#6094805)

unless you're implying that durant wasn't ever actually available (which is possible/likely), it's very hard (for me at least) to understand why teams weren't more excited for the chance to get him this offseason.

I'm referring to the flakiness and internal conflict that he created in Brooklyn. He worked so hard to undermine his front office. I get why another front office would shy away from that experience.

4348. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6094810)

Are... are Pat Bev and Westbrook really going to play together?

I mean there's time left, but seems real quiet on the Westbrook trade front.

Harrell on the vet min seems like a good flyer for the Sixers. Will come in pretty handy for the games Embiid misses.

4349. GregD Posted: September 06, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6094813)

I mean there's time left, but seems real quiet on the Westbrook trade front.

I assume--based on nothing--that the Lakers and Pacers are just in a blinking match over how many assets the Lakers will have to give up for the Pacers to take and then waive Westbrook. But you're right. It could be that nothing happens.

4350. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 06, 2022 at 05:28 PM (#6094823)

Are... are Pat Bev and Westbrook really going to play together?

That is the dream. It might not happen, but for now, we can all hope.

4351. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: September 06, 2022 at 05:28 PM (#6094824)

Harrell on the vet min seems like a good flyer for the Sixers. Will come in pretty handy for the games Embiid misses.

Kinda hate this move? The Sixers have Bassey and Paul Reed already and Doc comes up with excuses to not play them.

I mean there's time left, but seems real quiet on the Westbrook trade front.
I assume--based on nothing--that the Lakers and Pacers are just in a blinking match over how many assets the Lakers will have to give up for the Pacers to take and then waive Westbrook. But you're right. It could be that nothing happens.

This is kind of my read as well. There's no real urgency to do a deal before the start of the season. This could be the rare November trade.

4352. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: September 06, 2022 at 05:31 PM (#6094825)

I'd bet on the Lakers to cave first, if that's the case. One, just to avoid an internal civil war. But also, it's just silly to waste another year of LeBron.

Regardless, I said I'd post a new thread a month ago, so here we go...

4353. asinwreck Posted: September 07, 2022 at 09:34 AM (#6094978)

4354. asinwreck Posted: September 07, 2022 at 09:37 AM (#6094979)

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