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Monday, January 09, 2023

2023 NBA Regular Season Thread

I estimate that this new thread should have been posted 10-12 days ago, at least.

Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: January 09, 2023 at 11:55 AM | 1285 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: basketball, future first round picks, nba, off-topic

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201. jmurph Posted: January 29, 2023 at 09:33 AM (#6114957)

Ridiculous no call, obviously.

The Celtics aren't great at the moment, they look like they have no energy for long stretches, luckily just 4+ more months of the season/playoffs so it should be fine.

202. Moeball Posted: January 29, 2023 at 05:39 PM (#6115044)

Fortunately Boston won't have to worry about facing Orlando in the playoffs.

203. spivey Posted: January 29, 2023 at 06:43 PM (#6115067)

Watched the first half of the Indiana/Bucks game. Obviously Indiana is not a good basketball team without Halliburton, but Middleton looks good. This has been such a weird year. I don't think any of the best teams can really feel like they've put their best foot forward this season for long stretches of it.

204. PJ Martinez Posted: January 29, 2023 at 06:54 PM (#6115070)

Hollinger: "As of this morning, top SIX teams in West have never been to Finals before"

As in: not one of those *franchises* has ever been to the Finals, which seems kind of wild.

205. PJ Martinez Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:36 PM (#6115104)

No. 204 was still true when I posted it!

1 game between the 4 and 9 seeds out West. 3 games between 5 and 13. Crazy.

206. jmurph Posted: January 30, 2023 at 07:47 AM (#6115110)

This has been such a weird year. I don't think any of the best teams can really feel like they've put their best foot forward this season for long stretches of it.

I can't find it now but I saw a tweet yesterday that the current SRS leader, the Celtics at 5.13, would be the lowest in a while (not sure exactly how long- I clicked back and gave up at the 2011-12 season).

207. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 30, 2023 at 08:36 AM (#6115113)

I can't find it now but I saw a tweet yesterday that the current SRS leader, the Celtics at 5.13, would be the lowest in a while (not sure exactly how long- I clicked back and gave up at the 2011-12 season).

This isn't for SRS but think a pretty cool visual showing how bunched it is here: https://twitter.com/tvbassine/status/1619727931584155648

Sam Hinkie Memorial Dot at the bottom.

EDIT - And replies discuss how Stars Missing Time could affect this. I hadn't really thought of that. It probably could affect the upper net rating being lower but do think it's a new era of close-ness at the top.

208. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:39 AM (#6115119)

BetOnline NBA Title Odds/Top Two Player Net Ratings (per Cleaning the Glass):

+400 Celtics - Tatum/Brown +4.7, 2,359 possessions
+750 Bucks - Giannis/Holiday +10.1, 1,537 possessions
+750 Nuggets - Jokic/Murray, +13.1, 1,987 possessions
+800 Nets - Durant/Irving, +6.0, 1,615 possessions
+900 Warriors - Curry/Green, +7.4, 1,923 possessions
+1100 Grizzlies - Ja/JJJ, +16.9, 1,090 possessions
+1100 Sixers - Embiid/Harden, +9.1, 1507 possessions
+1200 Clippers - Kawhi/George, +10.8, 994 possessions
+2000 Lakers - James/Davis, +0.8, 1,113 possessions
+2000 Pelicans - Zion/Ingram, +17.3, 497 possessions
+2000 Suns - Booker/Paul, +7.8, 706 possessions

Don't know what I was looking for but felt like looking this up to avoid doing work. Surprised that Lakers duo is so low but probably shouldn't be. (edit - honestly started doing this to look up Sixers then initially forgot to include the Sixers)

Obviously not apples-to-apples comparisons here with such differing numbers of possessions.

209. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 30, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6115132)

Remind me how playoff seeding works: Miami is leading the SE and has the #6 record in the East. Do Division winners get an automatic top-4 and/or homecourt in the first round?

210. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 30, 2023 at 10:55 AM (#6115136)

Also: Myles Turner signed an extension, so I guess he won't be traded this season.

211. spivey Posted: January 30, 2023 at 11:33 AM (#6115141)

Random thing I need to get out there. Thanasis absolutely should not be allowed to play in the NBA. Dude has no control over his body and has been involved in countless dirty plays this season. He's going to get someone really hurt. I think he's easily the most dirty player in the NBA.

212. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 30, 2023 at 11:44 AM (#6115144)

If I'm reading Wikipedia right winning the division basically means nothing for the Heat for playoff seeding.

213. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: January 30, 2023 at 12:14 PM (#6115149)

Thanks! My morbid curiosity was really about what would happen if a Division winner was in the play-in range. In general, even though Divisions don't matter, the Division winner is usually a well-above average team. Lowest I could find recently was the 2019 Magic, who won their division but had only the 7th best record in the East. They played #2 Toronto, another Division winner, in the first round.

214. /muteself 57i66135 Posted: January 30, 2023 at 02:20 PM (#6115169)

Don't know what I was looking for but felt like looking this up to avoid doing work. Surprised that Lakers duo is so low but probably shouldn't be. (edit - honestly started doing this to look up Sixers then initially forgot to include the Sixers)

yeah, i was gonna say: if the sixers aren't better than 20:1 to win the title, people need to start pounding that one at the window, because it is amazing value (for a team that will still almost certainly not make it out of the 2nd round).

215. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: January 30, 2023 at 02:48 PM (#6115173)

on thanasis... to me there's a difference between "dirty" with control and intent versus "dirty" when you're just wild and reckless out there. (i was both kinds of dirty as a player (if you can call pickup/rec league/etc... playing), to be fair.)
thanasis is definitely the latter, i don't think he's the former.
my question to the group is -- does the distinction matter? which is worse? and so on...

216. /muteself 57i66135 Posted: January 30, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6115176)

Random thing I need to get out there. Thanasis absolutely should not be allowed to play in the NBA. Dude has no control over his body and has been involved in countless dirty plays this season. He's going to get someone really hurt. I think he's easily the most dirty player in the NBA.

if it makes you feel a little less on edge, players have noticed.

i still don't think he's dirtier than jokic.

on thanasis... to me there's a difference between "dirty" with control and intent versus "dirty" when you're just wild and reckless out there. (i was both kinds of dirty as a player (if you can call pickup/rec league/etc... playing), to be fair.)
thanasis is definitely the latter, i don't think he's the former.
my question to the group is -- does the distinction matter? which is worse? and so on...

long answer: yes, with a "though..."
short answer: no, with a "but..."

217. DCA Posted: January 30, 2023 at 04:57 PM (#6115190)

Also: Myles Turner signed an extension, so I guess he won't be traded this season.

Can he be traded? Is it disallowed for X days since he extended and thus impossible before the deadline, or it is just unlikely because Indy is going to want to keep him?

218. Hombre Brotani

Posted: January 30, 2023 at 06:56 PM (#6115202)

My body clock is 180 everyone else's right now, so I only just now watched Lakers-Celtics. All I can say is that this is why you work to get home court in the playoffs.

219. Mike A Posted: January 30, 2023 at 08:33 PM (#6115206)

the tech by Beverly is not something you need when you are trying to win a game in overtime

As a sports photographer, Beverly showing the camera/photo to the ref was the most interesting aspect of the whole end-of-the-game mess.

There have certainly been times where I have caught a penalty/foul on film and I've wanted to show coaches, refs, the world, etc. what really happened, but you have to be professional and keep it to yourself. Refs make mistakes, and it's not your place.

From what I understand, Beverly asked if anyone had captured the foul on film and one of the photographers showed him a photo of the contact on LeBron (a big no-no, imo). Beverly then hijacked the camera of the none-too-pleased photographer to show the ref. Wouldn't be surprised if the photographer caught some serious heat for that one, which makes me even less of a fan of Beverly if that's possible.

220. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 30, 2023 at 10:58 PM (#6115225)

Luka for 53 including 12 of 13 from two. Mavs barely beat the Pistons at home. Sums up the Mavs.

221. smileyy Posted: January 30, 2023 at 11:18 PM (#6115227)

Luka really benefitted from Christian Wood in the lineup.

222. Howie Menckel Posted: January 30, 2023 at 11:31 PM (#6115228)

From what I understand, Beverly asked if anyone had captured the foul on film and one of the photographers showed him a photo of the contact on LeBron (a big no-no, imo).

30 years ago, this could happen with traveling NBA beat reporters as well - because they sat courtside.

basically, you're a lamp post (or if you prefer, a basket stanchion) in that situation. they can ask you all the questions they want, and no response. period.

there once was a season-ending game where a player was asking us - while he's at midcourt in the middle of a play (admittedly in a meaningless game, for playoff seeding purposes) - what he needed to do to clinch a certain stat category.

nobody even flinched.

no doubt a lot has changed over time (and writers have been sitting in the rafters for decades now), but I'd be surprised if that standard is one of those changes.

223. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 31, 2023 at 07:52 AM (#6115242)

Tough loss for the Wovles last night. Also it’s insane that a one game swing is the difference between fourth and ninth?

224. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: January 31, 2023 at 07:57 AM (#6115243)

that pat bev tech was delightful. (as a neutral party fan. obv, he shouldn't do that.)

225. asinwreck Posted: January 31, 2023 at 09:03 AM (#6115247)

Congratulations to Joe Mazzulla. Has an interim coach ever coached an ASG before?

226. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 31, 2023 at 10:40 AM (#6115263)

Tough loss for the Wovles last night. Also it’s insane that a one game swing is the difference between fourth and ninth?

Mostly I am happy that Ant is taking the leap we hoped he would take. His overall level of play has really jumped up, especially his consistency. Having Ant play on the ball has worked out better than I hoped it would. He still has (much) work to do on defense, but overall he is continuing on the path people hoped for when he was drafted.

227. DCA Posted: January 31, 2023 at 11:09 AM (#6115269)

Has an interim coach ever coached an ASG before?

Did Luke Walton coach the year that Kerr missed the first half with a back injury and the Warriors went 39-4 in his absense? I honestly have never paid attention to who coaches the ASG.

228. asinwreck Posted: January 31, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6115275)

Neither have I; the circumstances of the Celtics' coaching job this season are just so odd. From looking at Wikipedia, Walton missed out to Mike D'Antoni in 2018.

229. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: January 31, 2023 at 12:37 PM (#6115277)

Mostly I am happy that Ant is taking the leap we hoped he would take. His overall level of play has really jumped up, especially his consistency. Having Ant play on the ball has worked out better than I hoped it would. He still has (much) work to do on defense, but overall he is continuing on the path people hoped for when he was drafted.

He is looking much better, to me, than I expected. Like the game is slowing down for him in a real way. And his shot looks very good.

230. SamHaggertyFan Posted: January 31, 2023 at 08:13 PM (#6115346)

From looking at Wikipedia, Walton missed out to Mike D'Antoni in 2018.

It was 2015-16 that Walton served as acting head coach. Kerr returned prior to the All-Star break and was ineligible to coach the West because he'd done so the previous season.

231. asinwreck Posted: January 31, 2023 at 09:19 PM (#6115350)

Good lord, I forgot it was that long ago. Thanks.

232. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: January 31, 2023 at 10:40 PM (#6115354)

That's it. I'm done. Blow up this Bulls team. DeRozan first, then Vuc. Let lavine get healthy and put up pointless numbers and trade him in the off-season. You want coby white, you can have him.

It'll hurt, but go ahead and trade Caruso too. Probably can get more for him than anyone else anyway.

Let's see how many rebounds Drummond can get playing 36 minutes on that team, just for shits. Make Patrick williams put up or shut up being a #2 option (he will definitely shut up).

233. tshipman

Posted: January 31, 2023 at 10:49 PM (#6115358)

Here's the video the Bulls will send you if you ask about the price for Caruso.

234. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: January 31, 2023 at 10:55 PM (#6115361)

He does #### like that multiple times every game. He's unreal.

3 first round picks, who's in?

235. asinwreck Posted: January 31, 2023 at 11:05 PM (#6115366)

Perhaps the Knicks, if Thibs remains as frustrated about his team's defense. They have draft picks, if they're willing to trade them.

It sure seems like the Bulls are waiting out Lonzo Ball's knee. I'd rather see Beckett plays at the Goodman than the United Center.

236. tshipman

Posted: January 31, 2023 at 11:09 PM (#6115367)

Speaking of Lonzo's knee:

[Joe Cowley on the Bernstein & Holmes Show] The Chicago Bulls don’t know why Lonzo Ball is still feeling pain in his knee. The medical staff doesn’t know why there is still pain. Lonzo and his camp also don’t know why. Lonzo has had at least 6 opinions from doctors.

237. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: January 31, 2023 at 11:45 PM (#6115369)

Primer RT:

The Bulls have lost games with blown leads of 21, 21, 19, and 16 in the month of January alone.

Joe Cowley

Total piece of #### ####### columnist. I still don't know if he actually has sources with the Bulls or not. I believe this comment though.

238. jmurph Posted: February 01, 2023 at 07:37 AM (#6115372)

Here's the video the Bulls will send you if you ask about the price for Caruso.

I understand it didn't start that way but once Caruso gets on Powell I think the Clippers have to adjust there so they're not intentionally getting Chicago's best defender switched onto Kawhi? That was dumb basketball.

239. aberg Posted: February 01, 2023 at 09:23 AM (#6115374)

He is looking much better, to me, than I expected. Like the game is slowing down for him in a real way. And his shot looks very good.

The thing that has impressed me the most is that his playmaking has come along so quickly. I thought that there would be more growing pains when he started playing on ball more often- a stretch of higher turnovers without much improved playmaking and slowly developing from there. The growing pains lasted for like 2 week after KAT got hurt and then he took a huge step forward on his playmaking.

Wolves were 4th in the league defensive rating in January. When the rotation is Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-SloMo-Rudy-Rivers-Prince-Naz, Russell is the only bad defender in the group. Edwards is still learning to be a useful defender off ball but has some really good moments on-ball. Reid is a bit of a tweener but works hard and defends pretty well as long as the opponent doesn't have someone way bigger and stronger than him.

Team is 11-5 in last 16, counting the OT loss to SAC last time out. That's a good run. Feels like they're getting a better idea of how to defend with Rudy as the backline, and DLo has shot well lately, which helps even out everything he gives back by dying on every screen. The way the west is going, it feels like there's probably enough there to get out of the play-in, but that's not a good result for the season. Bigger issue is that KAT remains out, nobody knows when he can come back, and the whole team has to re-learn how to play when he finally does get back.

240. aberg Posted: February 01, 2023 at 09:28 AM (#6115375)

Adding some numbers to back up what I was saying about Edwards. YoY changes in rates- +12.1% AST, +10.9% USG, +10.6 TO (also +25.3% TRB, which is great).

241. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:11 AM (#6115376)

That Anderson pick up was so smart. If only they'd ended their dealing there.

242. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:17 AM (#6115378)

I still think they should deal DLo. Not for a talent upgrade (not going to happen) or even to better manage their cap going forward (though that would be nice), but for role/rotation players that better fit the team. DLo is playing really well, his shooting the last month or so has been the best in his career (playing more off-ball seems to help him), so maybe you can get something. If not, I suppose you keep him for now. But I don't like his fit long term, even shooting as he is.

243. jmurph Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:20 AM (#6115379)

Bigger issue is that KAT remains out, nobody knows when he can come back, and the whole team has to re-learn how to play when he finally does get back.

Or, what if...

I'm sure they won't do it, but I would be interested in seeing what the market is for Towns.

244. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6115381)

I mean, that is the only way out at this point? If the Towns/Gobert fit is as bad as it's looked, you're not recouping a lot of value for Rudy, and you sure aren't going near Edwards or McDaniels, so ...

245. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:43 AM (#6115383)

I'm sure they won't do it, but I would be interested in seeing what the market is for Towns.

They cannot trade Towns until the offseason. Like against the rules cannot.

246. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:49 AM (#6115384)

The whole team is now playing better with Gobert. Things, while still awkward at points, are looking better. I am virtually certain that the front office wants to let the Gobert & Towns experiment play out longer.

The best case (IMO) is that Towns comes back from injury, and as he ramps up he can slot in behind Edwards as the lead dog. Then it becomes clear that, yes, even once Towns is back and up to speed, Edwards is the lead dog. They can certainly use many of the skills Towns has as a great shooter and his offensive skills in general. Before on offense Towns clearly worked hard to fit in with Gobert.

It is, as usual, defense that is the question with Towns. Which is one reason I want to get rid of DLo. You can survive one meh player on defense way better than two. It is not linear to my eye.

247. jmurph Posted: February 01, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6115393)

They cannot trade Towns until the offseason. Like against the rules cannot.

Wait can he even be traded next season? The extension doesn't kick in until 24-25.

EDIT: Think I found the answer. One full year from the date the extension is signed, it seems, which was July 7, 2022.

248. spivey Posted: February 01, 2023 at 12:39 PM (#6115396)

Speaking of trades - it sounds like per Bobby Marks/Lowe, Myles Turner can be traded immediately due to his salary not increasing too much. That said, I think they just signed him because they think he fits well next to their 2 guards, which I tend to agree with.

249. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: February 01, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6115406)

Let's see how many rebounds Drummond can get playing 36 minutes on that team, just for shits.

I fell into a Kevin Willis rabbit hole on BKREF, and found this amazing game: Atlanta 127, Portland 118. Hawks had three double-digit scorers, Dominique Wilkins: 48
Kevin Willis: 32 + 25 rebounds
Stacey Augmon: 19

Blazers had three guys in double figures:
Porter 23
Drexler 23
Cliff Robinson 39

Augmon had a weird career, he spent five years with the Hawks as a starter from day one and averaged 14 points with okay defense, then spent 11 more seasons as a nomad scrub, only averaging 20 MPG twice more.

250. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 01, 2023 at 02:05 PM (#6115408)

Was he ever on a team as good as his college team?

251. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: February 01, 2023 at 02:40 PM (#6115410)

The plastic man!

252. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: February 01, 2023 at 02:59 PM (#6115414)

Short answer, no, but the 93-94 Hawks had the #1 seed in the East. That was the year they traded Dominique for Danny Manning at the deadline, a trade that confuses me to this day.

253. Mike A Posted: February 01, 2023 at 03:07 PM (#6115415)

True story: Stacey Augmon sat behind me at a Village People concert after a Hawks game. He couldn't really fit in those awful Omni seats, and didn't stay long. He did not partake in the YMCA.

Had high hopes for him coming out of UNLV, but (much like De'Andre Hunter) didn't really live up to his hype as a great defensive player. He was..OK.

I too have fallen down the Kevin Willis rabbit hole before. The craziest thing to me is he played 20+ seasons, is 9th in career total games - and has a career VORP of -1.0.

254. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: February 01, 2023 at 04:08 PM (#6115423)

Augmon: Hunter is a good analogy. I remember Stacey as being a good offensive rebounder, and his rate in Atlanta was 7.4% vs a league average of 5.5-6%.

In modern news, hey, LeBron is less than 100 points away from passing Kareem.

255. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: February 01, 2023 at 05:11 PM (#6115427)

I loved how short Kevin Willis' arms were.

256. asinwreck Posted: February 01, 2023 at 05:31 PM (#6115429)

True story: Stacey Augmon sat behind me at a Village People concert after a Hawks game. He couldn't really fit in those awful Omni seats, and didn't stay long. He did not partake in the YMCA.

I need to hear much more about this evening.

257. asinwreck Posted: February 01, 2023 at 07:58 PM (#6115449)

The Celtics appear to be up for the Nets visit. 30-7 with 5 left in the 1st.

EDIT: Celtics have a 30-point lead at the end of the 1st quarter.

258. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 01, 2023 at 08:51 PM (#6115452)

Cs blew the Nets doors off in the first running the "make everything" offense. Mazzulla should simply run that every game.

259. SamHaggertyFan Posted: February 01, 2023 at 08:55 PM (#6115454)

I loved how short Kevin Willis' arms were.

And yet not the shortest arms on the Hawks in the early 90s!

260. Mike A Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:21 PM (#6115463)

I need to hear much more about this evening.

The Hawks weren't drawing well, so they tried to entice fans to buy tickets by occasionally adding concerts after games. For whatever reason, they got the Village People to do one. I'm guessing this was around 1994-1995, perhaps post-Dominique?

We had pretty good seats, and out of the blue, Augmon (by himself) walked up and sat behind us, presumably after his post-game shower. You could tell he didn't know what to make of the Village People. Heck, who does know what to make of the Village People? In their defense, they were pretty entertaining and put on a fun - though kinda surreal - show.

My girlfriend-at-the-time was annoyed because Stacey kneed her a few times. As noted, he looked uncomfortable with both the music and the small seats and left after a few songs.

I can find nothing about this concert online.

261. aberg Posted: February 02, 2023 at 02:45 AM (#6115471)

True story: Stacey Augmon sat behind me at a Village People concert after a Hawks game.

In a bizarrely similar story, someone on reddit said that they saw Naz Reid going to see Women Talking on the Wolves' off day this week.

262. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 02, 2023 at 08:23 AM (#6115476)

259 - so what i don't get about that moses drawing is ... he didn't have short arms (iirc, his wingspan was +4 or so?). why did they choose a t rex?

that tari eason sequence last night was glorious.

i thought augmon was gonna be a special defender too (to be fair, he was above average as a pro, just not more than that). ah well.
those unlv teams were awfully fun.

263. tshipman

Posted: February 02, 2023 at 11:04 AM (#6115484)

259 - so what i don't get about that moses drawing is ... he didn't have short arms (iirc, his wingspan was +4 or so?). why did they choose a t rex?

I think it's just supposed to be that he was old. He was the last guy left from the ABA, so a dinosaur.

264. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: February 02, 2023 at 11:28 AM (#6115488)

duh, thanks tship
sleepy brain over here

265. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: February 02, 2023 at 11:43 AM (#6115489)

Wovles looking competent.

266. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:00 PM (#6115492)

Going to leave these here just so I can see them in 8 days to see if the trade deadline (and a week of games or injuries) makes any noticeable difference. I can't see it doing so immediately:

Pinnacle Title Odds
+365 Celtics
+683 Nuggets
+773 Bucks
+777 Nets
+946 Warriors
+1003 Grizzlies
+1253 Clippers
+1379 Sixers
+1856 Suns
+2008 Cavs
+2207 Pelicans
+3110 Mavericks
+4007 Heat
+4014 Lakers
+5156 Kings

267. PJ Martinez Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:11 PM (#6115494)

What do people think of Anunoby? He seems to be emerging as the big trade-deadline target. And I gather that he's maybe playing the best defense of his career; he's obviously a guy who you can slot into just about any lineup. He's also not *that* young and doesn't really seem to have improved offensively in the past three years?

268. tshipman

Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:16 PM (#6115495)

Clippers seem too high. Cavs seem like they are a value pick. Nuggets are super hard to evaluate for me.

***

What do people think of Anunoby? He seems to be emerging as the big trade-deadline target. And I gather that he's maybe playing the best defense of his career; he's obviously a guy who you can slot into just about any lineup. He's also not *that* young and doesn't really seem to have improved offensively in the past three years?

Good player, but a role player. Weird to me that there's talk he might fetch 3 firsts. I think he's not as good as Caruso in the role player class, but I gather that POV is not widely held.

I think Anunoby is a guy who checks boxes. He's a good shooter, he's a good defender, he can move the ball. I think the sum of the parts is a bit less.

269. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:27 PM (#6115496)

Anunoby also has size, which I think is a big part of the appeal. Given how much the NBA Podcastiverse talks about "your big 3-D wing" of which I mean, come on there are like four of them worth worrying about, Anunoby is a good choice to defend your Kawahis Leonard.

270. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:32 PM (#6115497)

I think Anunoby is a guy who checks boxes. He's a good shooter, he's a good defender, he can move the ball. I think the sum of the parts is a bit less.

My immediate thought was that Anunoby is like a wing version of Derrick White, and could be similarly useful to a contender that picks him up. A player with no real weaknesses but also no singular strengths. A wing that works with a lot of lineups and would provide some defense and versatility without taking much off the table. (Almost identical contracts, too.) White cost a salary, a young player with injury issues but some (limited) upside and an almost-unprotected pick swap. That was a deal, I think, but three firsts is a much steeper price even accounting for the defensive value of a wing compared to a guard in today's NBA.

271. spivey Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:52 PM (#6115498)

I think Anunoby is about as bad of an offensive player as a wing who scores 17 points a game on average efficiency can be.

I'd push back on the good shooting. Though his 3pt% is technically above average, 44% of his 3s come from the corner, and 97% of his 3s are assisted. If you look at his shooting numbers from 3-10, 10-16, and 16-3P he's like a 33% shooter. He's nothing but a 2 level scorer who can't create against any meaningful defense. He's not a good passer, he has a A:TO ratio below 1 this year.

And yeah, having a BIG WANG mattered more when you had to go through LeBron literally every year, and also likely had to go through another guy like Kawhi, etc. The landscape is different right now.

I'd probably still take Anunoby over Caruso because you have to worry that Caruso will just stop shooting 3s on you in a playoff series which can kill an offense. But Caruso is a better passer, defender, and all around player imo.

272. PJ Martinez Posted: February 02, 2023 at 12:54 PM (#6115499)

I was sort of comparing him in my mind with White, too, FTO. Anunoby is younger and taller, and his three-point shooting has historically been a little better (though not this season). Also, San Antonio supposedly wasn't really shopping White; Boston just came calling. But I was honestly a little surprised by how much Boston gave up for White, at the time, though he's been very good (especially this year).

Edit: Interesting details about Anunoby's shooting in 271. White, it's worth noting, is a very good ballhandler and has (at least to my eye) a decent floater game, and is a solid passer. So his comparative lack of size does come with other advantages.

273. tshipman

Posted: February 02, 2023 at 01:21 PM (#6115500)

I think Anunoby is about as bad of an offensive player as a wing who scores 17 points a game on average efficiency can be.

This is exactly how I feel about him.

I'd probably still take Anunoby over Caruso because you have to worry that Caruso will just stop shooting 3s on you in a playoff series which can kill an offense. But Caruso is a better passer, defender, and all around player imo.

I guess I have questions about whether Anunoby will show up in a way that I don't worry about with Caruso. I know that Caruso is going to make a play, get on the hardwood and find a way to help his team win.

When I watch Anunoby, sometimes I see a guy who drifts.

274. DCA Posted: February 02, 2023 at 02:29 PM (#6115513)

Odds in 266:

I am definitely buying on the Kings and Suns at those odds. I think both are undervalued by about 50% (Kings are legit good - not great but good; a few months ago the Suns looked like the best team in the league and at full health with something for Crowder they might be there again). Cavs and Heat also strike me as value buys but not quite as much.

275. jmurph Posted: February 02, 2023 at 02:44 PM (#6115515)

Apparently I like Anunoby better than most of you guys do, yet I'm still similarly at a loss at the kinds of return Toronto seems to expect (I guess in fairness this is all just negotiating through the media so who knows what they really think). He's a really good 4th or 5th guy to have, and likely every team would be improved by adding him to their rotation. But you don't trade 3 first round picks (plus actual players) for a guy who is that limited on offense.

276. DCA Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:09 PM (#6115517)

I can't see any team giving 3 firsts for Anunoby, except maybe the Knicks (and then only if the Raps take Rose or Fournier to match salary).

277. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:16 PM (#6115518)

I think it's a supply and demand thing.

The year is obviously much more wide open than usual. And there likely are no true game changers on the market and not a lot of obviously great supporting players (is it clear that Caruso is on the market?).

So, it's really a seller's market (and last off-season was a seller's market too, so it's probably not just "wait it out"). I think that's more responsible for the OG price point than teams misjudging his value.

278. asinwreck Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:25 PM (#6115520)

The New York Liberty look poised to end the Basketball Mecca's half-century pro championship drought. In related news, the Sky are somehow having a worse week than the Bulls are.

279. tshipman

Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:26 PM (#6115521)

So, it's really a seller's market (and last off-season was a seller's market too, so it's probably not just "wait it out"). I think that's more responsible for the OG price point than teams misjudging his value.

I think the Gobert trade (and Murray to a lesser extent) is ####### up the market still.

Every seller is asking for the moon, and no one wants to be in the position that Atlanta and Minnesota have found themselves in.

280. DCA Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:28 PM (#6115523)

I was sort of comparing him in my mind with White, too, FTO. Anunoby is younger and taller, and his three-point shooting has historically been a little better (though not this season)

There's little doubt to me that White is a better shooter (look at FT% - although Anunoby has been improving). I'm guessing that most of the observed difference in 3P% is due to shot distribution, plus perhaps White just had a poor shooting year in 21-22. E.g. White's percentage of 2's and 3's that are assisted is much lower (career 43% and 85% vs 55% and 94%) and percentage of 3's from the corner (21% vs 44%).

281. Howie Menckel Posted: February 02, 2023 at 07:14 PM (#6115536)

The New York Liberty look poised to end the Basketball Mecca's half-century pro championship drought.

if by "mecca" you mean "Madison Square Garden" - well, they left there in 2017.

the Liberty play now at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

282. smileyy Posted: February 02, 2023 at 09:22 PM (#6115539)

Nothing like having Anthony Davis get a big defensive stop...then have Pat Beverly brick two free throws.

283. smileyy Posted: February 02, 2023 at 09:25 PM (#6115540)

In related news, the Sky are somehow having a worse week than the Bulls are.

The Storm have two players on their roster.

284. tshipman

Posted: February 02, 2023 at 10:04 PM (#6115542)

Outstanding 2/16 game from Westbrook.

***

Games like this one are why Denver is so hard for me to evaluate.

It's weird because Denver has a horrible matchup against a 5-out team like the Warriors, but a great matchup against a 5-out team like the Clippers.

If you told me Denver loses in the first round, I'd say ok, and if you told me they made the finals, I'd say ok. They're really hard to understand because Jokic is so unique, and predicting their good and bad matchups is really hard.

285. Russlan is not Russian Posted: February 02, 2023 at 10:16 PM (#6115544)

Every win the Lakers get is a big win considering where they are now in the standings but I think that would have been an especially bad loss after taking the lead. They never looked like winning that game and it would have been awful to lose the game after taking the lead. They missed a ton of free throws down the stretch.

I am glad the trade deadline is coming up soon. If they don't trade Westbrook, they are deciding that this year's just a lost cause and to try again next year. Might be the best thing to do in this case but I don't want to watch him play anymore. I hope it is at the deadline but at least it will be over at the end of the year. He's shooting even worse this year than last. He's also really bad defensively. Tyrese Haliburton just got wherever he wanted today agaist him and Schroeder especially.

286. Hombre Brotani

Posted: February 03, 2023 at 03:12 AM (#6115549)

If they don't trade Westbrook, they are deciding that this year's just a lost cause and to try again next year. Might be the best thing to do in this case but I don't want to watch him play anymore.

He's single-handed made Lakers games unwatchable -- that James might still drag the Lakers into the postseason might be Lebron's greatest achievement yet. What team has a contract they would want to swap for Westbrook?

287. aberg Posted: February 03, 2023 at 05:21 AM (#6115550)

And yeah, having a BIG WANG mattered more when you had to go through LeBron literally every year, and also likely had to go through another guy like Kawhi, etc. The landscape is different right now.

Are we still doing phrasing?

Suns looked like the best team in the league

The Suns +/- numbers in almost all of the lineups with Booker remain great. I think you could argue that they lose more without their best player than some teams because so many of their role players (Ayton, Bridges, Johnson) fill very specific roles that don't involve creating shots at volume. Of course, no team is going to win the title without their best player, so you're betting on Booker health either way. I expect them to surge back into top 6 as long as he gets healthy in time. Not sure I think they have the juice to get through multiple playoff rounds, though.

He's a really good 4th or 5th guy to have, and likely every team would be improved by adding him to their rotation.

Yeah, OG doesn't create offense, but that can be a feature than a bug on some rosters. Most contenders already have a star or two, so he's going to be asked to catch and shoot. Inability to shoot or pass off the dribble isn't a big defect on a team like Memphis or New Orleans (to pick two).

288. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 03, 2023 at 07:50 AM (#6115551)

I understand that this question is typically a subjective one, but Dillon Brooks is objectively the least likable player in the NBA, right?

289. jmurph Posted: February 03, 2023 at 08:17 AM (#6115553)

I understand that this question is typically a subjective one, but Dillon Brooks is objectively the least likable player in the NBA, right?

I don't think this is subjective at all, he's miles out ahead of 2nd place.

I think my biggest NBA hot take is that the charm of the Grizzlies has pretty much always been lost on me. Grit and grind was trash basketball. Ja is great and I love watching him dunk on everyone's heads but he's pretty overrated as stars go (to be clear, he's great! But like Lillard is still better, and I'm not sure that's a widely held opinion). I think I've cheered for them several times in the playoffs just in a rooting for the underdog kind of way, and I get the Memphis thing, but that's where it ends for me.

290. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 03, 2023 at 08:50 AM (#6115556)

I continue to enjoy this exercise so last time since teams were picked yesterday...All Stars if we had to pick All Stars based on EPM wins and could only choose first time All Stars:

East - Haliburton, Wagner, Claxton, Anunoboy, Kuzma, Turner, Bojan, Hield, Derrick White, S. Barnes, T. Harris, M. Robinson

West - SGA, Markkanen, Gordon, Edwards, Grant, JJJ, Fox, Bridges, Sengun, Adams, Simons, H. Barnes

291. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 03, 2023 at 08:53 AM (#6115557)

I think my biggest NBA hot take is that the charm of the Grizzlies has pretty much always been lost on me. Grit and grind was trash basketball. Ja is great and I love watching him dunk on everyone's heads but he's pretty overrated as stars go (to be clear, he's great! But like Lillard is still better, and I'm not sure that's a widely held opinion). I think I've cheered for them several times in the playoffs just in a rooting for the underdog kind of way, and I get the Memphis thing, but that's where it ends for me.

292. spivey Posted: February 03, 2023 at 08:57 AM (#6115558)

Of course, no team is going to win the title without their best player, so you're betting on Booker health either way.

People say that, but it's not always so cut and dried. Guys sometimes miss a few games here or there, or get in foul trouble. Their complete inability to do anything without him is a worry.

I have a similar worry for the Nuggets. I also do worry a good bit about their defense. 3 of their starters are mediocre at defense (Jokic you could say is average-above average, but he has significant flaws that are more likely to be targeted in the playoffs). It's borderline unprecedented for a team this bad at defense to win a championship. A couple of the best Dallas and 7SOL Phoenix teams that were championship level (but didn't win) were like 9-13.

Of course, the West is so open this year that there's likely to be a team that comes out of it that doesn't meet the traditional statistical mold, because basically none of the teams do. I'd argue the team that does the most, and I trust the most, is Memphis. But they are struggling right now and I sometimes worry about their ability to get out of their own way.

293. spivey Posted: February 03, 2023 at 09:01 AM (#6115559)

I'll go one further. Ja is clearly talented but watching him hurtle himself into a defender at breakneck speed to draw the inevitable whistle is not enjoyable basketball. My hot take is that if Ja didn't get the favorable calls, he wouldn't be a starter in the league.

That's way too far. He can get into the paint against pretty much anyone. I'd argue that's like the single most important skill as a PG. And he deserves plenty of calls he gets.

294. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 03, 2023 at 09:22 AM (#6115561)

That's way too far. He can get into the paint against pretty much anyone. I'd argue that's like the single most important skill as a PG. And he deserves plenty of calls he gets.

I'm just getting started. His walk the dog nonsense is an affront to sportsmanship and an abomination unto the Lord.

295. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 03, 2023 at 09:28 AM (#6115562)

People that contribute to the NBA Narrative seem to always, after the fact, come up with some sort of story about how it was SO OBVIOUS the team that won was going to win the whole time because of XYZ. Will be interesting to see if that sort of game plays out this year.

P.S. - I'd say it wasn't obvious that Golden State was going to win last year. I guess I don't think The Narrative has pegged that as inevitable, but maybe it has a little bit. I'm obviously judging something not black/white here.

296. spivey Posted: February 03, 2023 at 09:44 AM (#6115563)

P.S. - I'd say it wasn't obvious that Golden State was going to win last year. I guess I don't think The Narrative has pegged that as inevitable, but maybe it has a little bit. I'm obviously judging something not black/white here.

I agree with you. I think if Golden State goes on to have a forgettable year like they're on pace for, I think that year will seem very anomalous when we look back on it in several years. Their advanced stats were pretty good, so it's not that they weren't deserving winners, but I think we'll wonder how the hell that team had such good stats to begin with.

297. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 03, 2023 at 09:47 AM (#6115564)

I don't think this is subjective at all, he's miles out ahead of 2nd place.

Draymond "I knocked out my teammate" Green wondering what the hell else he needs to do...

298. PJ Martinez Posted: February 03, 2023 at 10:34 AM (#6115570)

Re: 295 and 296, I think this stretch of years will be thought of (as it's already largely thought of) as a transitional time, after the primes of LeBron and Curry, when no new dominant team had yet emerged. There's a decent chance that we're going to have five different champions in five seasons, which I think hasn't happened since the late '70s, when the title teams were Warriors, Celtics, Blazers, Bullets, Sonics. A sixth team won the next year — the Lakers, kicking off the Lakers-Celtics '80s. But who remembers those late '70s champions, outside of David Halberstam fans and aged residents of the Pacific Northwest? Not that many people, probably. (I didn't even realize, or maybe had forgotten, that the Bullets ever won a title.)

299. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: February 03, 2023 at 11:01 AM (#6115575)

Agree with transitional era. The fascinating thing for me is that it seems like there have been so many teams that felt in some way on the cusp of potentially establishing dominance due to having a young transcendent star with support.

The Bucks are a good example here. They went 60-22 in 2018-19 with an SRS of +8 and a 24 year old star. Would anyone have batted an eye if they'd rolled through that postseason and, say, won two more chips in the next 3 years? Yet, that's not what happened at all (although of course they did get the one). If they had worked out, you could have made similar "in retrospect inevitable" things about, say, Doncic + Porzingis, Embiid + Simmons + Butler, Jokic + Murray, the Celtics core, etc.. Yet nothing has quite clicked yet.

Of course it still could at any time.

300. tshipman

Posted: February 03, 2023 at 11:17 AM (#6115578)

Well, the obvious idea is that we're waiting around for Luka to ascend. It's an open question of whether the Mavs will figure out the team composition that makes that kind of statement make sense.

I think the injury and other issue failure of the Anthony Davis/Kawhi/Giannis generation to take over the NBA has allowed the older generations (KD, Curry and LeBron) to continue to dominate the NBA in a historically anomalous way.

We'll see if the younger generation is able to ascend to apex predator status.

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