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Thursday, April 13, 2023

2023 NBA Playoffs Thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 teams in the play-in round.

Hombre Brotani Posted: April 13, 2023 at 04:37 PM | 2656 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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1. smileyy Posted: April 13, 2023 at 04:45 PM (#6123920)

Love the intro

2. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 13, 2023 at 04:47 PM (#6123922)

The Raptors should have gone into firesale mode after Leonard bolted. Now they have a ton of contracts where they need to decide and won't get as much if they sell. They are well and truly in purgatory.

The Hawks kind of remind me of discount Timberwolves. Not quite the drama, not quite as ridiculous a trade last offseason, just not as spectacularly Wolves as the Wolves are. To be fair that is a really high bar.

3. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 13, 2023 at 06:50 PM (#6123930)

The Raptors should have gone into firesale mode after Leonard bolted.

I dunno. They won 53 games in 2020, and 48 games in 2022. FVV, OG, Siakam, Trent, and Barnes is a really good five. They just don't have that court-bending star like Kawhi was, but they were a very good team two of the last three years. I think it's reasonable to have thought that, in 2020, they had something to build on.

4. Paul D(uda) Posted: April 13, 2023 at 09:49 PM (#6123945)

I think there's definitely a world where the Raps beat Boston in 2020 and make it back to the conference finals. Blowing that up would have been premature (generally I think blowing up any champ is a bad idea, no matter whose left)

5. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:53 AM (#6123956)

You know, technically the playoffs have not actually started yet, although the regular season has ended, so we're in some sort of thread limbo.

6. smileyy Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:16 AM (#6123958)

It deeply bothers me that all of these stats are just disappearing into the void.

7. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 02:06 AM (#6123960)

You know, technically the playoffs have not actually started yet, although the regular season has ended, so we're in some sort of thread limbo.

To me, this indicates just how incredibly successful the play-in tournament has been. The NBA took a risk, and it has paid off tremendously. The regular season has not been de-emphasized, if anything the importance of finishing 6 has elevated it. The play-in largely fixed a lot of tanking issues. The games have been tremendously fun. The best part is that while the stakes are high, and variable, you don't really lose out on any good teams.

8. spivey Posted: April 14, 2023 at 08:59 AM (#6123965)

I also don't have a problem with Toronto keeping it together. A lot of those guys had just won a championship. Yeah they probably weren't going to be a top tier title contender again, but Siakam and FVV have been all-star/fringe all-NBA type guys by the advanced stats. If we're at the point where we're saying teams that are winning like 50 games a year with a core that just won a championship, so the fans probably adore them and the team, then I'm out.

Now, I think they should have pivoted this year, if the offers were there. FVV and Siakam are gonna make a lot of money on their next contracts and their next contracts will be for the start of the downside of their careers.

9. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:16 AM (#6123967)

I don't think they were championship contenders without Leonard. Following Branch Rickey's advice of a year too early, I think that was the ideal time. You have the good vibes from winning it all and a built-in excuse when Leonard split. The gamble of signing him worked out and the value of your players was really high.

I get the counter-argument though, but I think they should have done something. Spend some resources and try for another bid with that core, or trade out some of the pieces for an upgrade. There were plenty of paths they could follow without a full tear down. Depending on what you could get, I am not even sure a full tear-down was called for, but they basically did nothing.

And sure, I get it the first year. But with each year it is clearer and clearer that their core is not sufficient. Every year I think the argument for a change got stronger and still not much.

Now maybe I am forgetting the moves they did make. I have not followed them super closely (and I have work to do this morning - annoyingly), but every year I have sort of expected them to make some moves to reconfigure their roster and yet here they are. And I really don't like their current spot. Too many expensive players that they don't want to let go for no return, but who don't fit together well enough.

Nut Masai is only about a billion times more basketball savvy than I am, so if I had to pick who to listen to, obviously him before me.

10. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6123968)

I agree with spivey and Mouse. :)
That is to say -- I think it's ok to have blown it up and okay to keep it together, depending on what the team's goals are - and there are different answers to that last question which are totally reasonable. By this season, though, the writing was more than on the wall and it's past time to pivot. It has been sort of a frog in the slowly boiling pot scenario -- not that any of what has happened is a surprise, but I get why they didn't do specific moves that would have helped them retool. I just don't get why they didn't do much of anything.

11. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:29 AM (#6123969)

Heaven help me I think I am going to be on the Knicks in the playoffs.

12. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:40 AM (#6123972)

I think that the arguments for keeping it together or blowing it up in Toronto were pretty well balanced. It just feels like they've decided to build a really good team minus a superstar and then go superstar hunting. It worked once!

13. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:48 AM (#6123973)

My preferred ordering for the playoffs is:

OBVIOUSLY

Wovles

WOULD BE DELIGHTED

KANGZ
Cleveland
Denver
Nets

OK!

Bucks
Golden State
Chicago
Philly

MEH

Atlanta
Grizzlies
Knicks
Heat
LAC

UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES

Phoenix
Thunder *
Boston
LAL

--

* They'd be in WOULD BE DELIGHTED if they weren't the former Sonics

14. Russlan is not Russian Posted: April 14, 2023 at 10:52 AM (#6123976)

The Raptors should have gone into firesale mode after Leonard bolted. Now they have a ton of contracts where they need to decide and won't get as much if they sell. They are well and truly in purgatory.

As a Canadian with perhaps a better understanding of how the market feels about the team, I think that would have absolutely been the wrong thing to do at the time. The goodwill the team garnered at the team and the niche that the Raptors have carved out in the Canadian sports landscape needs to be considered. To move directly into a "Process" right after winning the title would not have gone over well IMHO.

15. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: April 14, 2023 at 10:53 AM (#6123977)

As a Pistons fan, I ask you, "What are these things you call 'playoffs'...?"

16. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:13 AM (#6123981)

ranking

BIASED: Hawks

See, how can you have Cleveland - blessed by lottery luck a thousand times over, owned by a thumb - ranked ahead of Atlanta? Poor, sad Atlanta, loved by few, repeatedly cursed (sometimes by its own management and ownership)?

Oh, cool!: KANGZ

I didn't see it coming; that's neat. Their fans deserve succor.

Oh, cool: Nuggets, Thunder, Wolves

Denver winning would require a lot of people to reevaluate what's needed to win, which would be interesting. Thunder - hate the origin story, but love the scrappiness of these guys. Wolves ... I'd love to have them a ring up but they're kind of exhausting.

Would be a tier or two higher if all that stuff about Ja hadn't come out: Griz
I'll take it: Bucks
Mixed feelings: Nets, Cavs, Bucks, Knicks, Clippers
Sigh: Warriors, Sixers, Heat, Suns
Aren't we tired of this yet?: Celtics, Lakers

17. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:14 AM (#6123982)

14 - I don't think going "Process" would have made sense. But they could have done more than they did.

18. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:21 AM (#6123983)

I get why they didn't do specific moves that would have helped them retool. I just don't get why they didn't do much of anything.

Yeah. This.

As an aside I can't tell if my calling the Hawks the Discount Wolves was missed, or ignored because there are no Hawks fans, it was a ridiculous statement, it was spot on, or some combination.

Oh well, not every take gets a response. ;)

19. spivey Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:27 AM (#6123984)

14 - I don't think going "Process" would have made sense. But they could have done more than they did.

True. But I think not keeping Lowry was the correct decision. And trading Powell for Trent I think was probably too. I'd have to look back at it but I don't know if there was specific thing other than the amorphous road not traveled. There haven't been many FAs worth anything, I don't know they had much cap space anyways, and the cost for a lot of the stars has really been prohibitive, imo. Those stars who were dealt also mostly went to preferred destinations for the huge bounty, so it's hard for me to say there was a specific deal they should have done. If they could have gotten Durant for Barnes and just Barnes, that's one thing. But it's not clear to me that was really out there.

20. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:28 AM (#6123985)

I missed it!

I don't necessarily agree outside of your specific comparison but ... yeah, that's probably about right :)

21. DCA Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:32 AM (#6123987)

Ranking

Long-term rooting interest: Warriors

If my team can't win, I want quality to be rewarded: Nuggets, Bucks, Celtics

Not quite as sold on quality but plucky and I like them: Cavs, Knicks, Kings

They hit the quality bar but don't excite me: Clippers, Suns, Sixers

Unobjectionable but not good enough: Wovles/OKC, Heat/Bulls, Hawks, Nets

Dislike: Lakers

Hate: Grizz

22. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:51 AM (#6123989)

My Team: Wolves (Sigh)

Teams I kind of like for a variety of reasons: Cavs, Bucks, Suns, Bulls

Teams I dislike for a variety of reasons: Sixers, Heat, Knicks, OKC (Only for the play in though)

Teams I don't have a strong opinion about: Nuggets, Clippers, Nets, Kings, Hawks, Grizz

No Dynasty but my own team, so BOOO!: Warriors, Lakers, Celtics

23. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:56 AM (#6123991)

I don't think that the Raptors would have benefitted from a total tear down.

I do think that not trading FVV for value if that was out there was a mistake. Probably also a mistake to not trade OG.

24. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:58 AM (#6123992)

The one move I wonder about, I think, would have been a sign & trade with Philly for Jimmy Butler. A first round pick traded hands but for the most part, 4 teams traded flotsam to make the money work in Miami. The Raptors had more to offer in a sign and trade, I think.

I think the Raps did ok. They probably should have prioritized shooting a bit more. Maybe should have signed a Bogdonovich or something.

25. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:03 PM (#6123994)

My team: Currently the Blazers, but I root for players in the NBA
Would be thrilled to see win: Kings
Would be ok if they won: Sixers, Knicks, Grizz
Whatever: Everyone Else.
Do Not Want: Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Suns

The fun part about gambling is you can force your rooting interest to change at the drop of a hat

26. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:12 PM (#6123995)

Long-term rooting interests: Lakers, Warriors (although feel more tepid about both options than I have in the past)

If those teams can't win, good teams that I agree with: Sixers, Cavs, Bucks

Not quite as sold on quality but fun story: Knicks, Kings, Denver

Good teams, not actively objectionable, but still would prefer they not win: Suns

Not good enough: Wolves/OKC, Heat/Bulls, Hawks, Nets, Brooklyn

Dislike: Grizzlies, Celtics, Clippers

27. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6123996)

If those teams can't win, good teams that I agree with: Sixers
Would be ok if they won: Sixers
Teams I dislike for a variety of reasons: Sixers
They hit the quality bar but don't excite me: Sixers
Sigh: Sixers
OK! Philly

i hope you all know that, if the sixers win the title this year (they won't), you will ####### despise them by the time it happens. our path to the title is shooting 45 FTs per game, and FULL ####### 57i66135 shitting on everyone and everything in our way. you do not want this smoke.

28. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6123997)

As an aside I can't tell if my calling the Hawks the Discount Wolves was missed, or ignored because there are no Hawks fans, it was a ridiculous statement, it was spot on, or some combination.

Let's look at the tape:

Trae: 26.2 PPG, 10.2 APG, 3 coaches in 5 seasons; fatal flaw: defense, hero ball tendencies
KAT: 23.0 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 4 coaches played for in 8 seasons; fatal flaw: defense, bone-headedness

I think the Hawks have better talent overall than the Wolves, it just hasn't gelled. Whether Snyder can get more out of the roster is anyone's guess.

Do Not Want: Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Suns

???

29. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6123998)

i didn't take discount wolves to mean less talented, just less wolves-y

30. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:43 PM (#6123999)

Rooting for: Lakers
Do Not Want: Anyone else

I keep it simple. If it's not my team, I just want a good game. There are certain non-Laker players I'd be very happy to see do well.

31. spivey Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6124000)

Looks like Dallas is fined $750k for the tank. I mean, I don't think they should have been punished, so I think this very soft slap on the wrist is correct.

32. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:50 PM (#6124001)

same!
fine isn't for the tank, it's for being sloppy about it

33. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:53 PM (#6124002)

They were already fined 500K for tanking for Luka.

34. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6124003)

i didn't take discount wolves to mean less talented, just less wolves-y

Correct. It is an insult and a compliment at the same time.

35. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:01 PM (#6124005)

taken as such, both deserved

36. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:01 PM (#6124006)

I'm kind of with SJ, I'm more a fan of players than teams. Would love to see Jokic, Giannis, Devin Booker, or Embiid hoisting the LOB, or even LeBron winning another. Teams-wise, would be cool to see Cleveland or Sacramento make a run as long-shots, and I do like the Grizzlies, Suns, and Nuggets (great uniforms).

37. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:19 PM (#6124010)

Not good enough: Wolves/OKC, Heat/Bulls, Hawks, Nets, Brooklyn

So bad they get two entries on the list!

38. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:23 PM (#6124011)

So bad they get two entries on the list!

Neither the Kyrie/KD version nor the Bridges/Dinwiddie nets are good enough!

Teams-wise, would be cool to see Cleveland or Sacramento make a run as long-shots, and I do like the Grizzlies, Suns, and Nuggets (great uniforms).

I don't think Cleveland is a longshot. They're like the second or third most likely team to come out of the East.

39. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6124012)

I think 4th: Celtics, Bucks, and Sixers.

40. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:31 PM (#6124013)

how much of the problems with denver's bench is the players (they're not good) versus how malone uses them?

41. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 01:54 PM (#6124016)

Cleveland is a net rating darling. Their top 4 guys have a net rating of 8.91 together. That's with giving up a really high opponent 3p%--39%.

If you assume 3p opponent percentage is a true random walk, you could make a case for Cleveland being the favorite in the East. They've had a ton of injuries and been on the bad side of 3p variance so far this season.

If you plug in Dean Wade as the 5th beatle, they have a +21 net rating in a small sample size.

42. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 02:00 PM (#6124017)

how much of the problems with denver's bench is the players (they're not good) versus how malone uses them?

Their most frequently used lineup without Jokic is Green, Murray Brown, Nnaji and Braun or Hyland.

Take out the best player out of every team, would this lineup beat any of the other lineups in the top 6 of either conference besides the Nets?

I think the answer is no. The Suns are not deep either, but their aren't going to be many minutes where 2 of their top 4 aren't going to be on the floor.

43. DCA Posted: April 14, 2023 at 03:09 PM (#6124025)

I was just thinking of how I might GM the Nuggets, and I think the only non-luck-dependent path forward is to get short-term value for Porter. One possibility:

To IND: MPJ

To DEN: Hield, McConnell, Theis (into the Morris TPE), Duarte

Why Indy would do it. They need to consolidate into good players to supplement the Haliburton/Turner core. Porter complements those two, is on the same timeline, and is signed long-term.

Why Denver would do it. Hield is probably as good as Porter for 2023-24, and the other three are a huge upgrade to the second unit.

44. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: April 14, 2023 at 03:55 PM (#6124035)

i do not do that as denver, dca.
--
i don't watch denver often (iirc, due to their rsn situation, very few people do!) but iirc, malone does a lot of first team / second team stuff (which is implied by 42) and they are a team with a STEEP dropoff between their top 5 and their 6th best guy (brown). by dpm, the steepest in the league, they, i'd think, desperately need to stagger more and come up a better or different way of handling when jokic is off the floor.
do you try to run a similar system (by having a similar kind of player ... not that there really is one available as a bench guy)? that'd be my inclination if possible but very few people make that possible. (related: bryant made ZERO sense for them - i thought they should deal with NYK for hartenstein who can do a skotch of what jokic does on o, is a very good defender, and is being totally wasted on the knicks as he's a bad fit for thibs likes from centers plus nyk has a bunch of other solid centers. that said, denver tried hartenstein before and malone didn't trust him.)
part of why i ask this is that i've heard a few talking heads talk about how malone doesn't trust his bench and it might be contributing to their poor performance and i'm like, i dunno, they could just be bad.

45. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 04:06 PM (#6124036)

I am not sure you want to trade one of your stars for depth, no matter how good the depth coming back.

I know they can't just fill a bench with G League players, but their bench is terrible, and their g league team finished 14th in their conference and is bad. I would start improving by getting better scouts. For the most part, they have punted on 2nd round picks.

In 2020, they picked Zeke Nnaji at 22 and passed on Quickley, Pritchard and Bane in the first round after him. A year later, Bones Hyland over Herb Jones and Cam Thomas. This year, Braun may turn out to be a rotation guy, but Walker Kessler might make the all defensive team as a rookie. And I think Jaden Hardy was a steal for Dallas.

Their two way player this year is Jack White. Jack White is absolutely terrible. I guess they decided to get an old Australian to be a 3&D guy, even though he was an under 30 percent 3 point shooter in college? The Warriors got good production from Jerome And Lamb, the Spurs got good minutes from their two way guys.

The Nuggets should be commended for seeing something in Jokic which no one else did. The Gordon deal was very good, and grabbing Murray at #7 was great as well, but they have not made a ton of great roster moves otherwise. (Porter fell to them because of injuries) It is hard to correct that in one off season.

46. billyshears Posted: April 14, 2023 at 04:28 PM (#6124038)

I think the Raptors probably hoped that Siakam would max out just a smidge better than he is (may have been unreasonable) and that Barnes would make a big second year leap. I generally think maintaining a good team and hoping for some positive variance is a better strategy to becoming a contender than tearing things down and crossing your fingers that you win the lottery in the right year.

47. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 04:36 PM (#6124041)

Barnes still may make the leap, his per 100 possession numbers were almost identical to his rookie year. It is all about his jumper. His form isn't bad, moving from 29% to 34% would be huge.

48. smileyy Posted: April 14, 2023 at 04:55 PM (#6124044)

During the OKC/Pels play-in game, I saw the graphic that OKC has..14? 15? 1st rounders over the next 5 years? Maybe this is premature, but given their current lineup, what gaps would you try to fill through trades with those picks?

49. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 05:08 PM (#6124046)

I don't know if they can get superstar players young enough to fit on their timeline.

Here are the picks they own, first rounders only

2023 Thunder (Swap With Clippers PG Trade)
2024 Thunder, Clippers (PG Trade), Rockets (Westbrook, top 4 protected), Jazz (Favors trade, top 10 for 3 years, top 8 protected for 1)
2025 Thunder (swap between Houston (Protected top-10) or Clippers), Sixers (Danny Green top 4 protected), Heat (lottery protected, unprotected if it doesn't convey)
2026 Thunder, Rockets (Westbrook, top 4 protected), Clippers (unprotected)
2027 Thunder, Denver (Jamychal Green trade, Top-5 protected in 2027, 2028 and 2029)

50. DCA Posted: April 14, 2023 at 05:13 PM (#6124049)

What I'd like to see the Raptors do. Not gonna happen but I think it would work.

(1) Let FVV and Trent walk. Yes it was a mistake not to trade them at the deadline. But it'll be another mistake to pay them what they are likely to command.
(2) Trade Siakam + OPJ to the Hawks for Dejounte + Collins. I think Siakam gives the Hawks something they need that Collins isn't able to, and that Dejounte isn't able to be fully actualized with Trae around. I think it is a good redistribution for the Raptors as well.
(3) This leaves, by my calculation on fanspo, $27m in cap room to go shopping, with more that can be easily offloaded if needed (Flynn, Young, etc). Some of that will have to go toward Poeltl, but it's still enough to grab one or maybe two guys above the MLE (and another at the MLE) in addition to filling out the roster with minimum dudes. Say Josh Hart and Bruce Brown for $25m combined.

Murray/Anunoby/Barnes/Collins/Poeltl
Brown/Hart/Boucher/Precious/Young
Filler

51. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 05:38 PM (#6124050)

If I am Toronto, I would try to run it back and add as many shooters as I can. Toronto was 28th in three point shooting, ahead of only Charlotte and Houston.

52. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: April 14, 2023 at 05:45 PM (#6124051)

[45] Hyland was way better value than the typical 26th pick. You can always find some hits but far more misses.

You want to go back in time and draft Leandro Bolmaro instead of Zeke Nnaji? Because that's who was actually drafted one pick later. Most late 1s don't pan out.

[50] It's probably bad that I am looking at that roster and can't figure out if you're trying to tank or not. Kidding, but only kind of. That's not a good team.

53. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: April 14, 2023 at 06:50 PM (#6124053)

[Their two way player this year is Jack White. Jack White is absolutely terrible. I guess they decided to get an old Australian to be a 3&D guy, even though he was an under 30 percent 3 point shooter in college?

I couldn’t believe this was the same Jack White who only started 10 college games in four years and was like the 6th best player on the Zion Williamson Duke team, but it sure is. They should spend his money on Jack White from the White Stripes, it would be better spent.

54. DCA Posted: April 14, 2023 at 07:06 PM (#6124054)

It's probably bad that I am looking at that roster and can't figure out if you're trying to tank or not. Kidding, but only kind of. That's not a good team.

It could be good. Or not. Kind of like this year's Raptors.

I think it is basically maintaining a team that is good enough to be a contender if you can find that one star to add to it (including subtracting the accquisition cost), while getting younger and more upsidey. It's probably time to move on from Siakam and FVV as your #2/3 guys if you aren't going to find that #1 guy, and I don't think there are any #1's to be had right now. I'd rather have Murray/Collins going forward, especially if 2023-24 appears to be another spin-the-wheels year rather than a serious push.

55. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: April 14, 2023 at 07:20 PM (#6124055)

Nuggets are one short of a Seven Nation Army (Serbia, Slovenia, USA, Canada, Australia, and if you can guess which Nugget was born in Italy without looking, I'll be impressed).

56. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 07:23 PM (#6124057)

Nuggets are one short of a Seven Nation Army

Maybe they should have signed Jack White.

57. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 07:33 PM (#6124058)

The Bulls are determined to dig themselves another massive deficit to climb out of.

58. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 07:50 PM (#6124059)

Looks like Dallas is fined $750k for the tank. I mean, I don't think they should have been punished, so I think this very soft slap on the wrist is correct.

I assume the fines for Portland and Houston are coming any second.

59. asinwreck Posted: April 14, 2023 at 08:47 PM (#6124070)

The funniest thing about this Heat-Bulls game is Alex Caruso getting his season high in points midway through the third quarter.

60. The Original SJ Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:00 PM (#6124072)

Blow up this heat team. This looks like a team which has run its course.

61. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:07 PM (#6124073)

I bet Jimmy would be cool with a return to Philly now. Didn't Bam used to be good?

62. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:32 PM (#6124080)

... never mind.

63. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:38 PM (#6124081)

Blow up this heat team. This looks like a team which has run its course.

W/r/t this and the rhetoric about the Raptors earlier:

Like, blowing it up is just not how teams win championships historically. The model for winning championships is find/sign/develop a top 5 NBA player, draft well for a few years in a row, and fill in with veteran role players. Maaaybe 1 championship in the last 20 years was won by a team that blew it up.

64. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: April 14, 2023 at 09:38 PM (#6124082)

Adebayo is good, but kind of frustrating on offense, where he had that one killer series against Boston, but hasn’t really improved on that end.

65. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: April 14, 2023 at 10:30 PM (#6124095)

Ja Morant is suing a teenager. Not just any teenager: The very teenager he punched in the face at the climax of a pickup basketball game held in Morant's driveway back in July. Morant and the teen agree on that basic set of facts—that a pickup basketball game held at Morant's house ended when Morant punched a teenager in the face—but disagree on who, precisely, is to blame for this escalation. The teenager sued Morant, and now Morant has countersued, accusing the teen of embellishing his retelling of the encounter and lying about his own role in it, and arguing that those lies and embellishments have damaged Morant's reputation and potentially his future earnings.

66. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: April 14, 2023 at 10:44 PM (#6124096)

Gobert just never looks comfortable in his skin.

67. If on a winter's night a father of a newborn baby Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:07 PM (#6124098)

Zero champions in the last 20 years blew up their prior roster to build the championship core. If the current iteration of the Celtics manage to win it all, they would be the first in the modern era—and I, having watched this home-grown core of talented, smart, high-character players develop together over the years, will be insufferably happy.

68. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:26 PM (#6124100)

Wolves double-digit lead in the second half. We got this in the bag!

69. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:27 PM (#6124101)

Zero champions in the last 20 years blew up their prior roster to build the championship core.

Other than the Lakers?

70. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 14, 2023 at 11:30 PM (#6124103)

And for the record, the argument is that the Raptors should have done something and not sat after it was evident with the loss of Leonard that their core was insufficient.

71. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:14 AM (#6124110)

Other than the Lakers?

The better example is probably the 2016 Cavs. They eventually tanked in something like 3 drafts, drafted Kyrie, traded for Love and signed LeBron. None of it works if LeBron wasn't born a hundred miles away, but it is a reasonable example of a team that tanked to a championship.

The 2020 Lakers are not a great example, IMO, because they never tanked (by which I mean intentionally traded present for future). They were just a bad team. The 2014 team that finished 27-55 still had Nash, Kobe and Pau on the roster, they just all got hurt. They kept trying to bring in guys--2015 was the ill-fated Jeremy Lin year. They traded for Lou Williams in 2016.

72. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:14 AM (#6124111)

Other than the Lakers?

Was there really a core, though? Between 2014 and 2019, the Lakers averaged less than 30 wins. There was young talent there, but teams that bad don't really have cores to blow up.

73. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 15, 2023 at 09:27 AM (#6124115)

We can parse the exact meaning of 'tear down', 'tank', or whatever, all we want, but the Lakers championship team was absolutely NOT a "home-grown core of talented, smart, high-character players develop together over the years". Instead, they took the team they had and "blew up their prior roster to build the championship core."

74. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 15, 2023 at 09:28 AM (#6124116)

And yes, I think there are other examples - like the 2016 Cavs.

75. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 15, 2023 at 10:52 AM (#6124123)

We can parse the exact meaning of 'tear down', 'tank', or whatever, all we want, but the Lakers championship team was absolutely NOT a "home-grown core of talented, smart, high-character players develop together over the years". Instead, they took the team they had and "blew up their prior roster to build the championship core."

I think you misread some of the prior posts, as having a "home-grown core of talented, smart, high-character players develop together over the years" was proffered as an example of a team that DID "blow up their prior roster to build the championship core." Boston traded away Pierce and Garnett so they could start over. The Lakers didn't do anything of the sort.

76. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: April 15, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6124132)

How many teams are on this path with their current team, where they tore down a solid team through trades to tank? Let's see:

Definitely:
Boston (Garnett/Pierce)
Philly (Iguodala/Jrue)
Orlando (Vucevic/Gordon)
Memphis (Conley/Gasol)
OKC (Westbrook/George)
Utah (Mitchell/Gobert)
Houston (Harden)

Maybe:
Knicks (Porzingis, but he was disgruntled)
New Orleans (Davis, but he forced a trade)
Nets (not clear they tore down, more Kyrie and KD wanted to leave, and they got players back in both trades)
Indiana (Sabonis, but didn't go full tank)
San Antonio (kind of gradual, with Leonard, Aldridge, DeRozan, Murray)

So that's like 20-40% of the league whose current team is the short- or long-term result of pursuing this strategy. I'm not counting teams that were bad and decided not to try to get good, just teams that had something resembling a playoff caliber core and chose to get worse from there. Boston, Philly, and Memphis have reached the "good" part of the curve, we'll see if they get over the hump, OKC is a couple years behind them, Houston is still way in the tank, Utah and Orlando both exceeded expectations this year but probably still early on.

By the way, I was wrong about Jalen Green being a poor draft pick. He's more than proven his worth as a tank commander these last couple years. Arguably the MVP of the league if you factor in his impact on the Rockets getting Wemby or Scoot.

77. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:02 PM (#6124135)

We can parse the exact meaning of 'tear down', 'tank', or whatever, all we want, but the Lakers championship team was absolutely NOT a "home-grown core of talented, smart, high-character players develop together over the years". Instead, they took the team they had and "blew up their prior roster to build the championship core."

There is no reasonable definition of tanking that includes "trading guys for a top 5 player".

78. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6124136)

I'm not going to do a full ranking of teams like you all did (though I enjoyed reading them), but after the obvious (Celtics), I dislike all the east teams (I would like Cleveland if not for Gilbert). Overall the Sixers and Heat are tied at the bottom, just below Memphis, the Lakers, death, famine, and destruction.

But make your picks cowards!

East:
Bucks over Heat in 5
Celtics over Hawks in 5
Sixers over Nets in 4
Cavs over Knicks in 5

Bucks over Cavs in 5
Celtics over Sixers in 7

Bucks over Celtics in 6

West:
Nuggets over Wolves in 5
Lakers over Grizz in 6
Kings over Warriors in 5
Suns over Clippers in 5

Nuggets over Suns in 6
Lakers over Kings in 6

Nuggets over Lakers in 5

Finals: Bucks over Nuggets in 6

I don't believe in any of these picks, don't know how I got Denver in the Finals.

79. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:20 PM (#6124138)

Regarding all the blowing up/tanking talk, I just want to point out those aren't the same things. And maybe SJ can explain himself but I didn't read "blow up this Heat team" as meaning they should tank, just that this group is not going to win.

I think the Sixers/Rockets/OKC/Utah approach is pretty different than what most teams have done historically. (I'm also not convinced Utah is fully going to pursue it; Ainge isn't young and has had health problems, I can't imagine he wants some kind of 4-5 year rebuild? Could be wrong.)

80. asinwreck Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6124139)

I don't have a fixed order of preferences to win it all, but I would love to see a Nuggets-Heat finals to see what factors the contrasting elements of thin air and Atlantis play in an extended series.

81. Athletic Supporter's restaurant with Ted Danson Posted: April 15, 2023 at 01:48 PM (#6124140)

East:
Bucks, Celtics, Nets (Ewing Theory, baby!), Cavs
Bucks over Celtics in ECF

West:
Nuggets, Grizz, Warriors, Suns
Grizz over Nuggets in WCF

Grizzlies over Bucks in finals

No primary horse in this race, but rooting for Cavs, Grizzlies, Kings of course, and Wolves as the official team of the BBTF NBA Thread.

I don't really dislike any of these teams particularly. Hooray basketball!

82. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: April 15, 2023 at 02:01 PM (#6124142)

harden's looking pretty spry.

83. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: April 15, 2023 at 02:37 PM (#6124143)

every ####### time with that ####### drive.

can someone teach this guy a ####### finger roll already. there's gotta be a white guy on youtube for that.

84. Hombre Brotani

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 02:53 PM (#6124144)

Post-trade, the Nets have some nice pieces, but they're badly overmatched in this round.

85. i don't vibrate on the frequency of the 57i66135 Posted: April 15, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6124145)

I don't really dislike any of these teams particularly

you disgust me.

Post-trade, the Nets have some nice pieces, but they're badly overmatched in this round.

noone looks good when they give up 20-and-counting 3Ps.

86. spivey Posted: April 15, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6124146)

I think Boston beats Milwaukee. I think two things - Middleton isn't an all-star anymore, and Boston just has fewer weaknesses on both offense and defense - almost everyone in their rotation is a two-way player.

I'd probably take Boston and Milwaukee vs. the field.

87. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 03:57 PM (#6124148)

East:
Bucks over Heat in 4
Celtics over Hawks in 5
Sixers over Nets in 4
Cavs over Knicks in 6

Cavs over Bucks in 6
Celtics over Sixers in 7

Cavs over Celtics in 6

West:
Nuggets over Wolves in 5
Grizzlies over Lakers in 6
Warriors over Kings in 6
Suns over Clippers in 4 (plus bonus Kawhi injury!)

Suns over Nuggets in 5
Grizzlies over Warriors in 6 (Dillon Brooks may break some kind of record for being annoying)

Suns over Grizzlies in 7

Finals: Suns over Cavs in 6

88. SteveF Posted: April 15, 2023 at 04:00 PM (#6124150)

Spicy Cavs pick. I think they might end up being too easy to gameplan against given their non-shooters and offensive spacing. They were sub .500 on the road and against teams with a winning record, which aren't great playoff indicators.
But spicy nonetheless!

Edit: On the other side, they had the best record in games decided by 10+ points. So there is that.

89. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2023 at 04:04 PM (#6124151)

I’m extremely high on Mitchell so I don’t rule out a run from them. I think they don’t have enough offense probably? I don’t know.

I definitely think the Sixers have a chance this year, I just think they have a much narrower path. I’m very skeptical of everyone outside of Embiid and Harden, but if they get some breaks and some hot shooting games from the bench guys they’ve got a chance against anyone, Embiid is just ridiculous right now.

90. spivey Posted: April 15, 2023 at 04:07 PM (#6124152)

The Cavs are very good, but it's worth noting that Milwaukee's stats with Middleton after he came back also are very, very good.

I fear Donovan Mitchell, but I also feel like the Cavs are going to have to rely on an outrageous amount of off the dribble 3s to beat Milwaukee and Boston. They can do that, but it's hard living.

91. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 04:19 PM (#6124153)

Spicy Cavs pick. I think they might end up being too easy to gameplan against given their non-shooters and offensive spacing. They were sub .500 on the road and against teams with a winning record, which aren't great playoff indicators.
But spicy nonetheless!

92. spivey Posted: April 15, 2023 at 04:25 PM (#6124155)

The thing with the Cavs is that none of the good teams in the East can really make them pay for playing big. Are you really afraid of anyone in the east getting Jarett Allen on a switch? Allen can guard anyone on the Celtics or Bucks.

I think they'll maybe be better than the Bucks as soon as next year, but they have serious depth issues, lack of experience (which does matter imo), play 2-3 non-shooters, and have mostly poor defenders besides their two bigs. I think those things make them pretty vulnerable in a long series.

93. If on a winter's night a father of a newborn baby Posted: April 15, 2023 at 04:58 PM (#6124160)

I've not posted my playoff opinions, and I won't: I am, once again, much higher on the Celtics than consensus (which, to be fair, has worked out well more often than not), and I am simultaneously aware of my own bias and irrationality worried about a jinx.

94. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 05:01 PM (#6124161)

I think they'll maybe be better than the Bucks as soon as next year, but they have serious depth issues, lack of experience (which does matter imo), play 2-3 non-shooters, and have mostly poor defenders besides their two bigs. I think those things make them pretty vulnerable in a long series.

Every team, in the East and the West, have issues compared to a typical year. I think some of those Cavs issues are overstated and in part due to injury.

Boston is incredibly dependent on mediocre shooters hitting shots.
Milwaukee has a bunch of old/inury prone guys.
Suns have three of the most injury prone stars in the league.
Lakers are old af (and injury prone).
Golden State's juju is off all year.
Denver gives up layups and can't avoid it.
Memphis has the emotional maturity of a JV squad.

95. SteveF Posted: April 15, 2023 at 06:22 PM (#6124169)

Knicks are blitzing Mitchell/Garland PnR.

96. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 15, 2023 at 06:33 PM (#6124171)

94--The Cs analysis seems weirdly....specific compared to the others. Who are the guys we should expect to start hitting fewer shots? Are we talking about 3s?

97. SteveF Posted: April 15, 2023 at 06:41 PM (#6124172)

The problem with the Celtics is their lack of an elite shot creator. Tatum just isn't that guy. They have other issues like turnovers and some questionable basketball IQ, but the main issue is that Tatum isn't as good as Steph or KD, and he lacks Giannis drive/ability to get to the rim/get FTs.

98. spivey Posted: April 15, 2023 at 06:42 PM (#6124173)

94--The Cs analysis seems weirdly....specific compared to the others. Who are the guys we should expect to start hitting fewer shots? Are we talking about 3s?

I do think it's fair to wonder if some of the offensive efficiency breaks down if Smart and Derrick White shoot at about 33% from 3 and teams just load up on driving lanes and make those guys shoot a ton.

99. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: April 15, 2023 at 06:54 PM (#6124174)

94--The Cs analysis seems weirdly....specific compared to the others. Who are the guys we should expect to start hitting fewer shots? Are we talking about 3s?

Like ... all of the role players? They're all over their heads based on the track record.

Horford hit 45% this year and was 36% for his career prior to this year.
Derrick White is a career 35% 3p shooter
Smart is career 32%
Brogdon is career 38%
Grant Williams is career 38%

The Celtics are chucking 3s like the 2018 Rockets. They don't really have an efficient backup plan, and none of the rotation shooters are knockdown guys. It's one thing to say, well, if Klay Thompson misses 2/3 of his open 3s, then we lose. It's another to say that about Derrick White.

100. spivey Posted: April 15, 2023 at 07:01 PM (#6124177)

What is RJ Barrett... good at?

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