Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, November 07, 2022

2023 Top 50 Free Agents | FanGraphs Baseball

A full season of deGrom starts? Will that really be a thing again?

Ben’s Take
What would teams pay for a guaranteed full season of deGrom starts? No one will say, obviously, but my estimation is that several playoff locks would pay an astronomical sum. There’s no better bet to deliver a Cy Young caliber season, and his talent is magnified in the postseason; if you’re a team on the cusp of getting a playoff bye, a healthy deGrom is legitimately the best player in baseball you could add. Two deGrom starts in a Division Series if necessary? That’s a dream scenario for any contender.

Of course, you can’t guarantee health for deGrom, and that’s kind of the point. Two straight years of scary-sounding injuries and limited availability have put a damper on the prospects of the best inning-for-inning pitcher since Pedro Martinez. Can he keep throwing this hard and stay on the field? Can he even dial it back? There are no answers to these questions; teams will have to weigh them on their own. I think that gives the Mets a bit of an advantage when it comes to bringing him back, as they have more data than anyone else.

Even accounting for that risk, I think deGrom will set a record for average annual value. The top end is just so high; deGrom is better than any other pitcher in baseball, as you can see from his rate statistics up above. The combination of adding a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber for the playoffs and preventing your well-heeled opponents from doing the same is worth a fortune; baseball doesn’t always come down to the best two teams clashing, but when it does, you can bet the Dodgers would be willing to write a novelty-sized check to have deGrom on their side of the matchup. Are there risks? Absolutely. But in my eyes, teams will stomach them.

jimfurtado Posted: November 07, 2022 at 09:37 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Duke Posted: November 07, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6104669)
I'm guessing Degrom at 3/150 for the Mets.
   2. DL from MN Posted: November 07, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6104692)
Eflin just turned down more than his predicted value.
   3. John Reynard Posted: November 07, 2022 at 09:00 PM (#6104745)
Eflin just turned down more than his predicted value.

He's looking to line up a 3-5 year deal at lower AAV but more total money is my guess. I was surprised he turned down $15M as well though. Maybe he's hoping the Phillies give him a QO and he takes it? Or, maybe he really wants to start so he's going to sign with the Angels like Lorenzen did?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF


Thanks to
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Page rendered in 0.1770 seconds
45 querie(s) executed