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Monday, January 09, 2023
I estimate that this new thread should have been posted 10-12 days ago, at least.
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Golden State was 10-1 at the start of the playoffs but ended up favored in each round.
I've been a lifelong Trae skeptic. That conference finals appearance always looked like a fluke, and seems to have really screwed up the franchise's path, as fools' gold.
You always fire the coach before you trade the star.
I would guess you bring in D'Antoni?
Well they did that once already but you're probably right.
The rumblings down here have all been about Trae: he's a coach killer, a poor leader, a bad teammate. But the fact is, despite being able to get any shot he wants (and he does, he's #2 in the league in shot attempts), he's below-average efficiency and an absolute liability on defense. Those might just be two fatal flaws for this team.
Side note, I would have really liked for them to keep Huerter rather than Bogdanovich. Huerter is just as good, cheaper (although salaries are much closer now), and matches Atlanta's timeline better. And they need to move on from Collins, he's played the good soldier, but I think he's partially checked out after 2 years of trade rumors.
Not going into the luxury tax (a common theme with mid-market teams) has really hurt the bench. Having to trade Huerter, losing Wright/Gallinari and replacing them with Holidays...ugh. Bogi also hasn't been great since the knee issues, turning from passable on defense into a sieve. AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson have shown promise, but McMillan doesn't like relying on youngsters. So when Trae is out, the team suffers.
That said, the offense has been cooking lately (2nd in the NBA over the past 10 games). Murray is playing better and better as he and Trae learn to work off each other.
It's been a disappointing season, but like the TWolves, I think it's too early to give up on the Hawks just yet.
WTF?
Edit: Maybe the more appropriate acronym here is LOL
Edit: KD and Russ reunited?
Hey, the Wolves have won a fair number of games this year (among the leaders for 2023). Now they just have to keep it up, get KAT healthy, and ... PROFIT!
UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES
Jeez... Kyrie is kinda the Kanye of the NBA, isn't he.
There's no arguably.
Dealing Huerter versus Bogdan was a pretty big self-own, given that health is a skill. (I've always liked Huerter but Bogdan is better when healthy.) That said, Huerter was never going to be this good for the Hawks, given that they never put him in a position where he was allowed to do more of the things that he can do competently to well on the court.
Collins - I wonder what percentage is checked out versus the team not trusting him/utilizing him properly (bit of both, I'd guess). Ugh, what a waste.
---
Kyrie is ... he's something!
Ehhh ... I think Diet Klay is the easiest kind of player to use. Again, this is why you just fire the coach.
I think the Hawks' error was thinking of shooting as a category you can simply have "enough" of, as opposed to something you can keep adding.
Who says no?
ESPN Trade Machine links no longer work for me (takes me to the tool, not the deal). So, I don't know.
I also don't know who would want to trade for Kyrie. I don't think the Nets care if he says he's not coming back. They can either call his bluff or let him walk. He does have a lot of on-court value for the rest of this year, and a lot of negative PR value. So a team that trades for him is one that needs to make a big upgrade, and the cost of not doing so is more than the risk of getting chaos from Kyrie.
Hawks? Collins + Justin Holiday works
Heat? Lowry + a minimum salary
Kyrie saying, "don't forget about me".
I've liked Memphis for a while: they always have lunchpail guys like Gasol and Conley and Steven Adams. Ja is incredible. Desmond Bane is a very skilled and handsome man. Great uniforms. But Brooks has the potential to self-destruct this team, through antics like this, and he takes way too many (bad) shots on the court.
Dallas is more in line with his mindset.
I don't think the Heat are dumb enough to mess with him. Could see the Mavs? Not sure about the Clippers, I don't have any sense of if they're feeling desperate (I think they should be feeling desperate given how poorly this has all worked out, but there's desperate and then there's trade for Kyrie desperate).
My guess is we get no trade and he sits the rest of the season, I just don't see the Nets being able to get much value (why would the Lakers offer anything other than Westbrook's contract to get a guy who is about to be a free agent and is, to put it mildly, extremely unreliable).
All that aside, LeBron/Kyrie/a healthy Davis would be a very, very good offensive trio.
* The Suns would have to add Saric or someone to make the salaries work.
I'd rather just sit Kyrie the rest of the year and lose him than have to take CP3 at $60M over the next 2 seasons.
As for Huerter, the Hawks needed to get under the tax somehow according to owner Ressler's wishes. Interest in Bogi was minimal coming off the knee surgery, and Huerter got a 1st rounder back, so they made the deal. I get it. But the Hawks have certainly missed his outside shooting. On the flip side, it was difficult to play Huerter and Trae at the same time because of their lack of defense.
Trae's defense has actually been better this year (28th percentile EPM, -1.5 RAPTOR). I mean, it's still pretty bad, but he is trying harder on that end. His physical limitations make it difficult. I kinda wonder if his improved effort on defense has hurt his offense a bit because he's expending more energy. But like Murray, Trae has shot better of late after a terrible start to the season.
As of right now, the Hawks are in perfect balance: a 26-26 record, scoring 6,057 points and allowing 6,057 points. We'll see what happens going forward.
$30m isn't what it used to be — if this list can be trusted, Paul is currently the 42nd-highest paid player in the NBA, with small raises coming in the next two seasons.
Chris Paul has had a great career, but he is toast.
To BRK: Vucevic, Caruso
To CHI: Westbrook, Walker, 2 LAL first, 1 BRK first
It also works with Vooch to LAL and DeMar to BRK
Wretched night for the BBTF NBA Thread & we had a fight. After several fake trades, Der-K came charging down hallway at Moses. Der-k got to the sign-on screen & multiple failed password attempts prevented Moses from replying. The foul-mouthed insults hurled were loud & impressive.
***
That trade in 342 is somehow bad for all teams.
Yes and no.
If his cap hold expires, the Lakers would be a cap space team, but only with approx 30mm of space, not 48.
So some of it expires, but not all of it.
The matching salary has to be two to three of:
Powell: 16.7 for 4 years
Reggie Jackson: 11.2 for this year only
John Wall: 6.4 for 2 years
Marcus Morris: 16.3 for 2 years
Luke Kennard: 14.4 for 3 years
IMO, basically all of those guys fail the Nene test, of whether they would receive that much on the open market. John Wall is dead money, and the other guys are all overpaid to one degree or another.
They already owe picks to OKC through 2026, and swaps in 25. So they can offer one unprotected first, in 2028.
That is not that great of an offer, unless you think that Powell, Kennard or Morris have value.
we're getting the band back together.
1) the strange 1975-1980 time in pro basketball history after Kareem gets traded to LA and before Magic joins him there, during which ABA talent is folded into the NBA by either complete franchise or via dispersal draft; and
2) ####-talking the ####-talking Grizzlies now that they've lost seven of eight (following an 11-game win streak, by the way, so perfect timing).
I came of age as a pro hoops fan in Denver in the early 70s -- my family had season tickets to the Rockets and kept them when the name changed to Nuggets -- then moved to Portland in the summer of 1978, just as the Rip City dynasty tripped over a stack of x-ray charts. So, with the "wisdom" of several decades past, it's safe to say that the era of #1 should be characterized as dual failures to surround Kareem and then Dr J with sufficient championship talent, being as they were the very best by far of that time period. There are lots of reasons for this, and let's do discuss them. The outcomes were that there was uncommon diversity among league champions. Yes, Boston squeezed two more titles out of its Havlicek/Cowens/White core, just barely, and Washington finally put together a decent squad around Unseld and Hayes. The mad genius that was Dr Jack Ramsay is another quack in the box if Portland doesn't get Maurice Lucas, and the Supes well I think history has been hard enough upon them. Let's just say that peak Gus Williams would have been very playable in the Association's current era. Also, if you don't love Lenny Wilkens and Downtown Freddie Brown, you're a soul-less monster. Could the Supes or the Bullets or the end-of-the-line Celtics been this successful in any other decade?
As for Memphis, we all like what we like. Grizzlies fans like a winning team, like most fans, but unlike any NBA town, Memphis is the pro-wrestling-est of fanbases. Grit & Grind was ugly as hell to watch but my goodness, it resonated in that city and still does; I type this as a long-time resident. Dillon Brooks is obviously the illegitimate love-child of Tony Allen (with way too much shooting latitude) and Ric Flair, and what he did to Mitchell the other night is absolutely not OK. This version of the Grizz plays defense by deflection like a weird lab experiment, and it seems to be working? With side-effects, yes, but largely it is working. I don't know if it's sustainable. I agree Morant is exciting and bouncier than any player I can recall, and I agree he's one body blow away from being less of both.
Genuine super-teams are fascinating and, when everything is clicking, are really amazing to see. I prefer a league where more teams have actual championship aspirations, though, and so I miss the second half of the 70s. A lot. It is historically astonishing to witness LeBron's and Curry's potency last this long. I would have figured Giannis would have O'Brien Trophies for cufflinks by now, and more besides, but here we are. Rosters are volatile, many superstars are shall we say mercurial in their affections, and yet the roads to NBA titles still go through LeBron and Curry. In a league with this many teams and this much player movement, that should be impossible... right?
Why on Earth would MN do that? They are trying to win this year and still have the hope of KAT returning and adding to their pretty good success since the calendar flipped over to 2023.
If they know they're going to lose Russell for nothing? I don't know. I'm just spitballing here!
I do think that if they can get DLo to resign for like 25MM/yr for a few years, he's a pretty good backcourt partner for Ant, if Ant continues to play heavily on the ball. Not perfect (you'd like some man defence), but better than they're likely to get any other way.
The Nets preferences are sort of irrational.
You cannot trade Kyrie and become a contender. Kyrie's value on the court (when he feels like playing) exceeds his value in trade by a fairly large margin. So whatever you get will make your team worse. If the Nets were ever a contender this season, it was only barely. It's not like the Nets have a ton of excess greatness.
So if you trade Kyrie, you should be open to tearing down completely, including trading Durant. If you do that, your trade packages should be focused on future value and getting out of the tax. The Dallas package or the Lakers package have all the value focused on the draft. The Lakers package helps you clean up your books by including Harris.
So it's really unclear what the Nets will do. They appear to actually be done with Kyrie enough to trade him, but they seem to be deluded enough to think that they can stay contenders. At some point, either before the trade deadline or this offseason, or even later, someone on the Nets will realize that it's over and they need to move on.
I don't know that there is a good balance, but if they do semi-punt this year by trading DLO and/or Reid the bare minimum they need is pieces that fit the team better, even if they net lose value in the trade. At a minimum, they need someone who can do some playmaking and some perimeter defense to pair with Ant.
Looking foreword to the Doncic trade watch in about 12 months!
Edit: Per Woj, "The Lakers and Nets had several conversations on a potential deal, but Nets preferred Mavs' package -- getting back a point guard and wing to plug in now plus the future picks."
At first blush I agree this seems decent business for Brooklyn to get off of Kyrie for some current roster talent Vaughn can use and a pick that could be good if Dallas implodes.
This is better than the Lakers deal, I think, and gives them a slightly better chance on trying to convince KD not to demand a trade again. But I bet KD demands a trade after the season again.
The Lakers should trade Westbrook for Durant.
I have to admit it is nice to see another team screw up.
I might just not be understanding it though. Lack of imagination or something.
Whoa whoa whoa we're just leaving Cuban out of this?
I think so far in Luka's career, he's had the most synergy with Brunson and Dinwiddie. Kyrie is sort of a better version of those guys (on offense, significantly worse on defense). It kind of makes sense on the court to me.
Is it? I mean, it's better players. That's not really what the Nets should care about tho.
I don't mind it so much on the court. Against high level defense you need more than 1 guy who can dribble and Dinwiddie isn't good enough to count for this. But Kyrie can't help himself. I don't know that I think he's a bad person, but he just can't help himself. He's not a stable human being.
Nets would do well to tear it down, but won't. But I'd be inclined to deal everyone but Simmons that you can get positive value for. Then try to rehab Simmons' value and deal him next year. I don't blame them for doing this. Every franchise would have given the keys to Kyrie and Durant. Harden deal I think I was a bit critical of, but they were clearly the best team in the NBA that year. It just didn't work, and it's time to rebuild.
I don't care for the frat bro culture, but Cuban is still among the better NBA owners. There are so, so many shitty owners.
Problem with this is that you really can't be a star level player if you're not good at having the ball in your hands. So there is inevitably going to be overlap on top teams.
I’m not sure this even moves the needle for me thinking about Dallas in the playoffs? Do they employ a wing defender?
Reggie Bullock's pretty good. I don't watch enough to know if Josh Green is good defensively, but he seems like he probably is ready for a bigger role, which this consolidation does.
So, as usual I am kind of a defender of on-court Irving. Off-court Irving--different story and obviously those issues would affect extending him, and beyond that, he misses time in general. But I am not as down on this for Dallas as some here appear to be.
I do not think that Pelinka will do anything major before the deadline. Nunn/Hachimura was a reasonable move to balance the roster. The vibe/rumors have been that Pelinka wants to try to bring in Lillard, Beal, or LaVine during the off-season once Westbrook is off the books and that he has been trying to sell James and Davis on that. Of course, with Irving back in the West, James will have plenty to say the next few days, I am sure.
ehhhhh...
when he first bought the mavs, he installed lazyboy recliners and LED televisions in the locker room. how can anyone hate on that?
then, he made buying the cubs his white whale, only to get blackballed by bud selig because that cryptkeeping used car salesman didn't want that kind of free spending owner in his ownership ranks. again, how could anyone hate on that?
it wasn't just 'teh feels' that made people like cuban. he was a fan who wore his heart on his sleeve, and he was doing what any other fan would have wanted to do if they had backslid into billions of dollars.
but then, to paraphrase jefferson: anyone who isn't liberal at 20 lacks heart; anyone who isn't conservative at 40 lacks a viagra prescription.
It absolutely is what should they care about. They have KD now. They should be doing everything they can to keep him and win, in that order. It's insane to me to suggest a team with KD should want to stockpile picks 5+ years away. I've always pushed back on the championship or bust extreme viewpoint, and this is just way too far.
Now, it's very possible that KD was already going to want out. And if the Nets knew that, then maybe that changes their calculus a bit. Even then, I still say this deal is better than the Lakers one - and not just I don't believe that the Lakers will consistently be bad enough to make those lottery tickets that valuable - I would still rather have Dinwiddie/DFS on their deals that Russ on his.
KD is 34 years old, and has averaged playing 61% of his team's games over the last three years. That's not even counting the year he completely missed.
He averages 50 games a year. You simply cannot build a contender around the idea that Kevin Durant is the sole star. This fantasy that you'll somehow make a run with just KD from the bottom half of the bracket is just that: a fantasy.
This is the other part of it. Durant already asked for a trade. Why would he want to stay? To play with Spencer Dinwiddie and Ben Simmons?
And then they have no draft capital to make moves. They don't have cap space. I guess pitch me a trade that gets them another star that can get them back to contender status. Maybe you can squint and say a deal of a few of their good role players for Ayton and Paul could have them dangerous this year. But I don't think so. Not to beat 2 of Philly, Milwaukee, Boston. Hell, they may have to beat all 3 of those teams.
Brooklyn is one team I could see try to get Nikola Vučević, though I don't get the sense the Bulls are trading him.
As a non-basketball fan, can someone explain why a 2029 1st is considered an important trade piece? I've always read that in the NFL, every year in the future makes the draft choice lose a round. For example, a 1st next year is considered equivalent value to a 2nd this year. So how can a draft pick in 6 years be worth much?
Others can maybe explain this better, but the value of picks in the NBA is very heavily weighted towards the top 1-4 picks, with each pick after 1 or 2 having a big drop in expected quality. So you want them further out, because it increases the variance and the likelihood you get that really high pick, since fortunes can change quickly.
In the NFL, it feels like you can get good productive players who can often help contribute pretty quickly with the first like 100 picks. The NBA is also much more of a star-driven game - having the best player on the court goes a much longer way to make you favored to win the game in the NBA vs. NFL. So if you're trading for first round picks, you want to maximize that.
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