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Monday, January 09, 2023
I estimate that this new thread should have been posted 10-12 days ago, at least.
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The Celtics aren't great at the moment, they look like they have no energy for long stretches, luckily just 4+ more months of the season/playoffs so it should be fine.
As in: not one of those *franchises* has ever been to the Finals, which seems kind of wild.
1 game between the 4 and 9 seeds out West. 3 games between 5 and 13. Crazy.
I can't find it now but I saw a tweet yesterday that the current SRS leader, the Celtics at 5.13, would be the lowest in a while (not sure exactly how long- I clicked back and gave up at the 2011-12 season).
This isn't for SRS but think a pretty cool visual showing how bunched it is here: https://twitter.com/tvbassine/status/1619727931584155648
Sam Hinkie Memorial Dot at the bottom.
EDIT - And replies discuss how Stars Missing Time could affect this. I hadn't really thought of that. It probably could affect the upper net rating being lower but do think it's a new era of close-ness at the top.
+400 Celtics - Tatum/Brown +4.7, 2,359 possessions
+750 Bucks - Giannis/Holiday +10.1, 1,537 possessions
+750 Nuggets - Jokic/Murray, +13.1, 1,987 possessions
+800 Nets - Durant/Irving, +6.0, 1,615 possessions
+900 Warriors - Curry/Green, +7.4, 1,923 possessions
+1100 Grizzlies - Ja/JJJ, +16.9, 1,090 possessions
+1100 Sixers - Embiid/Harden, +9.1, 1507 possessions
+1200 Clippers - Kawhi/George, +10.8, 994 possessions
+2000 Lakers - James/Davis, +0.8, 1,113 possessions
+2000 Pelicans - Zion/Ingram, +17.3, 497 possessions
+2000 Suns - Booker/Paul, +7.8, 706 possessions
Don't know what I was looking for but felt like looking this up to avoid doing work. Surprised that Lakers duo is so low but probably shouldn't be. (edit - honestly started doing this to look up Sixers then initially forgot to include the Sixers)
Obviously not apples-to-apples comparisons here with such differing numbers of possessions.
thanasis is definitely the latter, i don't think he's the former.
my question to the group is -- does the distinction matter? which is worse? and so on...
i still don't think he's dirtier than jokic.
long answer: yes, with a "though..."
short answer: no, with a "but..."
Can he be traded? Is it disallowed for X days since he extended and thus impossible before the deadline, or it is just unlikely because Indy is going to want to keep him?
There have certainly been times where I have caught a penalty/foul on film and I've wanted to show coaches, refs, the world, etc. what really happened, but you have to be professional and keep it to yourself. Refs make mistakes, and it's not your place.
From what I understand, Beverly asked if anyone had captured the foul on film and one of the photographers showed him a photo of the contact on LeBron (a big no-no, imo). Beverly then hijacked the camera of the none-too-pleased photographer to show the ref. Wouldn't be surprised if the photographer caught some serious heat for that one, which makes me even less of a fan of Beverly if that's possible.
30 years ago, this could happen with traveling NBA beat reporters as well - because they sat courtside.
basically, you're a lamp post (or if you prefer, a basket stanchion) in that situation. they can ask you all the questions they want, and no response. period.
there once was a season-ending game where a player was asking us - while he's at midcourt in the middle of a play (admittedly in a meaningless game, for playoff seeding purposes) - what he needed to do to clinch a certain stat category.
nobody even flinched.
no doubt a lot has changed over time (and writers have been sitting in the rafters for decades now), but I'd be surprised if that standard is one of those changes.
Mostly I am happy that Ant is taking the leap we hoped he would take. His overall level of play has really jumped up, especially his consistency. Having Ant play on the ball has worked out better than I hoped it would. He still has (much) work to do on defense, but overall he is continuing on the path people hoped for when he was drafted.
Did Luke Walton coach the year that Kerr missed the first half with a back injury and the Warriors went 39-4 in his absense? I honestly have never paid attention to who coaches the ASG.
He is looking much better, to me, than I expected. Like the game is slowing down for him in a real way. And his shot looks very good.
It was 2015-16 that Walton served as acting head coach. Kerr returned prior to the All-Star break and was ineligible to coach the West because he'd done so the previous season.
It'll hurt, but go ahead and trade Caruso too. Probably can get more for him than anyone else anyway.
Let's see how many rebounds Drummond can get playing 36 minutes on that team, just for shits. Make Patrick williams put up or shut up being a #2 option (he will definitely shut up).
3 first round picks, who's in?
It sure seems like the Bulls are waiting out Lonzo Ball's knee. I'd rather see Beckett plays at the Goodman than the United Center.
Joe Cowley
Total piece of #### ####### columnist. I still don't know if he actually has sources with the Bulls or not. I believe this comment though.
I understand it didn't start that way but once Caruso gets on Powell I think the Clippers have to adjust there so they're not intentionally getting Chicago's best defender switched onto Kawhi? That was dumb basketball.
The thing that has impressed me the most is that his playmaking has come along so quickly. I thought that there would be more growing pains when he started playing on ball more often- a stretch of higher turnovers without much improved playmaking and slowly developing from there. The growing pains lasted for like 2 week after KAT got hurt and then he took a huge step forward on his playmaking.
Wolves were 4th in the league defensive rating in January. When the rotation is Russell-Edwards-McDaniels-SloMo-Rudy-Rivers-Prince-Naz, Russell is the only bad defender in the group. Edwards is still learning to be a useful defender off ball but has some really good moments on-ball. Reid is a bit of a tweener but works hard and defends pretty well as long as the opponent doesn't have someone way bigger and stronger than him.
Team is 11-5 in last 16, counting the OT loss to SAC last time out. That's a good run. Feels like they're getting a better idea of how to defend with Rudy as the backline, and DLo has shot well lately, which helps even out everything he gives back by dying on every screen. The way the west is going, it feels like there's probably enough there to get out of the play-in, but that's not a good result for the season. Bigger issue is that KAT remains out, nobody knows when he can come back, and the whole team has to re-learn how to play when he finally does get back.
Or, what if...
I'm sure they won't do it, but I would be interested in seeing what the market is for Towns.
They cannot trade Towns until the offseason. Like against the rules cannot.
The best case (IMO) is that Towns comes back from injury, and as he ramps up he can slot in behind Edwards as the lead dog. Then it becomes clear that, yes, even once Towns is back and up to speed, Edwards is the lead dog. They can certainly use many of the skills Towns has as a great shooter and his offensive skills in general. Before on offense Towns clearly worked hard to fit in with Gobert.
It is, as usual, defense that is the question with Towns. Which is one reason I want to get rid of DLo. You can survive one meh player on defense way better than two. It is not linear to my eye.
Wait can he even be traded next season? The extension doesn't kick in until 24-25.
EDIT: Think I found the answer. One full year from the date the extension is signed, it seems, which was July 7, 2022.
I fell into a Kevin Willis rabbit hole on BKREF, and found this amazing game: Atlanta 127, Portland 118. Hawks had three double-digit scorers, Dominique Wilkins: 48
Kevin Willis: 32 + 25 rebounds
Stacey Augmon: 19
Blazers had three guys in double figures:
Porter 23
Drexler 23
Cliff Robinson 39
Augmon had a weird career, he spent five years with the Hawks as a starter from day one and averaged 14 points with okay defense, then spent 11 more seasons as a nomad scrub, only averaging 20 MPG twice more.
Had high hopes for him coming out of UNLV, but (much like De'Andre Hunter) didn't really live up to his hype as a great defensive player. He was..OK.
I too have fallen down the Kevin Willis rabbit hole before. The craziest thing to me is he played 20+ seasons, is 9th in career total games - and has a career VORP of -1.0.
In modern news, hey, LeBron is less than 100 points away from passing Kareem.
I need to hear much more about this evening.
EDIT: Celtics have a 30-point lead at the end of the 1st quarter.
And yet not the shortest arms on the Hawks in the early 90s!
We had pretty good seats, and out of the blue, Augmon (by himself) walked up and sat behind us, presumably after his post-game shower. You could tell he didn't know what to make of the Village People. Heck, who does know what to make of the Village People? In their defense, they were pretty entertaining and put on a fun - though kinda surreal - show.
My girlfriend-at-the-time was annoyed because Stacey kneed her a few times. As noted, he looked uncomfortable with both the music and the small seats and left after a few songs.
I can find nothing about this concert online.
In a bizarrely similar story, someone on reddit said that they saw Naz Reid going to see Women Talking on the Wolves' off day this week.
that tari eason sequence last night was glorious.
i thought augmon was gonna be a special defender too (to be fair, he was above average as a pro, just not more than that). ah well.
those unlv teams were awfully fun.
I think it's just supposed to be that he was old. He was the last guy left from the ABA, so a dinosaur.
sleepy brain over here
Pinnacle Title Odds
+365 Celtics
+683 Nuggets
+773 Bucks
+777 Nets
+946 Warriors
+1003 Grizzlies
+1253 Clippers
+1379 Sixers
+1856 Suns
+2008 Cavs
+2207 Pelicans
+3110 Mavericks
+4007 Heat
+4014 Lakers
+5156 Kings
***
Good player, but a role player. Weird to me that there's talk he might fetch 3 firsts. I think he's not as good as Caruso in the role player class, but I gather that POV is not widely held.
I think Anunoby is a guy who checks boxes. He's a good shooter, he's a good defender, he can move the ball. I think the sum of the parts is a bit less.
My immediate thought was that Anunoby is like a wing version of Derrick White, and could be similarly useful to a contender that picks him up. A player with no real weaknesses but also no singular strengths. A wing that works with a lot of lineups and would provide some defense and versatility without taking much off the table. (Almost identical contracts, too.) White cost a salary, a young player with injury issues but some (limited) upside and an almost-unprotected pick swap. That was a deal, I think, but three firsts is a much steeper price even accounting for the defensive value of a wing compared to a guard in today's NBA.
I'd push back on the good shooting. Though his 3pt% is technically above average, 44% of his 3s come from the corner, and 97% of his 3s are assisted. If you look at his shooting numbers from 3-10, 10-16, and 16-3P he's like a 33% shooter. He's nothing but a 2 level scorer who can't create against any meaningful defense. He's not a good passer, he has a A:TO ratio below 1 this year.
And yeah, having a BIG WANG mattered more when you had to go through LeBron literally every year, and also likely had to go through another guy like Kawhi, etc. The landscape is different right now.
I'd probably still take Anunoby over Caruso because you have to worry that Caruso will just stop shooting 3s on you in a playoff series which can kill an offense. But Caruso is a better passer, defender, and all around player imo.
Edit: Interesting details about Anunoby's shooting in 271. White, it's worth noting, is a very good ballhandler and has (at least to my eye) a decent floater game, and is a solid passer. So his comparative lack of size does come with other advantages.
This is exactly how I feel about him.
I guess I have questions about whether Anunoby will show up in a way that I don't worry about with Caruso. I know that Caruso is going to make a play, get on the hardwood and find a way to help his team win.
When I watch Anunoby, sometimes I see a guy who drifts.
I am definitely buying on the Kings and Suns at those odds. I think both are undervalued by about 50% (Kings are legit good - not great but good; a few months ago the Suns looked like the best team in the league and at full health with something for Crowder they might be there again). Cavs and Heat also strike me as value buys but not quite as much.
The year is obviously much more wide open than usual. And there likely are no true game changers on the market and not a lot of obviously great supporting players (is it clear that Caruso is on the market?).
So, it's really a seller's market (and last off-season was a seller's market too, so it's probably not just "wait it out"). I think that's more responsible for the OG price point than teams misjudging his value.
I think the Gobert trade (and Murray to a lesser extent) is ####### up the market still.
Every seller is asking for the moon, and no one wants to be in the position that Atlanta and Minnesota have found themselves in.
There's little doubt to me that White is a better shooter (look at FT% - although Anunoby has been improving). I'm guessing that most of the observed difference in 3P% is due to shot distribution, plus perhaps White just had a poor shooting year in 21-22. E.g. White's percentage of 2's and 3's that are assisted is much lower (career 43% and 85% vs 55% and 94%) and percentage of 3's from the corner (21% vs 44%).
if by "mecca" you mean "Madison Square Garden" - well, they left there in 2017.
the Liberty play now at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The Storm have two players on their roster.
***
Games like this one are why Denver is so hard for me to evaluate.
It's weird because Denver has a horrible matchup against a 5-out team like the Warriors, but a great matchup against a 5-out team like the Clippers.
If you told me Denver loses in the first round, I'd say ok, and if you told me they made the finals, I'd say ok. They're really hard to understand because Jokic is so unique, and predicting their good and bad matchups is really hard.
I am glad the trade deadline is coming up soon. If they don't trade Westbrook, they are deciding that this year's just a lost cause and to try again next year. Might be the best thing to do in this case but I don't want to watch him play anymore. I hope it is at the deadline but at least it will be over at the end of the year. He's shooting even worse this year than last. He's also really bad defensively. Tyrese Haliburton just got wherever he wanted today agaist him and Schroeder especially.
Are we still doing phrasing?
The Suns +/- numbers in almost all of the lineups with Booker remain great. I think you could argue that they lose more without their best player than some teams because so many of their role players (Ayton, Bridges, Johnson) fill very specific roles that don't involve creating shots at volume. Of course, no team is going to win the title without their best player, so you're betting on Booker health either way. I expect them to surge back into top 6 as long as he gets healthy in time. Not sure I think they have the juice to get through multiple playoff rounds, though.
Yeah, OG doesn't create offense, but that can be a feature than a bug on some rosters. Most contenders already have a star or two, so he's going to be asked to catch and shoot. Inability to shoot or pass off the dribble isn't a big defect on a team like Memphis or New Orleans (to pick two).
I don't think this is subjective at all, he's miles out ahead of 2nd place.
I think my biggest NBA hot take is that the charm of the Grizzlies has pretty much always been lost on me. Grit and grind was trash basketball. Ja is great and I love watching him dunk on everyone's heads but he's pretty overrated as stars go (to be clear, he's great! But like Lillard is still better, and I'm not sure that's a widely held opinion). I think I've cheered for them several times in the playoffs just in a rooting for the underdog kind of way, and I get the Memphis thing, but that's where it ends for me.
East - Haliburton, Wagner, Claxton, Anunoboy, Kuzma, Turner, Bojan, Hield, Derrick White, S. Barnes, T. Harris, M. Robinson
West - SGA, Markkanen, Gordon, Edwards, Grant, JJJ, Fox, Bridges, Sengun, Adams, Simons, H. Barnes
I'll go one further. Ja is clearly talented but watching him hurtle himself into a defender at breakneck speed to draw the inevitable whistle is not enjoyable basketball. My hot take is that if Ja didn't get the favorable calls, he wouldn't be a starter in the league.
People say that, but it's not always so cut and dried. Guys sometimes miss a few games here or there, or get in foul trouble. Their complete inability to do anything without him is a worry.
I have a similar worry for the Nuggets. I also do worry a good bit about their defense. 3 of their starters are mediocre at defense (Jokic you could say is average-above average, but he has significant flaws that are more likely to be targeted in the playoffs). It's borderline unprecedented for a team this bad at defense to win a championship. A couple of the best Dallas and 7SOL Phoenix teams that were championship level (but didn't win) were like 9-13.
Of course, the West is so open this year that there's likely to be a team that comes out of it that doesn't meet the traditional statistical mold, because basically none of the teams do. I'd argue the team that does the most, and I trust the most, is Memphis. But they are struggling right now and I sometimes worry about their ability to get out of their own way.
That's way too far. He can get into the paint against pretty much anyone. I'd argue that's like the single most important skill as a PG. And he deserves plenty of calls he gets.
I'm just getting started. His walk the dog nonsense is an affront to sportsmanship and an abomination unto the Lord.
P.S. - I'd say it wasn't obvious that Golden State was going to win last year. I guess I don't think The Narrative has pegged that as inevitable, but maybe it has a little bit. I'm obviously judging something not black/white here.
I agree with you. I think if Golden State goes on to have a forgettable year like they're on pace for, I think that year will seem very anomalous when we look back on it in several years. Their advanced stats were pretty good, so it's not that they weren't deserving winners, but I think we'll wonder how the hell that team had such good stats to begin with.
Draymond "I knocked out my teammate" Green wondering what the hell else he needs to do...
The Bucks are a good example here. They went 60-22 in 2018-19 with an SRS of +8 and a 24 year old star. Would anyone have batted an eye if they'd rolled through that postseason and, say, won two more chips in the next 3 years? Yet, that's not what happened at all (although of course they did get the one). If they had worked out, you could have made similar "in retrospect inevitable" things about, say, Doncic + Porzingis, Embiid + Simmons + Butler, Jokic + Murray, the Celtics core, etc.. Yet nothing has quite clicked yet.
Of course it still could at any time.
I think the injury and other issue failure of the Anthony Davis/Kawhi/Giannis generation to take over the NBA has allowed the older generations (KD, Curry and LeBron) to continue to dominate the NBA in a historically anomalous way.
We'll see if the younger generation is able to ascend to apex predator status.
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