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Wednesday, December 08, 2021

Baseball Hall of Fame tracker 2022

DL from MN Posted: December 08, 2021 at 11:35 AM | 1188 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1101. base ball chick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:50 AM (#6061951)
1099. SoSH U at work Posted: January 21, 2022 at 11:25 PM (#6061943)

But you can throw all that out. Do you think a PED-free guy with 509 career homers and nine all-star appearances would be struggling to get 50 percent of the vote? Sure, there may be some guys who are withholding votes for him because he was such a genuine #######, but that's just never been an actual dealbreaker before.


- but there is not any argument that sheffield somehow benefitted from roids. he was given stuff one winter by the balco people - certainly did not change any kind of stats

"New York Yankees outfielder Gary Sheffield admitted using a testosterone-based steroid supplied by BALCO after being introduced to the Burlingame-based lab by Barry Bonds.

In this week's edition of Sports Illustrated, Sheffield said he applied a steroid known as "the cream" on his surgically scarred right leg to heal wounds, though he insisted he didn't know it was a steroid. Sheffield said he used the drug before and during the 2002 season.

"I guess one thing I was struck with is that although Sheffield claims to have been introduced to Barry's inner sanctum of trainers and the like, he still claims to have no knowledge that Barry was given or ever took anything that would be considered to be illegal," said Bons attorney.

Sheffield's Burlingame-based attorney, Paula Canny, said, "My client has never knowingly used or ingested anything illegal."


he didn't fail a test, there is zero proof he was even given steroids

there is no change in body, there was no improvement in stats blahblahblah

cmon

it's a LOT more than just balco association
   1102. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 01:02 AM (#6061952)
he didn't fail a test, there is zero proof he was even given steroids



Barry and Roger didn't fail tests.

There's less evidence Sammy used anything than Sheff did. He's been convicted all the same.

The BBWAA has elected many, many players it has had more issues with than Gary Sheffield, who generally got a pass for being an #######. Eddie Murray and Steve Carlton treated the press like crap for the entirety of their careers, and they sailed in on the first ballots (Sheff, in contrast, was more than happy to fill their notebooks, which is really the most important thing to them).

The writers sure as hell disliked Barry Lamar more than they did Sheff, and Bonds would gone in easily in if not for his BALCO association.

Sheffield's history of being a pain in the ass might have cost him a few votes on the margins. But his association with PEDs, fair or not, is doing the overwhelming bulk of the work in keeping his vote down.
   1103. base ball chick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 01:20 AM (#6061953)
people WANT Da Villinnn

and why roger, i'm not sure, except that he was unbelieveably good, and of course barry lamar had long since got tabbed as Da Bad Guy - so they wuz goin down, no matter how lousy the "evidence." barry was beyond Uppity. at least to media.

people see what they want to believe

the case against sammy is xenophobia. period. he can't espicka da inliss gud and needs a translator for freaking congress. like none of us would want a translator in another country facing their government. the HOF case for sammy is not more than Home Runs. i wonder if he would have got in if he had had negative pee samples every day from the time he was 18. he was Uppity too

i think sheff is seen as more than just a PIA. like dick allen
   1104. TomH Posted: January 22, 2022 at 07:12 AM (#6061961)
Reggie Jackson was uppity. Yogi couldn't speak correctly. Cobb was .. Cobb. Bob Gibson was arrogant (still is), and so surely was Bob Feller.

The country has had it share of problems with so-called "uppity", but I don't think we can blame Sosa or Bonds (or McGwire!) HOF fate on that.

--
But people want DA Villinn? Yeah, that is so true, and relevant here. Papi ain't da villin. Guys breakin records, dey da villin.
   1105. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 07:43 AM (#6061962)
and why roger, i'm not sure, except that he was unbelieveably good, and of course barry lamar had long since got tabbed as Da Bad Guy - so they wuz goin down, no matter how lousy the "evidence." barry was beyond Uppity. at least to media.


It's not complicated. It's the roids. The writers surely didn't have as many negative feelings toward Roger as they did toward Barry, yet they've moved in almost lockstep since coming onto the ballot. Not surprising, they're two of the greatest players of all time, both qualified for the Hall many times over. Were they not connected (however questionable that evidence might be) to PEDs, they'd have gone in first ballot.

Sheff, like Sammy and others from that pre-testing era, are less worthy, so they've garnered support somewhere south of those two.

people see what they want to believe


No question about that.

There's simply no evidence the writers have held personal animus toward the player against them. All of the easily qualified players, and some of the unqualified ones, have had no trouble gaining support from the BBWAA.

Bob Gibson was arrogant (still is),


He's probably over it by now.
   1106. JJ1986 Posted: January 22, 2022 at 08:29 AM (#6061965)
I agree that it's roids, but why do writers love Nelson Cruz and Bartolo Colon and no one cares that Jorge Polanco or Starling Marte used? Fatigue? Different population?
   1107. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 08:36 AM (#6061967)
Bob Gibson was arrogant (still is)

Just last night he rose up from the grave and beaned Johnny Bench.

Gibson said "I'm not really angry at Bench, I just wanted some company."
   1108. LargeBill Posted: January 22, 2022 at 08:56 AM (#6061970)
1106. JJ1986 Posted: January 22, 2022 at 08:29 AM (#6061965)
I agree that it's roids, but why do writers love Nelson Cruz and Bartolo Colon and no one cares that Jorge Polanco or Starling Marte used? Fatigue? Different population?


As to the first question, it's pretty simple, Cruz and Colon are fun guys. Always friendly and ready to give a quote or two. Writers are sort of like the rest of us and like people who are likeable. I defy you to find one person who didn't laugh at ancient Bartolo hitting his first home run. Some guys are just easy to root for. I doubt that "love" from writers will translate into HOF votes for Cruz in 7 or 8 years from now. As to the second half of the question regarding Polanco and Marte, neither is a threat to break any significant record, and a large part of the writer anger over PEDs is the feeling that users cheated and destroyed the sacred record book. Also, both are from the Dominican Republic and between the language barrier and over-the-counter supplements (that include banned stuff) available when they go home for off season, we tend to give them some benefit of the doubt on possibility of being an accidental usage.
   1109. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 09:02 AM (#6061974)
I agree that it's roids, but why do writers love Nelson Cruz and Bartolo Colon?


They used to ask the same thing about Andy Pettitte.

no one cares that Jorge Polanco or Starling Marte used?


Because no one cares about Jorge Polanco or Starling Marte to begin with.

But I think there's a difference between someone's reputation in the game by the active beat writers and how it translates to Hall voting. Bonds won the MVP 11 months after he testified about the cream and clear. Was that love?

Another thing I believe is at work with some of these guys, particularly Ortiz, is when the involvement with roids happened. For Ortiz, his name was reportedly on a list in 2003, before he was even good, and not reported until later that decade. He then had seven more years to rewrite his narrative. The same for Nelson Cruz and Bartolo Colon.

For Barry, Roger, McGwire and Sosa, they left the game at the height of the steroid madness. That was our final imprint of them, and they didn't have the opportunity to change that impression.
   1110. base ball chick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 11:22 AM (#6061989)
with BLB fer sher it is TATSHRR. that and Da Bad Guy

- no sheff but yes ortiz??? well ortiz has that largern life personality and massive post season heroics. and ortiz has most definitely been tabbed as a roider even though substances on that 2003 list include stuff that was perfectly legal at the time. this is assuming ortiz even WAS on that list. someone just said and there is zero proof. same with the others

- roger? i guess it must be The All Time Sacred Cy Young Awards Record. or something. do NOT get the hate

no one cares, not writers, not fans, if some player gets CAUGHT (unlike BB, rojah and sosa) as long as the player isn't one of the 10 best players at his position evah. which is why nobody cares about miggy tejada getting caught TWICE. or why at the height of Da Fury guys caught using were not released. or even were signed to FA contracts. because the fans who suposedly hate roiders, do NOT care about anyone else using
   1111. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6061990)
no one cares, not writers, not fans, if some player gets CAUGHT (unlike BB, rojah and sosa) as long as the player isn't one of the 10 best players at his position evah. which is why nobody cares about miggy tejada getting caught TWICE. or why at the height of Da Fury guys caught using were not released. or even were signed to FA contracts. because the fans who suposedly hate roiders, do NOT care about anyone else using


Miguel Tejada, he of the same WAR as Jimmy Rollins and more than Omar Vizquel, appeared on one Hall ballot. He got five votes.

Barry and Roger get the bulk of the coverage because they were the very best players. It's natural. That the writers didn't spill a lot of ink on Marvin Benard does not mean his PED ties are ignored, just that Marvin Benard is ignored.
   1112. base ball chick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6061993)
media or no media, the FANS didn't scream at any of the players who have gotten popped since testing started. besides palmeiro that is. the fans just don't CARE about all Those EVULLLLL Cheetz. they care about exactly 6 of them. and that is IT. cano has got popped twice. where is all the hate? and the fans didn't shower tejada with hate even though he got named in the mitchell report and unlike a lot of others, there were actual receipts from his drug dealer. silence from team/fans. AND the media didn't go after tejada for mitchell report OR when he got caught later. no complaints that his HR derby crown was "tainted" and that he stole it from a "clean" berkman. just 6 guys are Teh EVULLL
   1113. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:02 PM (#6061994)

media or no media, the FANS didn't scream at any of the players who have gotten popped since testing started. besides palmeiro that is. the fans just don't CARE about all Those EVULLLLL Cheetz. they care about exactly 6 of them. and that is IT. cano has got popped twice. where is all the hate? and the fans didn't shower tejada with hate even though he got named in the mitchell report and unlike a lot of others, there were actual receipts from his drug dealer. silence from team/fans. AND the media didn't go after tejada for mitchell report OR when he got caught later. no complaints that his HR derby crown was "tainted" and that he stole it from a "clean" berkman. just 6 guys are Teh EVULLL


As you said, people see what they want to believe. You're doing it right now.
   1114. base ball chick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:14 PM (#6061997)
well, then remove the veil from mah lyin eyes

what am i wrong about
   1115. Adam Starblind Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:18 PM (#6061998)
. cano has got popped twice. where is all the hate?


Know any Mets fans? Because I have no desire to see the un-roided version of Cano slap singles while earning a roid-inflated power-hitter’s salary.
   1116. alilisd Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:27 PM (#6061999)
And how many of those players above or around him from the OPS+ and HR categories, absent PED ties, wouldn't sail into the Hall of Fame?


Ah, good point. The guys who are lingering are PED related. Of the 12 on the list Palmeiro actually dropped off, Juan Gon was never even considered (PED's or lack of quality, who knows?), then Bonds, Ramirez, and Sheffield are all lingering. Thomas and Jones first ballot, Piazza and Bagwell take a while. But can you disentangle Sheffield lingering because Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and others are lingering on the ballot taking up space for PED and other reasons from Sheffield's case? I suppose Guerrero is a pretty good case to say so.


But you can throw all that out. Do you think a PED-free guy with 509 career homers and nine all-star appearances would be struggling to get 50 percent of the vote? Sure, there may be some guys who are withholding votes for him because he was such a genuine #######, but that's just never been an actual dealbreaker before.


Dick Allen says hello. :-)
   1117. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:39 PM (#6062001)
what am i wrong about


You've concocted a narrative that the steroids issue was all about Barry and the home run records, and whatever evidence doesn't fit into that narrative is ignored. Kiko laid out a pretty solid examination of the steroids timeline, and neither Barry nor Roger really fit into it.

Baseball fans never liked Barry much (some it deserved, much of it not), and Clemens came to unpopularity later in his career due to his dual incidents with Piazza. They're also historically great players, and those types of players often become targets of opposing fans' jeers simply due to their excellence (see Tom Brady or LeBron James).

The rest of the guys you mentioned weren't really hated, any more than Ryan Braun or Miggy Tejada.

Barry won an MVP after news of the cream and clear broke. No one has ever tried to take it away from him in the same way no one has tried to reclaim Miggy's treasured HR derby crown.

On the other hand, Melky Cabrera felt the need to take himself out of the running for the BA title, a consideration that shouldn't even exist, so it's not as if post-testing usage is considered AOK.

But whatever evolution the steroid story has undergone, enough of the BBWAA to matter has clearly drawn a line in the sand on roids. Those they've convicted have stalled short of election, with the two greatest players getting the highest degree of support and those under them seeing much lower levels.
   1118. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:42 PM (#6062002)
well, then remove the veil from mah lyin eyes

what am i wrong about

?
He and others have been giving you their take on that question throughout this thread, as well as in countless other threads over the years.

I agree with some of what you say and disagree with some of what you say. But you're as biased as anyone else. The fact that you named your dog after Bonds is pretty strong evidence that you might not be an objective voice on the subject.
   1119. Ron J Posted: January 22, 2022 at 05:40 PM (#6062023)
I think the best argument you can make on the character front (regarding Sheffield not being in) would be Bill Dahlen. And that's not precisely on point.

First, all HOF cases back then were narrative. Second, he has a complicated statistical case. Consistently good defensively for a long time and could hold his own at the plate. That's a valuable player but players who do a lot of things well are generally underrated.

Further, the notion that he was a top tier defender would have been a tough sell to those who saw him play -- his rep for a long time was as an airhead who'd rather be at the track. And he made a lot of errors. Yeah, so did everybody but confirmation bias and all that.

In the end, he got less support than the monitor predicts, but the monitor didn't see him as a particularly likely HOFer.

By contrast, the monitor sees Sheffield as a very likely HOFer. Yeah, the monitor doesn't work as well as it did before and there are key parts of his case bolstered by sillyball. Adjusting for context, Sheff's below average for a HOF RF. But the top tier RF are awfully good. He doesn't look out of place compared to typical HOF RF.

I think Sheffield's the kind of guy people are looking for reasons to vote against. While Ortiz is somebody that most voters are happy to vote for. (even if the evidence against either player is broadly similar -- probably stronger against Ortiz)

Shrug. I've long since given up expecting logic or consistency from the no steroids crowd.



   1120. The Duke Posted: January 22, 2022 at 06:47 PM (#6062031)
I was looking at the NHL thread and it says the following

“Commenting is not available in this channel entry.”

What does that mean - has that thread been ended?
   1121. base ball chick Posted: January 22, 2022 at 07:01 PM (#6062035)
i name almost all my Dogz after baseball players, male and female. BLB i particularly noticed not just because he was the best ballplayer i had ever seen (and still have ever seen) - but because he's this interesting human who's so very intelligent but so people stupid most of the time. BL Dog is my very favorite Dog i ever had and i miss . not sure BLB would be my most favorite human being i have ever known.


1117. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 12:39 PM (#6062001)

what am i wrong about

You've concocted a narrative that the steroids issue was all about Barry and the home run records, and whatever evidence doesn't fit into that narrative is ignored. Kiko laid out a pretty solid examination of the steroids timeline, and neither Barry nor Roger really fit into it.


- kiko is dead right about the steroids timeline. i have never disagreed with that.

i know that some of the fans/BBWAA have drawn that line in the sand about rumored use or proven use of roids. i am asking you to take a look at WHO it is that they have stamped "guilty" especially when they have NO actual proof of any sort. i am asking you if mcgwire would have been stamped with Teh Hate if he had not broken the record that he did. at least he stated on the record that he took roids - even if it WAS later when he could not be prosecuted. do you really think that the smearing of a guy whose inliss was no so gud would have been that intense if he had not been involved with a certain record? cmon

and how is it that i am wrong about only 6 ballplayers getting Teh Hate?

Duke
i think some threads shut themself down when they get to a certain amount of time or comments
   1122. SoSH U at work Posted: January 22, 2022 at 07:43 PM (#6062042)
and how is it that i am wrong about only 6 ballplayers getting Teh Hate?


Help me out here. Who are the six?
   1123. John Northey Posted: January 22, 2022 at 10:15 PM (#6062060)
Steroid hate - Canseco #1 with good reason, Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, Palmeiro, McGwire, Sosa, Manny Ramirez are the biggest I think. Others have the label at times, but little 'punishment' - Piazza 'back acne', I-Rod named in Canseco's book, etc.

Funny thing is how little writers look back and ask 'did this guy do it - seems kind of obvious now'. Guys like Kirby Puckett (0 HR in a full season to 30+ 2 years later? After a major workout regime in the 80's is my #1 smoking gun). But in truth we'll never know for sure who did and didn't beyond those who tested positive (but sometimes false positives do happen) or who confessed to it (McGwire, Pettitte [claims for only 2 days], Sheffield [used the cream while training with Bonds]).

I suspect in a decade or two most will forget about it as those who lived through it age out of voting, and others just go 'what is the difference between that and a spitball'.
   1124. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 23, 2022 at 11:15 AM (#6062096)
The rest of the guys you mentioned weren't really hated, any more than Ryan Braun or Miggy Tejada.

I feel like Braun at least came in for a fair amount of hate around the time Biogenesis first became public knowledge, especially since his 2011 MVP win was still very much in recent memory. He also seems like a guy who would have gotten moderate Hall support without it (especially since, as discussed earlier in the thread, one-team players tend to fare better with the voters); that is unlikely with the PED ties.
   1125. John Northey Posted: January 23, 2022 at 06:42 PM (#6062150)
Oh yeah, Braun was hit hard due to it coming out right after his MVP award. Many wanted it revoked as I recall. It was ugly. Pretty much forgotten now though by most. (I know I forgot about it until mentioned here, then it came back quick).
   1126. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 23, 2022 at 06:56 PM (#6062152)
Anti-Semitism!
   1127. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 23, 2022 at 07:50 PM (#6062157)
Steroid hate - Canseco #1 with good reason, Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, Palmeiro, McGwire, Sosa, Manny Ramirez


Except that A-Rod and Manny actually got caught cheating. Personally I don't give a hoot and would vote for them, but for many this is a clear and understandable distinction as to why they didn't receive HOF votes.
   1128. base ball chick Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:19 AM (#6062213)
the 6?

1 - bonds
2 - clemens

YUGE gap

3 - sosa
4 - mcgwire

all yall notice anything in common

5 - arod (he deserves it for all the lying when caught) and he used for so many years - confessed and caught - that who knows if the supposed magic fairy dust actually DID anything to boost his career

welp. looks like only 5. sorry bout that

i would have added canseco but he got rid of 99% of the hate when he wrote that book snitching on all the other guys. snitching shows goodness of heart

manny got caught at the end of his career and so there is not real too much hate.

cano gets a small amount of hate only because of his salary. if he was getting the minimum, no one would care. i don't see no media/fans piling bonds type hate on him or ANYONE ELSE caught, and bonds was NOT caught and nobody who had any proof of his supposed using was ever found. WHAT?

who hated braun after 2012? who hates him NOW?

and like i keep saying, NOBODY cares about anyone else CAUGHT using roids. name ONE player who was actually popped for roids in the past 10 years who was hated by fans - i mean - stuff like signs at the ballpark, media demands that the player get DFAd, ANYTHING. i never saw anything in the media demanding anyone, ANYONE popped get blackballed from baseball, no scathing hate filled rants about the EVULLLLLness of that player

heck, there was more screaming about osuna and all he did was beat his woman up. i mean, he didn't do no drugs. nobody EVER cared about anyone using amphetamines then or now - even bonds who actually WAS popped for greenies.
   1129. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6062215)
all yall notice anything in common


What does Roger have in common with Sammy and Mac?

And if Manny isn't hated, he must be doing better than Roger and Barry in Hall voting.

Nope, that doesn't check out.

So how does this hate manifest in any meaningful way?

   1130. The Duke Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:55 AM (#6062216)
Predictions on whether Ortiz makes it?

I’m guessing yes
   1131. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 24, 2022 at 11:11 AM (#6062221)
I was looking at the NHL thread and it says the following

“Commenting is not available in this channel entry.”

What does that mean - has that thread been ended?


Duke, it's updated and I just commented in it. For some reason some threads get assigned a date after which commenting isn't allowed. That date was reached on that thread. I removed the date so it's active again.
   1132. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 24, 2022 at 11:12 AM (#6062222)
who hated braun after 2012? who hates him NOW?
Cubs fans, for one. He gets roundly booed every time at Wrigley.
   1133. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: January 24, 2022 at 11:13 AM (#6062223)
and like i keep saying, NOBODY cares about anyone else CAUGHT using roids. name ONE player who was actually popped for roids in the past 10 years who was hated by fans - i mean - stuff like signs at the ballpark, media demands that the player get DFAd, ANYTHING. i never saw anything in the media demanding anyone, ANYONE popped get blackballed from baseball, no scathing hate filled rants about the EVULLLLLness of that player


I think that stuff no longer happens in large part because MLB (and other sports) actually hand down penalties. I think guys "getting away with it" was what bothered a lot of people. There's a lot more to it than that of course but in simple terms I think that's why you don't see that stuff.
   1134. Jack Sommers Posted: January 24, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6062234)
who hated braun after 2012? who hates him NOW?


Cubs fans, for one. He gets roundly booed every time at Wrigley.


I know a lot of Dbacks fans that still hate him and the Brewers because of what happened in the NLDS in 2011 when he went 9 for 18 with 4 doubles, a homer, posting a 1,460 OPS , scoring 5 runs and 4 RBI



   1135. Adam Starblind Posted: January 24, 2022 at 12:37 PM (#6062242)
1 - bonds
2 - clemens

YUGE gap

3 - sosa
4 - mcgwire

all yall notice anything in common


Well, we can probably eliminate any racial component. It's true that Yusaku Iriki seems to be getting a free pass, so maybe there's a pro-Japanese bias?
   1136. base ball chick Posted: January 24, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6062266)
1129. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6062215)

all yall notice anything in common



What does Roger have in common with Sammy and Mac?


- he has an all time record


And if Manny isn't hated, he must be doing better than Roger and Barry in Hall voting.


-
nah
he's not hated
he's dismissed not dissed

he doesn't live here, doesn't come here, nobody cares at all

So how does this hate manifest in any meaningful way?


- none of them have ANY evidence against them and 2 of them have been completely exonerated in freaking FEDERAL court after the govt - the FEDERAL GOVT spent zillions on them doing their dammmdest to get them put in FEDERAL prison and failed. failed spectacularly with clemens. guess how many people

and with clemens all the media demanded he sue, then testify in front of congress, then go from there and he DID and he's STILL falsely convocted. just like bonds. and there was never ANY evidence with sosa whatsoever except his inliss is not da gud and he hit da home ruunz

in mah not so umble opinyin, people insisting that you have gotten away with umpty counts of felonies and escaping federal pen is very meaningful.

p.s.
i disbelieve it is racial. BLB and clemens get just about equal hate.



   1137. base ball chick Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:02 PM (#6062268)
1134. Jack Sommers Posted: January 24, 2022 at 11:59 AM (#6062234)

who hated braun after 2012? who hates him NOW?




Cubs fans, for one. He gets roundly booed every time at Wrigley.
- did this happen before 2011? did it continue all the way through THIS yea?

I know a lot of Dbacks fans that still hate him and the Brewers because of what happened in the NLDS in 2011 when he went 9 for 18 with 4 doubles, a homer, posting a 1,460 OPS , scoring 5 runs and 4 RBI


- i get that all right

beltran got booed loudly until 2017 and he wasn't even accused of doing roids don't ask me why - i mean, look at his running skillz
   1138. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6062269)
What does Roger have in common with Sammy and Mac?

- he has an all time record


Not sure what record you're referring to. If it's single-game strikeouts (9-inning division), this was set before he's alleged to have started on the juice. His other records, far as I can tell, are Cy Young awards (which aren't analogous to home runs, as they aren't something the player does directly on the field), and a few SABR-type stats that can only be calculated for part of baseball history (i.e. RE24 or WPA/LI).
   1139. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:06 PM (#6062271)
- he has an all time record


Nothing meaningful (most Cys).

BLB and clemens get just about equal hate.


Also, not coincidentally, the most widely disliked of all these guys before roids.

BLB (not ours) and Clemens were two of the game's most hated players before juicing, owing to their personalities and standing as all-time greats. Both of those factors are why they get more "hate" than Sammy or Mac or Raffy. The latter is why they get more Hall support than any of the media-convicted PED users.

   1140. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:09 PM (#6062272)
- did this happen before 2011? did it continue all the way through THIS yea?

Braun didn't play this year; the last time anyone had a chance to boo him in person would have been 2019. (Not sure if the boos continued that long; I haven't been to a game of any kind, let alone a Brewers-specific game, in a few years.)
   1141. Adam Starblind Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6062275)

Braun didn't play this year; the last time anyone had a chance to boo him in person would have been 2019. (Not sure if the boos continued that long; I haven't been to a game of any kind, let alone a Brewers-specific game, in a few years.)
and

On Purim we stamp our feet and rattle noisemakers when they say his name.
   1142. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2022 at 03:14 PM (#6062276)
As Braun started to become more pedestrian as a player, any vitriol directed his way diminished. If Braun had continued to play at his MVP level, the animosity from opposing fans would have been far stronger.

That's nothing new.
   1143. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2022 at 05:44 PM (#6062301)
Predictions on whether Ortiz makes it?
Ortiz at 84.5% seems to have pulled far enough ahead of Bonds (77.5%) & Clemens (76.5%) to probably make it, with just under 50% of the expected vote accounted for. Don’t really have a problem with that, although the anti-PED, DH-Penalty, WAR-Determinative & Small-Hall voters who’ve carved out an exception for Ortiz should favor other players with a more consistent approach.
   1144. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 24, 2022 at 07:39 PM (#6062316)
Don’t really have a problem with that, although the anti-PED, DH-Penalty, WAR-Determinative & Small-Hall voters who’ve carved out an exception for Ortiz should favor other players with a more consistent approach.


But the voting has never been consistent. 23 guys didn't vote for Willie freaking Mays in 1979. Probably the same 23 guys who didn't vote for Musial 10 years earlier. And 10 years later, 24! guys didn't vote for Yaz.
Apparently the same 9 guys didn't vote for Aaron or Brett either.

Yet everyone voted for a relief pitcher who didn't provide more value then 3 SP on the ballot today who will barely get 40 votes between them.

So please show me a history of consistent voting and we can have a conversation about it.
   1145. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 24, 2022 at 07:44 PM (#6062317)
Alomar had a higher percentage in public ballots than Ortiz and didn’t make it his first year, iirc. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ortiz has to wait a year, but definitely favored to get in this year.
   1146. reech Posted: January 24, 2022 at 08:26 PM (#6062322)
The Mays, Musial, Aaron (or Berra), etc voters are pretty much dead at this point. So, I don't think they'd have that many votes to withold.
   1147. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2022 at 09:05 PM (#6062327)
But the voting has never been consistent. 23 guys didn't vote for Willie freaking Mays in 1979. Probably the same 23 guys who didn't vote for Musial 10 years earlier.
Yes, it’s an imperfect process, that still usually works well enough overall, but we are probably going to see more than 23 inconsistent Ortiz voters, just on the PED issue. We’re not talking about a few outliers, but carving out an exception after years of not supporting other deserving players, many of whom have a stronger case.
   1148. dark Posted: January 24, 2022 at 09:31 PM (#6062333)
The Alomar year, there were 92 public ballots of more than 500. This year, it's almost 200 of roughly 400. Ortiz being at 84.5% now is a much bigger deal than Alomar being 82/92.
   1149. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 24, 2022 at 09:48 PM (#6062335)
The Mays, Musial, Aaron (or Berra), etc voters are pretty much dead at this point. So, I don't think they'd have that many votes to withold.


Yes, I know you're trolling but the point is the voting has never been consistent. Wagner has 87 votes and Lincecum has 6. Sure Wagner has more WAR, but Lincecum at least pitched like a HOFer for a couple of years there.

It was like Webb all over again. BTW, Webb has 1300+ IP, 31.1BWAR, 1 CY and 2x2nds and no one is pushing for him to go to the HOF. Yeah, I know, short career. But innings wise....
   1150. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 24, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6062337)
other deserving players, many of whom have a stronger case.


Agree. On my PHOF ballot, I had Bonds, Clemens, A-rod, Manny and Sheffield. Along with Andruw (just because I think he's close enough WAR wise and being arguably the greatest OF ever carries a lot of weight for me), and of course I included Ortiz.
   1151. SoSH U at work Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6062341)

It was like Webb all over again. BTW, Webb has 1300+ IP, 31.1BWAR, 1 CY and 2x2nds and no one is pushing for him to go to the HOF. Yeah, I know, short career.


Webb was never eligible.
   1152. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:39 PM (#6062343)
did this happen before 2011? did it continue all the way through THIS yea?
To the best of my knowledge, the booing started after the PED test and (possibly more importantly) his behavior in the aftermath. It continued - yeah, not as strongly, but still quite noticeably - until the end of his career. I’m very confident he would get booed at Wrigley if he were introduced in whatever capacity in 2022.
   1153. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 24, 2022 at 10:48 PM (#6062347)
Webb was never eligible.


Yes, I know. Point was that his career is too short for HOF eligibility, yet he has more innings and BWAR then most relievers in the HOF...

   1154. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 25, 2022 at 10:42 AM (#6062392)
Results will be announced tonight. Ortiz is looking good at 84% and just under half of the ballots accounted for by Thibs.

I don't expect Bonds/Clements to get all that close, but maybe some crazy stuff will happen since it's their final year. Getting 70% would be a boost for their VC campaigns.
   1155. CFBF is Obsessed with Art Deco Posted: January 25, 2022 at 11:40 AM (#6062407)
It's kind of funny how much tracking Hall of Fame voting has become like projecting election results. Weigh the early votes against the late arrivals, etc.
   1156. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 25, 2022 at 11:40 AM (#6062408)
Ortiz is looking good at 84% and just under half of the ballots accounted for by Thibs.


I expect him to make it, but I also remember the Alomar.
   1157. Karl from NY Posted: January 25, 2022 at 02:22 PM (#6062436)
Getting 70% would be a boost for their VC campaigns.

It's way early, but any guesses for how the VC voters will view steroids? Will former players be vindictive against the "cheaters", or will they be in solidarity with fellow players against the persecution?
   1158. SoSH U at work Posted: January 25, 2022 at 04:33 PM (#6062461)

It's way early, but any guesses for how the VC voters will view steroids?


I think it will be a long time before they get in. Mac went nowhere his only year even qualifying for the Vets ballot.

My guess is it will take the committee being made up more of Bonds'/Clemens' peers before they get elected.

The wildcard here is Ortiz's election. It's possible that will open a door that would have otherwise remained closed.

   1159. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 25, 2022 at 04:54 PM (#6062464)
The wildcard here is Ortiz's election. It's possible that will open a door that would have otherwise remained closed.

A-Rod getting in would also be huge for Bonds and Clemens. He should finish around 30% this year but has a lot of time to get to 75%. I suspect he has too many writers who are permanently opposed to him, but if he did get elected it would be untenable to have Bonds and Clemens out.
   1160. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 25, 2022 at 05:11 PM (#6062466)
An hour to go... any guesses

Mine looks like this
Ortiz 78 (elected)
Bonds 65 (drops off)
Clemens 64 (drops off)
Rolen 61 (didn't gain as much as I had hoped, but it will be less crowded in 2023)
Schilling 58 (drops off)
Helton 52 (gaining nicely)
Wagner 50 (passed by Helton, but has a chance)
Sheffield 42 (stuck about here)
Jones 41 (strong slow surge is gaining momentum)
A-Rod 36 (he'll be stuck here for a while too)
Kent 32 (stuck here, will get 10th year boost, but will still finish under 40%)
Ramirez 30 (stuck here too)
Sosa 20 (drops off)
Vizquel 16 (biggest YOY drop I can recall seeing)
Pettitte 13 (nothing to say... stuck)
Rollins 11 (better than expected)
Abreu 10 (no movement but maybe poised to move up)
Buehrle 7 (probably destined to languish here or within a few percentage points)
Hunter 5 (decent chance of falling off, but I think he survives by 1 vote)

Eliminated
Hudson 3
Lincecum 3
Howard 2
Nathan 2
Teixeira 2
Papelbon 1
Fielder 1
Morneau > 0
Pierzynski > 0
Crawford 0
Peavy 0
   1161. SoSH U at work Posted: January 25, 2022 at 05:22 PM (#6062467)
Rolen 61 (didn't gain as much as I had hoped, but it will be less crowded in 2023)


He went up 13 percentage points on the public ballots. That's pretty damn good. He's well-positioned for next year.
   1162. alilisd Posted: January 25, 2022 at 05:44 PM (#6062470)
@ 1159: Regarding a-rod getting in B&C had a lot of time to get to 75%, too.
   1163. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:17 PM (#6062474)
He went up 13 percentage points on the public ballots. That's pretty damn good. He's well-positioned for next year.

Rolen has gone 23/27 among public first-time voters over the last two years; he's tied Bonds and Clemens in that category both years, and nobody (including Ortiz this year) has surpassed him in the category. Obviously the denominator isn't huge, but it's another hopefully-promising sign moving forward.
   1164. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:19 PM (#6062475)
Papi gets elected 1st year.
Congrats
   1165. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:20 PM (#6062476)
Big Papi, period. Good choice.
   1166. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:23 PM (#6062478)
Ortiz 78 (elected)


Way off ... he was 77.9%.
   1167. Jaack Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:30 PM (#6062479)
Congrats to Ortiz!

Looks like Bonds and Clemens saw about a 5 point bump. Not enough, but definitely looks like they would have gotten in with 15 years. I guess that change did it's job.

Rolen and Helton see nice gains, with Rolen well primed for 2023. Helton could be in line for 2024 or 2025.

Personally, of all the one-and-dones, I think Jake Peavy was probably the best player and he was one of two not to receive any votes. That makes me sad.
   1168. phredbird Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:47 PM (#6062480)

papi and no one else. this is ridiculous.

he's got as much of a whiff of steroids on him as anybody else.

normally i think wilbon is an idiot when it comes to baseball, but he made a point on PTI today that if the hall doesnt have clemens and bonds in it, it is starting to look irrelevant.

year by year, i'm beginning to feel much the same about the HOF, and maybe even the game, somewhat. i watch the cardinals. i watch the playoffs. but it's feeling more like a habit than an attachment.
   1169. Tony S Posted: January 25, 2022 at 06:49 PM (#6062481)

It's going to be his f**king ceremony.

Muchas felicidades, David.

   1170. SoSH U at work Posted: January 25, 2022 at 07:07 PM (#6062485)
My skepticism was unfounded. Congrats Papi.
   1171. yest Posted: January 25, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6062492)
but definitely looks like they would have gotten in with 15 years. I guess that change did it's job


The change got them that far, remember they also purged writers who were more likely to vote against peds.

Each year the voters who voted against peds got less and less due to these new rules.

They probably gained much more than they would have lost by changing the old rules.
These rules were designed to help elect steroid players and they did.

There is no way either irod or ortiz get elected on the 1st ballot with the old system
   1172. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 25, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6062526)
normally i think wilbon is an idiot when it comes to baseball, but he made a point on PTI today that if the hall doesnt have clemens and bonds in it, it is starting to look irrelevant.


All time HR king and the maybe the best SP of the last 50 years can't get in. what a joke.
   1173. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 25, 2022 at 10:28 PM (#6062531)
Players who will be back next year, and their percentage change over last year's voting:

Rolen 63.2 (+10.3)
Helton 52.0 (+7.1)
Wagner 51.0 (+4.6)
Jones 41.1 (+7.2)
Sheffield 40.6 (no change)
A-Rod 34.3 (first year)
Kent 32.7 (+0.3)
Manny 28.9 (+0.7)
Vizquel 23.9 (-25.2)
Pettitte 10.7 (-3.0)
Rollins 9.4 (first year)
Abreu 8.6 (-0.1)
Buehrle 5.8 (-5.2)
Hunter 5.3 (-4.2)

Among public voters at least, Jones and Helton actually tied for the most adds (+20); they just both also had quite a few drops. I assume most if not all of the drops will be back next year on a much thinner ballot. (Between Ortiz and the four 10-year dropoffs, an average of 2.86 ballot slots free up next year; that feels like it has to be the most in quite a while.)

I would currently expect Rolen to get in next year, and Helton and Jones both have good chances before their 10 years are up as well.
   1174. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 26, 2022 at 02:21 AM (#6062549)
Vizquel 23.9 (-25.2)
He lost 51 votes, with no adds, among returning public voters, and nothing from the 1st-year public voters. Perhaps not surprisingly, Vizquel did much better with the private ballots (39.8%). We’ll see how many stick with him in future years now that he looks rather toasty.
   1175. TJ Posted: January 26, 2022 at 08:53 AM (#6062568)
Vizquel 23.9 (-25.2)
He lost 51 votes, with no adds, among returning public voters, and nothing from the 1st-year public voters. Perhaps not surprisingly, Vizquel did much better with the private ballots (39.8%). We’ll see how many stick with him in future years now that he looks rather toasty.


If I pontificated about the “character” clause to not vote for players facing serious PED allegations but did vote for someone facing serious allegations of sexually harassing an autistic kid, then I would want to keep my name private, too.
   1176. DanG Posted: January 26, 2022 at 10:04 AM (#6062578)
The private voters tend to be the Low Information Voters, generally unaware of the issues concerning Vizquel's character.
   1177. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 26, 2022 at 11:04 AM (#6062593)
It's not the same group year to year, but public ballots dropped Vizquel from 41% to 10% and the post announcement reviews dropped him from 50% to 33% (small sample size) and even the private votes dropped him from 69% to 39%. Many of these private votes will drift over to the post announcement review votes in the next couple of weeks, so we will have better comparables at that point.

So some of the private voters did drop him, however as a group a little less than half who had voted for him dropped him as opposed to 75% for the public voters (as it stands now).
   1178. LargeBill Posted: January 26, 2022 at 12:02 PM (#6062613)
1176. DanG Posted: January 26, 2022 at 10:04 AM (#6062578)
The private voters tend to be the Low Information Voters, generally unaware of the issues concerning Vizquel's character.


And, while I like to bust on voters, in all honesty, Vizquel's problems really have not gotten a lot of national coverage. Most of us watch the news closely and are very aware of the accusations against him, but we are the exception. Most people are less well informed. If you were busy or vacationing when the Vizquel news came out, it is quite possible to be unaware of it. I've seen almost no further coverage, until this week in Cleveland articles explaining his drop. I'm sure some voters saw his drop last year and said, "Huh?" and then googled him and said, "Oh, crap" and dropped him this year. Now with another even bigger fall off, the rest should be wondering what's going on. No one has ever had a drop off like this, so that has to catch most of their attention. I'd be amazed if he doesn't fall below 5% next year.
   1179. Karl from NY Posted: January 26, 2022 at 02:48 PM (#6062644)
It's going to be his f**king ceremony.

Well, there are the 6 veterans inductees too. Kinda funny how overlooked they're going to be as Ortiz's footnote.
   1180. reech Posted: January 26, 2022 at 04:59 PM (#6062661)
Well, of the 6 veterans inductees- only 2 are still alive, and how many Minnesota fans are pulled in for Kaat and Oliva will pale next to the contingent from Boston coming in. Hodges will get a NY push, but it's all gonna be about Big Papi!
   1181. Howie Menckel Posted: January 26, 2022 at 07:58 PM (#6062674)
"Gil Hodges for HOF" has had a cult following in the NYC area for a half-century. Sons and daughters of Brooklyn Dodgers fans are liable to represent their late or aged parents.

it won't be up there with the Boston mob, of course. but I'd expect it will be a vocal group.
   1182. alilisd Posted: January 26, 2022 at 08:23 PM (#6062676)
Gil Hodges smh
   1183. John Northey Posted: January 26, 2022 at 08:36 PM (#6062678)
There will be some for Buck O'Neil and Minnie Minoso I'm sure too. But no question that the biggest crowds will be for Ortiz and to a smaller degree Hodges.
   1184. DL from MN Posted: January 27, 2022 at 08:22 AM (#6062695)
The story about this election, despite inducting a large number of players, is the players who were passed over. In EVERY election they passed over the best players (Bill Dahlen, Dick Redding, Grant Johnson, Dick Allen) to select someone I wouldn't have even voted for. I think Minoso is the only player inducted who had my support.
   1185. The Duke Posted: January 28, 2022 at 11:34 PM (#6062968)
I have a question about how JAWS and 7 year peak WAR metrics on BBREF hall of fame statistics site.

Using Adam Wainwright I see his WAR is 44.5 and his JAWS is 40.3 and 7 year peak WAR is 36. (Jaws should be 44.5+36/2)

Now if I look at his pitching WAR it is 40.2 and batting WAR is 4.3

So far so good

I don’t see how to get to his 7 year peak WAR with the annual WAR totals he has on the site.

I see pitching years of

6.3
6.3
6.2
6.1
3.5
2.8
2.5

Which Adds to 33.7. Add batting WAR for those years of 2.7 and I get 36.4 which is slightly off the 36.0

Two questions:

1. Why is batting WAR considered in all this math comparing pitchers?
2. Is it unusual for a pitcher at the age of 41 in his decline years to still be able to Throw off seasons that add to his peak WAR total?. Wainwrights fifth best season by WAR was last year
3. How do partial years get handled in all this? 2020 has an absolute value of .6. For a whole season that’s more like 1.56. What if his partial year had led to something more like a 3.0? Does that just get ignored in peak WAR because it wasn’t a full year?



   1186. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: January 29, 2022 at 11:46 AM (#6062995)
that's 3 questions, Duke. :-)

1. it's all part of the pitcher's value.
2. i would say yes.
3. yes, almost certain it would be ignored for JAWS WAR7 calculations unless it is one of the players top 7 seasons.
   1187. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 30, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6063060)
3. How do partial years get handled in all this? 2020 has an absolute value of .6. For a whole season that’s more like 1.56. What if his partial year had led to something more like a 3.0? Does that just get ignored in peak WAR because it wasn’t a full year?

I mean, nothing says you have to take JAWS-as-published as gospel. JAWS-as-published will definitely take the base WAR total from shortened seasons, but if you want to adjust for those, you can.

As it happens, my schedule length adjustment formula applied to a 60-game season gives a multiplier of just over 2, which is convenient for mental math purposes. (It's 2.16, to be exact, so for example, Freddie Freeman's MVP season goes from 3.3 WAR to 7.1, which helps fill out his peak very nicely.)
   1188. bachslunch Posted: January 31, 2022 at 08:29 AM (#6063158)
@1184: Agreed about the tendency to elect (and nominate) less qualified candidates, via the Veterans Committee especially, but in the regular process to an extent. It’s either an intentional middle finger at more sabermetric thinking or just a big coincidence. The same thing seems to be happening with the Seniors process at the Pro Football Hall. It’s a big factor in my loss of interest in the whole process for both institutions. When the best candidates keep getting screwed, what’s the point of paying it any mind?
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