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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Amazin’ Avenue: Twitter / Kevin Burkhardt on Francoeur

Weeeeee…more fun than Beer Money bloopers!

A bright spot: the Francoeur for Church swap has been an early steal for the Mets. He has been terrific

If we put aside our general contention that Church is overall a better player than Francoeur (the statistical numbers bear this out), here are the two players’ slash lines with their new teams:

Francoeur: .298/.327/.442
Church: .278/.400/.444

If we blatantly disregard everything else, Francoeur does lead in homeruns 5-2, which I guess = early steal.

Repoz Posted: August 12, 2009 at 11:29 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: braves, mets

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1. Rowland Office Supplies Posted: August 12, 2009 at 11:55 AM (#3289952)

I can only conclude that Frenchy has the uncanny ability to cloud the minds of men.

2. BFFB

Posted: August 12, 2009 at 12:16 PM (#3289962)

Frqancoeur is really The Shadow?

3. Shalimar Posted: August 12, 2009 at 12:17 PM (#3289963)

Higher average, more HRs and more RBIs equals better player. Why are you looking at those fancy numbers when everyone knows walks are for wimps who don't have the guts to swing away?

4. frannyzoo Posted: August 12, 2009 at 12:24 PM (#3289967)

I wonder how much of this mania/anti-mania surrounding French Eye Chart could be avoided if he was ugly and/or not white. He's got a touch of the missing blond white girl about him, no doubt about it.

5. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: August 12, 2009 at 12:29 PM (#3289973)

In fairness to Frenchy, he's doing everything the Mets could have hoped for so far. The Mets fans in my office think he's doing great and are excited about him.

6. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 12, 2009 at 12:42 PM (#3289988)

In fairness to Frenchy, he's doing everything the Mets could have hoped for so far. The Mets fans in my office think he's doing great and are excited about him.

Which is bad news for the Mets, if this convinces them to run him out every day next year.

7. Zonk Names You Traitor Posted: August 12, 2009 at 12:53 PM (#3289993)

Which is bad news for the Mets, if this convinces them to run him out every day next year.

Shhhh!!!

Don't jinx it.

I, for one, welcome our new Francoeurian overlords - and hope Omar signs him to a juicy 5 year contract this offseason.

8. TedBerg

Posted: August 12, 2009 at 01:27 PM (#3290018)

The Mets hate adequate sample sizes.

9. wjones Posted: August 12, 2009 at 01:41 PM (#3290034)

Higher average, more HRs and more RBIs equals better player. Why are you looking at those fancy numbers when everyone knows walks are for wimps who don't have the guts to swing away?

I submit to you today that Jeff Francoeur is the bravest man in the world.

I wonder how much of this mania/anti-mania surrounding French Eye Chart could be avoided if he was ugly and/or not white. He's got a touch of the missing blond white girl about him, no doubt about it.

I know, and even my wife acknowledges that is a big thing with Frenchy. No one notices that his teeth are too large for his head.

10. Repoz

Posted: August 12, 2009 at 01:50 PM (#3290046)

even my wife acknowledges that is a big thing with Frenchy.

Watching Met game the other night...

Wife, walking by and sees Francoeur..."Who is THAT?!"

Me..."That's Frenchy Francoeur, the most overrated player in baseball"

Wife..."Overrated, my ass."

11. Maxwn Posted: August 12, 2009 at 01:51 PM (#3290048)

If this trade is a steal for the Mets, then it is one of the worst steals of all time. It is like stealing plague-infected rats from a science lab and then keeping them in your basement. Or your mom's basement, I guess I should say.

12. Ron Johnson Posted: August 12, 2009 at 01:54 PM (#3290057)

I submit to you today that Jeff Francoeur is the bravest man in the world.

"I no walk. He walk me" Oscar Azocar on his first major league walk.

He was probably right too. The guy who pulled it off (Vance Lovelace) walked 6 of the 17 batters he face (and hit one) in what was for some reason his last year in the majors. I guess there's really not much call for a LOWGY.

13. Zonk Names You Traitor Posted: August 12, 2009 at 01:58 PM (#3290061)

"I no walk. He walk me" Oscar Azocar on his first major league walk.

He was probably right too. The guy who pulled it off (Vance Lovelace) walked 6 of the 17 batters he face (and hit one) in what was for some reason his last year in the majors. I guess there's really not much call for a LOWGY.

This might be the first time I've heard Vance Lovelace mentioned without his main claim to fame (the centerpiece of the package that sent Ron Cey to Chicago).

14. Roberto Petagine Posted: August 12, 2009 at 02:06 PM (#3290072)

After yesterdays games:

Our Savior: 306 333 491 824 +114
Church : 298 429 474 902 +139

a steal indeed

15. JPWF13

Posted: August 12, 2009 at 02:23 PM (#3290088)

Our Savior: 306 333 491 824 +114

Has this been Frenchy's best 25 game span since his rookie year? Looking at his Splits, I'd say no, but close, July 2007 was a good month too.

MWE has said quite a few times that Frenchy = Jose Guillen
I could live with that if the Mets get the peak and someone else gets everything else.
I'd also take Garret Anderson' peak at this point

I don't think it is likely, but if Frenchy has rediscovered how to hit 20-25 homers, he might not suck (he still won't be "good", but I'd settle for not sucking.

Sure his walks are even lower than usual- but his Ks are down- if he keeps his Ks down, he can keep his batting average up, and if he can hit 20-25 homers a 100 OPS+ is within sight...

I think I'm working too hard at deluding myself

16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 12, 2009 at 02:31 PM (#3290104)

"If this trade is a steal for the Mets, then it is one of the worst steals of all time. It is like stealing plague-infected rats from a science lab and then keeping them in your basement. Or your mom's basement, I guess I should say."

Yeah, it's right up there with "The Ransom of Red Chief".

17. Maxwn Posted: August 12, 2009 at 02:40 PM (#3290114)

Yeah, it's right up there with "The Ransom of Red Chief".

That should be Francoeur's new nickname, Red Chief.

18. Maxwn Posted: August 12, 2009 at 02:41 PM (#3290116)

I think I'm working too hard at deluding myself

Yes, I recognize the symptoms from my own case. You should take two aspirin and lay down immediately.

19. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: August 12, 2009 at 03:26 PM (#3290187)

Church has been spellin mclouth in center this past week, something frenchy could never have done.

20. billyshears Posted: August 12, 2009 at 03:41 PM (#3290204)

Not to ruin the party or anything, but Francoeur has had 117 PAs for the Mets while Church has had 70 PAs for the Braves. Church's problem has always been that while he's pretty good, he has a platoon split and he gets broken, so he's not quite a full time player. Francoeur doesn't have those issues. Of course he has other issues, in that he generally sucks. Playing time has value though. I'm not sure that an .844 OPS in 70 PAs over 28 games is any more valuable than a .769 OPS in 117 PAs over 28 games.

21. HowardMegdal

Posted: August 12, 2009 at 03:44 PM (#3290209)

I think another issue people aren't talking about is that Francoeur mostly looks good because everyone else on the Mets is a terrible, terrible offensive player. So just hitting, even without walks, and hitting home runs, even only a few of them, makes Francoeur look like a great hitter right now.

It's 2 AM, and Mets fans want to go home with somebody.

22. DJ Endless Grudge Can Use Multiple Slurp Juices Posted: August 12, 2009 at 03:50 PM (#3290214)

Not to ruin the party or anything, but Francoeur has had 117 PAs for the Mets while Church has had 70 PAs for the Braves. Church's problem has always been that while he's pretty good, he has a platoon split and he gets broken, so he's not quite a full time player. Francoeur doesn't have those issues. Of course he has other issues, in that he generally sucks. Playing time has value though. I'm not sure that an .844 OPS in 70 PAs over 28 games is any more valuable than a .769 OPS in 117 PAs over 28 games.

This is essentially the problem that the replacement-level baseline is intended to solve. And, as of today, per Fangraphs, Church has 0.9 WAR with the Braves and Francouer has 0 WAR with the Mets.

23. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: August 12, 2009 at 03:57 PM (#3290221)

Church being a platoon player is a benefit to the Braves, as they have the perfect other half of the platoon in Matt Diaz. Francoeur is on a hot streak right now, but his continuing lack of walks means that he's unlikely to keep this improvement.

I hope the Mets keep him around.

24. twon8 Posted: August 12, 2009 at 03:58 PM (#3290223)

2009 Mets: making replacement level a step up.

25. billyshears Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:02 PM (#3290228)

This is essentially the problem that the replacement-level baseline is intended to solve. And, as of today, per Fangraphs, Church has 0.9 WAR with the Braves and Francouer has 0 WAR with the Mets.

It's very possible that I'm not up to date on the latest technology, but I'm not sure replacement level gets at the whole issue. Even if you assume you can get a replacement level player to take up the 47 PA gap, that's another player you need. This creates roster management issues. Keeping a viable caddy for Church means that you sacrifice the masher off the bench who can't really play defense, or you don't keep an extra reliever (god forbid any team find themselves short a reliever). Maybe WAR solves for this (though I have no idea how), but I didn't think it did.

26. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:11 PM (#3290241)

I think bs raises some good points--although that Church can play CF makes up some of the gap between him and Francoeur--but even you dock Church for his splits, the nicest thing you can say about the trade is that it has thus far been a wash. Calling it a steal for the Mets remains foolish at best.

27. Angel (Pagan) of Harlem Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:19 PM (#3290247)

Do you guys ever get tired of making the same Francoeur jokes over and over? Based on the number of Francoeur threads, I'm guessing you don't. But I figured I'd ask.

28. DJ Endless Grudge Can Use Multiple Slurp Juices Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:23 PM (#3290251)

It's very possible that I'm not up to date on the latest technology, but I'm not sure replacement level gets at the whole issue. Even if you assume you can get a replacement level player to take up the 47 PA gap, that's another player you need. This creates roster management issues. Keeping a viable caddy for Church means that you sacrifice the masher off the bench who can't really play defense, or you don't keep an extra reliever (god forbid any team find themselves short a reliever). Maybe WAR solves for this (though I have no idea how), but I didn't think it did.

This is one of those hypermarginal issues that I think is probably overblown. It's accounted for to the extent that rep-level is based upon observing the behavior of actual MLB teams, and so anything they have to account for is thus accounted for. In particular spots, over short periods of time, those assumptions may not hold.

That said - an arguement that having to carry around a replacement-level outfielder on a team is an inconvenience doesn't exactly help Francoeur out here, does it?

29. Maxwn Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:30 PM (#3290258)

That said - an arguement that having to carry around a replacement-level outfielder on a team is an inconvenience doesn't exactly help Francoeur out here, does it?

No.

30. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:37 PM (#3290266)

Do you guys ever get tired of making the same Francoeur jokes over and over? Based on the number of Francoeur threads, I'm guessing you don't. But I figured I'd ask.

Not as tired as i got seeing frenchy run out there day after day and sink my team's offense.

31. Maxwn Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:39 PM (#3290271)

The thing about Church's splits is especially irrelevant because Francoeur has basically the same type of splits as Church, only they are reversed because they are opposite handed. Francoeur has hit for a .711 OPS against RHP, while hitting lefties to the tune of an .800 OPS. Church has an OPS against lefties is .707 while his OPS against RHP is .821. It is especially silly because Church in his career has had over 75% of his PA against the pitchers that he hits well, while Francoeur has over 70% of his PA against the pitchers that have the platoon advantage on him.

Part of this is because Francoeur has been played every day, while Church has often been platooned, but another part of it is because RHP are more common than LHP. Everything you can say about Church and his platoon disadvantage applies equally to Francoeur, if not more so, only he has not been utilized that way.

32. Maxwn Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:41 PM (#3290276)

Just for reference, those are career splits in the previous post.

33. RJ in TO Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:51 PM (#3290286)

Do you guys ever get tired of making the same Francoeur jokes over and over? Based on the number of Francoeur threads, I'm guessing you don't. But I figured I'd ask.

Have you read his blog? How could anyone ever get tired of that?

34. Russlan is not Russian Posted: August 12, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3290301)

Church might be a better fit for Turner Field than he is for Citifield. It's one year and it's not like the Mets are hitting a lot of homers on the road but it seems that Citi it hurts guys who hit for power to right-center.

One thing that Frenchy hadn't shown for the Braves the last two years is power and that seems to be back so far for the Mets. There are only three players on the Mets that I don't surprise me when they hit a homer and Frenchy is one of them right now.

35. Sam M. Posted: August 12, 2009 at 05:21 PM (#3290351)

There are only three players on the Mets that I don't surprise me when they hit a homer and Frenchy is one of them right now.

Seeing as how I'm guessing the other two are Dave Kingman and Donn Clendenon, this does not bode well for the offense for the rest of 2009.

36. Shalimar Posted: August 12, 2009 at 05:24 PM (#3290354)

This might be the first time I've heard Vance Lovelace mentioned without his main claim to fame (the centerpiece of the package that sent Ron Cey to Chicago).

I didn't remember that, but I do remember Lovelace from Dollar Sign On The Muscle. It's been at least 15 years since I read it though so I can't recall how important he was to the book.

37. Greg Goosen at 30 Posted: August 12, 2009 at 06:40 PM (#3290491)

Francoeur has manage to avoid saying stupid things about Jews in the afterlike unlike Church. He has not gotten in Manuel's doghouse unlike Church. In the spring Manuel wanted to bench Church to play Murphy in the outfield. Francoeur hasn't done as badly with the Mets as he did in Atlanta. Is there any other pro-Frenchy points, I'm grasping?
Come November if the Mets replace Minaya with John Rico, they will use Rico's recommendation on this "steal" to justify the move.

38. Angel (Pagan) of Harlem Posted: August 12, 2009 at 07:04 PM (#3290552)

Two years ago Francoeur had a 103 OPS+. Is it that hard to believe he can be that guy again? Yes, he'd still be overhyped and eventually overpaid for dumb reasons, but at least he wouldn't be a complete sinkhole. I'm sorry, I just don't think it's that far-fetched to believe he could again be an average player again. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be on it. But stranger things have happened.

39. flournoy Posted: August 12, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3290572)

As far as Francoeur is concerned, two years ago he was a superstar, and for the last year and a half, he's been merely average.

40. Jeff K. Posted: August 12, 2009 at 08:07 PM (#3290666)

He's got a touch of the missing blond white girl

That's multiple felonies.

41. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 12, 2009 at 08:24 PM (#3290700)

"I didn't remember that, but I do remember Lovelace from Dollar Sign On The Muscle. It's been at least 15 years since I read it though so I can't recall how important he was to the book."

IIRC, he's discussed a fair bit in the chapter about the Phillies' draft room.

42. haven Posted: August 13, 2009 at 12:33 AM (#3291026)

It is like stealing plague-infected rats from a science lab and then keeping them in your basement. Or your mom's basement, I guess I should say.

No. Those that like Church live in their Mom's basement. Those that like Francoeur live in million dollar homes (that may or may not be in foreclosure).

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