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Monday, January 09, 2023

2023 NBA Regular Season Thread

I estimate that this new thread should have been posted 10-12 days ago, at least.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: January 09, 2023 at 11:55 AM | 257 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, future first round picks, nba, off-topic

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   101. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 20, 2023 at 04:21 PM (#6113787)
And just to flip, not sure the Pelicans aren't going to fall into that morass if Ingram and Zion never play basketball ever again.
   102. smileyy Posted: January 20, 2023 at 04:45 PM (#6113792)
I love Luka and also I feel like taking the under, especially with Christian Wood being out for a while. They're just...not good. And I'm not sure where they go from here, because Luka will drag them out of the lottery for the foreseeable future.
   103. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: January 20, 2023 at 09:59 PM (#6113813)
Current Western conference win projections per 538

57 Grizzlies
56 Nuggets
47 Pelicans
44 Mavericks
43 Kings
43 Jazz

43 Suns
42 Warriors
40 Timberwolves
39 Clippers

39 Blazers
38 Thunder
37 Lakers
25 Spurs
18 Rockets

That mass from 4-13 is wild.


This is fun. The East:

59 Celtics
50 Sixers
50 Bucks
49 Cavaliers
48 Nets
46 Heat

43 Knicks
43 Hawks
39 Bulls
39 Pacers

38 Raptors
37 Wizards
29 Magic
26 Hornets
22 Pistons

The pileup between 3-12 is a bit more stratified: I see two tiers, but there's only a blurry line in between. I don't put much faith in any individual projection here, but the big picture seems about right: the fight to nail down a play-in seed will be a bloodbath in both conferences. The last month of the season is going to be very fun for neutral observers.
   104. asinwreck Posted: January 22, 2023 at 10:20 PM (#6113984)
   105. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 23, 2023 at 12:15 AM (#6113992)
Lakers beat Portland 121-112 despite being outscored 45-13 in the second quarter.
   106. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 23, 2023 at 08:35 AM (#6113999)
All Star Rosters if you based them entirely on dunksandthrees.com EPM wins and could only take first time All Stars:

East - Haliburton, Wagner, Anunoby, Claxton, Kuzma, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson, Hield, Turner, Derrick White, Tobias Harris, Marcus Smart

West - Markkanen, SGA, Edwards, Gordon, J Jackson, Fox, Mikal Bridges, Clarkson, Harrison Barnes, Sengun, Jaden McDaniels, Jamal Murray

I think West would win that by a lot if it was a real game.
   107. aberg Posted: January 23, 2023 at 09:43 AM (#6114002)
Edwards ... Jaden McDaniels


One of the most sour parts of the Gobert trade is looking at how well built the team would be if they just sat that one out. Ant and McDaniels are growing into awesome players who will both fit really well with KAT. Russell has an expiring contract, then you have interesting role players like McLaughlin, Nowell, Reid, Garza in addition to the traded guys like Vanderbilt and Beasley. Kessler looks like he could be the shot-blocking big they wanted anyway, and having that Joe Smith-sized draft pick haul still in the hopper would be quite useful.

Also, Ant had two gorgeous dunks on Sengun (one of my personal favorite non-Wolves) this weekend.

   108. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 23, 2023 at 10:28 AM (#6114006)
Portland has slumped all the way to 13th place at 21-25, they're only ahead of the tanking Spurs and Rockets. The Thunder have been playing well, they are 8-3 this month.
   109. DCA Posted: January 23, 2023 at 12:18 PM (#6114022)
Today in fake GM'ing. Raptors are selling (because they should), Kings are buying (this might be their best chance), and Suns are facilitating (because they have to shake things up)

To PHX: VanVleet
To SAC: Siakam, Crowder
To TOR: Mitchell, Murray, Barnes, Holmes, Saric, 2023 first from PHX, 2026 and 2028 firsts from SAC
   110. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 23, 2023 at 01:29 PM (#6114028)
The Washington Wizards are finalizing a trade to send forward Rui Hachimura to the Los Angeles Lakers for guard Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks, league sources told The Athletic on Monday. Here’s what you need to know:


Nunn had a couple of promising years in Miami, but he hasn't panned out since then. This is actually a trade I kind of like for both teams. Lakers get a more stable rotation player, Wizards get a buy-low candidate and what will probably be some early 2nd round picks.
   111. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 23, 2023 at 02:21 PM (#6114036)
One of the most sour parts of the Gobert trade is looking at how well built the team would be if they just sat that one out.


The easiest thing in the world would have been to have a consolidation year. They went from 23 to 46 wins. See what you have the next year and you have knowledge about the young players, a clean cap sheet, and tons of assets in order to move forward. Instead ....

It is just infuriating and I am convinced it was ownership that insisted on doing it.
   112. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2023 at 02:38 PM (#6114040)
The Washington Wizards are finalizing a trade to send forward Rui Hachimura to the Los Angeles Lakers for guard Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks, league sources told The Athletic on Monday.

Everytime I see the Wiz I think Hachimura looks good, though the numbers aren't particularly impressive. He's an RFA after this year, but it's a low QO.

If they give up the 2nds and just let him walk then this is probably a dumb trade, but otherwise he's almost certainly going to contribute more than Nunn would have.
   113. PJ Martinez Posted: January 23, 2023 at 03:52 PM (#6114052)
The Thunder have been playing well, they are 8-3 this month.
Same overall record as Golden State now! And a better point differential. I'm sure management wouldn't mind slipping into the lottery again, but there are already a lot of interesting players on the roster, and we'll see (one hopes) what Holmgren can do next year.
   114. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 23, 2023 at 08:01 PM (#6114086)
DEEE-TROIT BASKETBALL!
   115. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2023 at 08:35 PM (#6114093)
I think the process behind the Gobert trade is relatively easy to understand.

The Wolves weren't actually that good last year. Ya, ya, 46 wins, but it was based on a pretty unsustainable turnover rate on defense and near perfect health.

Specifically, the team was godawful at rebounding, fouled a ton, and wasn't really elite at anything besides offensive rebounding. However, they also had a bunch of guys who need the ball to be effective in Edwards, Towns and Russell.

Who could you add to the team who helps with rebounding, doesn't demand the ball, and has an all-NBA impact? That's how you end up with the Gobert trade.

***

Everytime I see the Wiz I think Hachimura looks good, though the numbers aren't particularly impressive. He's an RFA after this year, but it's a low QO.


I guess he works to play with Russ and Thomas Bryant? I mean, he's better than Nunn. I don't really think that he can play with LeBron and AD at the same time.
   116. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 23, 2023 at 08:49 PM (#6114106)
It is just infuriating and I am convinced it was ownership that insisted on doing it.

This is where I'm at. I was also thinking that if they were going to make an offer like that, why not try for, I don't know, Siakam?
   117. smileyy Posted: January 23, 2023 at 10:25 PM (#6114119)

I don't really think that he can play with LeBron and AD at the same time.


Fortunately that's not a problem the Lakers frequently have.
   118. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2023 at 10:50 PM (#6114124)
They're just...not good. And I'm not sure where they go from here, because Luka will drag them out of the lottery for the foreseeable future.


Who says no:

Mavs: Luka
Lottery Winner: 1-1 pick

   119. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2023 at 11:10 PM (#6114128)
The Mavs say no, come on. You're hoping Wemby turns into as good a player as Luka as the absolute best case scenario.

Maybe this is a hot take, but I don't think Wemby should be considered a generational prospect. I would draft Scoot over him.
   120. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2023 at 11:45 PM (#6114135)
Ok - if the rockets win the lottery would you do it for 1-1 and 2026 BKN 1? What about if they throw in the weird 2025 first?
   121. tshipman Posted: January 24, 2023 at 01:15 AM (#6114148)
None of the stakeholders in that trade would make the deal, as it would be against their rational interests.

The Mavs would not trade Luka because that trade would be three quarters on the dollar.
The Rockets would not trade that package for Luka because their roster would be terribly suited to contention and he'd ask out immediately.
Luka would use all leverage at his disposal to avoid the trade because it would put him farther away from contention.

Like, I get the theoretical thought experiment angle, but these trades basically never happen because it's an awful idea to take a team that tanked and trade for a superstar absent extreme extenuating circumstances. It hasn't happened since 2007, and even in that instance, the Garnett trade happened after the Ray Allen trade (and Garnett was 30).
   122. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 24, 2023 at 02:15 AM (#6114150)
I guess he works to play with Russ and Thomas Bryant? I mean, he's better than Nunn. I don't really think that he can play with LeBron and AD at the same time.

From the Athletic (Jovan Buha):

The Japanese native is shooting 33.7 percent on 3-point shots, a below-league-average figure, but he shot 44.7 percent from beyond the arc last season and 47.0 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. That indicates he could shoot better in Los Angeles with James, Davis and Westbrook creating higher-percentage looks for him.

Hachimura fares well in most defensive metrics, ranging from an above-average defender (plus-0.3 in defensive RAPTOR) to a good defender (plus-0.9 in defensive EPM). The video shows a talented and physically gifted defender who can improve his effort, consistency and awareness.


In theory, you have a guy who can be a 3 and D wing, which works well with LBJ/AD.




   123. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2023 at 07:44 AM (#6114156)
The Celtics have now lost 3 straight games (over a 5ish week span) to the Magic. 7 of their 13 losses are against teams that are currently on track to be in the play-in or out of it altogether (maybe that's normal I don't know, it doesn't seem like it could be!). Weird season.
   124. spivey Posted: January 24, 2023 at 08:51 AM (#6114157)
Neither Wembanyama or Scoot seem to project as very good shooters, Scoot looks like he's probably a below average shooter for position. Wembanyama has some high profile shooting games but he's still just shooting 29% on 3s in a league I suspect has the FIBA line. His FT% is good, though, so probably average to above average for a PF/C.

I'm fine with Wembanyama being a generational prospect, but I don't think I can get all the way there on his value to a franchise is $500mil+ or there's only 5-6 players you'd trade the #1 pick for. I still think there's a lot of questions on where he fits in on offense. You figure he improves there, but without elite dribbling and passing I think you're more likely to be AD on offense as a ceiling. Even Giannis, a better dribbler and passer than AD but far from elite at both, is having serious trouble running an effective offense this year as *the* initiator.
   125. asinwreck Posted: January 24, 2023 at 09:18 AM (#6114166)
Beyond the hypothetical "would you rather have Luka or Wembanyama?" such a trade would require salary matching. How would, say, Orlando assemble such a package?

I see parallels in Luka's development to this stage of his career to Jordan through age 23. Not that he's going to be Jordan, but the ability to dominate as an individual while his team struggles to figure out how best to build around the talent reminds me a lot of the pre-Doug Collins Bulls. He has already built upon his immense potential, and he's shown his body can withstand the rigors of a regular season and postseason. (With Wembanyama, I worry that the Ralph Sampson comp might come into play. I hope to look back on this comment in five years and see it was unfounded.) Absent a health issue or intractable holdout, you don't trade that kind of player.
   126. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 24, 2023 at 10:12 AM (#6114170)
The Wolves weren't actually that good last year. Ya, ya, 46 wins, but it was based on a pretty unsustainable turnover rate on defense and near perfect health.

Specifically, the team was godawful at rebounding, fouled a ton, and wasn't really elite at anything besides offensive rebounding. However, they also had a bunch of guys who need the ball to be effective in Edwards, Towns and Russell.

Who could you add to the team who helps with rebounding, doesn't demand the ball, and has an all-NBA impact? That's how you end up with the Gobert trade.


I don't disagree with most of this, but ...

They were a young team last year, with both obvious talent and obvious flaws, who had taken a big leap and even if they improved in many ways were likely to take a bit of a step back. But that is OK. Have a good look at the young kids and see what vets fit into the mix (Kyle Anderson was a brilliant move, for example).

Then at the end of this year you have a ton of assets, including talented young players who don't fit together great, cap flexibility, and basically, all your draft picks. You are in an ideal place to trade assets for assets and shape them into a better-fitting roster. Heck, you could even do it during the season if deals arose.

What you don't do is overpay for the big piece to push you into contention way too early. Gobert is not pushing them into contention. At best he pushes you into middle purgatory. Well unless Ant and Jaden go supernova, in which case you are cheating their timeline by bringing in Gobert anyway.


I mean what you lay out is the logic they probably followed, but it was dumb and maddening.
   127. DCA Posted: January 24, 2023 at 11:29 AM (#6114184)
The Mavs say no, come on. You're hoping Wemby turns into as good a player as Luka as the absolute best case scenario.

I'm wondering which years you would trade Luka for the 1.1 pick.

Kareem, LeBron, yeah obviously.

Probably Robinson and Shaq too.

That might be it. The next tier down (obvious best in class, better than most #1s, not obvious GOAT candidates at time of draft) is probably Duncan, Olajuwon, Ewing, Davis, Thompson, Sampson, Walton, Hayes, maybe a few others ... and I think I'd rather have Luka than most of those guys.
   128. spivey Posted: January 24, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6114186)
I don't think there's ever a year you'd trade Luka for the #1 pick. Even if LeBron was coming out. For the next 10 years, I don't think there's any player I'd rather have on my franchise than Luka. I don't care what your potential is, nothing beats a guy who is already MVP level and very young and has top 10-15 all time potential.

That LeBron surpassed that doesn't mean it's a safe bet.
   129. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 24, 2023 at 11:53 AM (#6114187)
nevermind, misread your post.
   130. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 24, 2023 at 11:10 PM (#6114329)
The Lakers are down 77-54 at half-time against the Clippers. The Clippers hit 15 three pointers in the first half, on only 23 attempts. That's a lot. The Lakers give up a lot of 40 point quarters.
   131. aberg Posted: January 25, 2023 at 10:09 AM (#6114365)
That might be it. The next tier down (obvious best in class, better than most #1s, not obvious GOAT candidates at time of draft) is probably Duncan, Olajuwon, Ewing, Davis, Thompson, Sampson, Walton, Hayes, maybe a few others ... and I think I'd rather have Luka than most of those guys.


I'm too young to remember the feeling at the time, but was Robinson really a more hyped prospect than Ewing?
   132. tshipman Posted: January 25, 2023 at 11:22 AM (#6114375)
Doesn't that illustrate the issue? Ewing was incredibly hyped, and his lottery has sparked conspiracy theories that persist to this day.

Trading a current day Luka for Patrick Ewing would be a huge mistake, even if we let each player stay in their era.
   133. DCA Posted: January 25, 2023 at 12:14 PM (#6114393)
Robinson really a more hyped prospect than Ewing?

I remember Robinson being special even in the context of the Sampson/Olajuwon/Ewing/Daughterty/Robinson run of 1.1 centers. The idea is that he - along with Kareem, LeBron, Shaq - were already top 10 or so players in the world at the time they were drafted. They weren't just potential, they were already there.

Fun fact: When he made his NBA debut, Robinson was older than Luka is now.
   134. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 25, 2023 at 12:15 PM (#6114394)
I am a bit too young to remember Robinson's draft hype, but he definitely hit the league fully-formed. His first month, he averaged 21 and 12 and didn't slow down all season. He ended up at 24 ppg, 12 rpg, 4 bpg on 53% shooting and the Spurs won 35 more games than the year before.

Injury updates:
Bobby Portis has an MCL strain and is ruled out for tonight. He's been excellent for the Bucks this year.

Zion "making progress" and his hamstring will be re-evaulated in two weeks.
   135. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 25, 2023 at 12:44 PM (#6114402)
Anthony Davis is slated to return today. The Lakers didn't completely collapse without him and are just 1.5 games away from the play-in and 2.5 games from the six seed.

Since turning 38, Lebron is putting up 36.1 ppg/9.5 rbg/8.3 apg on .533/.329/.794 shooting. He is avergaing nearly a point per minute.

Also, Jokic's on/off is insane at 20.8/
   136. spivey Posted: January 25, 2023 at 12:54 PM (#6114405)
Bobby Portis has an MCL strain and is ruled out for tonight. He's been excellent for the Bucks this year.


This season has been very frustrating, it feels like Milwaukee hasn't really played at full strength at all - the game against Detroit was one of the few games they did, and then immediately Portis gets hurt. Giannis and Middleton returned against Detroit and looked healthy. Portis said his injury wasn't serious after the Detroit game, so I'm thinking this may be precautionary.

The Bucks have kind of maintained a pretty good record via a lot of smoke and mirrors. But I think the second half of the season is important for them to get ready for the playoffs.
   137. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 25, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6114420)
I am a bit too young to remember Robinson's draft hype, but he definitely hit the league fully-formed. His first month, he averaged 21 and 12 and didn't slow down all season. He ended up at 24 ppg, 12 rpg, 4 bpg on 53% shooting and the Spurs won 35 more games than the year before.


And then the organization managed to do it again 7 years later, after the one year Robinson missed due to injuries, with Tim Duncan - 21 PPG & 12 RPG and a 36 win improvement.
   138. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 25, 2023 at 04:07 PM (#6114465)
Robinson really a more hyped prospect than Ewing?


Robinson was really hard to get a handle on, because of the Navy service. Everyone knew he was amazing, but you had to wait, and would he keep his skills over time without playing? Would he possibly be put in danger during his military service? What if there was a war and he was called into service?

All that kind of overshadowed his actual being a prospect, though he was still taken #1 overall.
   139. DCA Posted: January 25, 2023 at 06:48 PM (#6114497)
And then the organization managed to do it again 7 years later, after the one year Robinson missed due to injuries, with Tim Duncan - 21 PPG & 12 RPG and a 36 win improvement.

Yeah, but that 36 win improvement was from adding Duncan and Robinson.

Which means that Duncan was only +1 win. That's how it works, right?
   140. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: January 25, 2023 at 08:06 PM (#6114511)
i'm done with these shitty little white men.

robo-umps cannot get here soon enough.
   141. spivey Posted: January 26, 2023 at 09:32 AM (#6114558)
Agree with tship. We can't help but be biased by how players do in the NBA when remembering back on hype levels. People were saying Wiggins was the best wing prospect since LeBron for a lot of his college season. If he ended up being a perennial all-NBA player, we'd remember his prospect status another tier above where it's remembered/treated today.
   142. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 26, 2023 at 09:45 AM (#6114559)
Again, Robinson's college career happened when I was still wearing short pants, but 1987 looks like a relatively weak draft year. Pippen was an all time great, but he went to an NAIA school and was no sure thing. Let's put together a lineup and compare it to surrounding draft years:

1987: Mark Jackson, Reggie Miller, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant, David Robinson. Okay, that's actually pretty good. Two top-30 players and another easy HOFer.

1985: Terry Porter, Joe Dumars, Chris Mullin, Karl Malone, Patrick Ewing. Probably the best team from this stretch- three Dream Teamers + another HOFer.

1986: Mark Price, Dell Curry, Ron Harper, Dennis Rodman, Brad Daugherty.

1988: Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Dan Majerle, Anthony Mason, Rik Smits or Rony Seikaly. Probably the weakest team of this stretch.

1989: Tim Hardaway, Glen Rice, Sean Elliott, Shawn Kemp, Vlade Divac.

1990: Gary Payton, Dennis Scott, Cedric Ceballos, Derrick Coleman, Elden Campbell.

   143. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 26, 2023 at 09:45 AM (#6114560)
Are robo-umps in basketball a thing?
   144. jmurph Posted: January 26, 2023 at 10:13 AM (#6114563)
Bobby Marks @BobbyMarks42
Last 3 games for Ben Simmons in the 4Q:

5.9 minutes (7th on the team)

3 shot attempts

0 FTA

3 assists/3 turnovers

So what team is Ben Simmons on next year?
   145. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 26, 2023 at 10:21 AM (#6114566)
I thought it was funny last ngiht when Kendrick Perkins said that Simmons stats were starting to look like his own.
   146. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 11:11 AM (#6114572)
I would happily trade DLo for Simmons, but I am not sure it helps either team honestly. And I have no idea what the various contract numbers are like.
   147. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 26, 2023 at 01:00 PM (#6114593)
I just don't even know with this Twolves team. I really, really, really wish they hadn't made the trade.
   148. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 26, 2023 at 01:26 PM (#6114598)
Yes, he's overrated in historical terms, but there is no doubt that Kobe is the icon for current pro athletes. Here's an article on the Ringer about why.
   149. nick swisher hygiene Posted: January 26, 2023 at 01:34 PM (#6114600)
57i66135, as the thread historian, could you come up with some links to what people here originally thought about the Gobert deal?
   150. jmurph Posted: January 26, 2023 at 01:44 PM (#6114604)
57i66135, as the thread historian, could you come up with some links to what people here originally thought about the Gobert deal?

I'm confident we were nearly all on the right side of history on this one.
   151. tshipman Posted: January 26, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6114606)
My recollection is that the Minnesota fans were very pollyanish.

Edit: I was definitely the most aggressive about shitting on the deal.
   152. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 26, 2023 at 02:18 PM (#6114614)
IIRC there was discussion and varying opinions about the fit/potential for Minny, but broad agreement that the price paid was bananapants
   153. nick swisher hygiene Posted: January 26, 2023 at 02:58 PM (#6114629)
Yeah, just looked it up and found myself counting the draft picks over and over again in disbelief....
   154. tshipman Posted: January 26, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6114632)
Here's the link:

Selected comments:

Yeah, I'd do that if I'm running the Wolves. Hell of a frontcourt.
...
If Ainge is betting on the Wolves being the Wolves and those firsts turn into high picks, then I see the appeal. But this is not the KG-PP deal of aging stars, and there's a very good chance KAT and Gobert lead this franchise on a sustained run of success over the next 5-6 years.


At first glance, that Gobert deal is basically the worst trade I can think of in my entire adult life.


I have serious concerns about how Kat and Gobert will play together. I don't agree that it makes the team worse, especially considering the specific weaknesses. Like I said before, that's A LOT of draft equity to give up and it scares the pants off of me. Conversely, I have a ton of faith in Connelly and Finch's basketball acumen (not to mention Gupta), so I want to wait to see how it looks.


I think it’s a very interesting fit, on court wise. I don’t like the cost.


Yeah, I thought the Hawk move for Murray was risky. The Gobert move is hitting on 17 in blackjack.


On the MN gives up stuff side, the early draft picks don't worry me - I am not sure about the playoffs, but this looks like a really good regular season team. Walker K doesn't bother me, not getting Rudy. I don't like losing Vanderbilt or PatBev, but they are hardly irreplaceable. Leandro we hardly knew you. The back end of the pick stream is a bit terrifying though.

I think "Gobert gets played off the court" is a way overdone take. I think team composition had a bunch to do with that, unfortunately, Vando, and PatBev were among the better defenders which would have made Rudy's life easier. Still, Ant and McDaniels are very good defenders (and on the upswing in theory), which is more than Rudy had in Utah.


my comment:
I wish I had more hands so I could give this trade four thumbs down for Minnesota.


Edit:
jmurph was my hater's ball dance partner on this trade.
   155. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 03:15 PM (#6114634)
I mean I appreciate being quoted, but the excerpt makes it sound like I was positive, but like one of the first things I wrote was "I am still processing it, and right now my initial impression is negative."

But, I stand by what I wrote.
   156. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 26, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6114636)
I just scrolled through to make sure I didn't see any comments from me about the trade requiring me to erase my barely-used-BBTF-identity. Phew. Think I'm in the clear.
   157. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 26, 2023 at 03:29 PM (#6114638)
I think my take, as milquetoast as it was ("I think it’s a very interesting fit, on court wise. I don’t like the cost.") is still how I feel. I just like the cost a lot less and I'm way more skeptical of the fit.
   158. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 26, 2023 at 03:36 PM (#6114639)
I just can't help but think -- just, don't do that trade? Sign Anderson? Keep Kessler? Maybe go get Murray, instead? Sigh.
   159. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 03:51 PM (#6114642)
I just can't help but think -- just, don't do that trade? Sign Anderson? Keep Kessler? Maybe go get Murray, instead? Sigh.


One of my early posts:
So I was thinking about the trade while walking the dog, and it occurred to me that Tim C had been the GM for like five minutes and he make a huge move. He could have held off until the next offseason (or even during the next season) and had a ton of assets to make a big move, but he decide to make the big move right now.

Either he thinks this is it, ownership was antsy, or he was constrained by previous ownership, and now that he has the authority he can wheel and deal (or some combination).


And I think that basically is still true. I hope it was ownership, otherwise ... seen the team run by idiot GMs. It is not fun. I mean crazy ownership is not better, but we are totally used to bad ownership. <sob>
   160. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:20 PM (#6114646)
It really smelled like a combination of "Connelly, you finally get your dream job!" and "we just bought this team, we need to make a huge splash". I don't know.
   161. tshipman Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:22 PM (#6114648)
I mean I appreciate being quoted, but the excerpt makes it sound like I was positive, but like one of the first things I wrote was "I am still processing it, and right now my initial impression is negative."

But, I stand by what I wrote.


You were negative on the value, but positive on the on court results. Other quotes:

I like the MN enough to take the over. No idea how the playoffs go, but I think they are well set up for the regular season and unlike many teams they will want to pile up the regular season wins.
   162. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:29 PM (#6114651)
You were negative on the value, but positive on the on court results.


I was negative. I mean it says so right there - "my initial impression is negative".

I was willing to try to see what the upside was, why the trade was made. But, seriously I was was very clear. I have no clue why you are misrepresenting it, but whatever, you provided the link, people can read it for themselves.
   163. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:35 PM (#6114652)
i liked the deal for minnesota for a few minutes, until i heard the full return. then, a week or two later, i thought about it some more and how gobert would age on that deal and maybe they didn't have a deal lined up for towns already and got ... concerned for them. though, i'll admit to being more agnostic than i should've been for quite awhile.
   164. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:42 PM (#6114654)
I don't think there is much point in being endlessly negative about the team one is a fan of. Part of being a fan is looking for the possible upside for your team.

"Yes the starting and backup QB for my team were injured, but I think the third string rookie drafted with the last pick this year will be pretty good!"

And sometimes, the optimism pays off. Not often, but sometimes. I mean you should be realistic, "it looks bad, but maybe" seems like a fine balance as does a general agnosticism.
   165. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:44 PM (#6114655)
eh, i pretty much start and end at pessimistic and it has worked so far. things like the one time we made the conference finals feel like free money.
   166. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 04:52 PM (#6114659)
I mean I canceled most of my cable package earlier this week, knowing it was not worth the money to watch the Wolves and Twins be feeble, so I get it, but I try to be more on the optimistic side.
   167. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 26, 2023 at 05:00 PM (#6114664)
I mean, I will still watch them, and root for them, and I'm going to see them when they're here in Tronna. I ride or die with this sad-ass franchise.
   168. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: January 26, 2023 at 05:14 PM (#6114665)
it helps for me that i've never been ride or die, even when i was young. i mean - i've tried to turn myself into that at times? but i know it's not me. heck, even like on the playground i was more likely to imagine myself as a bench player thrust into a big moment for some random team (like it could be anybody - even minor league baseball/basketball) than as a star or for a team i rooted for. whatever.
   169. asinwreck Posted: January 26, 2023 at 07:45 PM (#6114690)
I adored it. To be clear, I'm not a Wolves' fan, but I was fascinated to see how it would play out. Love seeing teams take absolutely wild swings.

I also enjoyed watching Ted Stepien's ownership of the Cavs, so there's that.

   170. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 26, 2023 at 08:03 PM (#6114693)
The man got a rule named after him, he must have been doing something right. Right?
   171. tshipman Posted: January 26, 2023 at 08:18 PM (#6114695)
I unironically think that Stepien was a better owner than someone lame like Herb Kohl.

***

All star starters are out.

In the East: Giannis, Tatum, Durant, Kyrie, Donovan Mitchell.

Kyrie starting is kind of a joke, and I would have gone with Embiid over Giannis or Tatum.

In the West: LeBron, Steph, Luka, Jokic, Zion (!)

Zion has barely played more games than Anthony Davis. LeBron probably does not belong, but whatever, he's the GOAT or at least Co-GOAT.
   172. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 26, 2023 at 10:23 PM (#6114722)
Bulls have a few more games like this one maybe we'll get some big deadline trades after all.
   173. Mike A Posted: January 27, 2023 at 12:06 AM (#6114735)
Yeah, I thought the Hawk move for Murray was risky. The Gobert move is hitting on 17 in blackjack.
I was wondering who said that, and it turns out it was...me.

I had absolutely no recollection, but I'm pretty pleased with the prognostication.
   174. jmurph Posted: January 27, 2023 at 08:17 AM (#6114743)
At first glance, that Gobert deal is basically the worst trade I can think of in my entire adult life.

This is... still on the table, I think?

   175. jmurph Posted: January 27, 2023 at 08:22 AM (#6114744)
Kyrie starting is kind of a joke, and I would have gone with Embiid over Giannis or Tatum.

Agree that Embiid should be starting. I think Tatum is probably having a slightly better season than Giannis, but also Giannis is established as the better player, so I wouldn't argue either way on that one. Durant will presumably miss the game, so surely Embiid/Giannis/Tatum will end up starting anyway.

With Kyrie getting the start I think we can definitively rule out league shenanigans in this kind of thing, because there's no way in hell they want that guy as an All Star starter.
   176. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 27, 2023 at 08:53 AM (#6114747)
538 now has teams 3-13 in the West all to finish with between 38-44 wins.
   177. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 27, 2023 at 09:16 AM (#6114749)
This is... still on the table, I think?


Professional sports trade? No chance. That is the Herschel Walker trade, now and forever.
Basketball trade? Possibly, but it is too early to tell honestly. Heck I could argue the Wolves trading away KG for a bag of beans was worse from a fan perspective (Yes, they did him a solid, but man that trade sucked), so I am not sure it is even the worst trade in franchise history.
   178. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 27, 2023 at 09:47 AM (#6114751)
Professional sports trade? No chance. That is the Herschel Walker trade, now and forever.


Not the Ricky Williams trade? Or does that not count as it was technically a trade for a draft pick, not a player?
   179. DCA Posted: January 27, 2023 at 10:10 AM (#6114752)
Heck I could argue the Wolves trading away KG for a bag of beans

One of the beans could have been Curry, which would probably have changed the perception of the trade considerably.
   180. asinwreck Posted: January 27, 2023 at 10:17 AM (#6114754)
Yeah, the Ricky Williams deal was wild.

The Babe Ruth for cash deal still looms large in the history of North American professional sports. In basketball, has anyone done an oral history of the Sixers getting Dr. J? The Nets being able to keep him upon entry to the NBA would have made the early 80s look far different in the East.
   181. jmurph Posted: January 27, 2023 at 10:24 AM (#6114758)
Professional sports trade?

I was just referring to NBA trades.
   182. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 27, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6114760)
One of the beans could have been Curry, which would probably have changed the perception of the trade considerably.


Fair. I even wanted them to pick Curry. A rare time I was right in the draft.
   183. tshipman Posted: January 27, 2023 at 11:46 AM (#6114767)
The Babe Ruth for cash deal still looms large in the history of North American professional sports. In basketball, has anyone done an oral history of the Sixers getting Dr. J? The Nets being able to keep him upon entry to the NBA would have made the early 80s look far different in the East.


That era of the NBA was rife with absolutely godawful trades.

Probably the worst trade in NBA history was when the New Orleans Jazz traded two first round picks and a second for the rights to sign 32 year old Gail Goodrich. One of those picks turned into Magic Johnson. Gail Goodrich played 3 more years and averaged 14 points per game for a Jazz team that missed the playoffs every year.

You have to era adjust NBA trades because owners did a lot of coke in the 70s and 80s.
   184. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 27, 2023 at 11:47 AM (#6114768)
Heck I could argue the Wolves trading away KG for a bag of beans


Al Jefferson was obviously no KG, but he did have three pretty good years for the Wolves. Heck, Ryan Gomes wasn't terrible either. Those two plus the picks were not a great haul by any means, but there have been much, much worse trades - the KG/Pierce trade to the Nets being one.
   185. jmurph Posted: January 27, 2023 at 12:20 PM (#6114774)
Lots of salary dump trades, or guys forcing their way out, or accommodating vets, etc., are bad deals because there are a lot of factors that restrict the market. The differences between those kinds of deals and the Gobert trade are, I think, pretty obvious.

(Which isn't to defend those deals, exactly, just to point out that proactively going out to get a guy in a monumentally bad deal is a different thing.)
   186. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 27, 2023 at 01:00 PM (#6114780)
Ryan Gomes! I always get him mixed up with Craig Smith, and I think they were both on the Wolves at the same time.

I've mentioned my all-time worst draft take that John Henson would be 90% of AD, my second worst take is that Craig Smith would be a poor man's Charles Barkley, which I guess is technically true, since Smith did have a pretty good career for a 2nd round pick.
   187. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: January 27, 2023 at 07:35 PM (#6114826)
Jacque Vaughn rolls his eyes after talking about Ben Simmons "Knee Soreness" #Netsworld
pic.twitter.com/ZlztIdnvsE

— Jeri Tsai (@JeriTsaiNets) January 27, 2023
   188. tshipman Posted: January 27, 2023 at 10:29 PM (#6114839)
You ever wonder why Washington has the league's longest streak of not winning 50 games?

The Wizards are not interested in blowing up their roster and would like to keep their Big 3, per the Washington Post

“Tommy Sheppard’s front office believes their team is more talented than it has been in years past.”
   189. esseff Posted: January 28, 2023 at 12:59 AM (#6114845)
Probably the worst trade in NBA history was when the New Orleans Jazz traded two first round picks and a second for the rights to sign 32 year old Gail Goodrich.


I submit the Hawks trading Bill Russell on draft day in 1956 for Cliff Hagan and Ed Macauley.
   190. PJ Martinez Posted: January 28, 2023 at 09:43 AM (#6114862)
Someone on Reddit noticed that, this season, Jaren Jackson, Jr., is getting credited for roughly twice as many blocks and steals at home than he gets on the road. (I don't know how those stats compare to those of other players, but the Redditor notes that last year Jackson's numbers were only slightly better at home.) Those stats have gone a long way to making Jackson the favorite for DPOY. And here are video clips of what strike me as fairly egregious examples.

Edit: Here's some statistical evidence that Jackson's defense has genuinely been better at home this year. But twice as good? I'm not sure about that.
   191. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: January 28, 2023 at 10:08 AM (#6114863)
Actually just came from that thread to post it here. I know it's reddit, but seemed very well researched, and while I haven't looked at all of the evidence, some of the examples really are egregious.

I think it raises a bigger issue as well. In that if the NBA and other American leagues want to get into bed with gambling, they really, really need to have independent scorekeepers and statisticians recording things, and not ones affiliated with the teams.
   192. PJ Martinez Posted: January 28, 2023 at 10:24 AM (#6114864)
Here's a long 2009 Deadspin interview with a former scorekeeper who says that, when he was doing it, there was some atrocious fudging (particularly with assists and blocks, and to a lesser extent with steals and rebounds).
   193. kcgard2 Posted: January 28, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6114868)
Assists in particular can have pretty egregious rulings, from what I've noticed. I've often wondered why scorekeepers are affiliated with teams - in the NBA and MLB is creates some obviously biased results. There should also be absolutely no way a player should even know who the scorer is or have any possible way of contacting/berating that person over a scoring decision, which happens in the MLB at least (never heard of it in the NBA). Yes, there needs to be an independent service that scorekeeps for the leagues.
   194. PJ Martinez Posted: January 28, 2023 at 02:51 PM (#6114883)
FWIW, various commentators on Twitter have now watched all of Jackson's home blocks this year and seem to think that only a few are dubious (including a couple of those flagged by the guy on Reddit). So maybe only a little home cooking, plus some better play at home in a relatively small sample size.
   195. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: January 28, 2023 at 10:22 PM (#6114929)
Justin Grasso @JGrasso_
Joel Embiid on when he found out he's not an All-Star:

“I was not surprised. I think it’s well-documented that I’m not well-liked. That’s cool. I don’t know if it’s because I troll a lot, or I guess I’m an #######, but it’s cool. I’ll keep being me." #Sixers

   196. tshipman Posted: January 28, 2023 at 11:27 PM (#6114933)
What a #### show at the end of this game.

LeBron takes a clear 3 steps on a drive, Tatum hacks the crap out of his arm in what is probably one of the easiest calls to make since it was above the bodies and really, really clear.

No call on either--but there is a tech on Beverly for trying to show the ref the call on a camera.
   197. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 28, 2023 at 11:55 PM (#6114938)
Regarding the Laker game:

That was terrible non-call at the end of the game. I get you can't have challenges every play and I am not sure that there's anything that can be done about it but that's a tough loss for the Lakers.

The thing I hate the most about modern big men is when they allow much smaller players play defense on them and not punish them. Malcolm Brogdon player 39 minutes, a lot of them being the primary defender against AD, and he killed the Lakers offensively. AD didn't do anything against him on the offensive end. AD is a finesse big man (finesse sometimes being the kindest word for soft) but you can't let a 6-4 prevent you from getting buckets as one of the premier bigs in the league. His inability to do so really cost the Lakers tonight.

I think the Lakers are a poorly coached team. The way they played the end of overtime was just horrible, the tech by Beverly is not something you need when you are trying to win a game in overtime, and this is not the first time they have made bad decisions down the stretch in a close game. Maybe it is just a sign of a bad team but you'd think a team with a lot of veteran players would be better at those types things.

I think the Lakers could be kind of interesting if they make the playoffs but I think they are going to have a hard time even making the play-in game.
   198. Moeball Posted: January 29, 2023 at 12:18 AM (#6114940)
Speaking of Beverly, he had a chance to give Lakers a 4 pt lead with only seconds left, but blew the FT. Then, with it still a 3 pt game, with Boston driving the lane, that's only going to be a 2 pt shot, let the Cs have that, Lakers will get the ball back with a 1 pt lead and Boston will have to foul or watch the clock run out. But on the Celtic drive Beverly commits a stupid foul giving them a 3 pt play and a tie. I've always had the feeling Beverly wasn't the smartest player; this didn't improve that opinion.
   199. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 29, 2023 at 12:27 AM (#6114941)
I've always had the feeling Beverly wasn't the smartest player; this didn't improve that opinion.

Those points are valid but he did play very well up to those points. He scored 9 points in the 4th, and his put back dunk was an excellent and unexpected play. He had a really good game.
   200. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2023 at 09:25 AM (#6114955)
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