flip

As a fan, I don't see the point of raging or despondency about my sports teams. Why do that to myself? Being angry or despondent or whatever sucks.

It's easy for me to do that with basketball, in part because (as TShip pointed out), the Lakers have won so many titles in my lifetime, it's, you know, fine. The Angels have definitely driven me to despair. I don't really know what to do about that.

Lakers win tonight despite a c+ game from AD. He was mediocre offensively although solid from the line. Just one more made field goals than turnovers. He just didn't seem very assertive offensively.

Austin Reaves was excellent today. He got to the line 18 times. He was their best player today.

AD is going to need to be better if this team is going to make the play-in.

Lebron James to be evaluated at the end of the week.

Hey, *I* didn't want that trade! None of the Lakers fans here did. Sometimes, teams do things that turn out really badly, and you either rage about it or step away from it (which is what I did).

It was kind of like the Vernon Wells trade the Angels made last decade. Not only are you paying the guy a top tier salary, but he plays everyday and gives you a .248 OBP.

Angels have yet to recover from that one even after coming up with 2 baseball equivalents of Wembanyama.

538 win projections

58 Bucks
56 Celtics
55 Sixers
51 Cavs
48 Knicks
45 Nets
---
44 Heat
41 Raptors
41 Hawks
39 Bulls
---
37 Wizards
36 Pacers

54 Nuggets
51 Grizzlies
49 Kings
44 Suns
43 Clippers
42 Warriors
---
42 Mavericks
41 Timberwolves
41 Lakers
40 Thunder
---
39 Jazz
39 Pelicans
35 Blazers

I feel like there used to be nothing to pay attention to at the end of the regular season, and now there's so much it's hard to pay attention to.

Disgraceful loss by the Hawks. Led by 23 at halftime, then lost at home to the Spurs. Trae only had 9 points, wonder when his last single-digit scoring game was.

EDIT: it was Trae's second single-digit game of the year, but the first was on March 4. He only had one the previous year.

Game 17 (video link: Here)

Bucks (DCA) 2-0 @ Heat (JJ1986) 2-0

Starting Lineups:

Bucks

John Stockton
Dwyane Wade
Julius Erving
George Mikan
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Heat

Chauncey Billups
Kobe Bryant
Paul George
LeBron James
Alonzo Mourning

Synopsis:

George Mikan was active early, taking advantage of the space that the Heat’s defense was allowing him, as he scored his team’s first six points. John Stockton took over from there, scoring nine points and adding three assists in the first quarter. For the Heat, LeBron James kept his team afloat, scoring 8 of the team’s first nine points before handing the baton to Karl-Anthony Towns who added six points late in the quarter. After one period, the Bucks had a 24-18 lead. The Heat offense, well, got hot in the second quarter as the team hit four three pointers, distributed evenly amongst their guards and wings, en route to a 34 point quarter. Stockton put in seven more points to lead all scorers, but really the story of the first half was Dwyane Wade, who had a paltry one point, missing all 12 of his field goal attempts. The Bucks looked far more in sync in the third quarter, but the Heat had two key advantages. The first was that they could actually hit some long range shots, helping the team to keep pace every time the Bucks threatened to go on a run. The second advantage was that LeBron would occasionally find himself on an iso set guarded by George Mikan. And those possessions tended to end exactly like you would imagine. In all, the third quarter was pretty even, and the Heat kept a 81-70 lead into the fourth. The Bucks got as close as six points in the final quarter, but their shooting was just not good enough to sustain a charge. Final score: Heat 111 (3-0), Bucks 94 (2-1).

Key stat:

The Heat shot 12-30 from three. The Bucks were just 2-19.

Nail in the coffin:

Kobe Bryant sank a pull up triple with a little over three minutes remaining to put the Heat up 12.

Player of the game:

LeBron managed a 27/11/3 line on 20 shots.

Strong in defeat:

John Stockton led his team with 23 points (9-17) and also added 10 assists and two steals.

The anchor:

Prior write ups have marveled at the unending stream of bigs that the Bucks utilized. In this game, however, the post game was essentially dead and you have to give Alonzo Mourning significant credit for that. While his nine point and seventeen rebound night was good, the real value came in just how quickly the Bucks ignored the fact that they had Kareem, who only attempted six shots in the game.

Five tool player:

Is there an equivalent to the five tool archetype in basketball? Maybe outside shooting, passing, rebounding, driving, and defense? Whatever the categories, Kobe Bryant probably owns them. The two guard was 3-8 from deep and he finished the game with 23/6/10. The hunt for a triple double continues…

Lockdown:

John Stockton saw the need to produce and he came through. The big men were maybe always going to struggle against James and Mourning. So, he fed D-Wade and Dr. J, early and often. The pair rewarded the point guard and the team with a breathtaking combination of 14-46 shooting (30%).

Our first elimination game is up next, as the 0-2 Blazers (tshipman) match up against the 0-2 Suns (Obscura). Probably coming Wednesday…

Disgraceful loss by the Hawks. Led by 23 at halftime, then lost at home to the Spurs. Trae only had 9 points, wonder when his last single-digit scoring game was.

EDIT: it was Trae's second single-digit game of the year, but the first was on March 4. He only had one the previous year.

Possibly insane idea, but I wonder if Ainge/Utah would be interested in trading for Trae? The presence of Sexton might complicate that, but I was just thinking Ainge had a history with offense-only little guys in his time running the show in Boston. It would obviously take some creativity and optimism to think you can put the right pieces around him to make it all work.

It's possible Young is just totally a toxic asset at this point, though? I don't really have a sense of that.

I feel like there used to be nothing to pay attention to at the end of the regular season, and now there's so much it's hard to pay attention to.

The East seems pretty settled. Maybe the Heat vs Nets to make the 6 seed instead of the play-in, but the #7 gets two home games to win one so it's not a huge difference IMO (basically, if you can't make it out of the play-in as a 7 seed, you don't have a chance anyway).

The West is insane though. 4 games separate #4 and #12. The Suns without Durant are currently in position to get HFA in a first round series. There's a real chance they don't even make the play-in.

My random casual fan take on Trae Young was at first I didn't like watching him, then I really thought he was fun and loved watching him and thought it was super exciting, and now I just find it all totally depressing and probably has no hope for improvement for any parties involved.

Maybe I'm way off, but I imagine it's been quite a roller coaster for actual Hawks fans. (insert joke about how there aren't Hawks fans here)

it sucks.

It's possible Young is just totally a toxic asset at this point, though? I don't really have a sense of that.

There's no way. All-NBA guys retain value despite a down year. Ben Simmons was traded for value after a total meltdown in the playoffs and refusing to play.

The playbook in Atlanta is:
1. Run it back with Dejounte and Trae next year. Identify a scapegoat and "clean house" in the locker room.
2. Trade Dejounte for 50 cents on the dollar
3. Blow it up.

(since you've already fired the GM and changed the coach, those steps obviously go first)

They've gotta sign Dejounte, though, right? That seems like an inflection point in and of itself.

They've gotta sign Dejounte, though, right? That seems like an inflection point in and of itself.

Wow I thought he was locked up long term. Only one more year? Man that was a massive overpay.

They've gotta sign Dejounte, though, right? That seems like an inflection point in and of itself.

If they're bad at halfway point, you can trade him at the deadline and get something back.

Decision points are:

1. This offseason, identify the scapegoat for the locker room chemistry issues
2. Trade that person, along with John Collins
3. See if your team is good (top 4 in East)
4a. If good, resign Dejounte to his max
4b. If bad, trade Dejounte at deadline for Kevin Huerter type, "we have to get back to letting Trae be Trae."
5. Run it back one more year.
6. If still bad, blow it all up

Oh, I thought he was a FA this offseason. Yeah, 1216 makes all the sense in the world to me.

It is utterly baffling to me that John Collins is still a Hawks.

1. This offseason, identify the scapegoat for the locker room chemistry issues

I haven't been following the Hawks super closely, but I'm pretty sure everything I've seen points towards the locker room issue being Trae. It's a lot of rumor and hearsay, but I've seen a lot of chatter about how he's an ass and uninterested in meaningful leadership. Maybe that's false or only part of the story, but if it's true, I don't think there's a scapegoat to be jettisoned without blowing up this iteration of the Hawks, is there? Maybe they can bring in a UD-style vet to try to set a cultural tone, but if the issue really is Trae I'm not sure how they can right the ship.

this is pretty off-topic, but since we've had a few conversations in this thread about the role that internet algorithms have played in radicalizing various NBA players who have lived in cleveland, boston, brooklyn and dallas, i figured i'd share this fun and fresh little nugget of hell:

Whatever equation powers TikTok’s For You feed appears to have picked up that videos about dead dogs engage users. But it doesn’t seem to know when to stop serving it, and it tends to go too far, perhaps even by design. “When it finds something that works, it will go and try to push that—both at the individual level and the overall ecosystem level—pretty far,” Kevin Munger, a political scientist at Penn State who has studied the TikTok algorithm, explained to me. “It’s not going to stop at the right level.” To use a positive analogy, it’s as if the algorithm has figured out that you like cake, and so it’s serving you cake for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

I haven't been following the Hawks super closely, but I'm pretty sure everything I've seen points towards the locker room issue being Trae. It's a lot of rumor and hearsay, but I've seen a lot of chatter about how he's an ass and uninterested in meaningful leadership. Maybe that's false or only part of the story, but if it's true, I don't think there's a scapegoat to be jettisoned without blowing up this iteration of the Hawks, is there? Maybe they can bring in a UD-style vet to try to set a cultural tone, but if the issue really is Trae I'm not sure how they can right the ship.

That was what I was trying to imply with "scapegoat." Like, Trae might be the issue, but you are committed to Trae, so you come up with something you blame it on, try to get Trae to buy in, and try to move forward.

Edit: and there have been lots of examples where the guy you're committed to is the issue in the locker room. Kobe before 2008 was arguably the big issue. KAT in Minnesota.

i think the hawks were in a pretty good position going into the previous offseason (prior to 21-22), but they keep making moves i don't like plus it's going to be hard to build around trae if some things don't change about his game. i don't have enough insight as to how that locker room functions to know what's going on there. i do think quin was a good hire and i'm curious as to what kind of system he's going to set up there next season (this year is a feeling out process, i figure).
atlanta has drafted well but (i think) has viewed roles in terms of archetypes rather than seeing how they can best use some of the players that they've had. this has led to a lot of mistakes at the three as they look for a prototypical wing rather than accept the limitations of who they've got (mostly hunter), led to the continued misuse of collins and huerter (who was always capable of being more than a spacer), and so on. fields is new on the job but trading five seconds for bey is a pretty bad start.

That was what I was trying to imply with "scapegoat." Like, Trae might be the issue, but you are committed to Trae, so you come up with something you blame it on, try to get Trae to buy in, and try to move forward.

Ah, ok. I guess I think either Snyder and the team get Trae to buy in or they're f'd and a scapegoat doesn't matter much one way or the other, but if there are players who are catalysts here, either because they can't get along with Trae or encourage his bad tendencies they should get them gone at whatever cost, which is maybe the same thing you're saying.

fields is new on the job but trading five seconds for bey is a pretty bad start.

Eh ... agree and disagree.

Five seconds is pretty much zero cost.

If you take a look at the entire 2013 second round, all 30 picks summed up to 4.5 VORP. 4.1 of that was provided by one dude, Mike Muscala. In the last 10 years, something like 90% of all value (not fact checked, don't @ me, bro) accrued by players in the second round is just one guy (Jokic).

The median value for a second is probably 0. A *really good* second is Mike Muscala. Are you really that broken up if in 5 years you traded away the next Mike Muscala?

***

Now the problem with this analysis is that Saddiq Bey is also not that great. So while you're not really broken up about trading the next Mike Muscala, you're also not that thrilled about acquiring this exact Saddiq Bey.

The Doctor makes a house call. Goes right at Mourning. Goes around Thunder Dan. Past Thunder Dan. Just being awesome. Goes to work against PG13.

Mikan punishes Kobe on the bad switch. Finishes the oop from Stockton.

Kobe finishes the break. Wade goes at Kobe. Kobe freezes Wade with the pump fake.

Look at this pump fake by Mr. Big Shot. Off the curl.

Lebron is too quick for Mikan. Too quick for Mikan. Dunk contest content. With no regard for human life. Unfair.

The Dan Majerle content you crave.

X gonna give it to ya.

To be fair to Trae, he was questionable with a knee bruise yesterday. I watched the game (and somehow didn't throw my TV out the window) and it was pretty clear he wasn't 100%.

Over the past 36 games, Trae has been 27/3/10 on 46/38/89 splits (61.5 TS%). He had a really bad start to the season, but has been pretty much normal Trae since. Over the season, he's 8th in RAPTOR war, 19th in eW. He's working harder on defense. I just don't see where Trae is really much of a problem, except arguably in the locker room. But the general belief from insiders is that he's a nice guy, just quiet and not really your typical leader type. And on the court, he's so ball-centric (and can make some questionable decisions) that he can be difficult to play with, as Huerter alluded to in an interview earlier this year.

More of an issue is the players around Trae and some poor moves by the front office. Collins has regressed substantially, as his finger injury seems to have made him unable to shoot. 4th pick Hunter is pretty much the same player as when he came into the league, just pretty mid at everything. Murray has been OK, but up-and-down and his defense is not what was advertised. The loss of Huerter and Wright to the luxury tax was a disaster. Etc, etc, etc.

There is some room from optimism. Snyder is a good coach. Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, and AJ Griffin have shown potential. But decisions like the re-signing of Bogi and the trade for Bey? I just don't know.

This team is puzzling, and yes, they have been incredibly frustrating to watch.

Not the best night for scoreboard watching for the Lakers today. The Jazz beat the Kings despite not having Lauri, Sexton, or Clarkson. The Wolves beat the Knicks despite not having KAT or Anthony Edwards.

Gotta give the Jazz credit, they've gotten big wins against the Celtics and Kings the last two games.

It's been a bad week for the Lakers.

good sports radio trash talk (if there is such a thing - admittedly questionable) among WFAN in NYC hosts today on Knicks vs. Nets.

Nets guy "conceded" that the Knicks are guaranteed to finish ahead of them this season, particularly after this near-forfeit by the T-Wolves tonight.

kind of juvenile, but ok to pass the time while running errands.....

From the Tom Ziller email letter, which was free today:

This isn’t a plea for Dame to change his mind, to change course. It’s a question as to where his personal threshold lays. There’s a big difference between surrendering to Ringz Culture and ensuring you have a roster around you befitting your talents. The latter is not and has not been the case for Dame lately. Where does he go from here?

If the answer is “nowhere,” then so be it. That’s his choice, and it should be a moral imperative on the Blazers to respect that by doing what it takes to give him a competent supporting cast that fits, regardless of the impacts on the team’s future. If that means shopping Simons for a bigger, defense-first guard and moving Sharpe and future picks for realized production, so be it. If Dame feels he owes it to you to stick around, you owe it to him to make this worth his effort.

I guess I don't agree? Like, if Dame wants to stay there, should the Blazers feel morally compelled to trade Simons, Sharpe and future firsts so they can move from a 36 win team to what? A 42 win team? I don't see any play on the board that gets them to the true contender level.

I don't really blame Dame if he does want to stay there, but I also don't blame the Blazers if they don't do crazy stuff because that's where he wants to stay? I don't know. It's a unique situation.

Once we start talking about moral imperatives as it relates to roster building, I'm off the train.

Also, now that Indiana has traded one of Myles Turner or Sabonis, I think this conversation has the most overdone one in the NBA. But if we'r going to have it I think Dame's a great player, a HOFer, but it's not like we're talking about anything approaching a 'Garnett wasting his career in Minnesota' level of career here. Dame's had some big playoff moments, made a conference finals. That's about the player he is, unless he's on a great supporting cast, and the team doesn't know how to roster build, so he hasn't had that. That's fine - it's happened to plenty of HOFers before, and it'll happen to HOFers after him.

but it's not like we're talking about anything approaching a 'Garnett wasting his career in Minnesota' level of career here. Dame's had some big playoff moments, made a conference finals.

I mean the Timberwolves have truly been terrible, but I would like to point out that they made a conference finals with KG, and had a legit shot if not for an injury.

I mean I mostly agree with your point, but ....

Question: is a player worth a supermax contract, but generating no extra value beyond that, a Hall of Famer?

I think the answer is yes, and I think that is more or less the Dame situation, which in turn certainly explains why it's hard for Portland to build a contender around him. None of this is anybody's fault.

Dame's really only starting to get paid supermax money now, and really not even the big bucks yet. He's making $42mil this year.

I agree with the idea it can be nobody's fault. There's 30 teams and winning the championship or even making a finals is really hard. And usually requires players better than Dame. It damn sure requires a better 2nd best player than CJ McCollum and 3rd best player of Nurkic.

But Portland's had some key moments they ###### up. During the first cap spike, them using all that money on Crabbe, Evan Turner, etc. was not good. To me, the path not taken there was probably their best chance to add players during Dame's max hits and they hit the cap. I think they should have moved on much earlier from the Dame/CJ back court, which had too much overlap in strengths and weaknesses. I don't think Nurkic makes any sense as your center when those are your guards. I'm not a huge fan of his in general, but especially with a team with 2 sieves as guards, the fit isn't good. Losing Lamarcus for nothing was not good. In today's NBA, teams probably just trade him if they don't think they can resign him, right? They traded 2 firsts for RoCo, a terrible deal.

They've let some good-ish talent leave cheapish, to me. Hart, Connaughton, Gary Trent - all of whom are better 2 way players than many of the guards and wings they've rolled out over the years. I dunno, I feel like they've never really had a plan, and deluded themselves into thinking they were closer to a championship than they were during much of Dame's prime - much of which was during the GSW dynasty and a time when either the Spurs or Rockets were also title caliber teams in their same conference.

I mean the Timberwolves have truly been terrible, but I would like to point out that they made a conference finals with KG, and had a legit shot if not for an injury.


I understand. I'm also scaling the level of playoff success I expect with KG being a top ~15 player of all time, and Dame being like a top 50-75 guy.

The Lakers' competition for the playin tournament continues to win games that I was hoping they wouldn't. Jazz beat the Kings yesterday, the Wolves beat the Knicks yesterday, and the Thunder beat the Clippers. The Thunder are now 8-2 in their last 10 and hold the 7th spot, just a half-game behind the Warriors for sixth.

Question: is a player worth a supermax contract, but generating no extra value beyond that, a Hall of Famer?

There's guys in the hall already who would not have been worth a supermax-type contract in their era at all (if such a thing had existed).

But speaking of the Hall, I took my kids there recently, hadn't been in (redacted) years since I was like 10. It's a lot of fun, worth a couple hours, but the room honoring the inductees is... just some touch screens, basically? You pick a player and learn about them and see some video. It's weird, doesn't feel special at all the way I remember the baseball plaque room feeeling (though that was similarly long ago).

I suspect Hawks fans were delighted to have Dominique Wilkins play so long in Atlanta despite the team never seriously contending for a championship. Easy Hall of Famer, great player, didn't get his team to the Finals. That's what comes to mind when thinking about Dame in Portland.

I don't think Nurkic makes any sense as your center when those are your guards. I'm not a huge fan of his in general, but especially with a team with 2 sieves as guards, the fit isn't good.

The Blazers fell for a fool's gold stretch immediately after they got Nurkic in 2017. That team was going nowhere but ripped off a good 20 or so games after the deadline, before Nurkic got hurt and missed the playoffs. The fit was never going to be great but they were desperate for a front court anchor after Aldridge left. Plus if there's one org that historically overrates centers ....

The year they made the conference Finals, Nurkic was really good. Sort of fringe all NBA good. Like, not actually All-NBA 3rd team, but one of the last guys you cut. Same level Sabonis is this year, basically.

I put more of the blame on CJ for those Portland teams. He was making a max during their peak while not being able to drive winning.

Dame at his peak was like the 8-10th best player in the NBA. The list of guys in that range who win a championship is not long.

For whatever reason it seems like for all of Dame's career in Portland the Blazers FO has been good at identifying scoring guards and terrible elsewhere. He's been surrounded by wings who can shoot or defend but not both, and Nurk, warts and all, is the best big man he's had since LMA by a pretty good margin. Dame is a tough player to build a championship roster around, but it's also pretty true that the Blazers FO has never done a good job of trying and all of their biggest swings whiffed.

Lillard is at peak now.

1224 - my comment was more about bey than about the 5 seconds. that said, those seconds have trade value and are handy to have around when you need them. which now we won't. for saddiq bey. bleh.

Game 18 (video link: Here)

Blazers (tshipman) 0-2 @ Suns (Obscura) 0-2

Starting Lineups:

Blazers

Magic Johnson
Otis Birdsong
Scottie Pippen
Dennis Rodman
Bill Walton

Suns

Tim Hardaway
Ray Allen
Billy Cunningham
Tim Duncan
Bill Russell

Synopsis:

The first quarter was a strange one, as both teams shot 52% from the field but also were content to take the air out of the ball, using up a lot of clock on each possession. The Blazers were led by a red hot Magic Johnson, who scored 10 points on 4-5 shooting and dazzled the crowd with a pair of nifty dimes. On the other end, the Suns kept feeding the big men, as Tim Duncan and Bill Russell combined for 14 points. At the end of the quarter, the Blazers led 28-25. In quarter #2, Magic discovered that Tim Hardaway flat out couldn’t guard him. Magic drove the lane at will, racking up both buckets and fouls. It was maybe the most dominant quarter of play so far in this tournament, as he scored 17 points. For the Suns, Duncan continued his strong play but the rest of the team, particularly the guards, didn’t shoot well as the Blazers extended their lead to 56-45. Basketball, they say, is a game of adjustments and the key 2nd half adjustment in this game was Bill Russell would rotate more quickly to a driving Magic, blocking a Magic layup attempt on three separate occasions. With their leader stifled, the Blazers went ice cold and fell behind 82-71 after three. Defense and Bill Walton’s overall effort sparked the comeback attempt and the Blazers almost came all the way back. Almost. Otis Birdsong missed a free throw attempt with 2:17 left that would have tied the game. Birdsong also had a turnover and a missed shot on the next two possessions. Still, the game was in reach all the way to the end. Scottie Pippen took a corner three with six seconds remaining that would have tied the game. It didn’t connect and the Suns escaped with the win. Final score: Suns 102 (1-2), Blazers 98 (0-3).

Key stat:

The Suns grabbed 15 offensive rebounds, nearly doubling the Blazers’s 8.

Nail in the coffin:

Pippen might have been tired

Player of the game:

Tim Duncan scored 33 points on 24 shots to go with his 16 rebounds.

Strong in defeat:

Magic did it all (33/7/6) but only managed six points after halftime.

The microwave:

Sure, Luka Doncic would prefer to be in the starting lineup. But really, isn’t it almost as good to have an absolute green light? Luka dropped 14 points on 14 shots in 16 minutes.

Unorthodox:

Russell Westbrook taught us that the triple double is an overrated spectacle, but I’ll be damned if it isn’t still cool. On the hunt for the tournament’s first, Bill Russell was the latest to get close, but he did things his way: 10 points, 17 rebounds, 7 blocks.

When I needed you most, you gave me your very worst:

Scottie Pippen…man. Pretty much any kind of positive contribution on the offensive end would have secured a victory. Instead, Pippen scored just four points on 1-12 shooting.

Finally, I’m adding a pair of sections that will repeat any time a team gets eliminated. In an effort to take a larger view of the newly departed team, I will incorporate stats from not just the games that I’ve previously recapped but also games that have been simmed as I roll through this 2K season.

Post mortem:

In a league where teams were jacking threes, the Blazers were ill-equipped to keep up. Hitting 7.9 triples per game, the Blazers sit next to last in the league in that category, registering barely half as many as the league leaders. The team had three players with EFG% under 55% (Wallace 53%, Pippen 53%, and Rodman 41%), meaning that teams with defensive deficiencies generally only needed to focus on three players at a time, and the Blazers didn’t dominate the glass as much as one might have thought (4th in RPG, only 6th in DREB%). Scottie Pippen, in particular, was not a star. His PER of 14.7 ranked 5th on the team and about 65th in a league of 140 players.

Were they screwed by 2K?

Yeah, some. At a macro level, the Blazers sit 18-20 in the 2K sim with a positive point differential, so they definitely weren’t worthy of being the first team eliminated. The team also suffered from bad luck, as all three of their tournament games were on the road and two of their tournament opponents specialized in big man strategies, minimizing the Blazers’ propensities for rebounding. The team would have been greatly improved by leaning more on Byron Scott, who has a pair of incongruous stats: 70% TS%, 12 minutes per game. Ultimately, however, this was not a team likely to win under modern NBA settings. Put them in 2K’s 1980s paradigm, and I suspect they would fare better.

The next game will be the last contest featuring two undefeated teams, as the 3-0 Heat (JJ1986) take on the 2-0 Pistons (Slivers). Probably coming tomorrow…

Duncan, Shaq, Billups, Wade, Garnett, Kobe, Dirk, Lebron, Curry, Leonard, Giannis
Robinson, Kobe, Wallace (your choice which), Ginobili, Shaq, Pierce, Pau, Wade, Draymond, Kyrie, Durant, Siakim, Holiday

The first list are the best players on championship teams since Jordan. Second list the second best players. Dame is below average for the second list but not out of place. So yes, blame Portland for not trading for someone on the first list (or the two Wallaces).

Portland's best teams were 2013-14 and 2014-15, Dame wasn't at his peak yet but they still had LaMarcus and a solid supporting cast, and the Warriors hadn't yet arrived to lock up the West for 5 years.

The thing is, they already had the third star who could have vaulted them into the top tier of contenders during that window, who was an excellent complement to Dame and Aldridge, but Brandon Roy got hurt.

I thought about the Dominique story as a comp too, asinwreck. I think it fits.

1243 and the 8th-10th best post sum it up pretty well. There's a big gap between 10th best and say 3rd best, they're on the same contract and that's a ton of value to make up on the supporting cast. The 03 Pistons are really an exception here (side note, I think Billups has become overrated -- I really think that title is fluky and a result of 100th percentile synergy / health), nobody should expect a team with 8th-10th best as its best player to win a chip.

I think people (aside from tshipman!) are underselling the Nurkic leg fracture as a turning point for the Blazers, even though they managed to make the conference finals without him. Despite the small backcourt, they were 16th in defensive rating that season and sixth (!) the year before when they were swept by New Orleans in the first round. Since then: 27th/29th/29th/27th.

I used to think Billups was the best player on that team. But really they had 2 top 20 guys with him and Ben Wallace, and 4 top 40 guys with Rip and Sheed.

I mean, they kicked the Lakers ass and honestly probably should have beat the Spurs the next year. That can’t be handwaved away to luck.

Anthony Davis seems pretty incapable of creating his own shot the last few games.

Biyombo making AD eat a driving layup isn't something I want to be seeing.

The Lakers have already shot 27 free throws in this game, Anthony Davis only has 2 of them. Just a passive offensive game right now.

Lakers get some help from Portland and Golden State. Could have been an even better night on that front if the Hawks could have held on against the Wolves, as the Wolves win by one point.

AD seems to have realized that he's allowed to go into the paint aggressively.

Devon Booker has been so good in the second half today.

Reaves' ability to get to the line is really encouraging for his long-term outlook.

Reaves also picked up his 10th assist on a nice pass under the basket. He's doing his part.

EDIT: 11th assist on a transition ally-oop.

The Lakers shot 46 free throws today. I didn't think it was a badly officiated game and the Suns didn't really have a lot of competent bigs with Ayton out but that's a lot of free throws. Was it a case of some home cooking?

Home cooking is always a thing, but also, Reeves has taken 54 free throws in the last four games.

Last night was the first time I’ve watched a full Hawks game in earnest. I was aware of what a good shooter Trae Young is but I wasn’t aware of the level of foul manipulation he engages in. I think he got shooting foul calls from behind the arc three separate times on decidedly non basketball moves. What is this ####? And why do the refs have to play along?

the Wolves win by one point

No Ant (though rumor has it he is close), but the return of KAT. He played (which is nice) and didn't look terrible. Without Ant they really need his offense.

The refs in the TWolves/Hawks game last night were so bad that Trae pushed his baiting up to 11 because it was working. I mean, he baits, but it's not usually to that level.

It was a Ben Taylor game, the same ref that Van Vleet criticized a couple of weeks back. By the end of the game, I was ready to pay Van Vleet's fine.

As for the Lakers, their FT disparity is by far the greatest in the league at +387 (Miami is 2nd at +184).

According to reddit, much of the disparity has come since Lebron sat on the floor Jan 29th against the Celtics after that awful missed call: +239 in the 23 games since that play, shooting over 10 more FTs per game.

The Wovles whinge a lot about refereeing, and I don't know, I've watched a lot of their games and the standard seems poor, but I don't watch a lot of other games, so maybe it's more of a league wide thing?

Without Ant they really need his offense.

You don't think Taurean Prince has turned a corner?

The Wovles whinge a lot about refereeing, and I don't know, I've watched a lot of their games and the standard seems poor, but I don't watch a lot of other games, so maybe it's more of a league wide thing?

The complaining about the refereeing is a league wide thing, but it is often well deserved because the terribleness is so one-sided in the favour of certain players.

The Mavericks can protest all they want but Doncic is a little ##### who gets every call imaginable.

There are so many phantom calls that favour the offense these guys think that is normal. Except not everyone gets these phantom calls, Curry shot no free throws yesterday. The game he had more than fifty they called only one shooting foul against him, despite driving the lane time after time.

I watched the Laker game too, Reaves was getting mauled. Booker on the other hand they called a foul almost every time, he gets a favourable whistle for sure.

The larger problem is that no one seems to know what the rules are. The announcers talk about offensive players initiating contact as some kind of dispositive play, but that isn't how the game is called. The announcers themselves are grossly inconsistent on what they think is a foul. Same with verticality, if that was called consistently there would be fewer fouls, the problem is that sometimes it is used as a reason not to call a foul, some times not.

The only saving grace is that there are so many possessions that awful officiating can be overcome.

Is it just me, but I probably disagree with 15-20 calls a game, calls that I think are obviously wrong, and that isn't including the ones I can't see but look dubious on TV.

And replay doesn't help, since I disagree with the replay reviews all the time too. It is a rules problem. Either the rules are unclear or they are interpreted inconsistently.

The Mavs schedule is somewhat friendly, back to back with the Hornets and another against the Spurs, but if they fall into the play-in, would you trust them to beat two of the Lakers/Warriors/Thunder/Wolves/Clippers?

Anyway, all the betting markets have the "make the playoffs" prop paying out after the play-in tournament. Mavs "No" is paying 2/1 and I think that is way off from their true odds.

But don't listen to me I am a terrible handicapper.

The Mavericks can protest all they want but Doncic is a little ##### who gets every call imaginable.

Yesterday Looney just horse-collared him to the ground and he didn't get a call.

I don't think he gets more calls than any other superstar, especially considering he usage rate. Luka is third in the league in fouls drawn, behind Giannis and Embiid. He plays more minutes than anyone else around him, I would have expected him to lead the league in fouls drawn, though he never has.

You don't think Taurean Prince has turned a corner?

That was an amazing, once-in-a-lifetime type of game. And it came at the perfect time. Maybe the Wolves get one or two more lucky charms type games and then everything explodes into fear, loathing, and recrimination?

Just trying to figure out what the most gut-wrenching outcome would be.

Just trying to figure out what the most gut-wrenching outcome would be.

They fail to make the playoffs on the last game of the season and win the lottery, obviously.

(Miami is 2nd at +184)

My only beef with Miami and refereeing is that Bam has never one time in his life set a legal screen and he rarely gets called.

I, for one, think there are too many fouls called on my team's players and not enough fouls called on the other team's players.

I, for one, think there are too many fouls called on my team's players and not enough fouls called on the other team's players.

Bold stance!

Game 19 (video link: Here)

Heat (JJ1986) 3-0 @ Pistons (Slivers) 2-0

Starting Lineups:

Heat

Chauncey Billups
Kobe Bryant
Paul George
LeBron James
Alonzo Mourning

Pistons

Steve Nash
John Havlicek
Grant Hill
Karl Malone
Shaquille O’Neal

Synopsis:

As the world looked forward to this tournament’s marquee event, the two teams instead delivered a 90s style rock fight. The Heat set the tone early by committing four turnovers in the first quarter, a feat that paired nicely with their 1-11 three point shooting. For the Pistons, Karl Malone led a balanced attack with six points and the Pistons took a 26-19 lead into the second. The Pistons continued to focus their offense on the blocks, as O’Neal (8 points, 7 rebounds in Q2) and Malone (6 more points) led the way. With lanes clogged, the Heat continued to shoot the long ball and finally made a few, going 4-7 to keep the game close (48-40, Pistons). The third quarter needs no introduction and also no middle or end. 39 total points were scored and it was a horrific clank-fest. Down seven points at the start of the fourth, the Heat continued their dominant defensive performance and climbed into the lead with a little more than three minutes remaining. From there, paradoxically, both teams engaged in a back and forth scoring flurry that made the final score appear to be almost acceptable. Ultimately, the Pistons had one fewer productive possession in crunch time than did the Heat, and then garbage time free throws allowed the Heat to pull away. Final score: Heat 95 (4-0), Pistons 88 (2-1)

Key stat:

The Heat hit 19 of their 21 free throw attempts, which outclassed the Pistons, who shot perfectly from the line but only had 12 attempts.

Nail in the coffin:

Down three points with 27 seconds left, Coach Dwane Casey called for his team to foul. The move backfired, as Kobe hit both shots to salt the game away.

Player of the game:

Alonzo Mourning had 15 points (on 5-8 shooting), 19 rebounds, 5 blocks, and two times pointing to a flexed bicep as he ran back on defense after a successful dunk.

Strong in defeat:

Shaq was Zo’s equal, posting a 28/17/3 line, with four blocked shots.

Obligatory Timberwolves reference:

Mourning and O’Neal were the stars of this game, while Christian Laettner didn’t even make a roster.

Glue guy:

In a storyline that I’m confident has been in play previously, LeBron led the team in nothing except +/- (12/8/2, 4-8 shooting, +19). Would a prime LeBron be so deferential to his teammates were he surrounded by this much talent? Seems plausible but either way, he definitely holds this team together without being flashy.

Hondo? More like Hon-no:

John Havlicek hit an early three and probably yapped a little to Kobe. Big mistake. Hondo finished the game with six points on 2-16 shooting, including an impressive 2-12 from deep.

Next up is a matchup of 1-1 teams as the Hawks (Dolf Lucky) meet the Thunder (NJ). Probably coming tomorrow…

Clippers are 38-35, the Jazz in 11 are 35-37.

They have 9 games left and have a barely positive rating with Kawhi and no PG.

Are they possibly in trouble?

Kobe being Kobe.

Zo with the second-chance bucket, then blocks Shaq on the other end. PnR with Billups.

Shaq with the put back, then the block on the other end. Beautiful dish out of the double-team with the shot clock winding down. Dunk.

Lebron + 1.

Hondo to Malone.

PG with a late 3, then the back-breaker.

Shaq in crunch time. And for the tie.

Kobe off the curl for 2 of his 11 4the quarter points.

Suns are 38-34 with no Durant and no Ayton. They've played like garbage for 6 games (1-5, with the only win by 3 points over the Magic at home)

Mavs are 36-37 and on a 5-11 run starting with an OT loss to Sacramento and Kyrie doesn't look like a good compliment to Luka.

Lakers are 36-37 with no LeBron. They've been impressively holding on without him, but it's better to have LeBron than not.

Wolves are 37-37 with no Ant and KAT is back but can he play with Gobert?

Which is to say, the Clippers are in trouble, but so are the Suns, Mavs, Lakers, and Wolves, and they can't all miss the play-in.

Mavs are 36-37 and on a 5-11 run starting with an OT loss to Sacramento and Kyrie doesn't look like a good compliment to Luka.

I believe they're 8-11 since the trade if I counted correctly, and I think I saw last night that they're 3-6 when Kyrie and Doncic play together (I'm not checking that so might be wrong).

You continue to hate to see it.

You continue to hate to see it.

It would be heartbreaking were they to #### the bed and then have Kyrie leave in a fit of pique. I would be Very Sad if that happened. Very. Very. Sad.

Which is to say, the Clippers are in trouble, but so are the Suns, Mavs, Lakers, and Wolves, and they can't all miss the play-in.

I think Silver should invoke emergency powers and simply kick every team in the west below 4 out of the playoffs.

Home cooking is always a thing, but also, Reeves has taken 54 free throws in the last four games.

Bench guys don't get many entire episodes of Thinking Basketball dedicated to them, but Austin Reaves got one today.

It's wild that Markelle Fultz is only 24. Props to him for turning his career around.

I sorta think the nature of the game of basketball makes it impossible to be officiated in a manner that would ever make everyone happy so I don't think about it too much? Are the current refs doing a good/bad job compared to what can be reasonably expected? I have no idea and don't think I'd ever have an idea. So I guess I just let it go. And I'm real bad about letting stuff go.

Of course, the team I pull for hasn't played a meaningful game in going on two decades so if that ever changes maybe I won't be so able to let it go.

Game 20 (video link: Here)

Hawks (Dolf Lucky) 1-1 @ Thunder (NJ) 1-1

Starting Lineups:

Hawks

Jason Kidd
James Harden
Peja Stojakovic
Kevin Garnett
Dikembe Mutombo

Thunder

Steph Curry
Reggie Miller
George Gervin
Kevin McHale
Dwight Howard

Synopsis:

We’re now about halfway through this replay and I don’t think we’ve seen, nor do I think we’ll see again, a mismatch as bad as James Harden trying to guard Reggie Miller. There are size mismatches that happen all the time and obviously some ball handlers are nigh impossible to guard. But Miller, king of running around the court looking for back screens, against Harden, king of trying to be as sedentary as possible on defense, was a major problem for the Hawks. In the first quarter, Miller had 14 points on just six shots, as Steph Curry kept finding him in highly advantageous spots on the court. The embarrassment clearly rattled Harden, who hit just one of his eight three pointers in the quarter, and the Hawks found themselves down 36-19 after the first. The second quarter was marked by three players. Curry’s deep ball wasn’t very effective in this game, but he found ways to score 10 points in the 2nd without hitting a single three. Russell Westbrook was highly efficient in the first half, as he put up 15 points on only seven shots. And on the other side, Kevin Garnett scored 10 points in the second after going scoreless in the first. At the half, the Thunder led 66-54. The shots started falling for the Hawks early in the third and they were able to cut the deficit to five points before losing the ground they had made up, despite the Thunder going pretty cold in the quarter. Heading into the final period, it was 88-76, Thunder. In the fourth, an active KG kept the Hawks alive, even as Reggie Miller continued to score. Several times down the stretch, it looked like the Thunder’s lead was too big to overcome only for a big stop and score by the Hawks. With the lead down to four points in the final minute, Peja Stojakovic got a great 18 foot look but the shot rimmed out and the Thunder coasted home with a win. Final score: Thunder 114 (2-1), Hawks 106 (1-2).

Key stat:

The Thunder’s bench unit out scored their counterparts 34-16

Nail in the coffin:

Peja’s miss and the subsequent free throws from Curry.

Player of the game:

Reggie Miller had a wild line of 38/0/2, shooting 13-19 overall and 4-8 from long range.

Strong in defeat:

KG had 22 points and 13 boards, and was an insane 11-13 from the floor.

Unstoppable:

Russell Westbrook played the part of 6th man to perfection as no one on the Hawks backup unit could stop him. Westbrook scored 20 points in 19 minutes on 16 shots.

Agent of chaos:

Harden’s defensive struggles were already chronicled, but he was horribly inefficient on offense as well. His 34/4/6 line (plus 3 steals) came at the expense of 39 shots, 30 of which were beyond the arc. And yet, despite all the poor play, he registered a +1 on the night. I think one element of this is that on a team built to grab offensive rebounds, Harden’s long range shots are not as damaging to the team, since Mutombo and KG get plenty of put back buckets.

Superman? Maybe really good man:

Dwight Howard had 14 points and 12 rebounds on 7-11 shooting but he also effectively clogged the lane to prevent the Hawks from rim running too often. Howard’s defensive efficacy was most noticeable when he was on the bench, as Chris Bosh seemed to have trouble doing the same.

Our next game matches the 2-1 Celtics (Winter) and the 1-1 Warriors (JTSports). Likely up on Monday…

His 34/4/6 line (plus 3 steals) came at the expense of 39 shots, 30 of which were beyond the arc.

!!!

Out of curiousity, I looked up Harden's real-life high in 3-pt attempts, and it's 23 (he made 10, and scored 44 points in an overtime win).

Ha! I just looked it up…the most 3PA in any game is Klay with 24. The Hawks are at the vanguard of a new movement over here…

Dikembe and Dwight trade dunks.

Peja from the corner.

Reggie gets the shooter's roll. Later, a three off the curl, same play next possession but to the basket.

Look at Westbrook go.

KG works inside, finishes from Harden, finds Mutumbo out of the double.

Dwight with another oop, then flies in for the put back, and again.

Harden bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks,bricks, bricks, bricks, bricks.

The Lakers have climbed Mount .500!

Imagine the amount of Haterade that will flow if the Mavs lose in the 9-10 game or even miss the play-in entirely.

With Paul George out and the Clippers going 1-2 against the Thunder and the Pelicans, the play-in tournament has become a possibility.

How concerned are Celtic fans about recent Jaylen Brown event re: his long-term future with the team?

r/BostonCeltics has been wild lately when it comes to Brown.

wow, mavs lost 2 to the hornets.

and luka got his 16th T so he's not playing at indiana.

This wild loss drops the Mavs out of the play-in round. They are, for the moment, .5 games behind OKC for 10th.

LeBron's back today.

Andre Drummond really dominating inside early, 8 points on 4-5 shooting with rebounds (2 offensive) in only 8 minutes. He is +15 in 8 minutes as the Bulls lead by 15 points early in the second.

The Lakers shaved a 20-point deficit down to 8 points. Lebron looks as strong as ever in his first game back, but a step slow.

Will this Mav meltdown have ANY effect on Irving getting a big contract after the season?

Looks like the Bulls are way too much for the Lakers today.

Will this Mav meltdown have ANY effect on Irving getting a big contract after the season?

He is doing what should have been expected of him. Is it his fault that they don't have very many competent wing defenders/bigs?

Just wondering how the league will react. Superficially the team cratered when he showed up plus the other day his comments came across as telling fans to #### off

But he will likely get seriously paid by someone

Just wondering how the league will react. Superficially the team cratered when he showed up plus the other day his comments came across as telling fans to #### off

He's averaging 27/6/5 on 50/40/95 shooting with the Mavericks so his play has not been a problem.

With respect to attitude and off the court stuff, I don't think anything he has done in Dallas would change your attitude about him one way or the other.

Lakers lose a game against the Bulls. Bulls just shot really well and the Lakers didn't. Lakers were sloppy with the ball and the ball didn't bounce their way. Anthony Davis got into foul trouble and oddly didn't get as many shot attempts as you'd like especially considering Vucevic got ejected in the first half.

It annoys me that Patrick Beverley will talk smack after this game.

LeBron did look good for the most part physically although perhaps a bit rusty. One thing that's going to be interesting is to see how the playing time for the non-LBJ and AD players on the roster. Rui didn't play at all today even though D-Lo didn't play.

I really wanted the Lakers to win today so their might be a chance to get into the 6th spot. Now, I have to worry about them not making the play-in again. Every game is that bad.

1298--Does he score enough that his defensive deficiencies aren't a big issue? Because at 30 it's not like his his defense will get better. So if a team signs him for multiple years (which I think is a given) then you have to think a 33 year old Kyrie is worse on defense than he is now.