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Monday, January 09, 2023
2023 NBA Regular Season Thread
I estimate that this new thread should have been posted 10-12 days ago, at least.
Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: January 09, 2023 at 11:55 AM | 1744 comment(s)
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Tags: basketball, future first round picks, nba, off-topic
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I understand it's an unlikely universe, but in a world with no LeBron and a healthy AD, Davis/DLo complement each other very well, no?
How bad is this deal for Minnesota?
They took on Conley for another year when he is pretty washed and got zero draft compensation.
Conley's deal is only partially guaranteed for next year, and anyway rolling over Russell's contact slot to next year makes sense to me and shouldn't really hurt them this year. Plus Utah 2nds should be decent picks for a couple years? I haven't seen the details on those.
LA turns someone who just isn't working for them into 3 useful players while preserving salary space in the summer.
Utah turned 3 guys they don't care about into another 1st.
#71 Conley
#84 Russell
#151 Westbrook
#176 Vanderbilt
#328 Beasley
DARKO Ranks
#94 Conley
#137 Russell
#156 Vanderbilt
#159 Westbrook
#376 Beasley
No, I mean, I get it, embrace the tank....but have you looked at the Western conference standings? Denver, Memphis, and 8 potential #3 seeds. If that's all you can get, why not go for it?
EDIT: For Reddish and a future 1st.
***
Return for Utah:
I think you value getting rid of Conley as well.
I think the return is a bit light? But maybe they felt like there was a viable second deal if they didn't jump. I am surprised that they seemed to not value Beasley very much.
Maybe it's my old love of Conley coming through, and I know this is "intangibles", but let's just say, I trust Conley to complement / mentor Ant a hell of a lot more than I trust D'Angelo Russell. Minnesota is making an extended bet on Ant being a top 5 player in the league, this + picking up draft capital seems solid to me.
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1623564676066934785?s=46&t=1TIApwfBfTm6_zroqX8WQg
The Suns are sending Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, four first-round picks, a 2028 pick swap for Durant and TJ Warren, sources tell ESPN. Durant wanted move and new owner Mat Ishbia pushed to get deal done tonight.
Phoenix just changed the Western Conference dynamic in one fell swoop. Feel sorry for the Nuggets. Not so much the Grizzlies.
I heard 1000 times that getting off of Westbrook's contract would cost a first, and Beasley's name was at least tossed around as possibly getting a first (though probably a bad one), so LA getting both of those things done for a single pick seems like a win. Vanderbilt and 2 months of DLo are probably neutral to slightly positive assets for them (Russell has been better playing mostly off ball and shooting, which will fit well with Lebron). A closing lineup of Russell, Beasley, James, Hachimura, Davis is really good offensively. Still don't see this team getting past the 2nd round but I guess you might as well try to maximize Lebron's last few years.
For the Wolves, I think the deal is just kicking that salary slot a year down the road. Conley is probably an upgrade on Russell, but not by much. Russell and Towns can't play in the same lineup due to defensive limitations. Conley can still defend, pass, and shoot standing still. He can't play big minutes or serve as a primary creator, but he doesn't have to do that. Kind of a neutral trade for me.
This is the first time in a while (since PG to LAC?) that I have just been floored by a trade. I'm shocked how quickly it came together and I'm shocked at how much Phoenix was willing to give up. It meaningfully changes their championship odds this year and next year. That's still just a gigantic price to pay. The fact that Phoenix does not have a good record right now and isn't very healthy makes it even more of a gamble. I'm absolutely fascinated to see how it plays out.
It's funny that they had this whole failed sojourn with KD and Kyrie and have returned to a roster that looks oddly similar to the 18/19 team before they got those guys. Dinwiddie is Dinwiddie. Claxton is Allen. Thomas is Russell. Then they replaced a glut of wings (Harris, Levert, Crabbe, Carroll, RHJ) with the guys I listed above.
Injury is still an issue, but my goodness that Phoenix team is loaded this year.
I do think Ayton is solid and will be even better with Durant drawing defenders.
I don't understand what Toronto has been doing for a while now.
The Nets just feel like they are.careening between strategies.
*Checks phone*
*Comes to this thread*
So, what will Mat Ishbia do on his second day owning the Suns?
Yeah, the rotations will be fun to sort out, assuming there's not another deal today.
I think they will legitimately make like 5 other deals today.
Phoenix- the worry is depth but Ayton, Paul, and the remaining bench guys I think look better with the reduced offensive load they’ll have to carry now.
(He's still great I think you do the trade 10 times out of 10, I'm just saying...)
***
Nets lineups:
I feel like Ben Simmons is going to really explode for the rest of the season. He might average six points the rest of the way.
Who last summer would have imagined Phoenix today would have Ayton and not Bridges?
I always figured KD had a bbtf burner...
Also going to bump his FTA up to 5. Per month.
I am usually really hard on Durant and think he has been kind of a tool off the court. I won't crush him for how he handled the situation in Brooklyn. He recognized that it was a mistake to hitch his last good years to Kyrie. He kept quiet enough (at least during the season) to allow the team to negotiate relatively fair value.
EDIT: Just thinking more. Crowder and Curry have to be gone today. Royce O'Neal looks partially guaranteed for next year, so he's got to be gone (what a dumb trade that was).
I think this pushes the Suns past Memphis if they are healthy at playoff time. Denver isnt unbeatable, but are still the team to beat for me.
(I don't even think this is a hot take?) Memphis are not contenders.
What's the point? Don't you just let him play it out and see if he can improve at all? It's not like they're trying to win a championship in the next 2.5 years.
Denver vs. Phoenix will come down to Phoenix's health and if they add any depth on the wing today or through buyouts. Torrey Craig is pretty much the only wing on the roster other than KD and Booker unless you want to play lineups with 2 bigs.
Edit: Oh! TJ Warren
They're extremely willing to spend, operate in New York, have a bunch of picks and people to trade, and owe half of a decade of their own picks to Houston. They should probably be trying to win a championship in the next 2.5 years!
@rolopez42
·
7h
This is just like that time in Muppets Take Manhattan when the Muppets, after unsuccessfully attempting to take Manhattan, split up and leave Manhattan.
It's hard for me to imagine that the short-term benefit of getting him off your books is greater than the longer term benefit of the picks it would take to get him removed.
#6 Durant
#25 Johnson (I know all these things have error bars but that's a wild number)
#84 Bridges
DARKO Ranks
#4 Durant
#66 Johnson
#76 Crowder (EPM is on this year's stats alone so no ranking there)
#103 Bridges
***
I agree that Memphis is not a contender. Ja is apparently trying to generate renewable power by spinning David Stern in his grave, they play drunk and Dillon Brooks is involved.
I don't know, that's likely true, but they should explore it. Maybe Utah in a Westbrook deal is possible.
My point is that the Nets should plan to be good again next year, and I think Simmons holds them back from being good (in that he's both terrible and expensive).
But it's worth noting that KD and Ayton complement each other defensively in ways which may avoid the issue. Ayton has been effective guarding bigger wings in the past, but has had to focus on rebounding and rim protection as the only big on the court most of the time; KD is also a plus wing defender, but probably shouldn't be asked both to carry a team offensively and have the primary assignment against a Giannis or a Luka. If Ayton can be turned loose to focus on an opponent's top scorer while KD handles the paint, I don't see many teams finding a favourable matchup against that.
If (a big if) the Suns win it all, what's the narrative for CP3? Is he just a hanger-on at this point? Is Booker actually a star? Or just a sidekick?
If ya don't wanna be in ny...gtfo.
Long term they avoid losing DLo for nothing, and I am not a huge DLo fan, so I think his impact on winning is way less than his surface talent and numbers. They get three 2nd round draft picks and keep the salary going into next year (in a more flexible format IMO, breaking the slot into two pieces).
From a larger perspective, I actually think the trade works on paper for all three franchises.
I think they do this sort of move even without the Gobert trade.
GAME. CHANGED.
The West sure has changed in the last few days, especially Suns and Lakers.
i like the durant deal for brooklyn. they're not going anywhere right and got a pretty good haul back. bridges is a good asset. johnson, bird rights trap notwithstanding, is a good asset. a bunch of picks.
i get the durant deal for phoenix. paul-booker-durant-ayton is a very good core, when healthy. there's a chasm after that point (some good jump shooters, but not enough defense or quality frontcourt people) - but i don't see them as the west favorites yet and the bill will come due in time. probably an example of the new owner overpay, but flags fly forever if it works.
the threeway ... i feel like the take that it was solid value for the lakers but also an example of going halfway when they should either be more aggressive or hold back is probably true. i don't like beasley as much as some do, just because defense matters. long praised vanderbilt on this board, that certainly hasn't changed. still thinking about the utah and minnesota sides ... where conley is a better fit now (who cares?) but what do they want to do later? should help their culture, at least. thought utah would get more for some of these assets.
poeltl to toronto - like it for the spurs. yeah he was a really good defender in the past and has some other skills but hasn't played that well this year in a way that makes me worry that it could be more than bad team blues. raps overpaid.
wonder if the grizz will get a forward from brooklyn or toronto today?
Christ that's brutal.
But yeah all kidding aside they got him for basically free and he's good enough to be in the rotation, it's a fine move.
Good for Milwaukee, I just would have guessed something more useful going the other way?
(i wanted it to be hartenstein, his own history with denver notwithstanding, who has been lousy for the knicks; partly/maybe_primarily because thibs wants him to be a thing he's not)
Nah. If Crowder was going to get a FRP, Phoenix would have traded him months ago.
Edit: Sounds like Nwora is in the deal too. He's got talent, but isn't worth a FRP. Hopefully George Hill is one of the salary fillers. Mostly so Bud can't play him. Also, Grayson Allen is actually pretty solid. Like, he's a clown, and looks like a clown, but for your 8th or 9th guy, he's totally fine in that role.
Yeah that's a good point.
Oh this is interesting.
EDIT: Woj says Charlotte is also involved. Jalen McDaniels to the Sixers.
i liked goga when he was drafted; oops
I don't get this take. Weren't the Lakers Stepien-ruled into only having like the 2027 FRP available to trade? There is just no way they can stump up enough value without throwing in AD. Even for a Lakers homer take, this seems completely irrational.
also, brooklyn has no incentive to tank. they have frps - just not theirs.
Lakers could offer 2027 and 2029. Per some reports I've heard, both were offered and the Nets opted for the Dallas pick because of the players.
It's possible that the Nets didn't really think the Suns offer of this level would come. I think that's a reasonable scenario where the two deals could look inconsistent. I think the Suns deal is one they had to do. They got 7-8 FRPs worth of value.
Eh. The swap years with Houston still project to be very good picks because Houston has absolutely no ####### idea what they're doing.
What's this based on?
They're tanking. They seem to be doing a fine job of it. They've taken pretty standard players at their top draft picks. I'm not saying they're brilliant, but they haven't done anything significant that's bad. On the coaching side, the Sengun experiment (picking him looks great btw) maybe isn't fully leveraged, but coaching is temporary and they're giving it *some* run.
Although, this Nets teardown removes some incentive to tank, so maybe we'll see.
Mostly that they're on their 3rd year of being absolutely terrible and unless they get Wemby and he's an all-star out of the gate, it's unclear to me how many more years they have before they even get play-in level quality. Like, if Jalen Green is just a good player and not a great one, I don't know where that leaves them in their rebuild. Their team seems very light on talent. Also, my personal opinion is having a team full of 19-22 year olds who are just getting used to getting blown out every night season after season is not good for their development.
I think it's fair to say with Green and Jabari they drafted the consensus guy with their main picks. My point was more, I don't see a very clear path to a winning team right now.
--
if you can get wemby, you want wemby, but scoot would fit great in houston.
Guards:
Jrue
Jevon Carter
Connaughton
Allen
Wings:
Middleton
Crowder
Ingles
Matthews
Bigs:
Giannis
BroLo
Portis
I dig that team. There's Beauchamp too, but I don't think he can really help this year. A bit light on wings, but Giannis, Connaughton, and Jrue can all guard wings.
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