Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, December 08, 2021

Baseball Hall of Fame tracker 2022

DL from MN Posted: December 08, 2021 at 11:35 AM | 1188 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 9 of 12 pages ‹ First  < 7 8 9 10 11 >  Last ›
   801. SoSH U at work Posted: January 04, 2022 at 08:01 AM (#6059543)
Flip
   802. TomH Posted: January 04, 2022 at 08:58 AM (#6059548)
787 alilisd, I applaud courageous timelining to adjust for quality of competition, and may agree with you on Morgan over Hornsby (or Collins).

But if you're gonna timeline Ripken over Wagner, that is such a huge one, you'll have to drop every every pre-1940 from your list. Musial (or Mantle) is much closer to Ruth IMHO than Cal is to Honus.
   803. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2022 at 09:26 AM (#6059550)
It is a little silly to see an "all-time" team that doesn't have "Ruth - RF" on the list.
   804. LargeBill Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:31 AM (#6059562)
784. SoSH U at work Posted: January 03, 2022 at 05:23 PM (#6059483)

779, I believe active players were eligible at the time. At the end of 36, Grove had 7 ERA titles.



OK, but it wasn't like that first group of voters was electing active players. Hornsby got the most votes of active players, but only 46.5 percent, and lost support in the next election.


The first so many elections, there really wasn't a defined eligible or ineligible. Based on the voting it seems most voters believed they should stick to retired players. However, with no defined rules, some voted for active players. This continued for some time. I believe DiMaggio was the last active player to garner votes, but I didn't verify so could be wrong. Without set ballots it was the Wild West and there were some odd votes. Think a couple times, players already in the HOF received votes. The electorate was as perfect as it is today. With prepared ballots and internet access, today's voters have far fewer excuses for bad ballots
   805. SoSH U at work Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:35 AM (#6059565)
The first so many elections, there really wasn't a defined eligible or ineligible. Based on the voting it seems most voters believed they should stick to retired players. However, with no defined rules, some voted for active players. This continued for some time. I believe DiMaggio was the last active player to garner votes, but I didn't verify so could be wrong. Without set ballots it was the Wild West and there were some odd votes. Think a couple times, players already in the HOF received votes. The electorate was as perfect as it is today. With prepared ballots and internet access, today's voters have far fewer excuses for bad ballots


Of course, but as you say, the general feeling was to stick to retired players, an attitude which strengthened over time until eventually it was codified. But to get back to the original point, it wasn't surprising Mathewson got more votes in the first election than Grove. That should have happened. Mathewson getting more votes than the Big Train was a better example of the point he was making.
   806. alilisd Posted: January 04, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6059580)
But if you're gonna timeline Ripken over Wagner, that is such a huge one, you'll have to drop every every pre-1940 from your list. Musial (or Mantle) is much closer to Ruth IMHO than Cal is to Honus.


There are a few things I would consider, but I definitely understand why people think it's too far. Let's start with Wagner never played in the live ball era. It's a totally different game, different approach to hitting, and he didn't have to deal with the same sort of bullpen usage Ripken did, no night games, no games west of the Mississipi. Defensively I don't know, Wagner had rougher infields, smaller gloves, but also a softer hit ball in general, I'd imagine. Still, if we accept the defensive metrics, Ripken was the better fielder. Going back to live ball era, Ripken is one of just six players to have multiple double digit WAR seasons after the game was integrated, Wagner never played in an integrated league. Morgan, great as he was, only had one double digit season, Trout has two, same as Ripken, so far at least. Wagner also had two, Ruth had nine, Musial one, and Mantle three, so I think you're off there at least. There's no doubt Wagner dominated the dead ball game as much as Ruth did the early live ball era, but how does that translate to the game as we know it post integration, post expansion, and into a national game across all time zones, coast to coast?
   807. alilisd Posted: January 04, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6059581)
803. DL from MN Posted: January 04, 2022 at 09:26 AM (#6059550) It is a little silly to see an "all-time" team that doesn't have "Ruth - RF" on the list.


Not at all. As pointed out he played basically as much LF as RF, and by putting him in LF you open RF for Aaron. Now it's a little silly to see an all time team that has Ruth as pitcher/DH, but I was being a little silly and having some fun with it. Why not? :-)
   808. TomH Posted: January 04, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6059601)
caveat up front: I don't mean to be overly argumentative. It's a fun list, as you say. But...

Ripken: a super strength is his 162-game health. Which WAR captures in spades. He looks like less of a god if you use above-avg stats such as WAA.
Honus played a shorter schedule.

Cal's best WAA are 9.2 7.8 6.0 5.2 4.4 4.3 3.6 3.4

Wagner's best are 9.3 8.1 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.4 6.1 5.8

By win shares, Wagner had 421 in the 1900s decade. Ripken had 272 in his best 10-yr stretch, 82-91. That difference is... a chasm.

If you ding every non-live ball player (pre-1920), do you also need to conclude Grove over Johnson? Because Johnson did not do well after 1919. His enormous home park helped him avoid HR, but he was mediocre on the road once batters could slug. And Honus was a player who was so strong, it is likely he could have fared well when the cleaner livelier ball was used.
   809. dark Posted: January 04, 2022 at 03:27 PM (#6059624)
8 new ballots from The Athletic today.

8 votes: Rolen
7 votes: Ortiz, Wagner (+3), Helton (+3), Bonds (+1), Clemens (+1)
6 votes: Jones (+2)
5 votes: Sheffield, Schilling (-2)
4 votes: nobody
3 votes: Sosa (+1), Manny (+1), A-Rod
2 votes: Kent
1 vote: Nathan, Abreu, Pettitte
0 votes, drops: Vizquel (-2)
   810. alilisd Posted: January 04, 2022 at 03:35 PM (#6059626)
808. TomH Posted: January 04, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6059601) caveat up front: I don't mean to be overly argumentative. It's a fun list, as you say. But...


No worries! I'm not trying to go overboard either. I'm probably completely off base, but enjoying the conversation. All the points you make are very strong and well considered. Wagner was an early proponent of strength training, IIRC, and taking care of his health. I'm sure he would have done well. It's an interesting discussion. Thanks for pointing out that bit about Johnson's splits. I had not heard that before, and it was fun to go back and look at him through those later seasons.
   811. The Duke Posted: January 04, 2022 at 04:58 PM (#6059639)
Rolen is picking up 82% of new voters. That kind of improvement each year for several years will help him a lot. Helton, Jones and Wagner not doing as well.
   812. alilisd Posted: January 04, 2022 at 05:25 PM (#6059641)
811. The Duke Posted: January 04, 2022 at 04:58 PM (#6059639) Rolen is picking up 82% of new voters. That kind of improvement each year for several years will help him a lot.


Rolen is going in next year. B/C, Schilling and Sosa come off the ballot, no one super compelling is coming on, and it's likely this will be the second year in a row the writers don't elect anyone. There will be a lot more room on ballots, and there will be an urgency to elect someone by the writers. I don't see any of the other three making the jump, but I expect all of them to pick up some ground while Rolen and Ortiz go in.
   813. SoSH U at work Posted: January 04, 2022 at 05:58 PM (#6059645)
Rolen is going in next year. B/C, Schilling and Sosa come off the ballot, no one super compelling is coming on, and it's likely this will be the second year in a row the writers don't elect anyone. There will be a lot more room on ballots, and there will be an urgency to elect someone by the writers. I don't see any of the other three making the jump, but I expect all of them to pick up some ground while Rolen and Ortiz go in.


Yup, I've been saying I thought Rolen was a 2023 selection for awhile. It's possible he comes up just short next year, but I think a shutout or near-shutout (if Ortiz sneaks in) will get the writers responding the way they did to the 2013 blanking.
   814. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 04, 2022 at 06:04 PM (#6059646)
8 new ballots from The Athletic today.

The whiplashiest of those is from Rob Biertempfel, who votes for Helton (add) and Rolen, but also for both Wagner and Nathan, and only picks 5 players total (Schilling).

Bonus note: The most-dropped player who still comes out ahead in adds vs. drops so far is Andruw Jones, who is +9/-7. I'll be very curious to see how his total (and the totals of other down-ballot players) changes next year when things are thinned out.
   815. alilisd Posted: January 04, 2022 at 08:35 PM (#6059658)
The most-dropped player who still comes out ahead in adds vs. drops so far is Andruw Jones, who is +9/-7. I'll be very curious to see how his total (and the totals of other down-ballot players) changes next year when things are thinned out.


That is a strange one. Always very tough to predict voting, IMO, but I think Rolen and Ortiz next year, with Helton making more progress, Jones picking up a lot of those drops and more, and Sheffield making a good gain, then making a run in his 10th year with the Ortiz comparisons propelling him close to if not over the line in 2024. 2024 is tougher though as Beltre and Mauer will likely eat up some spots,. Will be interesting to see how Utley fairs.
   816. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 04, 2022 at 08:43 PM (#6059660)
The most-dropped player who still comes out ahead in adds vs. drops so far is Andruw Jones, who is +9/-7.


And yet people still continue to vote for relievers over instead of arguably the greatest fielding CF(and by definition the greatest OF fielder) of all time. The dude was like the love child of Paul Blair and Devon White. It was insane how good he was and yet some rando who comes in for 1 inning is garnering more support. Please make the insanity stop!
   817. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: January 04, 2022 at 09:21 PM (#6059664)
Will be interesting to see how Utley fairs.


Poorly. That's how he's going to fair. A late start, <2000 hits, no GG from a 2B. Utley was a great player, but the voters are totally going to miss it.

Please make the insanity stop!


Have you seen America lately?
   818. The Duke Posted: January 04, 2022 at 09:23 PM (#6059666)
Some guy runs simulations off of Thibs data and I think the last I saw was that Ortiz was getting in about 70% of the simulations. I think he really benefited from the early disclosure of all the yes votes. Probably emboldened people who were going to wait a year to pile on I think he will make it
   819. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:07 PM (#6059668)
Ortiz leads Bonds by a single vote at the moment, 108 (81.8%) to 107 (81.1%). Both may be benefiting from the early tabulation of PED-lenient voters, since Bonds has netted just 2 more votes among returning voters, thus far, while doing better than prior years.
   820. Jaack Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:15 PM (#6059672)
Some guy runs simulations off of Thibs data and I think the last I saw was that Ortiz was getting in about 70% of the simulations. I think he really benefited from the early disclosure of all the yes votes. Probably emboldened people who were going to wait a year to pile on I think he will make it


The most interesting thing about those sims is that in 0.1% of them Bonds gets in and Clemens doesn't. And I have to say, that is, by far, my favorite possible scenario, and I think the most fitting possible end to the HoF-PED drama.
   821. dark Posted: January 04, 2022 at 10:23 PM (#6059674)
819, Ortiz is getting a fairly significant number of non-Bonds/Clemens voters. I count him at 13 for 22 (59.1%) on ballots that didn't vote for Bonds and Clemens last year, including three Bonds/Clemens +1s. These ballots are going to support Bonds/Clemens at very low rates, obviously, but the same might not be true for Ortiz, so the PED-leniency might not be as big a factor as you'd think it would be just based on their similar raw percentages. He also got 1/2 of the first-timers who didn't vote Bonds & Clemens.
   822. SoSH U at work Posted: January 04, 2022 at 11:15 PM (#6059678)
Poorly. That's how he's going to fair. A late start, <2000 hits, no GG from a 2B. Utley was a great player, but the voters are totally going to miss it.


I think Rolen's performance gives him some hope. Many here thought he wouldn't see a second ballot, and he's getting elected in 2024 at the latest. I wouldn't necessarily predict the same thing for Utley, but I think he has no problem making the 5 percent cut his first year, and then we'll see if he starts picking up momentum the way Rolen and Helton have.

Of course, neither Rolen nor Helton ever tried to maim another opponent the way Chase did, so if the voters want to give him short shrift, that's just fine with me.

The most-dropped player who still comes out ahead in adds vs. drops so far is Andruw Jones, who is +9/-7.


Andruw losing that many votes is probably the strangest thing in this year's vote. He must be 11th for a lot of guys.
   823. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 04, 2022 at 11:28 PM (#6059680)
Andruw losing that many votes is probably the strangest thing in this year's vote. He must be 11th for a lot of guys.

My tentative prediction is that those votes plus some extras will come back to his total next year when the ballot is significantly emptier. Even if Ortiz doesn't get in, the 10th-year dropoffs will open up an average of roughly 2 spots per ballot (it would be 2.1 based on last year's totals), and the first time candidates should take up... well, less than that, given that the #2 player in career WAR among expected debuts is John Lackey. (Beltran will be an interesting one, but he's someone who I would have expected to at best make a Rolen-style climb toward induction after a few years, and that was before the Astros stuff.)
   824. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 04, 2022 at 11:39 PM (#6059681)
He must be 11th for a lot of guys.


There is no rational world where one of the 2 best fielding OF ever is losing votes to 1 inning relievers. The situation has devolved into farce.

If Andruw Jones goes the bus route at the age of 31, he's easily elected within 5 ballots.
   825. TomH Posted: January 05, 2022 at 08:22 AM (#6059696)
Back to quoting Nick Canepa, again to make a larger point:

"...in that I don't vote for druggies or designated hitters"

How odd is it that Mariano Rivera was elected UNAANIMOUSLY to the Hall... which means that 0.00% of all HoF voters decided they would not vote for relievers. And yet we have at least one and I suspect many more, who will not vote for DHs, despite.. I don't know, the fact that real runs and real wins and actual world series trophies have been generated in the last fifty years by designated hitters. Papi's 1768 RBI don't REALLY put him 23rd on the all-time list. He didn't actually hit .688 in the 2013 WS, nor did he clutch-bomb his way in Oct 2004.

You don't like the DH? Fine, have that opinion, and try your best to get it changed. But the fact is, those are the rules, jus t like the "save" is a stat whether you like it or not. So get over yourself.

Does this happen in other sports? Do NHL voters ever dismiss goalies because they don't score? in the NFL, defensive linemen because they get no yards?
   826. alilisd Posted: January 05, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6059708)
Poorly. That's how he's going to fair.


Seems like a reasonable assessment.
   827. alilisd Posted: January 05, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6059709)
I think Rolen's performance gives him some hope. Many here thought he wouldn't see a second ballot, and he's getting elected in 2024 at the latest. I wouldn't necessarily predict the same thing for Utley, but I think he has no problem making the 5 percent cut his first year, and then we'll see if he starts picking up momentum the way Rolen and Helton have.


I think he'll stay on the ballot, but it may be a tougher haul for him to pick up any strong support, say above what Kent has received, for example. With Rolen you have all those GG to support his defensive rep, Utley has none. Are enough voters going to believe the defensive numbers in his WAR without the tangible, but admittedly subjective, GGs to go with them?
   828. DL from MN Posted: January 05, 2022 at 11:12 AM (#6059711)
Am I wrong or do all the players who fall off the ballot end up on the Era Committee vote in 2023? We could see Bonds and Clemens inducted summer of 2023.
   829. Lassus Posted: January 05, 2022 at 11:42 AM (#6059715)
Andruw Jones eventually entering is not an issue for me.

Andruw Jones eventually entering before Keith Hernandez is an issue for me.
   830. cookiedabookie Posted: January 05, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6059717)
Am I wrong or do all the players who fall off the ballot end up on the Era Committee vote in 2023? We could see Bonds and Clemens inducted summer of 2023.

They will be eligible for the committee, and I hope they get in tbh. That should speed up the process for A-Rod, unless the writers refuse to budge in spite of players getting in after they blocked them for ten years
   831. Booey Posted: January 05, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6059719)
I don't think Rolen's success says much about Utley's chances. I was wrong about Rolen, of course, but I think where I went wrong was the impact his gold gloves would have on the writers. With 8 gold gloves, I think he's being seen as one of the best fielding 3B ever...who could also hit. Andruw and Vizquel are/were also benefitting from a similar perception. Jones was one of the best CF's ever (10 GG)...who also hit 434 homers. Omar was one of the best defensive SS ever (11 GG)...who also had 2877 hits. These guys are specialists who also added something else.

With zero gold gloves though, Utley isn't going to be seen as an all time great defensive 2B - DWAR be damned - and his hitting numbers are lower than Rolen's across the board (including falling short of some basic milestones that Rolen has like 2000 hits and 300 homers). As an all around player without the "specialist + ____" angle, I suspect Bobby Abreu's level of support is more likely for Utley (and that's before taking into consideration the dirty slide).

Edit: Best case scenario for Utley is if he can get all the peak voters on his side. He had a 5 year span (2005-2009) where he was clearly one of the best players in baseball, even if MVP voting didn't give him as much recognition for it as he deserved. That's a claim that most the great all around players who are mostly ignored by the writers (Abreu, Dwight Evans, Whitaker, Grich, etc) can't make.
   832. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2022 at 01:57 PM (#6059729)
They will be eligible for the committee, and I hope they get in tbh. That should speed up the process for A-Rod, unless the writers refuse to budge in spite of players getting in after they blocked them for ten years


Even if Bonds and Clemens are elected by the Vets, which strikes me as pretty unlikely until the committee is filled with more of their peers, I don't think it necessarily says much about Arod's chances. I think the fact he was suspended post-testing is going to keep him on the outside far longer than those pre-testing juicers. I find it highly unlikely the BBWAA elects him.

I don't think Rolen's success says much about Utley's chances.


I think in the past we'd be looking at Utley not sticking around for a second ballot. Rolen's success (and some others) at avoiding that fate makes it more likely Utley doesn't get Loftoned.

And none of us saw Rolen's eventual election when he hit the ballot. Our back-and-forth sure as hell wasn't about whether he would get in during the 2023 election or have to wait until 2024.
   833. The Duke Posted: January 05, 2022 at 02:34 PM (#6059740)
McGwire got less than 5 votes his first time and then was dropped altogether from consideration. I’m guessing that Bonds and Clemens will be given a cooling off period before getting on ballot. They will get a few votes and then fall off for a long time.
   834. alilisd Posted: January 05, 2022 at 03:04 PM (#6059750)
I don't think it necessarily says much about Arod's chances. I think the fact he was suspended post-testing is going to keep him on the outside far longer than those pre-testing juicers. I find it highly unlikely the BBWAA elects him.


Yeah, A-Rod is not going in by the writers unless there's massive turnover during the next nine years, and that still might not be enough. He's only at 64% with the 11 new voters.
   835. Karl from NY Posted: January 05, 2022 at 03:32 PM (#6059758)
And then of course there's Rob Parker with Bonds/Clemens/Sheffield/Sosa; apparently he has very specific minimum AND maximum standards for the amount of steroid use required by a Hall of Famer.

This is pretty defensible, right? A-rod and Manny actually got convicted of something with consequences, Bonds/Clemens/Sheffield/Sosa never did. Sosa's only proven transgression was the corked bat. (I wonder if some might be confusing that suspension with steroids, or tarring him with the same brush.) He was reportedly on the Mitchell list, but so was basically everyone else in the league.
   836. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 05, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6059760)
Best case scenario for Utley is if he can get all the peak voters on his side. He had a 5 year span (2005-2009) where he was clearly one of the best players in baseball, even if MVP voting didn't give him as much recognition for it as he deserved. That's a claim that most the great all around players who are mostly ignored by the writers (Abreu, Dwight Evans, Whitaker, Grich, etc) can't make.


I think Utley will have a decent shot of getting in after a few years. He has that sustained run you point out where, even if he didn't get close to winning the MVP, was getting MVP votes and had a legit claim to being one of the best players in baseball, not just his position. He averaged 7.6 bWAR from 2005-2010. Even if you discount the possibly inflated defensive numbers by half (he averaged +20 runs a year), that still puts his peak comfortably in HOF territory.

That run was of course during the Phillies' peak and I think he could get a boost as being the only legit candidate from that WS winner. It's certainly no guarantee but virtually all WS champs do get someone in. This is definitely not a sabermetric case but to me it feels like someone "should" get in from a team that won consecutive pennants and one ring.

Of course, neither Rolen nor Helton ever tried to maim another opponent the way Chase did, so if the voters want to give him short shrift, that's just fine with me.


Yeah, I wonder if this holds him back at all. I suspect it will be largely forgotten by the writers (or maybe even championed by some) seeing as it came late in his career, but who knows.



   837. LargeBill Posted: January 05, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6059764)
829. Lassus Posted: January 05, 2022 at 11:42 AM (#6059715)
Andruw Jones eventually entering is not an issue for me.

Andruw Jones eventually entering before Keith Hernandez is an issue for me.


Why? Seriously, why? This is analogous to being upset that a present day shortstop (Rollins) gets more votes than a power hitting corner outfielder from the past (Colavito). Jones and Hernandez are not in competition for the Hall of Fame in any way whatsoever. One is a center fielder with more than 400 homers who is currently on the ballot. The other is a first baseman (normally a power hitting position) who hit 162 homers (coincidentally the number of home runs Ruth had when Betty White was born) and fell off the ballot 18 years ago. Both were extremely well regarded defensively. Hernandez was on the ballot for quite a while and never gained any momentum. Jones is on his 5th ballot and is steadily gaining support. I'm not campaigning for either, but won't get worked up if/when Jones makes it.
   838. Howie Menckel Posted: January 05, 2022 at 03:56 PM (#6059765)
AndrJones had a 111 OPS+ in 8664 PA.
Hernandez had a 128 OPS+ in 8553 PA.

Keith had 249 more hits, in spite of having 111 fewer career PA.

obviously CF is a significantly more valuable defensive position, but surely you don't think Jones was a better hitter - or do you?
   839. The Duke Posted: January 05, 2022 at 04:10 PM (#6059770)
Betty White ends up being a tragic victim of the sports illustrated cover story curse. She was supposed to live forever. We get People magazine and I turned to my wife and said “why would they publish this before her 100th birthday?”
   840. jingoist Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:02 PM (#6059787)
Betty White: the Connie Mac of television.
   841. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:24 PM (#6059799)
Of course, neither Rolen nor Helton ever tried to maim another opponent the way Chase did, so if the voters want to give him short shrift, that's just fine with me.


Chase Utley's slide wasn't a rare thing at the time it happened. I remember Mark Ellis missed some time after getting injured on a similar slide before that. It was just extra notable because it happened in a playoff game and because Tejada suffered a serious injury. So it ultimately led to a rules change.
   842. The Duke Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6059801)
Joe Medwick thought it was a great slide !

The anecdote I love best about the medwick ejection after fans rained rotten fruit down on him was him asking a reporter in all earnestness “who brings rotten fruit to a ballgame” or something to that effect
   843. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:36 PM (#6059803)
David Lennon with SEVEN adds on his ballot - he went from Bonds/Clemens only to a full 10 (including Ortiz). Adds Helton/Jones/Rolen/Schilling/Sheffield/Sosa/Wagner.
   844. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:37 PM (#6059804)
The anecdote I love best about the medwick ejection after fans rained rotten fruit down on him was him asking a reporter in all earnestness “who brings rotten fruit to a ballgame” or something to that effect
No way that actually happened.
   845. The Duke Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:42 PM (#6059806)
When do the espn and mlb writers usually release their ballots? Are we due for anymore big ballot dumps before announcement ?
   846. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2022 at 05:54 PM (#6059807)
Chase Utley's slide wasn't a rare thing at the time it happened. I


That particular slide was pretty rare at the time it happened. It wasn't rare when Hal McRae was playing.
   847. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 05, 2022 at 07:16 PM (#6059818)
I don't think Utley will not garner more then 40% of the vote whilst he's on the ballot.
The peak is very, very good, but not historically great to overcome the complete lack of solid counting stats and the relatively small PA(7800+). It's a shortish career and you need an historic peak to overcome that.
The other issue is that much of his value is based on defense, yet he doesn't have the GG(rightly or wrongly) to support it.

Unlike a Blyleven(with 3000K's and other incredible stats) or Rolen (with his 8 GG (rightly or wrongly deserved) and otherwise really solid counting numbers) there is no hook there to draw in votes from voters other then the dedicated SABR minded voter.

Also, Lou Whitaker deserves a spot before any other 2B, but I suppose that's another issue alltogher.
   848. alilisd Posted: January 05, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6059832)
That run was of course during the Phillies' peak and I think he could get a boost as being the only legit candidate from that WS winner.


Jimmy Rollins says hello. Also, I've heard numerous writers cannot wait to be able to vote for Brad Lidge!
   849. alilisd Posted: January 05, 2022 at 08:39 PM (#6059836)
847. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 05, 2022 at 07:16 PM (#6059818) I don't think Utley will not garner more then 40% of the vote whilst he's on the ballot. The peak is very, very good, but not historically great to overcome the complete lack of solid counting stats and the relatively small PA(7800+). It's a shortish career and you need an historic peak to overcome that.


I think this sounds about right. Kent can't even drum up that kind of support, but he's been on very different ballots than what Utley will face. Still, I don't think he will get a great deal more than Kent has.
   850. John Northey Posted: January 05, 2022 at 11:47 PM (#6059866)
Huh. Chase Utley I didn't think of as a HOF'er but looking closer he is deserving. 2005-2009 he had 7+ bWAR every season. That is a heck of a 6 year run. Sadly, despite even getting up to a 9 for 2008 he never finished higher than 7th in MVP voting. Sadly his poor tail end will hurt him big time - 5 years of sub 1.5 WAR seasons to finish never helps (last memories voters have - hurt Tim Raines I'm sure) - only helps if you crack magic numbers but he is sub 2000 hits by a lot (1885), 259 HR's, 1025 RBI's, 154 SB, 275 average - none of that will impress voters who are glancing over a resume. His only black ink is runs scored once, hit by pitch 3 times. 6 All-Star games is 'meh' (others were in more and didn't pass a single ballot), despite strong defense he never won a gold glove (big negative to voters). Only 5 seasons with 140+ games - low game totals indicates durability issues which voters hate (I know some used it against Larry Walker). His 64 bWAR will get him votes, probably even enough to stick around for more than 1 ballot given the number of voters now who understand there is more than traditional stats to the game. But I can't see him getting in. Especially when Lou Whittaker (much stronger case) couldn't get to a second ballot, and is fighting to even get serious consideration from the vets committee.
   851. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:32 AM (#6059871)
Especially when Lou Whittaker (much stronger case) couldn't get to a second ballot, and is fighting to even get serious consideration from the vets committee.


If Lou Whitaker had the same career end in 2015, instead of 1995, he would have gotten in through the writers.

I don't expect Utley to make a run, but I wouldn't rule it out.
   852. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 08:45 AM (#6059882)
Why? Seriously, why? This is analogous to being upset that a present day shortstop (Rollins) gets more votes than a power hitting corner outfielder from the past (Colavito). Jones and Hernandez are not in competition for the Hall of Fame in any way whatsoever. One is a center fielder with more than 400 homers who is currently on the ballot. The other is a first baseman (normally a power hitting position) who hit 162 homers (coincidentally the number of home runs Ruth had when Betty White was born) and fell off the ballot 18 years ago. Both were extremely well regarded defensively. Hernandez was on the ballot for quite a while and never gained any momentum. Jones is on his 5th ballot and is steadily gaining support. I'm not campaigning for either, but won't get worked up if/when Jones makes it.

They are comparable for their induction being dependent upon their defensive value and reputation. I am not a defensive SABR specialist, but groundbreaking defense at 1B strikes me as more valuable than groundbreaking defense at CF. (Their offensive numbers were addressed above.)
   853. jmurph Posted: January 06, 2022 at 10:13 AM (#6059895)
but groundbreaking defense at 1B strikes me as more valuable than groundbreaking defense at CF

I think we need to request an explanation of this, which reads to me as obviously wrong.
   854. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 06, 2022 at 10:16 AM (#6059896)
I think we need to request an explanation of this, which reads to me as obviously wrong.


I was just going to say something similar, I would consider a great CF as much more valuable than a great 1B - with a large caveat that the 1B hasn't found some new-fangled way to catch balls thrown to them.
   855. SandyRiver Posted: January 06, 2022 at 10:28 AM (#6059898)
Because Johnson did not do well after 1919. His enormous home park helped him avoid HR, but he was mediocre on the road once batters could slug.

Interesting points. However, 1920 was his age 32 season and he'd already logged 4,000+ IP, so a decline should not be a surprise. For 1920-26 he had 32.5 WAR, or 4.6/yr. That's a very good pitcher though nothing like all his 10+ WAR seasons earlier. What a 24 y.o. Johnson would've done in the lively ball era is only conjecture.
   856. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 06, 2022 at 10:40 AM (#6059900)
If Lou Whitaker had the same career end in 2015, instead of 1995, he would have gotten in through the writers.


Agree. The changing electorate is a big reason why I give Utley at least a fighting chance. Whitaker and Utley are both deserving but they're a couple of decades apart and very different candidates. Utley's peak is up there with any 2B since Joe Morgan.

There is also a generational representative factor going for Utley. He's a step above the other 2Bs from the 2000s except for Cano, who I think will get held in PEDS purgatory. Altuve comes later and will be similarly punished. Kent and Pedroia are close but Utley beats them pretty easily on peak, with a WAR7 of 49 versus 41 for Pedroia and 36 for Kent. Ian Kinsler is a tick above Kent, which I did not expect.

Whitaker on the other hand overlapped with Morgan and Sandberg (not to mention Grich, who is at least as deserving). Plus wasn't Whitaker seen as kind of an airhead in his day? Or is that all based on the time when he forgot to bring his jersey to the All Star Game?
   857. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2022 at 10:46 AM (#6059901)
Whitaker seen as kind of an airhead in his day?


I don't think so. He was pretty private (perhaps owing to his Jehovah's Witness faith), but that forgotten jersey seemed to be a one-off event.
   858. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6059903)
I'm going to guess Whitaker gets in through the Era Committee before Utley does by the writers.
   859. TJ Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:05 AM (#6059906)
Whitaker seen as kind of an airhead in his day?


I don't think so. He was pretty private (perhaps owing to his Jehovah's Witness faith), but that forgotten jersey seemed to be a one-off event.


Having watched Whitaker's entire career, I wouldn't call him an "airhead" (All Star game jersey thing notwithstanding). He was just really quiet and painfully shy (but always nice to fans, so he was never seen as rude or anything). I think what hurt Whitaker more than anything in the eyes of the voters was that he made everything look so easy it appeared that he wasn't giving it his all. There was a feeling that he could have been so much better in the eyes of those who don't know how hard it is to make playing baseball look easy. (I know there were some Detroit writers who felt that way), In truth, Whitaker was just as much a hustling, hard-working player as teammate Kirk Gibson but Lou didn't look like he was playing with his hair on fire...
   860. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:20 AM (#6059910)
855. SandyRiver Posted: January 06, 2022 at 10:28 AM (#6059898)

Because Johnson did not do well after 1919. His enormous home park helped him avoid HR, but he was mediocre on the road once batters could slug.


Interesting points. However, 1920 was his age 32 season and he'd already logged 4,000+ IP, so a decline should not be a surprise.


I agree some of the difference is simply age related decline. (And injury, too? Does anyone know what happened to him in 1920? He only had 15 starts and 143.2 IP.) Some of it is also innings related. A bit of cherry picking, but I limited it to four year peak from 1912-1915 when he averaged 356 IP, whereas "peak" live ball seasons were 1922-1925 at "just" 262 IP, or 74% of his actual peak IP seasons. Again, difficult to say how much of this is age related and how much would be due to change in conditions though.

What I found most interesting, although I didn't look at it super closely, was the splits for Left/Right more so than the Home/Road, which certainly existed in the years I looked at. The difference between left handed batters and right handed was even more shocking. Makes sense though as I've heard him described as a bit of a sidearmer, or a guy who would drop down to that arm slot with some frequency. Combine that with how hard he threw and it would be brutal on a right handed hitter. Perhaps a little like how Randy Johnson was on lefties, though not as extreme given the latter Johnson's unusual height.

Not to the point of any argument about his relative worth or ranking, just in appreciation of his career, he was still damn good from 1920-1926! Led the league in K's three more times and had the dominant 1924 season. Minimum 1,000 IP in those years has him second to Dazzy Vance in K's albeit in about 450 more IP, still tied for third in K% though. In a group of 7 guys from 120-124 for ERA+, just behind a group of 4 guys from 127-130, and then Bullet Rogan way out in front at 167. Good enough for 10th in FIP, 9th in WAA, and in a group of 3 guys basically tied for 6th in WAR. He was 13th in IP. Not a bad decline!
   861. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:24 AM (#6059913)
858. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6059903) I'm going to guess Whitaker gets in through the Era Committee before Utley does by the writers.


I sure hope so! Nothing in particular against Utley, but Lou Whitaker is way overdue!
   862. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6059921)
I think we need to request an explanation of this, which reads to me as obviously wrong.

I was just going to say something similar, I would consider a great CF as much more valuable than a great 1B - with a large caveat that the 1B hasn't found some new-fangled way to catch balls thrown to them.

Well, I don't doubt I'll get destroyed for this, but the % of plays per 9 innings where a ball is handled at 1B seems far higher than the percentage of plays where a ball is handled at CF. Why would it not follow that exceptional, groundbreaking defense would be more valuable at 1B? To be fair, I'm probably wrong and stupid, so.

Personally, I see Hernandez as Jones' equal (at least) in fielding at their respective positions. With Hernandez being more valuable offensively I would find his exclusion and Jones' inclusion annoying. Perhaps I'm not being objective.
   863. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:52 AM (#6059922)
Utley's peak is up there with any 2B since Joe Morgan.


But, just like with Andruw, the peak depends on an historically high defensive performance, representing a large proportion of his argument. If such can truly be trusted, and his case firmly built upon that.

Pedroia has 83 BBRef fielding runs; Utley has 129 (both consecutive 7 year peaks). Is he really 46 runs better than one of the most acclaimed defensive 2B of the past quarter century? Take away those extra 46, and is he still deserving? On Fangraphs it's 87 vs. 101 (oddly, Fg doesn't like Dustin's offense, 114 vs. 134 [baserunning/DP included]; for Chase it's 257 vs. 242). Will that figure impress and convince enough voters?
   864. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:54 AM (#6059923)
Well, I don't doubt I'll get destroyed for this, but the % of plays per 9 innings where a ball is handled at 1B seems far higher than the percentage of plays where a ball is handled at CF. Why would it not follow that exceptional, groundbreaking defense would be more valuable at 1B? To be fair, I'm probably wrong and stupid, so.


Nobody ever got me a link as to the percentage/number of ground balls thru the 1B zones vs. the equivalent 3B zones.
   865. BDC Posted: January 06, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6059925)
Why would it not follow that exceptional, groundbreaking defense would be more valuable at 1B?

The usual argument would be that there just isn't a great range of performances possible at 1B. The seventy-four best Total Zone Runs seasons by CF (the list starts in 1953) are better than all but one of the best seasons at 1B. Hernandez's best season (+16, T9 among 1B) would be tied for 113th among center fielders.

(EDIT: I guess I mean practically possible. If you put me at first base I would have at best -799 Total Zone Runs each year, but luckily there aren't any real 1B like that :)
   866. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:00 PM (#6059927)
More to dock me for: I've always found defensive advanced SABR stats pretty bonkers.

Even more: It also falls a lot on a "Christ, just watch him!" standard.
   867. BDC Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:15 PM (#6059929)
It also falls a lot on a "Christ, just watch him!" standard

But one can make my argument the same way. One very rarely sees a first baseman who just can't catch the ball. But I have seen Pete Incaviglia play center field.
   868. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:18 PM (#6059930)
One very rarely sees a first baseman who just can't catch the ball.

-shrug- I just think there's a lot more involved in playing 1B than in playing CF.
   869. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:42 PM (#6059934)
In truth, Whitaker was just as much a hustling, hard-working player as teammate Kirk Gibson but Lou didn't look like he was playing with his hair on fire...


I wouldn't be surprised if Whitaker was also a bit guilty of being great while black. Maybe not, as Trammell also received short shrift from the HOF voters, but at least he stayed on the ballot for the full 15. He also was a guy who suffered from being well rounded, but not standing out in any one area thus masking his greatness to some extent. From a traditional stats perspective, which he would have been evaluated on by contemporary voters, his peak BA was very good at .294 from 1982 to 1985, but it wasn't great, and prime from 1978 to 1987 was just .279. His grey ink is really low and black ink basically nonexistent. Without baserunning, DP avoidance, and defensive metrics to quantify his contributions as WAR does, you're left with a guy who was a pretty good hitter for a 2B, but didn't steal a lot of bases and wasn't considered a great defender by GG recognition. Whether it was shyness or prejudice or simply being a more subtly great player in terms of his all around skill set he was overlooked by the writers.

He has a quirky WAR record, too. I remember a HOF discussion about him where Voros, I'm pretty sure I remember that correctly, was saying he wouldn't necessarily support him because of lack of peak, or at least he rated him further down than many of the others in the discussion. And when you look at B-R numbers for WAR, if you take them strictly at face value without considering the margin of error, he doesn't have a lot of HOF-like seasons. I use their level of 5 as an All Star caliber season as equivalent to a HOF caliber season, and Whitaker has only 4 such seasons, but he has 5 others of at least 4.3, so seems reasonable there could be a couple more seasons in there which are a bit better than they appear (although they could go the other way, too).

But what I thought was interesting in looking at his WAR record was how odd it was in terms of offense and defense not matching up. That's why he ends up with all of those 4 seasons instead of 5 or better. He has 6 seasons with double digit Rfield, but only 1 of them matches up with a season when he had double digit Rbat even though he has 10 seasons of double digit Rbat! An interesting quirk I've never noticed before. Not saying it's inaccurate, just odd. If he had a couple of more seasons where he matched up better hitting with better fielding metrics, his WAR would look much better. The 1981 strike also hurt him as that would have been another 5+ season. The 1985-1986 seasons sum it up nicely: 1985 18 Rbat with -3 Rfield and 4.5 WAR, 1986 6 Rbat with 10 Rfield and 4.4 WAR.
   870. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:48 PM (#6059935)
I wouldn't be surprised if Whitaker was also a bit guilty of being great while black.


It can never be counted out, but it seems as if Whitaker is mostly guilty of being Bobby Grich.
   871. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6059939)
But, just like with Andruw, the peak depends on an historically high defensive performance, representing a large proportion of his argument. If such can truly be trusted, and his case firmly built upon that.


It's not quite that extreme, but I do think evaluation/trust of his defensive metrics will make or break his case. Andruw is different in that he is 49 runs better than the greatest CF of all time, Willie Mays. Utley, in the live ball era, is behind several other 2B, and sandwiched in between two guys who are only slightly different in career runs, Mark Ellis and Hughie Critz, both of whom had far less playing time. Defense is a big part of his peak, but if you just look at oWAR for his peak 2005-2010 he still averages 5.6 with all of his fielding runs stripped out.

Someone mentioned up thread his dearth of playing time/PA's. The electorate is changing so they may be more open to taking his WAR peak as worthy, but I think there may still be enough voters who will look at the low PA's and absence of counting stats and pass him by. There was a new voter this year who hand waved Rolen away with an "only 2077 hits" remark. Utley has a HOF peak and prime all rolled into 10 straight seasons, and hardly anything outside of those 10 seasons. That's historically been a tough nut to crack with HOF voters who look for a LOT more bulk to a career.
   872. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6059941)
It can never be counted out, but it seems as if Whitaker is mostly guilty of being Bobby Grich.


Thanks, I did lol out this :-)
   873. Howie Menckel Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:18 PM (#6059943)
Whitaker also was brutal against lefties - .657 career OPS with a bonus of being 26 for 47 trying to steal on them.

tOPS of 112 vs RHP, 67 vs LHP.

not a lot of HOFers with that split, I suspect.

now, he hit a stellar-for-a-2B .838 OPS vs RHP and has a lot going for him, but he only had one 600 PA season past age 30 for a reason. and writers of the era likely saw him as a bit one-dimensional. a 133 OPS+ in 1993 loses a little luster when you see he had only 62 PA vs lefties (with 5 singles and a double as his only hits).

(fwiw, Grich tOPS was 97 vs RHP and 107 vs LHP. his issue was he got hurt a lot, not that he couldn't hit certain pitchers).
   874. Booey Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:24 PM (#6059944)
Whitaker (and Grich's) problems are mostly that their stats just don't look very HOF-ey. They're good at everything, but they don't really stand out at anything. I'd vote for both of them, but honestly I don't even know what I'd write on their HOF plaques. There just aren't any numbers on their resumes (other than WAR) that really pop.

Compare Whitaker to Sandberg, for example. Lou had 5 All Star appearances (10 for Ryno) and 3 gold gloves (vs 9). Whitaker's only top 10 MVP finish was 8th place in 1983 (Sandberg won an MVP and had 2 other top 5 finishes). The only time Lou led the league in anything was games played in a strike year (Ryno led in runs 3 times, and once a piece in homers, triples, and total bases). Lou only had one qualifying .300 season (5 for Sandberg), and his career batting avg was .276 (vs .285). Whitaker had 143 SB (Ryno had 344) and 244 HR (Sandberg's 282 was a positional record at the time, he had a league leading 40 in 1990, and he has 6 of the top 7 seasons between the two). It's not hard to see why voters preferred Ryno.

Ditto with Grich; .266 avg, 1833 hits, 224 HR (topped 20 only twice), 864 rbi, 104 SB. Only top 10 MVP finishes were an 8th and a 9th place finish. 6 all star selections and 4 gold gloves are nice, but nothing special. Compare that to Alomar; 12 AS selections, 10 GG, 5 top 6 MVP finishes, 2724 hits, 474 SB, and a career .300 avg (with 5 seasons over .320). Or Biggio, with 3060 hits, 1844 runs (led league twice), 668 2B (led league 3 times), 414 SB (led league once), and the modern day HBP record.

None of the writers selections - or lack thereof - are surprising for any of these guys. They don't operate solely on the "cuz WAR says so" method of ranking players the way so many here do.
   875. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:29 PM (#6059947)
868. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 12:18 PM (#6059930) One very rarely sees a first baseman who just can't catch the ball.


-shrug- I just think there's a lot more involved in playing 1B than in playing CF.


Sort of, but it's not just about what is going on, it's also about how difficult it is to do what is required. You could say all a CF has to do is run to catch the ball, and in certain situations throw to a base after the catch. A 1B has to hold on runners, field groundballs and in certain situations throw to a base after fielding, and catch the balls thrown to 1B by other fielders. So from that perspective, yes, a lot more involved in playing 1B. But how difficult is it relative to CF, or how difficult is it to find someone who can do what's required at 1B adequately versus how difficult it is to find someone adequate in CF? As mentioned simply catching the throws at 1B is not difficult at all, nor is holding a runner. Throwing to other bases does require accuracy, but it doesn't require the arms strength of CF, and it's often a simple flip to a pitcher covering 1B not a throw. Fielding ground balls at 1B is the least demanding infield position while catching flyballs in CF is the most demanding OF position due to the range requirements. To me the athleticism required to play CF far exceeds the requirements of 1B, which is not to say Hernandez wasn't athletic. He absolutely was, which is why he was so great! This is entirely speculative of course, but could Hernandez have played an adequate, average CF? Could Jones have played and adequate, average 1B? I tend to think the latter is possible, but the former unlikely although I'm sure you know Hernandez's capabilities much better than I so I may be wrong.
   876. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:39 PM (#6059948)
874. Booey Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:24 PM (#6059944)
Whitaker (and Grich's) problems are mostly that their stats just don't look very HOF-ey. They're good at everything, but they don't really stand out at anything. I'd vote for both of them, but honestly I don't even know what I'd write on their HOF plaques. There just aren't any numbers on their resumes (other than WAR) that really pop.


That's a really good summary. And Utley fits right into that class as well.
   877. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6059949)
[875], That's a great and thoughtful response, so thank you.

As far as switching them, I mean, who knows. With Keith's smoking? Who knows indeed.

My point is less to say that OMG Andruw is less deserving than Keith and more to say that I have a hard time seeing how Andruw is somehow deserving and Keith is not, or less deserving. I think their cases are incredibly similar as far as defensive reliance for entry. And OF COURSE I'm biased. Part of that bias is I see that Andruw could do everything that every other CF had every done, only better; Keith also achieved this; but also seemed to do things no 1B had EVER done while fielding. It's not a shrieking fight, again, but it annoys me that Andruw is getting the arguments for admittance that Keith also deserves but is getting a lot less of. (Of course, they aren't being voted on at the same time or by the same people, so there's that as well.)

   878. Howie Menckel Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6059951)
They're good at everything, but they don't really stand out at anything.

as I noted above, Whitaker most emphatically was NOT good at everything. he was terrible against LHP - to the point, eventually, of being basically unplayable against them.

and I'm not a Whitaker-for-HOF hater, but we might as well have the pros and cons laid out there.
   879. Booey Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:49 PM (#6059952)
#876 - Utley's career numbers fall into that group (I'm not sure what I'd write on his HOF plaque either), but he's a bit different in that he had a clear peak as a perennial MVP caliber player. Whitaker didn't really have a dominant peak; just a very consistent and lengthy prime.
   880. SoSH U at work Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:51 PM (#6059953)
I think Hernandez pushed the existing boundaries of the way first could be played, which is a little of what Lassus is referring to. We never saw first basemen making the kinds of aggressive plays he did, and really haven't since.

Jones didn't revolutionize playing center. He just, arguably, did it more effectively than anyone before him.

But, as others have noted, even with Hernandez's groundbreaking style, he wasn't providing more defensive value than Jones did.
   881. Booey Posted: January 06, 2022 at 02:11 PM (#6059956)
I see Utley as more of a peak candidate, comparable to Helton or Edmonds. All 3 of these guys were amongst the best players in baseball for a 5 year span (2005-2009 for Utley, 2000-2004 for Helton and Edmonds), with a few other pretty good seasons sprinkled throughout their careers.

Whitaker is a career candidate, similar to Palmeiro, Winfield, Molitor, and Beltran. These guys never had a multi season stretch of greatness where they ranked amongst MLB's top superstars; they just continued being very good for an uncommonly long time.
   882. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6059959)
Unsurprisingly, SoSH states my position far better than I attempted to. (Even if I'm not compelled as much by the advanced stat judgment of relative defensive value.)
   883. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 02:26 PM (#6059962)
But what I thought was interesting in looking at his WAR record was how odd it was in terms of offense and defense not matching up. That's why he ends up with all of those 4 seasons instead of 5 or better. He has 6 seasons with double digit Rfield, but only 1 of them matches up with a season when he had double digit Rbat even though he has 10 seasons of double digit Rbat! An interesting quirk I've never noticed before. Not saying it's inaccurate, just odd. If he had a couple of more seasons where he matched up better hitting with better fielding metrics, his WAR would look much better.


The issue is that people seem to take season-to-season fluctuations in defensive stats as indicative of something meaningful when it is quite likely they are just chasing noise. I mean, I am sure defense can undergo its own form of slumps and hot streaks, but you'd think since there is more pure athleticism involved (vs. batting where timing, ball recognition, and technique are everything) that defensive performances would be much more consistent from year to year.

You are thus likely much better off averaging over a 3 or even 5 year period when evaluating defense.
   884. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 02:43 PM (#6059967)
877. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:40 PM (#6059949)
[875], That's a great and thoughtful response, so thank you.

As far as switching them, I mean, who knows. With Keith's smoking? Who knows indeed.

My point is less to say that OMG Andruw is less deserving than Keith and more to say that I have a hard time seeing how Andruw is somehow deserving and Keith is not, or less deserving. I think their cases are incredibly similar as far as defensive reliance for entry. And OF COURSE I'm biased. Part of that bias is I see that Andruw could do everything that every other CF had every done, only better; Keith also achieved this; but also seemed to do things no 1B had EVER done while fielding.


You're very welcome. And your point about Keith doing things no 1B had ever done was what I thought you meant when you were saying groundbreaking. He's unique at the position, at least in modern times, for sure. That usually counts towards the HOF. I do think he's an oversight, and I hope he will be given his due before it's too late for him to enjoy it!
   885. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6059970)
879. Booey Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:49 PM (#6059952) #876 - Utley's career numbers fall into that group (I'm not sure what I'd write on his HOF plaque either), but he's a bit different in that he had a clear peak as a perennial MVP caliber player.


Not by the criteria you laid out, only by WAR. He hit 30 HR twice and drove in 100 several times, but that translated into 1 top 10 finish in each category, also only 1 top 10 in BA. By conventional stats he doesn't look great on either a seasonal basis ore career basis. Black and grey ink are very low. Yes, he got more MVP love than Whitaker, but only marginally more than Grich, and it was always down ballot.
   886. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 03:03 PM (#6059975)
878. Howie Menckel Posted: January 06, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6059951)

They're good at everything, but they don't really stand out at anything.


as I noted above, Whitaker most emphatically was NOT good at everything. he was terrible against LHP - to the point, eventually, of being basically unplayable against them.

and I'm not a Whitaker-for-HOF hater, but we might as well have the pros and cons laid out there.


But that's a mighty fine nit to pick when someone is saying he's good at everything. Good fielder? Check. Good baserunner? Check. Good hitter? Yes, even if he wasn't a good hitter against LH pitching, he outweighed that by crushing RH. He was generally solidly above average by OPS+ even before he was heavily platooned. So, yeah, he was good at everything on the whole.
   887. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2022 at 03:07 PM (#6059976)
I do think he's an oversight, and I hope he will be given his due before it's too late for him to enjoy it!

I'm pretty sure Keith himself doesn't really feel like he's in the HOF's class, or he's been notably, gruffly humble and self-effacing a couple of times it's come up in broadcast.
   888. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 03:08 PM (#6059978)
The issue is that people seem to take season-to-season fluctuations in defensive stats as indicative of something meaningful when it is quite likely they are just chasing noise.


I think this is a good point, and I will occasionally do something like this when evaluating a player if I notice some wild swings in defensive numbers. I believe those more knowledgeable than myself have noted that with fewer chances it's better take at least two seasons worth of numbers, as you noted in your comment as well.
   889. Kd911 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6059986)
How do you guys foresee how Carlos Beltran does when he debuts on the ballot next year given the scandal? Does he at least get 50% or above? How about K-Rod? How do you think he fares? Shouldn't guys like K-rod and joe nathan convince voters that someone like Wagner should not be in the hall of fame given how few innings they pitch. Excluding Mariano Rivera you have to be super special as a reliever to get in the hof.
   890. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 06, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6060005)
I think this is a good point, and I will occasionally do something like this when evaluating a player if I notice some wild swings in defensive numbers. I believe those more knowledgeable than myself have noted that with fewer chances it's better take at least two seasons worth of numbers, as you noted in your comment as well.


Players have wild swings in offensive numbers sometimes too. Players definitely have defensive slumps.
   891. Howie Menckel Posted: January 06, 2022 at 04:43 PM (#6060007)
But that's a mighty fine nit to pick when someone is saying he's good at everything.

is it, though?

"yeah, our kid Lou at 2B - he's really good. your team is gonna have a challenge trying to get him out."
"we're pitching a lefty tonight."
"oh, crap, never mind."

late in the game, big spot, Lou's due up - wait, not anymore he isn't...
   892. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 04:47 PM (#6060011)
Players have wild swings in offensive numbers sometimes too. Players definitely have defensive slumps.


Yes, but it doesn't seem to be as frequent or random, just my reflection on browsing WAR though.
   893. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6060012)
Players have wild swings in offensive numbers sometimes too. Players definitely have defensive slumps.


But I'm not sure WAR is accurately tracking them.
   894. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 06, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6060014)
Some good banter here, a few thoughts of my own (mostly about Utley):

Utley - He doesn't have the recognition (SS, GG, ASG, MVP's) but is safely over 60WAR. I don;t want to say that's the in/out line, but any sportswriter worth their salt at least knows that's when serious candidates are showing up. Rolen's at 70, Vlad G was at 60WAR. Sosa's at 60WAR. Sheffield's at 60WAR. Ramirez is almost 70WAR. Kent is at 55WAR and many see him as close at the very least. Utley's close to 65WAR. He's 92-93% of Rolen without the recognition and Gold Gloves. Many less SABR inclined voters are now voting for Rolen, to the point where he seems like he will be inducted in 2023. Utley may not get in, but he's going to get 5% or more easily, given his opening ballot won't be as deep as 2018's was (possibly the deepest other than 2014/15).

Utley also has the good at many things, didn't stand out issue. He doesn't have a super high average, or even walk totals. But he managed to get plunked 20 times a year to add to his OBP. He was a 30 homer guy for 5 years, played Gold Glove caliber defense, even if Orlando Hudson and Brandon Phillips were out there winning deserved (and undeserved Gold Gloves). He was a heads up base runner, but didn't steal many bases but when he did so it was at a very high percentage. He started late and then was injured a whole bunch between 2010-12 when by rate he was still a 6WAR player, but couldn't stay healthy enough to have a season over 4 (or under 3). 2007 season was his best by rate but missed 30 games, otherwise could've had a WAR pushing 10.

It's a combo Walker and Rolen case, with even more brevity but he's still deserving and I would vote for him in 2024.

Grich, Whitaker, Dahlen - If we could get all three of these guys in - by most major metrics, they're not just 10% over the line, they're a full 30% and fairly egregious omissions at this point (to say nothing Bonds, Clemens and Schilling (for all his faults)).

Would love to see Hernandez in as well, definitely deserving, but him or Jones first - whatever can get both of them in fastest is my preference.

Beltran - interesting case - would've thought he was a lock for 80-85% when he retired, now I'd imagine he's closer to 60%. He'll get in, but will take longer than it should've.

K-Rod - he was great for a few years and has saves in spades. Otherwise, he's in that class with Nathan and Papelbon (and Jansen, Kimbrel and Chapman, but they have time to add stats). He shouldn't get in, but at this point wouldn't be shocked if he survived a couple ballots.
   895. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6060030)
is it, though?


Yeah, it really is. 1980-1989, a full decade of his prime he averaged 142 games and 604 PA's, but that includes the strike shortened 1981. Average for the other 9 seasons, which still includes an injury shortened 1988, and he averages 145 games and 629 PA's. That's full time play, and he put up a 114 OPS+ at a time when an average 2B was putting up a 97 or 98. He had 3 of the top 15 seasons by OPS+ (at least 60% of games at 2B and qualified for batting title) and 2 of those seasons were over 700 PA's 3rd most and 12th most PA's. For the decade he was basically dead even with Sandberg 114 to 112 in OPS+. If you look at just 1982 (when Sandberg came up) to 1989 Sandberg has 287 more PA's, but that's nearly entirely due to the injury shortened 1988 when Whitaker had only 477 PA's. EDIT: And Whitaker's OPS+ goes up to 119. He wasn't being platooned in any extensive way in his prime.

And anyway, who would quibble about getting roughly 5 WAR per season from a 2B in his age 32-36 seasons just because he didn't start very often against LH pitching?
   896. TJ Posted: January 06, 2022 at 05:32 PM (#6060036)
Vizquel loses another vote (now -38). The Tracker has him at 12 votes so far, needing another 8 to stay on the ballot. Does he get the 8?
   897. Ron J Posted: January 06, 2022 at 06:27 PM (#6060049)
#892 Been a few years since I checked but what I saw when I tested year to year variation of the modern defensive methods was a low enough variation to be confident that it's a valid look, but a high enough variation that it's not the full picture.

The standard error of the best offensive metrics is in the range of 5 runs for a full time regular. I got it a little higher (on a smaller best to worst spread) on defense.

The puzzler remains how to handle discretionary plays.
   898. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2022 at 07:10 PM (#6060063)
Fair enough.

Still waiting for the zone info 1B vs. 3B. [Note my google-fu isn't the best]
   899. The Duke Posted: January 06, 2022 at 07:18 PM (#6060065)
I gotta think Hernandez will get in using the Jim Kaat, Joe Torre, Buck O’Neill backstage pass. He’s been part of one of the best broadcasting teams for a long time and even has the legendary Seinfeld bits to help him. A “lifetime” in baseball always helps.

He made the Cardinals Hall of Fame last year and was over the moon happy. I think he thought the team still held the cocaine stuff against him - his was a great induction.
   900. alilisd Posted: January 06, 2022 at 07:44 PM (#6060073)
He made the Cardinals Hall of Fame last year and was over the moon happy. I think he thought the team still held the cocaine stuff against him - his was a great induction.


Nice!
Page 9 of 12 pages ‹ First  < 7 8 9 10 11 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Newsblog2022 NBA Playoffs thread
(3737 - 10:13am, Jul 02)
Last: MHS

NewsblogNationals burned by quirky 'fourth-out rule' as Pirates score despite lining into inning-ending double play
(59 - 9:57am, Jul 02)
Last: Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome

NewsblogYankees looking for OF help with Aaron Hicks, Joey Gallo struggling
(15 - 9:49am, Jul 02)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogIndependence Day Weekend OMNICHATTER, for July 1-4, 2022
(16 - 9:34am, Jul 02)
Last: Dillon Gee Escape Plan

NewsblogOutfielder Austin Hays becomes sixth player in Baltimore Orioles history to hit for cycle
(3 - 2:04am, Jul 02)
Last: FernandoPoplar

NewsblogWhy Juan Soto’s Reported Extension Offer Is Not As Outlandish As It Might Seem
(20 - 11:54pm, Jul 01)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogWhen do the Tigers and Royals have to admit that 'rebuilding' has turned into plain old losing?
(22 - 9:37pm, Jul 01)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogRanking the home uniforms of all 30 MLB teams
(24 - 9:29pm, Jul 01)
Last: Joey Joe Joe Junior Felix Jose Cruz Junior

Sox TherapyHey Now
(15 - 9:06pm, Jul 01)
Last: Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful

NewsblogBoston media explodes after Red Sox blow it without unvaccinated closer Houck
(91 - 7:53pm, Jul 01)
Last: Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant

NewsblogRob Manfred wants you to know: He doesn't hate baseball, he wants to save it
(46 - 7:35pm, Jul 01)
Last: Doug Jones threw harder than me

Sox TherapyNow That's A Road Trip
(46 - 7:15pm, Jul 01)
Last: Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for Thursday, June 30, 2022
(16 - 4:47pm, Jul 01)
Last: Textbook Editor

NewsblogFrustrated Mike Trout Spots His Own Pitcher Tipping Pitches While Standing in Center Field
(56 - 1:54pm, Jul 01)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

NewsblogSt. Pete mayor reopens talks on future of Rays stadium site
(7 - 11:02am, Jul 01)
Last: Lassus

Page rendered in 0.8361 seconds
45 querie(s) executed