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Monday, January 09, 2023
I estimate that this new thread should have been posted 10-12 days ago, at least.
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This is fun. The East:
59 Celtics
50 Sixers
50 Bucks
49 Cavaliers
48 Nets
46 Heat
43 Knicks
43 Hawks
39 Bulls
39 Pacers
38 Raptors
37 Wizards
29 Magic
26 Hornets
22 Pistons
The pileup between 3-12 is a bit more stratified: I see two tiers, but there's only a blurry line in between. I don't put much faith in any individual projection here, but the big picture seems about right: the fight to nail down a play-in seed will be a bloodbath in both conferences. The last month of the season is going to be very fun for neutral observers.
East - Haliburton, Wagner, Anunoby, Claxton, Kuzma, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson, Hield, Turner, Derrick White, Tobias Harris, Marcus Smart
West - Markkanen, SGA, Edwards, Gordon, J Jackson, Fox, Mikal Bridges, Clarkson, Harrison Barnes, Sengun, Jaden McDaniels, Jamal Murray
I think West would win that by a lot if it was a real game.
One of the most sour parts of the Gobert trade is looking at how well built the team would be if they just sat that one out. Ant and McDaniels are growing into awesome players who will both fit really well with KAT. Russell has an expiring contract, then you have interesting role players like McLaughlin, Nowell, Reid, Garza in addition to the traded guys like Vanderbilt and Beasley. Kessler looks like he could be the shot-blocking big they wanted anyway, and having that Joe Smith-sized draft pick haul still in the hopper would be quite useful.
Also, Ant had two gorgeous dunks on Sengun (one of my personal favorite non-Wolves) this weekend.
To PHX: VanVleet
To SAC: Siakam, Crowder
To TOR: Mitchell, Murray, Barnes, Holmes, Saric, 2023 first from PHX, 2026 and 2028 firsts from SAC
Nunn had a couple of promising years in Miami, but he hasn't panned out since then. This is actually a trade I kind of like for both teams. Lakers get a more stable rotation player, Wizards get a buy-low candidate and what will probably be some early 2nd round picks.
The easiest thing in the world would have been to have a consolidation year. They went from 23 to 46 wins. See what you have the next year and you have knowledge about the young players, a clean cap sheet, and tons of assets in order to move forward. Instead ....
It is just infuriating and I am convinced it was ownership that insisted on doing it.
Everytime I see the Wiz I think Hachimura looks good, though the numbers aren't particularly impressive. He's an RFA after this year, but it's a low QO.
If they give up the 2nds and just let him walk then this is probably a dumb trade, but otherwise he's almost certainly going to contribute more than Nunn would have.
The Wolves weren't actually that good last year. Ya, ya, 46 wins, but it was based on a pretty unsustainable turnover rate on defense and near perfect health.
Specifically, the team was godawful at rebounding, fouled a ton, and wasn't really elite at anything besides offensive rebounding. However, they also had a bunch of guys who need the ball to be effective in Edwards, Towns and Russell.
Who could you add to the team who helps with rebounding, doesn't demand the ball, and has an all-NBA impact? That's how you end up with the Gobert trade.
***
I guess he works to play with Russ and Thomas Bryant? I mean, he's better than Nunn. I don't really think that he can play with LeBron and AD at the same time.
This is where I'm at. I was also thinking that if they were going to make an offer like that, why not try for, I don't know, Siakam?
Fortunately that's not a problem the Lakers frequently have.
Who says no:
Mavs: Luka
Lottery Winner: 1-1 pick
Maybe this is a hot take, but I don't think Wemby should be considered a generational prospect. I would draft Scoot over him.
The Mavs would not trade Luka because that trade would be three quarters on the dollar.
The Rockets would not trade that package for Luka because their roster would be terribly suited to contention and he'd ask out immediately.
Luka would use all leverage at his disposal to avoid the trade because it would put him farther away from contention.
Like, I get the theoretical thought experiment angle, but these trades basically never happen because it's an awful idea to take a team that tanked and trade for a superstar absent extreme extenuating circumstances. It hasn't happened since 2007, and even in that instance, the Garnett trade happened after the Ray Allen trade (and Garnett was 30).
From the Athletic (Jovan Buha):
The Japanese native is shooting 33.7 percent on 3-point shots, a below-league-average figure, but he shot 44.7 percent from beyond the arc last season and 47.0 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. That indicates he could shoot better in Los Angeles with James, Davis and Westbrook creating higher-percentage looks for him.
Hachimura fares well in most defensive metrics, ranging from an above-average defender (plus-0.3 in defensive RAPTOR) to a good defender (plus-0.9 in defensive EPM). The video shows a talented and physically gifted defender who can improve his effort, consistency and awareness.
In theory, you have a guy who can be a 3 and D wing, which works well with LBJ/AD.
I'm fine with Wembanyama being a generational prospect, but I don't think I can get all the way there on his value to a franchise is $500mil+ or there's only 5-6 players you'd trade the #1 pick for. I still think there's a lot of questions on where he fits in on offense. You figure he improves there, but without elite dribbling and passing I think you're more likely to be AD on offense as a ceiling. Even Giannis, a better dribbler and passer than AD but far from elite at both, is having serious trouble running an effective offense this year as *the* initiator.
I see parallels in Luka's development to this stage of his career to Jordan through age 23. Not that he's going to be Jordan, but the ability to dominate as an individual while his team struggles to figure out how best to build around the talent reminds me a lot of the pre-Doug Collins Bulls. He has already built upon his immense potential, and he's shown his body can withstand the rigors of a regular season and postseason. (With Wembanyama, I worry that the Ralph Sampson comp might come into play. I hope to look back on this comment in five years and see it was unfounded.) Absent a health issue or intractable holdout, you don't trade that kind of player.
I don't disagree with most of this, but ...
They were a young team last year, with both obvious talent and obvious flaws, who had taken a big leap and even if they improved in many ways were likely to take a bit of a step back. But that is OK. Have a good look at the young kids and see what vets fit into the mix (Kyle Anderson was a brilliant move, for example).
Then at the end of this year you have a ton of assets, including talented young players who don't fit together great, cap flexibility, and basically, all your draft picks. You are in an ideal place to trade assets for assets and shape them into a better-fitting roster. Heck, you could even do it during the season if deals arose.
What you don't do is overpay for the big piece to push you into contention way too early. Gobert is not pushing them into contention. At best he pushes you into middle purgatory. Well unless Ant and Jaden go supernova, in which case you are cheating their timeline by bringing in Gobert anyway.
I mean what you lay out is the logic they probably followed, but it was dumb and maddening.
I'm wondering which years you would trade Luka for the 1.1 pick.
Kareem, LeBron, yeah obviously.
Probably Robinson and Shaq too.
That might be it. The next tier down (obvious best in class, better than most #1s, not obvious GOAT candidates at time of draft) is probably Duncan, Olajuwon, Ewing, Davis, Thompson, Sampson, Walton, Hayes, maybe a few others ... and I think I'd rather have Luka than most of those guys.
That LeBron surpassed that doesn't mean it's a safe bet.
I'm too young to remember the feeling at the time, but was Robinson really a more hyped prospect than Ewing?
Trading a current day Luka for Patrick Ewing would be a huge mistake, even if we let each player stay in their era.
I remember Robinson being special even in the context of the Sampson/Olajuwon/Ewing/Daughterty/Robinson run of 1.1 centers. The idea is that he - along with Kareem, LeBron, Shaq - were already top 10 or so players in the world at the time they were drafted. They weren't just potential, they were already there.
Fun fact: When he made his NBA debut, Robinson was older than Luka is now.
Injury updates:
Bobby Portis has an MCL strain and is ruled out for tonight. He's been excellent for the Bucks this year.
Zion "making progress" and his hamstring will be re-evaulated in two weeks.
Since turning 38, Lebron is putting up 36.1 ppg/9.5 rbg/8.3 apg on .533/.329/.794 shooting. He is avergaing nearly a point per minute.
Also, Jokic's on/off is insane at 20.8/
This season has been very frustrating, it feels like Milwaukee hasn't really played at full strength at all - the game against Detroit was one of the few games they did, and then immediately Portis gets hurt. Giannis and Middleton returned against Detroit and looked healthy. Portis said his injury wasn't serious after the Detroit game, so I'm thinking this may be precautionary.
The Bucks have kind of maintained a pretty good record via a lot of smoke and mirrors. But I think the second half of the season is important for them to get ready for the playoffs.
And then the organization managed to do it again 7 years later, after the one year Robinson missed due to injuries, with Tim Duncan - 21 PPG & 12 RPG and a 36 win improvement.
Robinson was really hard to get a handle on, because of the Navy service. Everyone knew he was amazing, but you had to wait, and would he keep his skills over time without playing? Would he possibly be put in danger during his military service? What if there was a war and he was called into service?
All that kind of overshadowed his actual being a prospect, though he was still taken #1 overall.
Yeah, but that 36 win improvement was from adding Duncan and Robinson.
Which means that Duncan was only +1 win. That's how it works, right?
robo-umps cannot get here soon enough.
1987: Mark Jackson, Reggie Miller, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, David Robinson. Okay, that's actually pretty good. Two top-30 players and another easy HOFer.
1985: Terry Porter, Joe Dumars, Chris Mullin, Karl Malone, Patrick Ewing. Probably the best team from this stretch- three Dream Teamers + another HOFer.
1986: Mark Price, Dell Curry, Ron Harper, Dennis Rodman, Brad Daugherty.
1988: Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Dan Majerle, Anthony Mason, Rik Smits or Rony Seikaly. Probably the weakest team of this stretch.
1989: Tim Hardaway, Glen Rice, Sean Elliott, Shawn Kemp, Vlade Divac.
1990: Gary Payton, Dennis Scott, Cedric Ceballos, Derrick Coleman, Elden Campbell.
So what team is Ben Simmons on next year?
I'm confident we were nearly all on the right side of history on this one.
Edit: I was definitely the most aggressive about shitting on the deal.
Selected comments:
my comment:
Edit:
jmurph was my hater's ball dance partner on this trade.
But, I stand by what I wrote.
One of my early posts:
And I think that basically is still true. I hope it was ownership, otherwise ... seen the team run by idiot GMs. It is not fun. I mean crazy ownership is not better, but we are totally used to bad ownership. <sob>
You were negative on the value, but positive on the on court results. Other quotes:
I like the MN enough to take the over. No idea how the playoffs go, but I think they are well set up for the regular season and unlike many teams they will want to pile up the regular season wins.
I was negative. I mean it says so right there - "my initial impression is negative".
I was willing to try to see what the upside was, why the trade was made. But, seriously I was was very clear. I have no clue why you are misrepresenting it, but whatever, you provided the link, people can read it for themselves.
"Yes the starting and backup QB for my team were injured, but I think the third string rookie drafted with the last pick this year will be pretty good!"
And sometimes, the optimism pays off. Not often, but sometimes. I mean you should be realistic, "it looks bad, but maybe" seems like a fine balance as does a general agnosticism.
I also enjoyed watching Ted Stepien's ownership of the Cavs, so there's that.
***
All star starters are out.
In the East: Giannis, Tatum, Durant, Kyrie, Donovan Mitchell.
Kyrie starting is kind of a joke, and I would have gone with Embiid over Giannis or Tatum.
In the West: LeBron, Steph, Luka, Jokic, Zion (!)
Zion has barely played more games than Anthony Davis. LeBron probably does not belong, but whatever, he's the GOAT or at least Co-GOAT.
I had absolutely no recollection, but I'm pretty pleased with the prognostication.
This is... still on the table, I think?
Agree that Embiid should be starting. I think Tatum is probably having a slightly better season than Giannis, but also Giannis is established as the better player, so I wouldn't argue either way on that one. Durant will presumably miss the game, so surely Embiid/Giannis/Tatum will end up starting anyway.
With Kyrie getting the start I think we can definitively rule out league shenanigans in this kind of thing, because there's no way in hell they want that guy as an All Star starter.
Professional sports trade? No chance. That is the Herschel Walker trade, now and forever.
Basketball trade? Possibly, but it is too early to tell honestly. Heck I could argue the Wolves trading away KG for a bag of beans was worse from a fan perspective (Yes, they did him a solid, but man that trade sucked), so I am not sure it is even the worst trade in franchise history.
Not the Ricky Williams trade? Or does that not count as it was technically a trade for a draft pick, not a player?
One of the beans could have been Curry, which would probably have changed the perception of the trade considerably.
The Babe Ruth for cash deal still looms large in the history of North American professional sports. In basketball, has anyone done an oral history of the Sixers getting Dr. J? The Nets being able to keep him upon entry to the NBA would have made the early 80s look far different in the East.
I was just referring to NBA trades.
Fair. I even wanted them to pick Curry. A rare time I was right in the draft.
That era of the NBA was rife with absolutely godawful trades.
Probably the worst trade in NBA history was when the New Orleans Jazz traded two first round picks and a second for the rights to sign 32 year old Gail Goodrich. One of those picks turned into Magic Johnson. Gail Goodrich played 3 more years and averaged 14 points per game for a Jazz team that missed the playoffs every year.
You have to era adjust NBA trades because owners did a lot of coke in the 70s and 80s.
Al Jefferson was obviously no KG, but he did have three pretty good years for the Wolves. Heck, Ryan Gomes wasn't terrible either. Those two plus the picks were not a great haul by any means, but there have been much, much worse trades - the KG/Pierce trade to the Nets being one.
(Which isn't to defend those deals, exactly, just to point out that proactively going out to get a guy in a monumentally bad deal is a different thing.)
I've mentioned my all-time worst draft take that John Henson would be 90% of AD, my second worst take is that Craig Smith would be a poor man's Charles Barkley, which I guess is technically true, since Smith did have a pretty good career for a 2nd round pick.
I submit the Hawks trading Bill Russell on draft day in 1956 for Cliff Hagan and Ed Macauley.
Edit: Here's some statistical evidence that Jackson's defense has genuinely been better at home this year. But twice as good? I'm not sure about that.
I think it raises a bigger issue as well. In that if the NBA and other American leagues want to get into bed with gambling, they really, really need to have independent scorekeepers and statisticians recording things, and not ones affiliated with the teams.
LeBron takes a clear 3 steps on a drive, Tatum hacks the crap out of his arm in what is probably one of the easiest calls to make since it was above the bodies and really, really clear.
No call on either--but there is a tech on Beverly for trying to show the ref the call on a camera.
That was terrible non-call at the end of the game. I get you can't have challenges every play and I am not sure that there's anything that can be done about it but that's a tough loss for the Lakers.
The thing I hate the most about modern big men is when they allow much smaller players play defense on them and not punish them. Malcolm Brogdon player 39 minutes, a lot of them being the primary defender against AD, and he killed the Lakers offensively. AD didn't do anything against him on the offensive end. AD is a finesse big man (finesse sometimes being the kindest word for soft) but you can't let a 6-4 prevent you from getting buckets as one of the premier bigs in the league. His inability to do so really cost the Lakers tonight.
I think the Lakers are a poorly coached team. The way they played the end of overtime was just horrible, the tech by Beverly is not something you need when you are trying to win a game in overtime, and this is not the first time they have made bad decisions down the stretch in a close game. Maybe it is just a sign of a bad team but you'd think a team with a lot of veteran players would be better at those types things.
I think the Lakers could be kind of interesting if they make the playoffs but I think they are going to have a hard time even making the play-in game.
Those points are valid but he did play very well up to those points. He scored 9 points in the 4th, and his put back dunk was an excellent and unexpected play. He had a really good game.
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