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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

AL ROY Alvarez unanimous, NL ROY Alonso 1 shy

One guy won the midsummer Home Run Derby, then became the first rookie to win the full-season home run derby outright. The other went third deck at Minute Maid Park amid compiling the highest OPS ever for a rookie with at least 300 trips to the plate.

What Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez did in 2019 was historic, and their efforts were rightly recognized Monday night with runaway wins in the National League and American League Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Alvarez was a unanimous selection in the AL (the 11th such selection in the history of this award), while Alonso was listed first on 29 of the 30 ballots in the NL.

“Holy expletive,” Alonso said with a laugh after the MLB Network made his selection official.

So, what’s next for the both of them?

QLE Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:15 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards and honors, pete alonso, rookie of the year, yordan alvarez

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:28 AM (#5900511)
Spot quiz: who had more WAR, Alvarez or Tatis, Jr? (They had about the same number of PA ... and yes I know they weren't competing.)

Who had more WAR, Alvarez or Tommy Edman?

Who had more WAR, me or Garrett Hampson? (And my rookie eligibility remains intact so be sure to put me high on your 2020 prospect lists)
   2. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 12, 2019 at 06:53 AM (#5900523)
Who had more WAR, Alvarez or Tommy Edman?

I swear this is the first time I have ever heard of Tommy Edman. That's really shocking because (like me) he's half-Asian and went to Stanford, which are two things that I'm a de facto fan of.
   3. . . . . . . Posted: November 12, 2019 at 07:54 AM (#5900524)
Yeah, but unlike you Stanford is proud of him.
   4. DanG Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:17 AM (#5900528)
Players with 50 HR and less than 6 WAR:

Player        WARHR OPSRfield  PA Year Age  Tm
Prince Fielder 3.6 50  157  
-15.0 681 2007  23 MIL
Sammy Sosa     4.8 63  151   
-0.8 712 1999  30 CHC
Pete Alonso    5.0 53  148   
-6.0 693 2019  24 NYM
Mark McGwire   5.1 58  170  
-10.2 657 1997  33 TOT
Mark McGwire   5.2 65  176   
-8.7 661 1999  35 STL
Ryan Howard    5.2 58  167   
-9.0 704 2006  26 PHI
Sammy Sosa     5.7 50  161   
-5.5 705 2000  31 CHC
David Ortiz    5.8 54  161    1.0 686 2006  30 BOS 
   5. Rally Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:34 AM (#5900530)
Without looking it up:

1. Tatis - seems like an easy call because he hit great as well and played shortstop
2. Edman - guessing the defense puts him over a DH
3. Davis - going with the zero WAR option
   6. RoyalFlush Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:55 AM (#5900584)
Not to piss on Alonso's parade, but I was glad to see Soroka get one first place vote. Given the current HR environment, his ability to keep the ball in the park last year was special.
   7. Karl from NY Posted: November 12, 2019 at 07:17 PM (#5900685)
Players with 50 HR and less than 6 WAR:


Question: does the current homer-happy environment mean that each HR is worth less WAR?

I would think so in the abstract - HR are worth less when there aren't as many baserunners, because the previous guy already hit a HR. Do the various incarnations of WAR account for component values that are variable depending on environment?
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:18 PM (#5900697)
there is a certain tangible value to offensive stats, there is a fuzzy value to defensive stat... so even though Edman had 120 ops+ as a borderline gold glove quality middle infielder, I'll take the guy with the 173 ops+.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:20 PM (#5900699)
Although the Cardinals also had a starting rookie pitcher post a 128 era+ over 174 innings and is only rated as a 2.0 war player (starting pitchers are getting jacked by war) .... at no point is a 128 era+ over 170 innings less than a 3 war player in real life... if not a 4 war player.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:26 PM (#5900702)
Question: does the current homer-happy environment mean that each HR is worth less WAR?


only if the runs go up.. more homeruns doesn't matter, it's run scoring environment that matters... so in 1996 a homerun is worth considerably less than 1968... this year we were at 4.85 runs a game or so... that is good, but in 1996 we were at 5.04 runs a game. A homerun then was worth less.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:28 PM (#5900704)
Now it's possible that with the rise of the three true outcomes, they'll have to re-do the matrix for runs expectancy... technically they do it every year, but with it starting to be a bit more extreme, it might need a serious re-look.
   12. Baldrick Posted: November 12, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5900724)
Although the Cardinals also had a starting rookie pitcher post a 128 era+ over 174 innings and is only rated as a 2.0 war player (starting pitchers are getting jacked by war) .... at no point is a 128 era+ over 170 innings less than a 3 war player in real life... if not a 4 war player.

He gave up 15 unearned runs. Wainwright, pitching for the same team in the same number of innings, managed the same WAR with a 102 ERA+.
   13. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 13, 2019 at 01:05 AM (#5900738)
Sigh. The Astros really have a way of acquiring star first basemen with no service time in exchange for mediocre relievers.
   14. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 13, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5900771)
Yeah, but unlike you Stanford is proud of him.

No, I'm proud of him too!
   15. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2019 at 12:19 AM (#5901019)
so even though Edman had 120 ops+ as a borderline gold glove quality middle infielder, I'll take the guy with the 173 ops+.

As would every sane person on the planet ... but it was an entertaining comparison.

only if the runs go up.. more homeruns doesn't matter, it's run scoring environment that matters... so in 1996 a homerun is worth considerably less than 1968... this year we were at 4.85 runs a game or so... that is good, but in 1996 we were at 5.04 runs a game. A homerun then was worth less.

I think the difference in overall run-scoring environment is primarily handled through the RAA to WAA conversion (this is league-specific not MLB-wide though). For example, in 1996, Bagwell got 5.4 WAA out of 59 RAA which is 10.9 RAA per win. Alonso got 2.9 WAA out of 32 RAA Which is 11.0 per win. Back in 1976, Schmidt got 5.9 WAA out of just 54 RAA which is about 9.2 RAA per WAA.

Here is a relevant b-r page. Note that while the run values of other events are allowed to change over time and across leagues, HRs are not at 1.4 in every league/year (Sean???). I suppose it must be some sort of normalizing constant. Google and a fangraphs search let me down a bit but I think the wOBA calculations are the same (the difference in wOBA comes when wOBA gets scaled to that season's OBP). And here I learn that bWAR distinguishes the run values of infield vs outfield singles.

Anyway, the Rbat value of a HR appears constant but the Rbat value of other stuff varies then the RAA to WAA conversion varies based on overall run environment. Back to our comparison then, every 10 HRs is worth 14 runs and those 14 runs convert to 1.3 wins for Alonso, 1.3 wins for Bagwell 1996 and 1.5 wins for Schmidt 1976. Another way to look at it is that, in 1976, Joe Morgan generated "only" 57 Rbat while Bagwell 96 generated 64 and Yelich led the NL with 56 this year.

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