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Thursday, April 13, 2023

2023 NBA Playoffs Thread

I estimate the NBA thread only had 10-12 teams in the play-in round.

Hombre Brotani Posted: April 13, 2023 at 04:37 PM | 2710 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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2401. asinwreck Posted: May 30, 2023 at 12:41 PM (#6130755)

My guess is Siakam is headed to Portland for the #3 pick.

Woj reporting Bob Myers is stepping down in Golden State. Lots of changes may happen to the Warriors in the next year. Does this affect Draymond Green's decision on his option?

2402. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: May 30, 2023 at 12:49 PM (#6130757)

Gobert earned $38,172,414 for this season followed by $41,000,000 then $43,827,587 then a player option for $46,655,173

With his offensive profile and age this looks really unappealing for almost any team

2403. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: May 30, 2023 at 12:50 PM (#6130758)

With his offensive profile and age this looks really unappealing for almost any team

He's useful still, particularly for a team that doesn't have high-end playoff expectations. A place with a couple of very young good players on rookie deals that needs to get better at defence right away? I can see it.

2404. DCA Posted: May 30, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6130760)

If Myers is out, that could be the end of the Warriors run.

Green has often spoken about how important Myers is. Sometimes that's just talk, but it increases the likelihood that Green leaves; he probably still stays but he has his pick of other contenders if he decides to go somewhere else.

Bringing it back to Minnesota, I think a Green departure puts the Warriors in the Gobert/Towns sweepstakes to support the last few years of Curry's prime. Two money fits (Warriors would have to add assets ofc):

Klay for Gobert

Poole + Kuminga for Towns

2405. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6130761)

With his offensive profile and age this looks really unappealing for almost any team

you have to think of gobbert like he's tyson chandler. let him set picks in the half court, run to the rim and then anchor a 2-3 zone defense.

boom. done. here's your 50 win team.

He's useful still, particularly for a team that doesn't have high-end playoff expectations. A place with a couple of very young good players on rookie deals that needs to get better at defence right away? I can see it.

i think gobbert would do disgusting things with fred vanvleet.

2406. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:01 PM (#6130763)

2403: ok. I freely admit bias on Gobert. I acknowledge what he can do but cannot get past what he can’t.

2407. Spivey Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:04 PM (#6130765)

@BucksFilmRoom

The 5 stages of losing to the Heat in the playoffs:

Denial: They can’t keep playing like this
Disbelief: How do they keep playing like this?
Anger: There’s no f’ing way they should be playing like this
Bargaining: They must’ve made a deal with a devil
Depression: Damn

2408. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:07 PM (#6130766)

How did I miss that post? That’s fantastic

2409. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:18 PM (#6130769)

an underrated thing about yesterday is that derrick white still has to pay for every beer he drinks in boston. hahahhahahahbahga.

imagine if it went the other way.

nah. hahaHHAHAHAahjadhd

2410. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:19 PM (#6130770)

i hate sports almost as much as i hate myself.

2411. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6130771)

Random thoughts I've had, that surely others have had, but no one seems to be talking about enough. Tatum being hurt is a big deal! Again, I know I'm not breaking any news here but don't think that's been fully acknowledged by some. Also, too, Brogdon being hurt is a big deal and them both being hurt at the same time has a sort of multiplicative effect. Also not breaking any ground here but feel like somehow the conversation is all about things other than the things that truly seem to matter?

If Boston breaks it up I just don't get it. Also, I don't get WHY Brown NEEDS to be paid the supermax? Is it just an ego thing? If he gets traded, the new team can't give him the supermax, right? So can't they just find a way to negotiate something more than the max and less than the super max and keep trying to win a title in the next couple of years? Or is that just not how things work?

2412. Spivey Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:38 PM (#6130773)

I don’t think Brown can get that deal because of the 140% rule (prev 120%) on raises. You’re right another team can’t give the supermax tho.

2413. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:42 PM (#6130774)

If Boston breaks it up I just don't get it. Also, I don't get WHY Brown NEEDS to be paid the supermax? Is it just an ego thing? If he gets traded, the new team can't give him the supermax, right? So can't they just find a way to negotiate something more than the max and less than the super max and keep trying to win a title in the next couple of years? Or is that just not how things work?

I don't get it either, but the conventional wisdom is that a player in that position would rather leave than get less than they were "owed". Even if it means taking less in another place.

2414. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:45 PM (#6130775)

Think the players association would have a say on a player not taking all that’s owed.

But based on that Ringer interview sure doesn’t feel like Brown is interested in giving Boston any special consideration anyway

2415. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:47 PM (#6130776)

I STILL DON'T GET IT.

2416. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:52 PM (#6130777)

I don't know if Boston is allowed to pay Brown less than the max on an extension, or if they can do the full max or the limited raise but nothing in between, but in practice it's seemed like players are mostly uninterested in negotiating below the max if they can get it. The thing with the Brown situation specifically is that there has long been speculation he might walk in free agency, so the perception is that they can extend him now or risk losing him after next year. The thought had been this season that the max was a fait accompli with rising tv revenue coming, but obviously the new CBA apron rules complicate that. It'll be very interesting to see how Stevens balances next year vs the next five years in how he approaches this offseason.

2417. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:56 PM (#6130778)

Another thing that I don't think has been said enough is the Ewing Theory Herro stuff. I'm sure I'm not the first person saying it but I don't think it's being said enough among the NBATIC.

How helpful is Herro if Butler/Bam are both playing 42 minutes? Are we sure Herro's better to have out there, in that situation, than Strus or Robinson? Sadly the same for Oladipo. Maybe this doesn't get brought up because it does feel gross talking about how some guy getting injured is actually good.

2418. PJ Martinez Posted: May 30, 2023 at 01:58 PM (#6130779)

2411: I haven't been reading or listening to the immediate post-mortems, but it seems crazy to me that any account of Game 7 wouldn't begin with Tatum getting seriously hurt on the first possession. That was basically game over — he was obviously struggling badly to move out there on both ends for the rest of the game. Sure, Miami also shot 50% from three again, and Boston had another terrible shooting night, Brown struggled, Brogdon played, etc. But Tatum's injury was a giant obstacle to overcome. I don't think that's an excuse, it's just a fact.

As far as Boston's approach with Brown and the rest of the roster, this is a good rundown, taking the new and very different CBA into account. It seems to me that the most likely outcome is giving Brown the max and trying to run things more or less back next year but starting to seriously explore trade options for him and jumping if a good opportunity arises. For as long as this CBA is in effect, it will be hard to keep multiple stars together, particularly if one of those stars isn't really quite a superstar on the court. As the post says:

Briefly the Warriors put four stars together. Starting this offseason the question for long-term sustainability is one star or two, once they accrue enough service time to really get paid.

2419. Spivey Posted: May 30, 2023 at 02:15 PM (#6130783)

I’m normally on Team Always Believe Women, but it’s interesting Adrian Griffin’s kids who were teenagers at the time seem to side with him. I think they spoke in his defense from what I’ve seen in court, they follow him on IG.

2420. PJ Martinez Posted: May 30, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6130784)

This is sort of interesting, also from Ryan Bernardoni (on Twitter), who wrote the piece linked above:

We're guaranteed to go another year where the NBA champ is not led by one of their own top-5 picks.

We'll stay at only SIX top-5 picks winning a title without having to first leave their drafting team since 1990.

There are 29 active players who meet the draft criteria.

The six players are two superstars (Duncan and Wade) one second star (Kyrie) one role player (T Thompson) and two passengers (Darko and Wiseman).

It has been very difficult to build from the top of the lottery to a title in the last 30 years.

2421. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 30, 2023 at 02:17 PM (#6130785)

I guess this is the way I need to think of it, that Brown was previously eligible for 30% of the cap, and is now eligible for 35% of the cap. And he can say "Give me 35% or I'll just go get 30% elsewhere in the summer of 2024 and you don't want this hanging over us all season." And Boston probably just needs to give the 35% to avoid that from happening. (Or I'm off somewhere here.)

2422. DCA Posted: May 30, 2023 at 02:35 PM (#6130789)

I guess I'm with C&P here.

I'm not sure Brown is even worth 30% of the cap; he's certainly not worth 35% of the cap. I get that "worth" is kind of a complicated concept since if a guy leaves in FA you don't necessarily have the ability to spend that amount on money on other things and Brown is good enough to have at any price if it's just money and doesn't mean losing or missing out on talent.

But if it came down to a choice between Brown and 2 of the other non-Tatum rotation players, or one and staying under the "screw the Warriors/Clippers" cap threshold I think I'd take door B.

2423. Spivey Posted: May 30, 2023 at 02:44 PM (#6130790)

Duncan and Wade have like 8 of those chips, though, right?

Also a whole bunch of those 90s chips were guys drafted top 5 from the previous decade. It’s rare for someone to be the leading man for a championship until they are like 27. So while I think there may be some more randomness in drafts now I find that comment misleading.

2424. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: May 30, 2023 at 02:56 PM (#6130791)

Also a whole bunch of those 90s chips were guys drafted top 5 from the previous decade.

I believe every single one of them (Isiah, MJ, MJ, MJ, Hakeem, Hakeem, MJ, MJ, MJ, Admiral).

2425. PJ Martinez Posted: May 30, 2023 at 03:21 PM (#6130794)

Right, but those guys were drafted in the eighties, not the nineties, so it holds that, starting in the nineties, very few of the very top draft picks have won titles before leaving their original teams — which is a data point that runs counter to prevailing conventional wisdom about how you build a contender. It doesn't invalidate the conventional wisdom, but it certainly complicates it, I should think.

For those who aren't interested in reading the longish article linked in 2418, here's why it might make more sense to extend Brown now even if you think a trade is ultimately the way to go:

The quick answer would be to trade Brown while he still has a year on his contract but it’s not that simple. While the Celtics can extend his contract at 35% of the cap, any other team that’s over-the-cap and acquires him could not do the same. They could extend him to a contract at nearly 30% of the cap but they could not do it for six months after acquiring him, meaning they would have to trade for him with no guarantee of being able to retain him beyond one season, and he would probably decline that and wait for the offseason to get rid of the incentive-based compensation in his current deal. It’s not impossible to trade someone under those circumstances but your return will be less than ideal.

2426. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: May 30, 2023 at 03:29 PM (#6130795)

He's useful still, particularly for a team that doesn't have high-end playoff expectations. A place with a couple of very young good players on rookie deals that needs to get better at defence right away? I can see it.

I’m a nominal Charlottefan and totally agree with this. They should be focused on putting useful players around LaMelo to convince him to stay, and Towns and/or Gobert would both be instant upgrades.

2427. PJ Martinez Posted: May 30, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6130796)

Footnote to the top-draft-picks-and-titles discussion above: Duncan and Wade are two of the oldest top draft picks of the past few decades.

2428. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 30, 2023 at 04:01 PM (#6130798)

Has anyone brought up how funny it is that the Celtics of all teams lost the series as the clearly more talented team due to 3P variance? They lost their ability to affect wide open threes!

I really am not sure what to think of Jaylen Brown. I thought picking him was dumb and doubted him up until he broke out and I was clearly just wrong. But even still I think his defense often is overrated (but still good) but he just creates nothing for anyone else. I think I'd give him a max still but would not even consider a super max and I don't think I'd trade good assets for him to have to pay him the max.

2429. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2023 at 04:16 PM (#6130801)

This is sort of interesting, also from Ryan Bernardoni (on Twitter), who wrote the piece linked above:
We're guaranteed to go another year where the NBA champ is not led by one of their own top-5 picks.

We'll stay at only SIX top-5 picks winning a title without having to first leave their drafting team since 1990.

There are 29 active players who meet the draft criteria.

The six players are two superstars (Duncan and Wade) one second star (Kyrie) one role player (T Thompson) and two passengers (Darko and Wiseman).

It has been very difficult to build from the top of the lottery to a title in the last 30 years.

free agency is a hell of a drug.

Right, but those guys were drafted in the eighties, not the nineties, so it holds that, starting in the nineties, very few of the very top draft picks have won titles before leaving their original teams — which is a data point that runs counter to prevailing conventional wisdom about how you build a contender. It doesn't invalidate the conventional wisdom, but it certainly complicates it, I should think.

how to win a championship:

-- be located in california or taxes (19 of the last 30 NBA titles)
-- have lebron (4), jordan (6), duncan (5), steph (4), or kobe (5) (24 of the last 31 NBA titles)
-- get really ####### lucky (9 of the last 31 NBA titles)

2430. The Honorable Ardo Posted: May 30, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6130802)

I don't think Jaylen Brown is one of the top 20 players in the NBA, so I wouldn't pay him as if he were. He tops out as "best player on a bad team."

2431. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: May 30, 2023 at 04:19 PM (#6130803)

Trade KAT: Try to fix the really poor-fitting roster and get some assets back. He can't be traded for a while yet (after the draft I think), but this is the best chance for the team to restock and try for pieces that fit better, while hopefully preventing Cap apocalypse. This option is not likely, but is most wolves fans preference, not because KAT is hated, but if there is a shake up to be done, this is the obvious place to start.

What about KAT for Giddey? This would get Minny out of cap hell and the impossible financial situation they'd find themselves in one year from now, while adding a 20-year-old playmaking forward who can distribute a heck of a lot better than any of the Wolves' starters under the age of 35. Replacing 27-year-old KAT with Giddey gives Minny an incredibly fun and incredibly young core along with Ant (21) and McDaniels (22). OKC could throw in a couple non-premium picks (they have a few dozen) to give the Wolves a bit more ability to maneuver and improve the roster otherwise. Maybe they can make a run with Gobert and Conley, and if not, they can readily pivot toward the future.

From OKC's perspective, they have a boatload of cap space while not exactly being a hot free agent destination. Chet Holmgren probably can't hold up as a center unless or until he packs on a bunch of weight/strength (if he can), so having KAT take those matchups while Chet roams as a weakside shot-blocker makes a lot of sense. Despite the strong start to his career, Giddey currently might be OKC's third best option as a primary initiator under the age of 25. Beyond SGA, did anyone notice what Jalen Williams was doing in the latter part of his rookie year? Post-ASB he averaged 19 points a game on 64% TS, with 4.3 assists to just 1.8 turnovers. All three of those guys can handle, pass, and score in the paint, whereas none is a high volume 3-point shooter. Replacing Giddey with KAT reduces the duplication of skills while opening up more space for everyone.

2432. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: May 30, 2023 at 04:22 PM (#6130804)

The flip side of the stat about top five picks is the raw number of titles.

1. In the last 10 years, 8 championships have been won by LeBron, Steph or Tim Duncan teams.
2. Steph was a #7 overall with his original team. So the whole #5 overall thing is kind of cherry picking.
3. So the question is still how do we identify the guys with the juice.
4. The easiest way to get a meeting with the guys with the juice is to draft them. Milwaukee gets to have a meeting with Giannis because they drafted him. San Antonio gets the meeting with Duncan, but not LeBron.
5. All that said, being at the top of the draft is overrated, in part because it's really hard to identify who in advance are the guys with the juice.
6. So I agree and disagree with the point. The draft is still the best way to build, but you have to be good at it. If you're good at it, you don't have to be at the top.

2433. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: May 30, 2023 at 04:23 PM (#6130805)

I don't think trading KAT for bad players is the answer.

2434. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: May 30, 2023 at 05:25 PM (#6130814)

I actually haven't really seen much analysis of Game 7 on the court, especially given the narrative spotlight. I think everyone realizes the Tatum injury was the main plot and it's not really worth trying to pick it apart. I sure hope nobody is talking about Boston giving up, the Celtics tried their hearts out, but between variance and Tatum it just didn't add up.

2435. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 30, 2023 at 05:27 PM (#6130815)

The Celtics just lack killer instinct. (That's a joke, BTW)

2436. DCA Posted: May 30, 2023 at 05:36 PM (#6130816)

Jaylen Brown for Towns solves all the problems, no?

2437. rr: over-entitled starf@ck3r Posted: May 30, 2023 at 05:42 PM (#6130817)

I haven't been reading or listening to the immediate post-mortems, but it seems crazy to me that any account of Game 7 wouldn't begin with Tatum getting seriously hurt on the first possession.

That is largely a Boston fan interpretation IMO. He was clearly hampered, but he still went 41 minutes and they lost by 19 at home. If he had been carried off the court, his replacements has been awful, and they had lost by 1, then that would have been the focus. Also, as you referenced, Miami was 14/28 on 3s and Boston was 9/42.

Comments on Brown/spivey/villageidiom: Given the length and breadth of the thread, the vast majority of comments refer to the last 2-3 pages. spivey did note that it was not an idea that originated with him.

Brown: As I have conceded, I underrated both Brown and Tatum as scorers, and that is the main reason that this Boston team is better than I thought it would be. As to keeping Brown, I would be very reluctant to let him walk if I ran Boston in spite of his weaknesses and the big payout. I think they need to tweak the roster 3-6 and hope for better 3P luck next year.

or kobe (5)

I would add O'Neal to this line of conversation: consensus #1 pick who also made the Finals in Orlando and Miami and won as a support guy to Wade in Miami.

2438. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 30, 2023 at 06:04 PM (#6130819)

Jaylen Brown for Towns solves all the problems, no?

I weirdly have no sense for Brown. It is like my brain turns off when I am watching him. I have no idea if he would fit better or worse on the Wolves. I don't think he helps with the Salary Cap situation though.

In the new CBA, you essentially don't get to have three max players, and with Ant on his way to being a max player, you have to get rid of either Towns or Gobert and not replace them with another max player.

Yes, I am simplifying it a bit.

2439. Tom and Shivs couples counselor Posted: May 30, 2023 at 06:39 PM (#6130823)

As a Bucks fan whose team lost a chance at the ECF because the 3 point shooting went to #### at the worst possible time I wonder if the Celtics handle this differently than Milwaukee mgt.

2440. The Honorable Ardo Posted: May 30, 2023 at 06:58 PM (#6130826)

Dunno if Brown-for-Towns works from a CBA/cap perspective, but it would instantly make both teams significantly better.

Towns would do all the things for Boston that Al Horford is too old & slow to do anymore, Derrick White would get starter's minutes, and an Ant/McDaniels/Slow-Mo/Brown/Gobert starting five would pose difficult problems to opponents at both ends of the court.

2441. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: May 30, 2023 at 07:45 PM (#6130830)

The problem with Brown is that his eyes are much too close together.

2442. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 30, 2023 at 08:18 PM (#6130832)

an Ant/McDaniels/Slow-Mo/Brown/Gobert starting five would pose difficult problems to opponents at both ends of the court

And also would have a playmaking deficit, especially if anything at all happens to limit slo-mo, because that is not a great passing group. I think in a few years and with enough playmaking around him Point Ant can absolutely work. I am not sure this soon or with that group around him.

2443. rr: over-entitled starf@ck3r Posted: May 30, 2023 at 08:20 PM (#6130833)

What I find most impressive about Riley is that he’s the antithesis of a system guy. He finds the best players he can get for every era, using the tools of that era. Even as an old man he’s still cutting edge and evolving. For my money he’s better than Belichick

.

When Riley has come up here in the past, I have said that the most impressive part of his career IMO is what he did in NY, even though they did not win the title. But adapting from Showtime to the BullyBall Knicks and from the 80s to the 90s showed a lot of adaptability, as you point out.

In terms of what is going on now, when Miami signed Butler, I said that Butler would fit in very well with a Riley/Spoelstra operation since Riley really values toughness--sometimes overly so (e.g. Brian Grant). Butler gives a vibe of being a very mentally tough guy, and since they signed him in the summer of 2019 they have made two Finals and one conference finals, and even though they probably will not win a title this year, and the rest of his deal could be ugly (52M player option for 25/26), I think it was clearly worth it and that Butler has had more of an impact than many anticipated.

2444. DCA Posted: May 30, 2023 at 08:24 PM (#6130834)

And also would have a playmaking deficit, especially if anything at all happens to limit slo-mo, because that is not a great passing group.

It looks better if you include Conley, who is on the team next year.

2445. Hombre Brotani

Posted: May 30, 2023 at 08:26 PM (#6130835)

The problem with Brown is that his eyes are much too close together.

That's how you know he's a solitary predator. He can't be expected to be a distributor.

2446. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 30, 2023 at 08:30 PM (#6130837)

It looks better if you include Conley, who is on the team next year.

Oh sure, but not in the starting line-up listed. I mean if that trade happened (Editor: It will not happen) slo-mo probably goes to the bench and Conley starts, so yeah.

2447. PJ Martinez Posted: May 30, 2023 at 08:46 PM (#6130839)

Towns would do all the things for Boston that Al Horford is too old & slow to do anymore

Did Towns become a great defender while I wasn't looking? Towns would be Boston's best three-point shooter, and second-best offensive player overall, but my sense (based, admittedly, to a significant degree on reputation — I've watched Towns some but not a ton) is that this would come at a pretty serious cost to the defense. I don't think it's a terrible trade in a vacuum, but a center who doesn't help defensively is just a tough fit for a team trying to win a title.

2448. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 30, 2023 at 09:08 PM (#6130843)

Did Towns become a great defender while I wasn't looking?

Umm, no. The season before last he was part of a pretty good defense, but Towns is still kind of bad in Drop (he was pretty good in the high wall defense they ran). And he was OK enough* on defense this last year with Gobert. Their half-court defense was pretty good. Especially (IMO, didn't look at the numbers) once DLo was gone.

* Except in transition. Dear lord their transition defense was bad, and a fair amount of that was having both Gobert and Towns "running" back on defense in transition.

2449. jmurph Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:06 AM (#6130879)

Story I feel like the rest of you will find amusing:

I was camping with my kids and dad this weekend in a state park in Celtics fan territory. I am... not a camper, to put it mildly. Straight up can't sleep in a tent. But I am, alas, both the father and son of the year, so I have obligations.

So I'm laying with my kids Saturday night in a tent, Game 6, they're snoozing and I'm reading a book on my phone (my dad is snoring away in a camper trailer deal, further adding to my inability to sleep). I'm ignoring the game because I can't watch it anyway and assume the Celtics will lose. I finally break down and check the score (no video, crappy cell reception obviously, just the auto-updating score), see they're up 2 with like 3 point whatever seconds left. I have no idea of the circumstances but immediately think "oh Butler will definitely hit a three to win the series, obviously." Seconds later it autoupdates to show the Heat are indeed now ahead by 1. I put my phone down and attempt to go to sleep. Moments later I hear a distant yell from somewhere else in the campground that sounded more "happy" than "a bear is attacking me" so I quickly checked the score again to see that they won. Crazy times. Still couldn't sleep (maybe an hour over the course of the night).

Unfortunately I did get to watch game 7. Blurgh.

2450. jmurph Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6130880)

I've got no really smart takes, but to recap:
- Agree with everyone that Brown will be overpaid in his next deal, whether he gets the full supermax or not. His handle has been trash for years (I speculated a while ago in this thread that he has small hands but I think someone corrected me?). It looked better at times in the regular season but he clearly fell back to earth. All this said, he's still very good and will presumably get the deal, it's just how these things seem to end up playing out. I generally have faith in the front office's ability to put together a good team and am confident they'll figure it out over time, but there's absolutely a chance the supermax ends up crippling them in a couple years.
- Obviously game 7 was massively disappointing but I can't imagine a home team wins too many series after dropping the first two at home, so that's still my main source of frustration vs the across the board failure in game 7.
- I think we all knew, deep down, that Caleb Martin was the best player on the Heat, and perhaps the best player in the entire conference.
- The Celtics can't really fire Mazzulla and go to their 4th coach in 4 years, I don't think? If there was a mistake there it was removing the interim tag, but that's mostly hindsight I guess.
- Heat in three in the Finals.

2451. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:21 AM (#6130882)

Here's one I thought of at drop off this morning -- is Jaylen Brown better than Andrew Wiggins?

2452. jmurph Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:18 AM (#6130888)

Brown has several years better than Wiggins's best, and he's more than a year younger. Wiggins has only been approaching average as a player as a fairly low usage guy who is asked to do very little. I don't think that's particularly close.

2453. DCA Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:29 AM (#6130889)

I think Brown is pretty clearly better than Wiggins as a complete package. But I could see a specific team construct preferring Wiggins's skill mix or value (he's making significantly less than the max going forward).

GSW-era Wiggins does two important things better than Brown: catch and shoot 3's and turnover-generating defense. For a team that doesn't need a #1 or #2 scoring option, I could see preferring the overall lesser player with those specific strengths.

2454. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:33 AM (#6130891)

Also, if you're paying Brown the ULTRAMAX, you need to have creation and someone without stone hands to handle the ball, right? It's less about Brown and Wiggins in a context-free vacuum and more about team construction, or at least, that's the interesting question to me.

2455. jmurph Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:39 AM (#6130892)

Brown also has a better career 3pt% (neither are great). Weirdly terrible from the corners the last two seasons, though.

2456. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6130898)

unpopular opinion:

i actually like that there are two off days between each finals game. it allows each game to become a bigger event, with a bigger build up. it gives both teams more practice time to implement adjustments. it gives players, who at this stage of the playoffs, tend to be older and have more mileage, more time to recover between games, so that they might actually be at their best. i think there are more positives to it than negatives.

bonus unpopular opinion:

i also think games 2, 3 and 4 should be played as a 3 games in 4 nights package, for the exact opposite reasons as above. it would test organization strength in a diametrically different way, and it would give us the best/worst of both options, which is something i think is funny.

i guess some people really do just want to see the world burn.

2457. DCA Posted: May 31, 2023 at 12:24 PM (#6130905)

i also think games 2, 3 and 4 should be played as a 3 games in 4 nights package

why not games 1-4 in 5 days (1-2 back-to-back, travel day, 3-4 back-to-back)? Basically, one team can sweep before there is time to rest/adjust. For the bonus games, you get time to recover and strategize.

2458. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6130908)

why not games 1-4 in 5 days (1-2 back-to-back, travel day, 3-4 back-to-back)? Basically, one team can sweep before there is time to rest/adjust. For the bonus games, you get time to recover and strategize.

i think that goes too far, but it would be kind of funny, so....

2459. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 31, 2023 at 01:31 PM (#6130917)

I think Denver wins, pretty much no matter the format. Of course, I have not yet picked the Heat yet in a series (I was unsure between Knicks and Heat), so I might not be the best judge of these things.

2460. The Honorable Ardo Posted: May 31, 2023 at 08:01 PM (#6130969)

It's not that Miami is doomed, but A) Jokic is playing at a level I've only seen before from Jordan and LeBron and B) Adebayo is giving up 3 inches and 40 pounds to him - if Gobert, Ayton, and Davis couldn't stop him, Bam can't.

I would not be shocked to see Omer Yurtseven brought out of storage and playing meaningful minutes in the Finals. He's potentially their best defensive option against Jokic.

2461. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: May 31, 2023 at 08:47 PM (#6130977)

It's probably going to be Kevin Love as the primary defender.

2462. Rally Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:21 PM (#6130979)

My record of picking these games… I’ve saved a lot of money by NOT having one of these sports gambling accounts that the leagues are trying to push down our throats.

But I’ll pick Miami in 7. They’ll find a way.

2463. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:26 PM (#6130980)

My record of picking these games… I’ve saved a lot of money by NOT having one of these sports gambling accounts that the leagues are trying to push down our throats.

it's just a few mortgage payments. what could possibly go wrong?

2464. asinwreck Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:37 PM (#6130982)

No. The player who will step in and stop the Joker is the only logical candidate: Udonis Haslem will log 40 minutes a night to cap off his career with a championship.

2465. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: May 31, 2023 at 09:58 PM (#6130984)

I think it's different than just Denver is better than Miami. Boston was better than Miami, but you could see the potential issues against the zone (many called it out pre series) and overall the Boston offense is absolutely stoppable.

But, like, I really don't see any narrative with Denver barring something really singular like a Jokic injury. I just see absolutely no way for Miami to defend Denver. I think the Bucks or Sixers would have had a really good shot, this isn't just a Denver is unstoppable take. But it's not even the quality, it's just the shape of the team and of course relative to Jokic in particular.

And the other way to beat Denver is to just outscore them, we saw Booker do this a couple times. Miami can't do that either.

2466. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:21 PM (#6130985)

I agree with #2465. Denver's offense is really great and specifically Jokic destroys zones, and between that and the size advantage I don't know how Miami keeps up. Plus Denver has the altitude advantage, which seems to really help them with the first game in the series (well that and Miami is tired and Denver is tanned, rested, and ready).

Denver in 5.

2467. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:30 PM (#6130987)

Monty Williams gets 6 years 72 million (!!!) to coach the Detroit Pistons, which is, um, surprising.

2468. Hombre Brotani

Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:38 PM (#6130989)

Plus Denver has the altitude advantage, which seems to really help them with the first game in the series (well that and Miami is tired and Denver is tanned, rested, and ready).

I wonder if the Nugs will be at all rusty. It's been about 17 years since they last played.

I'm curious to see what the Heat throw at Jokic. I don't think the Heat goes zone, maybe just try and shut down Murray and the shooters, and see what happens? It's tough to see how the Heat beat them, but then, it was tough to see how the Heat got past anyone this postseason and they keep doing it.

2469. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:39 PM (#6130990)

2470. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:39 PM (#6130991)

12 million a year? Good gig. Especially if you like an endless supply of bigs. They should draft another center, just to be sure.

2471. nick swisher hygiene Posted: May 31, 2023 at 10:40 PM (#6130992)

I think Spo has his guys believing, and Denver is a weird enough team that he'll be able to come up with some kind of twist to affect at least one game significantly.
That said, I do think the matchup of personnel looks not so good for the Heat. Denver in 6.

2472. Russlan is not Russian Posted: May 31, 2023 at 11:20 PM (#6130995)

I absolutely think this is a good and expected hire for the Pistons. But making Monty Williams the highest paid coach in the league? 6 years? Were they negotiating against someone (Raptors?) Is Detroit just that awful a place to live?

I think more than anything else the Detroit job is not considered very desirable. They have averaged 20 wins over the last 4 years and they have not been out of the first round since 2008. They have some young players, recent lottery pecks, but no one is considered to surefire star. Detroit is about her up but I am not sure it is any worse than other cities such as Cleveland, Milwaukee, or Minnesota. It is not LA or Miami. I think a lot of people look at Detroit has a dysfunctional franchise and that makes it hard to track start even when they have capspace to pay them. A lot of people in the Detroit media feel that getting Williams makes them look like a competent franchise. That is why the premium was paid.

2473. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: June 01, 2023 at 12:17 AM (#6131003)

I think more than anything else the Detroit job is not considered very desirable. They have averaged 20 wins over the last 4 years and they have not been out of the first round since 2008. They have some young players, recent lottery pecks, but no one is considered to surefire star. Detroit is about her up but I am not sure it is any worse than other cities such as Cleveland, Milwaukee, or Minnesota. It is not LA or Miami. I think a lot of people look at Detroit has a dysfunctional franchise and that makes it hard to track start even when they have capspace to pay them. A lot of people in the Detroit media feel that getting Williams makes them look like a competent franchise. That is why the premium was paid.

a point that is immediately undercut by the amount of money they reportedly paid him.

12 million a year? Good gig. Especially if you like an endless supply of bigs. They should draft another center, just to be sure.

newsletter?

2474. Rally Posted: June 01, 2023 at 07:00 AM (#6131017)

I don’t know how much other coaches are paid. 12 million a year seems a ton unless you are the modern version of Phil Jackson. But in a league where top salaries can reach 60 million now, maybe it’s not so bad. Anyone know how much Spo makes? I’d think this is the floor for his next contract.

2475. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: June 01, 2023 at 07:13 AM (#6131018)

I mean, it's smart as hell to spend big on the non-salary cap stuff, it seems to me. Whether Williams is the right dude is a different question but the dollar amount, if paired with other spending, seems totally unproblematic to me.

2476. jmurph Posted: June 01, 2023 at 07:28 AM (#6131020)

I don’t know how much other coaches are paid. 12 million a year seems a ton unless you are the modern version of Phil Jackson. But in a league where top salaries can reach 60 million now, maybe it’s not so bad. Anyone know how much Spo makes?

They don't often leak, dollars or years. Same with front office positions. But ESPN says this one is the biggest contract in the league.

I think generally if you have to go to a record contract over 6 years to convince a guy, he's probably not the right guy.

2477. asinwreck Posted: June 01, 2023 at 08:21 AM (#6131025)

At least $5 of Monty Williams's new contract should go towards a nice card thanking Mat Ishbia for firing him.

12 million a year? Good gig. Especially if you like an endless supply of bigs. They should draft another center, just to be sure.

Perhaps they can trade for Ayton.

2478. Paul d mobile Posted: June 01, 2023 at 09:11 AM (#6131030)

Rumours are that the Raptors are going to hire Sergio Scariolo, and Simmons is convinced that the Suns are hiring one of their assistants. Does that mean Bud sits on the sidelines for a bit? (Of course, if I was Nurse or Bud, and could take millions to take a year off and do a little tv, I'd 100% do that. One of the many reasons I'm not a high flying coach or exec).

2479. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2023 at 11:20 AM (#6131045)

Atlanta would have been an interesting spot for Bud. Minnesota too. He’d do well at these teams that need to take the first step of just being good in the regular season.

2480. tshipman (The Viscount of Variance)

Posted: June 01, 2023 at 11:24 AM (#6131047)

Anyone know how much Spo makes? I’d think this is the floor for his next contract.

Yahoo says that Pop makes 11.5 and Spo makes 8.5. Kerr is the other guy at the top of the market at 9.5.

Paying Williams something like 30-50% more than the best coaches in the league is certainly a strategy.

2481. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 01, 2023 at 12:30 PM (#6131056)

Atlanta would have been an interesting spot for Bud.

Heh.

2482. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 01, 2023 at 01:48 PM (#6131063)

2483. DCA Posted: June 01, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6131064)

Simmons is convinced that the Suns are hiring one of their assistants.

This seems unwise, given Durant's recent history of burning coaches. I think the Suns would be well-advised to hire someone with gravitas who can stand up to star player. That's not normally in my consideration set, but given the Suns roster and timeline I think it would be close to the top of the list here. Bud, Vogel, and Rivers all have championships and experience with MVP-level players and would qualify on that front.

2484. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: June 01, 2023 at 02:09 PM (#6131066)

Are we doing a mock draft this year, at least a first round? I'll take the Pacers.

1. San Antonio
2. Charlotte
3. Portland
4. Houston
5. Detroit
6. Orlando
7. Indiana - Votto:
8. Washington
9. Utah
10. Dallas
11. Orlando (from Chicago)
12. Oklahoma City
13. Toronto
14. New Orleans

15. Atlanta
16. Utah (from Minnesota)
17. Los Angeles Lakers
18. Miami
19. Golden State
20. Houston (from LA Clippers)
21. Brooklyn (from Phoenix)
22. Brooklyn
23. Portland (from New York)
24. Sacramento
25. Memphis
26. Indiana (from Cleveland) - Votto:
27. Charlotte (from Denver via New York and Oklahoma City)
28. Utah (from Philadelphia via Brooklyn)
29. Indiana (from Boston)
30. LA Clippers (from Milwaukee via Houston)

Second Round: Picks 31-58

31. Detroit
32. Indiana (from Houston)
33. San Antonio
34. Charlotte (from Charlotte via Philadelphia and Atlanta)
35. Boston (from Portland via Atlanta, LA Clippers, Detroit, and Cleveland)
36. Orlando
37. Oklahoma City (from Washington via New Orleans)
38. Sacramento (from Indiana)
39. Charlotte (from Utah via New York)
40. Denver (from Dallas via Oklahoma City)
41. Charlotte (from Oklahoma City via New York and Boston)
42. Washington (from Chicago via Los Angeles Lakers and Washington)
43. Portland (from Atlanta)
44. San Antonio (from Toronto)
45. Memphis (from Minnesota)
46. Atlanta (from New Orleans)
47. Los Angeles Lakers
48. LA Clippers
49. Cleveland (from Golden State via Utah and New Orleans)
50. Oklahoma City (from Miami via Boston, Memphis, and Dallas)
51. Brooklyn
52. Phoenix
53. Minnesota (from New York via Charlotte)
54. Sacramento
55. Indiana (from Cleveland via Milwaukee and Detroit)
56. Memphis
— Chicago (from Denver via Cleveland; forfeited by Chicago)
— Philadelphia (forfeited)
57. Washington (from Boston via Charlotte)
58. Milwaukee

2485. Rally Posted: June 01, 2023 at 02:24 PM (#6131070)

Bud, Vogel, and Rivers all have championships and experience with MVP-level players and would qualify on that front.

Of the 3, I’d go with Bud. Vogel is a good coach at coming up with a defensive plan. And there were no problems on the personnel front when things were going right. But he really lost the team towards the end. I don’t think he’s the guy who’s going to command respect from the superstars.

Doc Rivers did run into some problems towards the end with the 76ers, but he’s got some advantages over Vogel in this respect. For one, he’s been at it longer, and two, he played in the league. Biggest thing I’d want to look into is if he’s on the same page as CP3, the star on that team that he has some history with.

2486. JJ1986 Posted: June 01, 2023 at 02:32 PM (#6131071)

Are we doing a mock draft this year, at least a first round? I'll take the Pacers.

I'll take Brooklyn.

2487. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2023 at 02:38 PM (#6131072)

I think the Las Vegas Aces could be historically good.

2488. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 01, 2023 at 03:01 PM (#6131081)

As I said before I will take any team in the draft (or real life actually).

2489. DCA Posted: June 01, 2023 at 03:27 PM (#6131086)

I've done GSW the last 3 years, but if sardonic wants them back I'd be happy to take Spurs or any other team really.

2490. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 01, 2023 at 03:36 PM (#6131090)

Denver in 6. Would say 5 but I do agree that Spo and Butler are gonna take an extra game.

2491. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: June 01, 2023 at 03:48 PM (#6131092)

I've got Orlando, obviously.

2492. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 01, 2023 at 03:51 PM (#6131094)

I'll take Jazz if nobody else wants them. But if someone who actually follows college does, I'm happy to let them have the Jazz.

2493. NJ in NJ Posted: June 01, 2023 at 04:47 PM (#6131112)

I think the Las Vegas Aces could be historically good.

All offseason was spent discussing how great Kelsey, A'ja, Candace and Chelsea would be...and then Jackie Young is turning out better than all of them. An obnoxious amount of talent on one team.

2494. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: June 01, 2023 at 05:01 PM (#6131116)

the NBA is investigating, and Lewis won't be allowed back onto an NBA court until next season, if at all. "Regarding Eric Lewis and the social media posts, we are continuing to review the matter and he will not be working the finals," NBA spokesman Mike Bass said. The crews that will work the Finals are populated by the league's most experienced referees (Scott Foster, Ed Malloy, Bill Kennedy), some of its best (Zach Zarba and Marc Davis), and Tony Brothers (Tony Brothers)

2495. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: June 01, 2023 at 05:44 PM (#6131133)

Denver in 6. Would say 5 but I do agree that Spo and Butler are gonna take an extra game.

I mean, for me that's why the series gets to 5.

2496. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: June 01, 2023 at 05:55 PM (#6131138)

All offseason was spent discussing how great Kelsey, A'ja, Candace and Chelsea would be...and then Jackie Young is turning out better than all of them. An obnoxious amount of talent on one team.

It's pretty crazy that, in a sport where 5 people are on the court at once, the WNBA has a max salary and a salary cap and the salary cap is >5x the max salary.

WNBA as a product is pretty good these days, much better than even ~5 years ago. I wonder what it will take to make it accelerate commercially. The salary cap for a WNBA team is literally lower than the minimum NBA salary for a single player with 1 year of experience.

2497. DCA Posted: June 01, 2023 at 06:20 PM (#6131142)

All offseason was spent discussing how great Kelsey, A'ja, Candace and Chelsea would be...and then Jackie Young is turning out better than all of them.

Jackie Young was a #1 overall pick, an all-star, the league's most improved player, and probably the second best player on last year's team (after MVP A'ja). She should have been right in the middle of any offseason discussion.

2498. DCA Posted: June 01, 2023 at 06:21 PM (#6131143)

I mean, for me that's why the series gets to 5.

Yeah, me too.

2499. Hombre Brotani

Posted: June 01, 2023 at 06:23 PM (#6131145)

I'll take San Antonio. First thing I'm gonna do? Trade the #1 pick to the Lakers for D'Angelo Russell.

We're cool with that, right?

Never mind. I'll take the Lakers again.

2500. smileyy Posted: June 01, 2023 at 07:19 PM (#6131151)

The salary cap for a WNBA team is literally lower than the minimum NBA salary for a single player with 1 year of experience.

My back of the envelope math suggests that the total of all WNBA player salaries is less than that of a supermax player. Pretty sure John Wall who sat out the 2022 season who got paid more than the WNBA.

Also it is hard af to make a WNBA roster. I guess that increases the "quality" of the league and also it is disillusioning to college basketball fans wanting to see their star player in the W.

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