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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, April 01, 2023An MLB owner told Rob Manfred ‘analytics is an arms race to nowhere.’ The commissioner agrees [$]The Athletic Sub required.
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: April 01, 2023 at 10:04 AM | 81 comment(s)
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1. kcgard2 Posted: April 01, 2023 at 01:03 PM (#6122146)The key to success in business remain the same they always have been: develop a product with barriers to entry, get contracts with a government agency (preferably no bid), do business with the Saudis, superior customer satisfaction, hold onto your top 10% of employees at any cost and ruthlessly eliminate the non-performers, continuous improvement and be well capitalized.
The MLB teams that fail often fail because their fans don't respond to the team or money issues. Analytics has rightfully been identified as a customer satisfaction killer
I'm waiting for the saudis to show up and shake things up.
LIV Baseball?
If that's the case, there will be a few teams that will exploit this sooner and better than the rest, and for a couple of years, that could be a pretty big advantage. One example for my favorite team, the Red Sox, is that Chaim Bloom acquired David Hamilton from the Brewers before last season. The trade was largely panned (it was Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee for Hamilton, another mid-level prospect Alex Binelas, and the beloved, expensive, and cooked Jackie Bradley Jr). Bradley was awful, neither prospect lit the world on fire in 2022, and the team had no right fielder last year.
Anyway, Hamilton is absurdly good at stealing bases - which is not the same thing as being absurdly fast. He led organized baseball in SBs last year, stealing 70 in 78 attempts. In college, he stole 45 bases...in 45 attempts. In the minors thus far, he is 122-for 139. He's in AAA right now, and he plays some 2B and SS (both probably good enough to be a legit utility guy). If he can get on base at all, he'd be a valuable role player for the team...especially if he was stealing 92% of his attempts on high volume before the changes.
Anyway, if a few teams in 2023 end up exploiting this advantage to great effect, then that's an example of what can supplant the classic "sabermetric" advantage that turned Billy Beane into a Brad Pitt character.
But if he wants to go back to that world...
The single worst modern change in baseball, IMHO, is the ultraspecialization of pitchers and the endless reliever parade. But that's more a Tony LaRussa thing than an analytics thing.
2. I agree that, like every other innovation in life, there are diminishing returns to "analytics." Back in the early days of "scouts vs nerds" I opined that hiring your first few nerds was probably much better than hiring a few more scouts but that you'd quickly hit the point where you don't need any more nerds. I was at least somewhat wrong on that front since I didn't see statcast and such detailed pitch data on the horizon but still -- 75 analysts? doing what?
3. Is this more senior owner the owner of the Yanks or the Pirates? I doubt either one understands analytics but one of them understands winning. Anyway, once the Dodgers stop producing prospects, once the Rays stop fielding good teams, etc. I'll start believing this stuff is now so marginal it doesn't matter.
4. But yes, entertain me. If more SBs bring more eyeballs (I have my doubts) then you want more SBs in your game. I'm guessing the best way to find those SBs will be ... analytics. And the value of a SB (and the cost of a CS) haven't changed, what presumably has changed is the success rate. But the 220 hitter with no power, no patience and good speed still ain't worth a damn.
5. In short, a big part of the analytics "revolution" was "stop doing stupid stuff, here's the evidence it's stupid." Some folks (not around here) seem to think baseball should be a Farrelly Bros movie and the more stupid the better. You want more stupid stuff then, indeed, change the rules/dimensions of the game so that what was stupid is now smart (or at least break-even).
and if the changes are effective, then at that point there's hope for even more improvement.
heck, at some point down the road, the game might be SO entertaining that I'll even resume watching their commercials - instead of letting myself get 30 minutes behind the live feed, then catch up on every pitch in 15 minutes (tops) by FFing commercials and dead time, which what I was doing the last several years.
:)
Sure, but Manfred said on opening ####### day that he hopes the umpires will ignore the pitch clock in late and close situations.
Maybe they'll get rid of the ghost runner if the trend continues. Of all the rule "innovations" (as opposed to strategy changes), that's the phoniest.
people ain't no good.
These people are not smart enough to have opinions.
And suppose you made it 10 players. Fine, then the active squad will be 9 position players, a C, the SP and 5 relievers with some poor AAAA schlub getting lit up for 5 innings because the manager doesn't want to waste his closer.
They already limit you to 13 pitchers on the roster, I don't see why you couldn't just further reduce the limit of active pitchers on gameday.
how does it make base stealing easier? I dont get it. Its what 4"? These guys are moving 28'/sec. Thats approx. 1/100 of a second difference in the time they travel. You're never gonna see that show up as a statistical uptick.
well how does that work exactly? You could limit them to say 6 active pitchers, and then 3 or 4 or 5 of them would still get into the game right? How would that limit the number of pitching changes exactly? I dont follow.
Yes what baseball needs now is a new generation of Matty Alous and Brett Butlers to bring the fans back to the stadium.
Sorry. I agree with much of what you're saying there but that statement was a little bit out of whack with the rest of the suggestions which seem obvious and also have approval of most/many primates. Cut down on TTO baseball, sure but do we really need small ball? I dont see it.
Moreover, we're talking about baseball having many at least 4 or 5 significant changes in the last couple of years. You've got to give it time to sink in and see where all this is going. I think making even more sweeping changes without seeing where its going would not be good. Maybe that's what I am criticizing, you seem acknowledge they've made all these changes and you're not even letting it play out.
Granted it will be hard to tease out how much of the effect is due to the base size vs the change in pickoff rules. But the difference between a fairly "easy" CS and a successful SB is definitely fractions of a second.
I suspect the new pickoff rules, as well as the pitch clock, are having a much bigger effect on the SB rates than the increase in the size of the bases.
The point is to make baseball tactically interesting again. If the infield has to make a choice as to whether to play in, and how much, that affects a lot more of the game - it make base-hits more likely, and incentives making contact early in the count, when the bunt is still an option. In a larger sense, you want a game where there is "more than one way to win". When tennis is all baseline power, ratings drop, because it just isn't as interesting to watch. When basketball is all chucking three's, or contrarily bruising at the glass, it's not as interesting to watch. Unless something is done that makes the discovery that "take and rake" provides the optimal way to approach an at-bat, then that's all you are going to see, and TTO-baseball will continue. More stolen-bases are great, but before that is true you have to have men on base. You saw that this weekend, at least with the Giants and Yankees, where there were umpteen strikeouts and most of the runs were scored by (monster, in Giancarlo Stanton's case) home-runs. That makes for a boring product - the process of pitching and batting largely becomes an exercise in discovering the statistical likelihood of a home-run. If you take a random non-baseball person with any brains to a baseball game right now they figure out there spectator is there, primarily, to watch the generation of statistics for home runs, with the randomness inherent in the process largely responsible for the final win/loss result.
They banned the shift and put in the ghost runner, which seems counterproductive to this.
Though having said that, maybe the distinctions that seemed big to us in the 1970s and '80s weren't. The span of park factors in 2022 went from 113/115 (batter/pitcher) in Coors to 92/92 in Petco. Go back to 1977, and it was 112/114 (Fulton County) to 89/91 (also San Diego). But it at least used to seem as if certain parks favored certain styles of play. There have been parks, historically, where you just gave up thinking about home runs. Griffith Stadium in Washington might see a third of the HR that were hit in Senators road games.
So maybe it's a small factor but one that could be mildly entertaining. It seems today that teams adopt the same tactics no matter where they play (throw hard, swing hard) but maybe I'm overstating that, too.
Yes, but that only tells us how hard it was to score*, not necessarily what it took to do it. A deep park with super fast artificial turf might be really difficult to hit home runs in compared with Fenway, but you could still build an offense on guys who can hit it into the gaps and run.
The 1982 Cards were last in HRs and fifth in runs in the NL. The 1985 Cards were 11th in dingers and first in runs scored. I can't imagine you'd find anything close to that in the last 10 years.
* More accurately, it just tells us how many runs were scored there. That it matches up with actual difficulty is assumed but not guaranteed.
Undoubtedly both. More balls would have to fall in because there's simply more ground to cover. But some balls hit today that go out would have been caught if the fences were further back.
The difference is that in real businesses the product gets better and better for the consumer. A 2022 car is massively better than a 1982 car.
Baseball is a zero sum game in terms of winning, and the product has actually gotten far worse due to analytics. 1982 baseball was better than 2022 baseball.
Well, the customers have spoken. All they seem to care about is the cheapest fares.
Doesn't this have the causality backwards? They went to 26 because relievers were already soaking up so much of the roster?
I would love to see the end of the "parade of relievers" version of baseball. I would be happy to see people no longer remember what LOOGY means. Games would move faster, and pitchers who knew they had to last a bit longer would be great, whether it is through limits on relievers on the roster, or minimum batters-faced rules. If the current rule changes work out, I can see Baseball being more willing to tinker, like the other sports are. [Though getting rid of the phantom runner would also be at the top of my wish list -- there is tinkering, and there is abomination]
As to Home Runs, that is a matter of taste. I think the numbers are still too high from historical norms -- I would like to see it below 1 per team game again, so it is something special.
Yeah. Add a quarter-inch of circumference and a quarter-ounce of weight, and you fix so much of what's wrong with baseball today. They'll never do it - the pitchers would b*tch holy hell, they'll get laughed at for playing softball, and MLB wants the dingers for casual fans anyway - but that's the real answer.
The real reason they went to 26 is because the union always wants more jobs and that was an easy concession for the owners. It was the union's price for limiting the number of pitcher spots to 13.
The active pitcher roster is already effectively limited to 9 because there are 4 SPs not getting into the game. For the most part, at least 2-3 of yesterday's relievers will only be used as a last resort, so you're probably down to 6-7.
Sure, you can do all sorts of things. But if your goal is "no more than 4 pitchers in a 9-inning game" then pass a rule that says "barring injury, no more than 4 pitchers in the first 9 innings and no more than 1 per inning after that." That still allows the manager to decide who those 4 pitchers are based on the actual context of the game rather than decide beforehand that today is the day some roster fodder gets a go. If you want to get rid of mid-inning changes (other than replacing the SP) then pass a rule to that effect. You don't need a Rube Goldberg machine.
Good lord, no, this is the last thing they should be doing. Umpires should be enforcing the rules as written, not trying to guess when to give someone extra time because it's late in the game or important or something.
Yeah, this is exactly what Angel Hernandez needs.... encouragement from MLB to make close games all about his evenhanded discretion on when to apply the rules and when not to. What could possibly go wrong?
They banned the shift because it seemed aesthetically wrong and they didn't have any other good ideas, and they wanted to do something to increase BABIP. It is altogether obvious that they aren't geniuses, this is the kind of solutions you get in that case.
Again, they aren't geniuses. I am not a big critic of the ghost runner, however - it's one way to avoid 20-inning weekday games. In this I am in agreement with the overall goal of Manfred, et. al. - you are trying to create a product that is consistently a good experience for the spectator, so that they become repeat customers. I have, myself, been to many extra-inning games, including a 16-inning game a few years back. In the latter case I was lucky(?) to have gone myself, so I could make my own choice as to whether to stay or go - noting that all the concessions had closed up (including hot-chocolate on a cold fall evening) after the 9th inning. Many people had to leave without witnessing the end of the game. Some groups had to split up, with portions leaving early. By the time the game was over most public transit had ceased operations. How is that a good spectator experience? If one goes to just about ANY other spectator sport there is an attempt at least to make the contest conclude in a reasonable amount of time. The ghost runner is at least an attempt at this, if a clumsy one. Even then, this change might actually INCREASE tactical options, because, well, now you might decide to steal third base, or bunt the runner over, or? It's actually tactically more complex than what was happening before in extra-inning games, which largely was folks waiting around for reliever to mess up give up a solo homer.
If baseball is to survive, it must keep spectator experience first and foremost in it's considerations.
Not to single out you Doug (because I'm a big fan of the pitchers can't field bunts idea*), but can we please stop calling it a ghost runner? It's not only definitionally wrong; it's an affront to the beautiful tradition of the ghost runner.
* Though I'd expand it to include all batted ground balls.
I think that ship has sailed (sunk?).
Whatever it meant before, I have seen it so often that it now refers to what is, in effect, a running appearing out of nowhere on the base, without coming to the plate. That seems pretty spooky to me.
I don't care how damn futile it is, I'm not giving up. The ghost runner has a glorious tradition in childhood base and ball sports. It is used when you've earned a place on the bases but don't have enough players to fill that spot. The runner exists in spirit only. Here, you didn't earn the spot on the bases, but you're sticking some soulless body out there anyway. So, ghost runner means the exact opposite of what the Manfred Man is.
Using "ghost runner" to describe Rob's Zombie is blasphemous. And even if this proper usage can't make a dent elsewhere (and it can't), the last of the thinking fans occupying this place ought to do better.
it's a tribute if you like the rule, and an epithet if you don't.
Tried, and I can’t. Closest I get is 14 years ago, 2009 Angels. 2nd in runs, 9th in homers. They hit .285 as a team. That is unfathomable just a decade and a half later.
That was a fun team.
This is what I learned:
From home to first, the 90 feet is measured from the back tip of home plate to the back corner of first base, meaning that, for a base that is three inches longer on each edge, first base is now 3 inches closer to home than it was last year (same goes for third base to home plate). This suggests to me that there will be more safe calls at first on bang-bang plays that would have been outs in years past.
First to second (and second to third): the 90 feet is measured from the exact center of second base to the back corner of the other base, meaning second base is 1-1/2 inches closer to each base than before---but first and third are each three inches closer to second, so the net reduction between the infield bases is 4-1/2 inches. Definitely seems like a significant distance after years of watching guys being out (or safe) by inches.
I also learned that, based on the above information, if you draw a line around the outside edges of the bases and home plate, you do not get a perfect square (or diamond); home, first and third have their back corners tucked into a corner of the "square," whereas second base extends beyond the "corner" as its exact center (and not its back corner) is placed at the corner of the square. So the baseline from first to second is more like a 90.5-degree angle than a 90-degree angle relative to the first-base line.
Has anyone split out SB success rates on attempts before and after two pickoffs yet? The sample size is probably currently too small to say definitively, but comparison of attempts before the two pickoffs with previous years will probably be instructive.
Are base stealers even making the attempts before two pickoffs in any great number? Would the new tactic not be to try to draw pickoff attempts, then try to steal when you have?
Back in the day, the game ended when the sun went down. It was simple, if slightly subjective.
I'd prefer a rule where after 9 innings, you start a 30-minute clock. When the clock expires, finish the inning, and the game ends then.
This was changed with the new rule - the outer corner of second base is now at the tip of the 90-foot square, so all the bases do now form a perfect square/diamond. The reduction between 1st and 2nd bases is actually more than 4.5 inches thanks to the center of second base shifting inwards, it's more like 5.5.
The lopsided diamond came about because first and third bases were also originally centered on the 90-foot corner, but that caused problems with judging fair/foul for balls that hit the bag, so (in the early 1900s) those bases were moved to be entirely in fair territory, but second base was never moved, until now.
Thanks for the clarification, KFNY, I must have been looking at out-of-date web pages.
Putting the corner of 2b into the corner of the square (rather than centering the base on the corner point) means that the distances between bases are now 6 inches less than last year. Again, that seems pretty significant to me.
Ghost however comes to the conversation more intuitively, since you feel like the expectation for a ghost runner is to score, and that's what the extra-innings guy is designed to do; a zombie feels like it's supposed to get killed off, which isn't the intent.
Manfred Man is cute, but veers off away from the discussion, it's a distraction that gets you thinking about the band and the song instead of the sport.
This year, it's [(90 feet) less (18 inches for the length of the first base) less (18 inches for the length of second base)] = 90 feet less 36 inches, or a difference of 13.5 inches!
Can this be right???? Not only are each of the bases bigger, by a cumulative 6 inches per pair of bases, but second base has been moved closer to 1B/3B by a distance of half a base.
I have a feeling I either erred somewhere obvious, or there's some geometric calculation (tangent? sine?) related to moving the centerpoint of 2B inwards that I didn't account for correctly. But still, moving second base in several inches seems to be as big a deal as the size increase.
EDIT: Hmmm, the MLB rules page, here, shows 2B as still being centered over the point of the square, and not moved in, as Karl suggest above. If the base is not moved in, the reduced distance between bases is 4.5 inches, but if it is moved in, then the reduction is more than a foot.
Zombie runner or Manfred Man it is, then.
Actually, at least in more modern times, the game was only suspended and finished at a later date, typically the next day. But if you want to go all Premiere League on us and have ties, that's an option. My feeling is that having a winner is a better spectator experience, if one can figure out an acceptable means of doing so. I actually think the Manfred Man is preferable to penalty kicks in soccer or hockey. An alternative and perhaps more interesting method, similar to what has also been tried in hockey, is to take away one or more fielders, just as so many people have had to play "pickup" or other games with only 8 players. That will also incentivize contact. One could even try that if after 2 extra innings they take away another player, and you now have only 7 fielders, to "shift around" as you like.
I found one tantalizing article that reads as if written by an AI bot that describes the bases at Dodger Stadium being moved in this year (as well as being larger) for an overall reduction in the basepath of 13.5 inches:
In 2023, are MLB bases 4.5 inches closer to each other, or 13.5 inches closer to each other?
Home to First and Third to Home: 3" shorter distance
First to Second and Second to Third: 4.5" shorter distance
Section 3 of this MLB document detailing the 2023 rule changes has a graphic of these distances.
What is not in dispute is that the minor leagues used the larger bases AND the pulled-in second base last year, and that MLB adopted the larger bases this year... so why not the pulled-in second base as well, as claimed by Karl above in Comment 60?
And there is that weirdly written article I quoted in comment 64 (scroll down about 2/3 of the way)....
The data probably isn't enough due to a lack of attempts but we should have good idea on how much larger a lead gets after two pickoff attempts.
Keep the circumference the same and just add 1/4 ounce of weight.
And your linked article is spambot-written garbage. It has these glaringly wrong sentences that no human would write:
I'd linked it in another recent thread and missed your linking of it, too. Sorry.
In the diagram we have both linked, note the thin line going from base to base to base forming a diamond. What's key to them is that where they intersect indicates where measurements (of 90') are being made. So, for example, we all say, "It's 90 feet from home to first," but it's really 90' from the back of home to the back, on-the-line corner of first. That's a key visual distinction compared to the diagrams in the other, AI-ish article you linked.
First of all its not relevant. If I told you the moon was several feet closer to us, would it affect the travel time to the moon if the astronauts were moving slower on their descent?
if he's only moving 25 FPS and the bags are 4.5" closer that's .015 of a second. How much time DO YOU THINK the new distances are saving?
Second of all I dont think throwing yourself at the bag slows you down by much if at all.
But OK to be fair, runners are not moving at a consistent speed the whole time. They have to accelerate to high speed and sliding may slow them down a few FPS. WIth a lead I presume its 80 feet to second and it takes about a half second to start your move to second. So what how much time is 4" saving you?
But I think the real reason for increasing the size of the bases is that: There were a lot of stolen bases that were overturned on replay because the runner's foot left the back momentarily after he had reached it. But the bases are, I understand, not only larger, but the profile is flatter (as a result of being larger). That probably makes it less likely for the runner's foot/hand to bounce off the bag.
That seems extreme to me. I'd prefer that replay not be able to be used* to determine if a player lost contact with the bag. If the umpire doesn't notice it on the field, then it can't be reviewed.
*I'd really prefer replay not exist, but that's not going to happen.
In a pure physics sense there is no way for a player to continue sliding on the bag if they don't break contact with it. It's just a matter of how small of a dimension you want to look at.
Right. You can define the bag as a column that extends up to infinity, once the bag is touched. So once the player touches the bag, he'd have to actually come off the bag in a horizontal direction to be called out.
You could, but what if he bounces up by six inches, where everybody can see it and would have been called out by the umpire watching the play? Why should that guy be safe? We don't allow for runners to overrun second and third, so maintaining some possession has always been part of the process.
I think what we want to get rid of is the tiny bit of lost contact that can't be seen by the naked eye, rather than all lost or directional contact. It seems allowing any lost contact seen by the ump to be called out, and not make it reviewable, better acheives those aims.
One of my biggest problems with tags now is that, because of replay, defenders hold the tag longer, possibly exerting force that leads to that loss of contact.
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