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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
One guy won the midsummer Home Run Derby, then became the first rookie to win the full-season home run derby outright. The other went third deck at Minute Maid Park amid compiling the highest OPS ever for a rookie with at least 300 trips to the plate.
What Mets first baseman Pete Alonso and Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez did in 2019 was historic, and their efforts were rightly recognized Monday night with runaway wins in the National League and American League Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
Alvarez was a unanimous selection in the AL (the 11th such selection in the history of this award), while Alonso was listed first on 29 of the 30 ballots in the NL.
“Holy expletive,” Alonso said with a laugh after the MLB Network made his selection official.
So, what’s next for the both of them?
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1. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:28 AM (#5900511)Who had more WAR, Alvarez or Tommy Edman?
Who had more WAR, me or Garrett Hampson? (And my rookie eligibility remains intact so be sure to put me high on your 2020 prospect lists)
I swear this is the first time I have ever heard of Tommy Edman. That's really shocking because (like me) he's half-Asian and went to Stanford, which are two things that I'm a de facto fan of.
Player WAR/ HR OPS+ Rfield PA Year Age Tm
Prince Fielder 3.6 50 157 -15.0 681 2007 23 MIL
Sammy Sosa 4.8 63 151 -0.8 712 1999 30 CHC
Pete Alonso 5.0 53 148 -6.0 693 2019 24 NYM
Mark McGwire 5.1 58 170 -10.2 657 1997 33 TOT
Mark McGwire 5.2 65 176 -8.7 661 1999 35 STL
Ryan Howard 5.2 58 167 -9.0 704 2006 26 PHI
Sammy Sosa 5.7 50 161 -5.5 705 2000 31 CHC
David Ortiz 5.8 54 161 1.0 686 2006 30 BOS
1. Tatis - seems like an easy call because he hit great as well and played shortstop
2. Edman - guessing the defense puts him over a DH
3. Davis - going with the zero WAR option
Question: does the current homer-happy environment mean that each HR is worth less WAR?
I would think so in the abstract - HR are worth less when there aren't as many baserunners, because the previous guy already hit a HR. Do the various incarnations of WAR account for component values that are variable depending on environment?
only if the runs go up.. more homeruns doesn't matter, it's run scoring environment that matters... so in 1996 a homerun is worth considerably less than 1968... this year we were at 4.85 runs a game or so... that is good, but in 1996 we were at 5.04 runs a game. A homerun then was worth less.
He gave up 15 unearned runs. Wainwright, pitching for the same team in the same number of innings, managed the same WAR with a 102 ERA+.
No, I'm proud of him too!
As would every sane person on the planet ... but it was an entertaining comparison.
only if the runs go up.. more homeruns doesn't matter, it's run scoring environment that matters... so in 1996 a homerun is worth considerably less than 1968... this year we were at 4.85 runs a game or so... that is good, but in 1996 we were at 5.04 runs a game. A homerun then was worth less.
I think the difference in overall run-scoring environment is primarily handled through the RAA to WAA conversion (this is league-specific not MLB-wide though). For example, in 1996, Bagwell got 5.4 WAA out of 59 RAA which is 10.9 RAA per win. Alonso got 2.9 WAA out of 32 RAA Which is 11.0 per win. Back in 1976, Schmidt got 5.9 WAA out of just 54 RAA which is about 9.2 RAA per WAA.
Here is a relevant b-r page. Note that while the run values of other events are allowed to change over time and across leagues, HRs are not at 1.4 in every league/year (Sean???). I suppose it must be some sort of normalizing constant. Google and a fangraphs search let me down a bit but I think the wOBA calculations are the same (the difference in wOBA comes when wOBA gets scaled to that season's OBP). And here I learn that bWAR distinguishes the run values of infield vs outfield singles.
Anyway, the Rbat value of a HR appears constant but the Rbat value of other stuff varies then the RAA to WAA conversion varies based on overall run environment. Back to our comparison then, every 10 HRs is worth 14 runs and those 14 runs convert to 1.3 wins for Alonso, 1.3 wins for Bagwell 1996 and 1.5 wins for Schmidt 1976. Another way to look at it is that, in 1976, Joe Morgan generated "only" 57 Rbat while Bagwell 96 generated 64 and Yelich led the NL with 56 this year.
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