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Thursday, April 13, 2023
2023 NBA Playoffs Thread
I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 teams in the play-in round.
Hombre Brotani
Posted: April 13, 2023 at 04:37 PM | 2710 comment(s)
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Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic
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It is pretty boring honestly.
Still, weird coincidence that the NBA has had so many burner account scandals.
Looks like there will finally be a team that wins after going down 0-3.
the average age for NBA players (26.3) is 2 full calendar years younger than the average age for NHL players (28.4).
Your attempts at reverse jinxes are transparent and lame.
If Boston makes the Finals, and you want to point the finger, then I would point it at Harden and Embiid, and maybe at the Bucks more than at Miami's guys.
James/retirement/Irving: The spec in LakerLand ofc is that James's reference to retiring was one of his passive-aggressive moves to pressure Pelinka into trying to get Irving. I like Irving's game more than many do, and although the Lakers were swept by a better team, the total point differential was only 24, so if this scenario is the case, then James may think that they could have beaten Denver with another great scorer. If Irving could replace Russell and all the other guys stayed, then maybe, but that is not realistic. Irving will be 32 next year, misses games, does not play much defense, and seems to be a real weirdo. I am Captain Starfucker, but the Lakers' FO needs to overspend in-house more than to overthink or star-chase. As has been said by many: keep most of the guys they have, even though it will be expensive, run it back with James and Davis one more time, and have salary ballast in case they have a chance to make a move at the deadline.
Regarding Kyrie, playing with LeBron seems to tamp down the crazy and even causes him to give a (deleted) defensively. It would also give AD more pick-and-pop opportunities.
I'll only speak for myself but will say that yes I am transparent and lame.
Not that it's an excuse, but I was pretty annoyed that the NBA Takes Industrial Complex was pumping out so much content after game 3 that acted as if the series was entirely over. Also, too, if that game was competitive for any of the 48 minutes then maybe I'd have just watched it instead of finding transparent and lame things to post online.
FWIW (which is a lot more than my lame posts) Pinnacle has the series at -145 Heat / +126 Celtics now at this typing so it's up in the air at this point. (EDIT - And I don't believe enough in my power of reverse jinxing or the might of the Celtics to put any actual money on this at those odds.)
The Celtics are objectively a better team, but the talent gap isn't THAT large. It's
certainly not wide enough to expect one team to beat the other four games in a row.
Boston has played two max-effort, high-intensity games to stay alive. That's very draining physically and mentally, and tough to sustain.
The Heat are coming back home.
One thing for sure... Denver is loving this.
But I do think that's out of line. This isn't the typical team being down 3-0.
Gabe Vincent is just a guy, maybe not even that. How did we get to the point where he's being seen as a key part of the formula? Narrative is weird.
43% - Heat in 6
43% - Celtics in 7
14% - Heat in 7
The Stiggles Scenario from 2068/2214 does remain the most entertaining one. The Tuesday Podcasts will be welcome after a long weekend.
They already have, dating back to the Philly series. What's 2 more? ;-)
Snark aside, obviously picking any team down 0-3 is a bad bet. But as others have pointed out, the C's are in the rare position of being the clearly better team that was down 0-3. That hardly ever happens, and it's part of why we've never seen a 0-3 comeback before (in basketball). If we spotted clear underdogs a 3 game lead more often, I suspect we'd have seen the favorites complete the comeback a few times by now.
Joe Mazzulla, the Bill Russell of coaches?
He's very much just a guy, but a guy who has been on a torrid shooting streak (50% from 3 for the series), and also one whose absence necessitates heavy minutes from a very toasty Kyle Lowry. Narrative is weird, but so is having a team in the ECF with this thin a roster.
Sure, anyone can shoot well over a small sample, but I'm not convinced that his absence is meaningful.
Can't 100% tell if this is self-parody, but I'm guessing yes.
And ofc Booey is right and so are others, and that is what I meant by "obvious." Boston is better than Miami. I think G6 is a coin flip and Boston would be about 80/20 for G7.
.
Someone--probably shipman, the Viscount of Variance--said a few years ago that when the opponent is raining 3s down on your a$$ and you are bricking your 3s, you look hangdog. This is exacerbated in a postseason situation, where the crowd is going apeshit and you have Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal coming on at halftime saying you are laying down. And ofc in this series we have a rookie coach up against a veteran top-tier coach in a conference finals between two franchises with some history--and one of those franchises is Boston. So, it is sort of a perfect storm for the NBATIC.
I don't know what this means but I don't think it's a particularly hot take to predict that a team will not be coming back from 0-3 since it's never happened before.
I kind of did, actually--but I did hedge it--said they could "still make some noise." The key was winning G4. The series went to "at risk" for Miami when Boston took it to them in that game. I think Boston now has the edge, and if I had to bet 1K at gunpoint, I would bet it on Boston. But TBH I was mostly just rejecting the NBATIC narrative that Boston was laying down and that Mazzulla is the coaching equivalent of Peter Griffin rather than making a prediction.
I support this. I feel like the "quitting" stuff was a bit much, especially. I'm sure I've used that term before, too, but it's probably not right very often.
See, even BOS and LAL fans can find some common ground.
Here's what changed in the series:
Boston started shooting better. Boston got a friendlier whistle in game 5.
Miami started shooting worse.
I think the most likely single outcome is Miami in 6, and thought so when they were up 3-0.
But it's also true that Miami didn't even shoot appreciably worse than Boston in game 5, they just took 16 fewer 3PA. The story to me is more that Boston has rediscovered the stifling defense they relied on last year and much of this season. Their rotations and doubles were precise and befuddled the Heat, limiting looks from beyond the arc without letting Butler and Bam work in the interior unbothered. The turnovers Boston forced mattered a lot, especially coupled with them not turning it over on the other end as much as they did earlier in the series.
So if the Celtics can keep playing this way, I think they are more likely to win the series than not. But, of course, this Celtics team has shown repeatedly that they can lose the plot and play like idiots for a crucial 5-6 minutes of a game, so we'll see.
These things are connected.
Is the idea that the Celtics just beat up the Heat? My point is that they have had a great defense the past two seasons because they have been aggressive and disciplined in how and when they switched and doubled, and have gotten back to doing those things after not executing well earlier in the series. I'm sure the whistle matters, but to suggest it is the only difference is pretty reductive.
Plenty of variance, and maybe a better job of not giving up uncontested 3s, but definitely also this. Don't bite, and Butler basically just has that turnaround jumper. Which he usually hits, but still.
Words that do not often appear consecutively in a sentence.
2246: Don't know much about Griffin, but his resume is pretty similar in some ways to Ham's, and they are one year apart in age. I think that if the Lakers had not hired Ham last year, then Ham might well have gotten the Milwaukee job this year. Ham had a rep as a good communicator coming in, and navigating the weird year that the Lakers had with the personalities they had suggests that he has those skills. Milwaukee would seem to need a tactics guy, so maybe that is more Griffin's rep--don't know. Presumably Antetokounmpo supported this; James and Davis supported the Ham hire pretty vocally at the time.
Hard to argue with the Raptors' results given talent, and the Bucks got the guy who probably contributed a lot to that while from all accounts being a locker room positive. Seems like a smart hire.
Giannis apparently met individually with all the finalists.
S&T Russell + Beasley to the Nets for Simmons + O'Neale.
Why it makes sense for the Nets. They need to add a true lead guard, Russell has had success there. He's cheaper than Simmons, and I don't have much hope for a Simmons revival in a place he's already repeatedly failed. O'Neale for Beasley also makes sense to turn some of that defensive wing depth into bench shooting.
Why it makes sense for the Lakers. Simmons higher per year but shorter contract is a great exchange. He is due less total money than Russell will likely get, so it's a cost savings if they just keep the player. But as a tradeable asset, Simmons can be used to match more salary bring back more pieces (or bigger pieces). Beasley for O'Neale balances the money and I think fits the roster better.
Why it makes sense for Russell (he needs to agree). There are very few teams who are able and potentially willing to pay Russell big money to play a lead guard role. Brooklyn is one of them, and he's been there before and succeeded.
Why it makes sense for Simmons (he doesn't need to agree). Simmons has long wanted to go LA, and needs to get his head right. I would imagine that the probability of salvaging his career - while pretty low regardless - would be maximized in a place that he wants to be, on a team that appears high functional with a clear hierarchy so he doesn't have to navigate his place. That's good for Simmons, and a free lottery ticket for the Lakers.
now this is depressing...
jesus ####### christ. this isn't that hard.
these refs are on the ####### take.
oof. and another one.
eat ####.
the early 2000s jailblazers.
the 2009-2011 zardos are the absolute floor for intelligence in an NBA team (blatche, nick young, javale mcgee, agent 0), but they weren't good.
Yeah. These are pretty good.
That said, the Celtics won a game when they shot 7-35 from three and the Heat shot 14-30. That's kind of remarkable.*
* Apparently it was Boston's worst three-point percentage of the entire season? Per Kevin O'Connor, anyway. Coulda sworn they had a worse one or two.
Yes. Not sure about whether they'd also correct the timing, as they added .9 seconds to the game clock and that turned out to be relevant.
If they would have corrected the time, it was just a wasted challenge.
But yeah, Miami won the arc, only turned the ball over 5 times, they were at home, and they still could not get it done. I think that they will probably put up more of a fight in G7 than Philadelphia did but like I said, I thought G6 was a toss-up and G7 would be about 80/20 Boston and I actually feel it is more like 90/10.
This series is a good object lesson in the NBATIC thing; if this series were back-and-forth 3-3 and Miami had won 103-102 tonight to force G7,then the Heat would be feted for the guts and their great run and G7 would be gravy. As it is, ofc, that is not how it will be remembered, and I would imagine that it is a very rough thing to deal with for hardcore Heat fans (and yes, there are some). From an emotional standpoint, I would not want to see the Lakers in this situation, even as an underdog 8 seed.
Minutes 45-47.59.9: Lo and behold! I have returned when you needed me most
Last 0.1 second: WTF?
This series is reminding me of the 1982 Celtics-Sixers Eastern final.
For some reason, I remember the broadcaster's comments at the end of that Game 7. "A game no one thought the Sixers could win. Except for the Sixers themselves."
we're safe.
Lots of teams would roll over after giving up a 3-0 lead. This Heat team will not. Monday will be another dog fight.
At least four in the playoffs, preferably eight.
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