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Monday, November 07, 2022

2023 Top 50 Free Agents | FanGraphs Baseball

A full season of deGrom starts? Will that really be a thing again?

Ben’s Take
What would teams pay for a guaranteed full season of deGrom starts? No one will say, obviously, but my estimation is that several playoff locks would pay an astronomical sum. There’s no better bet to deliver a Cy Young caliber season, and his talent is magnified in the postseason; if you’re a team on the cusp of getting a playoff bye, a healthy deGrom is legitimately the best player in baseball you could add. Two deGrom starts in a Division Series if necessary? That’s a dream scenario for any contender.

Of course, you can’t guarantee health for deGrom, and that’s kind of the point. Two straight years of scary-sounding injuries and limited availability have put a damper on the prospects of the best inning-for-inning pitcher since Pedro Martinez. Can he keep throwing this hard and stay on the field? Can he even dial it back? There are no answers to these questions; teams will have to weigh them on their own. I think that gives the Mets a bit of an advantage when it comes to bringing him back, as they have more data than anyone else.

Even accounting for that risk, I think deGrom will set a record for average annual value. The top end is just so high; deGrom is better than any other pitcher in baseball, as you can see from his rate statistics up above. The combination of adding a pitcher of deGrom’s caliber for the playoffs and preventing your well-heeled opponents from doing the same is worth a fortune; baseball doesn’t always come down to the best two teams clashing, but when it does, you can bet the Dodgers would be willing to write a novelty-sized check to have deGrom on their side of the matchup. Are there risks? Absolutely. But in my eyes, teams will stomach them.

jimfurtado Posted: November 07, 2022 at 09:37 AM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents

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   1. The Duke Posted: November 07, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6104669)
I'm guessing Degrom at 3/150 for the Mets.
   2. DL from MN Posted: November 07, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6104692)
Eflin just turned down more than his predicted value.
   3. John Reynard Posted: November 07, 2022 at 09:00 PM (#6104745)
Eflin just turned down more than his predicted value.

He's looking to line up a 3-5 year deal at lower AAV but more total money is my guess. I was surprised he turned down $15M as well though. Maybe he's hoping the Phillies give him a QO and he takes it? Or, maybe he really wants to start so he's going to sign with the Angels like Lorenzen did?

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