AFL performances impacting rankings: Pipeline Inbox

Given that he was a Top 100 Prospect before his health issues, does Orioles outfielder Heston Kjerstad’s solid 2022 season and great AFL performance get him back into the Top 100 conversation?—Chris W., Harrisburg, Pa.

I always caution about reading too much into Fall League performance because it’s a small sample and the hitters are significantly better than the pitchers. In Kjerstad’s case, I’ll make an exception. Because he came down with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart, he didn’t make his pro debut until two years after the Orioles made him the No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft.

Kjerstad faced better arms than he ever had before in the AFL and won MVP honors while hitting .357/.385/.622 and leading the developmental circuit in hits (35), doubles (nine), extra-base hits (15) and total bases (61). He offers big left-handed power and while his K/BB ratio was 31/5 in 104 plate appearances, scouts believe that didn’t reflect any flaws with his swing or pitch recognition. He’s not afraid to fall behind in the count while zeroing in on specific pitches and zones early in at-bats, and he can make some refinements to that approach.

One evaluator I spoke to thought Kjerstad was the best prospect in the AFL, ahead of even Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker, who ranks No. 6 on the Top 100. He was one of the top five prospects in the league and that definitely will put him in the Top 100 conversation when we update the list again in January.