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Wolves review and preview.

The 2022 - 2023 season was ... eventful. Below is my summarized review and preview. It is not exhaustive and was done without a huge amount of thought. But I am avoiding some other writing I need to do.

Front Office: The Wolves got a whole new front office and it didn't do anything much. Other than one of the worst trades in NBA history and also a host of other moves which were very good (ignoring that one terrible trade). The front office drafted really well (Walker Kessler for the win?) and made one of the best free agent signings in team history (Slo-Mo!). And the DLo for Conley, NAW, and multiple 2nd round picks was brilliant. And yet ... sigh.

Players:
KAT was hurt and when around was who he is (good and bad). He remains to all appearances a good teammate and worked hard to incorporate Gobert.

Gobert was not great, compared to past seasons, and certainly not for the cost. But he didn't make the trade, so that is not his fault. Their defense with him on the court, especially the half-court defense, was much improved.

Conley was everything you could hope for. Slo-Mo was a very good player for the majority of the season.

Jaden & Ant both made major steps forward and are the real hope of the franchise.

The bench was mostly some guys, with high points (Nas) and low points (Bryn Forbes). Most disappointing was J Nowell, who just never looked right and needs a change of scenery.

Overall it was a disappointing season relative to expectations and yet compared to the median Wolves season it was a huge success, with back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in nearly 20 years.

Next year:
What to do, what to do? There are four basic paths. The are presented below in order of likelihood (not my preference).

Run it back: Make some incremental changes, but assume that growth in the young kids, continuity, and better health (wolves health was basically crap all year) makes them a better team. The most likely option. Meh, whatever. I see the logic, but given the new CBA and salary cap situation the year after next I really don't like this option at all.

Trade KAT: Try to fix the really poor-fitting roster and get some assets back. He can't be traded for a while yet (after the draft I think), but this is the best chance for the team to restock and try for pieces that fit better, while hopefully preventing Cap apocalypse. This option is not likely, but is most wolves fans preference, not because KAT is hated, but if there is a shake up to be done, this is the obvious place to start.

Trade Gobert: Now we are in highly unlikely territory. You would get pennies on the dollar and the front office would be admitting what a terrible trade they made. Good idea or bad idea, it is doubtful we see it happen. I don't think it is worthwhile unless you can get something good for Gobert.

Burn it down: Trade both KAT and Gobert. Go all in on the young ones. Includes resigning Nas I imagine. I suspect this is nearly as popular as the Trade KAT option, but is very unlikely IMO.

My preference would be ... trade KAT, run it back, burn it down, and last trade just Gobert.


I suspect they will run it back, with moves around the edges, and the team will win a few more games than last year. Maybe a trade at the trade deadline next year, and if not then a major organizational shake up in the 2024 offseason - unless the wolves have an unexpectedly good next year. Because of tghe steps that Ant and Jaden made I think the future is b right, but I don't think the future arrives next year.

Somehow, I missed talking about Finch. Finch had a bad year. Even accounting for the terrible fitting roster and bad injury situation, he was not great. I still think he is a good coach though and want to give him another year, but if he has another meh year then I would be OK with giving him the boot. I bet he has a bounceback year though.

I have NO idea what will happen Monday night. I do know one thing: bet your farm on the Nuggets in the NBA Finals, no matter who wins Game 7.

Boston won't magically turn into a smart team by virtue of coming back from 0-3 down. They'll make the same head-scratching mental mistakes next series and Denver has the talent to punish them.

I agree with rr last page about the "Celtics are boneheads" angle being a bit overdetermined. Sure, they gave up a ten point lead last game; they also managed to win a game where they shot 20% from three while the Heat shot 46% from deep and took 15 more shots. Any offense that takes as many threes as the Celtics do looks bad when they aren't falling. (Part of the reason I worried they wouldn't make it to game seven is that I wasn't sure they could win a game where they three point luck went against them, though I'm happy to be wrong.) As has been observed, it's hard to look good as a team when you aren't hitting from deep and the other team is.

To the degree that this Celtics team are boneheads, and they definitely are, that boneheadedness didn't keep them from having the second-best offense and third-best defense in the league. If they make the Finals Denver might well win, maybe even should be favored, but the idea that the Celtics couldn't beat them is as silly as the idea that it's a foregone conclusion Miami won't win game seven. Everything seems very much on the table to me still in every direction for the ECF and the Finals. (The Heat would be a serious underdog in the Finals should they make it, but on paper they've been an underdog every round since them stumbled out of the play-in games.)

I don't know if the Nuggets will win the series, but I would bet a ton on them winning game 1. At altitude, well rested.

I don't know if the Nuggets will win the series, but I would bet a ton on them winning game 1. At altitude, well rested.

If Boston wins, I believe they have home court in the finals.

The idea that Boston can't beat Denver, if Boston gets there, is just a narrative thing, based on Boston's struggles with Miami and Denver sweeping the Lakers. The first four things I look at going to into a playoff series that seems up for grabs are, with my Mayor of Simpleton view of the NBA, are:

Best player
ORTG and DRTG
HCA *and yes, Boston would have it
2nd-best player

I do not look as much at matchups and perceptions about the coaches as much as many people do. Denver/Boston would probably be very competitive. I would pick Denver, but it would be a tight matchup.

This series will also have the old rest vs. rust angle no matter who wins tomorrow.

Somehow, I missed talking about Finch. Finch had a bad year. Even accounting for the terrible fitting roster and bad injury situation, he was not great. I still think he is a good coach though and want to give him another year, but if he has another meh year then I would be OK with giving him the boot. I bet he has a bounceback year though.

Co-sign, although I would rate Finch somewhere below bad. The Wolves intentionally went with an odd fitting roster, with their major acquisition being a rather inflexible asset (Gobert), and their most established star not having a reputation for quick decision making (Towns). But Finch's primary offensive strategy appeared to be read-and-react fluidity.

Even had Towns not been injured, I saw very little that gave me confidence that Finch was getting anywhere close to max production out of this team. Baffling.

I'm also pretty out on Finch; although I agree with his principles, it's just wasn't a roster that's going to work like that. Swap Conley for Russell, and things get better, but what are you gonna do with Towns?

My ideal would be the teardown -- get what you can for Gobert, pick up a couple picks and a starter for Towns, getting salary back that can be shed in the next couple of years, keep Reid and Alexander-Walker, run out Conley/Ant/McDaniels/Anderson/<someone like Hartenstein or Claxton>, and pivot completely. Failing that, I guess it's trade Towns for what you can and go out and find shooting on the margins.

I can see the logic of run it back, particularly because both Towns and Gobert are, uh, distressed assets at the moment, and I could even see it working, if I squint a bit. But the salary structure is not sustainable, given that Edwards and McDaniels are going to be making ALL THE MONEY soon. Good thing they have so many picks going forward to add cost-controller ... hold on ... what's that again?

Sigh.

It’s possible but I think unlikely you even get assets for Gobert so I’d keep him. Just deal Towns though. He’s a distressed asset but made all-NBA the year before and I think it’s possible his value goes down with another year of this weird roster.

I still maintain the Celtics are the absolute dumbest good basketball team I can remember in a long time. I don't even know if there's another comp.

Most of Wilt Chamberlain's teams might qualify for that honor, as could the 1976-77 Sixers. Teams centered on Scoring Gods are often at a loss to beat teams that know how to maximize the talents of all five players on the court.

---------------------

I'm picking Miami for Game 7.

This series is reminding me of the 1982 Celtics-Sixers Eastern final.

Well, if Miami wins I doubt if the series will be ending with Boston fans shouting "BEAT DENVER...BEAT DENVER..." (smile)

[Brian Davis] was a prominent supporting player on some great Duke basketball teams in the 1990s, then washed out of the NBA after one season spent as Christian Laettner's emotional support teammate in Minnesota, and has since made a name for himself as a real estate developer and entrepreneur, and more specifically made a name for himself as the type of real estate developer and entrepreneur who is constantly getting sued. It is the grimmest and most hopeful possible understatement to say that this is a familiar character type in American life, and Davis has mostly inhabited the role in a familiar way—taking out loans and soliciting investors for real estate developments that mostly didn't happen and then getting sued for not paying those loans back, and then starting new holding companies and trying it all again. Davis, in partnership with Laettner and on his own, had done this for (notional) real estate developments in New Jersey and Maryland and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and Washington D.C.; he has been sued by Shawne Merriman (in 2009) and Scottie Pippen (in 2010) and Johnny Dawkins (in 2012) for not repaying debts. By the time those suits were filed, Davis had begun aiming very high indeed.
[...]
In response to reports that some portion of his sudden wealth came from Saudi Arabia, Davis asserted that his bid's funding "comes from white people ... who are Jewish, Italian, and Sicilian." The $2.1 billion that he, personally, would need to have to qualify as the lead owner on that bid was, Davis said, his and his alone. "This is my Redemption Song," he said. "I’m hoops Bob Marley!" Six days after submitting his bid, Davis was sued by a Northeast D.C. man for failing to repay a $322,000 loan.

an american tale


dook's continued existence is a stain on humanity. at least penn state gave us ben and jerrys.

Personally I couldn't think of a more perfect tag team successor to Dan Snyder than Brian Davis.

A description like that, Brian Davis could be a future republican president!

I'm not sure that Gobert's value is really down. Obviously the Wovles won't get back what they paid, but that's mostly because they significantly overpaid rather than any attrition in Gobert's value. He appeared to have had a typical Gobert season, it isn't his fault that the roster fit was bad, depth was gutted to pay his salary, Ant was hot and cold and young, and Towns missed 2/3 of the season.

Regardless, if one of Towns/Gobert must be traded, I agree that Towns makes the most sense as the guy to go. Gobert has proven to be capable of being a 1a/1b type on a contender (5 of last 6 seasons the Jazz SRS would have led the 2022-23 Western Conference) and it's easy to see what a traditionally good team built around Ant/Gobert might look like (a little development and holding off father time, Conley + McDaniels + the return for Towns could be that team next year).

Towns to the Bulls for DeRozan + Caruso might make sense for both teams.

2317, that's fair. You could basically turn them into the Jazz, with a bigger lead guard than Mitchell. That's not bad!

Yes, that's the plan!

The big worry with Gobert is that he may already be starting to decline. His numbers may look the same, but the 2022 T-Wolves had a faster pace of any of Gobert's Jazz teams; you'd expect a slight increase in numbers just from the increase in pace alone.

Towns to the Bulls for DeRozan + Caruso might make sense for both teams.

you misspelled "gobbert" there.

Yeah, you're not going to get those peak Jazz teams. But it's a template, I guess. I do kind of hate Gobert's stone hands, though, and it clearly bugs Edwards how stiff Rudy is on offence.

i know people are "down" on him, but you don't trade a 28 year old superstar (who has shown unending loyalty to your dogshit organization, btw) for a 35 year old who's "best" years were as fun as a sledgehammer to the testicles and a random ####### bench guy who's only valuable because other teams think he's undervalued.


jesus christ people. get a grip.

I mean no right thinking person would choose Gobert over Towns in a vacuum. And yet, here we ####### are.

I'd rather have Towns than Gobert I guess, maybe. Neither player is doing much to get you out of the second round of the playoffs, but perhaps that's aiming too high.

I wonder how irrelevant cap space is to a team like Mimmesota given the nature of NBA talent these days (there's a lot of it) and the upcoming de facto hard cap. We used to think cap space for these kinds of teams didn't matter, but maybe going forward it will?

I'd rather have Towns than Gobert I guess, maybe. Neither player is doing much to get you out of the second round of the playoffs, but perhaps that's aiming too high.

trade towns to san antonio and see what happens.

I was looking at the Finals schedule and was dismayed to note that almost all the games have two days between them (one has one day). This seems pretty excessive to me. I get that they budget for cross country travel, but it just seems so hard for the series to gather momentum playing so infrequently. Imagine if the World Series took 18 days to complete.

Nurse to Philly, which feels right. Let's see what happens.

Nick Nurse to Philadelphia may make their games even more tedious to watch.

2327 -- don't give Manfred any ideas.

Justin Grasso @JGrasso_
The #Sixers are planning to hire Nick Nurse to become the new head coach, a source confirms

eh...i guess it's fine.

1599. /muteself 57i66135 Posted: May 16, 2023 at 12:26 PM (#6128444)

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn
The Sixers’ search for a new coach is expected to include Mike Budenholzer, Sam Cassell, Mike D’Antoni, Nick Nurse, Frank Vogel and Monty Williams, sources tell ESPN.

preference order:

vogel
cassell
nurse
budenholzer
williams
dan tony

Towns to the Bulls for DeRozan + Caruso might make sense for both teams.

No. No. No. I am pretty out of Towns, but that is an absurd trade IMO. If that is all Towns is worth then keep him.

I mean no right thinking person would choose Gobert over Towns in a vacuum. And yet, here we ####### are.

You can get more (in theory) for Towns. In a vacuum, I guess I prefer Towns, but neither does all that much for me (for different reasons). But, assuming you don't feel you can keep both, Towns makes more sense to trade, if you can get anything worth while (No, DeRozen and Caruso don't count).

Breaking news! I saw Zach Edey in the Dallas airport today. He is a very, very tall man to fly commercial.

You can get more (in theory) for Towns. In a vacuum, I guess I prefer Towns, but neither does all that much for me (for different reasons). But, assuming you don't feel you can keep both, Towns makes more sense to trade, if you can get anything worth while (No, DeRozen and Caruso don't count).

I can see a path to a very good team with Edwards, Towns and McDaniels. With Gobert in there, it's harder; with Gobert and minus what they gave up to get him ... I just don't see a salary path to any kind of competitive team with both Towns and Gobert on those deals, and then you have to pare down, and the only way to realistically pare down is to move Towns. Ugh.

Boston is... not looking impressive.

What a field day for the Heat.

Home-court advantage has not applied in this series.

could Haywood Highsmith be the greatest player ever to come out of Wheeling Jesuit?

Man, there's a lot of over the backs and other shoves on both teams during rebounds not being called.

Oh man! Blake Griffin! I forgot he was on the Celtics!

These offenses are, like, real not good right now.

Tatum has zero mobility. He can't cut in the halfcourt and is hiding on the corner shooter on defense.

When is the last time Miami got a good shot? It feels like it's been several minutes.

With Tatum and Butler both hobbled, the winner of this game is the Denver Nuggets.

Traveling? In the NBA?

This is truly terrible basketball.

“If you want entertainment go and watch a bunch of clowns.”

At this rate, the Celtics will catch the Heat by the end of the 11th quarter.

Boston blowing a layup followed by a quick Heat three. Thats the game in a nutshell.

Bring out the fork.

It's pretty hard to lose 9 of 20 playoff games when you have a massive talent disparity over your opponents, but the Celtics have found a way to do it.

Gobert has proven to be capable of being a 1a/1b type on a contender

Wew lad.

What a field day for the Heat.

A thousand people in the streets.

Home-court advantage has not applied in this series.

The Scott Foster touch.

Oh and edit: I really wonder what Boston does with Jaylen Brown this offseason.

You gotta imagine about 20 teams are watching this and thinking they should be the ones in the finals.

On cue, Kyle Lowry tips a rebound away from the much taller Al Horford... and after Caleb Martin misses an ill-advised heat check three, Jaylen Brown does the exact same thing.

Time for Angels-White Sox.

Go Nuggets.

Spot on whoever was talking about Brown's turnovers being mostly his handle being weak.

Sucks about Tatum being compromised. Brown is trying but he just can't be your primary initiator.

You gotta imagine about 20 teams are watching this and thinking they should be the ones in the finals.

Certainly the seven teams eliminated from the West bracket. The Nuggets won what was, by far, the stronger conference.

Mazzulla didn't make the right adjustments!

You might be having a rough night if Duncan Robinson is taunting your crowd.

I hope Mazzulla is fired because he'd be a good coach for my hometown Pistons.

not what i was hoping for, but still pretty ####### funny.

Did Van Gundy really just equate Tyler Herro to Jayson Tatum?

Kornet time.

jesus christ, when did boston sign the entire state of wyoming?


i haven't been flashbanged that hard since i went to a movie theater with pee wee herman.

Pat Riley walks down to courtside with the biggest possible smirk on his face. God, I love Pat Riley. If you've got it, flaunt it!

Okay with the Heat up 20 and 6 min to go, I will look ahead to the Finals.

I don't want to pick the Heat because they're obviously worse as a team, but I also don't want to pick against the Heat for the 4th series in a row.

The Heat actually lowkey have a decent matchup. They like to generate points out of PnR and spotting up around that play. Denver gives up a ton of spot ups and allows the ball handler to shoot a ton. That's good for Miami!

Spo is going to dial some stuff up, but I can't imagine that the zone stuff is going to work against Jokic. You can run a ton of zone when Jokic is out of the game because the rest of Denver's team is actually pretty poor bbiq.

No one on Miami besides Bam can really credibly defend Jokic. I can't imagine Caleb Martin being effective.

Miami has to run out of 3p shooting magic sooner or later, don't they?

I can't imagine anyone on the Heat roster effectively defending Jokic, and Michael Malone is fully capable of matching wits with Spoelstra. Nuggets in five.

Well that went about as poorly as possible, turns out Tatum is pretty important to the Cs, certainly if they aren't hitting all their 3s. Turns out going down 0-3 is really worth avoiding. I imagine Stevens will sit tight and upgrade the coaching staff this offseason, but we'll see. Pretty much everyone that matters but Grant Williams is under contract, Grant's a RFA, and surely the return of Gallinari next season will change everything.

You'd figure Caleb Martin can't keep doing it, but time will tell. I also expect Jokic to do well against the Heat.

You know it's over when the Celtics put in Greg Kite and Jerry Sichting.

Caleb Martin *handily* outplayed Jaylen Brown this series.

Nuggets in five.

I really don't see the Heat being able to slow down Denver's offense, and they're not going to be able to keep up in a horse race.

There's been some buzz about Jaylen Brown wanting to go back to Atlanta. But if I'm the Hawks, is he really worth it?

So if the Nuggets win the title, Jokic's argument for a top-20 player alltime skyrockets, right? He's 28 years old and has probably been the best basketball player in basketball for 3 years. He's got a game that should age well.

If the Heat win the title, Jimmy Butler is going to have a very special place in NBA history.

Cool finals, narrative wise.

My prediction is that Jokic will have multiple 20-rebound games. Miami is a small team.

Celtics fans overjoyed to watch Jimmy Butler receive the Larry Bird Trophy.

How did the rest of the NBA go along with naming BOTH of these trophies after former Celtics?

The Nuggets won both regular-season matchups with Miami, including a road win without Jamal Murray.

John Hollinger @johnhollinger
Boston becomes first city to lose a home Game 7 to an 8-seed in both hockey and basketball in the same season.

It was spivey who made the comment about Brown's handle.

Denver in 5 is the logical pick, but Miami has beaten two teams that are pretty much as good as Denver.

Minnesota: Only the BBTF NBA Thread would pivot into a detailed discussion of the Wolves' off-season before G7 of the ECF. I would not trade Towns if I ran Minnesota.

My thoughts are not original on Brown. I think GP3 stole the ball from him like 60% of the times he guarded him the last 3 games of the Finals last year. His handle I think is why his +/- is so bad. He’s a good play finisher.

Couldn’t watch this game either but looks like Miami will probably have won the 3pt battle for the series like .440 to .300 or something. I mean, sometimes it really is just that simple.

Basic numbers:

3P
MIA 89/205 .434
BOS 81/267 .303

Martin 22/45
Vincent 16/31
Robinson 15/31

Brown 7/43
Tatum 11/47
White 23/47 *he was 21/38 going into G7 and 2/9 in G7

Martin went 53/88 from the floor in the series; he had a .722 TS before tonight's game, in which he went 11/16 and 4/6 on 3s. To put that in perspective, Jokic led the NBA in this category at .701. Many of the leaders in this category are low-usage bigs--except for Austin Reaves, who 4th in the entire NBA in this category, at .687; Durant, 6th at .677, and Curry, 13th at .655. Embiid and Williamson were also in the Top 15.

Martin is actually a pretty good shooter; his career 3P is .360, and his career TS is .564. He had a really bad shooting year in '21, with a .465 TS, so his "true" skill level is probably around .600.

But one way to look at the series is that Miami had a guy on the floor at a wing/smallball 4 position shooting better than Kevin Durant from both 2P and 3P on pretty high usage. Put that with Butler and Adebayo, and well, you're in the Finals.

This is the 19th time that Pat Riley has been in the NBA Finals. 3 player/10 coach/6 exec.

Minnesota: Only the BBTF NBA Thread would pivot into a detailed discussion of the Wolves' off-season before G7 of the ECF. I would not trade Towns if I ran Minnesota.

Now let's do Charlotte!

What I find most impressive about Riley is that he’s the antithesis of a system guy. He finds the best players he can get for every era, using the tools of that era. Even as an old man he’s still cutting edge and evolving. For my money he’s better than Belichick.

Staring down one elimination game after another after another is extremely mentally and physically taxing, and even the best-conditioned pro athletes can't sustain it forever.

Happened with the 1980 Dodgers, the 1982 Orioles, the 2020 Astros.

Some have managed to break through: the 1985 Royals, the 1995 Rockets.

But it's much more the exception than the rule. The Celtics lost this series in the first three games.

Now let's do Charlotte!

1. Cody Martin turns into Caleb Martin
2. ???
3. NBA Finals!!

Gobert for Hayward, with a pick or two (OKC's 2nd next year?) coming back to MN?

I am listening to a Wovles podcast, and they're sort of debating whether or not the Wovles trade towns for the #2 or the #3. And, uh. Guys?

If I was Charlotte, I'd do that in a heartbeat. Ball-Gobert could be a nice combo.

Charlotte had the worst offense in the league last year. They had three players (LaMelo, T. Rozier, Kelly Oubre) average 20 ppg, but they combined to play only 147 games. I do have faith in Ball as a building block, but Hayward and Rozier are on a different timeline. Oubre is a free agent.

Drafting a useful player this year is a must. Of their young guys, Mark Williams has potential, James Bouknight has been an outright bust, PJ Washington is okay and is an RFA. There's buzz that Charlotte's interested in Brandon Miller, who would be a nice on-court fit, but I can't see them going that way after the Miles Bridges fallout.

I also am coming around to the "tear it all down" approach for the Wovles. They're going to have 66% of the salary cap committed to Towns and Gobert! It's ####### madness!

Towns + Gobert for Hayward, Rozier, and the #2 pick?

The other thought I had was Gobert to Dallas for the #10 and a bag of dead salary.

gobbert to TOR for siakam could also work for both teams.

gobbert to TOR for siakam could also work for both teams.

I would fall over myself to make that trade as MIN. Siakam is the guy they should've been targeting instead of Rudy.

Tor won’t do that. They gave up a pick to reacquire Poeltl for that role. He’s not as good as Gobert but he’ll cost less money and fewer Siakams.

I have no idea what the trade value of Towns is, it seems like it is all over the map in people's perceptions. I am not even sure the Wolves are shopping him (or are willing to trade him).

I am listening to a Wovles podcast, and they're sort of debating whether or not the Wovles trade towns for the #2 or the #3. And, uh. Guys?

I don't see a way that Portland could match salary that makes sense for either Towns or Gobert. Nurkic + Simons adds up to Gobert, but unless the question is "how do you spend all of Gobert's money for an even worse on-court fit?" they aren't the answer. The Hornets are a train wreck and I have zero sense of what they would or even should do, but they have a bunch of unrealized lottery tickets and Good Haggis as salary ballast so I could see something materializing.

It was spivey who made the comment about Brown's handle.

It was me, a few hundred posts before spivey. But I assume spivey and others have brought it up several pages and/or threads earlier than I did.

Potential MIN/CHO deal:

Towns for GH, Bouknight, Williams, Jones, #2

The two bigs from CHO fit into trade exceptions.

Why MIN would do it. Scoot takes over for Conley in a year; Williams takes over for Gobert in 3 years; other assets are obtained.

Why CHO would do it. They need good players. Which Towns is, and none of the others are currently.