2023 Top 50 Free Agents | FanGraphs Baseball

A full season of deGrom starts? Will that really be a thing again?

Ben’s Take
What would teams pay for a guaranteed full season of deGrom starts? No one will say, obviously, but my estimation is that several playoff locks would pay an astronomical sum. There’s no better bet to deliver a Cy Young caliber season, and his talent is magnified in the postseason; if you’re a team on the cusp of getting a playoff bye, a healthy deGrom is legitimately the best player in baseball you could add. Two deGrom starts in a Division Series if necessary? That’s a dream scenario for any contender.

Of course, you can’t guarantee health for deGrom, and that’s kind of the point. Two straight years of scary-sounding injuries and limited availability have put a damper on the prospects of the best inning-for-inning pitcher since Pedro Martinez. Can he keep throwing this hard and stay on the field? Can he even dial it back? There are no answers to these questions; teams will have to weigh them on their own. I think that gives the Mets a bit of an advantage when it comes to bringing him back, as they have more data than anyone else.

Even accounting for that risk, I think deGrom will set a record for average annual value. The top end is just so high; deGrom is better than any other pitcher in baseball, as you can see from his rate statistics up above. The combination of adding a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber for the playoffs and preventing your well-heeled opponents from doing the same is worth a fortune; baseball doesn’t always come down to the best two teams clashing, but when it does, you can bet the Dodgers would be willing to write a novelty-sized check to have deGrom on their side of the matchup. Are there risks? Absolutely. But in my eyes, teams will stomach them.