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Wednesday, May 04, 2022

After Years of Struggle in San Diego, Eric Hosmer Is Suddenly Red Hot

Statcast-wise, Hosmer’s 87.1 mph average exit velocity is more than three ticks below last year’s average, placing him only in the 25th percentile, while his 6.3% barrel rate is in the 39th percentile; his 44.4% hard-hit rate is good for the 68th percentile. The contrast between those last two placements makes sense, as hard-hit rate includes all balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or more, many of which are routine groundouts with minimal (or even negative) launch angles, while barrel rate includes only balls with the launch angle/exit velo combos that produce an xBA of at least .500 and an xSLG of at least 1.500.

If there’s any surprise regarding Hosmer’s Statcast expected numbers, it’s not that he’s far ahead of them — the leaderboards are full of such hitters — it’s that his .310 xBA and .470 xSLG are still more than respectable even given his groundball-heavy ways. It’s not as though he’s tapping into the new market inefficiency by hitting the ball on the ground so often; major league hitters are batting .231 and slugging .252 on groundballs this year, numbers that are respectively eight and nine points below last year’s marks, and 15 and 16 points below those from 2015-21 combined.

So how is it that Hosmer is so productive given the extent to which he’s wearing out the dirt and the grass? For one thing, he’s pulling the ball more than ever; his 45.3% clip is over 11 points above his career mark and, seven points above his career high, set in 2011. He’s pulling the ball in the air more than ever as well, via fly balls and line drives, and good things tend to happen when you do that:

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 04, 2022 at 10:03 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: eric hosmer

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 04, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6075185)
Let's see ... he's batting 382 on a 426 BABIP. I'll go out on a limb and say that's not likely to continue. He's hitting 368 on GB. He's only hit 11 FBs (not including LDs, compared with 38 GB) and has HR'd on 3 of them. He's had two similar months in his career, both Julys. He's been terrible in June, consistently Hosmeresque in Aug. In short, he's clearly gonna challenge Brett's team record for BA in a year.
   2. SoSH U at work Posted: May 04, 2022 at 04:29 PM (#6075194)
In short, he's clearly gonna challenge Brett's team record for BA in a year.


Good thinking. Trade him back to KC when his value's highest.
   3. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: May 04, 2022 at 05:50 PM (#6075201)
In short, he's clearly gonna challenge Brett's team record for BA in a year.


Brett Wallace did hit .302 for the Padres in 107 plate appearances in 2015, but that seems like a dubious team record.
   4. The Duke Posted: May 05, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6075403)
Guys who pound the ball into the ground hard are relatively more valuable, so he should add more value this year
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 05, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6075408)
Guys who pound the ball into the ground hard are relatively more valuable, so he should add more value this year

Wait, why? BA and SLG on GBs is still very low, as per the excerpt:

major league hitters are batting .231 and slugging .252 on groundballs this year, numbers that are respectively eight and nine points below last year’s marks, and 15 and 16 points below those from 2015-21 combined.
   6. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: May 05, 2022 at 07:20 PM (#6075429)
Wait, why?


Because Duke is a dumbass who makes stuff up. It's like 90% of his deal.

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