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Wednesday, November 10, 2021

A summary of the 2021 SB Nation off-season simulation

Each year I get 30 fans to “simulate” an off-season, working out trades and negotiating for free agents under “real-world” conditions. Here is this year’s results. You can also read team-by-team capsules for what they did.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 10, 2021 at 10:29 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: fantasy baseball

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   1. Mike Webber Posted: November 10, 2021 at 12:32 PM (#6052265)
Max I'm guessing you didn't run the Royals?

Trades
Traded Andrew Benintendi, Foster Griffin, and Emmanuel Rivera to the Braves for Will Smith and Kadon Morton
Traded Adalberto Mondesi to the Nationals for Victor Robles
Traded Mike Minor, Angel Zerpa, and Dylan Coleman to the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn and Andrew Dalquist
Traded hit Merrifield, Carlos Santana and $8 million to the Brewers for Keston Hiura and Max Lazar
Traded Jon Heasley to the Mariners for Mike Moustakas and $18 million

Benintendi for Will Smith - Grade F. Trading a 27-year old OF for a 32-year old closer that makes 2X as much? Also you're signing Duffy as a reliever? I'd way rather have Benintendi and Duffy than Will Smith and Duffy.

Adalberto for Victor Robles - Grade D-. With Michael A Taylor on the roster what's the point? Poor time to sell low on Adalberto. Robles

Minor for Vaughn - Grade A - Is Chicago giving up on Vaughn already, wow.

Merrifeld/Santana for Keston Hiura and guy that hasn't thrown a minor league pitch in two years. Grade D - I only make this trade if I'm sure I can fix Hiura who led the league in K's in 2020 and then increased his K rate 5% last year.

Minor leaguer for Moustakas and enough money to cover one of the 2 years left on his contract. Grade C. The issue with this one is will you (can you?) sit Moustakas on the bench/cut him if he is not good. As any Chiefs fan knows, if you give a coach Dan Sorenson, they might play Dan Sorenson. This is a good trade if you talk to Moose and make sure he knows he probably isn't a starter at least once Bobby Witt arrives and he is good with that. If he balks, then it's a pass.


Free agents
Signed Danny Duffy to a 2 year, $16 million deal
Signed Dee Strange-Gordon and Peter Kozma to minor league deals
Probable starting lineup   
C Salvador Perez      SP Brad Keller
1B Hunter Dozier      SP Carlos Hernandez
2B Keston Hiura       SP Brady Singer
SS Nicky Lopez        SP Daniel Lynch
3B Bobby Witt
Jr.    SP Kris Bubic
LF Andrew Vaughn      RP Scott Barlow
CF Victor Robles      RP  Jake Brentz
RF Kyle Isbel         RP Josh Staumont
DH MJ Melendez        RP Danny Duffy
                      RP Will Smith
C Cam Gallagher       RP Jake Junis
IF Peter Kozma        RP Kyle Zimmer
IF Mike Moustakas     RP Ronald Bolanos
OF Michael A
Taylor  RP Domingo Tapia
OF Edward Olivares 


So the Royals are starting Hunter Dozier at 1B over Andrew Vaughn? Yikes.

This seems like an off-season from a fan that is disappointed with Benintendi and Mondesi, doesn't realize Hunter Dozier should probably be cut, loves him some past their prime former Royals and had Andrew Vaughn fall into their lap.

Or it could be Dayton Moore pretending to be a fan running a simulation.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 10, 2021 at 12:37 PM (#6052269)
Nope. I don't get the reunions with Duffy or Moose. I do like getting Hiura and Vaughn though.
   3. cookiedabookie Posted: November 10, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6052287)
I really enjoyed the one year I participated in this exercise. At some point, it would be fun to do again
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2021 at 06:10 PM (#6052391)
I hope Hunter Dozier sends his agent (and Dayton Moore) a very nice Christmas present every year. A 28-yo with -2.7 career WAA, 1 career WAR signs a 4/$25 arb buyout contract. Then puts up a -2.5 WAR season.

These simulations always have some hilarious results. I've decided this should give us greater faith in humanity ... or at least the human beings that actually run ML teams. The Angels sign both Seager (10/$355) and Bryant (6/$210!!!)? Chris Taylor for 4/$96??? The Pirates sign Conforto? (It's a reasonable deal but the Pirates?)

The Angels did somehow manage to trade Rendon and a mere $38 M ... not only were able to dump his contract to the Astros but got back Cristian Javier. The Astros will still be paying Rendon 5/$140. The Angels meanwhile hand Rendon's contract to Bryant who, for all intents and purposes, is the same player, maybe a bit worse. From the Angels' perspective, it's 6/$248 for Bryant and Javier (plus whatever he eventually earns in arb) vs. 5/$188 for Rendon. Why the Astros would do that deal I have no idea -- Bregman to SS?

So I've already flagged the Bryant and Taylor contracts as too high (Taylor way too high). I don't think Starling Marte is gonna get 3/$75 (he might well deserve it), I assume Ray will get more than $112 (not sure he deserves more), I don't think Schwarber will get 5 years (I'm not sure he'd accept 5 years at that AAV either ... at the least, he'd want opt-outs), I think Iglesias beats 3/$36.

   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2021 at 06:35 PM (#6052393)
Meanwhile the Yanks signed no FAs. They traded Volpe and some other minors guys for Ketel Marte, apparently to play SS (he's been average there per TZ and DRS so not as crazy as it first sounded to me). They trade for Darvish, they dump Britton's contract (and their #12 prospect) on the Cubs for nothing in return. Their mock GM clearly doesn't have to deal with NY media.

The Dodgers don't do a lot -- re-sign Kershaw, sign Greinke, trade for Montas, trade Gonsolin (to the Cubs for Alcantara which is an odd trade).

My Cubs are probably right in spirit but over-do it. Basically we sign every injured/sucky bounce-back pitching candidate (Archer, Kluber, Paxton, Hand, Bundy, Colome) to 1-year (some with incentives) plus option deals along with Jansen (2/$21) along with the Britton and Gonsolin trades, we also eat Akiyama's contract. We trade away Hendricks, Contreras and Happ getting back Urquidy and what I assume are a half-dozen #10 prospects.** Exactly what the Cubs are gonna do with the entire field of MLB's #250-350 prospects remains a mystery. We end up with a $97M payroll, a pitching staff that might have won the pennant in 2018 and an offense probably no worse than the one we'll have. Solid tanking and eventual trades of any pitchers that are actually healthy.

Correction to #4: Astros would pay Rendon 5/$150.

** I didn't look them up, too many. Maybe there's an actual good prospect in there somewhere.
   6. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 10, 2021 at 07:24 PM (#6052397)
Their mock GM clearly doesn't have to deal with NY media.
+

Whereas, across the river, Walt will show how it's done.
   7. The Duke Posted: November 10, 2021 at 07:48 PM (#6052399)
The Cardinals signed nine free agents ! That’s a decade of effort for the current front office. I don’t think so. The concept that they would sign verlander to a two year deal after he has been QO’d is nonsensical - they hate losing picks
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 10, 2021 at 09:09 PM (#6052414)
Meanwhile the Yanks signed no FAs.

The Dodgers don't do a lot


Honestly I think those volunteers had a busy day of work IRL, lol.

The Yanks were in all the top guys, they just finished 2nd to a lot of other teams.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2021 at 10:50 PM (#6052435)
Whereas, across the river, Walt will show how it's done.

Didn't I mention I'll be working from home?

The Yanks were in all the top guys, they just finished 2nd to a lot of other teams.

That will go over well with the media ... :-)
   10. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6052437)
In seriousness, of course thanks to all the mock GMs who give us something to talk about for a day or two.
   11. base ball chick Posted: November 11, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6052560)
4. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2021 at 06:10 PM (#6052391)

The Angels did somehow manage to trade Rendon and a mere $38 M ... not only were able to dump his contract to the Astros but got back Cristian Javier. The Astros will still be paying Rendon 5/$140. The Angels meanwhile hand Rendon's contract to Bryant who, for all intents and purposes, is the same player, maybe a bit worse. From the Angels' perspective, it's 6/$248 for Bryant and Javier (plus whatever he eventually earns in arb) vs. 5/$188 for Rendon. Why the Astros would do that deal I have no idea -- Bregman to SS?


- srsly, WUT?

why would the astros want rendon? he's been hurt most of the past 2 years, he's gonna be 32 and the astros are gonna pay him 30+ mill a year? for FIVE more years???

REALLY???

and signing piece of shttt osuna again???
chas mccormick >>>>> carter kieboomn

they would trade 3 good players for willson contreras like WHY??? jose urquidy is a CHEAP 26 yo lefty pitcher and willson contreras is not a backup catcher (they got maldonado and he ain't leaving) AND he's expensive


they'd do better re-signing correa and keeping bregman at 3B (who by the way has not exactly been healthy his own self the past few years)

   12. base ball chick Posted: November 11, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6052561)
and signing piece of shttt osuna again???
chas mccormick >>>>> carter kieboomn

they would trade 3 good players for willson contreras like WHY??? jose urquidy is a CHEAP 26 yo lefty pitcher and willson contreras is not a backup catcher (they got maldonado and he ain't leaving) AND he's expensive
   13. Darren Posted: November 11, 2021 at 04:49 PM (#6052568)
This is really fun, and I bet it's fun to take part in. It's easy to see how things can quickly get skewed if one GM does something goofy and it creates a cascade effect. But then again, that's probably true in the real world too!

For the Red Sox:
--I love getting ERod at 3/$50M
--okay with Schwarber at 5/$80M (though I don't think the Sox got to 5 years on a non-elite player)
--Vazquez for 2/$12M--I think I just pick up the option, but this is fine too.
--Kelly 2/$20M--No thanks. There's this love for Kelly in Red Sox nation that I don't understand.
--Oliver Drake for 2/$5M--Don't love the Drake, don't hate the Drake.

There's something goofy about the payroll calculations. These contracts should bring their CBT payroll to around $190-$200M for 2022 by my calculations, but this has them at $230M.

I'd forget about Kelly, grab another low-cost starter and another mid-range reliever.

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